【行情跟踪】 机构认为，关税问题变量可能会在风险偏好层面对长端利率形成扰动；同时，7月政治局会议可能会成 为阶段性的政策观察期。预计短期债市难改小幅震荡格局，关注后续基本面数据的预期差影响。 新华财经北京6月12日电 债市周四（6月12日）重回偏弱整理，国债期货主力多数收跌，银行间现券收 益率振幅在0.5BP左右震荡；公开市场单日净回笼72亿元，短端资金利率普遍延续上行。 国债期货收盘多数下跌，30年期主力合约涨0.07%报120.490，10年期主力合约跌0.04%报108.995，5年 期主力合约跌0.04%报106.125，2年期主力合约跌0.01%报102.444。 国开行3年、7年期金融债中标收益率分别为1.5380%、1.6924%，全场倍数分别为1.42、5.86，边际倍数 分别为8.82、32.5。 【资金面】 公开市场方面，央行公告称，6月12日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1193亿元7天期逆回购操作，操 作利率1.40%，投标量1193亿元，中标量1193亿元。数据显示，当日1265亿元逆回购到期，据此计算， 单日净回笼72亿元。 银行间主要利率债收益率基本持稳、中短债偏弱，10年期国开 ...

据证券时报记者不完全统计，截至6月11日，山东、湖南、湖北等12个省份的部分地区已召开申报新型政策性 金融工具（以下简称"新工具"）政策解读暨项目申报对接会，努力在争取政策性开发性金融工具中抢占先机。 政策性金融工具通过发挥出"准财政"工具的职能，在市场作用不充分的领域积极发挥金融杠杆效应和投资拉动 作用。2022年，由3家政策性金融机构创设并投放约7400亿元的政策性、开发性金融工具，补充重大项目资本 金并为专项债项目资本金搭桥。2025年，政策性金融工具在4月25日召开的中央政治局会议上再次得到提及。 市场研究机构普遍预测新工具将在二季度落地。 5月中旬以来，地方政府开始陆续召开 新工具 政策宣讲或项目申报对接会，透露出诸多有关2025年 新工具 细 节。例如，四川省宜宾市国资委官网透露，5月23日召开的宜宾市国资大讲堂立足国家于今年4月底设立5000亿 元 新工具 的大背景，并针对性介绍城市基础设施、支柱产业、社会民生等领域的开发性金融政策。 从历史经验看，财政货币政策将为新工具提供配套支持。浙商证券宏观联席首席分析师廖博在接受证券时报记 者采访时曾表示，下半年财政政策空间相对有限，更需要货币政策递补财 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipation and preparation surrounding the upcoming announcement of a new type of policy financial tool by local governments, which is expected to enhance investment and leverage financial resources in underfunded areas [1][2]. Group 1: Background and Context - As of June 11, 2023, 12 provinces, including Shandong, Hunan, and Hubei, have held meetings to interpret policies and facilitate project applications for the new financial tool, indicating a proactive approach to secure funding [2]. - In 2022, three policy financial institutions created and deployed approximately 740 billion yuan in policy and developmental financial tools to support major projects and bridge funding gaps for special bond projects [2]. Group 2: Expected Impact and Areas of Focus - The new financial tool is anticipated to target significant projects in areas such as new urbanization, agriculture, artificial intelligence, digital economy, and infrastructure for consumer sectors [3]. - Local governments are focusing on specific sectors, with Anhui province planning to concentrate on industrial, cultural tourism, agriculture, and urban construction projects [3]. Group 3: Implementation and Support Mechanisms - The new financial tool will be supported by fiscal and monetary policies, with the People's Bank of China expected to provide funding through mechanisms like the pledged supplementary lending (PSL) to address capital shortages in key projects [3]. - Major policy financial institutions, including the China Development Bank and Agricultural Development Bank, are actively involved in the promotion and explanation of the new tool's operational framework and eligibility criteria [4]. Group 4: Strategic Planning by Local Governments - Local governments are conducting project scheduling meetings to prepare and reserve projects ahead of the official announcement of the new tool, emphasizing the importance of seizing the application window [4]. - Officials highlight the tool's potential to mobilize social capital and expand effective investment, urging the identification and implementation of high-quality projects [4].

中信证券研报表示，新型政策性金融工具时隔3年重启使用，规模为5000亿元，主要用于补充项目资本 金，加快投资项目落地进度。从近期地方政府召开的政策解读会、项目调度会相关报道看，新型政策性 金融工具的投向既包括城市基础设施、水利设施、交通基础设施等传统基建领域，也包括数字经济、人 工智能、低空经济等前沿科技产业。传统意义上政策性金融工具具有较大的撬动作用，化债环境下本次 撬动作用需结合企业贷款投放情况观察，但总体上财政政策显示出积极发力姿态，稳增长决心坚定。新 型政策性金融工具从推出到落地时滞约1-2个月，预计后续地方债发行使用将加速，特别国债支持的"两 重"项目也将加速落地，对今年下半年经济形成有力支撑。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The anticipation for the official announcement of the "new type of policy financial tools" is building, with local governments already conducting policy interpretation and project application meetings, indicating that the official announcement is imminent [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Financial Tools Overview - Local governments in 12 provinces, including Shandong, Hunan, and Hubei, have held meetings to discuss the new policy financial tools, aiming to seize opportunities in the upcoming policy framework [1]. - In 2022, three policy financial institutions created and deployed approximately 740 billion yuan (about 740 billion) in policy and development financial tools to support major project capital and bridge funding for special bond projects [1]. - The new tools are expected to be officially launched in the second quarter of 2023, as indicated by market research institutions [1]. Group 2: Support and Funding Mechanisms - The new tools are designed to address funding gaps in key areas such as new urbanization, agriculture, artificial intelligence, digital economy, and consumer infrastructure [3]. - Historical experience suggests that fiscal and monetary policies will provide necessary support for the new tools, with a focus on using monetary policy to supplement fiscal efforts, particularly through mechanisms like the Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) [2]. - Local governments are actively planning and reserving projects to maximize the benefits of the new tools, emphasizing the importance of leveraging social capital and expanding effective investment [4]. Group 3: Project Focus and Implementation - Specific areas of focus for project applications include industrial development, cultural tourism, agriculture, and urban construction, with local governments identifying priority projects in these sectors [3]. - The three main policy financial institutions involved in the new tools—China Development Bank, Agricultural Development Bank, and China Export-Import Bank—are actively participating in policy interpretation sessions to clarify eligibility and operational models [3]. - Local governments are urged to take advantage of the project application window to implement high-quality projects that translate policy potential into tangible development outcomes [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: China's economy shows a mixed trend with some indicators stable and others indicating weak recovery. Global economic growth is expected to slow, and trade disputes and policy uncertainties remain challenges. [21] - **Commodity Market**: The casting aluminum alloy futures had a positive debut. Metal production and inventory levels vary, and energy - related policies and supply - demand dynamics affect the energy market. Agricultural products have different supply - demand situations. [2][4] - **Financial Market**: The bond market is expected to have a volatile trend, with potential opportunities in credit bonds. The stock market shows different trends in A - shares and Hong Kong stocks, and institutional investors have different stances. The foreign exchange market has fluctuations in exchange rates. [23][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macroeconomic Data - GDP in Q1 2025 grew at a 5.4% year - on - year rate, the same as the previous quarter and slightly higher than the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in May 2025 was 49.5%, up from the previous month but the same as the same period last year. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down from the previous month and the same period last year. [1] - In April 2025, social financing scale increment decreased significantly compared to the previous month and the same period last year. M0, M1, and M2 showed different growth rates year - on - year. [1] - In May 2025, CPI was - 0.1% year - on - year, the same as the previous month but lower than the same period last year. PPI was - 3.3% year - on - year, lower than the previous month and the same period last year. [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - On June 10, all contracts of casting aluminum alloy futures closed higher, with the main AD2511 contract rising 4.49% to 19,190 yuan/ton. [2] - The first - day meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism continued on June 10. [2] - On June 10, 43 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 18 had negative basis. [2] - Policies were introduced to promote the high - quality development of the real economy in Shenzhen and improve people's livelihood. [2][3] 3.2.2 Metal - In April, Chile's copper production increased 20.5% year - on - year to 114,600 tons. [4] - On June 9, copper, tin, zinc, lead, aluminum, and nickel inventories decreased, while cobalt and aluminum alloy inventories remained stable. [4][5] - As of June 10, the gold持仓 of the world's largest gold ETF decreased by 0.03% from the previous trading day. [5] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The China Iron and Steel Association called on the steel and automotive industries to break the "involution". [6] - Zimbabwe plans to ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027. [7] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The National Energy Administration will carry out hydrogen energy pilot projects. [8] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil supply to China in July will decrease slightly but remain strong. [8] - The EU plans to impose new sanctions on Russia regarding the Nord Stream pipeline and oil price cap. [8] - Russia extended the ban on selling oil to buyers who comply with the price cap. [9] - EIA adjusted the average price forecasts of WTI and Brent crude oil for this year and next year. [9] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - On June 11, 10,000 tons of central reserve frozen pork will be purchased through bidding. [12] - India is expected to increase sugar exports in the 2025/26 season. [12] - South Korea's egg prices reached a four - year high in May, and prices are expected to rise in June and August. [12] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On June 10, the central bank conducted 198.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan. [13] 3.3.2 Important News - The China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism meeting continued on June 10. [15] - Policies were introduced to deepen reforms in Shenzhen and improve people's livelihood. [15] - The National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium with science - and - technology - based private enterprises. [16] - New policy - based financial instruments are expected to drive trillions of yuan in investment. [16] - As of June 10, the new issuance scale of land reserve special bonds this year reached 108.348 billion yuan. [16] - Many bond funds are "restricting purchases". [17] - The asset - securitization market has developed significantly this year. [17] - Newly issued savings bonds on June 10 had lower interest rates but were still popular. [18] - As of June 10, the issuance scale of commercial banks' "Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds" this year reached 770.16 billion yuan. [18] - The restructuring plan of Red Star Macalline was approved. [18] - New green and innovative medium - term notes and science - and - technology innovation bonds were successfully issued. [19][20] - Some local governments are strengthening debt and financial supervision. [20][21] - The World Bank and Fitch adjusted their global economic and sovereign rating outlooks. [21] - Japan may adjust its government bond purchase policy. [21] - Some bond - related companies had negative events, and some companies' credit ratings were adjusted. [22] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market showed slight fluctuations, with an optimistic atmosphere. [23] - Some bonds had price increases and decreases in the exchange - traded bond market. [23] - The convertible bond market had mixed performance. [24] - Most money market interest rates showed different trends. [25] - European and US bond yields had different trends due to various factors. [26][27] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar had different changes. [29] - The US dollar index rose slightly, and non - US currencies had mixed performance. [29] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Different investment institutions have different views on the bond market, including the continuation of volatility, potential for interest rate decline, and the attractiveness of credit bonds. [30] - Regarding the stock market, some institutions are optimistic about Chinese stocks, especially technology stocks. [36] 3.4 Stock Market News - A - share indices declined in the afternoon, with TMT sectors adjusting and some sectors rising. [34] - Hong Kong stock indices also declined, with different sector performances. [35] - Hundred - billion private equity funds have increased their positions in A - shares, indicating an optimistic outlook. [35] - UBS maintains a "neutral" stance on Chinese stocks and an "attractive" rating on Chinese technology stocks. [36] - More than 60% of active equity funds have recovered from losses, and there may be opportunities in technology stocks. [36]

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2509 | TS2512 | TF2509 | TF2512 | T2509 | T2512 | TL2509 | TL2512 | | | 昨日收盘价 前日收盘价 | 102.442 102.448 | 102.552 102.560 | 106.135 106.125 | 106.215 106.225 | 108.995 109.000 | 108.980 109.000 | 120.16 120.14 | 119.99 119.96 | | | 涨跌 | -0.006 | -0.008 | 0.010 | -0.010 | -0.005 | -0.020 | 0.020 | 0.030 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0.01 ...

Group 1: CPI and PPI Overview - In May 2025, the CPI year-on-year change was -0.1%, consistent with the previous month and better than the market expectation of -0.2%[2] - The core CPI year-on-year increased to +0.6%, up from +0.5% in the previous month[2] - The PPI year-on-year decline expanded to -3.3%, compared to -2.7% previously, and was below the market expectation of -3.2%[2] Group 2: Price Trends and Influences - Domestic prices remain low due to falling energy prices and weak domestic investment demand, but certain sectors like travel services and high-tech products are seeing price increases[3] - Food prices in May showed a month-on-month decline of -0.2%, which is better than the five-year average decline of -1.4%[5] - Energy prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month, contributing nearly 70% to the total CPI decline[5] Group 3: Future Outlook - CPI is expected to maintain low growth rates, with potential downward pressure from the pig market due to policy adjustments leading to increased supply[3] - PPI's month-on-month decline is anticipated to narrow as international oil prices stabilize and trade conditions improve[3] - The performance of core CPI and CPI may diverge, influenced by external factors such as oil prices and domestic consumption recovery[4]

Group 1: Economic Policies and Measures - Multiple incremental economic policies are expected to be introduced soon, focusing on "two new" and "two heavy" areas, as well as stabilizing foreign trade, which will help stabilize expectations and yield early results [1] - The "two new" policies have been strengthened and expanded this year, becoming a significant driver for expanding domestic demand, with digital product purchase subsidies exceeding 140 billion yuan and home appliance retail sales maintaining double-digit growth for eight consecutive months [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to accelerate fund allocation and complete the 2024 consumer goods replacement fund settlement, enhancing fund utilization efficiency and implementing equipment update loan interest subsidies to reduce financing costs for various business entities [1] Group 2: Investment and Financial Tools - Investment plays a crucial role in stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, fostering momentum, benefiting people's livelihoods, and preventing risks, with 99% of the 102 major projects under the "14th Five-Year Plan" already completed [2] - New policy financial tools are being established to address capital shortages for project construction, with an estimated quota of around 500 billion yuan, potentially driving 6 to 6.5 trillion yuan in effective investment [2] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to increase support for foreign trade enterprises, including expanding export credit insurance coverage to enhance the confidence of foreign trade companies [2] Group 3: Employment Support - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security emphasizes the need for incremental policies to support job creation, including increased employment subsidies and higher unemployment insurance for affected enterprises [3] - Recommendations include implementing measures such as job retention refunds, guaranteed loans, employment subsidies, vocational training, and expanding labor-based assistance programs [3] - Continuous policy research and reserve efforts will be maintained to ensure timely implementation of employment stabilization measures as needed [3]

Group 1 - China will approve compliant rare earth export license applications and urges the US to lift all trade restrictions, including the 301 tariffs [2][2] - The Ministry of Commerce will actively cooperate with relevant departments to address the "involution" competition in the automotive industry, promoting fair market order [2][2] - The National Bureau of Statistics announced the establishment of 10 national data element comprehensive pilot zones to enhance the integration of the real economy and digital economy [2][2] Group 2 - In May, retail sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.056 million units, a year-on-year increase of 30%, with a market penetration rate of 53.5% [2][2] - The Hong Kong stock market's total market capitalization reached HKD 40.9 trillion by the end of May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 24% [2][2] - A total of 439 A-share companies conducted buybacks in the past month, with a total amount of CNY 26.689 billion, a year-on-year increase of 51.83% [2][2] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months, enhancing policy transparency [2][2] - The China Securities Index Company will officially launch the CSI Haitong Asset Management Technology Theme Bond Index and the CSI Haitong Asset Management Green Theme Bond Index [2][2] - The A-share listed companies are entering a concentrated phase for profit distribution, with nearly 1,300 companies executing their 2024 annual distribution plans [2][2]