1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector is generally weak. Soybean meal and live pigs have declined, and the prices of some varieties are expected to continue their downward trends or remain volatile at low levels, while cotton shows an upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - The soybean sector is weak. Soybean meal prices have fallen to new lows due to sufficient imported soybeans, high crushing volumes, and high inventory, and the downward trend may continue. Live pig prices have dropped. With high inventory, there is a risk of concentrated slaughter at the end of the year. Although demand has increased, the supply still exceeds demand, and prices are expected to remain volatile at low levels [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The main 2605 contract of soybean meal continues to decline, affected by the fall of US soybeans, sufficient domestic soybean supply, and high - inventory pressure. From January to November this year, China's imported soybean volume reached 103.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to look for resistance levels to place light short positions [2]. 3.2.2 Rapeseed Oil - The main 2605 contract of rapeseed oil continues to decline, pressured by the expectation of improved supply. Australian rapeseed is about to enter the crushing process after arrival, and there are rumors that COFCO is inquiring about distant - month Canadian rapeseed. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light short positions [3]. 3.2.3 Live Pigs - The main 2603 contract of live pigs reverses and declines, returning to the low - level range. High inventory, high selling willingness of farmers, and the risk of concentrated supply at the end of the year, along with substitute products diverting some consumption, lead to the decline. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading [6]. 3.2.4 Sugar - The main 2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar continues to decline, affected by the seasonal supply pressure of new sugar. Overseas, the production of major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase. Domestically, the southern sugarcane crushing is in full swing. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light short positions [9]. 3.2.5 Cotton - The main 2605 contract of cotton fluctuates upward and remains at a high level, supported by demand. From January to November this year, cotton imports decreased by 64% year - on - year. The sales rate has increased significantly, and downstream consumption is strong. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to place long positions on dips [12]. 3.2.6 Eggs - The main 2602 contract of eggs continues to decline, pressured by sufficient supply. The egg - laying hen inventory is high, and demand is weak. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light short positions [13][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - For the US corn market, it has entered the export peak season with high phased supply pressure, and the global and US corn supply - demand remains relatively loose, suppressing international prices. However, the USDA's downward adjustment of the 2025/26 US corn ending - inventory forecast supports the price [3]. - In the domestic Northeast region, the acquisition of reserve warehouses has increased since December, supporting the market bottom. But high prices limit purchasing enthusiasm, and with rumors of wheat and reserve corn regulation, the supply has increased and prices have fallen [3]. - In the North China and Huang - Huai regions, new - season corn supply is abundant, industry operating rates are rising, and supply - side pressure is increasing. Although the inventory of starch enterprises has increased, holiday备货 may boost demand, and the rise of cassava starch may also increase the demand for corn starch [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2190 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 monthly spread is - 27 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 1001351 lots, an increase of 12746 lots; the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 87155 lots, an increase of 9707 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 53277 lots, a decrease of 1163 lots; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 335 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2499 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton; the 3 - 5 monthly spread is - 47 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 104235 lots, a decrease of 27863 lots; the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 30748 lots, an increase of 2763 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 2500 lots [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 440.75 cents/bushel, an increase of 4.75 cents; the total open interest is 1616139 contracts, an increase of 13001 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is 120900 contracts, an increase of 77887 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2349.61 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.17 yuan/ton; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2290 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the CIF price of imported corn is 2121.58 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.11 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 50 dollars/ton [2]. - Corn starch: The factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2570 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan/ton), 2800 yuan/ton, and 2730 yuan/ton respectively; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton; the basis of the main corn contract is 159.61 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.83 yuan/ton; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 466 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton [2]. - Substitute spot prices: The average wheat price is 2516.39 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.39 yuan/ton; the spread between cassava starch and corn starch is 725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 239 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Corn production forecasts: The predicted annual production in the US is 425.53 million tons, a decrease of 1.58 million tons; in Brazil is 131 million tons; in Argentina is 53 million tons; in China is 295 million tons; in Ukraine is 32 million tons [2]. - Sown areas: The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 36.44 million hectares (an increase of 0.55 million hectares), 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, and 44.3 million hectares respectively [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 31.5 tons, a decrease of 20.2 tons; at northern ports is 152 tons, a decrease of 11 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 294 tons, an increase of 18.6 tons; the starch enterprise inventory is 107.4 tons, an increase of 2.5 tons [2]. - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 36 tons, an increase of 30 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 19.17 tons, an increase of 6.39 tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2977.9 tons, an increase of 20.9 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Consumption: The weekly consumption of deep - processed corn is 141.67 tons, a decrease of 0.09 tons [2]. - Operating rates: The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 68.22%, a decrease of 2.06%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 62.31%, a decrease of 0.53% [2]. - Processing profits: The processing profits of corn starch in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are 2 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton), 74 yuan/ton, and - 67 yuan/ton (a decrease of 14 yuan/ton) respectively [2]. Option Market - Corn historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility is 11.7%, a decrease of 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.45% [2]. - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 1.48%, a decrease of 7.11%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 5.17%, a decrease of 3.41% [2]. Industry News - China's corn and corn flour imports in November were 56 tons, a year - on - year increase of 87.5%. The cumulative imports from January to November were 185 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86.1% [2]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2025年12月18日，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。钯封涨停板，涨幅7%，焦煤涨超6%，铂、焦炭涨超 5%，沪银涨超3%，沪锡、玻璃、烧碱、纯碱涨超2%；跌幅方面，集运欧线跌超3%，多晶硅跌超2%， 豆二、豆一跌超1%。 | 문을 | 音约名称 | 最新 | 现手 | 天仍 | 英语 | 味相关 1 | 200 | 英语 | 成交通 | 味肤 | 持仓量 | 日期仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 22606 M | 476.60 | 2 | 476.60 | | 6.99% | 88 | --- | 68166 31.15 | | 12754 | 3631 | | 2 | 焦模2605 M | 1126.5 | 77 | 1126.0 | 1126.5 | 6.07% | 19 | 75 | 1700429 | 64.5 | 501353 | 4342 | | 3 | 焦炭2601 M | 1603.5 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 点评 17 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 8470 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.56%，持仓 增仓 8547 手至 21.1 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9593 元/吨，较上一交易 日上调 13 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格跌至 8850 元/吨，现货升水收至 380 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 61595 元/吨，日内涨幅 4.36%，持仓增仓 5450 手至 15.3 万手；百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格持稳 在 52350 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴 水扩至 9295 元/吨。西南两地硅厂减产达到此前预期位置，由于减产节奏 拉的比较长，减产不及下游采购跌量，市场对于减产消息反馈不太敏感。 当前成交集中在套保单或未交付前期订单。工业硅自身缺乏涨势，短期受 多晶硅带涨。晶硅现货过剩和仓单短缺结构性矛盾下，日内厂家大幅提升 现货报价，与部分咨询网站延续持稳报价相悖。当前平台收储情绪发酵， 叠加仍未出现大量注册新仓单，近月多头情绪开始向全合约蔓延。期现逻 辑脱钩， ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 18 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 塑料 2601 | 6515 | 6439 | 6515 | 6432 | -76 | -1.17 | 119319 | -16584 | | 塑料 2605 | 6525 | 6479 | 6543 | 6470 | -66 | -1.01 | 540127 | 29984 | | 塑料 2609 | 6558 | 6514 | 6568 | 6501 | -60 | -0.91 | 12595 | 2163 | | PP2601 ...

【期现】 截至12月17日收盘，焦煤期货震荡走势，夜盘反弹，以收盘价统计，焦煤近月2601合约-3.0(-0.31%)至 970.5，焦煤主力2605合约-5.5(-0.52%)至1062.0，1-5价差走强至-92.0。S1.3G75山西主焦煤(介休)仓单 1230元/吨，环比+0.0元/吨，基差+168.0元/吨；S1.3G75主焦煤(蒙5)沙河驿仓单1135/吨(对标)，环比-4.0 元/吨，蒙5仓单基差+73.0元/吨。焦煤期货大幅下跌后反弹，山西煤焦现货延续跌势，蒙煤现货报价跟 随期货波动。 【供给】 截至12月11日，汾渭统计88家样本煤矿产能利用率83.45%，环比-1.05%，原煤产量842.82万吨/周，周环 比-10.58万吨/周，原煤库存198.18万吨，周环比+3.51万吨，精煤产量432.89万吨/周，周环比-5.29万吨/ 周，精煤库存126.52万吨，周环比-1.09万吨。 截至12月17日，钢联统计523矿样本煤矿产能利用率86.6%，周环比+1.3%，原煤日产192.7万吨/日，周 环比+2.9万吨/日，原煤库存478.9万吨，周环比+6.5万吨，精煤日产75.7吨/日，周环 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 18 日 纸浆：宽幅震荡 20251218 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.506 | 5.468 | +38 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5,538 | 5, 458 | +80 | | | | 成交量(手) | 319.068 | 525, 963 | -206. 895 | | 期货市场 | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 207. 655 | 207. 844 | -189 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 187.098 | 190. 664 | -3,566 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -17.545 | -22, 914 | +5, 369 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | 94 | 132 | -38 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) | -856 | -818 | -38 | | | 月差 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [8] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Neutral [8] Core Views - The report analyzes the aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy markets, considering factors such as production, inventory, cost, and consumption. It concludes that aluminum and aluminum alloy prices may have limited downside in the long - term, while alumina faces supply - side pressure [6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Price and Inventory - On December 17, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,750 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract opened at 21,845 yuan/ton and closed at 21,915 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton. The domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 596,000 tons, up 12,000 tons from the previous period [1][2] Market Analysis - Mozambique's 500,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum production capacity will be cut in March 2026 due to water and electricity shortages and high power costs. The Fed's December interest rate cut has been priced in, and there are few short - term macro - level positive factors. The social inventory is not smoothly decreasing, and the spot discount is difficult to repair. However, the low inventory level limits the downside of aluminum prices [6] Alumina Price and Inventory - On December 17, 2025, the alumina main contract opened at 2,539 yuan/ton and closed at 2,558 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton (0.95%). The Shanxi price was 2,755 yuan/ton, the Shandong price was 2,685 yuan/ton, etc. The overseas East Australia FOB price was 310 US dollars/ton. The domestic warehouse receipt pressure is not relieved, with over 110,000 tons of January - due warehouse receipts [2] Market Analysis - Some mines in Guinea are resuming production, increasing the price pressure on the ore end. The supply side is unlikely to have large - scale production cuts in the short term, and the supply surplus pattern cannot be reversed. The electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material reserves, and the winter storage replenishment expectation is low [7] Aluminum Alloy Price, Inventory, and Cost - profit - On December 17, 2025, the Baotai civil raw aluminum purchase price was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the mechanical raw aluminum purchase price was 16,900 yuan/ton, both up 100 yuan/ton. The ADC12 Baotai quotation was 21,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The social inventory was 73,100 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 58,100 tons. The theoretical total cost was 21,245 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 145 yuan/ton [3][4][5] Market Analysis - The report has a cautiously bullish view on the aluminum alloy market, but no detailed analysis of market factors is provided in the given text [8]

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-12-18 供需两端持续承压，价格反弹乏力 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6479元/吨（-64），PP主力合约收盘价为6254元/吨（-2），LL华北现货为6450 元/吨（-50），LL华东现货为6580元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6200元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-29元/吨（+14），LL 华东基差为101元/吨（+64）， PP华东基差为-54元/吨（+2）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-100.0元/吨（+5.1），PP进口利润为-268.1元/吨（+4.9），PP出口利润为-12.1美元/吨（-0.6）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为46.4%（-1.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.6%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.1%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为62.9%（+0.3%）。 市场分析 PE方面，供应端12月PE总体检修量级不高，后期计划检修量亦相对有限，PE开工预期持续回升，且巴斯夫50万吨 FDPE新装置预期年底投产，供应宽松压力持续；需求端，PE下游整体开工继续下滑，其中农膜开工进入淡季，棚 膜需求 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-18 矿山干扰消息频传，碳酸锂接近涨停 市场分析 2025-12-17，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于101500元/吨，收于108620元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化7.61%。当日 成交量为1158611手，持仓量为668589手，前一交易日持仓量666027手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-11010元 /吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单15636手，较上个交易日变化350手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价94600-99500元/吨，较前一交易日变化1200元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价93300-95600元/吨，较前一交易日变化1100元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1330美元/吨，较前一日变化70美元/吨。 近期碳酸锂价格表现强势，昨日碳酸锂期货主力合约接近涨停，主要是受到矿端干扰消息影响。继宁德时代枧下 窝矿被关停后，江西宜春自然资源局发布的关于注销27个采矿权的公示。该公示引发了市场对锂资源供应的担忧， 但值得注意的是，今日价格异常上涨主要反映了情绪面的波动，与行业基本面关联较弱。此外，社会库存延续下 降趋势，供应紧张局面未改，也在一定程度 ...