Wind资讯数据显示，12月份有3000亿元MLF到期，因此中国人民银行开展4000亿元MLF操作后，将实现净投放1000亿 元，这也是中国人民银行连续第10个月加量续做MLF。此外，中国人民银行本月还通过买断式逆回购净投放2000亿元。这意味 着12月份中期流动性净投放3000亿元。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对《证券日报》记者表示，12月份资金面存在一定扰动，中国人民银行通过MLF和买断式逆 回购向银行体系持续注入中期流动性，既能保持资金面处于较为稳定的充裕状态，也有助于岁末年初稳增长、稳预期。 根据中国人民银行此前操作，8月份至11月份，每月买断式逆回购及MLF净投放规模均为6000亿元，而本月则减少了3000 亿元。对此，王青认为，这或是源于12月份政府债券净融资规模较前期有所下降；同时，不排除2026年一季度中国人民银行实 施降准向市场注入较大规模长期流动性的可能。 本报记者 刘琪 12月24日，中国人民银行发布2025年12月份中期借贷便利（MLF）招标公告显示，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，12月25 日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展4000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。 ...

2025年，站在"十四五"收官与"十五五"规划谋篇的历史衔接点上，宏观经济环境交织着机遇与挑战。 2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，站在新旧年更替的此刻，也是理解"十五五"经济脉络的关键切口，制约 居民消费的核心矛盾是什么？如何看待促消费政策从"增量拉动"到"结构优化"的转变？"十五五"后，货 币政策还有哪些发力空间？后续黄金走势将如何演绎？围绕上述问题，广发证券首席经济学家郭磊近日 接受了北京商报记者的专访。 2026年提升消费率是主线索之一 北京商报：2025年，一系列消费补贴政策陆续出台，各项促消费政策也呈现出从"增量拉动"到"结构优 化"的转变。您如何评价这种政策逻辑转换的必要性与有效性？展望2026年，要真正实现消费的长期可 持续增长，政策工具箱需要在哪些关键机制上实现突破？ 郭磊：中央经济工作会议指出"国内供强需弱矛盾突出"，正是在这一判断基础上，政策进一步指出"必 须充分挖掘经济潜能"，消费作为需求端的主要组成部分，在政策框架中的位置自然是十分重要的。 2026年作为"十五五"首年，提升消费率毫无疑问是主线索之一。 政策侧重点可能会有所变化，这两年我们的"以旧换新"集中于耐用消费品，这一部分需求 ...

要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。 用好证券、基金、保险公司互换便利和股票回购增持再贷款，探索常态化的制度安排，维护资本市场稳定。 建议发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时机。 防范汇率超调风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，增强宏观政策前瞻性针对性协同性。 着力扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头。 加强对扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的金融支持。 1、央行：要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策 加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度 重要程度：★★★★★ 据央行12月24日消息，中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第四季度(总第111次)例会于12月18日召开。会议分析了国内外经济金融形势，研究了下阶段货 币政策主要思路。要点如下： 持续做好支持民营经济发展壮大的金融服务。 2、楼市大消息!北京调整限购政策 机构：地产板块这些标的暗藏修复机会 重要程度：★★★★ 12月24日，北京市住房和城乡建设委员会等4部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产相关政策的通知》，自2025年12月24日起施 ...

近日，中国人民银行货币政策委员会召开2025年第四季度（总第111次）例会。 在利率方面，本次会议继续建议强化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成传导机制，发挥市场利率定价自律机制作用， 加强利率政策执行和监督。 对于债券市场，会议建议从宏观审慎的角度观察、评估债市运行情况，关注长期收益率的变化。 对于外汇市场，会议继续强调增强外汇市场韧性，稳定市场预期，防范汇率超调风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的 基本稳定。 对于资本市场，会议继续建议"维护资本市场稳定"，提出用好证券、基金、保险公司互换便利和股票回购增持再贷款，探索 常态化的制度安排。 会议未对房地产市场提出建议，但继续提出要引导大型银行发挥金融服务实体经济主力军作用，推动中小银行聚焦主责主 业，增强银行资本实力，共同维护金融市场的稳定发展。 对比三季度例会，本次例会在分析外部形势时，指出当前外部环境变化影响加深，对世界经济增长动能的研判由上季度例会 的"减弱"转为"不足"。在分析国内经济形势时，本次例会未再提及"物价低位运行"，而是提出我国经济运行"仍面临供强需弱 矛盾突出等问题和挑战"。 会议要求继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is experiencing a dichotomy characterized by "summer of growth" and "winter of employment," with significant disparities in economic performance and labor market conditions [3][29]. Economic Growth - The U.S. GDP for Q3 was reported at an annualized rate of 4.3%, exceeding expectations of 3.3%, while the year-on-year growth rate rose to 2.3%, still below the previous year's 2.8% [4][29]. - Key contributors to the GDP growth were consumer spending and net exports, contributing 2.4 and 1.6 percentage points respectively, although consumer spending shows signs of overestimation and disparity [6][30]. Investment Trends - Non-cyclical sectors are showing strong growth, while cyclical sectors are increasingly weak. AI-related investments, despite a decline in growth rate, remain the fastest-growing investment category [8][33]. - Broad AI investments contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP, while private consumption added 1.1 percentage points, indicating a dual-engine growth model [8][33]. Consumer Behavior - Private consumption is strong overall, but there is a notable disparity among different income groups, with actual disposable income growth slowing down [15][38]. - The consumer spending structure shows significant contributions from healthcare, international travel, and entertainment, while broader service demand indicators have not shown exceptional seasonal performance [18][42]. Employment Conditions - Despite rapid economic growth, unemployment rates are rising, and non-farm payroll growth is declining, indicating a concentration of growth in sectors with lower labor demand [23][47]. - Labor market indicators suggest a potential increase in unemployment, with consumer confidence declining after a brief rebound [23][49]. Policy Implications - Current monetary policy appears misaligned with economic indicators, suggesting a need for a more dovish approach to support employment while addressing growth concerns [25][49].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is experiencing a dichotomy characterized by "growth in summer" and "employment in winter," indicating a significant structural divide in economic performance [1][4][18]. Group 1: GDP Performance - The U.S. GDP for Q3 recorded an annualized growth rate of 4.3%, surpassing expectations of 3.3%, while the year-on-year growth rate rose to 2.3%, still below the previous year's 2.8% [2][25]. - Key contributors to the 4.3% growth included personal consumption and net exports, contributing 2.4 and 1.6 percentage points, respectively [4][27]. - There is a notable divergence in economic performance, with AI-related investments showing strong growth while traditional sectors like residential investment remain weak despite interest rate cuts [11][35]. Group 2: Investment Trends - AI-related investments, although experiencing a decline in growth rate in Q3, remain the fastest-growing investment category, contributing 0.8 percentage points to GDP, while private consumption contributed 1.1 percentage points [7][30]. - The volatility in AI investment reflects a normalization after strong growth, highlighting the difference between "committed investment" and "realized investment" [9][31]. - Traditional sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as durable goods consumption and residential investment, continue to show declining year-on-year growth, raising doubts about the effectiveness of rate cuts in stimulating the economy [11][35]. Group 3: Consumer Spending - Private consumption is strong overall, but there is a significant disparity within consumption categories, with actual disposable income growth slowing down, leading to increased reliance on wealth effects, declining savings rates, and borrowing [12][37]. - The spending structure shows that healthcare, international travel, and entertainment are the largest contributors, while broader service demand categories like transportation and dining out have not shown significant seasonal improvement [40][41]. - Excluding healthcare and international travel, the growth in narrow service consumption remains stable but does not reflect the overall service sector's rebound, indicating a widening gap in consumption performance [41]. Group 4: Employment Dynamics - The rapid economic growth in Q3 is juxtaposed with rising unemployment rates and a downward trend in non-farm payroll additions, indicating a concentration of growth in sectors with lower labor demand [18][42]. - The divergence in economic indicators necessitates careful interpretation, as productivity improvements may not be immediately evident, and labor market weakness remains a significant concern [20][45]. - The economic outlook for late 2025 mirrors early 2025, with challenges in distinguishing the effects of policy changes and economic stimuli on growth and employment [22][46].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 400 billion medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a one-year term [1] - The MLF operation on December 25 follows the maturity of 300 billion MLF, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 300 billion for the month, which is a decrease of 300 billion compared to the previous month [1] - Analysts suggest that the decrease in government bond net financing and potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts in Q1 2024 may influence liquidity management strategies [1] Group 2 - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and reasonable price recovery [2] - It is anticipated that the PBOC will utilize various liquidity tools to inject short- to medium-term liquidity into the market, maintaining a stable and ample funding environment [2] - This approach is expected to support the smooth issuance of government bonds and encourage financial institutions to increase credit lending [2]

Core Viewpoint - Gold is expected to reach all-time highs in 2026, driven by structural factors rather than just reactive market conditions [1][6]. Price Movement - The spot gold price surpassed $4,500 per troy ounce for the first time, currently trading around $4,490 per ounce, marking a more than 70% increase in 2025, the best year since 1979 [1]. - Major banks forecast gold prices to range between $4,500 and $4,700 per ounce next year, with potential upside towards $5,000 if macroeconomic conditions remain favorable [3]. Market Drivers - Key drivers for gold's strength include elevated debt levels, policy uncertainty, fragile global alliances, and a declining dominance of the US dollar [2][6]. - The expectation of lower interest rates due to persistent inflation and uneven growth could further support gold prices, as gold typically performs well when real yields fall [3]. Investor Sentiment - Investor positioning in gold is relatively balanced compared to previous peaks, indicating that the market is not overcrowded [4]. - Analysts suggest that gold is likely to find support during pullbacks, attracting renewed interest from both retail and institutional buyers [5]. Future Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices will climb to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, while other analysts expect gold to continue hitting record highs in 2026 [5][4].

文/刘佳 12月24日央行公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，12月25日央行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位 中标方式开展4000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。 因本月有3000亿元MLF到期，12月央行MLF净投放为1000亿元，为连续第十个月加量续作，符合市场 预期。 考虑到本月央行还净投放2000亿元买断式逆回购，这意味着12月中期流动性净投放总额达到3000亿元， 较上月减少3000亿元。 谈及12月MLF与买断式逆回购合计净投放中期流动性规模较上月减少3000亿元，在业内人士看来，这 一方面源于当月政府债券净融资规模较前期有所下降，另一方面也不排除2026年一季度央行实施降准、 向市场注入较大规模长期流动性的可能。 展望2026年，中央经济工作会议要求，"要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价 合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕"。 东方金诚研究部判断，2026央行还会通过各类流动性工具搭配组合，适时向市场注入短中长期流动性， 引导资金面处于稳定的充裕状态。这不仅会继续助力政府债券顺利发行，引导金融机构加大信贷投放， 也将释放数量型政策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has shifted its assessment of the external economic environment from "weakened" to "insufficient," indicating a more cautious outlook on global economic growth [2] - The PBOC's recent meeting emphasized the need for a moderately accommodative monetary policy to address domestic economic challenges, particularly the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand [3] Monetary Policy - The meeting called for the continuation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy, with an emphasis on enhancing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments [3] - The focus has shifted from "increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation" to "leveraging the integrated effects of incremental and stock policies" [3] - The PBOC aims to maintain ample liquidity, aligning the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [3] Tools and Instruments - The PBOC's toolbox for monetary policy has become more diverse, with a range of liquidity injection tools available, including long-term reserve requirement ratio cuts and various market operations [4] - The meeting suggested strengthening the guidance of central bank policy rates and improving the transmission mechanism of market-based interest rates [4] Market Stability - The PBOC emphasized the importance of maintaining stability in the capital market and suggested utilizing various financial instruments to support this goal [4] - There was a continued focus on enhancing the resilience of the foreign exchange market and stabilizing market expectations to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate [4]