贵金属数据日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 用器500强投资企业 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/7/1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/登司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/6/30 | 3292. 28 | 36. 21 | 3303. 50 | 36. 44 | 765. 46 | 8762.00 | 762.56 | 8742. 00 | ...

Group 1 - The announcement by Lai Ching-te's administration to impose high tariffs on imported beer and steel from mainland China marks the beginning of an economic and political confrontation, reflecting the anxiety of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and escalating tensions across the Taiwan Strait [1][3] - The temporary anti-dumping tax on mainland beer imports includes a 33.85% tax on Budweiser and a 13.13% tax on Kirin BAR, with other manufacturers facing rates as high as 64.14%. Additionally, hot-rolled steel products from the mainland are subject to tariffs ranging from 16.9% to 20.15% [3] - Taiwan's exports to mainland China account for 40% of its total exports, with an annual trade surplus exceeding $100 billion. The DPP's actions may underestimate the economic interdependence and potential retaliatory measures from the mainland [3][5] Group 2 - The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has responded to the DPP's provocations with increased military activity, including the deployment of 38 aircraft and naval vessels near Taiwan, creating a significant military presence that pressures the DPP [5] - The ongoing confrontation highlights a shift in the balance of power between the two sides, with Ma Ying-jeou's call for "peaceful democratic unification" boosting confidence among pro-unification factions, while the DPP's tariff measures reveal its vulnerabilities [5][7] - The potential for a long-term shift towards "peaceful unification" is increasing as domestic public opinion and economic pressures evolve, despite the DPP's short-term strategies [7][8]

欧盟（资料图） 值得玩味的是，欧盟的态度曾出现微妙摇摆。6月中旬，为配合与美谈判，欧盟一度取消中欧高层经济对话。但美国在七国集团峰会上的背弃 （特朗普提前离场并再度发出关税威胁），彻底浇灭了欧盟的幻想。塞伯特透露，欧盟甚至准备了针对美国服务业的反制"组合拳"——从数字 服务税到限制公共采购合同，直击美国科技巨头的核心利益。 据国际在线消息，7月9日的钟声正滴答作响——美国"对等关税"90天暂停期的最后期限步步紧逼，一场牵动全球贸易神经的摊牌时刻即将来 临。在这场由美国单方面掀起的贸易风暴中，中国商务部于6月底向世界发出清晰信号：任何国家若以牺牲中国利益为代价换取美国关税豁免， 必将面临中方的坚决反制。这不是空洞威胁，而是对公平贸易规则的捍卫宣言。 美国的关税大棒挥舞得毫无章法，其"对等关税"政策被中方斥为赤裸裸的单边霸凌，严重冲击多边贸易体制根基。更令人警觉的是，美方在谈 判中竟要求贸易伙伴主动限制对华贸易，以此作为豁免关税的筹码。这种试图分裂全球产业链的霸道行径，让国际社会看清了华盛顿的算盘： 既想遏制中国，又想独吞中国市场红利。 贸易（资料图） 硝烟味最浓烈的战线横跨大西洋。面对美国反复无常的极限施压—— ...

法国总统马克龙在西班牙塞维利亚举行的发展筹资国际会议上发表讲话时表示，强国征收关税往往是一种“勒索”，而不是实现贸易再平衡的手段。马克龙还曾表示，在发动贸易战的同时要求欧洲人增加国防开支是一种精神错乱。美国白宫发言人莱维特驳斥马克龙的说法，坚称关税是重建美国制造业的有效工具。 ...

农产品早报 2025-07-01 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周一美豆小幅上涨后回落，USDA 面积报告显示 2025 年大豆种植面积为 8336 万英亩，较 3 月意向仅下 调 13 万英亩，市场反应平淡。上周交易天气较好及贸易战担忧美豆整体回落，不过美豆估值略低，可 能存在一定支撑。周一国内豆粕现货小幅上调 30-50 元左右，华东报 2840 元/吨，油厂开机率下调但仍 较高，豆粕成交较弱，提货仍较好。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内港口大豆库存为 809 万吨，油厂豆粕库 存 69.16 万吨，维持累库趋势。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区。巴西方面，升贴水近期稳定小涨，中国买盘有所放缓， 中美大豆关税仍未 ...

美股银行股全线狂飙。 30日晚间，美股三大指数集体走强，美股大型银行股集体大涨，高盛一度大涨超3%，富国银行、摩根大通、 花旗银行盘中股价均创出历史新高。消息面上，美国大型银行通过了美联储年度压力测试，为启动数十亿美元 股票回购和股息派发扫清障碍。 与此同时，美国财长贝森特也有最新表态。贝森特表示，最后一周将有一系列贸易协议达成。任何关税谈判的 延期都将由美国总统特朗普决定。 对于关税政策的影响，华尔街警告称，随着特朗普在今年4月掀起的全球"贸易战"的影响逐步显现，美股上市 公司的利润率将在第二财报季迎来一场"大考"。 全线大涨 北京时间6月30日晚间，美股开盘后，三大指数震荡走强，截至23:20，道指涨0.29%，纳指涨0.10%，标普500 指数涨0.13%。 美股大型银行股集体大涨，高盛一度大涨超3%，盘中创出历史新高；富国银行涨近2%，摩根大通、花旗银行 涨超1%，盘中股价均刷新历史新高。 消息面上，美联储最新公布的压力测试显示，美国大型银行能够承受严重经济衰退冲击，并拥有充足资本吸收 数千亿美元损失。 据美联储公告，在此次覆盖22家资产超千亿美元银行的测试中，所有机构在极端假设情景下均能将资本水平维 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways" rating for cotton [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The international cotton market is expected to maintain a low - level sideways pattern in the second half of the year, with an estimated operating range of 65 - 80 cents per pound. The domestic cotton market is also expected to have a low - level sideways pattern, with an estimated range of 12,500 - 14,500 yuan per ton. Attention should be paid to factors such as weather, trade policies, and macro - dynamics [2][3] - For investment strategies, it is recommended to focus on short - term opportunities to short the January contract on rallies and conduct band trading within the estimated range. Also, pay attention to potential reverse arbitrage opportunities between November and January contracts [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. First Half of the Year: Trade Wars Intensified Cotton Market Fluctuations - In the first quarter, the external market was weakly sideways with a downward shift in the center, while the domestic market was range - bound and relatively resilient. The international market faced a more relaxed supply - demand situation, and the trade war cast a shadow over demand. The ICE cotton price fluctuated weakly around the cost of US cotton, with an operating range of 63 - 69 cents per pound. The domestic market had support from low raw material inventories in downstream spinning enterprises and low social inventories of cotton yarn, but was also constrained by unhedged and unpriced resources of ginning factories and concerns about demand due to the trade war. The Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated in the range of 13,300 - 13,900 yuan per ton [16] - In the second quarter, trade policy changes led to intensified fluctuations in both the external and domestic markets. The external market was relatively stable, while the domestic market was more volatile. The price difference between the domestic and international markets first narrowed and then widened. Overall, the domestic market was stronger than the external market [17][18][19] 3.2. International Cotton Fundamental Situation 3.2.1. United States - The USDA may have limited room to further lower the production estimate for the 2025/26 US cotton season. The actual sown area may be lower than the intended area, and the abandonment rate is expected to be between 10% - 20%. The estimated production range is 2.9 - 3.265 million tons [22][23][25] - The export target for the 2024/25 US cotton season has been basically achieved, but the export contract signing for the 2025/26 season has been slow. As of June 12, the cumulative export contract volume for the 2025/26 season was 378,000 tons, a 15% year - on - year decrease [37][38] - The inventory - to - use ratio of US cotton in the 2025/26 season is expected to decline year - on - year but remain at a moderately high historical level. The estimated inventory - to - use ratio is between 29.3% - 30.8%, and the ICE cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 65 - 85 cents per pound [53] 3.2.2. India - The monsoon rainfall is expected to be abundant, and there is a possibility of an increase in the planting area and production. The USDA's estimates of India's cotton planting area and production may be underestimated [60][62] - The net import volume of Indian cotton in the 2025/26 season may continue to increase. Attention should be paid to the US - India trade negotiations and the inventory digestion progress of the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) [68] 3.2.3. Brazil - Brazil's cotton production in 2025 is expected to reach a record high. The Conab has continuously raised its production estimate, and the latest estimate is 3.915 million tons, a 6.5% year - on - year increase [76] 3.2.4. Global - The global supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 season is not expected to be tight. The USDA's subsequent estimates of global supply and demand may be adjusted to a more relaxed direction. The estimated global cotton production may be revised upwards by 400,000 - 600,000 tons or more, and the consumption may remain stable or slightly decline [84][87][89] 3.2.5. International Cotton Market Fundamental Summary and Market Outlook - It is expected that the cotton market will maintain a low - level sideways pattern in the second half of the year, with an estimated operating range of 65 - 80 cents per pound. Attention should be paid to factors such as weather, trade policies, and macro - dynamics [98] 3.3. Domestic Cotton Fundamental Situation 3.3.1. The Planting Area of Xinjiang Cotton has Expanded in the 2025/26 Season - The planting area of Xinjiang cotton has expanded due to planting structure adjustment and the reclamation of new land. The estimated increase in the national cotton planting area is between 1.7% - 3.3% [105] 3.3.2. Ginning Factories may Remain Rational in New Cotton Purchases - Ginning factories are expected to purchase new cotton rationally. The initial purchase price of seed cotton is expected to be flat or slightly lower year - on - year and then fluctuate weakly. The purchase price of cottonseed is expected to be higher than that of last year [110][111][112] 3.3.3. Commercial Inventory of Old Cotton has been Reduced Rapidly - The commercial inventory of old cotton has been reduced rapidly, which has led to concerns about a potential shortage during the transition between the old and new cotton seasons [3] 3.3.4. Registered Warehouse Receipts - Attention should be paid to the outflow of warehouse receipts in inland warehouses. If the warehouse receipts cannot be digested, there may still be reverse arbitrage opportunities between November and January contracts [4] 3.3.5. Import Volume of Cotton and Cotton Yarn has Decreased - The import volume of cotton and cotton yarn in the 2024/25 season has decreased [3] 3.3.6. Trade Wars and Textile Demand - Trade wars and the uncertain trade policies have cast a shadow over the demand for cotton. The downstream textile industry is in a slack season, and the demand in the second half of the year may be weaker than that of last year [2][3] 3.3.7. Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand situation in the 2024/25 season was tight, while the 2025/26 season may be a year of easy inventory accumulation [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant impact of Trump's tariff policies, which have raised the average tariff in the U.S. to its highest level in a century, reminiscent of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 [1] - The historical context of tariffs is explored, comparing Trump's actions to those of President Hoover, suggesting that the consequences may not be as severe this time due to differing political influences within Trump's administration [1] - The U.S. economy is currently experiencing low unemployment rates, with figures below 4%, indicating a strong economic performance despite concerns about potential downturns due to tariffs [3][4] Group 2 - Inflation in the U.S. has been primarily driven by fiscal policies during Biden's early presidency, with significant deficits contributing to increased consumer spending and subsequent inflation [4] - The Federal Reserve's response to inflation has been criticized for being delayed, with a recognition that aggressive measures should have been taken earlier to control rising prices [5] - Economic growth in the U.S. is expected to slow down due to the impact of tariffs, with projections suggesting a decrease in growth from 2.8% to around 2.5% [6][7] Group 3 - The article highlights a shift in global financial dynamics, with the U.S. national debt reaching $35.46 trillion, equivalent to 125% of GDP, and a decline in the dollar's share of global reserves from 71.5% in 2011 to 57.8% in 2024 [9] - Despite concerns about the safety of U.S. debt, it is argued that the dollar remains dominant due to the size of the U.S. financial market, which constitutes a significant portion of global equity markets [12][13] - The potential for China to emerge as a competitor in the global financial landscape is noted, with increasing interest from investors in Chinese markets [13] Group 4 - China's economic data shows a 2.4% increase in total goods imports and exports in the first four months of 2025, with a notable 13.4% growth in consumer goods manufacturing investment [15][16] - The article suggests that China's export performance may decline in the second quarter due to tariff impacts, but the flexibility of Chinese exporters is expected to mitigate severe downturns [16] - Recommendations for China to stimulate domestic consumption include direct cash transfers or consumption vouchers, which have shown effectiveness in previous instances [18][20]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is preparing to implement retaliatory tariffs against the United States, targeting $95 billion worth of American goods, in response to ongoing trade tensions and to secure a better trade agreement [1][3]. Group 1: EU's Trade Strategy - The EU is coordinating its stance internally to prepare for potential retaliatory measures against the U.S. before the July 9 deadline for trade negotiations [1]. - The proposed tariff list includes items such as Boeing aircraft, automobiles, and bourbon whiskey, aimed at countering Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" [3]. - EU officials express that a passive approach is politically unfeasible, indicating a shift towards a more aggressive trade strategy [3]. Group 2: Global Trade Implications - The ongoing trade war between the U.S. and EU could lead to significant global economic repercussions, including a potential loss of $6.75 trillion in global GDP if the tariff conflict escalates [5]. - The trade dispute is seen as a precursor to a broader restructuring of global economic order, with the U.S. high tariff policies negatively impacting both its own growth and European economies [7]. - China's position as a stable and cooperative market is highlighted as a counterbalance to the uncertainties created by U.S.-EU trade tensions [7].

Core Viewpoint - The essence of restarting is to seek new possibilities and embrace change in the second half of 2025 [3][105]. Group 1: Time Management - The excessive consumption of short videos leads to wasted time and a sense of emptiness, suggesting the need to reclaim time sovereignty [15][18][21]. - Recommendations include closing personalized video recommendations, utilizing fragmented time for learning, and establishing a focused work environment [22][23][24]. Group 2: Health and Well-being - Emphasizing the importance of health as a prerequisite for a high-quality life, with suggestions for resetting biological clocks, exercising regularly, and optimizing diet [26][32][36][37][38]. Group 3: Financial Management - The need to build a financial fortress in uncertain times, advocating for better spending habits, debt management, and savings [43][44][47]. - Strategies include budgeting across different accounts, reducing unnecessary expenses, and exploring side jobs for additional income [48][49][50]. Group 4: Career Stability - The significance of maintaining stable employment in uncertain times, with a focus on enhancing professional skills and emotional management in the workplace [58][61][62]. - Encouragement to engage in deep work to improve efficiency and personal growth [63]. Group 5: Social Networking - The correlation between personal growth and social circles, suggesting that changing environments can lead to new opportunities [66][70]. - Recommendations include avoiding negative influences, actively seeking new connections, and being open to asking for help [72][73][74]. Group 6: Cognitive Development - The importance of cognitive upgrades for personal breakthroughs, advocating for expanded knowledge and practical application [82][86][88]. - Suggestions include broadening cognitive boundaries, mastering thinking models, and integrating knowledge with action [86][87][88]. Group 7: Environmental Influence - The impact of living environments on personal well-being, highlighting the need for cleanliness and organization to foster positive energy [92][98]. - Recommendations for decluttering, organizing spaces, and creating a pleasant home environment to enhance mood and attract good fortune [102][103][104].