英国债券延续涨势，10年期收益率下跌5个基点至4.58%。 ...

2/10年期德债收益率利差跌0.432个基点，报+76.355个基点。 周二（7月29日）欧市尾盘，德国10年期国债收益率涨1.9个基点，报2.708%，全天呈现出W形走势，美 股开盘后刷新日高，整体交投于2.683%-2.713%区间，临近结束交易出现一波短线拉升行情。 两年期德债收益率涨2.4个基点，报1.942%，日内交投于1.915%-1.942%区间，欧股开盘前后微幅转跌之 外，全天绝大部分时间处于上涨状态；30年期德债收益率涨0.9个基点，报3.204%。 ...

Group 1 - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has seen a price increase of 0.43%, closing at 123.05 yuan as of July 28, 2025, with a trading volume of 48.09 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [1] - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF reached 21.492 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception, with the number of shares also hitting a record of 1.76 million [1] - Over the past five days, the 30-year Treasury ETF has experienced continuous net inflows, totaling 3.673 billion yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 1.445 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - According to industry analysis, while credit bond yields have not yet reached the average holding costs of funds and wealth management products, medium to long-term credit bond yields are approaching these costs, which may trigger significant redemptions if bond market rates rise further [2] - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, which consists of publicly issued 30-year treasury bonds with a maturity of 25-30 years, serving as a benchmark for investment performance in this category [2]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 28, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Fixed Income Research Team [2] - Analysts: Chen Xi, Liu Rui [3] Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - Credit bond issuance and net financing have recovered, and trading activity has increased [1][4] - The science and technology innovation bond market is in the second half, with room for spread compression [4] - Credit strategy focuses on balancing coupon and risk, increasing allocation to short - term high - coupon city investment bonds and 3Y/AAA - secondary capital bonds [6] Summary by Directory Policy and Market Trends - On July 18, 2025, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued a notice on pilot corporate bond re - issuance and asset - backed securities expansion business, aiming to enhance market depth and optimize financing efficiency [4] - The science and technology innovation bond market is in the second half. Driven by the expansion of underlying assets and policy guidance in the second half of the year, there is still room for spread compression [4] Primary Issuance - From July 21 - 25, the issuance amount of general credit bonds was 351 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 70.9 billion yuan; net financing was 128 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 83 billion yuan [4] - Among them, the issuance amount of urban investment bonds was 107.7 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 10.9 billion yuan; net financing was 29.8 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 27.5 billion yuan [4] - The issuance amount of industrial bonds was 243.2 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 60.1 billion yuan; net financing was 98.2 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 55.8 billion yuan [4] - The weighted issuance term of general credit bonds was 4.21 years, a week - on - week increase of 0.88 years; the weighted issuance interest rate was 1.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 pct [4] Secondary Trading - The turnover rates of general credit bonds with maturities of less than 1 year and 1 - 3 years increased, while those of other maturities decreased [5] - The turnover rate of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds increased overall, with a significant increase in the AAA - level, and a decrease in the AA+ and AA levels [5] Spread Tracking - As of July 25, the average yields of medium - and short - term notes, urban investment bonds, secondary capital bonds, and perpetual bonds with AAA ratings at various maturities were at historically low levels [5] - For urban investment bonds, most spreads widened, except for some 3 - year and 5 - year varieties [5] - For bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, the spreads of 3Y and 5Y levels widened, while the 1Y spread narrowed [5] - Regionally, most provincial urban investment bond spreads widened, with Heilongjiang having the largest widening amplitude of 11BP [5] - In the industrial bond sector, most industry spreads narrowed or remained flat, except for the AA - level chemical and AA - level building materials industries [6] Credit Strategy - Balance coupon and risk, and give priority to short - term high - rating varieties. Pay attention to liquidity premium opportunities at the ultra - long end and beware of policy and credit event disturbances [6] - Increase allocation to short - term high - coupon urban investment bonds and industrial bonds with a duration of less than 3 years [6] - Enter the ultra - long - term credit bond market after interest rate adjustments, and focus on the liquidity premium of insurance sub - debt and science and technology innovation bond ETF component bonds [6] - For bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, pay attention to changes in the capital market and the overall sentiment of the credit bond allocation end when considering sector games [6]

德国两年期债券收益率一度涨5.3个基点至1.964%，创自4月3日以来最高水平。 ...

德国10年期债券收益率升至2.74%，为3月28日以来最高水平，日内涨近5个基点。 ...

Group 1 - The core conflict is between institutionalism and populism, with Trump advocating for lower borrowing costs while the Federal Reserve maintains its distance from political pressures [1][2] - The market's perception of the Federal Reserve's independence is crucial; any perceived political interference could lead to increased bond yields and decreased investor confidence [2][4] - Trump's call for a 3% rate cut could disrupt traditional economic models, with current futures markets showing a near-zero probability of a rate cut next week, but a 60% chance by September [1][3] Group 2 - The relationship between Federal Reserve rates and mortgage rates is complex; long-term mortgage rates are influenced more by long-term Treasury yields than by the Fed's overnight rates [3] - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to inflation, particularly regarding tariffs, is seen as prudent given the potential for future inflation shocks [3][4] - Trump's frustration with Powell's delay in rate cuts highlights the tension between political pressures and the need for stable monetary policy [4]

Group 1 - German bonds continue to decline, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 6 basis points to 2.70% [1]

Group 1 - Global stock markets surged on July 23 due to the US-Japan trade agreement, leading to a decline in market risk aversion and a shift from bonds to stocks [1] - US Treasury yields rose slightly, with the 2-year yield increasing by 5 basis points to 3.88%, the 10-year yield rising by 5 basis points to 4.4%, and the 30-year yield up by 5 basis points to 4.95% [1] - The focus is now on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on July 29-30, where it is widely expected that interest rates will remain unchanged despite political pressure for cuts [3] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index is expected to rise further as the US economy withstands the global trade war, although unpredictable trade policies and attacks on the Fed's independence could trigger market declines [4] - European stock markets rose on hopes of a trade agreement, with bond yields increasing across the board, including a 6.7 basis point rise in the 10-year German bond yield to 2.666% [4] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Australian bond yields also rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 2 basis points to 3.355% and the 10-year yield up by 3.6 basis points to 4.332% [4] Group 3 - Japanese bond yields increased overall, with the 10-year yield reaching a high of 1.6010%, the highest since October 2008, before closing at 1.594% [8] - The US Treasury plans to issue $201 billion in bonds, including $95 billion in 4-week and $85 billion in 8-week short-term bonds, amid expectations of significant short-term debt issuance [8][9] - The actual net financing needs of the US Treasury in Q2 reached $514 billion, exceeding earlier estimates by $391 billion, indicating a strong demand for short-term bonds [9]

Group 1 - Japan and the US have reached an agreement on tariffs, with the US imposing a 15% tariff on Japanese imports, including an increase in US rice imports [1] - Following the trade agreement, global stock markets rebounded, with Japan's Nikkei index rising significantly, closing at 41,171.32 points, marking a substantial increase [1] - Japanese automotive stocks surged, with Toyota rising by 13.65%, Honda by 10.34%, and Mazda by 17.77% [1] Group 2 - The automotive industry is a key sector for Japan, with 1.37 million cars expected to be exported to the US in 2024, accounting for 34% of Japan's total exports to the US [2] - A 25% tariff on automobiles could result in a potential economic loss of up to 13 trillion yen for Japan, impacting over 5.58 million jobs [2] - Concerns about the US tariffs have led to a sell-off of Japanese automotive stocks since 2025 [2] Group 3 - Japan's government has been cautious about increasing domestic investment in the US automotive sector due to fears of hollowing out its manufacturing base [3] - Initially, Japan sought the removal of all tariffs and was resistant to increasing rice imports, but has since shifted its stance to expedite negotiations [3] - Although Japan did not achieve its initial tariff removal goals, the final agreement represents a significant reduction from the US's original demands [3] Group 4 - Prime Minister Kishida is expected to announce his resignation by the end of August, amid various economic challenges including high government debt and inflation [4] - The Japanese government is facing pressure to reduce taxes while managing bond supply, which has led to rising bond yields [4] - The ruling party must navigate internal dissent and collaborate with opposition parties to address pressing economic issues [4]