数据延迟发布，美联储官员需继续观察后续经济指标变化以作出决策。据CME"美联储观察"显示美联 储12月维持利率不变的概率为60.4%，降息25个基点的概率为39.6%。 一、美联储货币政策前景分歧 11月19日公布的美联储10月会议纪要显示，政策制定者在降息问题上存在分歧，许多与会者支持降低联 邦基金利率目标区间，但同时也指出部分支持降息的成员对维持利率不变同样可接受，多数官员认为随 着时间的推移会进一步放松政策，多位官员预计12月降息将是合适的，但也有几位官员表示不一定会在 12月份降息。 美联储主席鲍威尔此前明确表示，12月会议降息并非板上钉钉，此次会议纪要也显示决策者对于12月是 否降息尚未达成一致意见。美联储副主席杰斐逊表示，在进一步降息时应谨慎行事，以免削弱其抗通胀 努力，达拉斯联储主席洛根明确反对12月降息，堪萨斯城联储主席施密德称过早宽松可能强化通胀黏 性，当前利率水平对经济恰到好处；而米兰继续呼吁以50个基点幅度加速降息，强调经济下行压力需更 强力政策对冲。市场也对12月降息预期起伏不定，金银本周处于震荡行情且维持较大波动。 二、就业数据或继续疲弱 11月20日美国劳工统计局公布了迟到的9月非 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a dramatic reversal on November 20, 2025, influenced by Nvidia's strong earnings report and subsequent investor concerns about tech stock valuations and interest rate expectations [1][4][15]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Nasdaq index opened high, rising 2.18% to a peak of 23,147.33 points, but ultimately closed down 2.15%, a drop of 486.18 points, ending at 22,087.05 points [1]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 exhibited similar single-day movements, reflecting overall market sentiment [3]. - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, surged 11.67% to 26.42 points, marking a 32.10% increase over the past five days [3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Market Reversal - Concerns over tech stock valuations arose after Nvidia's third-quarter revenue and profit exceeded expectations, leading to fears that the positive news was fully priced in and that growth may have peaked [6]. - The release of mixed U.S. non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly above the forecast of 52,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3% [7]. - The market's expectations for interest rate cuts diminished, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December dropping from 50.1% to 35.5% [7]. Group 3: Impact on Tech Stocks - The decline in interest rate expectations negatively affected tech stocks reliant on cheap capital, leading to significant sell-offs, including Oracle's stock, which fell 6.58% [9]. - Concerns about private credit risks and potential asset valuation vulnerabilities in the financial system contributed to a broader market sell-off [10]. - Bitcoin prices continued to decline, further correlating with tech stock performance, as leveraged trading in Bitcoin exacerbated selling pressure on high-valuation tech stocks [11]. Group 4: Trading Dynamics - Programmatic trading strategies, particularly from CTA funds, amplified market volatility as they triggered further sell-offs when market thresholds were breached [12]. - The options market, particularly zero-day-to-expiration options, played a role in exacerbating market movements, as market makers adjusted positions to hedge risks, leading to concentrated selling pressure [13]. - The "iron condor" strategy in options trading was identified as a factor suppressing market rebounds, as it required market makers to sell stocks to manage risk exposure [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve monetary policy and reduced investor interest in high-risk assets suggest that global markets, particularly U.S. stocks, may continue to face downward pressure [15]. - This environment may present opportunities for long-term investors to identify value amidst market volatility [15].

Market Overview - The market experienced significant fluctuations on November 21, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling over 2% and the ChiNext Index dropping over 4% [2] - By the end of the trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 2.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 3.41%, and the ChiNext Index declined by 4.02% [2] - Nearly 5,100 stocks in the market declined, with 99 stocks hitting the daily limit down [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.97 trillion yuan, an increase of 257.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Stock Performance - Only 354 stocks in the entire A-share market rose, which is slightly higher than the 106 stocks that rose on April 7 this year [3][4] - The market saw a significant increase in trading volume during specific time periods, particularly at the market open and between 10:30 and 11:30, indicating heightened trading activity [4][8] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment shifted towards fear, with panic selling observed as the indices continued to decline [6][9] - The previous days had shown a lack of significant panic, but the current market conditions indicated that "panic funds" had finally emerged [11] - The market's ability to recover or continue to decline remains uncertain, with ongoing debates about whether the current situation represents a rebound or a continuation of the downtrend [11] Influencing Factors - Concerns regarding the U.S. stock market, particularly technology stocks, have influenced market sentiment, with traders worried about whether AI can generate sufficient revenue to justify investments [14] - The potential for a "independent market" in A-shares, supported by protective funds and internal logic, is being closely monitored [14] - The "national team" of funds has increased its holdings in 222 A-share stocks, with a total market value of 3.911 trillion yuan, indicating a strategic focus on stabilizing the market [19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic stock index futures show resilience with volatility decreasing. After Q3 reports, A - shares are in repricing adjustment. Short - term fluctuations are common, and it's recommended to wait and see. Consider a bull spread of put options in case of a deep daily decline [2]. - Treasury bond futures had a differentiated performance yesterday. With limited driving forces, the bond market may continue to fluctuate narrowly. A range - trading strategy is recommended [2]. - Gold prices are oscillating between $4000 - $4200 due to mixed US non - farm data and cautious Fed officials. A double - selling strategy for out - of - the - money gold options can be considered. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and short - term observation or light - position trading is advised [2]. - The EC (European line) container shipping index futures are in short - term decline. It's recommended to close short positions [2]. - Steel prices are expected to stabilize with improved apparent demand. Iron ore is oscillating, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. For coking coal and coke, a bearish view is taken with specified price ranges [2]. - Copper prices are oscillating weakly as the probability of interest rate cuts decreases. For various non - ferrous metals, different trading strategies are recommended according to their price trends [2]. - In the new energy and chemical sectors, prices of many products such as polysilicon and PTA are oscillating. Different trading strategies are proposed based on their supply - demand situations [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, prices of products like soybean meal, palm oil, and sugar are showing different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Domestic stock index futures are in a state of repricing adjustment. Short - term fluctuations are normal, and it's recommended to wait and see. A bull spread of put options can be considered in case of a deep daily decline [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to fluctuate narrowly. A range - trading strategy is recommended [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in the $4000 - $4200 range, and a double - selling strategy for out - of - the - money options can be used. Silver follows gold, and short - term observation or light - position trading is advised [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are expected to stabilize with improved apparent demand [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is oscillating. A wait - and - see approach is recommended with a reference range of 750 - 810 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: A bearish view is taken with a price range of 1050 - 1200 [2]. - **Coke**: A bearish view is taken with a price range of 1550 - 1700 [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices are oscillating weakly. The main reference range is 85000 - 86500 [2]. - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals**: Different trading strategies are recommended for various non - ferrous metals according to their price trends [2]. Energy and Chemical - **New Energy and Chemical Products**: Prices of products like polysilicon, PTA, and short - fiber are oscillating, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on supply - demand [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: For products like LLDPE, PP, and PVC, different trading strategies are recommended according to their price trends and supply - demand situations [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and attention should be paid to the support around 3000 [2]. - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil prices are continuing to decline, and the main contract may reach 8900 in the short term [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Different trading strategies are recommended for products like sugar, cotton, and eggs according to their price trends [2].

Core Viewpoint - Despite the high valuation pressure on US tech stocks leading to market sell-offs, which has spread to Asian and European markets, gold has seen a mild rebound. However, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rate cuts has limited the upside for gold prices [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent sell-off in US tech stocks has influenced global markets, pushing gold prices to experience a mild rebound [1]. - The Federal Reserve's signals against rate cuts have led to a reduction in market bets for a December rate cut, which has put pressure on gold prices [1][3]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - Gold prices faced resistance at $4,110, retreated to $4,042, and then fluctuated around $4,085 before stabilizing [3]. - The price of gold fluctuated within a range, with a low of $4,038 and a closing price around $4,087, indicating a range-bound trading pattern [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The release of the US non-farm payroll data for September showed mixed results, with an increase in job numbers but a rise in the unemployment rate and a slowdown in wage growth [3]. - Following the data release, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut slightly increased to 35%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate approached 65% [3].

Core Viewpoint - The overnight decline in US stocks has significantly impacted global markets, particularly affecting technology stocks, with the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping over 3% during trading. Group 1: Market Impact - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell more than 3% amid the broader market decline [1] - Notable declines in individual stocks include Huahong Semiconductor down 4.49% to HKD 74.5, SMIC down 3.95% to HKD 70.6, Alibaba down 3.49% to HKD 149.4, and Tencent down 1.98% to HKD 96.55 [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly exceeding expectations [1] - There is increasing division within the Federal Reserve regarding inflation concerns, with three senior officials expressing worries on the same day, complicating the outlook for potential interest rate cuts in December [1] Group 3: Company Performance - Nvidia reported a 62% year-over-year increase in Q3 revenue to USD 57.01 billion and provided a strong guidance for Q4 [1] - Despite Nvidia's strong performance, investor concerns regarding an AI valuation bubble persist, with Ray Dalio suggesting that while the market may be forming a bubble, investors do not need to exit immediately but should adopt defensive measures [1]

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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of treasury bond futures is to maintain a sideways consolidation in the short term. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the medium - to - long - term expectation of a loose monetary environment still exists. The market driving force is weak, and there is a divergence in the trends among different varieties [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is sideways, the medium - term view is sideways, and the intraday view is weak. The reference view is sideways consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the medium - to - long - term loose expectation still exists [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is sideways, and the reference view is sideways consolidation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures continued to move in a sideways consolidation yesterday, with a divergence in the trends among varieties. The market driving force is weak. The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged yesterday, resulting in a weak short - term expectation of interest rate cuts. The latest economic data such as consumption, investment, and exports have weakened, indicating a lack of effective domestic demand. A relatively loose monetary environment is needed in the medium - to - long - term to stabilize domestic demand, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, there is no strong need for the policy side to increase efforts this year, and the possibility of a short - term policy interest rate cut is low, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for treasury bond futures [5].

美联储12月降息预期骤降，日韩股市跟随隔夜美股科技股下跌。A股开盘，三大指数集体低开，沪指低 开0.87%报3896.66点， 深证成指低开1.76%， 创业板指低开2.07%。盘面上， 锂矿、电池、 存储芯片等 板块调整。 ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年11月21日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 黄金 1、基本面：美国9月非农新增就业人口11.9万大超预期，金价回落；美国三大股指 全线收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率 跌4.83个基点报4.085%；美元指数涨0.10%报100.22，离岸人民币对美元小幅升值报 7.1179；COMEX黄金期货跌0.15%报4076.7美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货932.56，现货930.2，基差-2.36，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单90426千克，增加810千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日 ...