研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 10 日星期五 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 20 加 | 【行情复盘】 昨日尿素主力合约 2601 价格下跌 57 元至 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Pulp: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish/bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term bullish/bearish trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the trading floor, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Apple: ★☆☆, showing a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Logs: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, showing a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, showing a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - Cotton & Cotton Yarn: Zhengzhou cotton rebounded. Xinjiang cotton purchase price fluctuated during the National Day. Pure cotton yarn prices were stable but weak. The new year has a strong production increase expectation, supply may increase significantly, and demand remains weak. It's advisable to wait and see [2] - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production data is bearish, and domestic sugar is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The market focus is on the next season's production estimate, and the production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be good [3] - Apple: The futures price rose and then fell. The listing and sales of new - season Red Fuji were affected by rain. The supply lacks bullish drivers, and the cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected, so a bearish strategy is maintained [4] - 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber: During the National Day, international rubber futures prices fluctuated, and today's prices rose. Supply pressure is high, demand declined during the holiday, inventory reduction is difficult, and the strategy is to rebound due to the end of risk - aversion sentiment [6] - Pulp: The pulp futures price continued to fall to a new low. The inventory decreased slightly, but the supply is relatively loose, and demand is average. It's advisable to wait and see [7] - Logs: The futures price fluctuated. The supply is expected to remain low, demand in the peak season is emerging, inventory pressure is small, and a bullish strategy is maintained [8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded, and new cotton's fixed - price quotes decreased compared to before the holiday [2] - Xinjiang cotton purchase price first fell and then rose during the National Day, with normal - moisture purchase prices mostly in the 6 - 6.2 yuan/kg range [2] - Pure cotton yarn prices were stable but weak, and the peak - season performance was not strong [2] - Since mid - September, the continuous decline of Zhengzhou cotton has had a negative impact on cotton purchase prices, and ginners are cautious in purchasing [2] - The new year has a strong production increase expectation, supply may increase significantly, and demand remains weak [2] - Macroscopically, pay attention to the China - US negotiation at the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October [2] - It's advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - During the holiday, US sugar fluctuated. Brazilian sugar production data in the first half of September was bearish, with increased cane crushing and sugar production [3] - Although this year's cane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the increased sugar - making ratio compensated for the loss in sugar production, and Brazil's sugar production will remain high [3] - Domestic Zhengzhou sugar was weakly volatile. The sales rhythm this year was fast, and the spot pressure was relatively light [3] - The market's trading focus has shifted to the next season's production estimate [3] - After July, rainfall in Guangxi was good, and the sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be good [3] - Sugar prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [3] Apple - The futures price rose and then fell [4] - The new - season Red Fuji's listing was delayed due to rain in the production area, and the sales speed slowed down [4] - The spot market had high expectations for the opening price of early - maturing apples [4] - The apple production in the 25/26 season is expected to change little year - on - year, and the supply lacks bullish drivers [4] - In Shaanxi, farmers are bullish, and the reserved fruit volume increased. The cold - storage inventory of new - season Red Fuji may be higher than expected [4] - A bearish strategy is maintained [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - During the National Day, Singapore and Japanese rubber futures prices fluctuated sharply, and international crude oil futures prices first fell and then rose [6] - Today, RU&NR&BR prices rose, and market sentiment improved [6] - Domestic natural and synthetic rubber prices generally rose, and the port price of butadiene overseas was stable [6] - The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period [6] - Before the holiday, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to decline significantly, with some plants shutting down for maintenance and some restarting [6] - The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants increased [6] - During the National Day, tire enterprises had holidays, and the domestic tire operating rate decreased [6] - Before the holiday, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 45.65 tons, with a slight decrease in bonded - area inventory and a large decrease in general - trade inventory [6] - The social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber continued to fall to 1.22 tons, and the upstream butadiene port inventory in China rose to 2.78 tons [6] - During the National Day, demand decreased, supply pressure was high, inventory reduction was difficult, and geopolitical risks decreased. The strategy is to rebound due to the end of risk - aversion sentiment [6] Pulp - The pulp futures price continued to fall to a new low [7] - As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports decreased by 7.9 tons to 203.3 tons, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease [7] - The digestion of warehouse receipts is slow, and the warehouse receipts of Russian needles still suppress the near - term contracts [7] - The current import inventory in China is relatively high year - on - year, and the pulp supply is relatively loose [7] - Pulp demand is still average, and downstream paper mills continue to implement cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement strategies [7] - It's advisable to wait and see [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated, and the spot price was stable [8] - The arrival volume before the holiday increased, and the price of New Zealand radiata pine in October was raised [8] - The domestic spot price was weak, and traders' import willingness decreased [8] - The overseas price was still high, and the domestic spot price was difficult to improve, increasing traders' pressure [8] - The domestic supply is expected to remain low in the short term [8] - The port inventory reduction before the holiday was significant, and the peak - season demand emerged, with smooth inventory reduction [8] - The original inventory was low, and inventory pressure was relatively small [8] - A bullish strategy is maintained [8]

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 9 日星期四 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 节前焦煤主力合约 Jm2601 收于 1126.0；焦炭主力合约 J2601 收于 1623.0。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、本周，五大品种钢材总库存量 1600.72 万吨，环比增 127.86 万吨。其中，钢厂库存 | | | | 量 | 472.56 万吨，环比增 58.63 万吨；社会库存量 1128.16 万吨，环比增 69.23 万吨。 | | | | | 2、国庆长假期间，钢厂主要以消耗原有库存为主，节后为了维持连续性生产，存在阶 | | | | | 段性的补库需求。但是考虑到目前钢厂普遍面临利润空间有 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating weakly" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic urea start - up has rebounded this week. Agriculture is still in the off - season, and industrial demand is rising slowly. Upstream factories continue to accumulate inventory, and there is still pressure on upstream orders before the holiday. The short - term urea price will oscillate at a low level, with a reference range of 1620 - 1720 yuan/ton. Traders should hold a light position or be out of the market approaching the holiday [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Review - On Monday, the price of the main urea contract 2601 dropped by 9 yuan to 1664 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China's mainstream area remained stable at 1610 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions decreased by 8102 lots to 191,900 lots, and short positions decreased by 7699 lots to 234,900 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 199,400 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons from the previous working day. The current operating rate is 85.2%, an increase of 0.08% compared to 85.13% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.2182 million tons, an increase of 52,900 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 4.54%. The inventory of the urea port sample is 496,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19,000 tons [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 35.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%, and the operating rate of melamine is 56.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.4% [1] - Policy: The fourth batch of quotas in China is expected to be mainly distributed to production enterprises, especially those using natural gas as raw materials, similar to the second - batch quota recipients. The total quantity is estimated to be 500,000 - 600,000 tons, with a low proportion for trading enterprises. The specific distribution time is expected to be around the National Day [1] - Economy: The OECD released a mid - term economic outlook report on the 23rd, predicting that the global economic growth rate in 2025 will be 3.2%, an upward adjustment of 0.3 percentage points from the forecast in June this year; the global economic growth rate in 2026 will slow down to 2.9%, the same as the June forecast [1] Market Logic - The short - term urea price will oscillate at a low level due to the increase in domestic urea start - up, off - season agriculture, slow - rising industrial demand, and inventory accumulation in upstream factories [1] Trading Strategy - Traders should hold a light position or be out of the market approaching the holiday [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The market has entered a short - term slight oscillation phase. The international soybean market supply remains loose with significant overall pressure, and the upward space for US and Brazilian soybeans is limited. The domestic soybean meal supply - demand is relatively loose with inventory pressure. The rapeseed meal inventory is at a relatively low level, but the demand is also average, and the price lacks obvious fluctuations. The rebound space of the soybean meal inter - monthly spread may be limited, and the rapeseed meal inter - monthly spread may continue to show some downward pressure [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Today, the US soybean market oscillated. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal also oscillated slightly. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal changed little. The inter - monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined slightly [4]. - For futures prices, soybean meal contract 01 closed at 2933, down 4; contract 05 at 2743, down 8; contract 09 at 2852, down 6. Rapeseed meal contract 01 closed at 2416, up 11; contract 05 at 2323, down 4; contract 09 at 2407, unchanged [4]. - For spot basis, the basis of soybean meal in Tianjin remained at 40, in Dongguan increased from - 50 to - 40, and in Zhangjiagang remained at - 60. The basis of rapeseed meal in Nantong decreased from 65 to 44, in Guangdong decreased from 95 to 84, and in Guangxi decreased from 85 to 74 [4]. - For inter - monthly spreads, the 15 - spread of soybean meal increased from 186 to 190, the 59 - spread decreased from - 107 to - 109, and the 91 - spread decreased from - 79 to - 81. The 15 - spread of rapeseed meal increased from 78 to 93, the 59 - spread decreased from - 80 to - 84, and the 91 - spread decreased from 2 to - 9 [4]. - For cross - variety spreads, the 01 spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased from 532 to 517, the 09 spread decreased from 451 to 445, and the 01 oil - meal ratio remained at 2.779 [4]. - For spot spreads, the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased from 328 to 332, the spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal increased from 538 to 542, and the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal remained at 230 [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In the US, the ending stocks of the old - crop soybean balance sheet were slightly increased. The new - crop production slightly decreased in yield but increased in planted area, with overall supply slightly increasing. The price decline space is limited, and the market is mainly affected by exports [5]. - In South America, the old - crop soybean supply - demand is loose. The production of major exporting countries is expected to increase by 15.39 million tons, and the crushing volume by 8.21 million tons. The Brazilian farmers' selling progress is slow, and the price pressure exists, but the high price is due to optimistic export expectations [5]. - Internationally, the supply pressure of soybean meal is obvious. The annual crushing volume of major producing areas is expected to increase by 21.536 million tons, while the import volume of major importing countries only slightly increases [5]. - Domestically, the spot market of soybean meal is loose. As of September 26, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2672 million tons, the operating rate was 63.28%, the soybean inventory was 7.1991 million tons, up 3.63% from last week and 14.38% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.1892 million tons, down 4.86% from last week and 3.04% year - on - year [7]. - The demand for domestic rapeseed meal is gradually weakening. As of September 26, the crushing volume of rapeseed in coastal oil mills was 20,000 tons, the operating rate was 5.33%, the rapeseed inventory was 26,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from last week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 15,000 tons, down 2,500 tons [7]. 3.3 Macro - analysis - The Sino - US Madrid negotiation was completed. Due to the lack of clear macro - guidance, the market is worried about the uncertainty of subsequent supply. However, China's long - term demand for US soybeans exists, so the price is unlikely to drop significantly in the short term [8]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to short a small amount of soybean meal [9]. - For arbitrage, a long spread between M11 and M1 is recommended [9]. - For options, a short strangle strategy is suggested [9]. 3.5 Soybean Crushing Profit - The crushing profit varies by origin and shipping date. For example, for Argentine soybeans with an 11 - month shipping date, the crushing profit was - 31.91, down from 0. For Brazilian soybeans, the crushing profit also changed with different shipping dates [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase beyond expectations this year, while ginneries have average enthusiasm for purchasing, and large - scale rush purchases are not expected. Some market expectations put the purchase price around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg. As new cotton is listed in large quantities, there will be certain selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The downstream demand has slightly improved, but the improvement is limited, so the peak season this year is expected to be mediocre, and its boosting effect on the futures market is also limited [8]. - It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly weak volatile trend. It is recommended to trade opportunistically. For arbitrage and options, it is advised to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: For cotton futures contracts (CF01, CF05, CF09), prices decreased, with CF01 closing at 13350, down 55; for棉纱 futures contracts (CY01, CY05, CY09), CY01 closed at 19485, down 65. Trading volumes and open interest also changed. For example, the trading volume of CF01 was 245,440, an increase of 49234, and the open interest was 530,559, a decrease of 4260 [3]. - Spot: The CCIndex3128B price was 14953 yuan/ton, down 90; the Cot A price was 0.00 cents/pound, down 77.70. The prices of other spot products such as polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber also had corresponding changes [3]. 3.1.2 Spreads - Cotton inter - delivery spreads: The spread between January and May was - 10, down 10; the spread between May and September was - 170, up 10. - Cotton - yarn inter - delivery spreads: The spread between January and May was - 90, down 19640. - Cross - variety spreads: The spread between CY01 and CF01 was 6135, down 10. - Domestic - foreign spreads: The domestic - foreign cotton spread (1% tariff) was 1092, down 48 [3]. 3.2 Market News and Views 3.2.1 Cotton Market News - As of September 15, 2025, the cumulative new cotton listing volume in Pakistan in the 2025/26 season reached 311,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40%. However, due to the early harvest of dry - land cotton and concentrated precipitation in July and August, the quantity and quality of later - listed cotton may be affected [6]. - As of September 27, 2025, the cotton planting area in India in the 2025/26 season was 10.999 million hectares, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%. The planting areas in major producing areas such as Maharashtra and Gujarat decreased, while that in Telangana increased [7]. - The pre - sale quotes of new cotton in the 2025/26 season continued to increase. The mainstream sales basis of 41 - grade non - lightly spotted polluted double - 29 machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang with impurities within 3.5 was around CF01 + 1100, with higher quotes ranging from 1200 to 1300, for delivery before mid - October [7]. 3.2.2 Cotton Trading Logic - With new cotton gradually entering the acquisition stage, the market focus is shifting to the opening price of new cotton. The expected increase in Xinjiang cotton output and the average enthusiasm of ginneries for purchasing lead to the expectation of no large - scale rush purchases. The expected purchase price is around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg. As new cotton is listed in large quantities, there will be selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The downstream demand has slightly improved, but the peak season is expected to be mediocre [8]. 3.2.3 Cotton Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly weak volatile trend. It is recommended to trade opportunistically. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [9]. 3.2.4 Cotton - yarn Industry News - Over the weekend, the trading atmosphere in the pure cotton - yarn market was average, with few new orders for enterprises, and downstream purchases were mainly for rigid demand. Cotton - yarn prices remained stable. As the decline in cotton prices was greater than that in yarn prices, the cash flow of enterprises improved. The peak season in September was mediocre, weaker than the same period in previous years, and market confidence was insufficient. - In the all - cotton grey fabric market in September, both volume and price lacked peak - season characteristics. Orders for grey fabric factories were average, with thick - type fabrics being the main products in production. Conventional and high - count orders were few. Export orders were average, with intense competition and extremely low profit margins [11]. 3.3 Options - The implied volatility of CF601C14000.CZC was 13.1%, and its price decreased by 33.6%. The implied volatility of CF601P13600.CZC was 12%, and its price increased by 5.7%. The implied volatility of CF601P13400.CZC was 12.3%, and its price increased by 5.1%. The 120 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly compared to the previous day [13]. - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7310, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.7294. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased. It is recommended to wait and see for options [14][15]. 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the domestic - foreign cotton spread under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, the spread between CY05 and CF05, the spread between CY01 and CF01, and the spreads between different delivery months of cotton futures [18][25][26].

Group 1 - The profitability of shorting alumina futures is determined solely by the "price difference" [1] - The profit and loss formula for shorting is: Profit/Loss (CNY/ton) = Opening Price - Closing Price - Fees [1] - A short position incurs losses only when the closing price exceeds the opening price [1] Group 2 - Factors that can drive alumina prices up, leading to potential losses for short sellers, include: sudden reluctance to sell in the spot market, environmental production limits in the north, and fluctuations in bauxite supply [2] - Other contributing factors include concentrated purchasing by electrolytic aluminum plants and inventory levels dropping below safety thresholds [2] - Insufficient registered warehouse receipts in the delivery month can lead to short squeezes by bulls [2] - Macroeconomic factors such as a weakening dollar and a general rise in commodity prices can create emotional premiums [2] - Setting stop-loss orders can limit and control potential losses, ensuring that there is no absolute scenario where "prices can only rise and not fall" [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Possibly bullish [2] - Zinc: Possibly fluctuating weakly in a wide range [2] Core View of the Report - Copper prices closed 0.7% lower overnight. Concentrate supply has been tight since the beginning of the year, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output has continued to grow at a high rate. Grid investment has continued positive growth, power supply investment has slowed down, automobile production and sales have shown positive growth, home appliance production scheduling has shown negative growth, and the real estate market has remained weak. The Indonesian mine accident will probably lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices [2]. - Zinc prices closed 1.25% lower overnight. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally rebounded, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased on a weekly basis. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment has slowed down, automobile production and sales have shown positive growth, home appliance production scheduling has shown negative growth, and the real estate market has remained weak. Short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards oversupply, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly in a range [2]. Summary by Related Catalog Copper - Overnight copper price dropped 0.7%. Since the beginning of the year, concentrate supply has been tight, but smelting output has grown rapidly. Grid investment grows positively, power supply investment slows, auto production and sales grow, home appliance production declines, and real estate is weak. The Indonesian mine accident may cause a global copper supply - demand gap, supporting copper prices in the long run. The strategy direction is possibly bullish [2]. Zinc - Overnight zinc price dropped 1.25%. Zinc concentrate processing fees rise, smelting profits turn positive, and output is expected to increase. Galvanized sheet inventory rises weekly. Infrastructure investment growth slows, auto production and sales grow, home appliance production declines, and real estate is weak. Short - term supply - demand may turn to oversupply, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly. The strategy direction is possibly fluctuating weakly in a wide range [2]. Market Data - Copper: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 82,470 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 10 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 10,205 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 33.91 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 144,425 tons, and daily change is - 350 tons [2]. - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 20,755 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 10 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,649 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 3.80 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 515,925 tons, and daily change is - 1,225 tons [2]. - Zinc: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 21,950 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 95 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,887 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is 39.18 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 43,800 tons, and daily change is - 600 tons [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 121,100 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 1,180 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 15,155 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 178.77 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 230,586 tons, and daily change is 0 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 17,070 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 130 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,002 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 39.07 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 219,550 tons, and daily change is - 175 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 273,600 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 840 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 34,415 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 48.22 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 2,740 tons, and daily change is 45 tons [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, recommended to hold a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - **Black building materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; bullish on glass, recommended to buy on dips [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Neutral on copper, recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday; bullish on aluminum, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on nickel, recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; neutral on tin, recommended for range trading; neutral on gold and silver, recommended for range trading [1][10][11][18][19] - **Energy and chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefin, recommended for range trading; recommended for shorting 01 contract and longing 05 contract in soda ash [1][20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31][32] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, recommended for range trading; neutral on PTA, recommended for narrow - range trading; bullish on apples, recommended for range - bound and upward trading; bearish on jujubes, recommended for range - bound and downward trading [1][33][34][35] - **Agriculture and livestock**: Bearish on pigs and eggs, recommended to short on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for range trading; neutral on soybean meal, recommended for weak - range trading; bullish on oils, recommended for bottom - building and slight rebound trading [1][37][39][40][42][43] Core Views - Affected by the weakening of the external market and the pre - holiday effect, the A - share market is cautious, with significant structural differentiation. Stock indices are expected to oscillate in the short term and are bullish in the long term. Treasury bonds are recommended to be observed due to potential long - term downward pressure [5] - The black building materials market is mixed. The coal market is active, while rebar is affected by weak industry and strong macro factors. Glass is expected to be supported by demand in October and is recommended to be bought on dips [7][8] - Non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors such as supply disruptions and macro policies. Copper is expected to be high - range volatile, aluminum is recommended to be bought on dips, nickel is recommended to be shorted on rallies, and tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range trading [10][11][17][18][19] - In the energy and chemical sector, most products are expected to oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost fluctuations, and policy uncertainties. Soda ash is recommended for a specific arbitrage strategy [20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31][32] - The cotton textile industry chain shows different trends. Cotton and cotton yarn are affected by supply - demand changes, PTA is affected by cost and supply - demand games, apples are expected to be strong, and jujubes are expected to be weak [33][34][35] - In the agriculture and livestock sector, pigs and eggs are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances. Corn is expected to oscillate, soybean meal is expected to be weak, and oils are expected to rebound slightly [37][39][40][42][43] Summaries by Categories Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: In the short term, the A - share market is affected by external and pre - holiday factors, with active large - tech sectors and weak small - cap stocks. In the long term, it is bullish, and buying on dips is recommended [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond market rebounded on Friday, the long - term downward pressure remains. It is recommended to observe and pay attention to the end - of - month data [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market is active due to factors such as production reduction and price increases. It is recommended for range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price dropped last Friday. It is currently undervalued, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to observe or conduct short - term trading before the holiday [7] - **Glass**: The spot price increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to be supported by demand in October. Buying on dips is recommended [8] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by the mine accident in Grasberg, the copper price is expected to be high - range volatile. It is recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The alumina price is under pressure, while the electrolytic aluminum demand is in the peak season. Buying on dips is recommended [12][13] - **Nickel**: The nickel supply is in an oversupply situation in the long term. Shorting on rallies is recommended [17] - **Tin**: The tin supply is tight, and the downstream consumption is recovering. Range trading is recommended [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the US economic data and Fed policy expectations, range trading is recommended [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the 01 contract is recommended to focus on the 4850 - 5050 range [20][21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply and demand are in a balanced state. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is recommended to focus on the 2450 - 2650 range [22][23] - **Styrene**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited. It is expected to be weak - range volatile, and the 6700 - 7100 range is recommended [25] - **Rubber**: The downstream tire factory's pre - holiday replenishment is completed. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 15500 level is recommended as the support [25] - **Urea**: The supply increases, and the demand is scattered. It is recommended to focus on the 01 contract's 1600 - 1630 support [26][27] - **Methanol**: The supply recovers, and the demand increases. It is expected to be strong - range volatile, and the 2330 - 2450 range is recommended [27] - **Polyolefin**: The demand recovers, and the supply increases slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the range, and the LL and PP contracts are recommended to focus on the 7200 - 7500 and 6900 - 7200 ranges respectively [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract due to the expected supply increase [31][32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply and demand are adjusted, and the future price may face pressure. Range trading is recommended [33] - **PTA**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, it is expected to be narrow - range volatile [33][34] - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm, and it is expected to be strong - range volatile [34] - **Jujubes**: The market is light, and it is expected to rebound in a range [35] Agriculture and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply is large, and the price is under pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 05 - 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: The short - term price is under pressure, and shorting on rallies is recommended. The 12 and 01 contracts are recommended to be observed [39] - **Corn**: The new crop supply eases the tight supply situation. A short - selling strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [40][41] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weak - range volatile. Holding long positions on dips is recommended [42] - **Oils**: The palm oil and soybean oil fundamentals have some support, and the rapeseed oil supply has a gap. It is expected to rebound slightly, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunities [43][44][45][46][47][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradictions affecting the propylene market include the possible repeated submission of "anti - involution", the vulnerability of spot prices to individual device fluctuations, and the insufficient demand of major downstream PP, which leads to a contraction in the price difference between PP and propylene and a lack of ability to accept high - priced propylene. The PL01 contract is expected to oscillate between 6200 - 6600 yuan/ton. The propylene trend is highly correlated with polypropylene, and the PP - PL spread oscillates between 490 - 540 yuan/ton. Recently, as PP maintenance increases, its valuation is repaired, and propylene follows the upward trend [1]. - In the short - term, the spot price is relatively stable, and the futures price rebounds slightly. The previous expectation of a narrowing basis has basically been fulfilled. The basis has shrunk from a high of 190 to - 15 yuan/ton. Considering the characteristics of the 01 contract, the month - spread strategy is to conduct reverse arbitrage at high prices, and the hedging and arbitrage strategy is to widen the PP - PL spread at low prices [15][17]. - In the long - term, there are expectations of new capacity coming on stream on the supply side, and the growth rate of PP terminal demand is lower than that of supply, leading to inventory accumulation [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - "Anti - involution" may be repeatedly submitted, affecting market expectations [1]. - Spot prices are easily affected by individual device fluctuations. With the restart and increased load of some devices in the Shandong region, the supply - demand gap in the spot market has widened [1]. - The main downstream PP has sufficient supply but insufficient demand. The price difference between PP and propylene has significantly shrunk, and most downstream industries have poor profit conditions and resist high - priced propylene [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The market is in an oscillatory state, and the price range of PL01 is 6200 - 6600 yuan/ton. For the unilateral strategy, those who went long at around 6300 can still hold their positions [15]. - **Basis Strategy**: The basis is in an oscillatory state. The previous expectation of a narrowing basis has basically been fulfilled, and currently, the spot is stable in the short - term, and the futures price rebounds slightly [15]. - **Month - Spread Strategy**: Conduct reverse arbitrage at high prices. Considering that 01 is a forced cancellation month, the direction is still to conduct reverse arbitrage at high prices [16][17]. - **Hedging and Arbitrage Strategy**: Widen the PP - PL spread at low prices. When the PP - PL spread is around 500, add positions [17]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted price range of propylene is 6250 - 6600 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 0.0513 and a historical percentage of 0.102 (3 - year) [19]. - **Hedging Strategy**: For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high, short - sell propylene futures at high prices and sell call options to lock in profits and reduce costs. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, buy propylene futures at low prices and sell put options to lock in procurement costs and reduce costs [19]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: On the crude oil side, sanctions and disputes around Russia drive the market up. On the industrial side, as PP maintenance increases this week, its valuation is repaired, driving propylene up. Additionally, as PDH profits are compressed, planned maintenance increases [20]. - **Negative Information**: This week's data on the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits and the second - quarter GDP are better than expected, increasing the probability of a pause in interest rate cuts in October [21]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - On September 30th, China's official manufacturing PMI will be released [23]. - On October 1st, the US September ISM manufacturing data is expected to be 49.2, higher than the previous value of 48.7 [23]. - On October 3rd, economic data such as the US unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls will be released [23]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: This week, the PL01 contract first declined and then rebounded. The trading volume did not change much. The net long positions of the main profitable seats decreased, the positions in the top - ten long and short lists did not change significantly, the net short positions of profitable seats decreased slightly, foreign investors' net short positions increased slightly, and retail investors' net long positions increased slightly [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: From the daily line, propylene is in a rebound during an oscillatory decline, and the short - term upper pressure is still near the middle track. From the hourly line, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating a possible transition to oscillatory consolidation in the short - term [24]. - **Basis and Month - Spread Structure**: This week, the basis of propylene 01 closed at - 15 yuan/ton, compared with - 67 yuan/ton last week. The 01 - 02 month - spread of propylene closed at - 34 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from last week, showing an overall reverse arbitrage trend but with oscillations [27]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream Profits This week, the gross profit of major refineries was 823.98 yuan/ton (- 98.7), and that of Shandong local refineries was 204.72 yuan/ton (- 73.48). Although the profits of major refineries increased, the cracking capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, mainly affected by the new cracking capacity of Yulong [30]. 3.4.2 Mid - stream Profits - The cracking profit of Asian naphtha was - 56 US dollars/ton (- 27), and that of Asian propane was - 14 US dollars/ton (- 12). Propane cracking profit was better than naphtha cracking profit, but as the propane price strengthened, propane cracking profit weakened [32]. - The PDH profit based on FEI cost was - 215 yuan/ton (- 65), and that based on CP cost was - 170 yuan/ton (- 175). Currently, both the propylene monomer and PP sectors are in a loss - making state [32]. 3.4.3 Downstream Profits - The price difference between PP raffia and propylene was 225 yuan/ton (+ 160), and that between PP powder and propylene was 255 yuan/ton (+ 130). The pressure caused by the price difference still exists [34]. - The profit of propylene oxide (PO) by different methods showed different trends. The profit of acrylonitrile was - 1191 yuan/ton (+ 6), with little change. The profit of acrylic acid was + 391 yuan/ton (+ 214), with a significant improvement. The profit of butanol was + 147 yuan/ton (+ 84), with little change. The profit of octanol was 264 yuan/ton (- 84), with a relatively large decline recently but still in a relatively good profit state among downstream products. The profit of phenol - acetone was - 371 yuan/ton (- 87), with little change [36]. 3.4.4 Import and Export Profit Tracking The price difference between Chinese and South Korean propylene has shown little recent fluctuation. With fewer planned maintenance activities in South Korea in September and October, imports are expected to remain at a high level [41]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory Projection 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection in the Shandong Market This week, both supply and demand in the Shandong market increased. In October, Binhuahua and Lihuayi have maintenance plans, and the supply - demand gap will oscillate [43]. 3.5.2 Market Supply - Side and Projection - This week, due to the resumption of production by some enterprises, the overall operating rate of propylene increased to 75.52% (+ 1.67%), still at a high level. In October, Jilin Petrochemical, Guangxi Petrochemical, and Yulong Petrochemical still have plans for production start - up and capacity increase, while on the PDH side, Bohua, Binhuahua, Haiwei, Lihuayi, etc. have maintenance plans [46]. - This week's supply increase mainly comes from the increased load of Wanhua Penglai. The production volume in the Shandong region is expected to oscillate in the next few weeks. Although Zhenhua is restarting, Jinneng's maintenance is postponed, and the maintenance plans of Binhuahua and Lihuayi are expected to offset some of the incremental supply [48]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - The price difference between PP powder and propylene is still relatively low, and many devices are shut down. This week, Shandong Kairi resumed production at a low - load operation [54]. - In the Shandong region, demand increased this week, mainly due to the resumption of production of PP devices. There were different production - related changes in various downstream industries such as PP granules, PP powder, propylene oxide, acrylonitrile, acrylic acid, butanol - octanol, and phenol - acetone [73].