1、本周市场回顾：铜价高位横盘 截至6月5日国内1#电解铜现货价格为78385元/吨，较上期下跌140元/吨，跌幅为0.18%，周均价为78410元/吨，较上期环比 跌幅0.04%。 影响本周价格的主因：一、宏观方面，美国5月ADP就业人数仅为3.7万人，创2023年3月以来新低，与此同时，美联储褐 皮书显示，近期美国经济活动略有下滑，劳动力需求减弱，疲软的劳动力市场和经济数据或使美联储加快降息步伐，美指 持续低位；另外，全球贸易政策仍存较多不确定性，总体来看短期消息面对铜价指引有限。二、供需基本面，本周现货市 场到货略有增多，分品质来看，差平占多数，因西北某厂新开一条铜杆产线，对外发货有所减少，故好铜相对偏少；需求 端来看，淡季特征表现明显，终端订单表现不佳，且铜价高位震荡，下游工厂谨慎观望居多，仅维持刚需采购。升贴水方 面来看，差平资源下跌较多，好铜相对抗跌；库存方面，端午假期有小幅累库，加之需求表现疲软，故库存较上周小幅上 升。 3、下周市场展望：承压运行 下周来看，市场预计经济有放缓可能，美指或维持低位震荡；国内方面主要关注各类稳增长经济措施的推进情况。二、基 本面来看，TC加工费继续走低，但目前仅有 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the black commodities market, particularly coking coal, iron ore, and steel products, indicating a bearish outlook due to oversupply and weak demand [1][2][3][5][15]. Key Points and Arguments Coking Coal Market - Coking coal prices have shown a short-term rebound but are expected to decline in the medium to long term due to oversupply and weak demand [1][21]. - Current coking coal prices are near the limit up, primarily driven by a short-term rebound after a prolonged decline [3][23]. - The market sentiment is affected by Mongolia's coal export policies and domestic resource law adjustments, which require ongoing observation [1][25][26]. - The overall coking coal market lacks upward drivers, and future price movements may still trend downward [21][32]. Iron Ore Supply and Demand - The iron ore market is characterized by increasing supply and decreasing demand, with global shipments maintaining high levels [5][20]. - Recent data shows iron ore shipments at 30-33 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3% [5]. - China's iron water production is declining, leading to a bearish outlook for iron ore prices, which may fall below $90 [5][20]. Steel Production and Inventory - Rebar production has decreased due to losses in electric arc furnaces, with expectations of inventory accumulation [6][8][10]. - Hot-rolled coil production has rebounded to near peak levels, but overall demand remains weak, leading to price pressures [7][8]. - Current profit margins for rebar and hot-rolled coil are modest, with rebar margins around 50-100 RMB and hot-rolled coil margins at 100-150 RMB [9][12]. Market Sentiment and Economic Factors - The black commodities market is in a prolonged phase of reducing volatility, with weak macroeconomic drivers and pessimistic market sentiment [2][11]. - The construction and real estate sectors are underperforming, contributing to weak demand for steel products [2][10]. - Policy measures have had limited impact on market sentiment, and further effective actions are needed to stabilize confidence [18][35]. Future Outlook - The overall outlook for the black commodities market remains bearish, with potential for short-term rebounds but a long-term downward trend expected [11][16][35]. - The market is closely monitoring macroeconomic indicators and potential policy changes that could influence demand and supply dynamics [13][18][35]. Additional Important Insights - The impact of Mongolia's political changes and resource tax adjustments on coal exports is a significant concern for market participants [25][26]. - The implementation of new domestic mining laws may lead to increased production costs and potential supply reductions [26][32]. - High inventory levels are currently pressuring prices across the black commodities spectrum, particularly in coking coal and iron ore [30][31]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the challenges and dynamics within the black commodities market.

V期现日报 投资次输业务资格·证监许可 【2011】1292 2025年6月6日 林嘉施 Z0020770 | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 304/2B (无锡宏旺2.0卷) | 13050 | 13100 | -50 | -0.38% | 元/吨 | | 304/2B (佛山宏旺2.0卷) | 13050 | 13050 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 期现价差 | 530 | 550 | -20 | -3.64% | 元/吨 | | 原料价格 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 菲律宾红土镍矿1.5%(CIF)均价 | ਦਰੇ | ਦੌਰੇ | O | 0.00% | 美元/湿吨 | | 南非40-42%铬精矿均价 | 60 | ୧୦ | - J | -0.83% | 元/吨度 | | 8-12%高镍生铁出厂均价 | 957 | વેરૂદ | 1 | 0.05% | 元/镍点 | | 内 ...

2025年06月06日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：小非农超预期走弱 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：技术突破 | 3 | | 铜：库存持续走低，支撑价格 | 5 | | 铝：偏弱震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：小幅下跌 | 7 | | 锌：震荡调整 | 9 | | 铅：区间运行 | 10 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 11 | | 镍：短线成本托底，预期偏弱压制 | 13 | | 不锈钢：负反馈与减产博弈，钢价区间震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：基本面疲弱，关注中美关税修复的可能性 | 15 | | 工业硅：商品情绪改善，关注上行风险 | 17 | | 多晶硅：弱势基本面格局依旧 | 17 | | 铁矿石：板块预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：低位震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：低位震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：三轮提降开启，盘面震荡偏强 | 24 | | 焦煤：消息扰动，盘面震荡偏强 | 24 | | 动力煤：底部阶段企稳运行 | 26 | | 原木：弱势震荡 | 27 | | 对二甲苯：PX ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/06/05 China Futures Daily Note 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: China plans to support 20 cities including Beijing and Tianjin in implementing urba ...

2025 年 6 月 5 日星期四 广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z001 ...

稍早前，美国5月ADP就业人数增3.7万人，预期增11.0万人，前值增6.2万人。美国5月份的招聘速度达到2023年3月以来的最低水平。 在美国5月ADP就业数据发布后，美国总统特朗普表示，鲍威尔现在必须降息。他还表示"这令人难以置信，欧洲已经降息九次了"。 数据公布后，美元指数短线走低约20点，美股期货短线走低，纳指100期货涨幅收窄至0.1%，美国10年期国债收益率短线走低，现报4.454%。现货黄金短 线小幅走高，现报3348.86美元/盎司。 当地时间周三，欧股普遍上涨，截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨0.42%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.41%，法国CAC 40指数涨0.52%。 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体法律责任的权利。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes 部分经济学家担心，关税政策可能会在未来几个月导致美国就业市场明显疲软，但目前数据并未显示出这一点。 LBBW银行的首席经济学家Moritz Kraemer表示："我们目前还没有看到关税对劳动力市场、通胀等方面的明显冲击，这些影响可能会延 ...

Production Side - As of the fourth week of May, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.89%, up 0.26 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The rebar operating rate was 42.64%, increasing by 0.83 percentage points month-on-month[3] - The cement mill operating rate was at a low level of 41.83%, down 0.40 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The inventory of rebar was 186.42 million tons, down 0.69 percentage points month-on-month[3] Demand Side - In May, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities was 201.56 million square meters, down 2.12% month-on-month[60] - The land transaction area was 903.48 million square meters, down 5.97% month-on-month[60] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 60,823 units, up 18.85% month-on-month[89] Price Trends - The average price of cement was 368.33 yuan/ton, down 1.61% month-on-month[72] - The price of rebar was 3,077.13 yuan/ton, down 2.36% month-on-month[73] - The PPI for copper was 77,042 yuan/ton, down 0.58% month-on-month[99]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall financial and commodity futures markets are affected by multiple factors such as trade policies, economic data, and supply - demand fundamentals, showing different trends and outlooks in various sectors. For example, in the stock index futures market, the index is affected by news and has short - term fluctuations; in the bond market, the short - term trend of treasury bond interest rates is expected to be "bounded above and below"; in the precious metals market, gold has long - term support but short - term fluctuations [2][7][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - **Financial Futures** - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, the A - share market opened lower and then strengthened. Consumption stocks became popular, while high - dividend stocks declined. The four major stock index futures contracts rose, and the basis discount of the main contracts converged. It is recommended to wait and see, and try to go long on the CSI 1000 index in the 5800 - 5900 range [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The funds were balanced and loose, and the treasury bond futures fluctuated narrowly. It is expected that the short - term treasury bond interest rates will fluctuate within a certain range. It is recommended to conduct interval band operations, pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract, and there may be opportunities to steepen the curve [6][7][8]. - **Precious Metals**: After the "black swan" event overseas during the Dragon Boat Festival, the market returned to rationality, and precious metals declined. Gold has long - term support but short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money gold options to earn time value when volatility rises [9][11][12]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The July quotation of CMA opened higher, and the futures market rebounded after bottom - hunting. The overall attitude is cautiously bullish, and it is recommended to go long on the main contract at low prices [13][14]. Commodity Futures - **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: The weak driving force continues, and the "strong reality" may not last. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the pressure level of 78000 - 79000 [14][17][19]. - **Zinc**: The supply increase is less than expected, which supports the price. It is recommended to pay attention to inventory changes. The short - term view is oscillatory, and the main contract reference range is 21500 - 23500 [19][20][22]. - **Tin**: There is an expectation of supply restoration, and the tin price continues to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions [22][23][24]. - **Nickel**: The market is calm, and the fundamentals change little. The short - term is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [24][26][27]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is weak, and there are still contradictions between supply and demand. The short - term is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the main contract reference range is 12600 - 13200 [28][30][31]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is weakly stable, and the fundamental logic has not changed. The short - term is expected to be weak, and the main contract reference range is 56000 - 60000 [31][32][34]. - **Black Metals** - **Steel**: The apparent demand has peaked, and the cost has decreased, leading to a significant decline in steel prices. It is recommended to operate with a short - bias [35][37][38]. - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron output has declined, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The reference range is 700 - 745 [39][41]. - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills has been implemented, and there may be further cuts. It is recommended to stop profiting on short positions of the 2509 contract and consider the strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke [42][44]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction is weak, and the price may continue to decline. It is recommended to stop profiting on short positions of the 2509 contract and consider the strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [44][46]. - **Silicon Iron**: Large factories in Ningxia have resumed production, and the cost may still decline. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [47][49]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The shipment from Groote Eylandt has resumed, and the supply pressure still exists. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [50][52][53]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Meal Products**: CBOT is weak again, and the two meals are oscillating. The two meals are expected to maintain an oscillatory structure, and the main contract of soybean meal is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2900 - 3000 [54][56]. - **Pigs**: After the festival, the demand is weak, and the spot price is under pressure. The market lacks upward drive, and it is necessary to pay attention to the support at around 13500 [57][58][59]. - **Corn**: Affected by the weak wheat price, corn opened high and closed low. In the short term, it will maintain an interval oscillation, and it is necessary to pay attention to the wheat market and policy releases [60][61].

| 产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 2025年6月3日 | | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | | | 前值 | 日 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解销 | | 122325 | 121525 | 800 | 0.66% | 7C/HT | | 1#金川镇 | | 123525 | 122625 | 900 | 0.73% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镇升贴水 | | 2600 | 2500 | 100 | 4.00% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇 | | 121175 | 120375 | 800 | 0.66% | 元/肥 | | 1#进口镇升贴水 | | 250 | 250 | O | | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | | -203 | -196 | -7 | 3.79% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 | | -3496 | -3085 | -411 ...