Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a decline in international precious metal futures, with COMEX gold futures down 0.17% to $4067.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 0.34% to $50.54 per ounce, attributed to reduced expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [1][4] - Analysts highlight that the Federal Reserve's Vice Chairman Jefferson emphasized a cautious approach as interest rates approach neutral levels, reflecting a divergence in monetary policy perspectives among Fed officials [1] - The expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut in December has decreased to 52.6%, down from 93.7% last month, contributing to the downward pressure on gold prices [1] Group 2 - Despite recent declines, analysts believe that gold prices may soon reach a bottom, as future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are still anticipated, and central bank diversification in investments remains strong [1] - Investors typically view gold as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, with gold prices having risen over 50% this year, positioning it for its best annual performance since 1979 [4] - India's Ministry of Commerce reported that gold imports in October reached a record high of $14.72 billion, nearly tripling year-on-year, with cumulative gold imports for the fiscal year so far at $41.23 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.44% [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing interest in gold as a safe-haven asset, driven by geopolitical and financial risks, with significant purchases by central banks and rising gold prices expected to continue [3] - As of November 18, 2025, the gold ETF fund has seen a 0.50% increase over the past two weeks, with a current price of 8.87 yuan and a trading volume of 6397.36 million yuan [2] - Gold prices have risen 55% year-to-date, influenced by economic concerns, geopolitical tensions, and increased inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs estimates that central banks purchased 64 tons of gold in September, a significant increase from 21 tons in August, indicating a trend towards diversifying reserves [3] - The recent hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials have corrected previous overly optimistic rate cut expectations, contributing to a price pullback in gold, although strong support is seen around the $4000 per ounce level [3] - The latest net inflow into the gold ETF fund is 3.65 billion yuan, with a total of 10 billion yuan in net inflows over the past five trading days, indicating strong investor interest [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Macro and Financial Futures - Overseas, focus on the impact of the US government shutdown on the economy and Fed personnel changes. Domestically, the economy shows a marginal slowdown, and policy support is crucial [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to be supported by seasonal factors and weak US employment data, but attention should be paid to US non - farm payroll data [3]. - The stock index is expected to continue to adjust in the short term, but the downside is limited, and the defensive index is expected to perform better [5]. - Treasury bonds are expected to maintain a short - term shock and have an upward space in the medium term [6]. Commodities Metals - Precious metals are expected to continue to adjust in the short term due to unclear December interest rate cut prospects, but will rise in the medium - long term [15]. - Copper prices are expected to recover after a decline, but the recovery is limited [18]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile in the short term and bullish in the medium - long term; alumina is bearish; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile at a high level [19]. - Zinc is expected to be under pressure and volatile [20]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in a weak state, with limited further decline space, but the downside is greater than the upside [22]. - Tin is expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [23]. - Lead is under pressure due to inventory accumulation, but the supply - demand balance is gradually recovering [24]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to be range - bound, with the risk of negative feedback increasing [28]. - Iron ore is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and it is recommended to short on rallies after the basis is repaired [30]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile at a low level in the short term, and suitable for long - positions in the medium - long term [33]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to be weakly volatile due to high inventory and weak demand [34]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is expected to be range - bound at a low level in the short - medium term, with the risk of a corrective market after the positive factors fade [39]. - LPG is expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern, but with high valuations [41]. - PX - PTA is expected to be strongly volatile with the cost side, but the PTA surplus expectation remains [46]. - MEG is expected to be short - sold on rallies, with the support at around 3700 [50]. - Methanol 01 is expected to continue to decline to find support [52]. - PP has enhanced cost support, and it is advisable to try long positions on dips in the short term [55]. - PE is expected to have limited downside and upside pressure, with a short - term improvement in the supply - demand pattern [58]. - Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be range - bound, with limited rebound height [60]. - Fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be volatile at a low level with upward drivers [61][64]. - Asphalt is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to winter storage [66]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber are expected to be volatile, with a weak long - term demand outlook [70]. - Urea is expected to be range - bound, with short - term support from export policies and coal prices [71]. - Soda ash is expected to be range - bound, with cost support and high - level supply [72]. - Glass is expected to decline in the 01 contract but has cost support in the long term [73]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Market news includes Sino - Russian meetings, US employment data, Saudi - US investment, Fed chair selection, and overseas investor holdings of US Treasury bonds [1]. - Core logic focuses on the impact of the US government shutdown and Fed personnel changes overseas, and domestic economic slowdown and policy support [2]. RMB Exchange Rate - Market review shows the decline of the on - shore RMB against the US dollar [3]. - Important information includes US employment data and Fed chair selection [3]. - Core logic indicates that the RMB is expected to be supported by weak US data and seasonal factors [3]. Stock Index - Market review shows the decline of the stock index and changes in trading volume [4][5]. - Important information includes US employment data [5]. - Core logic suggests that the stock index is in a game between policy expectations and profit - taking, with limited downside [5]. Treasury Bonds - Market review shows the rise of bond futures and tight capital [6]. - Important information includes US stock declines and Fed chair decision time [6]. - Core view indicates that bonds are expected to be volatile in the short term and rise in the medium term [6]. Container Shipping to Europe - Market review shows the decline of the container shipping index (European line) futures [7]. - Information includes supply - demand factors and geopolitical risks [8][9]. - Trading judgment suggests a weak and volatile trend, and it is advisable to wait and see [10]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals Gold & Silver - Market review shows the volatile consolidation of precious metals [12]. - Interest rate cut expectations and fund holdings show the change in expectations and stable holdings [13][14]. - This week's focus includes US economic data and Fed officials' speeches [14]. - View suggests short - term adjustment and medium - long - term rise [15]. Copper - Market review shows the decline of copper prices [16]. - Industry information includes inventory changes and import - export data [16][17]. - View suggests limited recovery of copper prices [18]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Market review shows the decline of aluminum - related prices [18][19]. - Core view indicates different trends for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy [19]. Zinc - Market review shows the price of zinc [20]. - Core logic suggests that zinc is under pressure due to high - cost and low - demand [20]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market review shows the price of nickel and stainless steel [21]. - Market analysis indicates a weak trend and limited decline space [22]. Tin - Market review shows the price of tin [23]. - Core logic suggests high - level volatility and it is advisable to enter on dips [23]. Lead - Market review shows the price of lead [23]. - Core logic suggests pressure due to inventory and supply - demand balance recovery [23]. Black Metals Rebar & Hot - rolled Coils - Market review shows the impact of environmental inspections on steel prices [25]. - Core logic indicates the supply - demand situation and the risk of negative feedback [27]. - View suggests range - bound trading [28]. Iron Ore - Market information shows the price trend of iron ore and the impact of coking coal [29]. - View suggests shorting on rallies after basis repair [30]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market review shows low - level volatility [31]. - Information includes coal production and steel exports [32]. - Core logic and strategy suggest short - term adjustment and medium - long - term long - positions [33]. Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese - Market review shows the decline following coking coal [34]. - Core logic suggests high - inventory and weak - demand, with a weak and volatile trend [34]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Market dynamics show the rise of oil prices [37]. - Market news includes inventory changes and geopolitical events [38]. - View suggests short - medium - term range - bound trading and risk of correction [39]. LPG - Market dynamics show the price of LPG [40]. - Fundamental analysis indicates a relatively strong pattern with high valuations [41]. PTA - PX - Fundamental situation shows changes in supply, demand, and efficiency [42][43][44][45]. - View suggests strong volatility with the cost side and PTA surplus [46]. MEG - Bottle Chip - Inventory shows the increase in East China port inventory [47]. - Device information includes start - up and shutdown [47][48]. - Fundamental situation shows supply - demand and cost - profit changes [48][49][50]. - View suggests short - selling on rallies with support at 3700 [50]. Methanol - Market dynamics show the price of methanol [51]. - Inventory shows changes in port inventory [51]. - View suggests the decline of methanol 01 [52]. PP - Market dynamics show the price of PP [53]. - Fundamental analysis indicates enhanced cost support and short - term long - positions on dips [55]. PE - Market dynamics show the price of PE [56]. - Fundamental analysis suggests limited upside and downside with short - term improvement [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market review shows the price of pure benzene and styrene [59]. - Inventory shows changes in port and factory inventory [59]. - View suggests range - bound trading with limited rebound [60]. Fuel Oil - Market review shows the price of fuel oil [61]. - Industry performance shows supply - demand and inventory changes [61]. - Core logic suggests weakening cracking for high - sulfur and upward drivers for low - sulfur [61][64]. Asphalt - Market review shows the price of asphalt [65]. - Fundamental situation shows changes in supply, demand, and inventory [65]. - View suggests short - term volatility and attention to winter storage [66]. Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - Industry dynamics include production, export, and inventory data [67][68][69]. - Core view suggests weak long - term demand and short - term volatility [70]. Urea - Market dynamics show the price of urea [71]. - Inventory shows changes in production and inventory [71]. - View suggests range - bound trading with short - term support [71]. Soda Ash - Market dynamics show the price of soda ash [72]. - Fundamental information shows inventory changes [72]. - View suggests range - bound trading with cost support and high - level supply [72]. Glass - Market dynamics show the price of glass [73]. - Fundamental information shows inventory changes [73]. - View suggests decline in the 01 contract and long - term cost support [73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For precious metals, although central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price center in the long - term, the unclear prospect of interest rate cuts in December and short - term technical weakness suggest a possible short - term adjustment. Attention should be paid to the retracement of the 200 - day moving average [3]. - For copper, as the delivery date approaches, the registered warrant volume has rapidly increased. The spot price of electrolytic copper has declined, the premium has strengthened, and the purchasing sentiment has increased but not significantly. The futures price has shown narrow - range fluctuations and lacks driving forces [15]. - For aluminum, the expected tightening of overseas electrolytic aluminum supply has given rise to a bullish sentiment among funds, leading to an influx of capital into Shanghai aluminum futures and an increase in prices. However, downstream demand may not support such high prices, so Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Alumina has seen price - increasing orders due to environmental production restrictions and short - covering, but it still follows an oversupply logic. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up characteristics with Shanghai aluminum and has strong downside support [33][34]. - For zinc, the expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled down, and the smelting sector's willingness to reduce or halt production in November has increased due to intense competition for ores and a significant decline in TC. The impact needs to be observed through inventory changes in November. There is a possibility of inventory reduction if demand remains stable. Currently, there are significant differences between bulls and bears, and the bottom space can be observed at the end of the month [57]. - For nickel, the expectation of interest rate cuts in December is uncertain, and the progress of Sino - US tariffs has affected risk preferences. Nickel ore prices may remain strong in the short term due to the approaching rainy season in the Philippines and the impact of typhoons on production and shipping. The prices of nickel - iron and stainless steel have declined due to weak downstream demand, and both are experiencing inventory accumulation [73]. - For tin, although there has been some resumption of production in Yunnan, the supply is still weaker than demand due to the under - expected resumption of production in Wa State and a sharp reduction in concentrate imports. Shanghai tin is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with support predicted around 276,000 yuan [88]. - For lithium carbonate, the price has far exceeded expectations, and downstream buyers have no intention to replenish inventory. There is an expectation of a decline in production in December. Technically, the price has broken through the 90,000 - yuan mark and reached 95,000 yuan, posing a high risk for chasing the price. There is an over - rising sentiment, and the risk of chasing the price should be vigilant [104]. - For the silicon industry chain, the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is generally weak, and it is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The polysilicon industry chain is experiencing production cuts and inventory accumulation, with a weak fundamental outlook and wide - range weak fluctuations [115]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Outlook**: Short - term adjustment possible, long - term upward trend supported by central bank purchases and investment demand [3]. - **Market Data**: Included price trends of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, their ratios, and relationships with the US dollar index, US Treasury real interest rates, and long - term fund holdings [4][8][11]. Copper - **Spot Market**: Spot prices of copper have declined, with different degrees of decline in various regions. The premium has also decreased [18]. - **Futures Market**: Futures prices have declined, and the trading volume and open interest have shown certain trends. The registered warrant volume has increased significantly [16][19][29]. - **Import and Processing**: Copper import losses have increased, and the TC of copper concentrates has remained unchanged [24]. - **Scrap - to - Refined Spread**: The scrap - to - refined spread has decreased, indicating a reduced price advantage of scrap copper [28]. Aluminum - **Futures Prices**: The prices of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures have declined to varying degrees [35]. - **Price Spreads**: There are differences in price spreads between different contracts of aluminum and alumina, as well as between aluminum and alumina [38][40]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices of aluminum in different regions have declined, and the basis has also changed [44]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum has changed, and the alumina warehouse receipt inventory has remained stable [51]. Zinc - **Futures Prices**: The prices of Shanghai zinc futures have generally declined, except for the second - consecutive contract which has increased slightly [58]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices of zinc have declined, and the premium has changed significantly [66]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc has increased [70]. Nickel - **Futures Market**: The prices of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel have declined, and the trading volume has increased while the open interest has decreased. The warehouse receipt volume has increased [74]. - **Downstream Market**: The prices of nickel - iron and stainless steel have declined, and the downstream demand is weak. Both are experiencing inventory accumulation [73]. Tin - **Futures Market**: The prices of Shanghai tin and LME tin have changed slightly, with Shanghai tin showing a slight decline [89]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of tin and tin concentrates have declined slightly, and the prices of solder products have remained stable [93]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai tin has increased, while the LME tin inventory has decreased [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Prices**: The prices of lithium carbonate futures have generally increased compared to the previous week, but there has been a slight decline on the day [105]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of various lithium - related products have increased, and the price differences between different grades have also changed [109]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the social inventory of lithium carbonate have decreased [113]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot prices of industrial silicon in different regions have changed slightly, and the basis has increased. The futures prices have declined [115]. - **Polysilicon and Downstream Products**: The prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery chips, and components have shown certain trends, and the inventory of polysilicon has increased [123][133].

WTI在欧洲盘回落至59.34美元，布伦特压至63.38美元附近。需求前景的不稳定性成为压制油价的核心 因素，加之经济数据延迟公布、市场风险偏好下降，能源板块整体维持弱势震荡。短线市场将聚焦美国 库存变化和需求指引，以寻找新的方向信号。 本周市场的主旋律仍围绕避险升温与政策预期再定价展开。美元受益于降息预期降温，美股受到情绪与 估值压力双重影响，黄金继续向关键支撑区间试探，原油则在需求隐忧下维持弱势。随着延迟数据陆续 公布，市场节奏可能在本周中后期迎来新的切换点。 美元仍偏强：政策预期尚未扭转前，美元维持强势结构的可能性更高。 黄金关注4000美元：就业数据集中公布时可能放大短线波动，需警惕支撑被击穿的风险。 美股波动或维持高位：AI情绪脆弱，加上政策面不确定性，指数短线仍承压。 原油看需求信号：库存与需求预期仍是决定油价能否脱离弱势区间的关键因素。 周二亚洲到欧洲交易时段，全球风险情绪明显走弱。受美国政府停摆造成的数据延后影响，加上12月降 息预期显著降温，投资者普遍选择降低仓位风险。ADP就业数据将在稍晚公布，多位美联储官员也会在 美股交易时段发表讲话，使短线波动的不确定性进一步提升。周一华尔街已提前展现 ...

Core Viewpoint - Global markets experienced widespread sell-offs, with significant declines in U.S. stock futures and cryptocurrencies, driven by concerns over interest rate outlook and technology stock valuations [1]. Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell by 3.2%, marking its largest single-day drop since April, amid worries over government spending and geopolitical factors [1]. - The KOSPI index in South Korea dropped by 3.32%, led by declines in semiconductor stocks [2]. - A-shares also saw declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, the ChiNext Index down 1.1%, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.92%. The Taiwan Weighted Index fell by 2.5% [3]. - U.S. stock futures showed significant declines, with the Nasdaq 100 futures down over 1%, Dow futures down 0.5%, and S&P 500 futures down 0.7% [4]. Interest Rate and Commodity Impact - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December dropped to 42.9%, leading to a decrease in optimistic sentiment towards gold, which fell below the $4,000 mark [1][5]. - Bitcoin experienced intensified selling pressure, dropping to a low of $89,253 per coin, with traders betting on further declines to $85,000 and even $80,000 [5][13].

Group 1: Bitcoin Market Dynamics - Bitcoin continues to decline, influenced by ongoing sell-offs from investors behind BlackRock, with no signs of a bottom yet [1] - Altcoins are showing resilience, with some experiencing upward movement despite Bitcoin's downturn, indicating a potential decoupling from Bitcoin's performance [1] - Current Bitcoin support levels are identified at 83,000-86,400 (daily) and 74,600-86,000 (weekly), suggesting strong resistance against further declines [1] Group 2: Ethereum Analysis - Ethereum's recent rebound is not indicative of a trend reversal, with key resistance at 3,100 and a bearish outlook due to EMA indicators [3] - Strong support levels for Ethereum are noted at 2,960-2,926 and 2,800, with a recommendation to wait for Bitcoin's stabilization before considering entry [3] Group 3: Zcash Performance - Zcash is experiencing a significant downturn, down 15%, with strong selling pressure and a potential for deeper corrections [4] - Key trading levels for Zcash include entry range of 585-590, with targets set at 565, 552, and 540, and a stop-loss at 603 [4] Group 4: Market Liquidity and Economic Indicators - The end of the current downturn is contingent on the return of liquidity, with potential catalysts including ETF inflows and Federal Reserve actions [11] - Upcoming economic data releases, such as non-farm payrolls and CPI, could influence Federal Reserve policy decisions [12] - The probability of interest rate cuts in December may rise, which could serve as a market stabilizer [13] Group 5: Long-term Market Outlook - A significant liquidity injection is necessary for a fundamental market recovery, with expectations for TGA spending and a shift from QT to QE [14] - The current high-leverage environment poses risks, with many investors potentially unable to wait for long-term recovery signals [14]

后期对于黄金市场的核心影响因素仍在于美联储政策博弈和地缘局势的变化。其中，地缘政治局势将持 续为金价的上涨带来托底，其中中东局势仍是核心变量。当前，加沙第二阶段停火谈判陷入僵局，区域 冲突潜在风险为金价提供稳定的避险支撑。 而在美联储政策方面，预计围绕政策的博弈将主导金价的短期波动。本周将公布美联储10月货币政策会 议纪要，同时还有多位重量级官员将发表讲话，市场聚焦美联储对通胀的判断与降息时点讨论。 此外，延迟发布的经济数据或成关键变量，并通过直接影响降息预期来驱动金价的波动。而全球央行购 金则将继续为金价提供长期支撑。 综上所述，预计本周金价大概率呈震荡偏强走势，核心逻辑仍为地缘避险与宽松预期双重支撑。从技术 面来看，下方3990美元／盎司一线支撑强劲，构成短期的关键支撑。后市，若金价站稳4055美元，有望 再度冲击4080~4100美元；若跌破关键支撑，或测试3950美元区间。需警惕数据与政策言论引发的短期 波动，整体预计本周金价波动区间在3950-4100美元／盎司。 新华财经北京11月18日电上周，国际现货金价呈现冲高回落的态势，期间金价最高触及4245.22美元／ 盎司，最低下探3997.20美元／ ...

基本面： 周一（11月18日）亚市早盘，白银价格震荡微涨，本周数据风暴来袭：补报两个月"非农"数据，或成金价"生死判官"展望本周，黄金市场的命运将系于新一 轮经济数据的"风暴"之上。尽管政府重启，但缺失数据的"后遗症"将让这些指标更具戏剧性。周一的纽约联储制造业指数将率先拉开帷幕，提供区域经济脉 搏的初步读数。周三的美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要，则是市场解码10月决策的关键窗口，投资者将从中搜寻对通胀和就业的蛛丝马迹。周四 的美国9月份非农就业报告、费城联储制造业指数、周度初请失业金人数，以及现有房屋销售数据，将进一步检验房地产和劳动力市场的韧性。周五欧美国 家制造业PMI初值PMI和密歇根大学消费者信心指数修正版，则可能放大市场波动，尤其若显示出通胀顽固或消费疲软。此外，周五还将公布2025年10月美 国各州就业与失业情况（月度数据），投资者也需要重点关注。 白银图表： ---趋势判断---- 目前白银行情为价格上涨趋势。可以布局支撑多单和压力位空单思路。 1. 白银技术图表显示目前K线支撑位49.98附近 2. 大周期MACD图形呈现均线相交箭头向上大趋势看涨，目前盘整为主要MACD亚盘方向。 ...

Core Insights - The recent performance of gold ETFs shows a decline of 1.00% as of November 18, 2025, with a latest price of 8.78 yuan, while over the past two weeks, there has been a cumulative increase of 0.97% [2] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that gold prices will reach $4,500 per ounce by 2026, driven by weak supply-demand balance and expectations of economic downturns [3] Market Performance - As of November 17, 2025, gold ETF trading volume was 1.95%, with a transaction value of 7.42 billion yuan, and the average daily transaction over the past week was 16.32 billion yuan [2] - On November 17, gold prices fluctuated, hitting a low of $4,006.8 per ounce before closing at $4,045.1 per ounce, reflecting a 1.2% decline in COMEX gold futures [2] Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve official Jefferson expressed cautious views on interest rate cuts, indicating rising risks in employment and a slight decrease in inflation risks, with a 42.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [2] - Morgan Stanley highlights that the recent pullback in gold prices is influenced by signals of a weak U.S. economy and expectations of Federal Reserve easing, with a need to monitor U.S. economic data and Fed policy [3] Fund Flows - The latest net inflow into gold ETFs was 321 million yuan, with a total of 651 million yuan net inflow over the past five trading days, averaging 130 million yuan per day [3]