1. Market Performance on December 23, 2025 Stock Market - A - share three major indices closed in the red. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.07% to 3919.98 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.27% to 13368.99 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.41% to 3205.01 points. The trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1899.8 billion yuan, a slight increase of 37.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4620.73, a环比 increase of 9.11 [2] Futures Market Energy and Chemicals - The coke weighted index was in narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1719.3, a环比 increase of 9.3 [2] - The coking coal weighted index was in range - bound consolidation, closing at 1113.7 yuan, a环比 increase of 25.1 [3] - The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fluctuated higher due to factors such as the rise of US sugar and short - covering. As of December 20, 2025/26 sugar - making season, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 7.8122 million tons, a decrease of 1.3675 million tons (14.9%) compared with the same period last year; sugar production was 639,300 tons, a decrease of 106,200 tons (14.25%) [4] - Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly higher on December 23 due to short - covering boosted by the rising crude oil price. As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao area (bonded and general trade) was 5.152 million tons, a环比 increase of 163,000 tons (3.28%) [4] Agricultural Products - On the international market, CBOT soybean futures fell slightly on December 23. Brazil is expected to have a record - breaking harvest this year. AgRural expects Brazil's soybean output to reach 180.4 million tons. In the domestic market, the M2605 main contract closed at 2741 yuan/ton, up 0.22%. China's soybean imports in November were 8.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.32% [6] - The LH2603 main contract of live pigs closed at 11,415 yuan/ton on December 23, up 0.62%. The supply of live pigs in the market is high, and the demand shows marginal improvement [6] - Palm oil continued to rise on December 23. The P2605 contract closed at 8486, up 0.86%. Indonesia's 2026 biofuel quota is 15.646 million kiloliters, and it plans to increase the palm oil blending ratio to 50% (B50) next year [6] Metals - The main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 94,030 yuan/ton, closed at 93,930 yuan/ton, with the highest at 94,290 yuan/ton and the lowest at 93,620 yuan/ton on December 23. The trading volume was 139,000 lots and the open interest was 241,000 lots [6] - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,135 yuan/ton on the night of December 23, and the cotton inventory increased by 13 lots compared with the previous day [6] - The 2603 main contract of logs opened at 779, closed at 770, with a daily reduction of 87 lots on December 23. The spot price of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [7] - The 2605 main contract of iron ore closed down 0.26% at 778.5 yuan on December 23. The global iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [7] - The 2602 main contract of asphalt closed up 0.27% at 2977 yuan on December 23. The asphalt production of local refineries in January decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly [7] - On December 23, rb2605 of steel was reported at 3128 yuan/ton, and hc2605 was reported at 3281 yuan/ton. The demand in the off - season shows certain resilience, and the steel price may fluctuate in a narrow range [7] - The ao2601 of alumina was reported at 2520 yuan/ton on December 23. The domestic alumina production capacity is high, the supply pressure exists, and the downstream demand increment is limited [7] - The al2602 of Shanghai aluminum was reported at 22,195 yuan/ton on December 23. The supply is stable, the inventory is accumulating, and the demand is cooling [7] 2. Key Factors Affecting the Market Coke and Coking Coal - For coke, the third round of price cuts has fully landed, the coking profit is average, the daily output has slightly decreased, the inventory has slightly decreased, and the downstream procurement is mainly on - demand [4] - For coking coal, some coal mines have reduced or stopped production at the end of the year. The output of coking coal mines has slightly decreased, the spot auction transactions are okay, the terminal inventory has increased, and the total inventory has slightly increased [4] Other Commodities - For copper, the copper concentrate processing fee is low, the mine supply tension is expected to intensify, the smelting cost support is strong, the refined copper supply has slightly increased, the downstream procurement sentiment is weak, and the new - energy copper foil demand is relatively strong [6] - For live pigs, the supply side is under pressure due to high - speed slaughter, and the demand side has a certain boost due to the approaching peak of curing in the southwest region [6] - For palm oil, Indonesia's biofuel policy and the test of the B50 standard have an impact on the market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market experienced significant movements, with platinum futures reaching the daily limit up and other metals also showing notable gains [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for platinum futures on the Guangxi Futures Exchange hit the daily limit, increasing by 7% to a price of 657.65 yuan per gram [1] - Silver and palladium prices rose by over 5%, while nickel and lithium carbonate saw increases of more than 3% [1] Group 2: Declines in Other Commodities - On the downside, butadiene rubber fell by over 2%, and tin, ethylene glycol (EG), and coking coal dropped by more than 1% [1]

国内期货主力合约涨跌不一，广期所钯、铂均封涨停板，沪银涨超6%，碳酸锂涨超5%，集运指数（欧 线）涨超4%，PTA涨超3%。跌幅方面，塑料、玻璃、PVC跌近2%。 国内期货主力合约涨跌不一，广期所钯、铂均封涨停板，沪银涨超6%，碳酸锂涨超5%，集运指数（欧 线）涨超4%，PTA涨超3%。跌幅方面，塑料、玻璃、PVC跌近2%。 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The overall futures market experienced fluctuations with a divergence in performance across sectors during the week of December 15 to December 19, with energy and chemical sectors performing well while agricultural products generally declined [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil decreased by 0.50% and crude oil by 2.66%, while the black series saw coking coal increase by 9.02% and iron ore by 2.28% [1] - Precious metals maintained strength with gold rising by 1.01% and silver by 3.26%, while agricultural products like eggs and palm oil saw declines of 1.58% and 3.19% respectively [1] Group 2: Polyester Market Dynamics - PX and PTA futures prices surged, reaching new highs not seen in three months, with PX hitting a peak since March and PTA surpassing 4900 yuan/ton [2] - The PTA market is experiencing a de-stocking trend, with stable production levels in the polyester industry, maintaining an operating rate of 86.9% [2][3] - Analysts suggest that despite expectations of weakening terminal demand, the stable production and high maintenance rates in PTA support a positive market outlook [3] Group 3: Gold Market Outlook - Gold prices are fluctuating near historical highs, with optimistic market expectations for future prices, as Goldman Sachs predicts gold to reach 4900 USD/oz by 2026 [4] - Global gold supply increased by 3% year-on-year to 1313 tons in Q3, while demand surged, leading to upward pressure on prices [4] - The core factors influencing gold prices include the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with recent rate cuts providing macroeconomic support for gold's upward trend [5] Group 4: U.S. Labor Market Insights - The U.S. labor market showed mixed signals, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since October 2021, and total unemployed persons reaching approximately 7.83 million [6][7] - Non-farm payrolls added 64,000 jobs in November, primarily in healthcare, construction, and social assistance, while federal government jobs saw a significant decline [6] - Analysts indicate that the labor market's weakening signals may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious stance on future rate cuts [6][7] Group 5: Inflation Data and Economic Implications - The U.S. CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year in November, lower than the previous month's 3%, but the data is viewed with caution due to collection issues stemming from a government shutdown [8][9] - The core CPI also increased by 2.6%, but economists remain skeptical about the sustainability of this trend given the data's limitations [8][9] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing price stability and full employment, with future policy directions likely to be sensitive to upcoming economic data [9][10] Group 6: Sector-Specific Insights - In the methanol sector, supply is expected to tighten in the first half of the year, but increased imports and weak demand may lead to a shift towards oversupply in the latter half of 2026 [11] - The coking coal market is seeing a reduction in supply due to high inventory levels and weak demand, with a significant decrease in inventory observed [11] - The aluminum market remains under pressure from oversupply, while the agricultural sector, particularly soybean meal, is facing downward price adjustments due to disappointing export progress [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Grain Index experienced a slight decline of 0.12% on Friday, closing at 29.1033 points, with a cumulative drop of 1.45% for the week [1] Group 1: Commodity Futures Performance - CBOT corn futures decreased by 0.28%, settling at $4.4325 per bushel, with a weekly increase of 0.57% [1] - CBOT wheat futures rose by 0.44%, reaching $5.0950 per bushel, but recorded a weekly decline of 3.82% [1] - CBOT soybean futures fell by 0.24%, closing at $10.5950 per bushel, with a weekly decrease of 2.55% [1] - Soymeal futures dropped by 0.33%, accumulating a weekly decline of 1.41% [1] - Soy oil futures decreased by 0.50%, with a cumulative weekly drop of 4.31% [1]

【冠通期货研究报告】 沪铜日报：震荡偏强 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 19 日 【行情分析】 今日沪铜低开低走，日内保持偏强。美国 11 月 CPI 数据公布，整体和核心数据均大 幅低于预期。11 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.7%，低于预期的上涨 3.1%。11 月 SMM 中国电解铜产 量 110.31 万吨，环比增加 1.15 万吨，环比增幅 1.05%，同比增幅 9.75%。1-11 月累计 产量同比增加 128.94 万吨，增幅为 11.76%。SMM 预计 12 月电解铜产量环比增加 6.57 万 吨，增幅 5.96%，同比增幅 6.69%。本周铜价上涨，铜材利润受挤压，铜板带生产积极性 弱势，产能利用率下滑，生产企业出于原材料价格、库存以及需求等多重因素考虑，普 遍放慢生产节奏；铜管企业受资金压力制约，多数企业选择观望，仅维持刚性订单的原 料提货，市场交易活跃度受到明显抑制。铜箔方面受储能电池需求及终端新能源汽车前 置需求的影响，保持高景气水平。市场受美国经济数据的影响，情绪偏强，矿端加工费 长协后续进展有望对盘面作出意见，短期高位震荡。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 投资有风险，入市需 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange's crude oil futures closed up by 0.07%, reaching 428.6 yuan per barrel [1] - The main contract for Shanghai gold rose by 0.02%, closing at 980 yuan per gram [1] - The main contract for Shanghai silver fell by 1.42%, closing at 15,228 yuan per kilogram [1]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on December 17, 2025 - A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.19% to 3870.28, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.40% to 13224.51, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.39% to 3175.91. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1811.1 billion yuan, an increase of 87 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - CSI 300 Index: Closed at 4579.88, a rise of 82.32 [2]. - Futures: - Coke: The weighted index closed at 1610.9, a rise of 18.5 [2]. - Coking coal: The weighted index closed at 1045.1 yuan, a rise of 4.8 [3]. - Zhengzhou Sugar (2605 contract): Oscillated and slightly declined during the day and slightly rose at night [4]. - Rubber: Oscillated upward during the day and slightly rose at night [4]. - Soybean Meal (M2605 contract): Closed at 2756 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.76% [5]. - Live Pigs (LH2603 contract): Closed at 11435 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.75% [5]. - Palm Oil (P2605 contract): Closed at 8342, a decline of 0.81% [5]. - Shanghai Copper (2602 contract): Closed at 92820, showing a strong - oscillating pattern [5]. - Cotton: The night - session of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13955 yuan/ton [5]. - Iron Ore (2605 contract): Rose 1.25% to 768 yuan [6]. - Asphalt (2602 contract): Rose 3.58% to 3012 yuan [6]. - Logs (2603 contract): Opened at 771.5, closed at 769, with an increase of 1218 lots in positions [6]. - Alumina (ao2601): Closed at 2558 yuan/ton [6]. - Shanghai Aluminum (al2602): Closed at 21915 yuan/ton [6]. - Steel (rb2605 and hc2605): Closed at 3084 yuan/ton and 3245 yuan/ton respectively [6]. 2. Price - related Information and Market Analysis Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: Inventory increased by 14.23%. The short - term demand negative effect of steel export license management has been priced in. Although "industrial regulation" was mentioned, there is limited space for large - scale production cuts. Import coal has obvious incremental expectations, and the short - term winter storage expectation is pessimistic [4]. - Coking coal: The supply of coking coal and coke is increasing. Demand may decline with the weakening of molten iron (molten iron decreased by 3.10 tons). Inventory is accumulating, and the inventory of mine clean coal increased by 3.36%. The price of some types of coking coal and coke has changed:临汾 low - sulfur main coking coal is 1500 yuan/ton (unchanged),乌海 1/3 coking coal is 1100 yuan/ton (+30),临汾 first - grade metallurgical coke is 1805 yuan/ton (-55), and Rizhao quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1735 yuan/ton (-55) [4]. Sugar - Brazilian sugar production in the second half of November was 724,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.94%. The French Ministry of Agriculture raised the 2025 beet production forecast to 35.55 million tons, a 9.1% increase from last year [4]. Rubber - Affected by the border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia, the spot price in Southeast Asia rose, and Shanghai rubber oscillated upward [4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybeans oscillated weakly. Brazilian soybeans are in the growth season with favorable weather. Brazil's December soybean export is expected to be 357 million tons. In Argentina, 97% of the sown soybeans are in normal or good condition. Domestically, the supply of imported soybeans is abundant, but the extension of customs clearance time eases the supply pressure. Brazilian soybean's good harvest prospects weaken US soybean export demand, and the upward driving force of soybean meal is insufficient [5]. Live Pigs - The supply of live pigs is abundant due to the strong slaughter intention of farmers. The end - of - year concentrated slaughter pressure still exists. However, with the approaching of the pickling peak in Southwest China, the consumption demand has increased in the short term [5]. Palm Oil - The price of palm oil futures continued to decline. The expected export volume of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 15 increased by 30.39% compared with the same period last month [5]. Copper - The US non - farm data boosted the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, creating a warm market atmosphere. However, the downstream copper consumption is weak, and the opening rate remains low, but the mine end provides strong support [5]. Iron Ore - The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil increased, the arrival volume rebounded, the port inventory accumulated, and the molten iron production decreased. The iron ore market is in a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, and the price is in an oscillatory trend [6]. Asphalt - The capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, the inventory reduction slowed down, and the demand in the off - season weakened. The asphalt market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is oscillating [6]. Logs - There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. Attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [6]. Alumina - The operating capacity remains high, and the import window is open, while the demand growth is limited. The supply pressure exists, and the warehouse receipt inventory is rising. The demand at the end of the year has limited short - term impact on the market, but the spot trading atmosphere is warm [6]. Aluminum - The supply is stable, the downstream aluminum water consumption capacity is okay, but the inventory in production areas is accumulating, and the social inventory is low. The demand is weak, and the spot performance is poor, but some downstream industries have stable demand [6]. Steel - The steel market in the off - season is in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Traders are reducing inventory, and downstream terminals are purchasing as needed. The cost provides some support for steel prices [6].

每经AI快讯，12月17日，多晶硅期货主力合约日内涨超5%，续创上市以来新高。 每经AI快讯，12月17日，多晶硅期货主力合约日内涨超5%，续创上市以来新高。 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on December 15, 2025 - A-shares: The three major A-share indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.55% to 3867.92 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.10% to 13112.09 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 1.77% to 3137.80 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1773.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 318.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - CSI 300 Index: It fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4552.06, a decrease of 28.89 from the previous day [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: The weighted index of coke rebounded strongly, closing at 1589.2, up 14.3 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal rebounded from oversold levels, closing at 1040.0 yuan, up 31.3 from the previous day [2][3] 2. Futures Market Analysis Coking Coal and Coke - Price Influencing Factors: Large steel mills in Hebei and Shandong lowered the purchase price of coke by 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and the second round of price cuts was basically completed. The spot market sentiment stabilized, but the steel mills' procurement willingness did not recover. Recently, coke enterprises in the northern main production areas received environmental protection restrictions, and the production load of coke ovens is expected to decline. The daily output of molten iron decreased seasonally, and the start - up of coke enterprises was restricted by environmental protection, so the rigid demand for coking coal gradually declined. The enthusiasm of steel and coke enterprises for raw material inventory was not high, and the pit - mouth transactions were still sluggish. The winter storage had not started, but the daily output of raw coal in mines was also declining, so the supply pressure did not increase significantly [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Market Trend: Although the US sugar rebounded last Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract did not follow. Due to the downward adjustment of the spot price and short - selling pressure, the contract oscillated and declined on Monday and in the night session. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) estimated that the sugarcane planting area in Brazil in 2025 would be 9.39843 million hectares, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous month's estimate and an increase of 1.9% from the previous year. The sugarcane output was estimated to be 697.015577 million tons, a decrease of 0.4% from the previous month's estimate and a decrease of 1.4% from the previous year [4] Rubber - Market Influencing Factors: The Thai Rubber Authority announced an additional budget of 2.28 billion Thai baht to promote rubber price stability measures. The inventory coefficient of automobile dealers in November 2025 was 1.57, above the warning line. As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, an increase of 10,200 tons or 2.08% from the previous period. Affected by these factors, the Shanghai rubber oscillated on Monday, and the varieties rose and fell. In the night session, the Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher [4] Palm Oil - Market Performance: On December 15, palm oil continued last week's weak consolidation. The main contract P2605 closed with a doji star, with the highest price of 8550, the lowest price of 8442, and the closing price of 8492, a decrease of 0.70% from the previous day. The export volume of palm oil from Malaysia from December 1 - 15 was 587,657 tons, a decrease of 16.37% from the same period last month [6] Soybean Meal - International Market: Due to concerns about the slowdown of US soybean export demand and the high - yield of Brazilian soybeans, the CBOT soybeans were weak on Monday. Brazilian soybeans have basically completed sowing and entered the growing season, and the weather is generally favorable for crop growth. The early - maturing soybeans in Brazil will enter the harvest period in mid - January. Multiple institutions estimate that its output will still be in the historical high range of over 175 million tons. In Argentina, 97% of the sown soybeans are in normal or good growth, and the soil moisture is suitable. The US Department of Agriculture estimated the soybean output of Brazil and Argentina in the December supply - demand report to be 175 million tons and 48.5 million tons respectively, the same as in November [6] - Domestic Market: On December 15, the main contract M2605 closed at 2752 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43%. The supply of imported soybeans is abundant, and oil mills maintain a high crushing rate, resulting in a large output of soybean meal. However, the news of the extended customs clearance time of imported soybeans has fermented, and feed and breeding enterprises need to stock up in advance for the upcoming peak demand season, which eases the supply pressure of soybean meal and boosts the spot price. The high - yield prospect of Brazilian soybeans weakens the export demand of US soybeans, and the domestic supply pressure is concentrated on the far - month contracts. Affected by the US soybean market hitting a 7 - week low, the domestic soybean meal futures market was under pressure and declined [6] Live Pigs - Market Performance: On December 15, the main contract LH2603 closed at 11,305 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18%. The enthusiasm of the breeding end for slaughter is high. Large - scale pig enterprises have the expectation of increasing sales at the end of the year to complete the annual plan. The slaughter willingness of retail farmers and secondary fattening households has also increased. The market supply of live pigs is continuously abundant, which directly and continuously suppresses the futures price. In the short term, the pressure of concentrated slaughter at the end of the year still exists, and the pattern of loose supply is difficult to improve quickly. The domestic temperature has gradually decreased, which has promoted the marginal improvement of pork consumption. The traditional pickling cycle in the southwest region has officially started, and the demand for pickled pork and sausage has increased. The operating rate of slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly compared with the previous period, providing certain demand support. However, the current consumption recovery is still relatively mild, and there has not been a large - scale concentrated procurement phenomenon, which is difficult to form the core driving force for price increase. The live pig market is still in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [6] Shanghai Copper - Market Performance: The main contract 2601 of Shanghai copper closed at 92,490 yuan/ton. The main continuous contract opened at 93,500 yuan/ton, with the highest price of 94,360 yuan/ton, the lowest price of 90,750 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 92,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1680 yuan from the previous settlement price. The trading volume of the main contract increased to 228,700 lots, and the open interest increased by 31,200 lots to 219,800 lots. The trading volume of the main continuous contract was 183,400 lots, and the open interest was 165,800 lots. Due to the cooling of the macro - market preference, the wavering of the Fed's policy, and the decline of global stock markets, the concern spread to the metal market and dragged down the copper price. On the other hand, December 15 was the last trading day of the SHFE copper 2512 contract, and the 2025 long - term contracts were basically completed. The trade activity declined, and the downstream procurement was weak due to the high copper price, which further affected the trend of Shanghai copper [8] Iron Ore - Market Performance: On December 15, the main contract 2605 of iron ore oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 0.92% and a closing price of 753 yuan. The global shipment volume of iron ore increased month - on - month, the arrival volume continued to decline month - on - month, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the terminal demand decreased in the off - season, the decline of molten iron output further expanded, and the short - term iron ore price was in an oscillating trend [8] Asphalt - Market Performance: On December 15, the main contract 2602 of asphalt oscillated and closed up, with an increase of 0.54% and a closing price of 2963 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt decreased slightly, the inventory reduction rate continued to slow down, the demand in the northern region was flat, and the terminal demand in the southern region was weak. It was in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the short - term asphalt price showed an oscillating operation [8] Logs - Market Performance: The log 2601 contract opened at 753.5 on Monday, with the lowest price of 751, the highest price of 765, and closed at 753.5, with a daily reduction of 2234 lots. Attention should be paid to position transfer and spot - end support. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 720 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and attention should be paid to the spot - end price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment on the price [8][9] Cotton - Market Performance: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,020 yuan/ton in the night session on Monday. The cotton inventory increased by 57 lots from the previous trading day. The area control target for the target price of Xinjiang cotton in the 2026/27 season was set at about 36 million mu, a reduction of 5 - 7 million mu or more than 10% from the actual sown area of 41 - 43 million mu in 2025. Xinjiang's cotton planting will undergo a strong structural adjustment [9] Steel - Market Performance: On December 15, rb2605 closed at 3074 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3233 yuan/ton. After the central important meeting, multiple departments have intensively deployed key tasks for 2026, including promoting investment to stop falling and stabilize through multiple measures and comprehensively rectifying "involution - style" competition. Incremental policies will be introduced and implemented according to the situation next year. The macro - policy still has room for action, which helps to stabilize market sentiment. The coking coal futures rebounded sharply on Monday, providing certain support for steel prices from the cost side. However, the pressure on the supply - demand fundamentals of the steel market is gradually increasing. It is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the off - season, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. In the short term, steel prices will be adjusted narrowly [9] Alumina - Market Performance: On December 15, ao2601 closed at 2537 yuan/ton. After the futures price fell below 2500 yuan/ton, it rebounded quickly, and a large number of short - position funds took profits. The current futures price has fallen below the industry's average cash cost line, and the inventory of the entire industrial chain has climbed to a historical peak. Some production enterprises are carrying out maintenance, and some downstream enterprises said they will increase raw material reserves at an appropriate time. Against the background of industry production losses, high - cost production capacity is gradually withdrawing [10] Shanghai Aluminum - Market Performance: On December 15, al2602 closed at 21,920 yuan/ton. Although the macro - level is full of positive atmosphere, it cannot offset the suppression of the fundamentals and capital side in the short term. Domestically, the central economic work conference made it clear that the proactive fiscal policy will continue to be implemented next year. Overseas, due to the unclear inflation trend and the strength of the labor market, the market faces uncertainty about the direction of the US monetary policy next year. In terms of supply, the current operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is 44.39 million tons, and the operating capacity has increased slightly under high profits, with little overall change. In terms of demand, although December is the traditional consumption off - season, the consumption resilience of industries such as automobiles, electricity, and electronics is strong, and there has been no over - seasonal weakening. The proportion of molten aluminum has also remained high [10]