价格是市场经济中很重要的信号，企业看到价格上升才会生产或扩大生产。那么为什么有企业愿意"以价换量"，降价也要生产呢？微观经济学中有个和宏 观领域相似的场景：面对产品售价持续走低，企业非但不缩减生产，反而选择"逆周期扩产"。这种看似矛盾的行为背后，暗含精密的成本核算逻辑。一些 很"卷"的企业甚至会一边降价，一边扩大生产。此时企业的经营目标已不是"利润最大化"，而是"亏损最小化"。经济运行中，很多工业和制造业部门的企 业都有"以价换量"的共同特征，即通过价格调整策略换取市场份额。这种行为虽能维系企业生存，但持续的价格下行可能会削弱市场信心。 回望日本经济史，1990年房地产市场的剧烈调整之后，实际GDP表现稳定但GDP平减指数持续下行，这种经济指标的"剪刀差"将决策者推向两难境地：当 实际GDP达标与价格持续低迷同时存在，政策该何去何从？面对这种特殊的经济形态，可能会有两种解决办法。一种观点是维持现有政策力度，守住实际 GDP就是守住经济基本盘；另一种观点是必须重视名义GDP收缩的现实，主张采取更积极的刺激政策。 当年日本在房地产调整后的前十年，日本央行尚未建立明确的价格调控机制。只要实际GDP保持正增长，便视为 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the impact of the Trump administration's tariff increases on the Chinese economy and the subsequent policy responses from the Chinese government. The focus is on the economic challenges faced by China, including the effects of tariffs, the state of the real estate market, and the overall economic recovery trajectory. Key Points and Arguments Economic Impact of Tariffs - The new round of tariffs implemented on April 1, 2025, exceeded market expectations, prompting the Chinese government to consider additional fiscal measures such as special bonds and stimulus policies for consumption, infrastructure investment, and real estate [1][2][21] - China's GDP growth for Q1 2025 was reported at 5.4%, with a rebound in domestic demand and a 6.9% increase in exports, although there are concerns about potential downward pressure on exports in Q2 [1][11] - The fiscal budget deficit rate has been increased to prepare for declining external demand, with broader government financing also rising by 1.5 percentage points [1][12] Macroeconomic Policy Responses - The Chinese government is expected to adopt a cautious approach to macroeconomic policy, implementing measures gradually rather than launching a comprehensive stimulus package due to uncertainties regarding the impact of tariffs on trade and the economy [2][4][21] - Monetary policy may become more flexible, with potential interest rate cuts depending on actual economic data, particularly if export performance declines significantly [1][13][14] Long-term Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is currently in a phase of "restorative growth," which is characterized by slower recovery rather than a rapid rebound. This is attributed to the damage to balance sheets across households, businesses, and local governments due to the pandemic and real estate market adjustments [3][5][8][22] - The expectation is that the economic recovery will take time, and there should be no over-optimism regarding a quick return to traditional growth rates [5][22][23] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market in Shaanxi province is highlighted as experiencing a delayed adjustment, with prices peaking in June 2024 before beginning to decline. This indicates that the impact of real estate market corrections is still unfolding in central and western regions of China [6] U.S.-China Economic Competition - The intensifying economic competition between the U.S. and China, particularly since Trump's first term, has created significant uncertainty for China's export-oriented sectors, complicating investment decisions [7][8] Gold Market Insights - Recent increases in gold prices are attributed to a weaker dollar and adjustments in market confidence towards the dollar. However, potential short-term risks for gold prices include geopolitical risk premium adjustments and profit-taking [15][19][20] Other Important Considerations - The records emphasize the limited effectiveness of macroeconomic policies in the short term, suggesting that while policies can stabilize the economy, they are unlikely to lead to a traditional recovery [10][23] - The records also note that the U.S. Federal Reserve's actions are influenced by various factors, including retail sales data and unemployment trends, which may affect global economic conditions and, consequently, China's economic outlook [16][17]

央广网北京4月23日消息（记者 樊瑞）21日下午，中国金融四十人论坛（下称CF40）发布2025年第一季度宏观政策报告。CF40资深研究员、中国社科院世 界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌表示，在扩大消费的政策选择与排序中，最优先和最见成效的是逆周期政策，可带动全社会收入和消费在短期内显著增加。 降低政策利率和扩大公共投资是逆周期政策的重点内容。 对于降准降息将在何时落地，张斌在接受央广财经记者提问时表示，"央行强调适时降准降息，具体要看经济数据还有中央统一部署。我觉得不会太远。" 推进促消费一揽子方案循序落实 张斌指出，在当下的国内外环境下，提振消费的重要性得到凸显。张斌介绍，过去二十年中国居民消费率经历"下降—上升—再下降"的三阶段波动，主要由 消费倾向变化与初次分配收入占比变化驱动。消费率变化背后的主导因素是工业化潮起带来2000-2010年的消费率下降，潮落带来2010年以后的消费率上 升，疫情带来短暂的消费率再次下降但并不改变消费率上升趋势。 CF40资深研究员、中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌 提振消费是扩大内需、做大做强国内大循环的重中之重。3月16日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消 ...

Group 1 - Jianxin Fund plans to invest at least 180 million yuan in its equity public products, having already invested 173 million yuan from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025 [1] - Jianxin Fund anticipates that external pressures will enhance the domestic policy logic of "taking the initiative," with expectations for a release of counter-cyclical policies to mitigate the impact of US tariffs [1] Group 2 - Multiple Hong Kong Stock Connect ETFs experienced significant trading activity during the market closure, with some ETFs seeing turnover rates exceeding 900% [2] - The Hang Seng Stock Connect ETF recorded a trading volume of 374 million yuan on April 18, a 76-fold increase from the previous trading day [2] - Due to the surge in ETF prices, premium rates have also increased, prompting several fund companies to issue risk warning announcements [2] Group 3 - Several QDII funds have significantly reduced their holdings in US stocks while increasing their positions in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with one fund's US stock allocation dropping from 52.38% to 24.22% [3] - The same fund increased its Hong Kong stock allocation from 20.48% to 54.94% [3] Group 4 - The offline subscription for Huatai Suzhou Hengtai Rental Housing REIT reached a record high, with a total subscription amount 222.64 times the initial offering [4] - The previous record was held by the Hui Tian Fu Shanghai Real Estate Rental Housing REIT, which had a subscription rate of 180.74 times [4] Group 5 - E Fund's consumer sector fund increased its allocation to liquor stocks, viewing it as a high-yield bond with domestic demand upside [5] - The fund's top ten holdings include Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, with adjustments made in the automotive sector [5][6] Group 6 - Fund manager Guo Lan reduced holdings in Xinlitai, with the number of shares held decreasing from 16.23 million to 14.07 million [7] - Xinlitai is an innovative pharmaceutical company listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [7] Group 7 - Fund manager Fu Pengbo slightly increased holdings in Furuisi, with shares rising from 672.96 million to 684.96 million [8] - Furuisi focuses on liver disease treatment and is listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [8] Group 8 - On April 22, the market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.25% while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index fell by 0.36% and 0.82%, respectively [9] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 48.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day [9] Group 9 - Hong Kong innovative drug-related ETFs saw strong performance, with some rising by as much as 5.77% [10] - Analysts suggest that the pharmaceutical sector may attract market funds due to previous declines and cheap valuations, with significant investment opportunities expected in innovative and generic drugs [10]

文 /高歌、李悦 今年一季度财政发展前置，趋势呈现温和回升态势，直接改善了非政府部门现金流，但CPI、PPI、 GDP平减指数仍处低位，低通胀情况并未改变，国内需求不足局面仍未完全摆脱。 一季度，国内资本市场的表现在类平准基金稳定下得以回稳，但真正的考验在于外部环境的变化对实 体部门的影响。外部冲击下，二季度挑战与隐忧仍存。 4月21日，在CF40 宏观政策季度报告发布会上，多位专家聚焦当前宏观经济形势与扩大消费的政策 选择。面对美"对等关税"冲击以及二季度财政发债退坡压力，短中长期如何有效扩大内需，扩大消 费的政策选择与排序等议题分享最新观点。 根据中国金融四十人研究院的估算，考虑到出口下降及其乘数效应，美国关税政策对中国经济的总体 影响约为2万亿元，占GDP比重约1.5个百分点。 "这种冲击在短期内会比测算结果更大，因为长期来看企业会想各种办法绕过这个问题。总的来说， 关税冲击是二季度经济面临的最大挑战。"4月21日，在CF40宏观政策季度报告发布会上，CF40资 深研究员、中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌表示。 他进一步提示， 关税的冲击本质上是对需求的冲击 ， 我们要加大扩大内需力度，增加国内 ...

记者 王珍 4月21日，在中国金融40人论坛（CF40）举办的活动上，与会专家认为，面对美国极端关税带来的外部冲击，推出万亿级消费刺激政策是当前最 合理且可行的应对方案。长期看，还要通过完善社会保障体系、提高服务业占比等措施释放内需潜力，推动经济高质量发展。 中国金融四十人研究院执行院长郭凯表示，扩大国内消费是当前最优政策选择，既能在内需层面稳定经济，又能在外交层面减少贸易摩擦的连锁 反应。相比之下，汇率调整和投资扩张的空间有限，且可能带来额外风险。 他说，根据其测算，整个关税对我国出口的影响大约是1.2万亿元，考虑到乘数效应对GDP的影响是2万亿元，这个冲击很显著，但也不是不能应 对。"如果是2万亿的冲击，针对消费的新增政策得是1万亿以上的量级。" 郭凯强调，这样做不仅有利于提振内需，也有利于对外谈判。"你可以说，我们很努力支持国内需求、国内消费，我们没有任何意图把贸易摩擦产 生的成本向别的国家转移，同时辅以开放政策，对方在这个过程中可以受益……在这个意义上说，扩国内消费既是内政也是外交，使得我们能够 团结更多的朋友，来把贸易摩擦应对好。" CF40资深研究员、中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌和 ...

广发宏观周度述评（第11期） 广发宏观周度述评（第1-10期，复盘必读） 内容 第一， 如何理解后续政策节奏？ 4月初，美国对全球所谓"对等关税"落地，此后对华关税又持续升温。外需承压的背景下，"内需对冲外需"成为必然。人民日报 [1]《集中精力办好自己的事》亦明确指出"未来根据形势需要，降准、降息等货币政策工具已留有充分调整余地，随时可以出台；财政政策已明确要加大支出强 度、加快支出进度，财政赤字、专项债、特别国债等视情仍有进一步扩张空间；将以超常规力度提振国内消费"。金融市场对上述逆周期政策的预期亦显著升温。 应如何理解本轮政策节奏和后续政策落地时机？对此我们有几点理解： 一是外部贸易环境仍在继续变化的过程中。从特朗普政府相关政策表述来看，本轮逆全球化关税可能包括基础关税、对等关税、报复性关税、特定行业关税，后一 部分尚未落地。再加上美国关税政策反复无常，整体不确定性较大；非美区域的贸易条件亦需要继续观察。 二是在面对内外部环境变化时，往往会有一个"影响评估-政策定调-政策出台"的经验过程。比如2018年二季度美国对华关税落地，9月起制造业PMI放缓明显，四 季度货币政策取消"总闸门"的提法。再比如202 ...

智通财经4月9日电，在全球资本市场震荡加剧的当下，公私募机构坚定看好中国资产。4月8日晚，博时 基金、鹏扬基金等公募基金公司公告称，基于对中国资本市场长期健康稳定发展的信心，将于近日运用 固有资金投资各自旗下权益类基金。多家知名私募机构也以行动表达对于后市的看好。4月8日上午，进 化论资产CEO、首席投资官王一平在社交平台发文称自己组合已满仓。在公私募机构人士看来，尽管全 球基本面风险增加，但国内逆周期政策已有储备，后续投资更重要的逻辑在于"以内为主"，科技、医 药、消费等板块值得重点关注。 看准低吸机会 公私募果断出手自购加仓 ...

Group 1 - The total profit of FOF funds exceeded 5.11 billion yuan in the previous year, with mixed FOFs showing the best overall profit of 2.56 billion yuan [2][5] - The top ten fund managers' FOF funds all reported positive total profits, with Xingzheng Global Fund leading at 1.00 billion yuan [2][3] - The management fees for the top ten fund managers' FOF funds decreased to 428 million yuan, down from 598 million yuan in the same period last year [2][5] Group 2 - The structure of FOF fund holders has changed, with individual investors holding 117.43 billion units, a decrease of 26.87 billion units from last year [5] - Despite the decline in individual holdings, the number of FOF funds launched in 2024 has increased to 17, compared to 10 in the same period last year [5] - The average weekly return of mixed FOFs was limited to a decline of only 0.06% amidst a broader market adjustment [6] Group 3 - The A-share market continued its adjustment trend, with the average daily trading volume dropping to 1.1368 trillion yuan [6] - The performance of various sectors showed mixed results, with the electricity and public utilities, banking, and transportation sectors performing well, while the non-ferrous metals sector declined by 2.97% [7] - The top-performing FOF product last week was Qianhai Kaiyuan Yuze, with a weekly return of 0.91% [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the pressure on CPI due to insufficient consumer demand, predicting a low CPI in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant rebound expected in Q4 2025 [1][6]. Group 1: CPI Core Parameters - Parameter 1: Food - Pork and beef are expected to face downward price pressure in 2025, with pork prices projected to drop from 17 CNY/kg in 2024 to around 15 CNY/kg, shifting from a positive to a negative contribution to CPI [2]. - Parameter 2: Oil - Oil prices are under downward pressure due to OPEC+ production increases and a weakening U.S. economy, with Brent crude oil prices expected to fall to the range of 70-75 USD/barrel in 2025, negatively impacting CPI [3]. - Parameter 3: Core Goods - The "old-for-new" policy is not expected to suppress core goods CPI, which is anticipated to rise moderately supported by further consumption promotion policies [4]. - Parameter 4: Core Services - The stabilization of rental prices is crucial, as rental prices have negatively impacted CPI since 2022, with a projected drag of approximately 0.03 percentage points in 2024 [5]. Group 2: CPI Forecasts - In a neutral scenario, the estimated CPI year-on-year averages for Q1 to Q4 of 2025 are -0.1%, -0.3%, -0.2%, and 0.8%, respectively, indicating a notable recovery in Q4 [6]. Group 3: Macro Economic Tracking - Recent PMI data shows a recovery compared to the previous month, but remains below the five-year average, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment, while non-manufacturing sectors have also seen a decrease [7].