Group 1 - The Aluminum Monthly Metal Index (MMI) remains stable with a slight increase of 0.56% from August to September, while global aluminum prices have reached a new high for the year [2] - Concerns over supply shortages are driving aluminum prices upward, with the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum price hitting a six-month high on September 16 [3] - Despite a long-standing global oversupply, demand remains weak, and while global exchange inventories have decreased, the market's reaction to China's aluminum production cap has been muted [4] Group 2 - Although supply concerns have provided momentum for aluminum prices, there are doubts about the sustainability of this recent price breakthrough, as both Chinese and global production continue to rise [5] - U.S. tariffs have suppressed aluminum demand, with North American aluminum demand declining by 4.4% in the first half of 2025, leading Canadian producers to shift exports to Europe [6] - The Midwest aluminum premium has reached a historic high of $0.7323 per pound, reflecting the rise in LME aluminum prices, although trade policy uncertainties persist in the market [8]

Group 1 - The global aluminum market is facing the most severe supply shortage in over two decades, with a potential crisis of inventory depletion if prices remain at current levels [1] - Citi analysts predict that aluminum prices need to exceed $3,000 per ton to stimulate necessary supply growth, with a long-term potential increase of 50-60% towards $4,000 per ton [1][4] - The report emphasizes the strong demand outlook for aluminum driven by sectors such as electric vehicles, renewable energy, and emerging technologies like robotics and AI [4][6] Group 2 - China's idle aluminum capacity has been fully consumed, entering a phase of no new primary aluminum production growth, while demand continues to surge [4][6] - Indonesia is being looked at to fill the supply gap, but even with all planned projects, it will only partially alleviate the shortage, with projected capacity reaching 2.3 million tons by 2029 [7][8] - The report indicates that aluminum prices must remain above $3,000 per ton to provide sufficient returns for new projects, with a potential need for prices to reach around $4,000 per ton if supply does not meet demand [9][10] Group 3 - The aluminum market is undergoing a fundamental structural shift characterized by low inventory, lack of supply elasticity, and strong emerging demand, indicating a bullish long-term outlook [12] - The report highlights that the risk of actual deficits, inventory depletion, and spot premiums in the aluminum market is significantly greater compared to copper [12]

Group 1 - Australian lithium mining companies experienced significant stock price declines due to a combined loss of $1.2 billion in the first half of the year attributed to price crashes [1] - IGO's stock fell by up to 8.4%, while Mineral Resources dropped by up to 6.1%, with other companies like Pilbara Minerals and Liontown Resources also facing declines [1] - The lithium industry is facing challenges from oversupply and declining electric vehicle demand, leading to asset impairments and cost control issues, with prices down 86% from historical highs at the end of 2022 [1] Group 2 - Mineral Resources reported an annual net loss of 904 million AUD (approximately 588 million USD) for the period ending June 30, compared to a profit of 125 million AUD in the same period last year [1] - IGO reported a net loss of 954.6 million AUD and fully impaired its Kwinana lithium hydroxide refining plant assets [1] - UBS raised its lithium spodumene price forecast by 9% due to anticipated supply disruptions in China, and increased IGO's target price by 20% [2] Group 3 - UBS indicated a higher likelihood of supply disruptions in China by 2026, potentially leading to a market supply shortage, although supply is expected to recover later [2] - IGO's CEO acknowledged challenges for the long-term operation of the Kwinana lithium hydroxide refining plant but expressed a positive outlook on market fundamentals [2]

Group 1 - In June 2025, global refined tin production is projected to be 30,000 tons, while consumption is expected to reach 33,400 tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 3,500 tons [2] - For the first half of 2025, global refined tin production totaled 179,000 tons, with consumption at 186,800 tons, leading to a supply deficit of 7,800 tons [2] - In June 2025, global tin ore production is estimated at 25,700 tons [2] Group 2 - The total global tin ore production for the first half of 2025 is reported to be 154,500 tons [2]

Group 1 - The London market for Robusta coffee futures is experiencing its largest weekly increase in over 20 years, with a cumulative rise of 12% this week, the highest since June 2010 [1] - Supply tightness from the two major producing countries, Vietnam and Brazil, is disrupting the market, with Vietnam entering its off-season and reduced harvests limiting supply [1] - Brazilian farmers are currently reluctant to sell their stocks, focusing primarily on fulfilling forward contract deliveries [1] Group 2 - Sugar futures have declined ahead of the release of Brazil's late July production data, despite ongoing production lagging behind last year's figures [1] - The market's concerns over supply shortages have eased as more sugarcane is being used for sugar production rather than ethanol [1]

Supply Chain Performance - Supply chain performance worsened in July [1] - Chinese manufacturers faced shipping delays and supply shortages [1] Input Costs and Pricing - Raw material prices increased in July, leading to the first rise in average input prices in 5 months [1] - Despite rising costs, Chinese manufacturers lowered sales prices due to increased market competition [1]

Core Viewpoint - European natural gas prices have risen due to new pressure from Trump on Russia, with a significant increase in trading activity and potential supply constraints impacting the market [1] Group 1: Market Impact - Dutch TTF natural gas futures rose by 0.7% to €34.97 per megawatt-hour, with a weekly increase exceeding 5% [1] - The potential for severe sanctions on Moscow's oil exports could impact major buyers like India if a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine is not reached [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Analysts from ANZ Bank indicate that tightening global supply may intensify competition for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in the international market [1] - Increased demand for LNG in Asia is exacerbating the risk of supply shortages, while Europe is accelerating its gas stockpiling ahead of winter [1]

Overall Core View - The supply-demand contradiction of lead is still expected to exist, and the price is supported [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Market Data Summary Futures Price - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day; the closing price of the 3M electronic disk of LME lead was 2,015 dollars/ton, up 0.17% [1] Trading Volume - The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 34,982 lots, a decrease of 9,677 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 6,342 lots, a decrease of 3,570 lots [1] Open Interest - The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 41,631 lots, a decrease of 3,239 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 136,798 lots, an increase of 595 lots [1] Premium and Discount - The premium and discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -45 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium and discount was -25.97 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.47 dollars/ton [1] Import and Export Profit and Loss - The import profit and loss of lead ingot spot was -699.81 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.39 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three was -566.31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.6 yuan/ton [1] Inventory - The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 60,059 tons, unchanged; the inventory of LME lead was 262,500 tons, a decrease of 2,425 tons [1] Other Prices - The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [1] Comprehensive Profit and Loss - The comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -507 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton [1] News Summary - There are potential "tariff wars" between Brazil and the US, the EU and the US, and the US and Japan. Brazil may respond if Trump doesn't change his mind, the EU may impose over 90 billion euros in countermeasures if tariff negotiations don't progress, and Trump plans to impose a 15% tariff on Japanese goods while Japan will invest 550 billion dollars in the US [2] - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) stated that the global lead market had a supply surplus of 1,000 tons in May 2025, compared with a supply shortage of 6,000 tons in April [2] - The lead trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2]

Market Trends - Spot platinum price exceeded $1380 per ounce, continuing to refresh a ten-year high [1] - Platinum hit a ten-year high due to expected supply shortages [2]

Group 1 - Speculators exhibit strong bearish sentiment, with net short positions in U.S. corn futures reaching a nine-month high [1] - Market expectations are divided on whether there will be a supply surplus or shortage [1] - Negative sentiment in the U.S. biofuel market is impacting oilseed futures [1]