Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market in November saw a decline in both supply and demand, with a larger decline in supply. However, due to the large supply base and the replenishment of the spot market by cancelled warehouse receipts, there is still pressure to accumulate inventory. In December, the decline in production is expected to narrow, but if the organic silicon industry reduces production, the inventory accumulation pressure will increase. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and short positions can gradually take profits at low prices [1]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is expected to stabilize. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. In the short term, the supply of polysilicon is relatively high, but the long - term supply - demand balance driven by the exit of backward production capacity will support the price. The futures price has fallen back to a reasonable range, and attention should be paid to the support level, as well as the establishment of platform companies, production control, demand changes, and the digestion of warehouse receipts after the November contract cancellation [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The market maintains a supply - demand surplus pattern, with short - term supply pressure increasing. The price is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction trends of high - cost enterprises [3][4]. - **Aluminum**: The price will fluctuate between macro - level positive factors and weak fundamentals in the short term. The medium - term supply shortage pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to downstream start - up changes, inventory reduction rhythms, and overseas policy trends [3][4]. Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, a bullish view on tin prices is maintained. Existing long positions can be held, and attention should be paid to macro - level changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [6][7]. Zinc - The fundamentals provide limited support for the continuous upward movement of zinc prices. In the short term, it may still be volatile. An upward breakthrough requires an improvement in demand, and a downward breakthrough requires continuous inventory accumulation. The export of zinc ingots may boost domestic zinc prices, and the short - term main contract reference range is 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [9]. Copper - The market expects the probability of an interest rate cut in December to decline, and the copper price is oscillating weakly. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center. The main contract reference range is 85,000 - 86,500 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to changes in demand and overseas interest rate cut expectations [10]. Nickel - The macro - level exerts some pressure, and the improvement in fundamentals is limited. The medium - term supply is abundant, which restricts the upward space of the price. The short - term driving force is weak, and the main contract reference range is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - level expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [12]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro - level driving forces are insufficient, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. The supply - side pressure from steel mills' production schedules and social inventory remains, and demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to steel mills' production reduction and nickel - iron prices [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is in a situation of both supply and demand growth. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the main contract LC2601 has risen. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large enterprises, changes in demand after the peak season, and the possible acceleration of the release of upstream projects at high prices. Long positions established earlier can consider partial profit - taking [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, while the futures price decreased. The basis of some varieties changed significantly [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of different contracts showed various changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: National and regional production, as well as the national start - up rate, showed different trends. The production of some downstream products also changed, and the inventory of industrial silicon showed an overall upward trend [1]. Polysilicon - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, the futures price fell, and the arbitrage window closed. The component price gradually recovered [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly and monthly data showed that polysilicon production increased slightly, silicon wafer production decreased slightly, and the inventories of both increased [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price and Spread**: The price of aluminum increased slightly, and the price of alumina in some regions decreased. The spreads and premiums also changed [3][4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Alumina and electrolytic aluminum production increased in October. The start - up rates of aluminum processing industries showed different trends, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained stable [3][4]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of tin remained unchanged, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased significantly [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of different contracts showed various changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Tin ore imports decreased in September, while refined tin production increased in October. The import and export volumes of refined tin changed slightly [6]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of zinc increased slightly, and the spreads and import - export profits changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: Refined zinc production increased in October, and the start - up rates of zinc processing industries showed different trends. The inventory of LME increased, and the domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased [9]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: The price of copper increased slightly, and the spreads, premiums, and import - export profits changed [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: Electrolytic copper production and import volume decreased in October. The start - up rates of copper rod production showed different trends, and the inventory of different types of copper changed [10]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: The price of nickel increased slightly, and the spreads and import - export profits changed [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production and import volume increased. The inventory of SHFE and social inventory increased, while the LME inventory decreased [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of stainless steel decreased slightly, and the spreads changed [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly, the import volume increased, and the export volume decreased. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the spreads changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate increased in October, and the inventory decreased. The production capacity and start - up rate increased [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each sector [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold Market**: On Thursday, precious metals fluctuated, with London gold constrained below $4,100. The US September non - farm payrolls data was mixed, and Fed officials had different views on interest rate cuts. Domestic gold ETFs continued to see inflows. The recommended trading strategy is to buy at the lower support level [2]. - **Silver Market**: The tight supply situation is gradually easing. It is recommended to gradually reduce long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated downward. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the market anticipates a tight supply - demand situation for electrolytic copper next year. With unclear macro - drivers, the recommended strategy is to wait and see [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased slightly. The smelters are operating at high loads, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [3]. - **Alumina**: The price of the alumina main contract decreased slightly. Some alumina plants are undergoing early maintenance or reducing production. The supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to change, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [3][4]. - **Zinc**: The price of the Shanghai zinc contract decreased slightly. Supply is differentiated between domestic and overseas markets, and demand is weak. The recommended strategy is to short at high prices [4]. - **Lead**: The price of the Shanghai lead contract decreased slightly. The supply of lead concentrate is in short supply, and demand is affected by high prices. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main contract decreased significantly. Supply decreased, and demand is supported by the polysilicon industry. With the planned production cut, the price has strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions and be cautious about short - selling [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract decreased. Supply is expected to increase, and the inventory reduction speed has slowed down. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices during the callback [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of the main contract decreased. Supply decreased slightly, and downstream production decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [5]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. The supply - demand situation of steel is weak, with significant structural differentiation. It is recommended to hold short positions in the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract, and the reference range for RB01 is 3040 - 3090 [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. The supply - demand situation is weakening marginally. It is recommended to hold short positions in the iron ore 2605 contract, and the reference range for I01 is 760 - 795 [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. The supply - demand situation is weakening, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to hold short positions in the coking coal 2605 contract, and the reference range for JM01 is 1100 - 1140 [6]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term CBOT soybean price is weak. The global supply - demand situation is gradually improving. The US soybean price is expected to fluctuate, and the domestic price may weaken in the short term [7]. - **Corn**: The corn futures price is running weakly. The short - term supply is tight, but the long - term price is expected to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions [7]. - **Edible Oils**: The Malaysian palm oil price decreased. The near - term supply is high, and the long - term supply is expected to decrease seasonally. The P contract is in a contango structure, and it is difficult to determine the unilateral price [7]. - **Sugar**: The price of the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract decreased slightly. Internationally, the Indian export quota affects the price, and the long - term global production is expected to increase. Domestically, the price is expected to follow the international trend. It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton price fluctuates weakly, and the domestic cotton price fluctuates narrowly. It is recommended to wait and see, with a range - trading strategy between 13400 - 13600 yuan/ton [7]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures price rebounded, and the spot price decreased. The supply pressure decreased, and the demand weakened. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7][8]. - **Hogs**: The hog futures price is running weakly, and the spot price increased in most areas. The supply is still abundant, and the demand is expected to increase seasonally. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract fluctuated slightly. The supply pressure is rising but at a slower pace, and the demand has weakened. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or conduct a bear - spread [9]. - **PTA**: The PX supply is balanced and loose, and the PTA is in inventory accumulation. It is recommended to take profits on PX long positions and short the PTA processing margin in the far - month contracts [9]. - **PP**: The main contract decreased slightly. The supply pressure is rising, and the demand is weak. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or conduct a bear - spread [9]. - **MEG**: The supply may decrease in the short term but increase in the long term. The demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices above the 01 contract [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price weakened. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it can be shorted at high prices if the Russian oil production cut is less than 500,000 barrels per day [10]. - **Styrene**: The main contract rebounded slightly. The short - term supply - demand situation has improved, but the long - term situation is still weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the upside limited by the import window [10].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility, with strong earnings from Nvidia initially boosting market sentiment, but ultimately all three major indices closed lower due to renewed valuation concerns and diminished expectations for interest rate cuts [1][4]. Market Performance - The Dow Jones index fell by 0.84% to 45,752.26 points, the S&P 500 index decreased by 1.56% to 6,538.76 points, and the Nasdaq index dropped by 2.15% to 22,078.05 points [3]. - Nvidia's stock rose by 5% during the day but closed down by 3%, despite CEO Jensen Huang's comments on strong demand for the Blackwell chip and denial of an AI bubble [3][4]. Employment Data Impact - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for September increased by 119,000, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 52,000, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.4%, slightly above the forecast of 4.3% [3][4]. - This strong employment data has further lowered expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December now below 40% [4]. Sector Performance - Walmart was one of the few bright spots, with its stock rising over 6% after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter sales and revenue, partly due to growth in its e-commerce business [4][5]. - The market is witnessing a shift of funds from high-valuation tech stocks to defensive companies, as indicated by Walmart's performance [5]. Technology Stocks - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Nvidia down 2.97%, Microsoft down 1.60%, Apple down 0.86%, Google down 1.15%, Amazon down 2.49%, Meta down 0.19%, Tesla down 2.21%, Broadcom down 2.14%, and Oracle down 6.58% [5]. - Chinese concept stocks also fell, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 3.26%, Alibaba down 3.53%, JD down 1.68%, Pinduoduo down 4.31%, NIO down 6.09%, Xpeng down 5.10%, Li Auto down 2.32%, Bilibili down 4.54%, Baidu down 4.36%, NetEase up 0.40%, Tencent Music down 5.61%, and Pony.ai down 4.86% [5].

Market Overview - On November 21, US stock markets experienced significant volatility, with the Nasdaq initially rising over 2% due to Nvidia's strong earnings report, but ultimately closing down over 2% as valuation concerns resurfaced and interest rate cut expectations were further dampened [1][3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.84% to 45,752.26 points, the S&P 500 dropped 1.56% to 6,538.76 points, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased 2.15% to 22,078.05 points [3] Nvidia Performance - Nvidia's stock rose by 5% during the day but closed down 3%. CEO Jensen Huang emphasized strong demand for the Blackwell chip and denied the existence of an AI bubble, yet market concerns prevailed [3] - Analyst Jeff Kilburg from KKM Financial noted that Nvidia's momentum is being overshadowed by declining expectations for a December interest rate cut, which was previously anticipated [3] Employment Data Impact - The US non-farm payrolls report for September showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly above the market estimate of 52,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.4%, slightly above the expected 4.3% [3] - This strong employment data has contributed to lowering expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a December cut now below 40% [3] Retail Sector Highlights - Walmart was one of the few stocks to perform well, with its shares rising over 6% after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter sales and revenue, partly due to growth in its e-commerce business [3][4] Technology Sector Performance - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Nvidia down 2.97%, Microsoft down 1.60%, Apple down 0.86%, Google down 1.15%, Amazon down 2.49%, Meta down 0.19%, Tesla down 2.21%, Broadcom down 2.14%, and Oracle down 6.58% [5] - Chinese stocks also fell, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 3.26%, Alibaba down 3.53%, JD.com down 1.68%, Pinduoduo down 4.31%, NIO down 6.09%, Xpeng down 5.10%, Li Auto down 2.32%, Bilibili down 4.54%, Baidu down 4.36%, NetEase up 0.40%, Tencent Music down 5.61%, and Pony.ai down 4.86% [5] Company News - Google launched a new image generation and editing model called NANO BANANA PRO, which is designed to produce clearer images and support more precise and readable text in multiple languages [5] - SoftBank plans to invest up to $3 billion to retrofit an electric vehicle factory in Lordstown, Ohio, to produce equipment for OpenAI's upcoming data center, making SoftBank one of OpenAI's largest investors [6] - Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet, announced the expansion of its autonomous ride-hailing service to Minneapolis, Tampa, and New Orleans [7] - Verizon announced it will lay off over 13,000 employees as part of a plan to streamline operations and reduce external labor costs, indicating that every department will undergo some level of change [8]

美东时间周四，美股市场上演过山车式行情，尽管英伟达强劲财报一度显著提振了市场情绪，纳指一度 涨超2%，但随着估值担忧卷土重来，以及降息预期进一步受挫，三大指数悉数收跌。 其中，道指跌0.84%，纳指跌2.15%，标普跌1.55%。微软跌超1%，谷歌跌超1%，亚马逊跌超2%，特斯 拉跌超2%，沃尔玛涨超6%，甲骨文跌超6%。 英伟达盘中一度上涨5%，但最终收跌3%。虽然英伟达CEO黄仁勋强调Blackwell芯片的需求"爆棚"，并 否认AI泡沫的存在，但担忧情绪仍占上风。 热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌3.26%。阿里跌超3%，拼多多跌超4%，携程跌超3%， 京东跌超1%，百度跌超4%，腾讯音乐跌超5%，小鹏跌超4%，理想跌超2%，蔚来跌超6%，满帮跌超 7%，哔哩哔哩跌超4%。 01 非农数据 "爆冷" 大增，降息预期直接 "腰斩" 就在市场为科技股涨跌纠结时，美国劳工统计局公布的 9 月非农数据给了市场一记 "重锤"。 数据显示，美国 9 月非农就业意外大增 11.9 万人，远远超出市场预估的 5.2 万；9 月失业率为 4.4%， 略高于预估的 4.3%。 报告发布后，美国股指期货涨幅扩大，美 ...

热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌3.26%。阿里跌超3%，拼多多跌超4%，携程跌超 3%，京东跌超1%，百度跌超4%，腾讯音乐跌超5%，小鹏跌超4%，理想跌超2%，蔚来跌超 6%，满帮跌超7%，哔哩哔哩跌超4%。 01 非农数据 "爆冷" 大增，降息预期直接 "腰斩" 就在市场为科技股涨跌纠结时，美国劳工统计局公布的 9 月非农数据给了市场一记 "重锤"。 美东时间周四，美股市场上演过山车式行情，尽管英伟达强劲财报一度显著提振了市场情绪，纳指 一度涨超2%，但随着估值担忧卷土重来，以及降息预期进一步受挫，三大指数悉数收跌。 其中，道指跌0.84%，纳指跌2.15%，标普跌1.55%。微软跌超1%，谷歌跌超1%，亚马逊跌超 2%，特斯拉跌超2%，沃尔玛涨超6%，甲骨文跌超6%。 英伟达盘中一度上涨5%，但最终收跌3%。虽然英伟达CEO黄仁勋强调Blackwell芯片的需求"爆 棚"，并否认AI泡沫的存在，但担忧情绪仍占上风。 他甚至认为，在美联储 9 月降息后，2025 年只需再降息一次，这番言论更是给降息预期浇了一盆 冷水。 02 达利欧直言 AI 有泡沫，但 "刺破点" 未到不用急着逃 一边是降息 ...

Group 1 - The UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) has decreased from 3.8% in September to 3.6% in October, marking the first decline since May [1] - The slowdown in gas and electricity price increases is identified as a key factor contributing to the overall decline in inflation [1] - Core inflation, excluding food and energy, has slightly decreased from 3.5% to 3.4%, while the service price inflation rate has also dropped from 4.7% to 4.5% [1] Group 2 - The recent inflation data increases the likelihood of the Bank of England implementing a rate cut in December, with market expectations rising following the decline in inflation [1] - Economic growth is slowing, and the conditions for a rate cut are deemed favorable, although the inflation rate remains significantly above the Bank's target of 2% [2] - The UK Chancellor emphasized the importance of maintaining fiscal prudence in the upcoming budget to avoid exacerbating inflation and to alleviate the cost of living pressures [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the uncertainty of interest rate cuts is further strengthened. If the employment demand remains weak, it may significantly increase the expectation of interest rate cuts, which is beneficial to the trend of gold and silver. However, the November non - farm payrolls report will be released after the next FOMC meeting [3]. - In the long - term, the US debt pressure continues to intensify, investors' confidence in the US dollar tends to weaken. Gold, as the preferred asset for hedging against US dollar credit, is still attractive. Coupled with the continuous intervention of central banks buying gold at low prices, the central price of gold may be further raised [3]. - Technically, the upward momentum of gold and silver prices has strengthened. The London gold and silver prices have key supports at $4030 and $50 respectively. The focus range for the Shanghai Gold 2602 contract is 900 - 950 yuan/gram; the focus range for the Shanghai Silver 2602 contract is 11700 - 12300 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 932.56 yuan/gram, down 4.44 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 12050 yuan/kilogram, down 98 yuan [3]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold were 73837 lots, down 9001 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver were 349596 lots, up 9390 lots [3]. - The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract were 105859 lots, up 584 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract were 103982 lots, up 1047 lots [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 0 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 0 kilograms, unchanged [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 932 yuan/gram, up 0.6 yuan; the spot price of silver on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 12114 yuan/kilogram, up 146 yuan [3]. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 3.46 yuan/gram, up 2.14 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 64 yuan/kilogram, up 244 yuan [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 1043.72 tons, up 2.29 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15226.88 tons, up 8.46 tons [3]. - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 252908 contracts, down 13841 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC were 49739 contracts, down 2537 contracts [3]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [3]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 22.21%, up 0.23%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 28.58%, down 3.13% [3]. 3.4 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 26.26%, up 0.81%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 26.26%, up 0.82% [3]. 3.5 Industry News - The minutes of the Fed's October policy meeting showed that there was a serious divide among Fed policymakers when cutting interest rates last month. Many officials thought it might be appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of 2025, while some officials pointed out that another rate cut in December might be appropriate if the economy performed as expected [3]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December was 32.7% (yesterday's probability was 48.9%), and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 67.3%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by January next year was 49.9%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 33.8%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively was 16.3% [3]. - The World Platinum Investment Council predicted that the platinum market would experience a significant shortage for the third consecutive year this year, with a shortage of 22 tons, 5 tons lower than previously predicted. The total supply of platinum in 2025 was expected to decline by 2% year - on - year to 222 tons, the lowest level in five years; the total demand was expected to be 243 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13 tons [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Market sentiment is cautious, with copper prices oscillating. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the copper price bottom. The main contract is expected to range between 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton. Follow demand changes and overseas interest - rate cut expectations [1]. Zinc - The fundamentals offer limited support for continuous upward movement of SHFE zinc, which is likely to oscillate in the short term. The main contract is expected to range between 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton. Look out for demand improvement and non - recessionary interest - rate cut expectations [3]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains in a supply - demand surplus, with prices likely to remain weak. The main contract is expected to range between 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum is caught between macro - level positives and weak fundamentals, with the medium - term supply expected to be tight [4]. Tin - Tin ore supply is tight, and demand shows regional differences. With positive semiconductor sentiment, long positions can be held. Monitor macro changes and Myanmar's supply recovery [6]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term ADC12 price will stay firm, supported by costs. The main contract is expected to range between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Track scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement, and inventory changes [9]. Nickel - The nickel market faces macro pressure, and the fundamental improvement is limited. The medium - term supply is abundant. The main contract is expected to range between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro expectations and Indonesian policies [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market has insufficient macro - level drivers and weak demand. The supply pressure remains. The main contract is expected to range between 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton. Monitor steel - mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market shows strong short - term momentum. The market may continue to be strong, followed by wide - range oscillations. Be cautious when chasing long positions at current levels [15]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate in a high - level range. Futures may decline. Monitor inventory pressure, spot support, and demand orders [16]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, mainly between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Consider short - selling or hedging at high prices [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 86,715 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.13%. The refined - scrap spread increased by 8.98% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. In September, imports were 0.3343 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50% [1]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,420 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.45% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, refined zinc production was 0.6172 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. In September, imports were 0.0227 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% [3]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.42%. Alumina prices in different regions were mostly stable [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, alumina production was 7.7853 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7421 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [4]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price rose to 291,500 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.73% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In September, tin ore imports were 8,714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. In October, SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53.09% [6]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained at 21,450 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread in different regions decreased [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.645 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%. The regenerated aluminum alloy开工率 decreased [9]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 117,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.56%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price decreased to 897 yuan/nickel point [11]. - **Fundamentals**: China's refined nickel production in October was 35,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. Imports in September were 38,164 tons, a month - on - month increase of 124.36% [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained at 12,700 yuan/ton. The raw material prices such as nickel ore and chromium iron decreased [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 1.8217 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. Indonesia's production was 0.4235 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price rose to 88,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.72%. The lithium ore price also increased [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%. Demand was 126,961 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.70% [15]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: Polysilicon spot prices were stable, while futures prices rose to 54,625 yuan/ton. The spread between contracts increased [16]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly polysilicon production was 26,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.74%. Monthly production was 134,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08% [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: Industrial silicon spot prices were unchanged, while futures prices rose to 9,390 yuan/ton. The spread between contracts changed [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, national industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%. The national开工率 was 68.12%, a month - on - month increase of 9.98% [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various financial and commodity markets, including financial derivatives (such as stock index futures, treasury bond futures), precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. It provides market conditions, news, and operation suggestions for each sector, with most sectors expected to experience fluctuating trends in the short - term [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share major indices showed mixed trends with reduced trading volume. The pro - cyclical sectors supported the market, while TMT sectors declined. The four major stock index futures contracts had different price movements, and the basis spreads fluctuated narrowly. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and consider bearish option bull spreads in case of a significant decline [2][3][4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds mostly rose. The bond market is expected to be in a narrow - range fluctuation in the short - term, and a range - bound operation strategy is recommended [5][6] Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The Fed's October meeting minutes dampened the expectation of a December interest - rate cut, and the risk of Japanese government bond sales affected the precious metals market. Gold and silver prices first rose and then fell. In the long - term, precious metals may enter a bull market, but in the short - term, market volatility may increase. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider a double - selling strategy for gold out - of - the - money options [7][9] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index both declined. The futures market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term [12] Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and copper prices are fluctuating. The supply of copper ore is tight, and the downstream demand has strong resilience. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate in the range of 85500 - 87500 [13][15][17] - **Alumina**: The alumina market has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the price is expected to continue to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to focus on the production reduction of high - cost enterprises [17][18][19] - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices are adjusting downward after a previous rise. The market shows a pattern of strong macro - drive and weak fundamental support. It is recommended to focus on downstream start - up changes and inventory reduction [20][22] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The casting aluminum alloy market follows the adjustment of aluminum prices. The cost is strongly supported by the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The short - term price is expected to be relatively strong [23][24] - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc is expected to decrease, and the spot trading has improved. The short - term zinc price is expected to fluctuate, and the export of zinc may boost the domestic price [25][27][28] - **Tin**: The supply of tin is tight, and the guidance of NVIDIA's quarterly report exceeded expectations, so the tin price is running strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips [28][29][32] - **Nickel**: The nickel market is under macro - pressure, and the fundamental improvement is insufficient. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile [32][33][34] - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market has weak policy and macro - drive, and the supply - demand structure has not improved significantly. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile [35][37][38] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market is driven by strong capital sentiment, and the price is rising. The short - term price is expected to be strong, but there may be high - volatility intraday market conditions later [39][41][42] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon market maintains a pattern of both supply and demand decline, and each link has an expectation of inventory accumulation. The futures price is rising, and it is recommended to pay attention to the spot price support [43][44] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon market has a pattern of both supply and demand decline, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. The futures price is rising, and it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices or use hedging strategies [44][47] Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market has a low demand expectation, and the difference between hot - rolled and rebar spreads is expanding. The short - term price is expected to be weak, and it is not recommended to go long [47][48][50] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is fluctuating. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The short - term price is expected to be in a high - level fluctuation, and it is recommended to wait and see [53][54][55] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal market is showing a weak decline. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand for restocking is weakening. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [56][60] - **Coke**: The coke market continues to decline. The fourth - round price increase has been fully implemented, but the supply and demand are under pressure. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [61][66][67] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and the cost side lacks substantial benefits. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to pay attention to the dynamics of state - reserved soybeans [68][70]