Core Viewpoint - The report from Western Securities indicates that the trend of residents "moving deposits" is expected to continue due to asset scarcity and the profit-making effect of the stock market, benefiting brokerage stocks significantly in the future [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Various funds are currently entering the market, with insurance companies increasing their stock allocation, and public fund issuance/net subscriptions showing signs of recovery [1]. - As of the end of Q2 2025, the balance of funds utilized by insurance companies reached 36.2 trillion yuan, with 3.1 trillion yuan invested in stocks, marking a 1.7 percentage point increase to 8.5% compared to Q2 2024 [1]. - The ratio of total market capitalization to residents' deposits has remained low at 0.59 as of July 2025, indicating significant room for growth compared to the peak in 2015 [2]. Group 2: Brokerage Stocks Performance - The liquidity index of A-shares has shown a rapid increase, correlating highly with the median rise of brokerage stocks, suggesting that brokerage stocks are likely to continue performing well as liquidity improves [3]. - Since the transition from bear to bull market on July 10, 2024, brokerage stocks have risen by 74% as of August 31, 2024, indicating strong potential for further gains if resident funds continue to flow into the market [3]. Group 3: Trading Activity Indicators - Historical analysis shows that the maximum turnover rate of the Wind All A index can serve as a synchronous indicator for the peak of brokerage stocks, with the highest turnover rate recorded at 4.21% during July to November 2024 [4]. - The maximum turnover rate observed since the rise of brokerage stocks this year was 2.82%, occurring on August 27, suggesting that there is still potential for turnover rates to increase further under the current favorable market conditions [4].

记者丨孙永乐 编辑丨巫燕玲 视频编辑丨柳润瑛 8月市场行情火热，各大指数涨到"眩晕"，A股迎来"泼天的流量"，个人投资者跑步入场。 根据上交所官网最新数据，2025年8月A股新开户265万户，同比环比均有大幅增长。至此，今年前8个 月，A股新开户数合计已达到1721万户。 从结构上看，8月新开户中，个人投资者占到绝大多数，合计约264万户，机构投资者合计约1万户。结 合2024年以来开户数据看，8月单月265万户的开户规模高于去年10个月份，创下今年4月份以来的阶段 新高。 中国企业资本联盟副理事长柏文喜指出，个人投资者历来是A股边际增量资金的重要来源。本轮开户潮 是"赚钱效应—政策催化—资产荒"共振的结果，短期内将为A股提供充沛的增量资金，支撑震荡上行趋 势。 8月A股新开户数激增165% 8月投资者新开户数出炉，A股市场又迎来了一波"开户潮"。 9月2日，上交所发布的新开户数据显示，今年8月A股新开户数达265.04万户，较今年7月的新开户数环 比增长34.97%，同比增长165.21%，远超去年同期水平。去年8月A股新开户数则为99.93万户。 结合2024年以来的开户数据看，8月单月265万户的开户规 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue a structural trend driven by liquidity, with a focus on fundamental clues and policy expectations [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The current market liquidity is relatively abundant, with ongoing "residential deposit migration" [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September is high, which, if realized, will help improve the global liquidity environment [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - With the completion of the 2025 mid-year report disclosures, there are structural allocation opportunities based on performance clues [1] - Sectors showing high prosperity or improving performance should be prioritized for investment [1]

Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market has recently experienced an upward trend despite weak economic data, driven by liquidity and risk premium factors[1] - The M1-M2 growth rate differential has widened, indicating that liquid funds are flowing into financial markets[1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and the stabilization of the RMB are key macroeconomic narratives influencing market dynamics[1] Group 2: Fund Inflows - Public and private fund participation in the current market rally is higher compared to previous trends, with the margin trading balance exceeding 2 trillion yuan[2] - Equity fund issuance has rebounded, with 1.7 trillion yuan issued from June to August, a nearly 300% increase year-on-year[2] - The net inflow into ETFs has been modest, with a notable shift towards Hong Kong stocks[2] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The A-share sentiment index reached 77.6 as of August 28, up 10.6 percentage points from August 22, indicating a recovery in market sentiment but not yet at extreme levels[3] - Structural overheating is observed in certain sectors, particularly TMT, suggesting potential opportunities for style rebalancing[3] Group 4: Economic Indicators - July economic data showed a decline in retail sales growth to 3.7%, with fixed asset investment and industrial output growth also slowing[1] - The decline in household deposits by 1.1 trillion yuan in July, alongside a 2.14 trillion yuan increase in non-bank deposits, suggests a significant shift of funds into financial markets[1] Group 5: Risks - Risks include potential economic downturns, the possibility of the Fed not cutting rates, and the slow pace of household deposit migration[3] - Overheating speculative sentiment in the market could lead to regulatory risks[3]

Group 1: Information Leverage - The rapid development of smartphones and social media enhances the speed of information dissemination, termed "information leverage," which amplifies individual investors' herd behavior[1] - The correlation coefficient between the Baidu search index for "bull market" and the Shanghai Composite Index is 0.33, indicating a positive relationship since 2011[3] - The Baidu search index for "account opening" has a correlation coefficient of 0.25 with the stock market, which is weaker than that of "bull market" but shows significant interest from individual investors[3] Group 2: Market Indicators - From September 2024 to July 2025, the monthly growth rate of new A-share accounts increased by 70.5%, indicating a strong trend of residents moving deposits into the stock market[4] - Cumulative net inflow into the stock market reached 744.85 billion yuan from February to May 2025, nearing the total for the entire year of 2024[4] - The financing buy-in ratio reached 11.6% of total trading volume on August 18, 2025, approaching the previous high of 11.9% in October 2024[4] Group 3: Fund Growth - Public funds saw a year-on-year growth of 57% for equity funds, 29% for bond funds, and 21% for money market funds in 2024, reflecting a shift in investment preferences[5] - The scale of private equity funds increased by 792.8 billion yuan in July 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 407.1%, indicating a strong inflow trend[5] - The total scale of private equity funds reached 5.9 trillion yuan by July 2025, showing a significant increase in high-net-worth client investments[5] Group 4: Risk Factors - Increased geopolitical and economic risks may lead investors to withdraw funds from the stock market to safer assets like gold and government bonds[8] - If foreign capital inflows into China's capital market are hindered, it could slow down the market's momentum and reduce the profit-making effect[8] - Structural adjustment policies may suppress residents' savings and investment sentiment, impacting market liquidity[8]

Group 1: Report's Core Viewpoints - The core contradiction of the current spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB is the rhythm control in the time dimension, not the direction choice. The trend of reducing the depreciation pressure of the RMB against the US dollar is certain, and the key variables are the specific timing of the appreciation start and the speed control during the process [2][31][34] - In the short - term, the RMB appreciation benefits from policy guidance and the A - share dividends brought by market sentiment repair. The continuous upward adjustment of the RMB central parity rate has significantly increased market trading activity, laying a kinetic energy foundation for the exchange rate to break through the previous narrow - range oscillation range [2][31] - In the short - term, the probability of the RMB exchange rate directly returning to the "6 era" is low. It is more likely to be in the process of gradually repairing to the reasonable equilibrium center, as the current appreciation depends more on policy guidance and short - term market sentiment support, and there is also policy - level rhythm control [3][31] - The current exchange rate market shows a differentiated feature of "increased volatility at the spot end and strengthened trend at the swap end". The spot exchange rate fluctuates widely under the influence of sentiment and short - term funds, while the swap end maintains a clear trend driven by interest rate parity repair and changes in the US - China interest rate spread [3][32] - From a policy perspective, the central bank may guide the exchange rate to return through a gradual "small - step and fast - run" operation. Before the exchange rate breaks through the 7.10 mark, the central bank may moderately slow down the upward adjustment speed of the central parity rate; if it breaks through 7.10 smoothly, the central bank may gradually increase the intervention [4][33] - In the medium - term, for the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB to achieve a trend - strengthening (including having the basis to return to the "6 era"), two key conditions are required: the US dollar index enters a clear downward channel, and the domestic economic fundamentals show substantial positive changes [7][34] Group 2: Driving Forces of RMB Appreciation - The Fed's monetary policy stance has shifted from hawkish to dovish, especially the loose signal released by Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting, creating a favorable external environment for the RMB [10] - Domestic exchange - rate stabilization policies have taken effect, and counter - cyclical adjustment tools have effectively curbed the RMB depreciation expectation and promoted the market's expectation of the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB to gradually tend to balance [10] - The recovery of the A - share market has driven up risk appetite and further stimulated the RMB's catch - up demand [10] Group 3: Role of Policy and Market in Exchange Rate Movement - Policy has played an important role in the process of the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB breaking below 7.15. The central parity rate has continuously released stable signals to guide market expectations. At the same time, market forces are also gradually strengthening, as evidenced by the re - emergence of the stock - exchange linkage effect [12] Group 4: Impact of Resident Deposit Movement - Resident deposit "movement" refers to the process of residents shifting a large amount of savings from the banking system to non - bank financial investment fields. It is mainly driven by income and expectations, and has multiple impacts on the financial market and economic structure [21] - Recently, the "migration" of resident deposits to non - bank financial institutions has provided continuous incremental funds for the stock market, helping to raise the reasonable valuation center of the A - share market and laying a solid foundation for the index - level market [22] - The "household deposit/total market value" chart has three core defects and cannot be used as direct evidence of resident deposit "movement". Although there is a lack of real - time data verification, potential capital inflows can provide marginal and phased support for the RMB exchange rate, but its sustainability and actual impact scale need to be rationally evaluated [27][30]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The risk appetite in the market has been restored. The stock index futures showed a V-shaped rebound and are in high-level oscillations. The stock index options suggest continuing to hold bull spreads. The bond market curve of treasury bond futures is steepening [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - The market outlook is oscillating with a bullish bias. The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts showed specific changes in basis, inter - period spreads, and positions. The market sentiment has been repaired, with a preference for technology - growth stocks. It is considered a bull - market oscillation, and dips are good opportunities to add positions. The recommended operation is to allocate IM long positions [7] Stock Index Options - The market outlook is oscillating. The option market turnover remained stable, and the mid - term sentiment is optimistic. The volatility of different varieties varies. It is recommended to continue holding bull spreads [2][8] Treasury Bond Futures - The market outlook is oscillating. The treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yield curve continued to steepen. The central bank's net injection supported the short - end of the bond market, while the long - end was under pressure. Short - term opportunities in long - end arbitrage and curve steepening can be focused on. Different strategies such as trend, hedging, basis, and curve strategies are recommended [8][9][10] 2. Economic Calendar - The economic calendar includes data from the US, China, and Japan, such as new home sales, house price indices, industrial enterprise profits, and unemployment claims [11] 3. Important Information and News Tracking - The government released an opinion on promoting high - quality urban development, covering housing construction, community improvement, and urban renewal. Multiple small and medium - sized banks have lowered RMB deposit rates, and the deposit rates are still under downward pressure. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is involved in international economic and trade negotiations [12][13][14] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions monitoring data for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content [15][19][31]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Shanghai's recent measures to stimulate the real estate market, which are seen as a significant move to support not only Shanghai but also the broader Yangtze River Delta region. The timing of these measures is crucial, as many potential homebuyers have paused their purchasing plans due to the rising stock market, indicating a shift in investment preferences from real estate to equities [2][4][8][10]. Summary by Sections Historical Context - The article draws parallels between the current economic environment and historical periods, specifically 1998-2001, 2012-2014, and 2020-2021, highlighting a recurring pattern where the stock market is stimulated first to create liquidity before directing funds into the real estate market [18][19][23][27]. - In each historical instance, the government has strategically used the stock market to bolster liquidity, which eventually leads to a surge in the real estate market, particularly in major cities like Shanghai [20][22][26][30]. Current Economic Dynamics - The article emphasizes that the current economic strategy involves first boosting the stock market (referred to as "大A") to enhance social liquidity, which will then be funneled into the real estate sector. This approach is seen as a necessary step to address the pressures on total demand [32][35]. - It is noted that the recent measures in Shanghai are not merely a response to immediate market conditions but are part of a broader strategy to reshape the valuation of RMB assets and stimulate domestic demand [43][44]. Investment Implications - The article suggests that the current situation presents a unique opportunity for investors in the real estate market, as the economic fundamentals are still declining while the stock market is performing well. This creates a favorable entry point for potential buyers before the market dynamics shift [44]. - It concludes that all asset price movements are aligned with macroeconomic policy goals, indicating that the valuation logic for RMB assets differs significantly from that of Western economies [45][46].

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 index futures experienced a sudden drop of over 1%, leading to a decline in major A-share indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by more than 60 points at one point, and nearly 4000 stocks declining across the market [1] - The bond futures market saw a rise in the afternoon, with the 30-year main contract increasing by 0.2%, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts rose by 0.03%, and the 2-year contract increased by 0.01% [1] Stock Performance - The market saw significant volatility on August 27, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 30 points in the afternoon, and the Hang Seng Index and ChiNext both declining by over 1% [2] - Despite the overall market downturn, the average stock price index increased, indicating that the gains were concentrated in high-priced stocks, such as Cambrian, which reached a price of 1464.98 yuan per share, surpassing Kweichow Moutai [2] - Cambrian's recent financial report showed a net profit margin of 38.6% for the second quarter, with expectations of revenue between 8 billion to 10 billion yuan this year and over 30 billion yuan next year [2] Investment Sentiment - Multiple securities firms have begun advocating for a "slow bull" market, emphasizing the importance of gradual growth rather than rapid increases, which could lead to unsustainable market conditions [3] - The current market dynamics differ from the 2014-2015 bull market, as the influx of funds is more aligned with debt-to-equity swaps rather than leveraging and speculative financing [3] - The long-term outlook suggests that a "slow bull" market could emerge through the integration of long-term capital and improved market ecology, which would allow for a more stable investment environment [3][4] Economic Context - The importance of the stock market in the economic cycle is increasing, with a shift in focus towards sustainable growth rather than short-term gains [5] - The transition of resident assets towards equity markets is seen as a necessary evolution, moving away from a resource allocation model that rewards all companies for the success of a few [5] - Short-term market fluctuations are expected as investors shift their focus from immediate momentum to mid-term value considerations, although significant adjustments are not anticipated in the near term [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant adjustment, with major indices declining sharply, influenced by external risks and signs of overheating in the market [1][3]. Market Adjustment - The FTSE China A50 index futures dropped over 1%, leading to a decline in A-share indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling more than 60 points at one point, and nearly 4,000 stocks declining across the market [1][3]. - The bond futures market saw a rise in 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year contracts, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [1]. Stock Performance - The trading session showed a divergence where the average stock price index increased, but the number of declining stocks exceeded 4,000, suggesting that gains were concentrated in high-priced stocks [5]. - Cambrian's stock price reached 1,464.98 yuan per share, surpassing Kweichow Moutai, becoming the most expensive stock in the A-share market, following a strong earnings report [5]. Analyst Insights - Analysts from various brokerages have begun advocating for a "slow bull" market, cautioning against a rapid rise similar to the 2014-2015 bull market, emphasizing the need for gradual and sustainable growth [6][7]. - The current market dynamics are driven more by debt-to-equity swaps rather than leveraged financing, indicating a higher demand for valuation and fundamental alignment [7]. Long-term Market Outlook - The long-term outlook suggests a shift towards a "slow bull" market model, influenced by structural changes in the stock market ecosystem, including the entry of long-term capital and the promotion of high-dividend value creation [8]. - A comprehensive bull market is expected to require further accumulation of positive factors, including improvements in the fundamental outlook and demand elasticity [8]. Investment Strategy - The importance of the stock market in the economic cycle is emphasized, with a call for a more refined resource allocation approach, moving away from broad-based rewards for all companies [9]. - Short-term market fluctuations are anticipated, with a shift in focus from immediate momentum to mid-term value considerations, which may amplify market volatility [9].