Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on October 22, 2025. Some commodities like asphalt and SC crude oil rose, while others such as沪金 and沪银 declined. Different commodities have different supply - demand fundamentals and market outlooks, with some expected to be in a strong - side or weak - side oscillation, and some suggest temporary exit for observation due to factors like upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations [5][6]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Futures Market Overview - As of the close on October 22, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Asphalt rose nearly 3%, and some commodities like rapeseed, SC crude oil, etc. rose over 2%.沪金 and沪银 fell nearly 4%, and some like palm oil and rapeseed meal fell over 1%. In the stock index futures, most contracts declined, while in the bond futures, most contracts rose or remained flat. In terms of fund flow,沪金 2512, lithium carbonate 2601, and沪铝 2512 had fund inflows, while中证 1000 2512,中证 500 2512, and沪深 300 2512 had outflows [5][6]. b) Market Analysis - **Copper (沪铜)**: It opened low and moved weakly. Supply - side factors like copper mine accidents and low inventory limited the decline. Although the high price was resisted by the downstream, the export window was open and it was in the peak season, so the market was expected to be mainly in a range - bound oscillation [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It opened low and moved strongly. It showed a pattern of strong supply and demand. With rising prices, production profit improved, and demand from the downstream battery industry was strong. However, demand was expected to decrease slightly next month, and it was expected to be in a strong - side oscillation in the short term [10]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + planned to increase production in November, which would increase supply pressure. The demand peak season ended, and inventory increased. Geopolitical risks decreased. The market was expected to be in a weak - side oscillation in the medium - to - long term, and it was recommended to exit the market temporarily and watch the Sino - US trade negotiation [11][13]. - **Asphalt**: Supply was at a high level, with开工率 slightly rising. Demand was restricted by factors like funds and weather. With the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the strengthening of the basis in Shandong, it was recommended to exit the market and observe [14]. - **PP**: Downstream开工率 was low. Supply increased with new capacity coming on - stream, and although it was in the peak season, demand was less than expected. It was expected to be in a weak - side oscillation [15][16]. - **Plastic**:开工率 was at a medium level. Supply increased with new capacity. Although the agricultural film was in the peak season, demand was less than expected. It was expected to be in a weak - side oscillation [17]. - **PVC**: Supply开工率 decreased, but was still high compared to the same period in previous years. Export expectations weakened, and inventory pressure was large. With the lack of actual policies and high inventory, it was recommended to exit the market and observe [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: It opened low and moved strongly. Supply was tight due to production control and environmental policies, and demand was supported by the peak season. It was recommended to pay attention to the impact of major meetings [20][21]. - **Urea**: It opened flat and moved strongly. Supply decreased slightly, and the cost increased due to rising coal prices. Demand was weak as the autumn fertilizer season ended. The market was expected to stop falling and stabilize [22].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic futures main contracts opened mixed in early trading, with significant declines in silver and gold futures while some agricultural products saw gains [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Chicken egg futures rose over 1% [1] - Shipping European routes, live pigs, and aluminum oxide futures increased nearly 1% [1] - Shanghai silver and gold futures fell over 5% [1] - Soybean meal and soybean futures dropped over 1% [1]

Core Insights - The article reports on the price movements of various commodities on October 21, highlighting a decline in gold and silver prices, while iron ore and crude oil saw slight increases [1] Group 1: Commodity Price Movements - Shanghai gold decreased by 2.89% [1] - Shanghai silver fell by 3.89% [1] - Iron ore increased by 0.46% [1] - Coking coal dropped by over 1% [1] - Crude oil rose by 1.19% [1] - Fuel oil increased by 1.06% [1] - Rubber saw a rise of 0.8% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with significant gains in certain commodities while others experienced declines [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Live pig prices increased by over 3% [1] - Coking coal prices rose by more than 2% [1] - Other commodities such as coke, apples, international copper, Shanghai copper, and industrial silicon saw increases of over 1% [1] Group 2: Declines - Shanghai silver prices fell by more than 3% [1] - Prices for polysilicon, pure benzene, and styrene dropped nearly 2% [1]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on October 17, 2025 - A-share market: The three major A-share indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.95% to 3839.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 3.04% to 12688.94 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 3.36% to 2935.37 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1938.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 7 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Index performance: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4514.23, down 104.19 [2]. 2. Futures Market Performance 2.1. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted index of coke fluctuated within a narrow range, closing at 1700.3, up 28.2. The spot price of coke at ports remained stable. Due to rising raw - material prices and environmental protection inspections, coke supply slightly shrank, while demand from steel mills was strong [3][5]. - Coking coal: The weighted index of coking coal oscillated in a narrow range, closing at 1194.0 yuan, up 16.6. The prices of some coking coal varieties changed. Supply was affected by production at coal mines, and demand from downstream enterprises was mainly for rigid replenishment [4][5]. 2.2. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as reduced imports from Pakistan and increased European exports, the US sugar market declined. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract rose slightly at night due to short - covering. Brazilian sugar production in the second half of September increased by 10.76% year - on - year to 3.14 million tons [5]. 2.3. Rubber - Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly. As of October 17, the inventory and warehouse receipts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber decreased. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises recovered [6]. 2.4. Palm Oil - The palm oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange oscillated at night. Although the export situation in Malaysia was better than expected and there were expectations of export control in Indonesia, the price lacked upward momentum [7]. 2.5. Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures rose. The US soybean harvest was at its peak, and the export expectation to China decreased. Domestically, the soybean meal futures rose. The supply of soybean meal was abundant, and the futures market lacked upward drivers [8]. 2.6. Live Hogs - Live hog futures weakened. The market was in a stage of over - supply, and consumption was in the off - season, resulting in a bearish fundamental situation [9]. 2.7. Shanghai Copper - With a clear contraction in global copper mine supply, ongoing domestic smelter maintenance, and increasing macro - economic easing expectations, copper prices were expected to be supported. The demand was likely to be released when prices declined, and the copper market was likely to be oscillating strongly [9]. 2.8. Cotton - The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was 13425 yuan/ton at night. Cotton inventory decreased, and the short - fiber price declined. The cotton picking progress in Xinjiang accelerated [9]. 2.9. Iron Ore - The iron ore 2601 main contract declined slightly. The supply was relatively loose, and the price was in an oscillating trend [10]. 2.10. Asphalt - The asphalt 2601 main contract declined. The capacity utilization rate increased slightly, and the demand showed no obvious peak - season characteristics, with prices expected to oscillate [10][11]. 2.11. Logs - The log futures price rebounded near the 800 mark. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the market was gradually destocking [11]. 2.12. Steel - Steel mills in Guangdong were in a state of serious loss. Steel mills issued price - limit sales notices, which were expected to stabilize market confidence and prices [11]. 2.13. Alumina - The port inventory of bauxite decreased, and the price was firm. Alumina supply might contract due to profit losses of smelters, while demand was stable [12]. 2.14. Shanghai Aluminum - The supply of electrolytic aluminum was expected to increase slightly, and the demand was boosted by the macro - economic situation and the peak - season effect [12].

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures showed significant divergence in performance from October 13 to October 17, with precious metals, black metals, and base metals leading gains, while energy, chemicals, and agricultural products experienced collective declines [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil fell by 5.54% and crude oil by 6.34% for the week; in the black metal sector, iron ore dropped by 3.02%, while coking coal and coking coke rose by 1.55% and 0.57%, respectively [1] - Precious metals saw substantial increases, with Shanghai gold rising by 10.90% and Shanghai silver by 10.53% [1] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - The oil market faced multiple bearish pressures, with WTI crude futures falling below $80 and Brent crude near $82 per barrel; domestic crude oil prices dropped by 12.41% over the week [2] - OPEC+ continued its production increase plan, adding 137,000 barrels per day, while U.S. shale oil production showed resilience, slightly increasing to 13.636 million barrels per day [2][3] - Demand weakened significantly, with U.S. refinery utilization dropping by 6.7 percentage points to 85.7%, and Chinese refinery utilization at a low of 81.23% [2] Group 3: Pork Market Trends - Domestic live pig futures continued to decline, with the main contract dropping 3.87% to a three-month low, driven by slow trading sentiment and increased outflow from large-scale farms [4] - The supply side remains robust, with the number of breeding sows at 40.38 million, indicating a sufficient long-term supply base [4][5] - Despite expectations for improved demand due to cooler temperatures, actual sales of pork have not met expectations, leading to continued price pressure [4] Group 4: Economic Indicators - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.3% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.3%, with core CPI rising by 1.0% [6][7] - The decline in CPI was primarily driven by a 4.4% drop in food prices, which accounted for a significant portion of the overall decrease [6] - The export growth rate for September was 8.3%, with a cumulative growth of 6.1% for the first three quarters, indicating a recovery in trade despite challenges with U.S. exports [10][11]

Group 1 - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange's crude oil futures closed up by 0.34%, reaching 441.1 yuan per barrel [1] - The main contract for gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 1.27%, settling at 974 yuan per gram [1] - The main contract for silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 3.94%, closing at 11,748 yuan per kilogram [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, with sufficient arrival of imported soybeans and abundant inventories of soybeans and soybean meal, the weak pattern of soybean meal is hard to change, and attention should be paid to the evolution of the trade side. As aquaculture enters the off - season, downstream purchasing and sales are weak, and it will run weakly in the short - term [31]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the global soybean supply is loose, and the continuous upward momentum of the soybean series is limited [32]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Feed and Aquaculture Futures and Spot Price Trends - Futures: The closing price of the M2601 soybean meal futures contract on October 16, 2025, was 2907 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton from the previous week, a decrease of 1.09%. The RM601 rapeseed meal futures contract was 2364 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.92%. The C2601 corn futures contract was 2111 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.26%. The LH2601 live pig futures contract was 11905 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.67%. The JD2511 egg futures contract was 2818 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.85% [4]. - Spot: The spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong on October 16, 2025, was 2920 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous week, a decrease of 0.34%. The rapeseed meal price in China was 2500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.96%. The price of second - class national standard corn with 14.5% moisture in Bayuquan Port was 2150 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38%. The average出栏 price of commercial pigs in Henan was 11.21 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09%. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas in China was 2.93 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.35% [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Information - Cost - side: In the US Midwest, most areas had good weather this week, which was conducive to harvesting. US soybean crushing data was strong. In September, the US soybean crushing volume reached 197.863 million bushels, a 4.2% increase from August and an 11.6% increase from September 2024. Brazil planned to export 2.153936 million tons of soybeans, 672,337 tons of soybean meal, and 1.8898 million tons of corn in the week of October 12 - 18. Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production was expected to be 51.1 million tons, and the 2025/26 soybean planting area was expected to be 17.5 million hectares, a 2.8% decrease from the previous year [8]. - Supply - side: In September 2025, China's soybean imports were 12.869 million tons, a 4.8% month - on - month increase and a 13.2% year - on - year increase [8]. - Demand - side: The domestic soybean crushing volume remained at a high level overall and entered a seasonal downward phase in October. As of the week of October 10, the domestic major oil mills' soybean crushing volume was 1.29 million tons [8]. - Inventory: In the 41st week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased, and the unexecuted contracts increased [8]. 3.3 Supply - side - Import - As of October 16, the CNF price of imported Brazilian soybeans was 481.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous week. The CNF price of imported soybeans from the US West was 444.00 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8 US dollars/ton from the previous week [16]. 3.4 Supply - side - Pressing - As of the week of October 16, the soybean crushing profit was - 123.30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.20 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of October 10, the weekly soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.2365 million tons, a decrease of 1.0255 million tons from the previous week. As of October 10, the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 57%, a recovery of 36 percentage points from the previous week [22]. 3.5 Inventory - side - As of October 17, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 7.1882 million tons, an increase of 0.6085 million tons from the previous week, and it was at a medium level in the past five years. As of October 10, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.0467 million tons, a decrease of 0.1061 million tons from the previous week, and it was at a relatively high level in the past five years [24]. 3.6 Demand - side - As of September 5, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 40,500 tons, a decrease of 130,600 tons from the previous week, and it was at a low level in the past five years [29]. 3.7 Strategy Recommendation - The strong US soybean crushing data overshadowed export concerns, and CBOT soybeans rebounded from the low level. Under the pressure of supply, domestic double - meal continued to decline. The US government's continuous shutdown led to a lack of export sales and supply - demand data, and the market sentiment remained cautious. After the festival, domestic oil mills resumed operation quickly, but the downstream replenishment enthusiasm was poor, resulting in slow inventory reduction of soybean meal. The market is closely watching whether the policy of imposing special port fees on US ships will affect soybean ships. The rapeseed meal market shows a pattern of both supply and demand being weak. The low operating rate of oil mills leads to a tight overall supply of rapeseed meal in the spot market. As the temperature gradually drops, aquaculture enters the off - season, and the overall market trading is light, with mainly rigid demand procurement [31].

Core Insights - Domestic futures market shows mixed performance with major contracts experiencing both gains and losses [2] - SC crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) saw declines exceeding 1%, while the shipping index (European line) increased by over 3% [2] - Notable increases were observed in live pig, polysilicon, and Shanghai gold, each rising by more than 1% [2] Group 1: Market Performance - The main contracts in the domestic futures market exhibited varied trends, with some rising while others fell [2] - SC crude oil and LU fuel oil both dropped more than 1%, indicating a bearish sentiment in these sectors [2] - The shipping index (European line) experienced a significant increase of over 3%, suggesting strong demand or supply chain improvements [2] Group 2: Sector Highlights - Live pig prices rose by over 1%, reflecting potential supply constraints or increased demand in the agricultural sector [2] - Polysilicon prices also increased by more than 1%, which may indicate a positive outlook for the renewable energy sector [2] - Shanghai gold saw a rise exceeding 1%, possibly driven by market reactions to economic conditions or inflation concerns [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the performance of commodity futures, with crude oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropping by 4.55% to 445 yuan per barrel [1] - The main gold contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 0.42%, reaching 913 yuan per gram [1] - The main silver contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 1.37%, settling at 11,059 yuan per kilogram [1]