Group 1 - The core issue in the US-China trade negotiations revolves around rare earth exports, with China agreeing to approve some non-military rare earth export licenses while maintaining a hardline stance on military-grade exports [2][4] - The US has gradually relaxed some high-tech product export restrictions but remains firm on advanced AI chip exports, indicating a complex negotiation landscape [2][6] - The US is considering extending the tariff suspension agreement that is set to expire on August 10 by another 90 days, reflecting ongoing diplomatic efforts [2][9] Group 2 - China holds a dominant position in the rare earth market, producing approximately 70% of global rare earth output and 99% of heavy rare earth refining capacity, which is critical for military applications [4][6] - The US military, particularly companies like Lockheed Martin, heavily relies on samarium for manufacturing F-35 fighter jets, highlighting the strategic importance of rare earths in defense [6][9] - Despite efforts to find alternatives and restart domestic mining, the US still depends on China for processing rare earths, indicating a significant supply chain vulnerability [6][10] Group 3 - The ongoing trade tensions have led to a strategic stalemate, with both sides holding critical resources—China with rare earths and the US with advanced semiconductor technology [10] - China's recent measures include issuing short-term rare earth export licenses to domestic electric vehicle manufacturers and implementing a digital tracking system for rare earth exports to prevent re-exportation [10] - The situation reflects a shift in power dynamics, with the US realizing that its previous strategies to pressure China may no longer be effective, as evidenced by the need to negotiate on rare earth exports [10]

Group 1: Economic Trends - China's export growth has been declining since March, with rates of 12.3%, 8.1%, and 4.8% respectively, while actual export levels remain stable around $300 billion[9] - Exports to the US have significantly shrunk, showing declines of 9.1%, -21.0%, and -34.5%[9] - The GDP growth for the first half of the year is projected at 5.2%, with a neutral scenario suggesting an annual growth of 4.4% and an optimistic scenario at 4.9%[12] Group 2: Trade and Policy Implications - The trade war narrative has shifted from a core focus to a long-term perspective, with the potential for systemic challenges in key sectors by 2025[19] - The impact of tariffs is expected to deepen quarterly, with macroeconomic conditions remaining variable[48] - The government is expected to implement a "structural counter-cyclical" policy to balance growth and inflation concerns[27] Group 3: Investment and Consumption Insights - Infrastructure investment has shown signs of weakness, with significant declines observed in May compared to seasonal expectations[100] - Consumer spending has demonstrated resilience, with a notable recovery in retail sales driven by trade friction easing and service consumption stabilization[92] - Manufacturing investment is facing downward pressure, with a return to "recession-style" expansion observed[111]

Group 1 - The core announcement from Trump on his social media platform indicated a supposed agreement with China involving the pre-supply of magnets and rare earth elements, in exchange for allowing Chinese students to continue studying in the U.S. [1] - The claimed 55% tariff on China was clarified by White House officials as a combination of existing tariffs rather than a new sanction, with the actual tariff facing China being around 30% [1][3] - The negotiations between the U.S. and China included discussions on restoring key mineral supply, particularly rare earth elements, which are critical for various industries, including automotive and defense [3] Group 2 - The U.S. is facing significant pressure from its automotive industry and military leaders regarding the supply of rare earth elements, leading to a strategic negotiation where China agreed to restore exports under strict monitoring [3] - The trade dynamics have shifted, with the U.S. potentially easing restrictions on certain semiconductor design software and aircraft parts in exchange for rare earth exports from China [3][5] - The overall trade environment remains challenging, with the U.S. imposing an average tariff of 30% on Chinese goods, significantly higher than the 3.1% average tariff before the trade war began [5][7] Group 3 - The implementation of a rare earth tracking system by China is aimed at monitoring the end-use of these materials, indicating a strategic exchange of resources for technology [3][5] - The ongoing trade war has resulted in a significant drop in Chinese exports to the U.S., with a reported 34.5% decline, leading to inventory shortages and rising prices in the U.S. [5] - The complexities of the negotiations highlight the blurred lines regarding technology controls, with only non-sensitive semiconductor equipment being considered for export relaxation, while defense-related technologies remain restricted [5][7]

宏观 股指 市场分析：美联储降息预期升温，美元走弱利好新兴市场风险偏好。国内经济呈现"稳中有 进"态势，消费对 GDP 增长的贡献率显著提升，科技制造投资加速，出口结构向中高端市场 倾斜，货币政策保持灵活适度，流动性充裕为市场提供支撑。 参考观点：关注 6 月 18 日陆家嘴论坛政策信号，中东局势或引发波动率放大。IH 与 IF 建 议采取中性策略，持有卖出虚值期权或轻仓多头。IC 与 IM 可布局跨期价差套利，或逢低配 置远期合约对冲波动。 原油 宏观与地缘：高度关注以伊冲突发展，是近期油价关键影响因素。目前，市场开始观望，波 动率大幅增加。 市场分析：基本面看，原油夏季旺季即将到来，同时美库存连续三周下滑，一定程度上在基 本面也支撑油价的上涨。但同时中期看，需要密切关注中东局势特别是伊朗对以色列袭击的 反击，中东局势若持续升级，则原油价格易涨难跌。多家机构预测称，若地区冲突进一步扩 大，不排除油价重新回到高油价区间。需密切关注该影响因素。同时，若该驱动逐渐淡化， 或冲突降级，原油的风险溢价也将快速回落。近期波动率将大幅增加。 参考观点：WTI 主力关注 78 美元/桶附近压力。 黄金 宏观与地缘：地缘冲突 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on gold. For silver, due to speculative capital pull - up and lack of fundamental support, it is advisable to consider long - term short positions or opportunistically go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. - For base metals, maintain a buy - on - dips approach for copper, expect aluminum prices to oscillate strongly and suggest light - position buy - on - dips, anticipate alumina prices to weaken and recommend selling on rallies, expect zinc prices to weaken and suggest selling on rallies, and for lead, suggest range - bound operations [2][3]. - In the black industry, it is advisable to wait and see for most products, with attempts to go long on螺纹 steel and焦煤 [4]. - For agricultural products, short - term soybean meal is expected to be strongly volatile, corn prices are expected to be strongly volatile, sugar prices are expected to be weakly volatile, cotton requires waiting and seeing, palm oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, eggs and apples require waiting and seeing, and pig prices are expected to be weakly volatile [5][6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, most products are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and for most, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long - term. For crude oil, it is recommended to go short on rallies after geopolitical risks are controllable [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: International silver prices rose 2% on Tuesday, breaking through $37 per ounce, while gold continued to weaken. 43% of surveyed central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months. It is recommended to go long on gold [1]. - **Silver**: Mainly driven by speculative funds, lacking fundamental support. It is recommended to consider long - term short positions or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price oscillated. The global copper ore supply is tight, and Japan's JX Metals is considering production cuts. It is recommended to maintain a buy - on - dips approach [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the 2507 contract rose 0.27%. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a "low - inventory + weak - demand" game state, and it is suggested to buy on dips with a light position [2]. - **Alumina**: The price of the 2509 contract rose 0.28%. The fundamentals are relatively loose, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [2]. - **Zinc**: The price of the 2507 contract rose 0.30%. Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [3]. - **Lead**: The price of the 2507 contract fell 0.71%. It is recommended to operate within a range [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the 09 contract fell. It is recommended to maintain a short - bias view before production increases and consider shorting on rebounds [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the 07 contract fell. If the warehouse receipt registration speed exceeds expectations, consider an inverse spread strategy between the 07 and far - month contracts [3]. - **Tin**: The price oscillated weakly. It is recommended to maintain a buy - on - dips approach [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the 2510 contract oscillated horizontally. Steel supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it is advisable to wait and see and attempt to go long [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the 2509 contract oscillated horizontally. Supply and demand are marginally neutral - to - strong, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is advisable to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the 2509 contract oscillated horizontally. Supply and demand are relatively loose, but the fundamentals are gradually improving. It is advisable to wait and see and attempt to go long [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose. In the short - term, US soybeans are expected to be strongly volatile, and domestic soybeans follow international cost trends [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract oscillated narrowly. The supply - demand situation is tightening marginally, and prices are expected to be strongly volatile [5][6]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract closed at 5668 yuan/ton. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Cotton**: Overnight US cotton prices fell. It is advisable to wait and see and adopt a range - bound strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Yesterday, Malaysian palm oil prices fell but remained strong. In the short - term, it is expected to be strongly volatile [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract corrected. Prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - **Pigs**: The 2509 contract oscillated narrowly. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Apples**: The main contract rose. It is advisable to wait and see [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry - **LLDPE**: The short - term is expected to be strongly volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [8]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see, and consider selling call options above 4950 [8]. - **PTA**: Hold long positions in PX, and maintain the view of selling processing margins on rallies for PTA [8]. - **Rubber**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to go short above 14000 and hold spread positions [8][9]. - **Glass**: It is recommended to sell call options at 1250 [9]. - **PP**: The short - term is expected to be strongly volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [9]. - **MEG**: It is advisable to wait and see [9]. - **Crude Oil**: It is recommended to go short on rallies after geopolitical risks are controllable [9]. - **Styrene**: The short - term is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [9][10]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options at 1400 [10].

（加拿大央行）政策能在支持经济的同时侧重于价格稳定性。 许多公司报告称，打算针对（美国总统特朗普挑起的）关税涨价。 发生严峻贸易战的可能性降低，但美国政策存在不可预见性。 加拿大央行会议纪要：如果经济走弱，通胀受抑，可能会降息。 央行在6月份按兵不动，但会上有讨论降息25个基点的可能性。 如果核心通胀顽固，央行降息的难度将加大。 央行同意谨慎行动，让政策的前瞻性低于以往。 不确定核心（通胀率）表现出波动性、还是持续承压。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The statement emphasizes that there are no winners in trade wars and that unilateralism, protectionism, and hegemonism ultimately harm all parties involved [1] Group 1 - The current global situation is characterized by accelerated changes and a new period of turmoil and transformation [1] - The importance of fairness, justice, and mutual benefit is highlighted as essential for maintaining world peace and achieving common development [1] - The call for unity and the rejection of a return to the "law of the jungle" is made, advocating for the construction of a community with a shared future for mankind [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain the short-term interest rate at 0.5% and plans to slow down the reduction of its balance sheet next year, indicating a cautious approach to unwinding a decade-long large-scale stimulus policy [1] - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, emphasized the need to closely monitor upcoming economic data and the overall inflation situation before considering any rate hikes [1] - There is a recognition of high uncertainty in the economic environment, with mixed signals from sentiment surveys and actual economic data, which complicates the timing of potential interest rate increases [1] Group 2 - Trade uncertainties are expected to suppress winter bonuses and next year's wage negotiations, with actual impacts difficult to predict until more data is available [2] - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East and rising food prices could affect inflation expectations and potential inflation in Japan, necessitating careful monitoring of these developments [2] - The impact of trade tensions may primarily manifest through declining manufacturing profits, prompting companies to adopt cost-cutting pricing strategies [2] Group 3 - Recent data shows consumer inflation fluctuating around 3%, primarily driven by rising import costs and rice prices, although these pressures are expected to gradually dissipate [3] - There is a significant uncertainty surrounding global trade policies, which poses greater downside risks to Japan's economy and price levels [3]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 免责声明 | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | 2025/6/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 最新 环比 | 数据指标 最新 | | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 2038.000 | -28.8↓ EC次主力收盘价 | | 1416.1 | -21.80↓ | | 期货盘面 EC2508-EC2510价差 621.90 | +6.60↑ EC2508-EC2512价差 | | 427.00 | +8.20↑ | | EC合约基差 -8.00↓ | | -340.37 | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 44501 843↑ | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） 1697.63 | 74.82↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） 2,908.68 | | | 723.60↑ | | SCFI（综合指数 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, gold prices may fluctuate due to uncertainties in the Israel - Iran situation and tariff policies, and the market will face a super - week of central banks including the Fed, which may increase market volatility. Silver prices were supported by the Israel - Iran conflict boosting oil prices, but it's difficult to rise significantly again after the previous sharp increase [4]. - In the long - term, considering the ongoing trade war, the downward risk of the US economy, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates, global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power competition, and the wave of de - dollarization, the long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, and it is recommended to allocate on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - **Precious Metals Prices**: On June 16, 2025, London gold spot was at $3415.20/ounce, London silver spot at $36.38/ounce, COMEX gold at $3434.80/ounce, COMEX silver at $36.48/ounce, AU2508 at 792.30 yuan/gram, AG2508 at 8858 yuan/kg, AU (T + D) at 788.66 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) at 8831 yuan/kg. Compared with June 13, gold prices were mostly flat or slightly down, while silver prices rose, with increases of 0.8% for London silver spot, COMEX silver, and AG2508, and 0.6% for AG (T + D) [3]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: On June 16, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 3.64 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 27 yuan/kg, the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) was 0.41 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) was - 583 yuan/kg, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 89.44, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 94.16, AU2512 - 2508 was 3.74 yuan/gram, and AG2512 - 2508 was 31 yuan/kg. Compared with June 13, the price spreads and ratios showed various changes, with the largest increase of 58.8% in the silver TD - SHFE active price spread and the largest decrease of 86.5% in the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) [3]. 3.2 Position Data - As of June 13, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 940.49 tons, up 0.28% from June 12; the silver ETF - SLV was 14675.3622 tons, down 0.36%. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold were 245995 contracts, down 0.40%; the non - commercial short positions were 58514 contracts, down 0.95%; the non - commercial net long positions were 187481 contracts, down 0.23%. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver were 85192 contracts, up 3.92%; the non - commercial short positions were 18542 contracts, down 12.58%; the non - commercial net long positions were 66650 contracts, up 9.68% [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On June 16, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 18177 kg, unchanged from June 13; the SHFE silver inventory was 1194931 kg, down 1.25%. As of June 13, the COMEX gold inventory was 37789752 ounces, unchanged from June 12; the COMEX silver inventory was 498460011 ounces, up 0.05% [3]. 3.4 Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Markets - On June 16, 2025, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 7.18, the US dollar index was 98.15, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 3.96, the VIX was 4.41, the S&P 500 was 5976.97, the US dollar/CNY central parity rate was 73.18, and NYMEX crude oil was not clearly stated. Compared with June 13, the 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 0.02%, the US dollar index rose 0.29%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.54%, the VIX rose 1.15%, the S&P 500 fell 1.13%, and NYMEX crude oil rose 6.27% [4]. 3.5 Important News - Geopolitical: The conflict between Iran and Israel continues. The Israeli Prime Minister said that Israel is willing to stop the action if Iran accepts the US demand to abandon the nuclear program. Trump and the US are not currently involved in Israel's military strike against Iran but may be involved in the future [4]. - Economic Data: The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in June was 60.5, the first improvement in 6 months. The preliminary value of the one - year inflation rate expectation was 5.1%, and the preliminary value of the five - to ten - year inflation rate expectation was 4.1% [4].