Gold (GC=F) futures settled near $4,240 per ounce on Friday, closing out their fourth straight month of gains and bringing the yellow metal back within shouting distance of its record high on firming expectations for a December rate cut. Dovish commentary from Federal Reserve officials has raised the odds that policymakers will decide to cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points next month. Since gold doesn’t produce income, its relative attractiveness improves when interest rates fall. Gold hit a r ...

Group 1 - The US dollar is expected to record its worst weekly performance since late July due to traders betting on further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve next month, compounded by tight market liquidity ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday [1] - The offshore RMB against the US dollar remains stable at 7.074, potentially achieving its best monthly performance since August [1] Group 2 - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the next policy meeting on December 10 has risen to 87%, up from 39% a week ago, reflecting a shift towards easing expectations due to dovish signals from the Fed and weak employment data [3] - Consumer confidence in the US has significantly declined, with households showing reduced expectations for the labor market and income growth, impacting retail sales during the Black Friday shopping period [3] - The toy, infant products, home goods, and team sports equipment categories have been most affected, with 83% of toys sold in September experiencing price increases of over 5%, largely due to tariffs impacting imports from China [3] Group 3 - Concerns remain regarding imported inflation and core inflation in the US, prompting officials to signal rate cuts to stabilize market expectations while balancing inflation control and employment support [5] - This shift in US monetary policy is expected to have positive implications for the Chinese market, including alleviating capital outflow pressures and enhancing expectations for foreign capital inflows [5] - A narrowing or reversal of the interest rate differential between China and the US is likely to increase the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets, while a stronger RMB could lower import costs for energy, raw materials, and key technologies, benefiting domestic manufacturing enterprises [5]

Market Overview - The US dollar index has experienced a decline, dropping below the 100 mark due to weaker-than-expected retail data and heightened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, marking its worst weekly performance since July, currently at 99.70 [1] - US Treasury yields have generally decreased, with the 10-year yield dipping below 4%, indicating increased demand for safe-haven assets driven by interest rate outlooks [1] - Spot gold prices surged early in the week, rising nearly $100, and maintained high levels despite fluctuations, while silver showed stronger gains [1] - Non-US currencies strengthened against the dollar, with the euro, pound, yen, and Australian dollar all appreciating due to the dollar's weakness [1] - International crude oil prices fluctuated, initially pressured by positive signs from Russia-Ukraine peace talks but rebounding later in the week amid increased uncertainty [1] Stock Market Insights - US stocks showed overall strength, led by the technology sector, driven by enhanced expectations for interest rate cuts [2] - Nvidia faced significant pressure in the AI sector, while Alphabet, Google's parent company, reached new highs [2] CME Technical Issues - CME experienced a nine-hour outage due to a cooling system failure, affecting trading in various futures and options contracts, with implications for contracts worth trillions of dollars [5] - The outage severely impacted US Treasury futures trading, leading to sparse cash bond trading and a lack of hedging options for traders [5] - Gold futures and options trading on Comex was also disrupted, causing price dislocation with London spot prices [5] Investment Bank Perspectives - JPMorgan economists have adjusted their rate predictions, now expecting the Federal Reserve to continue rate cuts in December rather than waiting until January [7] - UBS analysts noted the potential for a delay in the Fed's meeting due to data considerations [7] - Several Wall Street institutions have forecasted the S&P 500 index for 2026, with Deutsche Bank predicting 8000 points, HSBC at 7500 points, and Morgan Stanley at 7800 points, driven by the ongoing AI boom [7] - Emerging markets are expected to rise in 2026, supported by a weak dollar and AI investment trends, with Morgan Stanley recommending long positions in emerging market local currency bonds [7] Major Events Summary - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance has led to a consensus around a potential rate cut in December, with expectations for a 25 basis point reduction rising to approximately 87% [8] - The new "19-point" peace plan between the US and Ukraine has been introduced, replacing the previous "28-point" plan, with key negotiations still pending [11] - The UK government announced a budget plan expected to generate an additional £26 billion in tax revenue by 2029/30, primarily through various tax adjustments [13][14] - Trump's "Genesis Project" aims to consolidate AI resources across federal and private sectors, likened to a modern "Manhattan Project" [16] - Nvidia's market position is under threat as Meta shifts to Google's TPU chips, reflecting competitive pressures in the AI hardware space [17][18]

Report Investment Ratings - Gold and silver are both rated ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core Views - Overnight, precious metals showed a strong sideways movement. With uncertainties in interest rate cuts and geopolitical prospects, the international gold price is approaching its historical high, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through this level [1] - On the first day of the listing of palladium options, market trading was relatively dull. On the second trading day of platinum futures, market funds clearly returned to rationality. There are signs of a peace negotiation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Palladium has limited consumption growth prospects, while platinum has a supply contraction in South Africa, a wide range of end - consumption fields, and a supply - demand gap this year. It is advisable to buy on dips and consider a long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage strategy [2] - There are ongoing discussions about the peace plan between Ukraine and the US. Different stances are shown by both sides. The European Central Bank's outlook remains unclear, and there is an opinion that the interest rate cut cycle has ended. The market has high expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts [3] Specific Content Summaries Precious Metals Market - Overnight, precious metals were in a strong sideways trend. The international gold price is approaching its historical high, and uncertainties in interest rate cuts and geopolitical prospects persist [1] - On the first day of palladium option listing, market trading was dull with an implied volatility of around 30% for at - the - money options. On the second trading day of platinum futures, market funds became more rational. Platinum is stronger than palladium, and it is advisable to buy on dips and conduct a long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage [2] Geopolitical Situation - Ukrainian and US delegations will continue work on the peace plan this weekend. Germany believes Ukraine needs strong armed forces and security guarantees even after a peace agreement. Russia has expressed its stances on issues such as US missile deployment and Ukraine's potential NATO membership. Putin said the US peace plan could be the basis for a Ukraine agreement, and the US delegation will visit Moscow next week [3] Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank's meeting minutes show that the outlook is still unclear, and there is a view that the interest rate cut cycle has ended [3] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 86.9%, and the probability of maintaining the interest rate is 13.1%. By next January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 67.3%, maintaining the rate is 9.6%, and a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 23.1% [3]

Core Viewpoint - Silver is becoming a new focus in the commodity market, with futures prices reaching new highs due to tightening supply signals [1][4]. Supply Concerns - The direct cause of the price increase is heightened market concerns over supply, with silver inventory on the Shanghai Gold Exchange dropping by 58.83 tons to 715.875 tons, the lowest since July 3, 2016 [4]. - Although there was a slight increase of 21.3 tons in inventory on November 25, it remains at a near ten-year low [4]. - China's silver exports surged to over 660 tons in October, marking a historical high, which is directly linked to the rapid consumption of domestic silver inventory [5][6]. Cross-Border Trade Dynamics - Due to concerns over tariffs affecting cross-border shipping costs, commodities like gold, silver, and copper have seen a phenomenon of "cross-border migration" arbitrage ahead of tax implementation [4][6]. - The price of New York commodities often exceeds that of London and other regions due to statistical tax premiums, creating arbitrage opportunities that prompt traders to transport goods to U.S. warehouses [6]. Macroeconomic Support - The entire precious metals market is supported by macroeconomic conditions, with traders betting on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver [4][7]. - Fed officials' dovish comments have reinforced expectations for a rate cut, further supporting precious metal prices [7]. Industrial Metal Market - The theme of supply tightness is also emerging in the industrial metals market, particularly copper, with predictions of a supply gap expanding to 316,000 tons next year [8]. - Demand for copper is driven by ongoing investments in data centers and power grids, while supply growth is hindered by production disruptions and declining ore grades [8].

锡产业期现日报 テ 广发期货 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【 2011】1292号 2025年11月28日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 涨跌幅 单位 现值 前值 涨跌 301800 295200 eeoo 2.24% 250 250 0 0.00% 元/吨 302300 295700 6600 2.23% 185.00 135.00 50.00 37.04% 美元/吨 现值 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 前值 -7.90% -17717.50 -16419.72 -1297.78 元/吨 7.85 7.89 - - 现值 前值 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 -740 -650 -90 -13.85% -360 -480 120 25.00% 元/吨 -90 -120 30 25.00% 370 -30 400 1333.33% 基本面数据(月度) | 指标 | 现值 | 前値 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10月锡矿进口 | 11632 | 8714 | 2918 | 33.49% | 世 | | SMM精锡10月产量 | 16090 | 1051 ...

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views The report offers trend judgments and analysis on various commodities, including gold, silver, copper, zinc, etc., based on their respective fundamentals and market news. For example, gold is affected by rising interest - rate cut expectations, while copper is supported by high long - term premium expectations [2][6][10]. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Rising interest - rate cut expectations [2][6] - **Silver**: Oscillating and adjusting [2] Base Metals - **Copper**: High long - term premium expectations support prices. The global copper market is expected to face a supply shortage in 2026 [2][10][12] - **Zinc**: Oscillating weakly [2][13] - **Lead**: Reduced inventory supports prices [2][17] - **Tin**: Supply is disrupted again [2][19] - **Aluminum**: Ranging within a certain interval [2][23] - **Alumina**: Rebounding from a low level [2][23] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][23] - **Nickel**: The inventory accumulation pace has slightly slowed down, with short - term disturbances from macro and news factors [2][26] - **Stainless Steel**: Steel prices are under pressure and oscillating at a low level, but the downside is limited [2][26] Energy Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production by large manufacturers and less - than - expected inventory reduction put pressure on the upside [2][31] Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: Mainly oscillating within a range [2][34] - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the position of the 2512 contract [2][35] Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Limited downstream demand and over - valued [2][38] - **Rebar**: Widely oscillating [2][40] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Widely oscillating [2][41] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Widely oscillating due to market sentiment disturbances [2][45] - **Manganese Ferrosilicon**: Widely oscillating with firm ore prices [2][45] - **Coke**: Widely oscillating [2][49] - **Coking Coal**: Widely oscillating [2][49] Forest Products - **Log**: Weakly oscillating [2][51] Chemicals - **Para - Xylene**: Showing a weakening trend [2][55] - **PTA**: Showing a weakening trend [2][55] - **MEG**: Hold a long MEG and short PX position [2][55] - **Rubber**: Oscillating strongly [2][61] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating with fundamental pressure but valuation support [2][65] - **Asphalt**: Rising production and accelerating inventory reduction in the north [2][69] - **LLDPE**: Positive basis and still abundant supply [2][79] - **PP**: Do not chase short - term short positions, but there is still medium - term pressure [2][82] - **Caustic Soda**: Still under pressure [2][86] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [2][92] - **Glass**: Stable prices of raw sheets [2][99] - **Methanol**: Continuing the short - term rebound pattern [2][102] - **Urea**: Ranging, mainly following spot market sentiment during the day [2][107] - **Styrene**: Oscillating in the short term [2][110] - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market [2][113] Energy - **LPG**: Strong external market and decent demand [2][116] - **Propylene**: Weakening demand support and limited upward driving force [2][117] Plastics - **PVC**: Oscillating at a low level [2][127] Fuels - **Fuel Oil**: Oscillating and consolidating, with short - term fluctuations narrowing [2][128] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Continuing the adjustment trend, with a slight rebound in the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external spot market [2][128] Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Oscillating at a low level [2][130] Fibers - **Staple Fiber**: Oscillating in the short term and under pressure in the medium term [2][143] - **Bottle Chip**: Oscillating in the short term and under pressure in the medium term [2][143] Paper - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level [2][146] Aromatics - **Pure Benzene**: Mainly oscillating in the short term [2][151] Oils and Fats - **Palm Oil**: Reduced trading on high - yield margins and a technical rebound [2][155] - **Soybean Oil**: Ranging within a certain interval [2][155] Grains and Oilseeds - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean market is closed for Thanksgiving, lacking guidance [2][162] - **Soybean**: Stable spot prices and oscillating futures prices [2][163] - **Corn**: Oscillating strongly [2][166] Sweeteners - **Sugar**: Ranging and consolidating [2][170] Textiles - **Cotton**: Pay attention to the trend of the spot basis [2][175] Livestock and Poultry - **Egg**: Increased elimination volume and expected support [2][180] - **Pig**: Position - limit policies drive the divergence between near - term futures and spot prices [2][182] Nuts - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot market [2][186]

今日周五(11月28日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于12635一线上方，今日开盘于12500元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报12718元/千克，上涨3.14%，最高触及12744元/千克，最低下探12384元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 尽管有几位竞争者角逐美联储最高职位，但据彭博社报道，凯文·哈塞特已成为鲍威尔任期于5月结束时 继任美联储主席的领跑者。 分析师指出，哈塞特被视为鸽派候选人，支持更激进的降息政策，这将增加货币宽松预期。降息预期削 弱美元吸引力，导致美元指数承压下行（bearish），短期可能进一步走弱。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银再次刷新高点，目前价位在12700，破位了前高，很明显，白银还是绝对的强势，多头趋势下，上 涨不猜顶，无法看到白银的顶部点位在哪里，沪银溢价收敛至310元/克，沪银情绪依旧偏强。沪银主力 合约参考运行区间12200-12700。 【要闻速递】 凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）是杰罗姆·鲍威尔任期于5月结束时接任美联储主席的领先候选人。 白宫可能随时宣布美国联邦储备委员会下一任主席人选。上周，财政部 ...

Report Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term and recommend buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading; glass is expected to continue weakening [1][5][7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper, aluminum, tin, gold, and silver recommend range trading; nickel suggests waiting or shorting on rallies; lithium carbonate is expected to trade with a bullish bias [1][9][14]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol suggest range trading; caustic soda and soda ash recommend waiting and watching; polyolefins are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][16][18]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA suggests range - bound trading; apples are expected to trade with a bullish bias; jujubes are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][25][27]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs' near - term contracts are expected to adjust weakly at low levels, and long - term contracts should be cautiously chased for rallies; eggs' price increase is limited; corn suggests waiting for a rebound to hedge at high prices; soybean meal suggests range trading; oils and fats suggest buying on dips after a rebound [1][30][34]. Core Views The report analyzes various futures markets, including macro finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, cotton textile industry chain, and agriculture and animal husbandry. It provides trading suggestions based on current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors for each sector. Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to factors such as rising US inflation, weak retail sales, and high - valuation risks in Europe, the market rotation is fast, and index futures are expected to trade sideways in the short term but are bullish in the medium to long term [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is currently "insensitive to positive news and sensitive to negative news" because of the narrow interest - rate fluctuation range, which reduces the attractiveness to institutional investors. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5]. Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking Coal**: The coal market is in a downward trend with weak demand. Most mines are reducing prices, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. It is recommended to trade within a range [6]. - **Rebar**: With unclear prospects for the Fed's December interest - rate cut and a domestic policy vacuum, steel production and demand have both declined this week. Steel mills' profits are low, and production cuts may increase. Rebar is expected to trade within a range at low levels [7]. - **Glass**: Although there are rumors of production line cold - repairs, most of them are false. Supply remains stable, demand is weak, and glass prices are expected to continue weakening [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Concerns about supply from Congo (Kinshasa) and the restart of production in Indonesia's Grasberg mine are factors. Consumption has improved, and social inventories have decreased. Copper prices are expected to remain high in the short term, with a trading range of 85,000 - 88,000 yuan, and it is recommended to trade within the range [9]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is expected to decline, and alumina production capacity is increasing. Aluminum production capacity is relatively stable, and demand is entering the off - season. Aluminum prices are expected to trade sideways [9][10]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's new RKAB policy may increase supply uncertainty. Nickel is in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to wait or short on rallies [13]. - **Tin**: Domestic production and imports have changed, and the semiconductor industry is recovering. Supply is expected to improve, and tin prices are expected to be supported. It is recommended to pay attention to supply and demand [14]. - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by the US economic data and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, both are expected to trade sideways in the short term and be supported in the medium term [14][15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply is affected by mine production, and demand is strong. The domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance, and prices are expected to trade with a bullish bias [15]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: High supply, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export growth. PVC is expected to trade with a bearish bias, and it is necessary to pay attention to policies and cost factors [16]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by alumina production and inventory, it is recommended to wait and watch [18]. - **Styrene**: The rebound is limited by factors such as pure - benzene supply and demand and port inventory. It is expected to trade sideways [18]. - **Rubber**: Entering the off - season of production, inventory is increasing, and demand is weak. Rubber prices are expected to trade within a range [20]. - **Urea**: Supply is increasing, demand from agriculture is weakening, and industrial demand is strengthening. Urea is expected to trade sideways [21]. - **Methanol**: Supply is increasing, demand from the olefin industry is stable, and traditional demand is weak. Methanol prices are expected to trade sideways [23]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply pressure has eased, demand is improving slightly, and prices are expected to trade with a bearish bias. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream demand and raw - material prices [24]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is expected to decrease, demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and watch [24]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global cotton supply and demand are relatively loose, but yarn prices are firm, and they are expected to trade sideways [27]. - **PTA**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, it is expected to trade within a range at low levels [27]. - **Apples**: Warehouse trading is stable, and prices are expected to trade with a bullish bias [28]. - **Jujubes**: Acquisition progress varies by region, and prices are expected to trade with a bearish bias [29]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: Short - term supply pressure remains, demand growth is limited, and long - term capacity reduction is accelerating but still above the normal level. Near - term contracts are recommended to be shorted on rallies, and long - term contracts should be cautiously chased for rallies [30][32]. - **Eggs**: Short - term supply and demand are improving marginally, long - term capacity reduction takes time, and price increases are limited [32][33]. - **Corn**: Short - term supply pressure is relieved, long - term supply and demand are relatively loose, and it is recommended to hedge at high prices after a rebound [34]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by import policies and weather, it is recommended to trade within a range [35]. - **Oils and Fats**: Short - term prices are rebounding, but there are still many limiting factors. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to palm - oil data [35][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the re - release of US employment data and the sharp decline of US tech stocks led to a fall in precious metal prices. The US dollar index continued to rise, and the RMB depreciated slightly. The gold and silver prices rebounded before the release of US non - farm data but dropped again after the news that the October non - farm data would not be released. The market expects no interest rate cut this year. The Fed's meeting minutes showed serious differences. The Japanese bond market was sold off, and the yen depreciated. The net long position of Shanghai gold began to rise, while that of Shanghai silver continued to decline. This week, attention should be paid to US PCE data, the progress of the US - Ukraine "28 - point plan", and the interest rate decisions of the central banks of New Zealand and South Korea. Overall, the upward momentum of gold and silver has weakened significantly, and they will mainly fluctuate [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Review - **Precious Metal Price Changes**: Shanghai Gold 2602 closed down 3.65% at a minimum of 920.5 yuan/gram, COMEX Gold closed down 0.77% at a minimum of 3997.4 yuan/ounce, Shanghai Silver 2602 closed down 6.61%, and COMEX Silver closed down 2.02%. The US dollar index rose 0.87% to a maximum of 100.395, and the RMB depreciated 0.07% [4][14]. - **US Economic Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 8,000 to 220,000, and the number of continued jobless claims reached a 4 - year high. The September non - farm employment population increased by 119,000, more than twice the expected value, but the non - farm employment numbers in July and August were revised down by a total of 33,000. The September unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. The labor participation rate unexpectedly increased, pushing up the unemployment rate. Full - time employment recovered, but industries such as manufacturing and transportation and warehousing continued to lay off workers, and wage growth slowed month - on - month. The October non - farm data will not be released, and the November report will be released after the Fed's December meeting [14][15]. - **Fed's Meeting Minutes**: There were serious differences among participants. Many thought it was not suitable to cut interest rates in December, some were worried about the disorderly decline of the stock market, some thought it might be suitable to cut interest rates in December, and many thought it might be suitable to keep interest rates unchanged this year. Most people thought that interest rate cuts might exacerbate inflation risks. Almost all supported ending the balance - sheet reduction in December, and many supported increasing the proportion of short - term bond holdings [14][16]. - **Japanese Market**: The Japanese bond market was sold off due to concerns about the large - scale fiscal expansion plan of the Kishida government. The 40 - year yield soared to a 2007 high, and the 20 - year and 30 - year yields rose by at least 4 basis points. The yen fell below the key psychological level of 155, and the Nikkei 225 index closed down 3.2%. The market expects the stimulus scale to exceed expectations, and the ruling party even pressured for a supplementary budget of 25 trillion yen [14][16]. - **Other News**: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visited the US for the first time in seven years and confirmed that the investment in the US would increase to $1 trillion. The investment agreement includes nearly $142 billion in US defense equipment sales [17]. 3.2 Weekly Review - This week, attention should be paid to the release of US PCE data, China's November official manufacturing PMI, the fact that Trump set November 27 as the deadline for Ukraine to accept the US "28 - point plan", and the interest rate decisions of the central banks of New Zealand and South Korea [14]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Precious Metal Price Indexes**: Data on various precious metal price indexes such as Shanghai Gold 2602, Shanghai Silver 2602, Gold 2512, Silver 2512, SGE Gold T + D, SGE Silver T + D, London Gold Spot, London Silver Spot, the US dollar index, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB are provided, including previous closing prices, highs, lows, changes, and change rates [4]. 3.4 Position Data - **Shanghai Gold Position**: The net long position of Shanghai gold began to rise, with both long and short positions increasing [14]. - **Shanghai Silver Position**: The net long position of Shanghai silver continued to decline, with both long and short positions decreasing [14]. - **CFTC Position**: As of September 23, the net long position of CFTC gold slightly increased, with both long and short positions increasing; the net long position of CFTC silver continued to increase, with both long and short positions decreasing. Due to the US government shutdown, the data has not been updated [32]. - **ETF Position**: The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and silver ETF have both stopped falling and slightly increased [35][37]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai gold continued to increase, the inventory of COMEX gold continued to decrease, the inventory of Shanghai silver stopped falling, and the inventory of COMEX silver continued to decrease [39][40][42].