Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a series of significant monetary policy measures to support economic recovery and enhance financial market confidence, as reported during the 18th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress [1] Monetary Policy Execution - Following the Central Political Bureau's directives on September 26, 2024, the PBOC introduced a comprehensive set of monetary policy measures aimed at maintaining an appropriately accommodative monetary stance starting in 2025 [1] - In May, new monetary policy measures were launched, including further reductions in reserve requirement ratios (RRR) and interest rates, alongside increased structural support for technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [1] - As of the end of September, the year-on-year growth rates for the total social financing scale and broad money supply were 8.7% and 8.4%, respectively [1] - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was reported at 3.14% in September [1] - The execution and transmission of monetary policy have been strengthened, resulting in ample liquidity, reasonable growth in financial aggregates, and historically low social financing costs, which collectively contribute to boosting market confidence and improving social expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the importance of financial work in supporting China's economic stability and high-quality development, highlighting the implementation of various monetary policies and regulatory measures to enhance financial stability and support the real economy [1][2]. Financial Work Progress and Achievements - Since November 2024, the financial system has focused on stabilizing and improving support for the real economy, enhancing financial regulation, and deepening financial reform and opening up, achieving new results [3]. - As of September 2025, the total assets of financial institutions exceeded 520 trillion yuan, with commercial banks' capital adequacy ratio at 15.36% and non-performing loan ratio at 1.52%, indicating strong resilience [4]. Monetary Policy Execution - A series of significant monetary policy measures were implemented, including reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, leading to a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in social financing scale and 8.4% in broad money supply by September [3]. Financial Support for the Real Economy - From November 2024 to September 2025, A-share IPOs raised 91.8 billion yuan, with 86% from private enterprises and 92% from strategic emerging industries, indicating strong financing activity [6]. - Loans for technology, green, inclusive, elderly, and digital economy sectors grew significantly, with year-on-year increases of 11.8%, 22.9%, 11.2%, 58.2%, and 12.9% respectively [6]. Financial Reform and Opening Up - The reform of financial institutions is deepening, with state-owned banks successfully raising 520 billion yuan through targeted placements to bolster capital [7]. - The cross-border payment system for the renminbi has been established, enhancing its international use and positioning it as a major currency for cross-border transactions [7]. Risk Prevention and Mitigation - Measures have been taken to address risks in small and medium-sized financial institutions, with a significant reduction in the number of financing platforms and their debt levels [8]. - The real estate market is being supported through policies that lower down payments and mortgage rates, with new loans amounting to 2.2 trillion yuan facilitated through a "white list" mechanism [8]. Future Work Considerations - The focus will be on implementing a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery, enhancing financial regulation, and providing high-quality financial services to key sectors [10][11]. - Continued efforts will be made to prevent systemic financial risks, particularly in the real estate sector and among small financial institutions, while promoting the stability of capital markets [13].

中国央行行长潘功胜金融工作情况报告：巩固资本市场向好势头，健全稳市机制。下一步落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，为巩固拓展经济回升向好势头营造适宜的货币金融环境。保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。管好用好现有各项结构性货币政策工具。稳慎有序推进人民币国际化，全面提升人民币计价、支付、投融资、储备等国际货币功能。继续加强金融法治建设，统筹推动金融法、中国人民银行法等金融重点领域立法修法。 ...

Group 1 - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair has narrowed down to five candidates, including current governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, former governor Kevin Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and BlackRock's Rick Rieder [1] - Key issues in this selection include interest rate policy and central bank independence, with candidates expressing varying views on the need for policy adjustments in response to labor market conditions and economic growth [1] - The new chair's stance will directly influence the Federal Reserve's future communication and policy operations, impacting market expectations [1] Group 2 - Trump may announce his nominee for the Federal Reserve Chair earlier than usual, which could lead to market adjustments in interest rate and policy expectations [2] - The ongoing public disagreement between Trump and Powell highlights concerns over political interference in the Federal Reserve's operations, emphasizing the need for institutional independence [2] - The new chair's policy orientation will be a focal point for the market, with potential implications for interest rates, the strength of the dollar, and the performance of risk assets [2] Group 3 - The discussion around a leadership change at the Federal Reserve is gaining attention, with candidates like Warsh and Rieder being considered for their respective backgrounds and experiences [3] - The incoming chair will face a complex environment characterized by high inflation, slowing growth, and political pressures, marking a potential turning point in global monetary policy [3]

Group 1 - Global financial markets exhibited volatility, with international gold prices significantly declining and Asian stock markets slowing down after recent gains [1][3] - On October 28, spot gold prices fell by 2.7% to $4002.29 per ounce, reaching a three-week low of $3970.81 during the session; December gold futures dropped by 2.9% to $4019.70 per ounce [1] - Analysts noted that expectations of easing trade tensions reduced demand for safe-haven assets, with High Ridge Futures indicating that the likelihood of a trade agreement diminished gold's appeal [1][3] Group 2 - Despite most experts maintaining a long-term bullish outlook for gold prices, predicting a rise to $5000 per ounce, some institutions like Capital Economics issued warnings of further correction risks, lowering their 2026 year-end forecast to $3500 per ounce [3] - The recent surge in gold prices was attributed more to market psychology than fundamental support, according to Capital Economics [3] - Asian stock markets paused their upward momentum, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) index down by 0.1%, and the Nikkei index slightly declining by 0.2% after a 2.5% rise in the previous session [3] Group 3 - Investors are anticipating a series of earnings reports from major tech companies, which are expected to provide upward momentum for the market [3] - Qualcomm's stock performed well, rising by 11% due to the launch of two new AI processors for data centers [3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy decision is highly anticipated, with market expectations for a 0.25 percentage point rate cut exceeding 97% [3][5] Group 4 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained stable around 3.98% ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting [5] - Other major economies are expected to adopt varying monetary policies, with the Bank of Canada likely to implement easing measures, while Japan and Europe are expected to maintain their current stances [5] - The oil market experienced slight declines, influenced by OPEC+ members considering production increases to support Saudi Arabia's market share, with Brent crude closing at $65.46 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $61.17 per barrel [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Tuesday, the RB2601 contract rose and then pulled back. The central bank will improve the monetary policy framework, strengthen implementation and transmission, and improve long - term capital support policies. The weekly output of rebar increased with a capacity utilization rate of 45.39%, terminal demand increased, and inventory declined. Fed rate - cut expectations and production cuts in major steel - producing areas still support steel prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows a slowdown in the upward trend of DIFF and DEA, and the red column is shrinking. It is recommended to pay attention to the support around 3070, conduct short - term trading, and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,091 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the position was 1,930,357 lots, down 22,644 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 103,837 lots, up 8,267 lots. The RB1 - 5 contract spread was - 63 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. The RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 147,361 tons, down 3,058 tons. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 214 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,320 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,140 yuan/ton, unchanged. The RB main contract basis was 209 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 70 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 796 yuan/wet ton, up 12 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,590 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,980 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 144.2065 million tons, up 1.3895 million tons. The sample coking plant coke inventory was 373,700 tons, down 1,200 tons. The sample steel mill coke inventory was 6.3327 million tons, down 60,000 tons. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace开工率 was 84.73%, down 1.23 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 89.92%, down 0.39 percentage points. The Tangshan billet inventory was 1.2873 million tons, up 4,800 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The sample steel mill rebar output was 2.0707 million tons, up 59,100 tons; the rebar capacity utilization rate was 45.39%, up 1.29 percentage points. The sample steel mill rebar inventory was 1.8463 million tons, down 100 tons; the 35 - city rebar social inventory was 4.3748 million tons, down 189,300 tons. The independent electric arc furnace steel mill开工率 was 67.71%, unchanged. The domestic crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons. The Chinese rebar monthly output was 1.541 million tons, up 66,000 tons. The steel net export volume was 992,000 tons, up 91,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.78, down 0.27. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 0.50%, down 1.00 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 13.90%, down 1.00 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 1.10%, down 0.90 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.4858 billion square meters, down 54.71 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 453.99 million square meters, down 55.98 million square meters. The commercial housing unsold area was 39.937 million square meters, up 2.92 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From January to September, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the country was 5.3732 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. The total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 97.34 billion yuan. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)", stating that in key areas, the total steel production capacity should not be increased, and the transfer of steel production capacity from non - key areas to key areas and between different key areas is prohibited. The capacity replacement ratio for ironmaking and steelmaking in each province (autonomous region, municipality) should not be less than 1.5:1 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 28, 2025, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds were short - strong and long - weak. The yields of 1 - 7Y bonds decreased by about 0.25 - 4.0bp, while the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds increased by about 1.4bp to 1.81% and 2.17% respectively. Treasury bond futures strengthened collectively, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising by 0.08%, 0.15%, 0.25%, and 0.55% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 slightly declined and fluctuated around 1.56% [3]. - Domestically, in September, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size continued to rebound due to the low - base effect, with a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. In the third quarter, China's GDP increased by 4.8% year - on - year, with a steady but slightly slower growth rate compared to the previous value. In September, industrial added value increased significantly year - on - year, social retail growth slowed down, and fixed - asset investment continued to converge and entered the contraction range [3]. - Policy - wise, the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee emphasized that the current economic development faces a complex environment, and the pro - growth policies will continue to exert force. It aims to enhance the endogenous driving force of the economy through expanding domestic demand, promoting consumption, and stabilizing investment, and requires achieving the annual economic and social development goals [3]. - Overseas, the year - on - year increase in the US CPI in September was lower than expected, and the expectation of continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year has increased. In terms of Sino - US trade policy, the new round of trade consultations between China and the US ended, releasing positive signals and alleviating market concerns about the escalation of trade frictions [3]. - Overall, with external demand facing tariff shocks, the repair of domestic demand has become a key support for stabilizing the economy. The market's expectation of loose monetary policy has increased. The weak fundamental pattern may drive the bond market to strengthen in a volatile manner. However, uncertainties such as the subsequent progress of Sino - US trade policies and the new regulations on public fund fees continue to disturb market sentiment. Coupled with the recent rebound in risk appetite, it is expected that treasury bond futures will show a narrow - range oscillation pattern in the short term. It is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices and Volume**: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 108.415, 105.895, 102.466, and 115.960 respectively, with increases of 0.25%, 0.15%, 0.08%, and 0.55%. The trading volumes of T main contract decreased by 874, while those of TF, TS, and TL main contracts increased by 9745, 9448, and 9625 respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Multiple futures spreads showed downward trends, such as the TL2512 - 2603 spread decreased by 0.03 to 0.27, and the T12 - TL12 spread decreased by 0.32 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The positions of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts all increased, with increases of 9953, 4078, 1890, and 6157 respectively. The net short positions of the top 20 in T, TF, TS, and TL also increased by 708, 3538, 1778, and 3218 respectively [2]. 3.2 Bond Market Data - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of several CTD bonds increased, such as 220017.IB (4y) increased by 0.2651 to 106.5618 [2]. - **Active Treasury Bonds**: The yields of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y active treasury bonds decreased by 3.50bp, 1.25bp, 5.50bp, 3.75bp, and 5.00bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rate Data - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 13.08bp to 1.4308%, and the Shibor overnight rate increased by 2.70bp to 1.4690%. The silver - pledged 7 - day rate increased by 3.00bp to 1.5300%, while the Shibor 7 - day rate decreased by 1.20bp to 1.5300% [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of open - market reverse repurchase operations was 4753 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 1595 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - **Diplomatic and Trade**: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, expressing the hope that both sides would work together to prepare for high - level exchanges. The two sides are in close communication about the possible meeting of the two heads of state. The new round of Sino - US trade consultations ended with positive signals [2][3]. - **Financial Forum**: At the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference, central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said that the central bank would resume open - market treasury bond trading operations. Financial regulators also made important statements on policies such as financial services, capital support, and market reform [2][3]. - **Financial Report**: The State Council's report on financial work proposed to highlight the key direction of financial services to the real economy, implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and promote a decline in the comprehensive financing cost of society [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference was held from October 27th to 30th. The US Federal Reserve's interest - rate decision (upper limit) for the period ending October 29th will be announced at 2:00 on October 30th [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The necessity of a reserve requirement ratio cut is increasing due to liquidity pressure on banks' liability side in Q4, but the possibility of an interest rate cut requires further observation of economic data and tariff game impacts [3][4] - If a reserve requirement ratio cut occurs, it may drive down short - term and certificate of deposit rates; if an interest rate cut occurs, the magnitude is crucial, and the bond market may experience a small decline in interest rates, but the downward space is limited [48][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 History of Q4 Reserve Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cuts - In the past 5 years, except for 2021, policy rates were generally cut twice a year but not in Q4. In 2020, cuts were in H1; in 2024, in H2; in 2022, once each in H1 and H2, mostly by 10BP, with 20BP cuts in March 2020 and September 2024 [1][10] - In 2021, there was no interest rate cut, but the 1 - year LPR was cut by 5BP in Q4. In 2024, the policy rate was cut by 20BP in September and the LPR by 25BP in October [10] - From 2020 - 2022, reserve requirement ratio cuts were about twice a year, once each in H1 and H2, and there were cuts in Q4 of 2021 - 2022. In 2020, affected by the pandemic, comprehensive and targeted cuts were used in H1 [11] 3.2 Central Bank's Stance on Monetary Policy - After the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in early May this year, the policy focus shifted to the implementation of existing policies, with room for flexible adjustment based on the situation [2] - The "opportunistic" in "opportunistic reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts" has three meanings: adverse changes in the economic fundamentals, weakened effects of expansionary fiscal policies, and a sharp decline in the capital market [2][17] - Currently, the necessity for monetary policy to support expansionary fiscal policies may be decreasing, and the focus of monetary policy may be on supporting economic growth, which depends on macro - economic conditions [2][18][19] 3.3 Possibility of Reserve Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cuts This Year 3.3.1 Necessity of a Reserve Requirement Ratio Cut - Banks' liability side faces liquidity pressure in Q4, increasing the necessity of a cut. The high maturity scale of medium - and long - term liquidity, the need to supplement liquidity regularly under the "structural liquidity shortage" framework, and the special situation this year (large - scale high - interest time deposit maturities and a narrowing M2 - M1 gap) all contribute [20][21][24] 3.3.2 Possibility and Boundaries of an Interest Rate Cut - Since 2024, the central bank launched "policy combos" under different domestic and international macro - environments. Currently, there are similarities and differences, leading to a divergence in market expectations for loose monetary policy [28] - Although Q4 economic data is expected to slow down compared to Q3, it doesn't directly mean a window for policy intensification. It is necessary to observe economic performance from November to December and the impact of the tariff game [39][40] - To support the real economy, a cut in structural monetary policy tools may come first. And a cut may not be the only way to promote a reasonable rise in prices and reduce the real economy's financing costs. Also, a cut may put pressure on banks' net interest margins [45][46] 3.4 Impact on the Bond Market - The probability of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts is increasing marginally, but it is not a high - probability event. Reserve requirement ratio cuts and cuts in structural monetary policy tools may come first [48] - If a reserve requirement ratio cut occurs, it may drive down short - term and certificate of deposit rates. If an interest rate cut occurs, the magnitude is crucial, and the bond market may experience a small decline in interest rates, but the downward space is limited by the current low - interest rate level and policy imagination space brought by the "14th Five - Year Plan" [49][50]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the timing and implementation of the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) resumption of government bond trading, as it reflects a reasonable yield point from a short-term central bank perspective [4][13] - The article discusses the potential impact of the PBOC's actions on liquidity management, particularly in relation to the scale of re-lending during the period of government bond purchases [4][14] - It highlights the significance of banks' government bond purchases during the PBOC's operations, indicating that increased purchases could positively affect overall liquidity, while reduced purchases may have a limited impact [4][15] Group 2 - The article presents two considerations regarding the provision of liquidity to non-bank institutions, noting the correlation between non-bank deposits and equity market transaction volumes [6][19] - It suggests that the reduction in volatility of equity assets this year has improved their risk-adjusted returns, enhancing the attractiveness of equity asset allocation [6][21] Group 3 - The article outlines three thoughts on future monetary policy, indicating that the necessity for a short-term reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut is low due to the current economic context [7][24] - It also states that the probability of a short-term policy interest rate cut is low, as it could accelerate the outflow of household deposits into financial markets [7][26] - The possibility of a reduction in the five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is noted, as it could help lower household debt costs and improve the downward trend in housing prices [7][26] Group 4 - The article analyzes the impact of current policies on capital markets, stating that the strength of the equity market this year is attributed to reduced volatility and drawdown [8][27] - It mentions that the PBOC's resumption of government bond trading sets a framework for short-term interest rates, but the actual rates will still depend on supply and demand dynamics [8][27] - Historical experience suggests that a simultaneous bull market in both stocks and bonds requires sustained liquidity injections from the central bank, with the potential for rapid asset price increases due to shifts in non-bank deposits [8][30]

Core Insights - The report presented by the Governor of the People's Bank of China indicates that financial institutions' operational and regulatory indicators remain within a reasonable range, with total assets of financial institutions exceeding 520 trillion yuan by the end of September 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Growth and Economic Support - The financial sector has shown reasonable growth, contributing positively to economic recovery, with social financing scale and broad money supply increasing by 8.7% and 8.4% year-on-year respectively by the end of September [2]. - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was 3.14%, reflecting a low financing cost environment that supports market confidence and economic recovery [2]. - From November 2024 to September 2025, 98 companies in the A-share market raised 91.8 billion yuan through initial public offerings, with 86% being private enterprises and 92% in strategic emerging industries [3]. Group 2: Risk Management and Financial Stability - The report emphasizes the establishment of a comprehensive financial support framework to mitigate risks, with a significant reduction in the number of financing platforms and the scale of operating financial debt by 71% and 62% respectively since March 2023 [4]. - The financial health of commercial banks is robust, with a capital adequacy ratio of 15.36% and a non-performing loan ratio of 1.52% as of September 2025, indicating strong loss-absorption capacity [2]. - The report outlines measures to enhance the macro-prudential management of real estate finance, including lowering down payment ratios and mortgage rates to stabilize the housing market [4]. Group 3: Future Financial Strategies - The next steps include promoting the opening of financial services and markets, facilitating trade and investment, and advancing the internationalization of the renminbi [4]. - The report highlights the importance of developing a cross-border payment system and monitoring the impact of overseas economic conditions on China's financial security [4].