Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the macro - sentiment continued to show a rise in risk appetite. Although domestic economic and financial data were poor, the stock market sentiment remained high. In the copper market, downstream orders had support around 7.8, and the spot market was active. The domestic tax subsidy policy for scrap copper might be restricted, and attention should be paid to the stimulation of refined copper consumption. In August, a small - scale inventory build - up was expected, but the market might focus on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly, and August was a seasonal off - season for demand, with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late August. Aluminum exports improved month - on - month, while photovoltaic demand declined, and overseas demand dropped significantly. An inventory build - up was expected in August. Attention should be paid to demand in the short - term and far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory pattern [3]. - The zinc price fluctuated widely this week. On the supply side, domestic TC was hard to rise, and imported TC increased. In August, the increase in smelting production was further realized. On the demand side, domestic demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience, and overseas European demand was average. There might be a phased supply shortage. Domestically, social inventory rose, and overseas LME inventory decreased rapidly. Short - term, it was recommended to wait and see; medium - and long - term, a short - position configuration was suggested. Internal - external positive arbitrage could be held, and attention could be paid to positive arbitrage opportunities in spreads [6]. - In the nickel market, pure nickel production remained at a high level, demand was weak, and domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remained stable. The short - term fundamental situation was average, and the macro - environment was mainly about anti - involution policy games. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio could be continuously monitored [7]. - For stainless steel, some steel mills cut production passively, and demand was mainly for rigid needs, with some inventory replenishment due to the macro - environment. Nickel - iron and chrome - iron prices remained stable, and inventories in Xijiao and Foshan decreased slightly. The fundamental situation was weak, and attention should be paid to future policy trends [10]. - The lead price fluctuated this week. On the supply side, scrap volume was weak year - on - year, and recycled lead production was low due to tight scrap batteries and low profits. On the demand side, battery inventory was high, and the market was not prosperous in the peak season. Although there was an improvement in orders in July - August, terminal consumption and lead ingot procurement were weak. It was expected that the lead price would remain in a low - level fluctuation next week [11][13]. - The tin price fluctuated widely this week. On the supply side, domestic smelting production might decline slightly in July - August, and overseas, there were signals of复产 in Wa State, but the specific quantity needed to be observed. On the demand side, solder demand was limited, and terminal electronic and photovoltaic growth was expected to decline. Domestic inventory increased, and overseas LME inventory was low with a risk of short - squeeze. Short - term, it was recommended to short lightly at high prices; medium - and long - term, hold at low prices near the cost line [15]. - In the industrial silicon market, the start - up rate of Xinjiang's leading enterprises was 59, and the resumption of production was less than expected. Sichuan and Yunnan's start - up rates increased slightly. In August, there was a small - scale inventory reduction. In the short - term, if either Southwest or Hesheng reached full production, the market would turn to oversupply. In the long - term, the industrial silicon capacity was still in large - scale surplus, and the price was expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16]. - The lithium carbonate market was strong this week due to factors such as inventory reduction data and the expected impact of CITIC Guoan's start - up. Upstream lithium salt producers were willing to sell, downstream procurement was mainly for rigid needs with stronger inventory - replenishment intention, and trading among traders was more active. The core contradiction was the long - term over - capacity and short - term resource - end compliance disturbances. In the short - term, the lithium carbonate price had high upward elasticity and strong downward support [17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 12 to August 18, the Shanghai copper spot price increased by 20, the premium changed by 150, the scrap - refined copper price difference remained unchanged, the SHFE inventory increased by 938, the SHFE copper warrant increased by 16.47, the spot import profit decreased by 9.08, the three - month import profit decreased by 3.00, the bonded warehouse premium remained unchanged, the bill of lading premium decreased by 2, the LME C - 3M decreased by 3, the LME inventory decreased by 200, and the LME cancelled warrant decreased by 150 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The macro - sentiment was positive, downstream orders had support, and the spot market was active. The domestic tax subsidy policy for scrap copper might be restricted, and attention should be paid to the impact on refined copper consumption. An inventory build - up was expected in August, but the post - off - season tight - balance pattern was more concerning [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 12 to August 18, the aluminum bonded premium remained unchanged, the difference between Shanghai aluminum spot and the main contract remained unchanged, the spot import profit increased by 43.58, the three - month import profit increased by 28.61, the aluminum C - 3M decreased by 1.84, the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 25, and the LME cancelled warrant decreased by 50 [2][3]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increased slightly, August was a demand off - season, and an inventory build - up was expected. Attention should be paid to demand and far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory pattern [3]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 12 to August 18, the spot premium remained unchanged, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 150, the Tianjin zinc ingot price decreased by 150, the Guangdong zinc ingot price decreased by 150, the zinc social inventory remained unchanged, the SHFE zinc inventory remained unchanged, the Shanghai zinc spot import profit increased by 248.87, the Shanghai zinc futures import profit increased by 221.22, the zinc bonded warehouse premium remained unchanged, the LME C - 3M decreased by 4, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 475, and the LME cancelled warrant decreased by 475 [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The zinc price fluctuated widely. Supply increased, demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience, and there might be a phased supply shortage. Domestic social inventory rose, and overseas LME inventory decreased rapidly. Different trading strategies were recommended for different time horizons [6]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 12 to August 18, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 100, the Jinchuan premium remained unchanged, the Russian nickel premium decreased by 50, the spot import return decreased by 20.42, the futures import return remained unchanged, the bonded warehouse premium remained unchanged, the LME C - 3M increased by 13 [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Pure nickel production was high, demand was weak, and domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remained stable. Attention should be paid to opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [7]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 12 to August 18, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil increased by 50, the price of 304 hot - rolled coil remained unchanged, the price of 201 cold - rolled coil decreased by 50, the price of 430 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Some steel mills cut production passively, demand was mainly for rigid needs with some inventory replenishment, nickel - iron and chrome - iron prices were stable, and inventories in Xijiao and Foshan decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to future policy trends [10]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 12 to August 18, the spot premium remained unchanged, the Shanghai - Henan price difference decreased by 25, the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference remained unchanged, the 1 recycled lead price difference increased by 25, the social inventory data had no significant change, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, the spot import return increased by 75.86, the futures import return increased by 70.81, the bonded warehouse premium remained unchanged, the LME C - 3M decreased by 1, the LME lead inventory decreased by 625, and the LME cancelled warrant increased by 675 [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The lead price fluctuated. Supply was affected by scrap volume and production costs, demand was not strong in the peak season, and an inventory build - up was expected. The lead price was expected to remain in a low - level fluctuation next week [11][13]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 12 to August 18, the spot import return increased by 1187.76, the spot export return decreased by 1192.25, the tin position decreased by 647, the LME C - 3M increased by 26, the LME tin inventory remained unchanged, and the LME cancelled warrant decreased by 20 [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The tin price fluctuated widely. Supply might decline slightly domestically, and overseas production resumption was uncertain. Demand was limited, and there was a risk of short - squeeze in the overseas market. Different trading strategies were recommended for different time horizons [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 12 to August 18, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 200, the 421 Sichuan basis increased by 200, the 553 East China basis increased by 200, the 553 Tianjin basis increased by 200, and the number of warrants increased by 111 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The start - up rate of Xinjiang's leading enterprises was less than expected, Sichuan and Yunnan's start - up rates increased slightly. In August, there was a small - scale inventory reduction, and the market was expected to turn to oversupply if production increased. In the long - term, the capacity was in surplus, and the price would fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 12 to August 18, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1900, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1900, the main contract basis decreased by 440, the near - month contract basis increased by 1900, and the number of warrants increased by 70 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The market was strong this week due to multiple factors. Upstream was willing to sell, downstream procurement was for rigid needs with stronger inventory - replenishment intention, and trading among traders was more active. The short - term price had high upward elasticity and strong downward support [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆★ [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly rated [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ (implied from context) [1] - Tin: ★★★ (implied from context) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by different factors such as supply - demand relationships, macroeconomic data, and policy expectations. Each metal has its own short - term and medium - term trends and investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - Friday saw Shanghai copper oscillating with a positive line, supported by medium - term moving averages. The spot copper price dropped to 79,180 yuan. The market is concerned about US retail sales and industrial output data. It is believed that there is significant resistance above the copper price, and short positions at high levels should be held [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly today, with the East China spot at par. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly by 0.1 million tons, while that of aluminum rods decreased by 0.9 million tons. The start - up of downstream leading enterprises stabilized. The peak of off - season inventory accumulation for aluminum ingots may occur in August, and the inventory is likely to remain low this year. Shanghai aluminum will mainly oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor but has certain resilience. The spot - AL cross - variety spread may gradually narrow. The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and both industry inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts are rising. As supply surplus becomes more apparent, the spot index in various regions is falling, and there is adjustment pressure on the alumina futures [3] Zinc - LME zinc inventory continued to decline to 77,500 tons, with the 0 - 3 month spread close to par. The low inventory in the outer market supports the price. Short - position funds are continuously reducing their positions, and LME zinc is expected to oscillate strongly. The import window remains closed, and the outer market is pulling up the inner market. The domestic Shanghai zinc has fully priced in the weak reality and weak expectations, and the term structure has flattened. There is a lack of resonance between macro sentiment and fundamentals, and short - term directional signals are insufficient. The supply of mines at home and abroad continues to increase, and there is still room to short mine profits on the futures. The idea of short - allocating on rebounds in the medium term remains unchanged, waiting for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [4] Aluminum (Second entry) - LME aluminum inventory is at a high level, and the outer market is dominated by surplus, oscillating weakly. The import window remains closed. As the delivery approaches, the SMM social inventory of aluminum has increased to 71,700 tons. Recently, the futures - spot spread has narrowed, and the profit from delivering to the warehouse is insufficient. The subsequent domestic lead ingot inventory may become invisible, and the growth space of the visible social inventory in the future is expected to be limited. The aluminum price is oscillating at a low level, and there is reluctance to sell recycled aluminum. The SMM precision price is inverted by 25 yuan/ton. There is limited downward space for lead. Downstream purchasing on dips has improved, but the terminal consumption has not recovered. There is potential demand in the data center UPS power and energy storage sectors. It is advisable to hold long positions near 16,600 yuan/ton. At the same time, there are still 10 days until the expiration of near - month options, and opportunities in the last - trading - day options can be considered [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The domestic anti - dumping theme is coming to an end, and nickel with relatively poor fundamentals will return to its fundamentals. The premium for Jinchuan nickel is 2350 yuan, the premium for imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium for electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price of high - nickel ferro - nickel is 921 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price support has weakened recently. In terms of inventory, the ferro - nickel inventory remains basically unchanged at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. Pay attention to signs of the end of de - stocking. Shanghai nickel is in a rebound and should be regarded as oscillating [7] Tin - Shanghai tin recovered part of its decline and closed above the MA40 daily average line. A small amount of LME tin inventory flowed in this week, and its persistence should be tracked. In the domestic market, pay attention to the maintenance and production plans of large factories. It is believed that there is room to reduce the high social inventory in the domestic market. Today, the spot tin is reported at 266,000 yuan, and there is still a real - time premium of 700 yuan on the last trading day. Short - term long positions at low levels should be held based on the MA60 daily average line [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate strengthened at the end of the session, and the market trading was active. The delivery problem in September restricts the upward space. The spot price is reported at 83,000 yuan. Downstream inquiry activities are active, and the spot market transaction has improved. The total market inventory has slightly declined to 142,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 3000 tons to 52,000 tons, the downstream inventory has increased by 3000 tons to 46,000 tons, and the trader inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 44,000 tons. The transfer of cargo rights is obvious, and downstream enterprises are increasing their replenishment efforts as the price回调. The latest quotation of Australian ore is nearly 1000 US dollars. The futures price fluctuates greatly, and risk management should be noted [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher, turning positive at the end of the session due to the sentiment transmission from polysilicon. On the spot side, the price of Xinjiang 421 silicon remained stable at 9050 yuan/ton (SMM), down 100 yuan/ton. Under the background of increased production by large factories in Xinjiang and in Sichuan and Yunnan, there is still pressure from high - level hedging on the futures. However, SMM expects the polysilicon production schedule to exceed 130,000 tons, with a clear marginal increase in demand. Coupled with the expectation of photovoltaic policies, the support below the futures is strong, and it will mainly oscillate in the short term [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures increased significantly in position and rose. The expectation of a photovoltaic conference next week is rising, and the sentiment of policy benefits is fermenting again. At the same time, some terminals have begun to accept the component price of 0.68 yuan/W. However, it should be noted that under the expectation of a structural decline in terminal demand in September, the component price and price will still be under pressure. In the polysilicon segment, the production in August is expected to increase significantly to 130,000 tons, and the high - inventory pattern still restricts the upward space of its price. In operation, short - term news related to the photovoltaic conference has a significant impact on sentiment. The current futures is close to the previous high. Long positions can consider partial profit - taking, and at the same time, pay attention to position control and the performance at the resistance level of 53,000 yuan/ton [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - **沪铜**: Today, Shanghai copper fluctuated downward with a decline in open interest. On the macro - level, the domestic sentiment turned cold, and previously strong varieties generally fell, pressuring copper prices down. On the industrial level, Mysteel's inventory on Thursday was basically the same as on Monday. Technically, pay attention to the long - short game at the 79,000 mark [5]. - **沪铝**: Today, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated with a continuous decline in open interest. On the macro - level, the domestic sentiment turned cold, and previously strong varieties generally fell, pressuring aluminum prices down. On the industrial level, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory on Thursday was 517,000 tons, a decrease of 54,000 tons from Monday. With macro - level negatives and industrial - level positives, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **沪镍**: Today, nickel prices decreased with a reduction in positions. On the macro - level, the domestic sentiment turned cold, and previously strong varieties generally fell, pressuring nickel prices down. On the industrial level, the nickel fundamentals remained weak. With the weakening of the market and weak industrial support, pay attention to the technical support at the 120,000 mark [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 14, Mysteel's domestic market electrolytic copper spot inventory was 132,400 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the 7th and an increase of 200 tons from the 11th [9]. - **Aluminum**: On August 14, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 517,000 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from the 7th and a decrease of 54,000 tons from the 11th [10]. - **Nickel**: On August 14, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2509 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,150 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,670 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +500 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,020 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +3,200 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,720 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was +2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,070 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and others [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and others [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and others [36][42][44].

有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 12 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色维持偏强震荡 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价小幅震荡上行，持仓量也小幅上升，主力期价站上 7.9 万关口。宏观层面，内外宏观氛围较好，有利于铜价上行。产业淡 季，库存小幅上升，9-10 月差持续走弱。宏观氛围较好的情况下， 铜价或维持强势运行。 沪铝 今日沪铝震荡上行，持仓量小幅上升，主力期价站上 2.07 万关 口。宏观层面，国内氛围回暖，利好铝价。产业层面，下游淡季，电 解铝持续累库。宏观利好，产业利空，铝价或偏强震荡。 有色金属 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper showed narrow - range fluctuations. Macro - factors include market attention on US trade negotiation results and recession concerns from US economic data. Fundamentally, there are still differences in views on the future of US copper. Excessive inventory in the US may lead to continuous weakness in US copper, causing inventory relocation risks and impacting global copper prices. The approaching "Golden September" peak season in China provides some price support, and the probability of a sharp short - term decline is low. Currently, copper maintains a relative balance between bulls and bears, waiting for external factors to break the situation [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina fluctuated strongly, while沪铝 and aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. In August, the profits in the aluminum industry shifted from upstream to downstream. Alumina's复产 rhythm increases the expectation of oversupply, with callback pressure but limited deep - decline space due to short - term cost support. The signing of an aluminum cooperation agreement between India and Russia raises the expectation of US tariff increases on the two countries, increasing trade cost concerns. As "Golden September" approaches, the stocking in the white - goods and automotive sectors starts in advance. The supply - demand of electrolytic aluminum shows signs of change, with the spot price changing from premium to discount. Aluminum prices are in a stage of "time for space" with an expectation of continued recovery. Aluminum alloy is in a tug - of - war between cost and demand, waiting for the peak - season guidance [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel rose 1.39% and沪镍 rose 0.66%. LME inventory decreased, while domestic SHFE仓单 increased. The raw material prices of stainless steel showed differentiation, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased for four consecutive weeks with a slightly slower de - stocking speed. The overall fundamentals changed little and remained in a volatile state [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight narrow - range fluctuations. Macro - factors and US copper inventory issues impact the market. The approaching peak season in China provides support, and the price is in a balanced state [1]. - **Aluminum**: Different products in the aluminum industry showed different trends. There are changes in industry profits, trade cost concerns, and supply - demand signs. Aluminum alloy is in a cost - demand tug - of - war [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight price increases, changes in inventory, and stable fundamentals with a volatile trend [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Price changes in various copper products, inventory changes in different locations, and changes in other indicators such as LME0 - 3 premium and CIF提单 [3]. - **Lead**: Stable average price, changes in升贴水 and沪铅 spreads, and changes in lead - related prices and inventory [3]. - **Aluminum**: Price changes in aluminum products, raw materials, and downstream products. Inventory changes in different locations and升贴水 changes [4]. - **Nickel**: Price changes in nickel products, raw materials, and stainless - steel products. Inventory changes in different locations and升贴水 changes [4]. - **Zinc**: Price changes, including主力结算价, LmeS3, and现货 prices. Inventory changes and升贴水 changes [5]. - **Tin**: Price changes, including主力结算价, LmeS3, and现货 prices. Inventory changes and升贴水 changes [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Spot升贴水**: Charts show the spot升贴 water trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **3.3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][17][19]. - **3.3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts show the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **3.3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **3.3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - **3.3.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts show the copper concentrate index,粗铜加工费, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, a senior researcher with rich experience and multiple awards; Wang Heng, who focuses on aluminum - silicon research; and Zhu Xi, who focuses on lithium - nickel research [48][49].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a certain direction but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term multi/short trend and poor operability on the trading floor, for observation only) [1] - Lead: ☆☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★★☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market shows different trends and investment opportunities for various non - ferrous metals. For each metal, factors such as macro - economy, supply - demand relationship, and inventory levels are considered to make investment suggestions [1][2][3] Summary by Metals Copper - Friday saw Shanghai copper continue to show a fluctuating positive line. The current copper price is 78,530 yuan, with a premium of 120 yuan in Shanghai and a discount of 40 yuan in Guangdong. The copper market trading is dull, and it has basically been operating near the MA60 moving average this week. The market is not strongly affected by the new round of US tariffs and mainly tracks macro - economic indicators. The number of initial jobless claims in the US soared last week. Hold previous short positions [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuates in a narrow range, and the spot discount in East China remains at 50 yuan. Consumption is in the off - season recently, but the output of aluminum rods has increased month - on - month. The peak of aluminum ingot social inventory may appear in August. Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot quotation remains flat at 19,800 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor, but it has certain toughness relative to the aluminum price. Pay attention to the possible narrowing of the spread between the spot and AL. The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the balance is in a surplus state. The price of bauxite in Guinea is firm during the rainy season, corresponding to a cost of 3000 - 3100 yuan in Shanxi and Henan in China. Alumina is under pressure to fluctuate, but the downward space is also relatively limited [2] Zinc - The expiration date of the main contract falls in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The expectations of domestic fiscal policy and the Fed's interest rate cut are relatively positive, and there is insufficient resonance between the macro - situation and the fundamental situation of increasing supply and weak demand. The weighted position of Shanghai zinc has dropped to 209,000 lots, and the capital congestion has significantly declined. Fundamentally, it is strong overseas and weak at home. The rebound of LME zinc drives the domestic market, but the downstream's willingness to take delivery at high prices is insufficient. The zinc price rebound is regarded as under pressure. Wait for the opportunity to short - allocate above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - The lead price fluctuates at a low level, and the capital trading is relatively light. It is difficult to purchase waste batteries at low prices, and the recycled lead producers are reluctant to sell due to losses. The refined - scrap price difference is 25 yuan/ton. The downstream's willingness to take delivery is poor, and the rigid demand tends to purchase primary lead with higher cost - effectiveness. There are limited short - term contradictions in the lead market. The overall supply of lead ingots in August is expected to increase month - on - month. Some primary lead smelters have regular maintenance plans from the end of August to the beginning of September. The peak - season consumption still needs to be verified by social inventory. Wait for the evolution of contradictions. Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounds, and the market trading is active. As the domestic anti - involution theme comes to an end, nickel with relatively poor fundamentals will accelerate its return to fundamentals. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2350 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price of high - nickel iron is quoted at 915.6 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price support has significantly weakened recently. In terms of inventory, the nickel - iron inventory remains basically flat at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall level is still high. Pay attention to the signs of the end of de - stocking. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound, and actively intervene in short positions [6] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuates and closes with a negative line at 268,000 yuan, and the current tin price is reported at 268,000 yuan, with a real - time premium of 170 yuan over the delivery month. The overseas tin price is supported by low visible inventory and the decline in Indonesia's production in the first half of the year. In China, pay attention to the changes in high social inventory under the game between the major smelters' maintenance plans and weak consumption. Observe or choose the opportunity for short - term long positions [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounds with increasing volume, and the market trading is active. The price structure shows weakness in the near - term contracts, and the spot price is quoted at 72,000 yuan. The downstream's inquiry behavior is active, and the spot market trading has improved. The total market inventory has slightly decreased to 142,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 3000 tons to 52,000 tons, the downstream inventory has increased by 3000 tons to 46,000 tons, and the trader inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 44,000 tons. The transfer of cargo rights is obvious, and the downstream has increased the intensity of replenishment during the price correction. The latest quotation of Australian ore is 745 US dollars, which has significantly followed the decline of the lithium carbonate price. The smelting output has decreased by 8% week - on - week. After the significant rebound of the lithium carbonate futures price, the game value has decreased. Look for high - level short - selling positions [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon closes slightly higher, and the spot - end manufacturers' quotations remain stable. Currently, the market supply pressure is still significant. It is expected that the output in August will increase by 21,700 - 31,700 tons month - on - month. Among them, the operating rates in Sichuan and Yunnan are continuously increasing, and large - scale factories in Xinjiang also have复产 arrangements. Although both polysilicon and organic silicon downstream have production - increasing expectations, the expected increment is still less than that of industrial silicon. There are still policy expectations, and combined with the large decline in the previous disk, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures touched above 49,000 yuan/ton during the day and then rebounded, closing in the positive territory at the end of the session. In the spot market, the average price of polysilicon multi - product feedstock remains stable at 47,000 yuan/ton (SMM). The upward pressure is large, the downstream component price has decreased, and the terminal still resists high prices. Overall, there are still policy expectations, the spot price increase has slowed down, and the trend may maintain range - bound fluctuations [10]

| | | 有色金属周度观点 国发期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 国授期货 | 研究院有色全属团队 | 2025/8/5 | | 序号 | 品产 | 主要观点(最新逻辑变化) | | | | 衡向铜价震高下调。1) 情绪:美国浸防段232铜芙股征收对象大超预期,夹伦街老瑟利逻排破裂. 夹盘暴跌, 恰老目归到100美元:伦导沪 铜廷徐震荡。7月主要经济体制造业IIII萎缩为主:IIF表示受益关极不确定带来的进口图货需求,上调今年经济增速预期。25至35, 如预期"按兵不动",且然美国6月核心死后同比上激2.8%,创四个月新高,但英国过去两个月非袁就业人数大幅下滑,市场认为8月下调利 | | 1 | | 率为大概率事件,降息交易情绪升温。2)团内供藏:沪桐减仓明显,跌破460日均线后,在7.8万暂获支撑,市况仍属该季。周二观阴报 | | 월 | | 78615元,上科钢开水130元,广东贴水55元,周一胡风铜社库增加300吨至13.43万吨,因产货源与进口铜到货均有增加,消费相对一般, | | | | 原材报价仍紧。3》耗外。伦导体名和一13.95万吨，IDE0=3月贴水32类元。 智利Co ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector is generally in an adjustment phase, following the profit - taking adjustment of domestic anti - involution stocks. The overall non - ferrous metals market continues to fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to the changes in the manufacturing industry and the lagged impact of tariff increases after the trade situation becomes clear [12]. - The US and the EU have reached a trade agreement, which may boost the US dollar in the short term. The progress of China - US trade negotiations also needs to be closely monitored [12]. - The domestic policy benefits have led to a rotational upward movement in the industrial product sector, but the sustainability and intensity of the spillover effect are average, and the impact during adjustments is also limited. Future attention should be paid to specific policies and their implementation [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations for Non - Ferrous Metals 3.1.1 Macro Logic - The non - ferrous metals sector is adjusting, and the varieties that had a relatively obvious weekly rebound last week are also those with relatively large adjustment amplitudes. The market continues to focus on China's future policy direction and the progress of China - US trade negotiations [12]. - The US and the EU have reached a trade agreement, covering 15% of EU goods exported to the US. The US has reached agreements with important trading partners, which may boost the US dollar in the short term [12]. 3.1.2 Investment Recommendations for Different Metals - **Copper**: The COMEX copper premium over LME copper may decline. Although the "siphon effect" in the US market has ended, the non - US market inventory is low. The domestic copper market is expected to show a situation of weak supply and strong demand, but the short - term upward drive for copper prices is lacking. It is recommended to sell near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options [4]. - **Zinc**: Zinc follows the adjustment. The supply of zinc ingots is increasing, and the demand shows mixed trends. It is recommended to be bearish on rallies [14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The market sentiment has declined. For electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, it is recommended to take a short - selling approach and buy out - of - the - money put options for protection [6]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals of tin are weak in both supply and demand. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach and pay attention to the situation of the ore end and macro - impacts. Buying out - of - the money put options is also suggested [7]. - **Lead**: The lead price is in a consolidation phase. The social inventory is rising, but the demand is recovering. It is recommended to go long on dips and use a wide - range option straddle strategy [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The overall supply of refined nickel is in surplus. Nickel and stainless steel are in an adjustment phase. It is recommended to be bearish on rallies for nickel and take a short - selling approach within the range for stainless steel [9]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and daily percentage changes of various non - ferrous metals futures are presented, including copper (- 0.32% to 79000), zinc (- 1.05% to 22645), aluminum (- 0.70% to 20615), etc. [17] 3.3 Third Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Information on the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector is provided, including the percentage change, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position difference, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors for each variety such as Shanghai Aluminum, Shanghai Gold, etc. [19] 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and daily percentage changes of various non - ferrous metals are given, such as the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous copper spot price (- 0.48% to 79260 yuan/ton), the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 0 zinc spot average price (- 0.57% to 22630 yuan/ton), etc. [20] 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For each metal (copper, zinc, aluminum, etc.), relevant industry chain charts are provided, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Charts related to the arbitrage of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change, the Shanghai zinc - Shanghai lead price difference, etc. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Options - Charts related to the options of various non - ferrous metals are provided, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume and open interest changes, and the ratio of call to put open interest.

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - The current demand for copper is temporarily weak due to the downstream off - season and weakened trans - shipment momentum, but the balance will be relatively tight after August. The annual apparent demand for copper is expected to be in the range of 4.8% - 5.5%. A short - term cautious but medium - to long - term bullish view on Shanghai copper is maintained, and virtual inventory can be considered to be established in the third quarter [1]. - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly, and the demand in August is expected to be in the seasonal off - season. There will be a slight inventory build - up in July and August. Pay attention to demand and consider inter - month and domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [1][2]. - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is seasonally weak. Short - term advice is to wait and see, hold domestic - foreign positive arbitrage, and pay attention to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable. Pay attention to the opportunity of the shrinking ratio of nickel to stainless steel [6]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel are weak. With the spread of anti - involution expectations in the short - term macro - environment, pay attention to the policy trend [6][7]. - Lead prices declined slightly this week. Supply and demand are expected to increase slightly in July, but inventory build - up is still expected. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week [9]. - Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply may decline slightly, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell lightly on rallies [12]. - For industrial silicon, the production of Hesheng may have a significant impact on the supply - demand balance. The market is currently in a de - stocking stage, and the price trend depends on the resumption of production [15]. - The price of lithium carbonate has risen due to resource - end disturbances. The current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the middle - link. The long - term situation depends on whether the resource - end risks are resolved [17]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the spot price of Shanghai copper decreased from 250 to 95, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1699. Other indicators such as import profit and LME inventory also changed [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The current demand is affected by the off - season and weak trans - shipment. The annual apparent demand is expected to be in the 4.8% - 5.5% range. A short - term cautious but medium - to long - term bullish view is maintained [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the price of Shanghai aluminum ingots decreased by 120, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged. Other indicators such as import profit and LME inventory also changed [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply has increased slightly, and demand in August is expected to be in the off - season. There will be a slight inventory build - up in July and August [1][2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the price of Shanghai zinc ingots decreased by 120, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged. Other indicators such as import profit and LME inventory also changed [5]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is seasonally weak. Short - term advice is to wait and see, hold domestic - foreign positive arbitrage, and pay attention to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the price of Shanghai nickel decreased by 1500, and the inventory of LME increased by 114. Other indicators such as import profit and LME C - 3M also changed [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable. Pay attention to the opportunity of the shrinking ratio of nickel to stainless steel [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of 201 cold - rolled coil increased by 50. Other indicators such as waste stainless steel price also changed [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals are weak. With the spread of anti - involution expectations in the short - term macro - environment, pay attention to the policy trend [6][7]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the spot price premium increased by 5, and the inventory of LME decreased by 2625. Other indicators such as import profit and LME C - 3M also changed [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand are expected to increase slightly in July, but inventory build - up is still expected. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week [9]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the spot import profit increased by 239.11, and the inventory of LME increased by 80. Other indicators such as LME C - 3M also changed [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply may decline slightly, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell lightly on rallies [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the 421 Yunnan basis increased from - 1105 to - 165, and the 553 East China basis increased from 45 to 1035. The number of warehouse receipts increased [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The production of Hesheng has a significant impact on the supply - demand balance. The market is currently in a de - stocking stage, and the price trend depends on the resumption of production [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 1000, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 280. Other indicators such as basis also changed [17]. - **Market Analysis**: The price has risen due to resource - end disturbances. The current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the middle - link. The long - term situation depends on whether the resource - end risks are resolved [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper slightly increased its positions and rose, with the main contract price briefly reaching the 80,000 yuan mark at the end of the session. Macroscopically, the market showed a bullish sentiment, and non - ferrous metals as a whole were in a strong oscillation. Industrially, on Thursday, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 121,800 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons from Monday. Against the backdrop of continuous macro - economic improvement, copper prices are likely to maintain a strong trend [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum oscillated weakly, and its open interest continued to decline. Macroscopically, the market showed a bullish sentiment, and non - ferrous metals as a whole were in a strong oscillation, but aluminum underperformed in the sector. Industrially, on Thursday, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 494,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from Monday. In the short term, there are macro - level positives and industry - level negatives. Attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel oscillated strongly, with little change in open interest, and the main contract price reached the 124,000 yuan mark. Macroscopically, the market showed a bullish sentiment, and non - ferrous metals as a whole were in a strong oscillation, and nickel outperformed in the sector. Industrially, the trading atmosphere in the downstream stainless - steel market improved, which is a short - term positive for nickel prices. Technically, nickel prices increased in positions and broke through the high point in early July, with strong upward momentum, and are expected to maintain a strong trend [7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: US policy changes have affected the recycling market. Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports starting from August 1, and China and the US jointly declared to cut reciprocal tariffs within 90 days. The new tariffs have led to more aluminum scrap being supplied to Mexican consumers. In the US, most aluminum rolling mills have sufficient recycled aluminum reserves, and the price of recycled aluminum scrap remained flat. In Canada, the flow of recycled aluminum decreased, and the factory output shrank significantly. In Thailand, many recycling and processing plants stopped operations due to stricter inspections of illegal waste dumping. On July 24, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 121,800 tons, a decrease of 22,600 tons from the 17th and 3,700 tons from the 21st [9]. - **Aluminum**: On July 24, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 494,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from the 17th and 14,000 tons from the 21st [9]. - **Nickel**: On July 24, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the Jinchuan electrolytic nickel's mainstream premium was +1,900 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,620 yuan/ton; Russian nickel's mainstream premium was +550 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,270 yuan/ton; Norwegian nickel's mainstream premium was +3,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 127,320 yuan/ton; and nickel beans' mainstream premium was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,820 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Multiple charts are provided, including copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][41][44].