供需关系
Search documents
广发期货《农产品》日报-20250514
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 11:10
| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 2025年5月14日 | | | 王浅辉 | Z0019938 | | | 员拥 | | | | | | 5月13日 | | | 5月12日 | 张庆 | 涨跌幅 | | 8320 | 现价 江苏一级 | | 8270 | 50 | 0.60% | | Y2509 | 期价 | 7952 | 7970 | -18 | -0.23% | | Y2509 | 墓差 | 368 | 300 | ୧୫ | 22.67% | | 09+400 | 现货墓差报价 江苏5月 | | 09+390 | 10 | - | | 6370 | 仓車 | | 6370 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | 5月13日 | | | 5月12日 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | | 8670 | 现价 广东24度 | | 8600 | 70 | 0.81% | | P2509 | 期价 | 8324 | 8450 | -126 | - ...
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250514
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 11:03
| 财产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月14日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张庆 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3220 | 3220 | O | 118 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3210 | 3210 | 0 | 108 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3340 | 3310 | 30 | 238 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3033 | 3036 | -3 | 187 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3079 | 3082 | -3 | 141 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3102 | 3103 | -1 | 118 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3260 | 3280 | -20 | 32 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3210 | 3200 | 10 | -18 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | ...
《农产品》日报-20250514
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 05:50
| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 2025年5月14日 | | | 王浅辉 | Z0019938 | | | 员拥 | | | | | | 5月13日 | | | 5月12日 | 张庆 | 涨跌幅 | | 8320 | 现价 江苏一级 | | 8270 | 50 | 0.60% | | Y2509 | 期价 | 7952 | 7970 | -18 | -0.23% | | Y2509 | 墓差 | 368 | 300 | ୧୫ | 22.67% | | 09+400 | 现货墓差报价 江苏5月 | | 09+390 | 10 | - | | 6370 | 仓車 | | 6370 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | 5月13日 | | | 5月12日 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | | 8670 | 现价 广东24度 | | 8600 | 70 | 0.81% | | P2509 | 期价 | 8324 | 8450 | -126 | - ...
工业硅期货早报-20250513
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 14:47
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看,上周工业硅供应量为6.8万吨,环比有所减少1.44%。 需求端来看,上周工业硅需求为6.7万吨,环比增长19.64%.需求有所抬升.多晶硅库存为25.7万 吨,处于低位,硅片亏损,电池片亏损,组件盈利;有机硅库存为105000吨,处于低位,有机 硅生产利润为-301元/吨,处于亏损状态,其综合开工率为60.11%,环比持平,低于历史同期平 均水平;铝合金锭库存为1.47万吨,处于低位,进口亏损为702元/吨,A356铝送至无锡运费和 利润为516.79元/吨,再生铝开工率为55%,环比增加4.76%,处于低位。 成本端来看,新疆地区样本通氧553生产亏损为3555元/吨,枯水期成本支撑有所上升。 2、基差: 05月12日,华东不通氧现货价9000元/吨,06合约基差为680元/吨,现货升水期货。 偏多。 3、库存: 社会库存为59.6万吨,环比减少1.16%,样本企业库存为264900吨,环比增加1.44%,主要港口库 存为13.3万吨,环比减少2.20%。 偏空。 4 ...
《有色》日报-20250513
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 07:02
Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports Core Views Tin Industry - The macro sentiment may drive the tin price to rebound, but considering the supply recovery and weak demand, it is advisable to try short - selling in the range of 265,000 - 270,000, and focus on the supply recovery rhythm [1] Copper Industry - The copper market presents a combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", with short - term prices likely to fluctuate. Pay attention to the continuation of the strong reality after May, the tariff negotiation rhythm, and the resistance level of 77,500 - 78,500 [2] Aluminum Industry - The alumina market has mixed factors and is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The aluminum price is supported by inventory reduction, tariff easing, and policy expectations, but is pressured by weakening demand and cost, and is expected to be weak, with the support level at 18,000 - 18,500 [4] Zinc Industry - Short - term zinc prices may be supported by tariff easing. In the future, if tariffs lead to insufficient consumption, the price may decline; otherwise, it may maintain a high - level shock. In the long - term, a short - selling strategy is recommended, with the reference range of 21,500 - 23,500 [6] Lithium Industry - Tariff news has limited impact on lithium. The supply - demand contradiction is clear, and the support is weakening. The short - term price may stabilize, but the upward space is limited. A short - selling strategy is recommended, with the reference range of 62,000 - 66,000 [9] Nickel Industry - The macro sentiment improves, and the nickel price has cost support, but the medium - term supply is loose. The price is expected to fluctuate, with the reference range of 122,000 - 128,000 [11] Stainless Steel Industry - The stainless steel market has some price support from the ore end, but the short - term supply - demand contradiction expands. The price is expected to fluctuate, with the reference range of 12,600 - 13,200 [14] Summary by Directory Tin Industry Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price rose to 262,800, up 1.23%; LME 0 - 3 spread rose 72.79% [1] Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit and Loss - Import loss decreased by 74.84% to - 2,373.05 yuan/ton [1] Monthly Spread - 2506 - 2507 spread rose 433.33% to 160 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - March tin ore imports decreased by 4.83%, while SMM refined tin production increased by 8.75% [1] Inventory Changes - SHEF inventory decreased by 2.13%, while social inventory increased by 3.66% [1] Copper Industry Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose 0.09% to 78,275 yuan/ton; import loss was - 570 yuan/ton [2] Monthly Spread - 2505 - 2506 spread decreased by 180 yuan/ton to 330 yuan/ton [2] Fundamental Data - April electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32%, and March imports increased by 15.24% [2] Inventory Changes - SHFE inventory decreased by 9.63% to 8.07 million tons [2] Aluminum Industry Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose 1.02% to 19,810 yuan/ton; 2505 - 2506 spread decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Data - April alumina production decreased by 6.17%, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.91% [4] Inventory Changes - Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 5.50% to 60.1 million tons [4] Zinc Industry Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.22% to 22,720 yuan/ton; 2505 - 2506 spread decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 235 yuan/ton [6] Fundamental Data - April refined zinc production increased by 0.31%, and March imports increased by 9.47% [6] Inventory Changes - Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 1.66% to 8.55 million tons [6] Lithium Industry Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1.00% to 64,600 yuan/ton; 2505 - 2506 spread rose 220 yuan/ton to 160 yuan/ton [9] Fundamental Data - April lithium carbonate production decreased by 6.65%, and demand increased by 3.02% [9] Inventory Changes - Last week, the overall inventory decreased slightly, mainly due to the reduction in downstream inventory [9] Nickel Industry Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose 1.92% to 127,225 yuan/ton; LME 0 - 3 spread decreased by 6.35% to - 183 [11] Fundamental Data - April refined nickel production increased by 6.08%, and imports decreased by 68.84% [11] Inventory Changes - SHFE inventory decreased by 3.08% to 28,675 [11] Stainless Steel Industry Price and Basis - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price rose 0.77% to 13,150 yuan/ton; 2506 - 2507 spread remained unchanged at - 40 yuan/ton [14] Fundamental Data - April 300 - series stainless steel production in China increased by 11.37%, and exports increased by 70.98% [14] Inventory Changes - 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan increased by 1.94% to 56 million tons [14]
饲料养殖产业日报-20250513
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 03:32
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of pigs is increasing and being postponed, leading to downward pressure on pig prices, but the futures market has already factored in the weak expectations, resulting in limited decline. Egg prices are expected to be supported in the short - term but face long - term supply pressure. The short - term outlook for palm oil is weak, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil are expected to be stronger than palm oil in the short - term. In the long - term, the overall trend of oils is to decline in the second quarter and potentially rebound in the third quarter. The short - term price of soybean meal is expected to be weak, with a long - term upward trend. Corn prices are expected to be stable with an upward bias in the long - term, but the upside is limited by substitutes [1][2][7]. 3. Summary by Product Pigs - On May 13, the spot prices in different regions were stable. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the supply will increase later. In the long - term, the supply from April to September 2024 is increasing, and there is a risk of price decline. The strategy is to go short on rebounds. The pressure and support levels for 07 and 09 contracts are provided [1]. Eggs - On May 13, egg prices in some regions increased. Short - term price support may come from pre - holiday demand, but long - term supply pressure is significant. The strategy is to short on rebounds for the 06 contract and take a bearish view on the 08 and 09 contracts [2]. Oils - **Palm oil**: The production increase in Malaysia is greater than the export increase, and inventory is expected to accumulate. The 07 contract is expected to be weak in the short - term. In China, the inventory is decreasing but is expected to rise from May to June [4]. - **Soybean oil**: The USDA report is positive, and the reduction of tariffs between China and the US is also positive, but the upside of US soybeans is limited. In China, the inventory is expected to increase due to large imports from May to July [5]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The supply in Canada is tightening, and the ICE rapeseed is expected to rebound. In China, the inventory is high, but if the supply tightens, the inventory may gradually decrease [6]. Soybean Meal - The price of US soybeans rebounded on May 12. In the short - term, the domestic price is expected to fall due to increased supply, but in the long - term, it may be strong due to cost and weather factors. The strategy is to go short in the short - term and long in the long - term for the 09 contract [8]. Corn - On May 12, the price in some regions increased, while in others it decreased. In the short - term, the price is supported by reduced supply from farmers, but the upside is limited by demand. In the long - term, the price may rise but is restricted by substitutes. The strategy is to go long at the lower end of the 07 contract range [9]. 4. Today's Futures Market Overview - Provides the closing prices, price changes of various futures and spot products on May 12, including CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, CBOT corn, etc. [10]
长江期货棉纺策略日报-20250513
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 03:32
棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花:震荡偏强 宏观方面,国内降息降准等一揽子金融政策落地,叠加中美经贸高层会 谈关税协商取得一定成果,政策面释放积极信号,基本面来看,本年度 国内商业库存去库加速,消费量维持高位或导致本年度后期供需偏紧, 短期棉价受多方利好背景下,短中期棉价维持震荡偏强运行。巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束,2024 年巴西棉总产达到 370 万吨,2025 年预计 总产达到 395 万吨,对外棉有一定压力。国内新疆新棉播种已经结束, 并未出现异常天气,今年新疆丰产概率增大,以及国内一二季度抢出口, 消费前置,远期合约有压力。美棉已经进入播种期,后续 7、8 月美国 天气值得关注,6 月美国 6.5 万亿美元国债到期,中美贸易谈判显得尤 为重要,若向好的形势发展,美国通胀缓和、国内通缩也得到缓和,美 联储降息概率上升,更加有利于经济发展,所以未来还是要看宏观形势 的发展,逐步认证,从整体上,25、26 年度预期全球依然是高产年份, 国内短中期棉花商业库存偏紧有结构性矛盾,短中期看涨,但远期丰产, 限制了棉花上涨的幅度。(数据来源:中国棉花信息网 TTEB) ◆ PTA:震荡偏强 现货方面:PT ...
关税政策转机,市场情绪转好
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 03:00
关税政策转机,市场情绪转好 钢材:关税政策转机,市场情绪转好 市场分析 昨日,螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3082元/吨,热卷主力合约收于3220元/吨。现货方面,根据昨日钢银数据显示,全 国库存为814.09万吨,环比上周减少1.21%。其中,钢材库存环比减少4.08%,热卷环比增加3.23%。昨日钢材现货 成交整体一般偏好,市场整体情绪好转,投机成交有所恢复。 综合来看:热卷:目前板材基本维持高产量,高消费,低库存,尤其在国内低价优势下,出口韧性较强。螺纹: 近期建材产销存数据表现不佳,由于目前短流程持续亏损,建材产量受到边际抑制,建材消费仍处于传统旺季, 整体库存保持低位,后期去库空间有限。昨日成材受关税政策缓和影响,市场情绪高涨,价格上涨。 策略 单边:震荡,关注情绪改善下的贴水修复 黑色建材日报 | 2025-05-13 跨期:无 跨品种:无 期现:无 期权:无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿:中美谈判超预期,铁矿石大幅上涨 市场分析 昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格大幅上涨。截至收盘,铁矿石主力2509合约收于718.5/吨,涨幅3.16%。现货方面,主流 品种价格 ...
银河期货每日早盘观察-20250512
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 06:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market supply and demand is generally loose, and the new US soybean crop is expected to face pressure. The South American market is in the peak supply period, and prices are expected to remain under pressure. In the domestic market, the arrival volume of soybeans is expected to increase, and the supply situation is expected to improve, but there is still some pressure [2][3]. - The raw sugar is affected by the expected high - yield in Brazil and shows a weak trend, but is expected to fluctuate due to the support of buying orders below. The domestic sugar market has a higher sales - to - production ratio and low inventory, driving Zhengzhou sugar to be stronger than raw sugar. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8][11]. - The macro - factors will still have a significant impact on the oil market. In the short term, the Malaysian palm oil is expected to accumulate inventory significantly in April and continue to increase production and accumulate inventory later. The domestic soybean oil inventory will start to accumulate, and the basis may weaken. The domestic rapeseed oil supply exceeds demand, and the decline space may be limited [17][20]. - The US corn is sowing faster and is in a bottom - shock state. The domestic corn supply is relatively short, and the spot price is still strong, but the increase space may be limited. The futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [28][29]. - The recent enthusiasm for hog slaughter is average, but the supply pressure is still reflected due to the increase in slaughter weight. The futures market is expected to face pressure [35]. - The peanut spot trading volume is still small, and the downstream consumption is weak. However, the large - scale oil mills' increased purchases boost the market, and the new - season peanuts in October still have room for rebound [39][43]. - The overall supply of eggs is expected to be sufficient, and the egg price has shown signs of stability recently. It is recommended to close out the previous short positions and wait and see [49][51]. - The apple cold - storage inventory is at a low level this year, and the supply is likely to be tight before the new fruit is on the market. The demand is okay, and the spot price is strong. The apple price is expected to continue to fluctuate slightly stronger [54][58]. - The short - term supply of cotton is sufficient, and the demand is average. The market has entered the off - season. Considering the uncertainty of global trade policies, especially the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations, it is recommended to wait and see [63][66]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **外盘情况**:CBOT大豆指数持平于1043.75美分/蒲式耳,CBOT豆粕指数下跌0.67%至297.4美元/短吨[2] - **相关资讯**:预计美国2025/26年度大豆期末库存为3.62亿蒲式耳,产量料为43.38亿蒲式耳;中国4月大豆进口608.1万吨;国际豆粕出口主要供应国出口量转降;截至5月9日当周,油厂大豆实际压榨量184.6万吨,开机率51.89%,大豆库存较上周增加3.3%,同比增加13.28%,豆粕库存较上周增加9.76%,同比减少84.36%[2] - **逻辑分析**:国际市场供需偏宽松,美豆新作有压力,南美处于供应高峰期价格承压;国内大豆到港量增加,油厂开机率恢复,供应好转但仍有压力[3] - **交易策略**:单边偏空思路为主;套利观望;期权卖出宽跨式策略[6] Sugar - **外盘情况**:昨日ICE美糖主力合约上涨0.32(1.83%)至17.82美分/磅[7] - **重要资讯**:截至2025年4月底,本制糖期全国产糖1110.72万吨,同比增加11.59%,销售食糖724.46万吨,同比增加26.07%,销糖率65.22%;印度2025 - 26年度糖产量预计达3500万吨,增长26%;现货方面,部分制糖集团和加工厂报价有调整,后半段成交尚可[8][9][10] - **逻辑分析**:原糖受巴西丰产预期影响偏弱,预计震荡运行;国内产销比高、库存低带动郑糖强于原糖,预计短期震荡运行,关注广西天气[11] - **交易策略**:单边震荡运行,波段操作;套利观望;期权卖出宽跨式期权[12][13][14] Oilseeds and Oils - **外盘情况**:隔夜CBOT美豆油主力价格变动0.25%至48.64美分/磅;BMD马棕油主力价格变动0.37%至3815林吉特/吨,周一马盘休市[16] - **相关资讯**:巴西2024/25年度大豆作物商业化销售达预期产量的57%,较去年同期和历史均值延迟;阿根廷2024/25年度大豆收割率为45%,落后去年同期;加拿大油菜籽出口量增加,库存为120.1万吨;5月9日,油脂总成交环比增加63%[17][18][19] - **逻辑分析**:中美谈判达成共识,宏观因素影响盘面;4月马棕累库明显,后期继续增产累库,中国和印度买船积极性增加;巴西大豆到港,国内油厂压榨量增加,豆油库存累库,基差或走弱;国内菜油供大于求,盘面受国际关系影响反复,下跌空间有限[20] - **交易策略**:单边预计短期油脂震荡运行,豆油和菜油有利多支撑,棕榈油基本面转弱,可轻仓试多博反弹或反弹后逢高空;套利YP 09可部分止盈部分持有;期权观望[21][22][23] Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**:CBOT玉米期货外盘反弹,主力合约反弹0.2%,收盘为450.5美分/蒲[27] - **重要资讯**:截至5月9日当周,CBOT玉米期货延续下跌,美国玉米播种顺利,巴西二季玉米丰产预期压制价格;美国玉米主产州未来6 - 10日部分地区气温低于正常、降水高于正常;全国饲料企业平均库存增加;5月12日北港收购价稳定,华北产区周末回调[28] - **逻辑分析**:美玉米播种加快,底部震荡;国内玉米供应少,东北玉米上涨,港口价格稳定,抛储和糙米拍卖传闻影响下,华北玉米现货回落,小麦价格上涨,玉米现货仍偏强,中长期上涨空间有限,07玉米高位震荡,期现价差缩小[29] - **持仓建议**:单边外盘07玉米450美分/蒲附近有支撑,07玉米等待回调,观望为主;套利玉米和淀粉套利震荡操作,逢低做扩;期权有现货的可考虑逢高累沽策略[32][33] Hogs - **相关资讯**:生猪价格整体震荡,部分地区持平或有小幅度涨跌;仔猪价格下跌,母猪价格持平;农产品批发价格指数和猪肉平均价格下降[35] - **逻辑分析**:近期生猪出栏积极性一般,但出栏体重增加使供应压力体现,大小猪价差回落或使出栏增加,关注现货跌价情况,期货预计有压力[35] - **交易策略**:单边偏空思路为主;套利LH79反套;期权卖出宽跨式策略[38] Peanuts - **重要资讯**:各地花生通货米有报价区间;部分油厂到货及成交价格情况;花生油报价偏强,有议价空间;花生粕走货少;国内花生油样本企业花生库存减少,花生油库存增加[39][40] - **逻辑分析**:花生现货成交少,新季花生价格稳定,进口花生价格稳定、进口量大幅减少,花生油厂收购价格稳定,下游消费弱;豆粕现货回落,花生粕价格稳定,油厂有利润,大型油厂收购量增加;市场预计新季种植面积增加,河南等地干旱易炒作天气,10花生有反弹空间[41][43] - **持仓建议**:单边10花生轻仓逢低短多;套利观望;期权观望[44][45][46] Eggs - **重要资讯**:主产区和主销区均价下跌后全国主流价格多数上涨;4月份全国在产蛋鸡存栏量增加,样本企业蛋鸡苗月度出苗量增加;5月9日一周全国主产区蛋鸡淘鸡出栏量增加;5月1日当周全国代表销区鸡蛋销量减少,生产和流通环节库存增加;鸡蛋盈利减少,蛋鸡养殖预期利润上涨[48][49][50] - **交易逻辑**:鸡蛋整体供应充足,在产存栏量高,蛋价跌至当前位置后有稳定迹象,建议前期空单获利平仓观望[51] - **交易策略**:单边空单可考虑获利平仓;套利多08空09;期权观望[52] Apples - **重要资讯**:截至2025年4月16日,全国主产区苹果冷库库存量减少,去库同比加快;2024 - 2025年苹果进出口量有变化;冷库苹果剩余量低于往年同期,山东产地冷库惜售,出货速度后期放缓,陕西产区价格稳定,出货情况尚可但可供交易货量不大;山东和陕西产区现货价格有变动,栖霞存储商利润增加[54][55][56] - **交易逻辑**:今年苹果冷库库存处于低位,新果上市前供应大概率偏紧,需求端走货尚可,现货价格偏强,4月份西部产区天气影响部分产区坐果,预计苹果走势震荡略偏强[58] - **交易策略**:单边AP10短期逢低建仓多单;套利建议先观望;期权建议先观望[59][60][61] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**:昨日ICE美棉主力合约下跌0.01(0.01%)至66.72美分/磅[62] - **重要资讯**:中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展,将建立磋商机制;美棉主产区和德州干旱指数下行;CFTC发布ICE棉花期货合约ON - CALL数据,卖方未点价合约有变动[63][64][65] - **交易逻辑**:基本面棉花短期供应充足,需求一般,进入需求淡季,纱线和坯布库存有累库迹象;全球经济和贸易政策不确定性大,关注中美关税谈判后续动态,建议观望[66] - **交易策略**:单边预计未来美棉走势大概率震荡略偏强,郑棉近期宏观不确定性大,建议观望;套利空09多01;期权观望[67][68][69]
地缘局势升级引发油价反弹,PX、PTA供需、成本共振上行
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 11:52
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PX and PTA prices rebounded after a decline. Short - term geopolitical tensions led to an oil price rebound, strengthening cost support. With reduced supply pressure and increased polyester demand, there is an upward repair momentum for short - term valuations [3]. - The price of MEG maintained a volatile pattern. Supply increased slightly, demand from polyester and printing and dyeing industries rose, import arrivals decreased significantly, but the visible inventory did not decline, so the overall valuation remained volatile [4]. - PF and PR prices followed the cost increase. Production and operating rates of domestic polyester staple fiber and polyester bottle - chips increased, but demand did not improve significantly, and the spot trading atmosphere was weak. Short - term attention should be paid to cost changes [5]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 PX & PTA - **PX**: Cost - end support strengthened. Geopolitical tensions caused a short - term oil price rebound, while the long - term supply of crude oil remained loose. The domestic PX plant operating rate was 73% (down 1.4% month - on - month), and the Asian operating rate was 67.9% (down 3.3% month - on - month) [3]. - **PTA**: The processing fee declined, and the operating rate was around 75.6% (down 7.6%). Some devices were adjusted, with some in maintenance and others restarting. Factory inventory and warehouse receipts decreased, and polyester operating rates remained stable while weaving and printing and dyeing operating rates recovered [3][43]. 3.2 MEG - The price of MEG maintained a volatile pattern. As of May 8, the overall operating load in mainland China was 68.99% (up 0.56%), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) was 66.75% (up 4.54%). The operating rates of polyester and printing and dyeing industries increased slightly. The planned arrival at the main port from May 6 - 11 was about 5.9 million tons, a significant decrease in imports. As of May 6, the port inventory in the East China main port area was about 79 million tons (down 1 million tons), and the visible inventory did not decline [4]. 3.3 PF & PR - The prices of PF and PR followed the cost increase. The domestic polyester staple fiber production this week was expected to be around 166,700 tons, and the industry operating rate increased slightly to around 83.93%. The weekly production of polyester bottle - chips was about 346,558 tons, an increase of 2,762 tons from last week, and the industry operating rate was 87.57%, up 0.70%. The weekly inventory of staple fiber factories was 343,600 tons (up 3.59% month - on - month), and the weekly inventory of bottle - chip factories was 231,300 tons (up 2.17% month - on - month) [5].