Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the improvement in financial conditions in May, with social financing increasing by 2.3 trillion yuan, slightly exceeding market expectations, while credit growth remains weak due to demand-side factors [1][7][13]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - In May, social financing increased by 2.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 227.1 billion yuan, slightly above the market average expectation of 2.05 trillion yuan [1][7]. - The total social financing scale for the first five months of 2025 reached 18.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [7]. Credit Analysis - The increase in real credit was 596 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 223.7 billion yuan, indicating a weaker demand side [8]. - The BCI index showed an improvement in the financing environment for enterprises, suggesting that supply conditions may not be weak [8][9]. Corporate Loans - Long-term loans for enterprises increased by 330 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 170 billion yuan, reflecting weak investment in infrastructure and manufacturing [9]. - Short-term loans increased by 230 billion yuan year-on-year, while bill financing decreased by 282.6 billion yuan, indicating a preference for short-term loans due to higher yields [9]. Bond Financing - Corporate bonds increased by 149.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 121.1 billion yuan, likely due to lower deposit rates and increased credit bond financing [10][11]. - Government bonds increased by 1.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 236.7 billion yuan, reflecting accelerated fiscal implementation [10][11]. Foreign Currency Loans - Foreign currency loans increased by 13.5 billion yuan, marking the first positive growth since March 2024, attributed to a weaker dollar and improved exchange rate expectations [11]. M1 Growth - M1 growth was 2.3%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in economic conditions [12]. - However, M1 performance remains weak, with a decrease of 230.7 billion yuan in May compared to previous years, influenced by debt replacement and shifts in deposit preferences [12]. Overall Financial Conditions - The article concludes that while supply-side conditions have improved, demand-side expectations remain uncertain, with ongoing impacts from debt replacement affecting financial data [13].

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for May indicates a reasonable match with the real economy, with significant growth in social financing scale, M2, and RMB loan growth, all surpassing nominal GDP growth, suggesting a stable support for the real economy [1][2]. Financial Data Overview - As of the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 325.78 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [2]. - The narrow money supply (M1) reached 108.91 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [2]. - The total social financing stock was 426.16 trillion yuan, growing by 8.7% year-on-year [2]. - In the first five months, the increment in social financing was 1.863 trillion yuan, which is 383 billion yuan more than the same period last year [2]. Social Financing and Government Bonds - In May, the increment in social financing was 2.29 trillion yuan, which is 224.7 billion yuan more than the previous year, primarily driven by government and corporate bonds [3]. - Government bonds were identified as the main driver for the rapid growth in social financing, with special refinancing bonds and new local special bonds contributing significantly [3]. - The issuance of new special bonds in May reached 443.2 billion yuan, marking a record high for the year [3]. Loan Growth and Structure - The RMB loan balance at the end of May was 266.32 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [6]. - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans was 34.42 trillion yuan, growing by 11.6% year-on-year, while medium to long-term loans in the manufacturing sector reached 14.75 trillion yuan, up by 8.8% [7]. - The recent interest rate cuts have positively influenced loan demand, with many enterprises finding loans more attractive [8]. Market Confidence and Economic Activity - The increase in "liquid money" (M1) growth reflects the effectiveness of recent financial support measures in boosting market confidence and indicating a recovery in investment and consumption activities [4]. - The overall financial volume is expected to maintain stability, supported by resilient economic development and proactive fiscal policies [11]. - The People's Bank of China has implemented a series of financial support measures, including interest rate cuts and structural monetary policy tools, which are gradually taking effect [11].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) is showing positive performance with a recent price of 123.87 yuan and a trading volume indicating strong liquidity [1][2]. Group 1: Performance and Liquidity - As of June 10, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF has increased by 0.05% [1]. - The ETF has a trading turnover of 4.34% with a total transaction value of 786 million yuan [1]. - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF has reached 18.109 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Market Conditions - In the past 20 trading days, there have been net inflows on 12 days, totaling 2.098 billion yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 105 million yuan [2]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including May CPI and PPI, are expected to reflect weak domestic demand and consumer confidence, which may positively influence the bond market [2]. - The central bank's proactive measures, including a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, signal a commitment to maintaining a loose monetary environment [2]. Group 3: Investment Characteristics - The 30-year Treasury ETF is considered a valuable tool for portfolio management, offering low trading thresholds and high trading efficiency [3]. - Individual investors can participate with a minimum transaction unit of 100 shares, approximately 10,000 yuan [3]. - The ETF benefits from ample liquidity provided by multiple market makers, ensuring immediate transaction execution [3].

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic focus in May is expected to shift towards exports, with internal changes remaining relatively small. The anticipated export growth rate is around 3.5%, while imports are expected to decline by approximately 2% [2][3][11]. Export - Overall export growth is projected to marginally decline but remains within an acceptable range, with a forecasted year-on-year growth of 3.5% in dollar terms for May [3][11]. - High-frequency data indicates a decrease in container throughput at monitored ports, with a year-on-year decline of 6.7% as of May 25, compared to 7.3% at the end of April [4][12]. - The number of container ships from China to the U.S. has decreased significantly, with a year-on-year drop of 20.2% in May, reflecting weak direct exports to the U.S. [4][12]. - Imports from ASEAN countries have also shown a marginal decline, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3% in ship arrivals in May, down from 8.3% in April [4][12]. Domestic Demand - Retail sales are expected to grow by around 5.5% in May, with strong performance in the automotive sector but weaker pricing [5][15]. - Fixed asset investment growth is projected to decline to approximately 3.8% for January to May, influenced by insufficient project availability [5][14]. - Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a year-on-year decline of about 0.4%, while Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to decrease by around 3.5% [6][8]. Financial Data - New social financing is expected to reach 1.9 trillion yuan in May, a decrease of 100 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [6][16]. - M2 money supply is projected to grow by approximately 7.6% year-on-year, while new M1 is expected to increase by around 2.4% [6][16]. Real Estate - Real estate sales are anticipated to show a year-on-year decline of about 3.0% in May, with major cities reporting a decrease of 4.1% [15][16]. Summary - The report highlights a cautious outlook for exports and domestic demand, with specific attention to the automotive and real estate sectors. The financial landscape shows signs of slowing growth in social financing and investment, indicating potential challenges ahead for the economy [2][5][11][15][16].

Key Points - The article discusses the recent developments in China-US trade relations, highlighting the joint statement from the Geneva economic talks on May 12, 2025, where both countries agreed to modify tariffs on each other's goods [2] - The US will suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff on Chinese goods for the first 90 days and retain a 10% tariff, while China will similarly adjust its tariffs on US goods [2] - On May 14, the US reduced the tariff on small packages from China, lowering the international mail tax rate from 120% to 54% [2] - The US consumer price index (CPI) for April 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, slightly down from 2.4% in March, marking the lowest level since February 2021 [3] - In April 2025, new RMB loans in China amounted to 280 billion, a decrease of 450 billion year-on-year, while the total social financing scale was 1,158.5 billion, an increase of 1,224.3 billion year-on-year [3] - The broad money supply (M2) in China grew by 8.0% year-on-year, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from the previous month [3] - The bond market faced downward pressure following the "double reduction" policy, with short-term bonds strengthening while long-term bonds showed weakness due to profit-taking [4] - The overall bond market was under pressure after the joint statement from the China-US economic talks, leading to a slight widening of the yield spread [4]

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 5 月 16 日 中银晨会聚焦-20250516 ■重点关注 【宏观经济】4 月金融数据点评*张晓娇 朱启兵。4 月新增社融和新增信贷 偏弱，主要是受美国关税政策冲击；但 4 月数据中仍反映出积极的财政政策 落地速度较快、居民购房需求仍在恢复趋势当中；5 月国内宏观政策加大宽 松力度、海外经贸形势出现较大变化，我们预计将提振二季度经济预期。 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3380.82 | (0.68) | | 深证成指 | 10186.45 | (1.62) | | 沪深 300 | 3907.20 | (0.91) | | 中小 100 | 6321.96 | (1.34) | | 创业板指 | 2043.25 | (1.92) | 行业表现（申万一级） | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美容护理 | 3.68 | 计算机 | (2.97) | | 煤炭 | 0.42 | 通信 | (2.45) ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the A-share market, highlighting the impact of monetary policy changes and economic indicators on market sentiment and investment activity. Group 1: Market Performance - On May 15, the A-share market closed at 3380.82 points, down 0.68%, with over 3800 stocks declining [1] - Despite positive news such as interest rate cuts and a pause in the US-China trade war, the market's upward momentum has been weak, leading to a sense of volatility [1] Group 2: Monetary Data Analysis - As of the end of April, M2 increased by 8% year-on-year, a significant rise of 1 percentage point from the previous month, while M1 grew by 1.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points [1][2] - The M1-M2 spread widened to 6.5 percentage points, up from 5.4 percentage points in March, indicating a potential decrease in economic activity [1][3] Group 3: Economic Implications - The slowdown in M1 growth is attributed to a high base effect from the previous year and a significant reduction in short-term loans, reflecting weakened consumer and business confidence [2][4] - The PMI for manufacturing fell to 49.0%, indicating contraction, with the export new orders index dropping to 44.7%, the lowest level in 2023 [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts expect a continued decline in exports to the US due to high tariffs, leading to sustained external demand weakness and a push for domestic demand policies [5] - The central bank is anticipated to maintain a loose monetary policy, with potential interest rate cuts and increased liquidity measures in the second half of the year [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [25]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that in April 2025, new social financing (社融) amounted to approximately 1.16 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 1.22 trillion yuan year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.7% [3][4]. - The report anticipates that credit growth will remain stable throughout 2025, with an estimated annual credit increment of around 18.1 trillion yuan, leading to a credit growth rate of approximately 7.1% [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government bonds as a primary support for social financing, with government bond issuance in April reaching about 972.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.07 trillion yuan [4][10]. Summary by Sections Credit Market Analysis - In April, new credit was 280 billion yuan, a decrease of 450 billion yuan year-on-year, attributed to the seasonal nature of credit in this period and the impact of debt replacement [4]. - Corporate loans saw a year-on-year decrease of approximately 2.5 trillion yuan, reflecting weak demand in the corporate sector [4][15]. - Retail credit demand remains under pressure, with a net decrease of 521.6 billion yuan in household loans, indicating a lack of sustained momentum in the housing market [4][18]. Monetary Supply - M1 increased by 1.5% year-on-year, while M2 grew by 8.0%, showing a rebound in growth rates [8][4]. - The report notes that the decline in deposits was significant, with a net decrease of 440 billion yuan in April, reflecting a shift in risk preferences among investors [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that bank stocks are attractive in both counter-cyclical and pro-cyclical contexts, with high dividend yields becoming increasingly appealing [4]. - Specific banks recommended for investment include Agricultural Bank of China (A+H), Chongqing Bank, and Suzhou Bank, among others, due to their solid provisioning and growth potential under favorable policies [4].

"4月末M2增速较快上扬，背后是上年同期基数大幅走低，以及当月社融增速加快，拉动存款派生。"东方金诚首 席分析师王青表示，当前M2增速明显高于名义GDP增速，显示金融对实体经济具有较强支持性。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬分析称，后续随着低基数效应的递减，未来M2同比增速会恢复到今年前几个月的正常 增长水平。 另外，狭义货币（M1）余额109.14万亿元，同比增长1.5%，较上月末小幅回落0.1个百分点。 华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 刘佳 北京报道 4月作为传统的信贷"小月"，信贷投放稳定性和可持续性有所增强。 5月14日，在央行公布的金融数据中，4月新增人民币贷款2800亿元，同比少增4500亿元；4月新增社会融资规模为 11585亿元，同比多增12243亿元。 4月末，广义货币（M2）同比增长8.0%；狭义货币（M1）同比增长1.5%；流通中货币（M0）余额13.14万亿元， 同比增长12%。前四个月净投放现金3193亿元。 在多位受访人士看来，受季节性效应、关税冲击以及债务置换等多因素影响下，4月新增信贷有所回落，但政府债 发行等支撑下，社融增速呈稳步走高态势，今年以来金融对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for April indicates a significant rebound in M2 growth and an acceleration in the scale of social financing, reflecting a stable and effective monetary policy that supports the real economy [1][12]. Monetary Supply and Financing - As of the end of April, the broad money supply (M2) reached 325.17 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8%, which is 1.0 percentage points higher than the previous month and 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1][8]. - The total social financing stock was 424 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, which is 0.3 percentage points higher than the previous month and 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1][12]. - In April, the increment of social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, which is 1.22 trillion yuan more than the same month last year [1]. Government Bond Issuance - The acceleration of government bond issuance has significantly contributed to the increase in social financing. From January to April, net financing from government bonds exceeded 5 trillion yuan, which is approximately 3.6 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [3][4]. - In April, the issuance of special long-term government bonds and refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts contributed to a net financing of about 970 billion yuan, which is approximately 1.1 trillion yuan more than the same month last year [3]. Credit Growth and Structure - From January to April, the total increase in RMB loans was 10.06 trillion yuan, roughly the same as the previous year [1]. - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 34.31 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.9%, while medium and long-term loans for the manufacturing sector reached 14.71 trillion yuan, growing by 8.5% year-on-year [1][6]. Impact of Debt Replacement - The replacement of local government debt through special bonds has influenced the credit growth statistics, but it does not diminish the actual support for the real economy. The adjusted loan growth rate remains above 8% [6][7]. - The issuance of special refinancing bonds for debt replacement has been significant, with over 2 trillion yuan issued in the last quarter of the previous year and nearly 1.6 trillion yuan from January to April this year [7]. Economic Outlook - The financial data from the first four months aligns well with the performance of the real economy, indicating that the effects of moderately loose monetary policy will continue to manifest [2][12]. - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in April was approximately 3.2%, which is about 4 basis points lower than the previous month and 50 basis points lower than the same period last year [13].