1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side shows that in November 2025, the total planned output of refinery asphalt is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 26.4262%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37 percentage points. Refineries have reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week. [8] - The demand - side indicates that the开工 rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and modified asphalt are generally lower than the historical average, with only the road - modified asphalt and waterproofing membrane开工率 slightly better. Overall, current demand is below the historical average. [8] - From the cost perspective, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 453.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries is 1,086.84 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18.76%. Asphalt processing losses have increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has also increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen. [8] - The basis shows that on November 25, the spot price in Shandong is 3,020 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 48 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. [8] - In terms of inventory, social inventory is 794,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75%; factory inventory is 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%; port diluted asphalt inventory is 800,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.57%. Social and factory inventories are continuously decreasing, while port inventory is increasing. [8] - The market trend suggests that the MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below the MA20. The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing. Considering the above factors, it is expected that the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3,043 - 3,093 in the short term. [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side data shows changes in production, capacity utilization, and device maintenance. Demand - side开工率s are generally low. Cost - side processing profits and profit differences have changed, and crude oil is expected to support prices. [8] - **Basis**: The spot in Shandong is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. [8] - **Inventory**: Social and factory inventories are decreasing, while port inventory is increasing. [8] - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the 01 contract closes below it. The main positions are net short. [8] - **Expectation**: The asphalt 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3,043 - 3,093 in the short term. [8] 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, which can help analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices. [18][19][20] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is useful for spread trading analysis. [22][23] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, helping to understand the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices. [25][26] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is important for analyzing refining profits. [28][29][30] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical price ratio trends of asphalt, SC crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can assist in relative - value analysis. [32][34] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Regional Market Price Trends - The historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which helps understand the price changes in the spot market. [35][36] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production. [38][39] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical spread trend between coking and asphalt profits from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which can help understand the profit relationship between different refining products. [41][42][43] - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 is presented, which can reflect the sales situation of asphalt. [45][46] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which is important for analyzing supply - side inventory changes. [47][48] - **Production Volume**: The historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help understand the overall supply situation. [50][51] - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The historical price of Marey crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which can affect the cost and supply of asphalt. [54][56] - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: The historical production of refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which is an important part of asphalt supply. [57][58] - **开工率**: The historical weekly开工率 of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which can reflect the production activity of the asphalt industry. [60][61] - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The historical estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which can affect the supply of asphalt. [63][64] - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which can reflect the inventory situation in the futures market. [66][67][68] - **Social and Factory Inventories**: The historical social and factory inventories of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 are presented, which are important indicators of supply - demand balance. [70][71] - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The historical factory inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 is shown, which can help analyze the inventory management of factories. [73][74] - **Import - Export Situation** - The historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can affect the domestic supply - demand balance. [76][77] - The historical import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which is important for analyzing import costs. [80][81] - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which is related to the demand for asphalt in the refining process. [82][83] - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is shown, which can reflect the overall market demand. [85][86] - **Downstream Demand** - **Infrastructure - related**: The historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which are related to the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction. [88][90] - **Mechanical Demand**: The historical sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, and the sales volume of domestic excavators from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which can reflect the construction activity and demand for asphalt. [92][93][95] - **Asphalt开工率** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt**: The historical开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can reflect the demand for heavy - traffic asphalt. [97][98] - **By - Use Asphalt**: The historical开工率s of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which can reflect the demand for different types of asphalt. [100] - **Downstream开工情况**: The historical开工率s of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can reflect the demand for asphalt in downstream industries. [101][102][104] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to November 2025 is presented, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export, import, and production, which can comprehensively reflect the supply - demand relationship of asphalt. [106][107]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see currently [3]. - For methanol, the positive impact of Iranian plant shutdowns is being realized, but the near - term high - inventory situation persists. The supply remains high while demand changes little. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. - For urea, prices are oscillating at the bottom and are relatively resilient. With support from export policies and costs, the downside is limited. It's suggested to consider buying on dips [8]. - For rubber, the current view is bullish. It's recommended to set stop - losses and conduct short - term bullish trades. Partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [16]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak. It's advisable to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and prices may stop falling in the short term [21]. - For polyethylene, prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [24]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus situation at the cost end changes in the first quarter of next year [27]. - For PX, it's expected to see a slight inventory build - up in November. The valuation is at a neutral level, and there is a risk of valuation correction [30]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand may remain high in the short term. The PXN has a risk of valuation correction [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand outlook is weak. It's recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 3.00 yuan/barrel, or 0.67%, to 448.60 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 9.00 yuan/ton, or 0.36%, to 2491.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 40.00 yuan/ton, or 1.31%, to 3015.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed an inventory build - up of 1.04 million barrels to 207.48 million barrels, a gasoline inventory draw of 1.52 million barrels to 85.45 million barrels, a diesel inventory draw of 4.06 million barrels to 91.54 million barrels, and a total refined oil inventory draw of 5.58 million barrels to 176.99 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, and wait and see currently [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 7, in Lunan by 10, and remained stable in Inner Mongolia. The 01 contract on the futures market fell 10 yuan to 2067 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 7. The 1 - 5 spread was + 0, at - 121 [5]. - **Strategy**: The positive impact of Iranian plant shutdowns is being realized, but the near - term high - inventory situation persists. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong and Henan fell by 10, and remained stable in Hubei. The 01 contract on the futures market fell 8 yuan to 1630 yuan, with a basis of - 10. The 1 - 5 spread was + 2, at - 71 [8]. - **Strategy**: Prices are oscillating at the bottom and are relatively resilient. Consider buying on dips [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded oscillatingly. There was heavy rainfall in the Thai production area with a high risk of floods. The November warehouse receipts of natural rubber on the Shanghai Exchange expired and were about to be delivered out of the warehouse, leading to a bullish market expectation. As of November 20, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 60.57%, down 4.13 percentage points from last week and 2.01 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.77%, down 1.60 percentage points from last week and 6.01 percentage points from the same period last year. The export orders of semi - steel tires slowed down. As of November 16, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.062 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons, or 0.5% [12][14][15]. - **Strategy**: The current view is bullish. Set stop - losses and conduct short - term bullish trades. Partially establish positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [16]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract fell 5 yuan to 4491 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4460 (+20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31 (+25) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 296 (-2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. Factory inventory was 315,000 tons (-7,000), and social inventory was 1.033 million tons (+5,000) [16]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak. Consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene was 5320 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of styrene was 6500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 68.95%, down 0.30%. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 26,500 tons to 148,300 tons [20]. - **Strategy**: The port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and prices may stop falling in the short term [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6762 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6830 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 84.63%, a month - on - month increase of 0.63%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 25,900 tons to 503,300 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 500 tons to 50,500 tons [23]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6317 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 78.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.92%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 26,200 tons to 593,800 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 3,900 tons to 213,400 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 1,100 tons to 65,800 tons [26]. - **Strategy**: Under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus situation at the cost end changes in the first quarter of next year [27]. PX, PTA, and MEG PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract fell 54 yuan to 6718 yuan. The PX CFR remained unchanged at 826 US dollars. The load in China was 89.5%, a month - on - month increase of 2.7%. The load in Asia was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. In the first and middle of November, South Korea's PX exports to China were 275,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19,000 tons [29]. - **Strategy**: It's expected to see a slight inventory build - up in November. The valuation is at a neutral level, and there is a risk of valuation correction [30]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell 24 yuan to 4656 yuan. The PTA load was 71%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7%. The downstream load was 91.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on November 7 was 2.227 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons [31]. - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand may remain high in the short term. The PXN has a risk of valuation correction [32]. MEG - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 11 yuan to 3873 yuan. The supply - side load was 70.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. The downstream load was 91.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The port inventory remained unchanged at 732,000 tons [34]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand outlook is weak. Consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated weakly. The Fed's dovish stance on a December rate - cut has increased market expectations, briefly alleviating liquidity concerns. LME and Comex inventories increased, while SHFE copper warrants decreased. Demand is slowly recovering, but high copper prices are suppressing terminal demand, and the high inventory may restrict future copper prices. Without unexpected events, copper prices will show a high - level oscillating trend with low volatility [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina fluctuated strongly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. Northern environmental inspections mainly target the ore end, with some phased maintenance in northern alumina plants. The alumina social inventory has slightly decreased, and downstream raw material inventory is overstocked, pressuring prices. With the decline in the US rate - cut expectation, the macro - sentiment has turned cautious. The aluminum price has a short - term support but is still restricted [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME and Shanghai nickel prices rose. LME inventory decreased, and SHFE warrants increased. The nickel ore benchmark price slightly declined, and the nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain is weak. In the new - energy industry chain, the raw material end is tight, but the ternary precursor in November decreased month - on - month. The primary nickel inventory pressure is obvious, and investors can consider buying at low prices, but should beware of macro - disturbances [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The Fed's dovish attitude on a December rate - cut has raised market expectations. LME inventory increased by 725 tons to 155,750 tons, Comex inventory increased by 5,905 tons to 371,391 tons, SHFE copper warrants decreased by 5,974 tons to 43,816 tons, and BC copper decreased by 25 tons to 6,177 tons. Demand is slowly warming up, but high inventory may limit future prices [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina AO2601 closed at 2,733 yuan/ton, up 0.07%, with an increase of 3,099 lots in positions. Shanghai aluminum AL2512 closed at 21,405 yuan/ton, up 0.12%, with a decrease of 4,542 lots in positions. Aluminum alloy AD2512 closed at 20,645 yuan/ton, down 0.02%, with a decrease of 90 lots in positions. The SMM alumina price dropped to 2,834 yuan/ton. Environmental inspections in the north and inventory changes affect the price [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel rose 0.75% to 14,730 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.69% to 116,100 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 468 tons to 253,482 tons, and SHFE warrants increased by 708 tons to 34,493 tons. The nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain is weak, and the new - energy industry chain has a tight raw - material end [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 24, 2025, the price of flat - copper was 86,185 yuan/ton, up 415 yuan from November 21. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE warrants decreased by 5,974 tons [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 17,140 yuan/ton on November 24, down 20 yuan from November 21. SHFE lead inventory decreased by 3,869 tons on a weekly basis [4]. - **Aluminum**: On November 24, the Wuxi aluminum price was 21,350 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from November 21. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 0.8 million tons on a weekly basis [5]. - **Nickel**: On November 24, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 119,850 yuan/ton, up 1,150 yuan from November 21. The SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 778 tons on a weekly basis [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price on November 24 was 22,350 yuan/ton, down 0.7% from November 21. The social inventory decreased by 0.81 million tons on a weekly basis [7]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price on November 24 was 293,460 yuan/ton, up 0.5% from November 21. The SHFE tin inventory decreased by 29 tons on a weekly basis [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][11][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][17][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series steel from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][44]. 4. Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, and has won many awards. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience [47]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, an analyst mainly researching aluminum and silicon at Everbright Futures Research Institute [47]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, an analyst mainly researching lithium and nickel at Everbright Futures Research Institute [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded [2]. - Silver: It is in a state of oscillatory adjustment [2]. - Copper: The reduction in inventory supports the price [2][11]. - Zinc: It is in a range - bound oscillation [2][14]. - Lead: The reduction in inventory restricts the price decline [2][17]. - Tin: It has declined from a high level [2][20]. - Aluminum: Attention should be paid to the lower support [2][24]. - Alumina: There is still fundamental pressure [2][24]. - Cast aluminum alloy: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][24]. - Nickel: The pace of inventory accumulation has slightly slowed down, with short - term disturbances from the macro and news [2][27]. - Stainless steel: The steel price is pressured and oscillating at a low level, but the downside potential is limited [2][27]. - Lithium carbonate: The game between long and short positions has intensified. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large factories [2][32]. - Industrial silicon: Attention should be paid to the bottom support of the disk [2][36]. - Polysilicon: As it approaches the centralized cancellation period, attention should be paid to the changes in warehouse receipts [2][36]. - Iron ore: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high [2][39]. - Rebar: It is in a wide - range oscillation [2][42]. - Hot - rolled coil: It is in a wide - range oscillation [2][43]. - Ferrosilicon: The cost provides bottom support, and it is in a wide - range oscillation [2][49]. - Silicomanganese: The cost provides bottom support, and it is in a wide - range oscillation [2][49]. - Coke: It is in a wide - range oscillation [2][54]. - Coking coal: It is in a wide - range oscillation [2][54]. - Log: It is in a weak oscillation [2][56]. - p - Xylene: Do not chase high in the short term [2]. - PTA: It is in a unilateral oscillatory market. Do not chase high [2]. - MEG: The supply - demand pattern has improved. Short positions should be reduced [2]. - Rubber: It is oscillating [2]. - Synthetic rubber: It is operating weakly within the valuation range [2]. - Asphalt: It is following the weak operation of crude oil [2]. - LLDPE: The import offers may decrease, and the cracking load is disturbed [2]. - PP: Do not chase short in the short term. There is still pressure in the medium - term trend [2]. - Caustic soda: There is still pressure in the trend [2]. - Pulp: It is oscillating [2]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable [2]. - Methanol: It is oscillating weakly, and the downside space is narrowing [2]. - Urea: It is oscillating [2]. - Styrene: It is oscillating in the short term [2]. - Soda ash: There is little change in the spot market [2]. - LPG: The downstream demand is differentiated. Attention should be paid to the cost changes [5]. - Propylene: The upward driving force has weakened, and the cost support is relatively strong [5]. - PVC: Do not chase short. It is oscillating at a low level [5]. - Fuel oil: The downward trend has reappeared. It may be stronger than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term [5]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The weakness continues, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has shrunk [5]. - Container shipping index (European line): It is in an oscillatory consolidation [5]. - Staple fiber: It is in a short - term oscillatory market [5]. - Bottle chips: It is in a short - term oscillatory market, and the processing fee is compressed [5]. - Offset printing paper: It is oscillating at a low level [5]. - Pure benzene: The gasoline crack spread has回调, and the inventory pressure of pure benzene at the port has emerged [5]. - Palm oil: There are doubts about the inventory reduction in the producing areas. Be vigilant against a second dip [5]. - Soybean oil: The price of US soybeans has declined, and it is mainly oscillating within a range [5]. - Soybean meal: The US soybeans closed higher overnight. It may follow the rebound [5]. - Soybean No. 1: It is oscillating [5]. - Corn: It is oscillating [5]. - Sugar: The total import volume and structure are the key [5]. - Cotton: It is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [5]. - Eggs: The volume of culling has increased, and there is expected support [5]. - Live pigs: The social pig slaughtering node is approaching [5]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the spot [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and inventories of domestic and foreign gold and silver futures and spot markets are provided. For example, the closing price of沪金2512 was 932.56, with a daily decline of 0.47%, and the closing price of沪银2512 was 12046, with a daily decline of 0.81% [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled dovishness, indicating that there is still room for interest rate cuts in the "near term". The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut exceeded 70% during the session [7]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of gold and silver is 0, indicating a neutral stance [9]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of domestic and foreign copper futures and spot markets are presented. For example, the closing price of沪铜主力合约 was 85,660, with a daily decline of 0.55%, and the inventory of沪铜 decreased by 5,193 tons [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: After the "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled dovishness, the price of US Treasury bonds accelerated its rise, and the yield reached a new low this month. The US dollar index rose and reached a nearly six - month high. The initial value of the US S&P Global Composite PMI in November was 54.8, the highest in four months [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral stance [13]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of domestic and foreign zinc futures and spot markets are given. For example, the closing price of沪锌主力 was 22390, with a daily increase of 0.02%, and the inventory of沪锌 decreased by 771 tons [14]. - **News**: Trump - appointed Federal Reserve governor Milan said that the impact of the September non - farm payrolls report was "obviously dovish", and the November CPI might be released after the December interest rate decision [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral stance [16]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of domestic and foreign lead futures and spot markets are provided. For example, the closing price of沪铅主力 was 17165, with a daily decline of 0.32%, and the inventory of沪铅 decreased by 601 tons [17]. - **News**: After the "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled dovishness, the price of US Treasury bonds accelerated its rise, and the yield reached a new low this month. The US dollar index rose and reached a nearly six - month high [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral stance [18]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of domestic and foreign tin futures and spot markets are presented. For example, the closing price of沪锡主力合约 was 292,030, with a daily decline of 0.46%, and the inventory of沪锡 increased by 31 tons [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled dovishness, indicating that there is still room for interest rate cuts in the "near term". The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut exceeded 70% during the session [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of tin is 0, indicating a neutral stance [23]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of domestic and foreign aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot markets are given. For example, the closing price of沪铝主力合约 was 21340, with a decline of 190 compared to the previous trading day [24]. - **Comprehensive News**: The "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled dovishness, indicating that there is still room for interest rate cuts in the "near term". The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut exceeded 70% during the session [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating a neutral stance [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of domestic and foreign nickel and stainless - steel futures and spot markets are provided. For example, the closing price of沪镍主力 was 114,050, with a decline of 1,330 compared to the previous trading day [27]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Due to violations of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area. China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are +1, indicating a moderately bullish stance [31]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of lithium carbonate futures and spot markets are presented. For example, the closing price of the 2601 contract was 91,020, with a decline of 7,960 compared to the previous trading day [32]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 92801 yuan/ton, a increase of 401 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [33]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral stance [35]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures and spot markets are given. For example, the closing price of Si2601 was 8,960, with a decline of 115 compared to the previous trading day [36]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On November 14, the government of Urad Rear Banner held a project docking and negotiation meeting with China Association for Science and Technology Zhongti Zhengli Group, discussing a 400,000 - ton organic silicon and 200,000 - ton industrial silicon project [36]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, indicating a neutral stance, and the trend intensity of polysilicon is 1, indicating a moderately bullish stance [38]. Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of iron - ore futures and spot markets are provided. For example, the closing price of iron - ore futures was 785.5 yuan/ton, with a decline of 3.0 yuan/ton [39]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year [40]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is - 1, indicating a moderately bearish stance [40]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot markets are presented. For example, the closing price of RB2601 was 3,057 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2 yuan/ton [43]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to the weekly data from Steel Union on November 20, the output of rebar increased by 7.96 tons, and the output of hot - rolled coil increased by 2.35 tons [44]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of rebar and hot - rolled coil are 0, indicating a neutral stance [47]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures and spot markets are given. For example, the closing price of the ferrosilicon 2603 contract was 5472 yuan/ton, with an increase of 26 yuan/ton [49]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On November 21, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5050 - 5150 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton [50]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are 0, indicating a neutral stance [52]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of coke and coking - coal futures and spot markets are provided. For example, the closing price of JM2601 was 1103 yuan/ton, with a decline of 10.5 yuan/ton [54]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season [55]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are 0, indicating a neutral stance [55]. Log There is no detailed fundamental data, news, or trend intensity information provided specifically for logs in the content, only the view that it is in a weak oscillation [56].

截至2025年11月21日当周，沥青期货主力合约收于3009元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周减持26713 手。 宝城期货：综合来看，沥青供应端因利润下降而被动收缩；需求端受制于资金与天气因素，呈现"北弱 南强"的区域分化，整体复苏动能不足。沥青社会库存去化缓解了市场压力，但炼厂库存的边际累增也 预示着销售压力的加大。在供需双弱的大背景下，后市沥青期货或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 一德期货：百川炼厂库存增加、社库减少，短期供需驱动中性。中期来看，11月供应同比基本持平，预 计炼厂库存开始累积，社会库存减少，盘面计价冬储预期价格，近期稀释沥青贴水下跌，关注原油价格 方向。 截至11月21日当周，70家样本企业社会库存79.4万吨，环比下降3.1万吨，山东社会库存25.9万吨，环比 下降3.9万吨。 机构观点汇总： 本周（11月17日-11月21日）市场上看，沥青期货周内开盘报3048元/吨，最高触及3084元/吨，最低下探 至2976元/吨，周度涨跌幅达-0.63%。 消息面回顾： 本周国内沥青54家企业厂家样本出货量共36.2万吨，环比减少18.7%；国内69家样本改性沥青企业产能 利用率为12.6%，环比节前减 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, despite short-term interest rate cut expectations suppressing market performance [3]. Core Views - The report highlights that the high prosperity trend in the sector remains unchanged, with a focus on the recovery potential of precious metals and stable supply-demand dynamics in industrial metals [4][5]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.90%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 5.13%. The non-ferrous metals index decreased by 6.75%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.98 percentage points [5][6]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 65.71%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 52.53 percentage points [7]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals saw price fluctuations, with LME copper down by 0.69% and COMEX gold down by 0.53% [4][14]. - Lithium prices increased significantly, with lithium spodumene up by 17.84% and battery-grade lithium carbonate up by 6.90% [4][16]. Precious Metals - The report notes that the U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, impacting gold prices. The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing central bank purchases and a low current gold reserve in China [4][19]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like Shandong Gold, Zhaojin Mining, and Zijin Mining for potential investment opportunities in the precious metals sector [4][17]. Industrial Metals - Copper demand is expected to remain strong, with supply disruptions anticipated due to a recent landslide at Freeport's Grasberg mine, potentially reducing global copper supply by about 2.2% [4][29]. - The report recommends关注 companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals for copper investments [4][17]. Aluminum - The aluminum sector is expected to see a tightening supply-demand balance, with domestic production capacity constraints. The report suggests关注 companies like China Aluminum and Xinjiang Zhonghe for investment [4][42]. - The report indicates that the average profit in the electrolytic aluminum industry is approximately 5,489 yuan per ton, with costs decreasing slightly [4][44]. Steel - The steel production is on the rise, with a decrease in inventory levels. The report highlights the importance of monitoring supply adjustments and export demand [4][18]. - Companies like Baosteel and Shagang Group are identified as stable dividend-paying stocks worth关注 [4][18]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides detailed valuations for key companies in the non-ferrous metals and steel sectors, indicating potential investment opportunities based on their earnings and price-to-earnings ratios [4][17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals. In the short - term, due to the unclear prospect of a December interest rate cut, the prices will likely continue to fluctuate and adjust, with a possible narrowing of the fluctuation range [3]. - **Copper**: The intraday procurement and sales sentiment has increased, and the spot price has risen while the premium has weakened. The copper price faces pressure at 86,500 - 86,600. Given the weak impact of the unemployment data on the December interest rate cut expectation and the dollar index remaining above 100, the copper price will likely fluctuate around 86,000 [17]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum will maintain a moderately strong long - term trend. In the short - term, weak fundamentals and a lower probability of a December interest rate cut have led to profit - taking by previous funds. It will likely consolidate with an overall higher price center. Alumina has seen price - increasing orders due to environmental restrictions and short - covering, but it is still in an oversupply situation. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up characteristics to Shanghai aluminum and strong downside support [37][38]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of an interest rate cut has cooled. In terms of fundamentals, the smelting end is competing for ore, resulting in a significant decline in November TC. The smelting end's willingness to reduce or halt production has increased in November. If demand remains stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction. Currently, there are large differences between bulls and bears, and the bottom space can be observed at the end of the month [59]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price of ferronickel has continued to decline, breaking below 900 and still falling due to weak downstream demand. Under the situation of a significant collapse in costs, the downside space for nickel and stainless steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless steel spot has high shipment pressure, and downstream purchasing willingness is low. Attention should be paid to the demand trend and Indonesian policy support expectations [75]. - **Tin**: Fundamentally, there is some resumption of production in Yunnan, but due to the lower - than - expected resumption of production in Wa State, the import of concentrate has sharply decreased, and supply is weaker than demand. In the short - term, it is difficult to solve the raw material problem on the supply side, and Shanghai tin will maintain a high - level shock, with support expected around 276,000 yuan [88]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: This week, lithium carbonate production and inventory showed the characteristic of "increasing production and reducing inventory", but the inventory reduction process has significantly slowed down. High prices have weakened downstream enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory, suppressing price increases. Technically, the futures price faces a key pressure level of 100,000 yuan, with limited short - term upward momentum and significant callback risks [104]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: For industrial silicon, considering supply - demand and technical factors, the price has strong downside support and limited downward space. For polysilicon, policy - driven short - term stimulation coexists with a weak fundamental situation, and the price increase is limited due to insufficient demand support [115]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Outlook**: Medium - to long - term upward trend; short - term fluctuation and adjustment with possible range narrowing [3]. - **Price Data**: Various price charts of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, including price trends, spreads, and relationships with other factors such as the US dollar index and US Treasury real interest rates are presented [4][9][12]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Likely to fluctuate around 86,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai copper main contract is at 85,660 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.55% [18]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic copper spot prices and premiums are presented. For example, the Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is at 85,815 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.72% [23]. - **Import and Processing Data**: Copper import profit and loss and copper concentrate TC data are given. The current copper import profit and loss is - 488.26 yuan/ton, with a daily change rate of 82.21% [28]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are provided. The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 49,790 tons, with a daily decline of 9.44% [33]. Aluminum - **Price Outlook**: Shanghai aluminum will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term with a higher price center; alumina is in an oversupply situation [37]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London aluminum and alumina futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai aluminum main contract is at 21,340 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.88% [39]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic aluminum spot prices, premiums, and spreads are presented. For example, the East China aluminum price is at 21,380 yuan/ton, with a daily change rate of 9.09% [46]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai and London aluminum and alumina warehouse receipts are provided. For example, the total Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts are 69,283 tons, with a daily decline of 0.18% [53]. Zinc - **Price Outlook**: Uncertainty exists due to cooling interest rate cut expectations and supply - side issues. Observe export and macro factors and the bottom space at the end of the month [59]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London zinc futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai zinc main contract is at 22,395 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.07% [60]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic and international zinc spot prices and premiums are presented. For example, the SMM 0 zinc average price is at 22,440 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.04% [68]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai and London zinc warehouse receipts are provided. For example, the total Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 72,897 tons, with a daily decline of 1.05% [72]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Outlook**: Ferronickel prices are falling, and the downside space for nickel and stainless steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless steel has high shipment pressure [75]. - **Futures and Related Data**: The latest prices, changes, trading volumes, open interests, and warehouse receipt data of Shanghai and London nickel and stainless steel futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai nickel main contract is at 114,050 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1% [76]. - **Downstream Data**: Data on nickel ore prices, inventory, and downstream profit margins are presented, such as the price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) and the profit margin of China's integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel [80][83]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: Shanghai tin will maintain a high - level shock, with support expected around 276,000 yuan [88]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London tin futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai tin main contract is at 290,740 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.44% [89]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various tin spot prices are presented. For example, the Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot is at 291,300 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.07% [93]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai and London tin warehouse receipts are provided. For example, the total Shanghai tin warehouse receipts are 5,906 tons, with a daily decline of 1.42% [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Outlook**: The "increasing production and reducing inventory" process has slowed down. High prices have suppressed downstream replenishment willingness. The futures price faces a key pressure level of 100,000 yuan, with limited short - term upward space [104]. - **Futures Data**: The latest closing prices, daily and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures are provided, along with data on spreads between different contracts [105][107]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily and weekly changes of various lithium - related spot prices are presented, such as the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price at 92,300 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.1% [109]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data and daily and weekly changes of lithium carbonate exchange inventory, including warehouse receipts, social inventory, smelter inventory, and downstream inventory, are provided [113]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Outlook**: Industrial silicon has strong downside support and limited downward space. Polysilicon has limited upside space due to weak fundamentals [115]. - **Industrial Silicon Spot Data**: The latest prices of various industrial silicon products in different regions and their basis data are provided. For example, the East China 553 industrial silicon is at 9,550 yuan/ton [116]. - **Industrial Silicon Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures are provided. For example, the industrial silicon main contract is at 8,960 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.27% [117]. - **Polysilicon and Related Product Data**: Price data of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other products, as well as inventory and production data of the industry chain, are presented [125][136].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market in November saw a decline in both supply and demand, with a larger decline in supply. However, due to the large supply base and the replenishment of the spot market by cancelled warehouse receipts, there is still pressure to accumulate inventory. In December, the decline in production is expected to narrow, but if the organic silicon industry reduces production, the inventory accumulation pressure will increase. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and short positions can gradually take profits at low prices [1]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is expected to stabilize. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. In the short term, the supply of polysilicon is relatively high, but the long - term supply - demand balance driven by the exit of backward production capacity will support the price. The futures price has fallen back to a reasonable range, and attention should be paid to the support level, as well as the establishment of platform companies, production control, demand changes, and the digestion of warehouse receipts after the November contract cancellation [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The market maintains a supply - demand surplus pattern, with short - term supply pressure increasing. The price is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction trends of high - cost enterprises [3][4]. - **Aluminum**: The price will fluctuate between macro - level positive factors and weak fundamentals in the short term. The medium - term supply shortage pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to downstream start - up changes, inventory reduction rhythms, and overseas policy trends [3][4]. Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, a bullish view on tin prices is maintained. Existing long positions can be held, and attention should be paid to macro - level changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [6][7]. Zinc - The fundamentals provide limited support for the continuous upward movement of zinc prices. In the short term, it may still be volatile. An upward breakthrough requires an improvement in demand, and a downward breakthrough requires continuous inventory accumulation. The export of zinc ingots may boost domestic zinc prices, and the short - term main contract reference range is 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [9]. Copper - The market expects the probability of an interest rate cut in December to decline, and the copper price is oscillating weakly. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center. The main contract reference range is 85,000 - 86,500 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to changes in demand and overseas interest rate cut expectations [10]. Nickel - The macro - level exerts some pressure, and the improvement in fundamentals is limited. The medium - term supply is abundant, which restricts the upward space of the price. The short - term driving force is weak, and the main contract reference range is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - level expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [12]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro - level driving forces are insufficient, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. The supply - side pressure from steel mills' production schedules and social inventory remains, and demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to steel mills' production reduction and nickel - iron prices [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is in a situation of both supply and demand growth. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the main contract LC2601 has risen. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large enterprises, changes in demand after the peak season, and the possible acceleration of the release of upstream projects at high prices. Long positions established earlier can consider partial profit - taking [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, while the futures price decreased. The basis of some varieties changed significantly [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of different contracts showed various changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: National and regional production, as well as the national start - up rate, showed different trends. The production of some downstream products also changed, and the inventory of industrial silicon showed an overall upward trend [1]. Polysilicon - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, the futures price fell, and the arbitrage window closed. The component price gradually recovered [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly and monthly data showed that polysilicon production increased slightly, silicon wafer production decreased slightly, and the inventories of both increased [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price and Spread**: The price of aluminum increased slightly, and the price of alumina in some regions decreased. The spreads and premiums also changed [3][4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Alumina and electrolytic aluminum production increased in October. The start - up rates of aluminum processing industries showed different trends, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained stable [3][4]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of tin remained unchanged, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased significantly [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of different contracts showed various changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Tin ore imports decreased in September, while refined tin production increased in October. The import and export volumes of refined tin changed slightly [6]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of zinc increased slightly, and the spreads and import - export profits changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: Refined zinc production increased in October, and the start - up rates of zinc processing industries showed different trends. The inventory of LME increased, and the domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased [9]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: The price of copper increased slightly, and the spreads, premiums, and import - export profits changed [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: Electrolytic copper production and import volume decreased in October. The start - up rates of copper rod production showed different trends, and the inventory of different types of copper changed [10]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: The price of nickel increased slightly, and the spreads and import - export profits changed [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production and import volume increased. The inventory of SHFE and social inventory increased, while the LME inventory decreased [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of stainless steel decreased slightly, and the spreads changed [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly, the import volume increased, and the export volume decreased. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the spreads changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate increased in October, and the inventory decreased. The production capacity and start - up rate increased [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness when prices fall [2]. - For methanol, the futures market continues to decline weakly. High port inventory pressure persists, with limited destocking before the 01 contract. Supply remains high while demand shows little change. The market is trading on the weak - reality logic, and prices may further decline [3]. - For urea, prices are oscillating and rising from the bottom, showing relative resilience. Supply - side corporate profits are low, and production has slightly declined but is still high year - on - year. Demand has improved due to agricultural reserves and exports. With export policies and cost support, the downside is limited, and it's expected to oscillate and build a bottom, suggesting buying on dips [6][8]. - For rubber, the start - up load of tire enterprises has decreased, and semi - steel tire export orders have slowed. However, typhoons may increase supply, and the cancellation of warehouse receipts may benefit the January contract. Arbitrage strategies include going long on RU2601 and short on RU2609 or NR [10]. - For PVC, corporate profits are at a low level, supply is high with new installations coming online, and demand is weak both domestically and in exports. There is a risk of continuous inventory accumulation, and it's advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [12]. - For pure benzene and styrene, pure benzene prices are stable, while styrene prices are rising. Supply is under pressure, but the BZN spread has room to recover. Port inventory is decreasing, and prices may stop falling in the short term [15]. - For polyethylene, OPEC +'s plan to pause production growth may support oil prices. PE valuation has limited downside, but high warehouse receipts suppress the market. With inventory reduction and seasonal demand, prices may oscillate at a low level [18]. - For polypropylene, cost - side supply may increase, and supply pressure remains high. Although demand has rebounded seasonally, overall inventory pressure is high. Prices may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [20]. - For PX, the load is high, but downstream PTA maintenance is frequent, leading to expected inventory accumulation in November. However, there is support from aromatics blending and long - term supply - demand structure, and there may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium term [23]. - For PTA, supply - side maintenance has increased, but new installations will lead to inventory accumulation in November. Demand may remain high, but there is limited room for improvement. PTA processing fees are under pressure, but it may strengthen when PXN rises in the medium term [25]. - For ethylene glycol, domestic and overseas installations are operating at high loads, imports are increasing, and inventory is accumulating. Valuation is relatively low, and it's advisable to short on rallies [28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 7.70 yuan/barrel, a 1.66% decline, at 455.50 yuan/barrel. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.43 million barrels to 424.16 million barrels, a 0.80% decline; SPR increased by 0.53 million barrels to 410.93 million barrels, a 0.13% increase [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Taicang price increased by 3, Lunan by 5, and Inner Mongolia remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 3 yuan to 2016 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16. The 1 - 5 spread was - 137 [2]. - **Strategy**: The market is trading on the weak - reality logic, and prices may further decline. Be vigilant about price drops [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Shandong's spot price increased by 10, while Henan and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 2 yuan to 1665 yuan, with a basis of - 45. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 2 to - 70 [5]. - **Strategy**: Prices are oscillating and rising from the bottom, with limited downside. It's expected to oscillate and build a bottom, suggesting buying on dips [6][8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: As of November 20, 2025, the start - up load of full - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 60.57%, down 4.13 percentage points from last week and 2.01 percentage points from the same period last year. The start - up load of semi - steel tires was 72.77%, down 1.60 percentage points from last week and 6.01 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel tire export orders slowed. Typhoons may increase supply, and 110,000 tons of warehouse receipts will be cancelled on November 15 [10]. - **Strategy**: Arbitrage strategies include going long on RU2601 and short on RU2609 or NR [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 36 yuan to 4456 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4420 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 36. The 1 - 5 spread was - 311. The overall start - up rate was 78.5%, down 2.2%. Factory inventory was 322,000 tons, down 12,000 tons, and social inventory was 1.028 million tons, down 13,000 tons [11]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand situation is poor, and it's advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price was also stable, with a narrowing basis. The spot price of styrene increased, and the futures price also rose, with a strengthening basis. The upstream start - up rate was 69.25%, up 2.31%. Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 265,000 tons [14][15]. - **Strategy**: Port inventory is decreasing, and prices may stop falling in the short term [15]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6835 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6855 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 20 yuan/ton, weakening by 2 yuan. The upstream start - up rate was 83.77%, up 0.89%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 259,000 tons, and trader inventory increased by 50,000 tons [17]. - **Strategy**: Prices may oscillate at a low level [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6400 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6520 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 120 yuan/ton, strengthening by 34 yuan. The upstream start - up rate was 77.71%, down 0.68%. Overall inventory decreased [19]. - **Strategy**: Prices may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [20]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 40 yuan to 6830 yuan. PX CFR increased by 1 dollar to 833 dollars. The basis was - 22 yuan. The Chinese load was 86.8%, down 3%, and the Asian load was 78.5%, down 1.7%. Some installations were shut down or under maintenance [22]. - **Strategy**: There may be inventory accumulation in November, but there is support, and there may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium term [23]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 16 yuan to 4696 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 4630 yuan. The basis was - 69 yuan. The load was 72.1%, down 3.6%. Some installations were under maintenance, and downstream load increased [24]. - **Strategy**: Supply - side inventory may accumulate in November, and PTA processing fees are under pressure, but it may strengthen when PXN rises in the medium term [25]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 81 yuan to 3822 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 34 yuan to 3885 yuan. The basis was 32 yuan. The load was 70.7%, down 0.9%. Port inventory increased by 71,000 tons [27]. - **Strategy**: Inventory is accumulating, and it's advisable to short on rallies [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings 1.1 Bullish (One Star) - Propylene, Polyolefin, Plastic, PVC, Caustic Soda [1] 1.2 Bearish (Three Stars) - Ethylene Glycol [1] 1.3 Neutral (White Stars) - Styrene, PX, PTA, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Methanol, Glass, Soda Ash [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The futures of various chemical products show different trends. Some are affected by factors such as inventory, cost, demand, and international oil prices, with some facing supply - demand imbalances and price fluctuations [2][3][5] - Different product sectors have different influencing factors, including upstream raw material prices, downstream demand changes, and overseas supply uncertainties [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate widely around the 5 - day moving average. Low enterprise inventory supports prices, but downstream cost pressure and low international oil prices may drag down sentiment [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures have narrow - range fluctuations. For polyethylene, cost support weakens, supply pressure is high, and demand is limited, so prices will be weak. For polypropylene, inventory is transferred to the middle - link, but downstream demand is poor, and the supply - demand contradiction persists [2] 3.2 Polyester - Falling oil prices but firm PX support PTA prices. PTA has increased device maintenance due to poor efficiency, and terminal demand is weakening. For ethylene glycol, supply pressure is high, and the market is expected to be bearish. Short fiber has no new investment pressure but demand is expected to weaken, and bottle chip demand is declining with over - capacity as a long - term issue [3] 3.3 Pure Benzene - Styrene - The narrowing of the US - South Korea aromatic hydrocarbon spread makes the market focus on Asian aromatic hydrocarbon outflows. Pure benzene prices rebound strongly, but the sustainability of exports to the US is to be observed. Styrene futures rise, with cost support from pure benzene and supply reduction and increased export demand [5] 3.4 Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures are in low - level oscillations. Overseas device operation is high, and demand is expected to be weak. Urea futures fluctuate narrowly. Agricultural demand is weakening, but industrial demand is picking up, and supply remains high [6] 3.5 Chlor - Alkali - PVC continues to decline due to weakened cost support. Although exports to India may improve, the overall demand boost is limited. Caustic soda is in a downward trend, with cost support insufficient and downstream demand weak [7] 3.6 Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash continues to decline as the cost side moves down. The industry inventory decreases, and the supply - demand pattern is in surplus in the long - term. Glass also declines, with high intermediate - link inventory. Although cost support exists at the current price, it is recommended to wait and see [8]