Group 1 - The domestic futures night market opened with most contracts rising, indicating a positive trend in the market [1] - Gold futures decreased by 0.19%, while silver futures increased by 0.33%, reflecting mixed performance in precious metals [1] - Rebar futures rose by 0.72%, iron ore by 0.57%, and coking coal surged over 3%, suggesting strong demand in the construction and steel industries [1] Group 2 - Glass futures increased by 0.56%, indicating stability in the glass manufacturing sector [1] - Crude oil futures fell by nearly 1%, which may reflect concerns over supply or demand dynamics in the energy market [1] - Soda ash futures rose by 2.3%, suggesting potential growth in the chemical industry [1]

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed a collective upward trend on August 4, 2025, with varying degrees of increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, and the trading volume decreased compared to the previous Friday [1]. - Different futures varieties presented different market conditions. For example, some futures prices fluctuated with factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment [4][7][8]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On August 4, the three major A - share indexes closed up. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.66% to 3583.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.46% to 11041.56 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.50% to 2334.32 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 14986 billion yuan, a decrease of 998 billion yuan compared to the previous Friday. The CSI 300 index showed a strong - trending shock, closing at 4070.70, a rise of 15.77 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On August 4, the coke weighted index fluctuated and sorted, with a closing price of 1646.4, a rise of 9.2. The coking coal weighted index showed a weak shock, with a closing price of 1101.0 yuan, a rise of 19.9 [2][3]. - Coke: The cost increased due to rising coal prices, the profitability of coke enterprises was average, the weekly - on - weekly start - up rate declined slightly, and the supply was relatively stable. The demand side had a small decline in iron - water production, but the absolute level was high. The inventory was depleted under the situation of weak supply and demand, and the futures price fluctuated with raw material prices and market sentiment [4]. - Coking coal: The supply recovery was slow due to safety inspections and production restrictions in some mines. The import volume of Mongolian coal reached a high level this year, and the trading sentiment in the spot market declined. The demand side also showed a weak situation with a decline in the start - up rate of coke enterprises and iron - water production [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the weakening of the US economy and improved global supply, the US sugar price declined on Friday. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract showed a shock - adjustment trend on Monday and a slight increase at night due to technical factors and capital effects [4]. Rubber - Due to a large short - term decline and technical support, as well as bargain - hunting buying, the Shanghai rubber futures rebounded slightly on Monday and continued to rise slightly at night. The total inventory at Qingdao Port decreased last week, with a decrease in both bonded and general trade warehouses [5]. Palm Oil - On August 4, palm oil fluctuated widely. The main contract P2509 closed with a long - lower - shadow阴线. The expected inventory, production, and export volume of Malaysian palm oil in July 2025 all increased compared to June [6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the CBOT soybean futures rose on August 4. The good - quality rate of US soybeans decreased, and the expected soybean production in Brazil increased. Domestically, the soybean meal futures rose slightly on August 4. The inventory continued to accumulate due to sufficient imported soybeans and high oil - mill crushing volume, but the concern about the future supply gap supported the futures price [7]. Live Pigs - On August 4, live pigs continued the weak trend. The supply was sufficient, and the secondary - fattening enthusiasm declined. The demand was weak due to high - temperature weather and school holidays. The cost increased due to rising feed prices, and the market was in a state of loose supply and demand [8]. Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper showed a range - bound shock. The poor US non - farm payroll data increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts, which was theoretically beneficial to copper prices, but tariff policy uncertainty might suppress long - term demand. The global copper inventory was rising, and the demand was weak, but the mining suspension of a Chilean mine and the expected supply - tightening policy supported the copper price [8]. Iron Ore - On August 4, the iron ore 2509 main contract rose with a shock. The global shipment increased last week, the arrival volume decreased, the port inventory decreased, and the iron - water production declined, but the short - term price was in a shock trend [9]. Asphalt - On August 4, the asphalt 2509 main contract declined with a shock. The production capacity utilization rate increased last week, and the demand was expected to recover. The low inventory supported the price, and the short - term price fluctuated [9]. Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13655 yuan/ton at night on Monday. The cotton inventory decreased by 123 lots compared to the previous trading day [9][10]. Logs - The log 2509 contract rose unilaterally on August 4. The external quotation increase drove the internal futures price up. The spot trading was weak, and attention should be paid to factors such as spot prices, import data, and market sentiment [10]. Steel - On August 4, the rb2510 closed at 3204 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 closed at 3417 yuan/ton. The profit game between the upstream and downstream of the black chain intensified, and the trading logic switched to the dual - drive of industrial benefits and valuation repair, with the support of real - estate policies and the steel industry's stable - growth plan [10]. Alumina - On August 4, the ao2509 closed at 3225 yuan/ton. The alumina market was in a game between potential policy benefits and over - supply expectations, with a decline in market sentiment and wide - range fluctuations [11]. Shanghai Aluminum - On August 4, the al2509 closed at 20525 yuan/ton. Overseas macro - pressure led to a decline in aluminum prices, but the stable supply - demand fundamentals and low inventory supported the prices, showing a relatively strong performance [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: Not clearly specified, but market shows signs of limited upward momentum [2] - Pure Benzene: Short - term price is expected to fluctuate, with potential for seasonal improvement in the third - quarter and pressure in the fourth - quarter [3] - PX and PTA:中期加工差有修复驱动，但需等待下游需求恢复 [5] - Ethylene Glycol: Expected to continue the downward trend [5] - Short - fiber: Considered for long - position allocation in the medium - term [5] - Bottle - chip: Long - term pressure from over - capacity limits processing margin repair [5] - Methanol: Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies [6] - Urea: Short - term market is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] - PVC: Short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - Caustic Soda: Futures price is expected to face pressure at high levels in the long - term [7] - Soda Ash: Expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [8] - Glass: Market returns to real - world trading after the subsiding of sentiment [8] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is generally in a complex situation with a mix of supply - demand imbalances, cost factors, and policy impacts across different sectors [2][3][5] - Different products have different supply - demand characteristics, and their price trends are affected by factors such as raw material prices, downstream demand, and inventory levels [2][3][5] Summaries by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures closed down with limited market digestion capacity and weak upward momentum [2] - Polyolefin futures showed narrow - range fluctuations. PE had increased supply pressure and limited demand improvement, while PP had inventory transfer and weak demand [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene had cost support from rising oil prices but faced weak supply - demand. It is recommended to conduct monthly - spread band trading [3] - Styrene futures had strong cost support but weak supply - demand, with high supply and stable demand [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices declined due to weak domestic commodity sentiment. PX had overseas device shutdowns and PTA had reduced load [5] - Ethylene glycol prices continued to fall with stable demand and increasing domestic supply [5] - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices followed raw materials down. Short - fiber had potential for medium - term improvement, while bottle - chip faced long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices fell with increased imports and low - level inventory. Attention should be paid to macro - policies [6] - Urea futures hit a new low. The market was in the demand off - season with weak short - term trends [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC continued to weaken with high supply and increasing inventory during the off - season [7] - Caustic soda ran weakly with improved comprehensive profits but high - level supply pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash touched the daily limit down with supply - demand pressure and expected weak short - term fluctuations [8] - Glass also touched the daily limit down. The market returned to real - world trading with weakening sales and inventory accumulation [8]

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On July 29, A-share market's three major indices rose collectively, with Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index hitting new highs for the year. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.33% to 3609.71 points, Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64% to 11289.41 points, and ChiNext Index rose 1.86% to 2406.59 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1803.2 billion yuan, an increase of 60.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index showed a strengthening trend on July 29, closing at 4152.02, up 16.2 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 29, the weighted coke index showed a weak oscillation, closing at 1656.9, down 35.4; the weighted coking coal index maintained a consolidation trend, closing at 1170.5 yuan, down 43.7 [2][3]. - For coke, the spot price at ports decreased, with Rizhao Port's quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at 1400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. Some steel mills in Tangshan and Tianjin raised the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton from July 29, 2025. After the fourth price increase, coking enterprises transferred costs to steel mills, and the overall start - up of coking enterprises was stable. After the previous price increase, steel enterprises' profit per ton of steel was generally over 200 yuan/ton, but after the rapid price increase, the exchange took cooling measures, and some participants began to sell actively [4]. - For coking coal, the price of main coking coal in Lvliang area decreased by 118 yuan to 1331 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was weak. Some traders lowered prices due to the fear of high prices after the futures limit - down. Some steel mills in Tangshan and Tianjin accepted the fourth price increase of coke. Currently, coking enterprises' production profit is in a loss of about 50 yuan/ton [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Boosted by the rising crude oil price, US sugar rebounded on Monday. Affected by the rise of US sugar, short - sellers closed positions, driving the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract to rise on Tuesday. At night, the contract fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. Analysts expect Brazil's central - southern region to have a sugarcane crushing volume of 48.3 million tons in the first half of July, a sugar output of 3.3 million tons, and an ethanol output of 2.19 billion liters in July, with year - on - year increases of 11.3%, 12.5%, and 2.3% respectively [5]. Rubber - Due to the large short - term decline, Shanghai rubber oscillated and adjusted slightly lower on Tuesday. At night, it continued to consolidate and closed slightly higher. In June 2025, China's car tire dealer price composite index was 94.06, down 0.51% month - on - month; the truck and bus tire dealer price composite index was 99.08, down 0.29% month - on - month [6][7]. Soybean Meal - In the international market on July 29, CBOT soybean futures fell. The weather forecast showed lower temperatures and periodic rainfall in the US Midwest this week, enhancing the expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest. As of the week ending July 27, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 70%, higher than expected. Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 12.05 million tons. In the domestic market, the soybean meal futures price oscillated. Sufficient imported soybeans and high crushing volume in oil mills led to high soybean meal production and increased inventory, and the weakening of the US soybean market weakened cost support, so the soybean meal price may continue to be weak [7]. Live Pigs - On July 29, the live pig futures price was weak. Recently, the slaughtering sentiment of farmers was strong, and the supply of live pigs was abundant. High - temperature weather led to weak terminal consumption, and the consumption of pork was insufficient. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig market is in a stage of increasing supply. As of the end of June, the number of fertile sows was 40.43 million, 103.7% of the normal level, laying a foundation for abundant pig supply in the second half of the year [8]. Palm Oil - On July 28, palm oil fluctuated widely and then tested the support level again. The main contract P2509 closed with a small positive line with a long lower shadow, closing at 8970, up 0.27%. According to CIMB Securities, if Indonesia implements the B50 biofuel regulation, its domestic palm oil consumption demand may increase by 3 million tons, equivalent to 6.2% of its crude palm oil output in 2024. However, since August 1, 2025, the US has imposed additional import tariffs of 19% and 25% on Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil respectively [9]. Shanghai Copper - The approaching deadline of US tariff policies and the expected unchanged Fed interest rate are negative for copper prices. Fundamentally, supply is loose, and demand is weak. Inventory is at a low level. Technically, there is a possibility of a short - term trend reversal. Overall, copper prices will oscillate weakly, but the downward space may be limited due to low inventory [10]. Cotton - On Tuesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,870 yuan/ton. On July 30, the lowest basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 70 lots compared with the previous day [11]. Iron Ore - On July 29, the main contract of iron ore 2509 oscillated and closed up 0.63% at 798 yuan. The global iron ore shipment increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly. Iron ore demand remained resilient, and the short - term price may oscillate at a high level [11]. Asphalt - On July 29, the main contract of asphalt 2509 oscillated and closed up 0.78% at 3619 yuan. The asphalt production plan of local refineries in August decreased compared with July, and the demand recovery was slower than expected due to rainfall. The short - term price will fluctuate [11]. Logs - On July 29, the log futures contract 2509 opened at 828, with the lowest at 823.5, the highest at 838.5, and closed at 830, with a decrease of 1049 lots in positions. The spot market price in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradiction, and the spot trading is weak [11][12]. Steel - On July 29, the rb2510 contract closed at 3347 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3503 yuan/ton. The steel market strengthened, possibly related to rumors of anti - involution and real estate meetings. The spot market quotation and trading strengthened, and the market's resistance to price drops increased, but market participation is difficult due to macro news [12]. Alumina - On July 29, the ao2509 contract closed at 3307 yuan/ton. The market sentiment driven by policies conflicts with the fundamentals. The demand for alumina from the electrolytic aluminum industry is weak. In the short - term, the market sentiment may reverse, and the operation risk increases. In the medium - term, the supply - demand structure is loose, and the price cannot deviate from the fundamentals for a long time [12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 29, the al2509 contract closed at 20605 yuan/ton. With the approaching of the tariff suspension expiration date on August 1, the Fed's end - of - month interest - rate meeting, and important domestic economic meetings, the impact of macro events on the market should be noted. Fundamentally, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the spot trading is average. The accumulation of social inventory is within the seasonal range, and the low inventory level supports the price [13].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: July 30, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. 3. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market continues to face challenges due to high inventory and weak demand, with the potential for further price declines. The glass market is also under pressure from supply - related inventory issues and weak downstream demand, and the contracts are expected to run weakly [8][9] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions 4.1.1 Soda Ash Market - On July 29, the main soda ash futures SA509 contract continued to decline, closing at 1318 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan/ton (3.58%), with a daily reduction of 108,312 lots. The domestic soda ash industry is facing a combination of high inventory (188.42 tons in factory warehouses) and weak demand (photovoltaic glass daily melting volume dropped to 8.9 tons), intensifying the supply - demand contradiction. The release of the draft for soliciting opinions on the "Technical Guidelines for Feasible Air Pollution Prevention and Control in the Glass Industry" by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment led to a decline in the soda ash market. The fundamentals of soda ash have not changed significantly, and the price may continue to fall [7][8] 4.1.2 Glass Market - In terms of supply, the planned production cuts of photovoltaic glass enterprises have led to a decrease in the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass and a decline in the supply of float glass, increasing inventory pressure. The high inventory in the middle reaches of the industry is the main resistance to price increases, and the slow capacity reduction process may lead to further inventory accumulation. Downstream, the domestic real - estate completion stage has not improved substantially. The release of the draft for soliciting opinions on the "Technical Guidelines for Feasible Air Pollution Prevention and Control in the Glass Industry" has dashed the expectation of capacity contraction, causing a sharp decline in glass contracts. The "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided, and the contract is expected to run weakly [9] 4.2 Data Overview - The report provides charts on the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production, with data sources including Wind and iFind [11][15][17]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights significant increases in futures contracts for various commodities, including soda ash, glass, and coking coal, indicating a bullish trend in these markets [1] Group 2 - Soda ash futures main contract rose over 3% [1] - Glass futures main contract increased by more than 4% [1] - Coking coal futures main contract surged over 5% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance of various futures markets, including soybean, protein meal, oil, live pigs, eggs, and corn, with a focus on upcoming negotiations between China and the U.S. regarding soybean purchases [1] - CBOT soybean prices experienced a slight increase due to decent export data and support from surrounding markets, while domestic protein meal prices saw a decline, with near-term rapeseed meal down approximately 3% and soybean meal down over 2% [1] - The Malaysian palm oil market has seen a three-day consecutive rise, driven by the increase in other oil prices and international oil prices, with production expected to reach 19.5 million tons by 2025 [1] Group 2 - The live pig futures market showed a decline of 1.54%, closing at 14,365 yuan/ton, attributed to weak terminal consumption and excess production capacity [1] - The egg futures market experienced slight fluctuations, closing down 0.03% at 3,636 yuan/500 kg, with most spot prices rising and a stable supply expected as the market enters a peak season [1] - Corn futures saw adjustments with a reduction in positions, while the spot market showed a rebound in Northeast corn prices, with overall stability in North China and slight rebounds in sales area prices [1]

Group 1: Market Overview and Price Review - The m2509 contract of soybean meal futures on July 23, 2025, fluctuated in the intraday range, starting at 3,080 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 3,121 yuan/ton, then dropping to 3,077 yuan/ton, and finally closing at 3,095 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton or 0.62%. The market saw a reduction in positions and volume, with net capital outflows and cooled sentiment. The daily K-line closed in the positive [2]. - Futures market data shows different contract performance in terms of opening, high, low, closing prices, trading volume, open interest, and trading value [5]. - On July 23, 2025, the spot price increases of soybean meal in some domestic regions widened. For example, the price in Zhangjiagang rose by 10 yuan/ton to 2,910 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin by 40 yuan/ton to 2,990 yuan/ton [6][7]. Group 2: Influencing Factors Analysis - Brazilian Anec reported that Brazil's soybean exports in July were 12.11 million tons (pre - estimated at 12.19 million tons), and its soybean meal exports were 2.4 million tons (pre - estimated at 2.25 million tons). The import cost of soybeans decreased, with US soybeans down 16 yuan/ton, Brazilian soybeans down 13 yuan/ton, and Argentine soybeans down 1 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [7][8]. - The base - difference data and registered warehouse receipt data are presented, with the total number of soybean meal warehouse receipts increasing by 170 to 41,446 [8][10]. Group 3: Conclusion and Outlook - The price of the m2509 contract for soybean meal futures continued to rise, but failed to hold above the key integer level at the close. It may show a moderately strong and volatile pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of US soybean - growing area weather on the soybean meal market, and the ample domestic spot supply may put downward pressure on prices [12].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On July 16, A-share major indices fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.03% to 3503.78, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.22% to 10720.81, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.22% to 2230.19. The trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1442 billion yuan, a decrease of 170 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index adjusted, closing at 4007.20, down 11.86 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 16, the coke weighted index fluctuated, closing at 1502.6, down 21.9. The coking coal weighted index also fluctuated, closing at 912.0 yuan, down 14.4. For coke, due to the rising price of coking coal, the number of loss - making coke enterprises increased, and the supply continued to shrink. A price increase was about to be implemented, and short - term coking profits were expected to recover. But with the strong rise of coking coal prices, coke enterprises still faced loss pressure and might raise prices again. The demand from downstream steel mills was supported, and the inventory structure improved. For coking coal, domestic supply increased as mines resumed production, the Mongolian port was about to resume customs clearance, and the arrival of Australian coal increased this week. The import profit of overseas coal was restored, and subsequent shipments might increase [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the rebound of US sugar and weak spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated narrowly and closed slightly higher on Wednesday. At night, it continued to fluctuate narrowly. In India, the water level of 161 major reservoirs reached nearly 52% of the total capacity, higher than last year and the past ten - year average. The southwest monsoon was active, and the sown area of monsoon crops increased by 11% compared with last year [2]. Rubber - Thailand's meteorological department warned of heavy rain from July 19 - 21, which might slow down rubber tapping and reduce supply, supporting the futures price. However, weak demand prospects dampened market sentiment. Trump announced a 30% tariff on products from Mexico and the EU starting from August 1, 2025. Affected by these factors, Shanghai rubber fluctuated narrowly and closed slightly higher on Wednesday and continued to rise slightly at night. In June, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 599,000 tons, a 27.2% increase from 2024. In the first half of the year, the total imports were 4.075 million tons, a 24.1% increase from last year [3]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on July 16, CBOT soybean futures prices rose due to hopes of increased US export demand. The good growth of US soybeans reduced the risk of production cuts. Brazil's soybean exports in July were expected to be 12.19 million tons. Domestically, on July 16, the main soybean meal contract M2509 closed at 2977 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. The arrival of imported soybeans and the oil mill operating rate remained high, but feed enterprises' purchases were limited, and the supply pressure at the spot end increased. There was a large order gap for imported soybeans after September, which supported the far - month contract [5]. Live Pigs - On July 15, live pigs trended weakly, with the main contract LH2509 closing at 14010 yuan/ton, down 1.68%. High - temperature weather increased the risk of pig diseases, and farmers were more willing to sell. The terminal market was in the off - season, and demand was weak. The inventory and performance of sows were recovering, and there was still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [5]. Palm Oil - On July 16, palm oil maintained a high - level volatile trend, with increased amplitude. It closed at 8722, up 0.16%. From July 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield increased by 17.95%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.17%, and production increased by 17.06% [6]. Shanghai Copper - The better - than - expected US CPI data led to the rebound of the US dollar index, which restricted the rebound of non - ferrous metals. However, the inventory accumulation in non - US regions was limited, and the narrowing of the refined - scrap price difference in China weakened the downward momentum of Shanghai copper. It was expected to fluctuate between 77500 - 78500 yuan/ton. If it could hold the support at around 78000 yuan, it might continue to be slightly stronger; otherwise, it might test the 77500 - yuan support [6]. Logs - On Wednesday, the 2509 log contract opened at 788, with a low of 787, a high of 797, and closed at 797, with an increase of 2549 lots in positions. Attention was paid to the support at 785 - 790 and the resistance at 800. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. From January - June, China's log and sawn timber imports decreased by 12% year - on - year. Port shipments decreased, and spot trading was weak [6][7]. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14165 yuan/ton. On July 17, the minimum basis price at Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 73 lots compared with the previous day [7]. Steel - On July 16, rb2510 closed at 3106 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3253 yuan/ton. High - temperature weather affected downstream construction, weakening steel demand and increasing supply - demand pressure. However, the cost supported steel prices. In the short term, steel prices were expected to adjust narrowly [7][8]. Alumina - On July 16, ao2509 closed at 3111 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina spot price was stable, the trading activity was average, holders were reluctant to sell, and downstream enterprises made rigid purchases. The trading volume was limited [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 16, al2508 closed at 20435 yuan/ton. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated. With the macro - tariff concerns and the strengthening of the US dollar index, the supply side changed little, demand weakened, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased over the weekend, so it was under pressure at high levels [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A - share market on July 15, 2025 showed mixed trends among the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.56%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.73%. The trading volume in the two markets reached 1612.1 billion yuan, an increase of 153.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The short - term supply - demand relationship of coking coal and coke is good. Although the iron water is falling, the demand support remains as the total amount is still high, and the inventories of coking plants and mines are significantly decreasing [5]. - For Zheng sugar, influenced by factors such as the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zheng sugar 2509 contract oscillated downward on July 15 [5]. - The domestic soybean meal market has increasing supply pressure at the spot end, but there is support for the far - month contract due to the large order gap of imported soybeans after September [8]. - The terminal market for live pigs is in the off - season, with insufficient downstream demand. The medium - and long - term supply pressure still exists, and the futures market lacks upward momentum [8]. - Palm oil maintained a high - level oscillating trend on July 15, reaching a recent high and then quickly falling back [9]. - The price of Shanghai copper may continue to oscillate. It may fluctuate in the range of 77800 - 78500 yuan/ton. Standing above 78000 yuan/ton may lead to further upward exploration, while falling below 77800 yuan/ton may trigger a short - term correction [9]. - The domestic construction steel market is in the off - season, and the short - term supply - demand weak pattern is difficult to change, with prices likely to continue to oscillate weakly [11]. - The price of alumina is supported to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the medium - term supply is loose, and the upward space is limited [12]. - The spot market for Shanghai aluminum has a light trading volume, and the overall trading momentum is insufficient [12]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On July 15, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3505 points, down 0.42%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10744.56 points, up 0.56%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2235.05 points, up 1.73%. The trading volume in the two markets reached 1612.1 billion yuan, an increase of 153.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 4019.06, up 1.4 [1][2]. Coking Coal and Coke - On July 15, the coking coal weighted index closed at 927.9 yuan, up 2.4, and the coke weighted index closed at 1522.3, down 10.1. The fundamentals are strong, with significant inventory reduction. The supply of coking coal and coke is increasing, while the demand is weakening as the iron water falls. The inventories of coking plants and mines are actively decreasing by 7.22% and 8.83% respectively [3][4][5]. Zheng Sugar - Affected by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zheng sugar 2509 contract oscillated downward on July 15. In the 2024/2025 sugar - cane crushing season, the sugar - cane planting area in Yunnan increased by 6.8% year - on - year, the first stop of the decline in 10 years [5]. Rubber - Shanghai rubber rose first and then fell on July 15, closing slightly higher. It was affected by rainfall in the Thai production area in the morning and then fell due to the expectation of weak future consumption. At night, it oscillated slightly lower due to short - selling pressure. Vietnam's rubber exports in June increased by 47.8% month - on - month, and from January to June, the exports decreased by 4.6% year - on - year. Indonesia's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first five months increased by 14% year - on - year [5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on July 15, the CBOT soybean futures price closed slightly lower. The weather conditions in the US Midwest are favorable, and the US soybean good - quality rate is higher than expected. Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 12.19 million tons. Domestically, on July 15, the main soybean meal contract M2509 closed at 2978 yuan/ton, down 0.47%. The supply pressure at the spot end is increasing, but there is support for the far - month contract [6][8]. Live Pigs - On July 15, the main live - pig contract LH2509 closed at 14250 yuan/ton, down 0.25%. The terminal market is in the off - season, and the medium - and long - term supply pressure still exists, with the futures market lacking upward momentum [8]. Palm Oil - On July 15, palm oil maintained a high - level oscillating trend, reaching a recent high and then quickly falling back. The closing price was 8708 yuan, down 0.46% from the previous trading day [9]. Shanghai Copper - The price of Shanghai copper is under pressure. It may continue to oscillate in the range of 77800 - 78500 yuan/ton. Standing above 78000 yuan/ton may lead to further upward exploration, while falling below 77800 yuan/ton may trigger a short - term correction [9]. Cotton - On the night of July 15, the main Zheng cotton contract closed at 13945 yuan/ton. The base - price quotation of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was at least 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 21 lots compared with the previous day [10]. Logs - On July 15, the 2509 log contract opened at 786.5, with the lowest at 785.5, the highest at 793.5, and closed at 790, with a reduction of 823 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. From January to June, China's imports of logs and sawn timber decreased by 12% year - on - year [10]. Steel - On July 15, the rb2510 steel contract closed at 3114 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 closed at 3259 yuan/ton. The actual spot transaction price followed the decline, and the short - term supply - demand weak pattern is difficult to change, with prices likely to continue to oscillate weakly [11]. Alumina - On July 15, the ao2509 alumina contract closed at 3165 yuan/ton. The price is supported to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the medium - term supply is loose, and the upward space is limited [12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 15, the al2508 Shanghai aluminum contract closed at 20430 yuan/ton. The spot market has a light trading volume, and the overall trading momentum is insufficient [12].