有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/10 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/03 215 1019 105791 31404 -652.82 409.92 85.0 100.0 52.31 143850 74375 2025/06/04 130 945 105791 31933 -863.51 389.51 81.0 98.0 48.48 141350 75025 2025/06/05 80 805 105791 31687 -1366.56 279.74 79.0 98.0 93.15 138000 83300 2025/06/06 75 974 107404 32278 -1323.74 19.48 41.0 65.0 69.84 132400 77800 2025/06/09 70 944 107404 34242 -1215.58 217.42 43.0 66.0 95.78 122400 67800 变化 -5 - ...

Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. Core Views - The domestic commodity market sentiment has improved, but the overseas trade situation remains volatile. The upward stimulus to US copper prices from the increase in US aluminum tariffs lacks long - term emotional support. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, but the marginal stability of processing fees and the widening of the refined - scrap spread have alleviated supply concerns. With weakening consumer resilience, the resistance to copper price increases has grown [1]. - The domestic commodity market sentiment has improved, leading to a rebound in aluminum prices. Low inventory levels support aluminum prices, but the increase in US aluminum tariffs has pressured demand expectations, and short - term aluminum prices may fluctuate weakly [3]. - The demand for lead ingots is weak, while primary lead production is rising. The开工 rate of secondary lead enterprises is declining, and if secondary lead production cuts lead to greater scrap price drops, it may deepen the downside space for lead prices [4]. - The processing fees for zinc concentrates are rising, and the expectation of zinc ore oversupply persists. With increasing zinc ingot production and weak terminal consumption, zinc prices face significant downward risks [6]. - The slow resumption of production in Myanmar and concerns about tin ore supply have led to a sharp rebound in tin prices. However, the supply release trend is inevitable, and with no significant increase in demand, the rebound space for tin prices is limited [7]. - Macro uncertainties are high for nickel. Although the short - term fundamentals have slightly improved, they remain bearish overall. It is recommended to short at high prices [8]. - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate have not changed substantially, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the commodity market sentiment, changes in positions, and supply disruptions [10]. - The alumina market has continuous ore - end disturbances, but the over - capacity situation persists. It is recommended to short at high prices lightly, with the ore price being the core factor [13]. - The cost of stainless steel has strong support, but the market is in a supply - surplus situation, and trade - based price support is weak [15]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper closed up 0.11% at $9649/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78140 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper is 77500 - 78600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is 9550 - 9700 dollars/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 2500 to 141350 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.05 to 3.2 million tons [1]. - Premium: The domestic copper spot import loss widened to about 1000 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum closed up 0.67% at $2487/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20110 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum is 19900 - 20200 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is 2450 - 2510 dollars/ton [3]. - Inventory: The three - location aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1.1 million tons to 39.1 million tons, and the two - location aluminum rod inventory increased by 0.1 million tons to 8.0 million tons. SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 4.9 million tons [3]. - Premium: The spot premium in East China decreased to 100 yuan/ton [3]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index closed up 0.59% at 16665 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 19 to $1988.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory increased to 4.49 million tons, and SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 4.17 million tons [4]. - Premium: The refined - scrap spread was - 25 yuan/ton, and the lead ingot import loss was - 887.96 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index closed up 1.21% at 22331 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 49.5 to $2722.5/ton [6]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 7.74 million tons, and SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.14 million tons [6]. - Premium: The Shanghai basis was 510 yuan/ton, and the zinc ingot import loss was - 491.89 yuan/ton [6]. Tin - Price: Tin prices rebounded significantly. The expected operating range for domestic SHFE tin this week is 230000 - 260000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin, it is 28000 - 31000 dollars/ton [7][8]. - Reason: Slow resumption of production in Myanmar and concerns about tin ore supply [7]. Nickel - Price: Nickel prices fluctuated. The short - term expected operating range for SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M, it is 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [8]. - Supply and demand: Refined nickel production is at a historical high, while stainless steel demand is weak, and downstream acceptance of high - priced nickel is limited [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC spot index was flat at 60537 yuan, and the LC2507 contract closed up 1.90% at 61080 yuan. The expected operating range for the LC2507 contract is 59700 - 62100 yuan/ton [10]. - Market: The short - term fundamentals have not changed substantially, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [10]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index rose 2.11% to 3055 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2800 - 3300 yuan/ton [12][13]. - Inventory: Futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.96 to 10.24 million tons [12]. - Strategy: It is recommended to short at high prices lightly, with the ore price as the core factor [13]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12720 yuan/ton, up 0.71%. The Foshan market's Delong 304 cold - rolled coil price was 12950 yuan/ton, and the Wuxi market's Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil price was 13100 yuan/ton [15]. - Inventory: Futures inventory decreased by 5299 to 124391 tons, and social inventory decreased by 1.61% to 109.96 million tons [15]. - Market: The cost has strong support, but the market is in a supply - surplus situation, and trade - based price support is weak [15].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The copper price is expected to fluctuate around 78,000 yuan, with the monthly spread and premium slightly declining, which will have a positive impact on spot market consumption, and the subsequent inventory accumulation may be slow [1]. - The aluminum price is expected to rebound with inventory depletion, and the monthly positive spread can be held if the absolute price falls [1]. - For zinc, it is recommended to short at high prices and partially take profits on the domestic - foreign positive spread at an appropriate time [2]. - There are opportunities to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio, which can continue to be monitored [3]. - Stainless steel is expected to fluctuate in the short term as the fundamentals remain weak [3]. - Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 16,900 yuan next week, with a planned supply reduction in May [6]. - For tin, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term and look for high - short opportunities in the long term [8]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate at the bottom, anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large factories in the long term [9]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to decline after oscillation in the short term and remain weak in the long - term due to capacity expansion [9]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: The domestic market continued to accumulate inventory slightly this week. The monthly spread and spot premium decreased, and spot trading improved. The LME inventory decreased by 1,925 tons, and the cancelled warrants increased by 3,275 tons [1]. - **Supply - side**: The Kamo' a mine had some mining areas shut down due to an earthquake, which may affect this year's output. The Manyer smelter in Indonesia will resume production in early June, which may improve the shortage of electrolytic copper premiums in Southeast Asia but have a negative impact on domestic TC [1]. - **Demand - side**: Domestic electrolytic copper consumption showed resilience. The State Grid issued the second - batch of tenders this week, and cable consumption and orders are expected to be strong in the remaining time of the second quarter. However, consumption in some sectors showed signs of weakening [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: Supply increased slightly, and imports from January to April were large. The inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July. The aluminum price rebounded with inventory depletion [1]. - **Supply - side**: The supply increased slightly, and imports from January to April were large [1]. - **Demand - side**: The demand decline from May to June is not obvious. Aluminum product exports are maintained, and photovoltaic demand declined slightly. There is still a supply - demand gap [1]. Zinc - **Market Data**: The zinc price oscillated this week. The domestic social inventory accumulation was slow, and the LME inventory decreased slightly [2]. - **Supply - side**: The domestic TC and imported TC remained unchanged this week, and smelting maintenance in May decreased slightly compared to the previous month [2]. - **Demand - side**: Domestic demand elasticity is limited, with weak orders in North China. Exports in East and South China can be maintained due to the easing of tariff sentiment. Overseas demand in Europe improved slightly [2]. Nickel - **Market Data**: The price of pure nickel decreased, and the overseas nickel plate inventory increased slightly [3]. - **Supply - side**: The production of pure nickel remained at a high level, and Russian nickel imports increased in April [3]. - **Demand - side**: The overall demand is weak, and the spot premium is maintained [3]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: The prices of various stainless - steel products remained stable, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly [3]. - **Supply - side**: The production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May [3]. - **Demand - side**: The demand is mainly for rigid needs [3]. Lead - **Market Data**: The lead price oscillated and declined this week. The LME inventory decreased by 2,500 tons [6]. - **Supply - side**: The scrap volume is weak year - on - year. Recycling merchants panicked to sell due to concerns about price changes after the holiday. Mid - stream recycled smelters have concentrated production capacity, but the supply of waste batteries is tight, and most operate at half - capacity. The concentrate production increased from March to April [6]. - **Demand - side**: Battery export orders decreased slightly, and the overall demand is weak. The consumption is in the off - season, and orders only meet rigid needs [6]. Tin - **Market Data**: The tin price oscillated narrowly this week. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the cancelled warrants increased by 10 tons [8]. - **Supply - side**: The short - term resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State requires negotiation. The processing fee at the mine end is low, and the smelting profit is inverted. Some smelters in Jiangxi Province have cut production, and those in Yunnan Province are struggling to maintain production [8]. - **Demand - side**: The elasticity of solder demand is limited. The growth rate of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline significantly. After the large - scale restocking by downstream enterprises, there is a lack of consumption - side impetus for further inventory reduction [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: The market price remained low. The social inventory decreased slightly, but the overall inventory level is still high [9]. - **Supply - side**: Some large northern factories resumed production, and Sichuan Tongwei continued to increase production. The overall start - up rate increased slightly. The enthusiasm of small and medium - sized factories to start production decreased [9]. - **Demand - side**: The demand for silicone and polysilicon is in a downward trend. Enterprises mainly purchase for rigid needs [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: The price of lithium carbonate decreased and then rebounded. The inventory accumulation speed slowed down this week [9]. - **Supply - side**: The production lines of Tianqi and Yahua resumed, and small recycling factories cut production more severely. Some self - owned mines are at a loss, and high - position hedging is used for sales [9]. - **Demand - side**: The downstream demand is weak. The policies such as trade - in do not improve the demand as expected. The lithium ore price continues to decline, and the lithium price loses support [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern before the Dragon Boat Festival, with fundamental support weakened but still present [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to factors such as the decline of PV installation rush and the arrival of the off - season [2]. - Nickel prices are expected to have limited downside due to cost support but may show a weak and volatile trend in the medium - to - long - term due to supply surplus [3][5]. - Tin prices are expected to have increased price fluctuations, and attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [6]. Summary by Metal Copper - As of May 29, the Shanghai copper main 07 contract rose 0.1% to 78130 yuan/ton. Mine - end disruptions continue, and the supply shortage pressure is difficult to change. Consumption in May weakened compared to April but was better than the same period. Low - level inventory supports the premium. The price is expected to be volatile before the festival [1]. - Domestic spot copper prices fell slightly, and the overall trading was quiet [7]. - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 2696 tons to 32165 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 1925 tons to 152375 tons [15]. Aluminum - As of May 29, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract rose 0.25% to 20200 yuan/ton. The revocation of mining licenses in Guinea has escalated. Alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacities are changing, and the downstream开工率 is weakening. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [2]. - The spot market transaction was stable, but the overall trading was not active [8]. - SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1723 tons to 51819 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2250 tons to 375075 tons [15]. Nickel - As of May 29, the Shanghai nickel main 07 contract fell 0.63% to 120480 yuan/ton. The nickel ore market is tight, and the supply of refined nickel is in surplus. The downstream demand is average. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [3][5]. - The spot price of nickel decreased. The ccmn Yangtze River comprehensive 1 nickel price was 120700 - 123000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121850 yuan/ton, down 1400 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 174 tons to 22170 tons, and LME nickel inventory decreased by 720 tons to 200142 tons [15]. Tin - As of May 29, the Shanghai tin main 07 contract fell 1.48% to 257870 yuan/ton. Supply has recovered, and the price is volatile. The production and import of tin have changed, and the inventory is at a medium level. The price fluctuation is expected to increase [6]. - The spot price of tin decreased. The ccmn Yangtze River comprehensive 1 tin price was 257400 - 260400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 258900 yuan/ton, down 5700 yuan from the previous day [13]. - SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 76 tons to 7908 tons, and LME tin inventory remained unchanged at 2680 tons [15]. Other Metals Zinc - The spot zinc market price decreased, and the trading was light. The import of goods made the supply more abundant, and the downstream pre - holiday stocking was basically completed [10]. - SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts decreased by 99 tons to 1675 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 2075 tons to 141375 tons [15]. Lead - The spot lead price increased slightly. The ccmn Yangtze River comprehensive 1 lead price was 16660 - 16760 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16710 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts decreased by 246 tons to 37252 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 2500 tons to 288550 tons [15].

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月29日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 264900 | 264800 | 100 | 0.04% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 650 | 700 | -50 | -7.14% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 265400 | 265300 | 100 | 0.04% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -111.00 | -135.00 | 24.00 | 17.78% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -10585.57 | -9335.31 | -1250.26 | -13.39% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8.09 | 8.1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Overall Market**: The domestic commodity market is weak, and overseas trade negotiations have a fluctuating impact on market sentiment. The economic slowdown risk and its impact on the market need to be noted under the repeated trade situation. - **Copper**: The supply of copper raw materials remains tight. In the short - term, supply disruptions may cause the copper price to rise, and the futures spread may widen. In the medium - term, economic slowdown risk should be monitored [2]. - **Aluminum**: The low inventory of aluminum provides strong support, and the aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level, with the futures spread likely to widen [4]. - **Lead**: The decline in recycled lead production may deepen the downward space of lead price if the scrap price drops further [5]. - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc concentrate is expected to be in surplus, and the zinc price has a downward risk with the accumulation of social inventory [7]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is expected to loosen, and the lack of significant growth in terminal orders may cause the tin price to decline [8][9]. - **Nickel**: The short - term fundamentals of nickel have slightly improved, but the overall situation is still bearish, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are weak, and the price is likely to oscillate weakly [12]. - **Alumina**: The over - capacity pattern of alumina remains unchanged, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market is expected to continue the weak oscillation pattern due to weak demand and cost support [16]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed down 0.19% to $9596/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78100 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 2575 to 162150 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 3.5 million tons. - **Supply - demand**: Raw material supply is tight, and the short - term supply disruption may push up the price. The reference range for SHFE copper is 77600 - 78600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper is $9500 - 9700/ton [2]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed up 0.69% to $2483/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20180 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 5.7 million tons, and the three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly by 0.1 to 41.4 million tons. - **Supply - demand**: Low inventory supports the price, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. The reference range for SHFE aluminum is 20000 - 20300 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum is $2440 - 2500/ton [4]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed up 0.15% to 16818 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $1983.5/ton. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 3.73 million tons, and domestic social inventory decreased to 4.01 million tons. - **Supply - demand**: The decline in recycled lead production may lead to a further decline in lead price [5]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed up 0.51% to 22289 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2691.5/ton. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 0.18 million tons, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 7.88 million tons. - **Supply - demand**: The supply of zinc concentrate is expected to be in surplus, and the zinc price has a downward risk [7]. Tin - **Price**: Tin price oscillated narrowly. - **Inventory**: SMM three - place inventory increased by 374 to 10333 tons. - **Supply - demand**: The supply and demand of tin are both weak. The supply is expected to loosen, and the lack of order growth may cause the price to decline. The reference range for domestic tin is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin is $31000 - 33000/ton [8][9]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel price oscillated weakly. - **Supply - demand**: The supply of refined nickel is high, and the demand is weak. The short - term fundamentals have slightly improved, but the overall situation is bearish. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel is $14500 - 16500/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC index rose 0.34%, and the LC2507 contract rose 1.36%. - **Supply - demand**: The fundamentals are weak, and the price is likely to oscillate weakly. The reference range for the LC2507 contract is 60220 - 61620 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index fell 1.34% to 3015 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: Futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.69 to 14.35 million tons. - **Supply - demand**: The over - capacity pattern remains unchanged, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 2850 - 3300 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12855 yuan/ton, down 0.16%. - **Inventory**: Futures inventory decreased by 4510 to 134611 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.85% to 111.77 million tons. - **Supply - demand**: The market is expected to continue the weak oscillation pattern due to weak demand and cost support [16].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | | | 昨日 LME 休市；昨晚 SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.23%至 78450 元/吨。宏观方面，美联储明 | | | | | 年票委、明尼阿波利斯联储主席表示，美国经济面临的最大风险是新政策的不确定 | | | | | 性，不确定到 9 月份时有足够证据进行降息。欧央行表示欧元可能成为美元的替代， | | | | | 近期全球动荡为欧元推进全球化创造契机。库存方面，SMM 周一统计全国主流地区 铜库存环比上周五微降 0.02 万吨至 13.97 万吨，结束连续两周周一累库重新下降。需 | | | | 铜 | 求方面，高铜价高升水，下游采购相对谨慎，终端需求订单可能逐步放缓。虽然特朗 | | | | | 普态度反复摇摆，但美政府关税立场缓和下，宏观方面整体朝着回暖的方向发展。基 | | | | | 本面方面，COMEX 市场继续"吸"铜，LME 库存快速下降，或引起非美国家铜紧 | | | | | 张的情形，从我国 4 月精通、 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper price may experience a short - term upward movement due to supply tightness and the relative strength of US copper, but there are risks of economic slowdown in the medium term [1]. - The aluminum price is supported by the continuous decline of inventories and is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level, with the possibility of the inter - month spread further widening [3]. - For lead, if the reduction in recycled production leads to a greater decline in scrap prices, it may weaken the cost support and deepen the downward space for lead prices [4]. - Zinc prices still face a certain downward risk in the medium term as the social inventory of zinc ingots accumulates [6]. - The tin price may decline as the supply is expected to loosen and the demand is weak [7][8]. - Nickel has a slightly improved short - term fundamental situation but remains bearish in the long run, and it is recommended to short at high prices [9]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the futures price may run weakly [11]. - For alumina, it is recommended to lightly short at high prices as the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change [13]. - The stainless steel market is affected by cost support and supply - demand game, and it is difficult to show a trend in the short term [15]. Summary by Metal Copper - Last week, the LME copper rose 1.84% to $9614/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78390 yuan/ton [1]. - The total inventory of the three major exchanges decreased by 20,000 tons, and the Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 11,000 tons [1]. - The spot import loss of copper expanded, and the Yangshan copper premium continued to decline [1]. - The SHFE copper main contract is expected to run in the range of 77,200 - 79,500 yuan/ton, and the LME copper 3M in the range of $9450 - 9750/ton [1]. Aluminum - Last week, the LME aluminum fell 0.74% to $2466/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,175 yuan/ton [3]. - The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 24,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 10,000 tons [3]. - The SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to run in the range of 20,000 - 20,400 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2420 - 2520/ton [3]. Lead - Last week, the SHFE lead index rose 1.07% to 16,859 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S rose to $1984.5/ton [4]. - The domestic social inventory of lead increased, and the LME lead inventory was 295,800 tons [4]. Zinc - Last week, the SHFE zinc index fell 0.20% to 22,213 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose to $2695/ton [6]. - In April, China's exports of unforged zinc alloy reached 1280.23 tons, with a significant increase [6]. - The zinc concentrate port inventory continued to rise, and the zinc price has a downward risk in the medium term [6]. Tin - Last week, the tin market maintained a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price continued to oscillate at a high level [7]. - The supply of tin ore is gradually recovering but slowly, and the demand has not increased significantly [7][8]. - The SHFE tin main contract is expected to run in the range of 260,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin in the range of $34,000 - 39,000/ton [8]. Nickel - Last week, the nickel price maintained a weak oscillation [9]. - The supply of refined nickel is at a historical high, and the demand from the stainless - steel market is weak [9]. - It is recommended to short at high prices, with the SHFE nickel main contract expected to run in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and the LME nickel 3M in the range of $14,500 - 16,500/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - On Friday, the MMLC of lithium carbonate decreased, and the futures price also declined [11]. - The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the futures price may run weakly [11]. - The reference operating range of the GZCE lithium carbonate 2507 contract is 60,200 - 61,600 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - On May 23, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.31% to 3165 yuan/ton [13]. - The spot prices in some regions increased, and the futures inventory decreased [13]. - It is recommended to lightly short at high prices, with the domestic main contract AO2509 expected to run in the range of 2850 - 3400 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,875 yuan/ton [15]. - The spot prices in some markets remained stable, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease [15]. - The market is affected by cost support and supply - demand game, and it is difficult to show a trend in the short term [15].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 21 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | 种 | 隔夜 LME 铜先抑后扬，上涨 0.4%至 9554.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.36%至 | | | 78140 元/吨；国内现货进口亏损幅度加大。宏观方面，欧美关税问题进行谈判，日本 | | | 考虑接受美国调降关税，而非完全豁免。国内方面，中国 4 月经济数据显示，消费略 | | | 超预期，固定资产投资整体增速较低，房地产出现回踩特征。库存方面，LME 铜库存 | | | 下降 3575 吨至 170750 吨；comex 铜库存增加 1127 吨至 155694 吨；SHFE 铜仓单下降 | | 铜 | 16175 吨至 45738。需求方面，随着铜价走高，旺季转淡季预期下，下游采购相对谨 | | | 慎，终端需求订单可能逐步放缓。昨晚黄金和原油大幅回升，带动市场情绪，铜价震 | | | 荡走高。另外，市场关注国内某仓位大量持有铜多头情况，市场或担心挤仓风险，且 | | | 铜结构也不利于空头布局，从 SHFE 仓单来看依然维系大量流出情形，表明部分投 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to maintain a high - level shock, aluminum price rebound sustainability remains to be seen, nickel is expected to show a weak shock, and tin price volatility is expected to increase [1][2][5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Base Metals Copper - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai copper rose 0.08% to 78,090 yuan/ton. The easing of global trade tensions makes the copper price return to the fundamental logic. The TC of copper concentrates continues to decline, and the subsequent output of smelters may decline. The consumption is stable but the high monthly spread restricts it. Technically, it runs between 74,500 - 80,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 78,500 yuan [1] Aluminum - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 1.27% to 20,005 yuan/ton. Bauxite supply increases and prices decline. Alumina production capacity decreases, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity increases. The downstream开工 rate has a weakening expectation. The aluminum price rebounds, but the sustainability needs to be observed [2] Nickel - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai nickel fell 1.52% to 123,860 yuan/ton. The inflation cools down, and the domestic manufacturing PMI declines. The nickel ore price is firm, the refined nickel is in surplus, the nickel - iron has support but is also in surplus, and the stainless - steel is in the off - season. The cost of nickel sulfate rises, but the demand is weak. It is expected to run weakly [3][5] Tin - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai tin rose 0.37% to 262,070 yuan/ton. The domestic refined tin output may decrease, and the import of tin concentrates decreases. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The tin ore supply is tight, and the mine has a strong resumption expectation. The price volatility is expected to increase, and the operation range is 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton [6] Spot Transaction Summary Copper - The domestic spot copper price falls. After the copper price rises, the downstream's willingness to receive goods decreases, and the actual transaction activity is limited [7] Aluminum - The spot aluminum price rises. The holders' willingness to sell is slow at first, but the high price stimulates some profit - taking. The downstream only makes purchases at low prices, and the overall transaction is dull [8] Alumina - The spot price of alumina rises slightly. The transaction in the spot market becomes dull, and the downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises make rigid purchases [9] Zinc - The spot zinc price falls. The activity in the spot trading market decreases, and the downstream users adopt a price - pressing and quantity - limiting strategy [10] Lead - The spot lead price remains unchanged. The downstream maintains rigid purchases and sales [11] Nickel - The spot nickel price falls. The merchants make rigid purchases at low prices, and the inquiry enthusiasm increases [12] Tin - The spot tin price falls. The merchants make rigid purchases, and the overall transaction activity is stable [13] Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - For SHFE, copper, lead, and nickel futures warehouse receipts increase, while aluminum, zinc, and tin futures warehouse receipts decrease. For LME, copper, zinc, and aluminum inventories decrease, while lead, nickel inventories increase, and tin inventory remains unchanged [15]