Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For PTA, after the near - end TA maintenance, the start - up rate decreased, polyester start - up increased, inventory slightly decreased, basis strengthened again, and spot processing fees improved. In the future, TA inventory start - up will gradually return, and it will enter the inventory accumulation stage. The monthly spread driver may fluctuate greatly between PX inventory depletion and polyester benefit compression [1]. - For MEG, the near - end domestic maintenance continued to resume, the start - up rate continued to rise, Iranian devices stopped intensively, port inventory decreased slightly, and the basis weakened. In the future, the domestic supply will return, and the inventory accumulation amplitude is expected to be limited. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern [7]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up rate increased, production and sales remained stable, inventory slightly accumulated. The demand side was weak, but exports maintained a high growth rate. There are also production reduction plans in the future, and the processing fee is expected to remain weak [7]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory remained stable, the price of Thai cup rubber rebounded, and rainfall affected rubber tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]. - For styrene, the prices of related products changed, and the domestic profits of some products also changed. A comprehensive analysis of these data is needed for investment decisions [7]. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Spread Changes**: From June 20 to June 26, 2025, crude oil remained at 67.7, PTA inner - disk spot price decreased from 5275 to 5020, PTA processing difference decreased from 369 to 375, and polyester gross profit increased from - 34 to 256. The basis of daily average transaction was 2509(+254) [1]. - **Device Changes**: Yisheng New Materials with a capacity of 3.6 million tons reduced its load [1]. - **Market Situation**: After the near - end TA maintenance, the start - up rate decreased, polyester start - up increased, inventory slightly decreased, basis strengthened again, and spot processing fees improved. PX domestic start - up remained stable, overseas Middle - East devices had unexpected shutdowns, PXN and its structure strengthened again [1]. - **Future Outlook**: TA inventory start - up will gradually return, and it will enter the inventory accumulation stage. The monthly spread driver may fluctuate greatly between PX inventory depletion and polyester benefit compression [1]. MEG - **Price and Profit Changes**: From June 20 to June 26, 2025, Northeast Asia ethylene remained at 850, MEG inner - disk price decreased from 4594 to 4379, and MEG coal - made profit decreased from 681 to 459. The basis of spot transaction was around 09(+72) [7]. - **Device Changes**: Zhejiang Petrochemical's 800,000 - ton device was under maintenance [7]. - **Market Situation**: The near - end domestic maintenance continued to resume, the start - up rate continued to rise, Iranian devices stopped intensively, port inventory decreased slightly, downstream stocking levels increased slightly, the basis weakened, and coal - made benefits continued to expand [7]. - **Future Outlook**: The domestic supply will return, and the inventory accumulation amplitude is expected to be limited. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [7]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Profit Changes**: From June 20 to June 26, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 6995 to 6855, and the short - fiber profit increased from - 70 to 79 [7]. - **Device Changes**: Not provided - **Market Situation**: Fujian Jinlun restarted, the start - up rate increased to 95.1%, production and sales remained stable, inventory slightly accumulated. The demand side was weak, but exports maintained a high growth rate [7]. - **Future Outlook**: There are also production reduction plans in the future, and the processing fee is expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to the implementation of industry production reduction [7]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From June 20 to June 26, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased from 1690 to 1700, and the price of Shanghai full - latex increased from 13500 to 13640 [7]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory remained stable, the price of Thai cup rubber rebounded, and rainfall affected rubber tapping [7]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [7]. Styrene - **Price and Profit Changes**: From June 20 to June 26, 2025, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained at 850, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) remained at 748, and the domestic profit of styrene decreased from 140 to 165 [7]. - **Market Situation**: The prices of related products changed, and the domestic profits of some products also changed [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Reports LLDPE and PP - PP has short - term maintenance returns and new production is progressing smoothly, with output at a year - on - year high. After the decline of the PE market, the basis strengthens, and arbitrageurs have good sales. In June, imports decreased significantly, with a slight increase expected in July. Demand is suppressed by the off - season. The strategy is that PE is expected to be range - bound, and PP is bearish on a single - side basis [36]. Methanol - The market's expectation of methanol imports has increased due to the easing of the Iranian situation, and the premium caused by geopolitical factors has been reversed. Currently, port arrivals are still low, inventory is at a low level, and the port basis is strong. Attention should be paid to the actual shipments after the restart of Iranian plants. The domestic supply is tight due to long - term maintenance at Henan Dahua and planned maintenance in Guanzhong. Demand is in the seasonal off - season. Short - term outlook is to wait and see [38]. Benzene and Styrene - The price of pure benzene continues to be weak. The overnight price of raw materials has declined, and some planned benzene - ethylene plant restarts have been suspended due to high ethylene prices. At the same time, the high - load operation of ethylene in major refineries has led to a significant increase in pure benzene supply, putting pressure on its price. In the benzene - ethylene market in East China, the market is generally stable. As the end - of - month paper - cargo delivery approaches, the basis price is relatively strong, with market transactions mainly for exchange, and overall high - price trading is limited. Downstream buyers are hesitant at high prices. In the medium term, tariffs and national subsidies may not further stimulate terminal demand. High profits in benzene - ethylene may stimulate production, and there is still pressure on the supply - demand margin, with an expected valuation repair relying on a decline in benzene - ethylene. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for benzene - ethylene resonating with raw materials [43]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices remained range - bound, as macro and fundamental factors counteracted each other. Trump reaffirmed the "maximum pressure" policy on Iran, including restricting its oil export revenue, but hinted that China could continue to buy Iranian oil and planned to talk with Iran next week. The cease - fire between Israel and Iran has alleviated concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East, and oil prices have recovered from the sharp decline at the beginning of the week. Fundamentally, inventories have declined for the fifth consecutive week, reaching an 11 - year seasonal low, and the inventory at the Cushing storage center has also declined for three consecutive weeks to the lowest level since February, supporting the market. The market focus is expected to shift to the OPEC+ meeting on July 6. Currently, Russia has stated that it will support production increases if the alliance deems it necessary. If OPEC maintains high - speed production increases, the fundamental surplus in the third quarter may continue to pressure the market, causing the center of gravity to fall. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the support for WTI at [63, 64], the upper - end pressure for Brent at [64, 65], and the pressure level for SC at [490, 500]. Option traders can look for opportunities as volatility narrows [47]. Urea - Short - term suggestions focus on three aspects: export - related developments, including market expectations before the Indian tender and actual port - collection volumes; the implementation of supply - side maintenance, especially whether major factories such as Shandong Mingshengda and Henan Jinkai will stop production as scheduled; and marginal changes in demand, such as weather factors and industrial procurement rhythms. The strategy is to consider going long on dips, as the rebound logic driven by news has not been fully realized, and export policy optimization and the Indian tender may continue to provide support. However, strict stop - losses should be set to prevent the risk of unmet expectations [77]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Near - term PX plants are under maintenance, and downstream PTA and polyester loads are high in the short term, providing support for PX at low levels. However, weak terminal demand and limited oil - price support suppress PX. It is expected to be range - bound in the short term. The PX09 contract is expected to oscillate between 6500 - 6900, and single - side trading is on hold. - PTA: Despite plant maintenance at Fuhai Chuang and Hengli, new production capacity and weak downstream demand and terminal load lead to a weakening supply - demand outlook. PTA has limited self - driving force and will follow the cost side. TA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4900 in the short term, with single - side trading on hold and a rolling reverse - spread operation for TA9 - 1. - Ethylene Glycol: Iranian ethylene - glycol plants are restarting, and shipments are normal. The restart of domestic plants and weak demand expectations mean that supply - demand cannot drive price increases. With geopolitical factors cooling and oil prices weakening, ethylene glycol is expected to decline. The strategy is to hold short - term call - option sellers for EG2509 - C - 4450. - Short - fiber: The current supply - demand is weak. Due to planned production cuts in July and low inventory at short - fiber factories, the absolute price is slightly more supported than raw materials, and the processing margin on the futures market has recovered. The absolute price will follow raw materials. The strategy is the same as PTA for single - side trading, and to expand the processing margin at low levels, while paying attention to the implementation of production cuts. - Bottle - grade polyester: June is the peak season for soft - drink consumption. Some bottle - grade polyester plants have cut production. There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement, and the processing margin is bottoming out. The absolute price will follow the cost side. The strategy is the same as PTA for single - side trading, and to look for opportunities to expand the processing margin when it reaches the lower end of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [80]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: Some plants have restarted, and current good profits may stimulate production. Downstream non - aluminum demand is weak in the off - season, and the continuous reduction of alumina purchase prices is negative for the spot market. However, due to the recovery of alumina profits and increased production, overall demand is still supported. Weekly alkali - plant inventory has decreased, and the futures is at a discount to the spot. In the short term, there is limited downward momentum for the caustic - soda futures, but it may fluctuate. In the third quarter, new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and alumina profits may weaken, providing no positive drive for caustic soda. Considering the high - profit valuation of caustic soda, its upside is limited. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, and look for short - selling opportunities in the medium term. - PVC: The short - term contradiction is not intensifying. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction is prominent due to the decline in the domestic real - estate sector, which drags down terminal demand, and there is no obvious negative feedback or clearance in the PVC industry. Currently, PVC maintenance is decreasing, and new production is expected in June - July, increasing supply pressure. Domestic demand is weak in the off - season, and exports are maintained after the extension of BIS. The social inventory has slightly increased, and further drivers need to be verified. The short - term strategy is to wait for rebounds and new drivers to look for short - selling opportunities [89]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Changes**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 closing prices increased, with changes ranging from 0.34% to 0.40%. L2509 - 2601 increased by 8.51%, while PP2509 - 2601 decreased by 5.17%. Spot prices of East - China PP and North - China LLDPE decreased slightly, and the basis of North - China plastics and East - China PP changed significantly [36]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE device operating rate decreased by 2.86%, and downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 1.42%. PE enterprise inventory decreased by 10.25%, and social inventory decreased by 16.91%. PP device operating rate increased by 1.2%, powder - material operating rate decreased by 1.3%, and downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 1.2%. PP enterprise inventory decreased by 3.72%, and trader inventory decreased by 9.21% [36]. Methanol - **Prices and Changes**: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices increased, with MA2509 rising 1.09%. MA91 spread increased by 38.46%, and the Taicang basis increased by 37.01%. Spot prices in different regions changed, with the port - to - inland price difference increasing [38]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 7.02%, port inventory increased by 14.34%, and social inventory increased by 6.11%. Domestic upstream operating rate increased by 0.85%, overseas upstream decreased by 22.67%, northwest enterprise sales - to - production ratio decreased by 8.94%, downstream MTO device operating rate decreased by 6.84%, formaldehyde decreased by 0.38%, and fatty acid increased by 4.50% [38]. Benzene and Styrene - **Raw - material Prices**: Brent crude oil was stable, CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.7%, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was unchanged, CFR Korea and China pure benzene decreased by 1.4% and 1.5% respectively. The pure - benzene - to - naphtha spread decreased slightly, and the ethylene - to - naphtha spread increased by 3.7% [40]. - **Benzene and Styrene Prices**: The East - China spot price of benzene - ethylene increased by 1.2%, EB2507 and EB2508 decreased by 1.4% and 1.0% respectively. The basis increased by 44.2%, and the month - spread decreased by 29.6% [41]. - **Industry Chain开工率 and Profits**: Domestic and Asian pure - benzene comprehensive operating rates changed by 1.2% and - 2.3% respectively. Benzene - ethylene operating rate increased by 7.0%, PS by 0.7%, EPS decreased by 3.3%, and ABS decreased by 0.2%. Benzene - ethylene integrated profit decreased by 76.8%, non - integrated profit increased by 13.1%, PS profit decreased by 39.5%, EPS increased by 42.9%, and ABS decreased by 105.3%. Port inventories of pure benzene and benzene - ethylene changed by 2.7% and - 15.3% respectively [43]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased slightly, while SC decreased by 1.46%. Brent M1 - M3, SC M1 - M3 decreased, and WTI M1 - M3 increased. Brent - WTI and SC - Brent spreads decreased, and EFS increased [47]. - **Refined - product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil prices increased, with changes ranging from 0.46% to 1.39%. RBOB M1 - M3 and ULSD M1 - M3 increased, and Gasoil M1 - M3 was unchanged [47]. - **Refined - product Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads of gasoline and diesel in the US, Europe, and Singapore increased to varying degrees [47]. Urea - **Prices and Changes**: Futures contract prices decreased slightly, and the basis in different regions changed significantly. Spot prices in most regions increased slightly, and the cross - regional spread changed [69][73][74]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic daily urea production decreased by 1.95%, coal - based production decreased by 2.49%, and gas - based production was unchanged. Weekly production decreased by 2.83%, and plant - maintenance losses increased by 29.60%. Factory inventory decreased by 3.53%, and port inventory increased by 29.15%. Production - enterprise order days decreased by 1.75% [77]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent and WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, and CFR China PX prices changed, with CFR Japan naphtha decreasing by 1.7% and CFR China PX increasing by 0.4% [80]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of POY, FDY, DTY, polyester chips, and other products decreased slightly, and cash flows and processing margins also changed to varying degrees [80]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Asian and Chinese PX operating rates decreased slightly, PTA operating rate decreased by 3.5%, MEG comprehensive operating rate increased by 4.1%, and polyester comprehensive operating rate increased by 1.2%. MEG port inventory increased by 1.0%, and the expected arrival decreased by 38.0% [80]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Changes**: Prices of Shandong 32% and 50% caustic soda were unchanged, as were East - China PVC prices. SH2509 and SH2601 increased, while SH basis decreased by 20.2%. V2509 and V2601 changed slightly, and the V basis decreased by 0.8% [85]. - **开工率 and Profits**: Caustic - soda industry operating rate increased by 0.2%, PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.1%. Outer - sourced calcium - carbide PVC profit decreased by 5.8%, and Northwest integrated profit increased by 6.2% [87]. - **下游开工率 and Inventory**: Alumina, viscose - staple fiber, and printing - and - dyeing industry operating rates changed slightly. PVC downstream product operating rates decreased, and caustic - soda and PVC inventories changed to varying degrees [88][89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Despite concerns about demand uncertainty due to macro and geopolitical factors, the strong reality of copper is increasingly strengthening. There is a potential pattern of buying on dips. In the short - term, it is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the absence of effective resonance between macro and micro factors, with a focus on the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton range [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina shows a tendency of fluctuating upward. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a game between weakening marginal demand and low ingot - casting volume and low - warehouse - receipt squeezing effects. For waste aluminum, there is still cost support, and continuous attention should be paid to the opportunity of rolling to do long on the AD - AL spread [1][2]. - Nickel: In the short - term, the firm raw material prices provide support, but the market lacks confidence. Mid - term demand may still restrict the fundamentals to be bearish. Attention should be paid to the premium of nickel ore and the inventory of primary nickel, as well as the changes in overseas policies [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose 0.65% to $9,727/ton, and SHFE copper rose 0.36% to 78,720 yuan/ton. The import of refined copper and scrap copper in China decreased, and the export window opened. The LME inventory dropped to below 100,000 tons, and the market was worried about extreme market conditions [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina fluctuated strongly, with AO2509 closing at 2,937 yuan/ton, up 1.07%. The spot price of alumina declined. The electrolytic aluminum market faced a game between demand and supply - side factors [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 1.14% to $15,075/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 1.19% to 119,490 yuan/ton. The stainless - steel market was in an oversupply state, and the supply and demand of nickel sulfate were both weak [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased, and the price of waste copper also rose. The LME inventory decreased by 1,200 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 955 tons [1][3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 180 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate price rose, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,125 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai changed slightly. The LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 1,620 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased. The LME inventory increased by 432 tons, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipt decreased by 222 tons [2][4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price rose slightly. The LME inventory decreased by 575 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.26 tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.4%. The LME inventory decreased by 25 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 142 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The document shows the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: It presents the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][22][23]. - **LME Inventory**: The LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are demonstrated [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: The SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are shown [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: It includes the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: The document shows the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 3.4有色金属团队介绍 - **展大鹏**: A master of science, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than ten years of commodity research experience [50]. - **王珩**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [50]. - **朱希**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur crack spread fluctuated, with crude oil prices rising significantly. High-sulfur fuel oil, with a large proportion of Iranian supply, performed well in terms of oil product profits. The 380-month spread fluctuated, with the August - September spread at $7.5, and the basis also fluctuated. The domestic FU showed a differentiation between near and far months, with the July contract dropping to around -$7 (it is expected that there will be a large amount of delivery goods), and the September contract fluctuating at around $8. The 0.5 crack spread in Singapore declined, and the month spread fluctuated. This week, onshore inventories in Singapore decreased, high-sulfur floating storage inventories increased, low-sulfur floating storage inventories increased, ARA inventories decreased, floating storage inventories fluctuated, and US inventories decreased. Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased month-on-month, remaining at a moderately high level compared to the same period, while Russia's shipments were neutral. Iran and Iraq account for about 15% - 20% of Singapore's high-sulfur imports, mainly affecting some bunkering and refinery feedstock in the Asia-Pacific region and cannot be used for physical delivery on the futures market. It is expected that Iran's shipments will decline in the future, mainly due to the impact of US sanctions. If the risk events in the Strait of Hormuz escalate, the impact magnitude will increase. Recently, high-sulfur fuel oil is still in the peak power generation season, with the overseas market performing strongly. The domestic FU near-month contracts are under pressure, with relatively low valuations, and the market game continues. For the far-month contracts, attention should be paid to the impact of supply disruptions. The domestic and overseas valuations of LU are relatively high. [4][5] Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From June 19 to June 25, 2025, the prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, and other related products changed. For example, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased from $481.08 to $414.85, with a change of $1.34. [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - During the same period, the prices of Singapore 380cst M1, Singapore 180cst M1, and other related products also changed. For instance, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased from $480.47 to $420.87, with a change of -$7.03. [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From June 19 to June 25, 2025, the FOB prices of Singapore 380cst and FOB VLSFO changed. The FOB 380cst price decreased from $485.32 to $424.16, with a change of -$7.46. [3] Domestic FU Data - The prices of domestic FU 01, FU 05, and FU 09 contracts changed. For example, the FU 01 contract price decreased from 3154 to 2874, with a change of -21. [3] Domestic LU Data - The prices of domestic LU 01, LU 05, and LU 09 contracts changed. The LU 01 contract price increased from 3787 to 3508, with a change of 8. [4]

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market shows mixed trends across different sectors. The stock index market has a positive performance, with most indices rising. The bond market is expected to be volatile, with a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. The commodity market, including metals, energy, and agricultural products, also has various trends influenced by factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. [2][7] - It is recommended to take different trading strategies according to different market conditions, such as buying certain stock index futures on dips, and being cautious in the commodity market with a focus on specific opportunities and risks. [4][5] Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw most indices rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.04%, the ChiNext Index up 3.11%, etc. The trading volume increased by 188.2 billion yuan. The overseas geopolitical risk has cooled down, and domestic policies are expected to support the economy. It is recommended to buy IH or IF futures on dips and consider IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity". [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: On Wednesday, most treasury bond futures had a slight decline. The economic data shows some disturbances and structural differentiation. The central bank's liquidity injection maintains a loose attitude, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, with a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. [6][7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices rose. The market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has increased, and the change in the bank regulatory bill is beneficial to silver. It is recommended to buy silver on dips. [8][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price oscillated and rebounded. The overseas geopolitical situation has eased, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut suppresses the sentiment. The copper raw material market is tight, and the low inventory may support the price to rise, but the weakening domestic consumption limits the upside. The price is expected to oscillate and rise, and attention should be paid to the import loss for arbitrage. [12] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price oscillated. The cost - driving force has weakened, and the demand expectation has improved. The low inventory may push the price up, but the price increase and the off - season effect limit the upside. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [13] - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose slightly. The zinc industry is in the process of converting surplus zinc ore into zinc ingots, with a high expectation of zinc ingot output. However, some factors affect the inventory and production, and the geopolitical situation may affect the zinc ore export. [15] - **Lead**: The lead price rose. The lead acid battery export growth has slowed down, and the downstream consumption is weak. But the high - concentration long - position in the LME lead July contract and the reduction of domestic inventory make the price run relatively strongly, with limited upside for Shanghai lead. [16] - **Nickel**: The nickel price rebounded slightly. The cost of downstream iron plants is under pressure, and the nickel ore price may fall. The nickel iron price is also under pressure, and the refined nickel supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, with a risk of price decline. [17] - **Tin**: The tin price fell slightly. The supply of tin ore is short - term tight, but the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate in a certain range. [18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuated slightly. The marginal variables in supply, demand, and cost are limited, and it is recommended to operate cautiously. [19] - **Alumina**: The alumina price rose slightly. The alumina production capacity is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short on rallies. [20] - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price rose slightly. The market supply exceeds demand, and the demand is weak. The planned production cut by steel mills eases the supply - demand contradiction, but the price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term. [21][23] Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The steel price oscillated. The real estate demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The terminal demand is weakening, and the market confidence is low. Attention should be paid to policy trends, demand repair, and cost support. [25][26] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price was slightly down. The supply has increased, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is in a low - volatility state with support from iron production and pressure from supply. [27][28] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price is expected to be weakly volatile due to the lack of real - estate demand boost. The soda ash supply is expected to be loose, and the price is also expected to be weakly volatile. [29] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. They are still in a downward trend, and the fundamentals point to a downward price. It is not recommended to buy on dips prematurely, and attention should be paid to price fluctuations caused by market sentiment. [30][31][33] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price rebounded. The supply is in an oversupply situation, and the demand is weak. The price may continue to decline, and it is not recommended to buy on dips. [35][36][37] Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The rubber price oscillated. The bulls expect a price increase due to potential production cuts, while the bears are concerned about weak demand. The tire开工率 is rising, and it is recommended to take a neutral approach and focus on short - term operations. [39][40][43] - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price fell slightly. The geopolitical risk has been released, and the price is in a reasonable range. It is not recommended to short further. [44][45][46] - **Methanol**: The methanol price rose. The market is expected to return to the supply - demand fundamentals, with high domestic supply and potential weakening demand. It is recommended to wait and see. [47] - **Urea**: The urea price rose. The supply is high, and the demand is relatively weak. The price is expected to have no clear trend in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see. [48] - **Styrene**: The styrene price is expected to be oscillated and bearish. The cost is relatively stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. [49] - **PVC**: The PVC price rose. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to decline steadily under the background of geopolitical easing. [51][52] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline. The inventory is accumulating, and it is recommended to short on rallies with caution. [53] - **PTA**: The PTA price rose. The supply is expected to increase after the end of the maintenance season, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long following PX. [54] - **Para - xylene**: The PX price fell. The supply and demand are in a dynamic balance, and the price is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long following the decline. [55][56] - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The PE price rose slightly. The supply pressure may ease, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate. [57] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The PP price rose slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The price is expected to be bearish in June. [58] Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The hog price showed mixed trends. The northern region may raise prices, while the southern region has stable supply. It is recommended to go long on near - term contracts at low prices and short on long - term contracts at high prices. [60] - **Eggs**: The egg price mostly fell. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is average. The price is expected to be mostly stable with a few slight declines. It is recommended to short on rallies. [61] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal prices fell. The domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing, and the supply is relatively sufficient. It is recommended to go long at the low - end of the cost range and pay attention to supply pressure at the high - end. [62][63] - **Oils and Fats**: The oil and fat prices oscillated. The Brazilian biodiesel policy is beneficial, but there are still some negative factors. The price is expected to oscillate. [64][65][66] - **Sugar**: The sugar price rebounded. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to change, and the import profit window is open. The sugar price is expected to decline steadily. [67] - **Cotton**: The cotton price rose. The market is in the off - season, and the high basis affects consumption. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [68]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market shows a complex situation with supply increasing, demand remaining sluggish, and cost support weakening. The 2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 7465 - 7645 [6]. - The polysilicon market has continuous supply increase and declining demand, with overall demand in a state of continuous recession. The 2508 contract is expected to oscillate between 30195 - 31055 [8]. - The main logic for the market is the supply - demand mismatch caused by capacity imbalance, making the downward trend difficult to change. The main influencing factors include cost increases, slow post - holiday demand recovery, and the supply - demand situation of downstream polysilicon [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Viewpoint Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the supply was 81,000 tons, a 2.53% week - on - week increase [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand was 71,000 tons, a 13.41% week - on - week decrease. Downstream industries such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy all have high inventory levels [6]. - **Cost**: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - blown 553 is 3972 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - **Basis**: On June 25, the spot price of non - oxygen - blown silicon in East China was 8100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 545 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased by 2.27% week - on - week, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 4.32%, and main port inventory decreased by 1.50% [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 of the 09 contract is upward, and the futures price is above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply scheduling is increasing, demand recovery is emerging, and cost support is rising. The 2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 7465 - 7645 [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the output was 24,500 tons, a 2.94% week - on - week increase. The scheduled output for June is expected to be 98,800 tons, a 2.80% increase from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 12.9 GW, a 1.52% week - on - week decrease. The inventory decreased by 3.10%. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components shows a downward trend in different degrees [8]. - **Cost**: The average production cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 34,520 yuan/ton, and the production income is - 20 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On June 25, the price of N - type polysilicon was 34,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 08 contract was 3875 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 262,000 tons, a 4.72% week - on - week decrease, remaining at a high level in the same period of history [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 of the 08 contract is downward, and the futures price is below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position is increasing [8]. - **Expectation**: Supply scheduling continues to increase, demand in various downstream sectors continues to decline, and cost support remains stable. The 2508 contract is expected to oscillate between 30195 - 31055 [8]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - **Industrial Silicon Market Data**: The report provides detailed data on the prices, basis, inventory, production, and cost of different contracts of industrial silicon, as well as the production, inventory, and profit data of downstream industries such as organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [15]. - **Polysilicon Market Data**: It includes data on the prices, basis, inventory, production, and cost of polysilicon, as well as the production, inventory, and profit data of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market supply is expected to remain stable, with the cross - month spread narrowing to the lowest level since January. The expected increase in high - sulfur fuel oil demand during the Middle - East summer peak has not had a substantial impact on supply. The market is currently neutral [3]. - The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is a bullish signal. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased in the week of June 18, also a bullish factor. The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is trending upward, which is bullish. However, the main positions in both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are short, and the short positions are increasing, which is bearish [3]. - With the significant decline in crude oil prices and the upcoming negotiation between Iran and Israel, the fuel oil market is under pressure. It is expected to trade in a low - level range in the short term. The FU2509 is expected to trade between 2980 - 3030, and the LU2508 between 3680 - 3740 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Asian high - sulfur fuel oil supply is stable, demand is moderate, and the cross - month spread is narrowing. The expected demand increase in the Middle - East has not changed the supply situation [3]. - **Basis**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil basis is 158 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur is 78 yuan/ton, with spot premiums over futures [3]. - **Inventory**: Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of June 18 was 2289.9 million barrels, a decrease of 22 million barrels [3][8]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is trending upward [3]. - **Main Positions**: High - sulfur and low - sulfur main positions are short, and short positions are increasing [3]. - **Expectation**: Crude oil prices are falling, and the negotiation between Iran and Israel restricts the upside of fuel oil. Short - term low - level range - bound trading is expected [3]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Deterioration of the Middle - East situation and the expected increase in summer power - generation demand [4]. - **Bearish Factors**: The optimistic demand outlook needs to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxed sanctions on Russia [4]. - **Market Drivers**: The supply is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The previous FU main - contract futures price was 3206, and the current price is 3020, a decrease of 186 (5.80%). The previous LU main - contract futures price was 3825, and the current price is 3686, a decrease of 139 (3.63%) [5]. - **Basis**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil basis is 158 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur is 78 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: Singapore fuel oil inventory data from April 9 to June 18 shows fluctuations, with a decrease of 22 million barrels in the week of June 18 [8]. 3.4 Spread Data The report presents a graph of the high - low sulfur futures spread from 2021 - 09 - 07 to 2025 - 06 - 07, but no specific numerical analysis of the spread is provided [13]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from April 9 to June 18 shows that the inventory on June 18 was 2289.9 million barrels, a decrease of 22 million barrels compared to the previous week [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical risks have gradually been released, and oil prices have deviated significantly from macro and fundamental guidance. Current oil prices have reached a reasonable range, and short positions can still be held but it's not advisable to chase short [2]. - For methanol, the geopolitical situation has cooled, and the methanol market is expected to return to its supply - demand fundamentals. The valuation has increased, and it's recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, the geopolitical sentiment has cooled. The overall supply - demand is still relatively loose, and it's recommended to wait and see [6]. - For rubber, it's recommended to adopt a neutral approach, conduct short - term operations, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [11]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the market is expected to continue to decline in shock [13]. - For styrene, the short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and the price is expected to fluctuate downward [15]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain volatile in June [17]. - For polypropylene, the price is expected to be bearish in June [18]. - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, it's expected to continue de - stocking in the third quarter. After the geopolitical situation eases, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [21]. - For PTA, the de - stocking slows down, and the processing fee is under pressure. After the geopolitical situation eases, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [22]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental is weak, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling, but beware of the risk of ethane imports [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $0.07, or 0.11%, to $64.94; Brent main crude oil futures fell $0.21, or 0.31%, to $67.61; INE main crude oil futures fell 5.20 yuan, or 1.00%, to 515.7 yuan [1]. - **Data**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 5.84 million barrels to 415.11 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%; SPR increased by 0.24 million barrels to 402.53 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.06% [1]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On June 25, the 09 contract rose 12 yuan/ton to 2391 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of +259 [4]. - **Analysis**: The geopolitical situation has cooled, and the market is expected to return to supply - demand fundamentals. The valuation has increased, and the downstream profit has been compressed. It's recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On June 25, the 09 contract rose 42 yuan/ton to 1740 yuan/ton, and the spot price fluctuated by 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of +10 [6]. - **Analysis**: The geopolitical sentiment has cooled. The supply is high, the inventory is high year - on - year, and the overall supply - demand is loose. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated and consolidated [9]. - **Data**: As of June 19, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.46%, up 4.24 percentage points from last week and 7.31 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 77.92%, up 0.31 percentage points from last week and down 0.81 percentage points from the same period last year [10]. - **Analysis**: It's recommended to adopt a neutral approach, conduct short - term operations, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [11]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 27 yuan to 4871 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4750 (+10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 121 (- 17) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 73 (0) yuan/ton [13]. - **Analysis**: Under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the market is expected to continue to decline in shock [13]. 3.6 Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price fell, and the basis strengthened [14]. - **Analysis**: The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and the price is expected to fluctuate downward [15]. 3.7 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, and the spot price fell [17]. - **Analysis**: In June, the price is expected to remain volatile as the supply pressure eases and the inventory begins to decline marginally [17]. 3.8 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, and the spot price fell [18]. - **Analysis**: In June, due to the concentrated production capacity release and weakening demand, the price is expected to be bearish [18]. 3.9 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 2 yuan to 6758 yuan, and PX CFR fell 10 dollars to 849 dollars [20]. - **Analysis**: After the end of the maintenance season, it's expected to continue de - stocking in the third quarter. After the geopolitical situation eases, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [21]. 3.10 PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 14 yuan/ton to 4790 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 50 yuan to 5050 yuan [22]. - **Analysis**: The de - stocking slows down, and the processing fee is under pressure. After the geopolitical situation eases, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [22]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 9 yuan/ton to 4323 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 82 yuan to 4398 yuan [23]. - **Analysis**: The fundamental is weak, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling, but beware of the risk of ethane imports [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical risk in the international crude oil market is basically eliminated, and the oil price has given back all the geopolitical premium. The PX price has returned to near the pre - rally level. PX has a tight - balance expectation due to some upcoming device maintenance, and its bottom support is relatively stable. PTA is facing new device commissioning in the third quarter, resulting in a mismatch with PX. PTA inventory's absolute value is decreasing, but the relative value is at a five - year high, and the situation of strong near - term and weak far - term is hard to change. The polyester industry chain follows cost fluctuations, and it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Information - **Upstream**: On June 25, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $64.92 per barrel, up 0.85%; Brent crude oil was $67.68 per barrel, up 0.80%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $579.25 per ton, down 1.19%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB South Korea) was $726 per ton, down 0.34% [1] - **PTA Futures and Spot**: The closing price of CZCE TA's main contract was 4,790 yuan per ton, up 0.29%; the settlement price was 4,780 yuan per ton, down 1.12%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 5,050 yuan per ton, down 0.94% [1] - **PX Futures and Spot**: The closing price of CZCE PX's main contract was 6,758 yuan per ton, down 0.03%; the settlement price was 6,752 yuan per ton, down 1.69%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 7,218 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - **PR Futures and Spot**: The closing price of CZCE PR's main contract was 5,960 yuan per ton, up 0.03%; the settlement price was 5,954 yuan per ton, down 1.39%. The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 6,060 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,785 yuan per ton, down 0.51%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,935 yuan per ton, down 0.25% [2] 3.2 Spread Information - The near - far month spread of PTA was 234 yuan per ton, an increase of 8 yuan; the basis was 258 yuan per ton, a decrease of 61 yuan. The PXN spread was $269.75 per ton, down 0.98%; the PX - MX spread was $123 per ton, down 5.51% [1] 3.3 Operating Rate Information - On June 25, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 82.7%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 78.56%, unchanged; the load rate of polyester factories was 90.01%, unchanged [1] 3.4 Production and Sales Information - The sales rate of polyester filament was 22%, down 4 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 55%, up 10 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 46%, up 11 percentage points [1] 3.5 Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest is planned to restart between May 15 and 20 [2] 3.6 Trading Strategy - PTA started to correct, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,790 yuan per ton (- 0.91%), and the intraday trading volume was 902,000 lots. PX was greatly affected by crude oil and followed the decline, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,736 yuan per ton (- 0.24%), and the intraday trading volume was 225,200 lots. PR followed the cost operation, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,960 yuan per ton (- 1.29%), and the intraday trading volume was 46,000 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2]

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold latest price is $3302.50, down $78.05 [1] - London Silver latest price is $36.07, down $0.06 [1] - London Platinum latest price is $1295.00, up $31.00 [1] - London Palladium latest price is $1069.00, up $24.00 [1] - WTI Crude latest price is $64.37, down $4.14 [1] - LME Copper latest price is $9718.00, up $79.00 [1] - US Dollar Index latest is 97.97, down 0.41 [1] - Euro to US Dollar latest is 1.16, unchanged [1] - British Pound to US Dollar latest is 1.36, up 0.01 [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen latest is 144.89, down 1.25 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - SHFE Silver inventory is 1256.83, up 9.73 [2] - Gold ETF holdings are 955.68, down 1.72 [2] - Silver ETF holdings are 14877.49, down 73.50 [2] - SGE Silver inventory is 1378.88, unchanged [2] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction latest is 2, up 1.00 [2] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction latest is 1, unchanged [2]