经济刺激：通过施压降息对冲关税政策的负面影响。美国3月核心PCE物价指数同比升至2.9%，但一季度GDP增速放缓至1.8%，滞胀风险加 剧。特朗普试图将经济困境归咎于鲍威尔的"政策滞后"。政治博弈：为2026年连任铺路。若美联储在大选前降息，可能提振市场信心，但若鲍 威尔拒绝妥协，特朗普需通过"换人"重塑政策路径。 鲍威尔多次强调美联储的独立性。4月16日，他在公开讲话中明确表示："美联储的决策基于经济数据，而非政治压力。"根据美国法律，总统 无权随意解雇美联储主席，除非能证明其"渎职或不当行为"。历史判例显示，政策分歧无法构成解职理由。鲍威尔已表态，若遭遇法律挑战， 将通过司法程序抗争到底。 但特朗普正试图突破这一传统。他在4月21日白宫会议上宣称："如果我想让他离职，他很快就得走。"其团队甚至计划推动最高法院重新解释 《联邦储备法》，削弱央行独立性。 2025年4月22日，国际金融市场因特朗普政府与美联储的激烈博弈陷入剧烈震荡。美国总统特朗普在社交媒体连续炮轰美联储主席鲍威尔，称 其为"最大输家"和"Mr.Too Late"，并威胁"立即让他走人"。这一言论直接引发美股"黑色星期一"——道指暴跌2.48% ...

作 者丨易妍君，彭卓 编 辑丨张星，梁明，江佩佩 4月2 2日市场震荡分化，三大指数涨跌不一， 沪指重回3 3 0 0点上方 。截至早盘收盘，沪指涨0 . 3 1%，深成指跌0 . 4 1%，创业板指跌0 . 9 8%。盘 面上热点较为杂乱，个股跌多涨少， 全市场超3 1 0 0只个股下跌 。 | | | 3 0 元 / 克 关 口，续 创 历 史 新 高 。 高盛近期更新了预测，预计到2 0 2 5年年底，现货黄金价格将达到3 7 0 0美元/盎司，而到2 0 2 6年年中将攀升至4 0 0 0美元/盎司。 | | | FRENCE OF | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 年初至今 | | SHFE更全 | 833.48 | 35.02 | 4.39% | 34.26% | | SGE#31+D | 831.02 | 31.42 | 3.93% | 35.16% | | SGE黄金9999 | 831.80 | 27.69 | 3.44% | 35.30% | | 上海金 | 821.75 | 17.91 | 2.2 ...

Group 1 - The core event in the international gold market is the spot gold price surpassing $3,400 per ounce for the first time, reaching a high of $3,407.73, with a daily increase of 2.25% [1] - The rise in gold prices is driven by four main factors: the dollar credit crisis, escalating trade tensions, central bank gold accumulation, and technical market movements [2][3][4][5] Group 2 - The dollar credit crisis is highlighted by the dollar index dropping to a three-year low of 98.00, raising concerns about the dollar's status as a reserve currency, which in turn boosts gold's appeal as an alternative asset [2] - The escalation of the trade war, with tariffs on China increasing to 245%, has led to fears of supply chain disruptions, prompting a surge in safe-haven investments in gold, with a cumulative price increase of over $700 since 2025 and a year-to-date increase of 26.78% [3] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with China's reserves reaching 73.7 million ounces and a 3% year-on-year increase in global central bank gold purchases, totaling 1,238 tons, marking the highest level since 2016 [4] - Technical factors include a breakout above the $3,200 resistance level, with speculative long positions increasing by 42,000 contracts in a single day and over $5 billion flowing into global gold ETFs in the first quarter [5] Group 3 - Despite the bullish trend in gold, market sentiment is polarized, with signs of leverage risks emerging as younger investors use credit cards and personal loans to speculate on gold, potentially inflating localized bubbles [7] - Short-term outlook suggests that gold prices may challenge $3,500 due to a weak dollar and geopolitical risks, but overbought signals indicate potential profit-taking risks, with $3,245 as a key support level [9] - Long-term projections indicate that ongoing stagflation risks, U.S. election policy dynamics, and central bank gold purchasing trends will continue to support gold prices, with Goldman Sachs predicting prices could reach $4,000 by 2026, and possibly exceed $4,500 in extreme scenarios [9]

在全球金融市场的瞩目下，现货黄金价格于2025年4月21日达到了前所未有的高度，首次突破3400美元/盎司的大关，创下历史纪录。这一里程碑式的上涨不 仅震撼了全球市场，也引发了投资者对未来金价走势的广泛讨论和深思。 推动金价上涨的因素众多且复杂。首先，关税战升级加剧了全球经济体之间的紧张关系，导致供应链恐慌，这对黄金作为避险资产的需求起到了推波助澜的 作用。其次，美元信用危机也是关键因素之一。美国财政赤字率已突破6.6%，加之美元指数近期跌至98.5，创下了2023年以来的新低，进一步削弱了美元的 吸引力。与此同时，各国央行持续购金，尤其是中国央行在3月末的黄金储备较前一月增加了9万盎司，表明央行对黄金储备的兴趣并未减弱。此外，美联储 货币政策的不确定性也为黄金价格上涨提供了动力。高盛集团认为，随着美元被高估的情况逐渐显现，以及关税政策对通胀带来的上行风险，美联储短期内 降息的可能性下降，但这反而促使更多资金流入黄金市场寻求避风港。 展望未来，多数专家和机构对于黄金价格的中长期走势持乐观态度。东方金诚研报显示，全球贸易环境变化、宏观经济不确定性增加以及地缘局势持续动荡 等因素将继续支撑黄金价格重回上涨态势。瑞 ...

2025年4月21日，美元指数（DXY）延续跌势，盘中最低触及98.164，较前一交易日收盘价重挫1.03%，创下2022年4月以来的三年新低。受此影响，欧元兑 美元汇率飙升至1.1485，英镑兑美元突破1.3350，日元兑美元则因日本央行干预预期走强至141.80。这场汇率风暴的背后，是跨国美企集体启动"超长防御 战"——苹果、特斯拉等企业将汇率对冲周期从常规的3-6个月延长至2-5年，创下近十年罕见纪录。现货黄金价格突破3390美元/盎司，较前一日上涨1.68%， 刷新历史高点，市场对"美元信用危机"的担忧进一步加剧。 一、美元暴跌的多维驱动逻辑 美联储政策转向的"蝴蝶效应" 市场对美联储降息的预期持续升温，联邦基金利率期货显示，2025年累计降息幅度已达90个基点。尽管鲍威尔在4月FOMC会议上强调"数据依赖"，但美国 一季度GDP增速放缓至1.8%、核心PCE物价指数同比升至2.9%，迫使投资者重新定价美元资产。高盛最新报告指出，美元指数可能在年底前下探95关口，创 2018年以来新低。 特朗普关税政策的"冲击波" 供应链的"地缘重组" 通用汽车宣布将墨西哥工厂产能提升50%，以规避美元汇率波动对北美 ...

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have been influenced by escalating trade tensions, leading to initial sell-offs and a drop below $3000, followed by a rapid recovery and new highs above $3300 after a temporary suspension of tariffs by Trump [1] - The U.S. consumer confidence index has declined for four consecutive months, contributing to a 3% drop in the dollar index, the lowest since April 2022, which has shifted investor interest towards gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges due to rising import prices from tariffs, which could lead to persistent inflation, complicating their monetary policy decisions [5] Group 2 - The ongoing trade war and the weakening dollar are providing strong support for gold prices, with expectations for further upward movement as market conditions evolve [5] - Upcoming economic data releases, including consumer confidence and inflation metrics, will be critical for the Federal Reserve's policy direction [6]

美国人竟然熬夜刷中国电商Ap p囤货！ 本期《财经早察》来拆解中国电商Ap p在美国一夜爆火的原因。 出品：财经早察工作室 总统筹：邓红辉 执行统筹：陈晨星 祝乃娟 主播：董静怡 编辑：洪晓文，陆跃玲，曾婷芳 设计：王冰 本期编辑 金珊 苹果、特斯拉难了？美国关税战反噬巨头产业链 6G要来了！下一个万亿赛道？ 美债风波背后是美元信用危机 SFC 21君荐读 谁能想到，一场美国发起的关税大战，反而让中国的2个电商平台在美国一夜爆红。最近，跨 境B2B平台敦煌网和淘宝突然冲上美国Ap p St o r e下载榜前两名，甚至把Ch a tGPT都挤到了身 后。 ...

每经记者 蔡鼎 每经编辑 高涵 上周，全球市场风起云涌，贸易政策俨然成为风暴中心，触发了市场的剧烈波动。权益资产大幅下挫的同时，传统的避险资产美债和美元也不 避险了，接连大跌。 周一（4月14日），美元指数亚洲时段进一步出现下挫；ICE美元指数日内最低一度下探至99.34，延续了上周以来的下跌态势；彭博美元指数也 一度下跌0.4%，逼近去年10月以来的新低。截至14日收盘，美元指数4月已累跌4.31%，今年累跌超8%。周二（15日）亚洲早盘，美元汇率总 体稳定，但仍逼近上周触及的多个关键低点。 年初至4月14日，美元指数、主要货币以及美元计价黄金涨跌情况 图片来源：每经制图 上周五（4月11日），欧元对美元汇率升至2022年2月以来最高水平，美元对瑞士法郎跌至2015年年初以来低位，美元对日元汇率则降至去年9月 以来低位。美元指数当天盘中一度跌至99.00点，是2022年年初以来新低，也是2023年7月以来首次跌破100点。 主要货币对美元多数上涨，瑞郎和日元明显受益于其避险属性。上周，瑞郎涨至2015年以来高点，周内大幅收涨5.3%；日元同样大涨2.3%。 不少分析人士表示，特朗普政府的所谓"对等关税"，正 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of U.S. financial hegemony, highlighting the impact of protectionist policies under President Trump, which have led to a loss of confidence in U.S. assets and a potential shift in the global monetary system [1][2][10]. Group 1: U.S. Financial Hegemony - The U.S. financial hegemony, established over decades, is facing unprecedented challenges due to trade protectionism and geopolitical shifts [6][10]. - The share of the U.S. dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from over 71% in the early 2000s to below 60% by the end of 2023, indicating a decline in global trust in the dollar [6]. - The U.S. has historically relied on its alliances to maintain the dollar's status, but recent unilateral actions have caused dissatisfaction among allies, prompting them to seek alternatives to the dollar [3][4]. Group 2: Impact of Protectionism - Trump's aggressive tariff policies are undermining the established multilateral trade order, leading other countries to explore alternative currencies for trade settlements [7][8]. - The potential implementation of the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" could challenge the stability of U.S. Treasury securities and weaken the Federal Reserve's independence, further jeopardizing the dollar's reserve currency status [8][9]. - Countries like China and members of the EU are actively promoting the use of their currencies in international trade, which could diminish the dollar's dominance [7][9]. Group 3: Dollar's Credit Crisis - The current situation is characterized as a credit crisis for the dollar, with rising gold prices and other currencies appreciating against the dollar, reflecting a loss of confidence [5][6]. - The U.S. federal debt is projected to exceed $35 trillion by the end of 2024, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 125%, raising concerns about the sustainability of the dollar [6]. - The use of the dollar for financial sanctions has made other countries wary of holding dollar-denominated assets, further eroding trust in the currency [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts express concern that the current asset sell-off in U.S. markets may be just the beginning, with potential long-term implications for the dollar's status [7][9]. - If the U.S. fails to address its fiscal deficits and continues its current policies, the risk of a significant decline in the dollar's international standing could increase [9][10]. - The article warns that if the dollar's credit continues to deteriorate, U.S. Treasury securities may become problematic, leading to broader financial instability [9].

美元是全球化的受益者 美元和美国国债都属于美国政府的债务，背后都是靠美国政府的信用做背书，美元能够成为国际货币是基于其他经济体对美国政 府的信任。我们在《全球货币变局》系列专题一中就介绍过货币的本质，美元纸币的本质就是一张纸，其它经济体之所以接受美 国人拿着一张纸来买自己的商品，其实是基于对美国政府的信任，相信美国政府可以保证美元纸币的购买能力。在这个过程中， 美国人拿着一张纸换走了别的经济体的劳动成果，美元纸币就相当于美国政府发行的债券。所以从这个角度来看，美元和美国国 债都是属于美国政府的债务，而债务是建立在信任或信用的基础上的。在过去几十年，美元之所以能成为国际货币，是基于其他 经济体对美国政府的信任，尤其是相信美国政府能够保证美国经济长期稳定的能力，因为如果经济不稳定，美国政府也会超发美 元来稳经济，美元汇率就会贬值。 在各国之间信任度偏低的时代，大家很难接受别的国家印刷的纸币来购买自己的商品。例如在二战之前的人类历史上，各国之间 没有那么强的信任的情况下，国际贸易的支付结算、官方储备配置更多依赖的是贵金属。虽然在美元之前也有英镑、荷兰盾、西 班牙的银元，但这些所谓的国际货币，其实国际化程度并没有那么 ...