1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the price trend [4]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to be in a low - level consolidation. A wait - and - see approach for single - side trading is recommended [7]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term due to reserve demand and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. With export policy and cost support, the price is expected to bottom out while oscillating. Buying on dips is recommended [11]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is currently taken. Short - term trading with quick entry and exit is advised, and partial closing of the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [15]. - For PVC, the industry has low comprehensive profits and high supply. With domestic demand entering the off - season and only some support from exports, the fundamental situation is poor. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium term [19]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low with large room for upward valuation repair. Before the first quarter of next year, going long on the non - integrated profit of styrene is recommended [22]. - For polyethylene, OPEC +'s plan to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026 may support oil prices. Although the downward space of PE valuation is limited, high warehouse receipts suppress the market. Buying the LL5 - 9 spread on dips is recommended [25]. - For polypropylene, with expected supply surplus in the cost side and high inventory pressure, there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The market may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [28]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. With a neutral valuation, opportunities for going long on dips should be watched [31]. - For PTA, the supply has high maintenance in the short term, and demand will decline due to the off - season. PTA processing fees have limited upward space, and opportunities for going long on dips based on expectations should be watched [34]. - For ethylene glycol, although the domestic supply situation has improved due to unexpected maintenance, the overall load is still high and imports are at a high level. The port inventory build - up cycle will continue. Attention should be paid to the risk of a market reversal caused by further increases in maintenance [36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main crude oil futures on INE closed up 8.30 yuan/barrel, a 1.92% increase, at 440.90 yuan/barrel. China's crude oil weekly data showed that the arrival inventory increased by 0.29 million barrels to 206.16 million barrels, a 0.14% month - on - month increase [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the price trend [4]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu decreased by 15 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 5 yuan/ton, and in Henan by 10 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 1 yuan/ton, closing at 2156 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was - 179 yuan [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to be in a low - level consolidation. A wait - and - see approach for single - side trading is recommended [7]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan/ton, and in Hubei by 10 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 23 yuan/ton, closing at 1721 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was - 31 yuan/ton [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term due to reserve demand and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. With export policy and cost support, the price is expected to bottom out while oscillating. Buying on dips is recommended [11]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were in an oscillating consolidation. The buying demand for winter storage was a bullish factor. The long - side believed in limited rubber production growth in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases, and improved demand expectations in China, while the short - side cited uncertain macro expectations, off - season demand, and potential under - performance of supply benefits [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A neutral approach is currently taken. Short - term trading with quick entry and exit is advised, and partial closing of the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [15]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract increased by 147 yuan, closing at 4738 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4420 (+80) yuan/ton, the basis was - 318 (-67) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 128 (+1) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a 2.1% month - on - month decrease. Factory inventory was 32.9 million tons (-1.6), and social inventory was 105.7 million tons (-0.3) [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry has low comprehensive profits and high supply. With domestic demand entering the off - season and only some support from exports, the fundamental situation is poor. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium term [19]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5315 yuan/ton with no change, and the active contract closed at 5425 yuan/ton with no change. The spot price of styrene increased by 50 yuan/ton to 6600 yuan/ton, and the active contract closed at 6509 yuan/ton, a 31 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 69.13%, a 1.02% increase, and the inventory at Jiangsu ports increased by 0.46 million tons to 13.93 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products decreased by 1.67% to 40.60% [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low with large room for upward valuation repair. Before the first quarter of next year, going long on the non - integrated profit of styrene is recommended [22]. Polyolefin (Polyethylene and Polypropylene) Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract of polyethylene closed at 6296 yuan/ton, a 56 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6300 yuan/ton with no change. The upstream operating rate was 82.34%, a 0.76% month - on - month increase. The production enterprise inventory increased by 1.72 million tons to 48.78 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.20 million tons to 3.56 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 42.45%, a 0.55% month - on - month decrease [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC +'s plan to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026 may support oil prices. Although the downward space of PE valuation is limited, high warehouse receipts suppress the market. Buying the LL5 - 9 spread on dips is recommended [25]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract of polypropylene closed at 6158 yuan/ton, a 39 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6250 yuan/ton with no change. The upstream operating rate was 78.05%, a 0.31% month - on - month increase. The production enterprise inventory increased by 0.07 million tons to 53.78 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 0.9 million tons to 19.83 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.07 million tons to 6.75 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.8%, a 0.19% month - on - month decrease [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With expected supply surplus in the cost side and high inventory pressure, there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The market may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [28]. Polyester (PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol) PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract increased by 44 yuan, closing at 7302 yuan. The CFR price of PX increased by 4 dollars to 896 dollars. The Chinese PX operating rate was 88.1% with no change, and the Asian operating rate was 78.9%, a 0.4% month - on - month decrease. In December, South Korea's PX exports to China in the first and middle ten - days were 28.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8 million tons. The inventory at the end of October was 407.4 million tons, a 4.8 - million - ton month - on - month increase [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. With a neutral valuation, opportunities for going long on dips should be watched [31]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract increased by 42 yuan, closing at 5082 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 70 yuan to 4955 yuan. The PTA operating rate was 73.2%, a 0.5% month - on - month decrease. The downstream operating rate was 91.2% with no change. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on December 12 was 215 million tons, a 1.9 - million - ton month - on - month decrease [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply has high maintenance in the short term, and demand will decline due to the off - season. PTA processing fees have limited upward space, and opportunities for going long on dips based on expectations should be watched [34]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract decreased by 112 yuan, closing at 3623 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 50 yuan to 3563 yuan. The ethylene glycol operating rate was 72%, a 2% month - on - month increase. The port inventory was 71.6 million tons, a 3 - million - ton month - on - month increase [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the domestic supply situation has improved due to unexpected maintenance, the overall load is still high and imports are at a high level. The port inventory build - up cycle will continue. Attention should be paid to the risk of a market reversal caused by further increases in maintenance [36].

| 业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监 午可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月20日 | | | | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品和 | 12月18日 | 12月17日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | 9200 | 9200 | O | 0.00% | | | 基差(通氧S15530基准) | ર્ | 730 | -175 | -23.97% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 9650 | 9650 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 基差 (Sl4210基准) | 205 | 380 | -175 | -46.05% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8750 | 8750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | | 1080 | -175 | -16.20% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合药 | 12月18日 | 12月17日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the price trend [3]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. Import arrivals will remain high, and port olefin plants have maintenance plans. The overall supply is high, and the fundamentals are under pressure. It's expected to trade in a low - level range, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - sided trading [6]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short - term due to reserve needs and higher compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. With export policy and cost support, it's expected to build a bottom in a range. Buying on dips is recommended [10]. - For natural rubber, a neutral approach is taken, suggesting short - term trading and holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [15]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. Although there is a short - term emotional rebound, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium - term [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, it's advisable to go long on non - integrated styrene profits before the first quarter of next year, as styrene non - integrated profits are relatively low and there is room for upward valuation repair [20]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It's recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [23]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the oversupply situation in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. - For PX, it's expected to see a slight inventory build - up in December. With a neutral valuation, opportunities for going long on dips can be considered [28]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase after January, and the processing fee is under pressure. With limited upside for the processing fee, opportunities for going long on expected trading can be watched [30]. - For ethylene glycol, although the domestic supply situation has improved slightly due to unexpected maintenance, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory build - up cycle will continue. There is a risk of a rebound due to potential further increases in maintenance [32]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 5.10 yuan/barrel, or 1.20%, to 429.40 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 48.00 yuan/ton, or 2.01%, to 2439.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 46.00 yuan/ton, or 1.59%, to 2931.00 yuan/ton. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 1.27 million barrels to 424.42 million barrels, while SPR increased by 0.25 million barrels to 412.17 million barrels. Gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and aviation kerosene inventories all increased [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 5 yuan/ton, in Henan by - 5 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by - 17.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 18 yuan/ton to 2174 yuan/ton, and MTO profit was - 198 yuan [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market enters short - term consolidation. The port inventory is decreasing, but future pressure remains. The supply is high, and the fundamentals are under pressure. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - sided trading [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by - 10 yuan/ton, in Henan by 0 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, in Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu by 0 yuan/ton, in Shanxi by 20 yuan/ton, and in the Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was - 38 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 62 yuan/ton to 1708 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short - term, and supply is expected to decline seasonally. With export policy and cost support, it's expected to build a bottom in a range. Buying on dips is recommended [10]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were oscillating. Exchange RU inventory warrants were low, and the buying demand for winter storage was a bullish factor. As of December 18, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.66%, up 1.08 percentage points from last week and 2.56 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.76%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 5.93 percentage points from the same period last year. The total social inventory of natural rubber in China was 115.2 million tons as of December 14, 2025, up 2.9 million tons, or 2.6% [12][14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A neutral approach is taken, suggesting short - term trading and holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [15]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 28 yuan to 4708 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4430 (+30) yuan/ton, and the basis was - 278 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 130 (- 3) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.4%, down 0.5%. Factory inventory was 34.4 million tons (+1.8), and social inventory was 105.9 million tons (unchanged) [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. Although there is a short - term emotional rebound, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium - term [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5290 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5381 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active styrene contract was 6385 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 68.11%, down 0.74%. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 1.21 million tons to 13.47 million tons [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on non - integrated styrene profits before the first quarter of next year, as styrene non - integrated profits are relatively low and there is room for upward valuation repair [20]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 6476 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6510 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.58%, down 0.92%. The production enterprise inventory was 48.78 million tons, up 1.72 million tons, and the trader inventory was 3.56 million tons, down 0.20 million tons [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. Short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 6279 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6275 yuan/ton, unchanged. The upstream operating rate was 77.74%, down 1.66%. The production enterprise inventory was 53.78 million tons, up 0.07 million tons, the trader inventory was 19.83 million tons, down 0.9 million tons, and the port inventory was 6.75 million tons, down 0.07 million tons [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the oversupply situation in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. Polyester PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 90 yuan to 6862 yuan. The PX CFR price rose 6 dollars to 840 dollars. The Chinese PX load was 88.1%, down 0.1%, and the Asian load was 79.3%, up 0.7%. The PTA load was 73.2%, down 0.5%. In early December, South Korea's PX exports to China were 13.9 million tons, down 0.5 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of October was 407.4 million tons, up 4.8 million tons month - on - month [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It's expected to see a slight inventory build - up in December. With a neutral valuation, opportunities for going long on dips can be considered [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 64 yuan to 4748 yuan. The East China spot price rose 45 yuan to 4650 yuan. The PTA load was 73.2%, down 0.5%. The social inventory (excluding credit warrants) was 215 million tons as of December 12, down 1.9 million tons [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is expected to increase after January, and the processing fee is under pressure. With limited upside for the processing fee, opportunities for going long on expected trading can be watched [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 9 yuan to 3767 yuan. The East China spot price was unchanged at 3667 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 72%, up 2%. The port inventory was 84.4 million tons, up 2.5 million tons [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the domestic supply situation has improved slightly due to unexpected maintenance, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory build - up cycle will continue. There is a risk of a rebound due to potential further increases in maintenance [32].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices stabilized, while futures prices rose and then fell. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main range between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. If production drops significantly, it may reach 10000 yuan/ton; if polysilicon production cuts are large and industrial silicon production cuts fall short of expectations, the price may drop to 7500 yuan/ton. [1] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures prices continued to rise strongly, with a large premium over the spot average. The supply is excessive, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. If production cuts are significant, the futures may remain strong; if not, the high premium may converge to the spot price. [2] Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand in some regions shows resilience. Tin prices are expected to remain strong within the year. [4] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market was affected by news, with the main contract rising. The fundamentals have not changed much, with both supply and demand being strong. The price may remain strong in the short - term, but there is a risk of a pullback. [5] Nickel - The nickel market was affected by Indonesian nickel ore news and macro factors. The fundamentals are relatively loose, and the price may repair slightly in the short - term, with the main reference range of 112000 - 116000 yuan/ton. [7] Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market was affected by low valuations and nickel price rebounds. It is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, with the main operating range of 12200 - 12800 yuan/ton. [9] Zinc - The zinc market is affected by macro - level risk aversion. The supply is gradually changing from loose to tight, and the demand has a structural improvement. The short - term Shanghai zinc price may be stronger than the London zinc price. [13] Copper - The copper market is affected by macro factors and supply - side concerns. The price bottom has shifted up, and short - term price fluctuations may be intensified by macro events. [14] Aluminum - The alumina market has a pattern of high supply and high inventory, and the price is expected to remain in a bottom - level oscillation. The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract in the range of 21700 - 22400 yuan/ton. [17] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy market is in a game between strong cost support and weak demand. It is expected to remain in a high - level narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. [18] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of East China oxygen - containing SI5530, SI4210, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged on December 17 compared to December 16. The basis of various types decreased. [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of most contracts changed significantly, with some showing large decreases or increases. [1] - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17%, and the national operating rate decreased by 4.84%. The production and operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly, while those in Xinjiang increased slightly. [1] - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan factory inventories and social inventories increased slightly, while the change in warehouse receipt inventory was zero. [1] Polysilicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average prices of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis decreased significantly. [2] - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The main contract price rose, and the inter - month spreads of some contracts changed significantly. [2] - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 1.67%, and monthly polysilicon production decreased by 14.48%. [2] - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased. [2] Tin - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 1.65%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 12.00%. [4] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed significantly. [4] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, and SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%. [4] - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory, social inventory, and LME inventory increased. [4] Lithium Carbonate - **Prices and Basis**: The prices of various types of lithium carbonate and related raw materials increased to varying degrees. [5] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [5] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium carbonate production and demand increased, and the inventory decreased. [5] Nickel - **Prices and Basis**: The prices of various types of nickel increased slightly, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel continued to rise. [7] - **Cost of Electrolytic Nickel**: The cost of some methods of producing electrolytic nickel changed. [7] - **New Energy Material Prices**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, while the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased slightly. [7] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [7] - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel production and imports decreased, while domestic inventories increased. [7] Stainless Steel - **Prices and Basis**: The spot price of stainless steel increased slightly, and the futures - spot price difference decreased. [9] - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of some raw materials remained stable, while the price of high - carbon ferrochrome increased slightly. [9] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [9] - **Fundamental Data**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel production decreased slightly, and exports decreased significantly. [9] Zinc - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.69%, and the import loss increased. [13] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [13] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%, and the operating rates of some downstream industries changed. [13] - **Inventory Changes**: Chinese zinc ingot social inventory decreased, while LME inventory increased. [13] Copper - **Prices and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.49%, and the premium decreased. [14] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [14] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and the operating rates of some copper - related industries decreased. [14] - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic social inventory increased, while the bonded area inventory decreased. [14] Aluminum Alumina - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of alumina in various regions decreased slightly. [17] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, and the operating rate increased slightly. [17] - **Inventory Changes**: Alumina plant inventory, port inventory, and electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory increased. [17] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.55%. [17] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased. [17] - **Inventory Changes**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased slightly. [17] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of various types of cast aluminum alloy increased slightly. [18] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [18] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the production of regenerated and primary aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the operating rates of related industries increased. [18] - **Inventory Changes**: The social inventory of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly. [18]

Group 1 - Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.404 million barrels, reaching a four-week low of 24.658 million barrels [1] - Light distillate oil inventory increased by 65,000 barrels, reaching a 17-week high of 1.506 million barrels [1] - Middle distillate oil inventory rose by 71,000 barrels, reaching a two-week high of 843,100 barrels [1]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价窄幅震荡，国内精炼铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，11 月美国非农新增 | | | | 就业 6.4 万人，高于市场预期，但 10 月就业数据被大幅下修，失业率升至 4.6%，为 2021 | | | | 年以来最高水平，就业市场正在降温得到美官方数据确认，但能否足以改变美联储对 1 | | | | 月降息的看法仍具有不确定性，但明年 1 月降息概率再回升。另外，美国 12 月 Markit | | | | 综合 PMI 初值 53，低于预期 53.9 和前值 54.2，其中制造业和服务业均低于预期，订单 | | | 铜 | 增长放缓，价格指数攀升。国内来看，中央财办有关负责人表示，扩大内需是明年排在 | | | | 首位的重点任务，明年继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。库存方面，LME 铜库存维持 165875 | | | | 吨；COMEX 铜仓单增加 1652 吨至 412444 吨；SHFE 铜仓单增加 3558 吨至 45784 | 吨； | ...

伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周伦锡库存整体先降后增，本周库存继续累积，最新库存 水平为3815吨，增至近十个月新高。 （文华综合） 2023年以来LME和上期所锡库存对比 以下为2025年12月以来LME和上期所锡库存数据：（单位：吨） 注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 | 日期 | LME | 上期所 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/16 | 3,815 | | | 2025/12/15 | 3, 795 | | | 2025/12/12 | 3, 670 | 7, 391 | | 2025/12/11 | 3, 695 | | | 2025/12/10 | 3, 655 | | | 2025/12/9 | 3.050 | | | 2025/12/8 | 3, 075 | | | 2025/12/5 | 3, 085 | 6, 865 | | 2025/12/4 | 3.175 | | | 2025/12/3 | 3, 195 | | | 2025/12/2 | 3. 145 | | | 2025/12/1 | 3, ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: Neutral [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas inventory surge leads to a shift from premium to discount, closing China's zinc ingot export window and suppressing zinc ingot prices. Domestic downstream replenishment enthusiasm increases as absolute prices fall, with market trading activity rising and spot premiums continuing to recover. The downward trend of mine TC persists, with domestic high - altitude mines reducing production and domestic ore supply decreasing, while smelter procurement demand remains strong. The comprehensive smelting losses of smelters widen, and December's supply may still be lower than expected. Short - term consumption resilience limits the depth of zinc price corrections, and long - term re - inflation is possible in the interest rate cut cycle [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$31.61/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,180 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot premium of 85 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,090 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 20 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 23,090 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 5 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On December 16, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,310 yuan/ton, closed at 23,030 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton from the previous day. The trading volume was 138,540 lots, and the open interest was 73,193 lots. The highest price reached 23,345 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,935 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of December 16, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 125,700 tons, down 2,600 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 95,550 tons, up 31,075 tons from the previous day [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Fed cut rates as expected, gold price regained strength, recommended to go long; silver overseas market was tight, but domestic inventory had accumulated for days, recommended to take profit on long positions temporarily [1] - Base Metals: - Copper: Wait for low - buying opportunities [2] - Aluminum: Expected to fluctuate due to overseas supply disruptions, warm macro - environment and low inventory [2] - Alumina: Faced downward pressure, follow the impact of Guinea's election on the ore end [2][3] - Zinc: Go long at low prices and be cautious about chasing highs [3] - Lead: Operate in a range, buy low and sell high [3] - Industrial Silicon: Observe as the market was in a weak oscillation with no clear direction [3] - Lithium Carbonate: Observe in the short - term, pay attention to the resumption of production rhythm and year - end energy storage policy guidance [3][4] - Polysilicon: Expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 50,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton [4] - Tin: Wait for low - buying opportunities [4] - Black Industry: - Rebar: Mainly observe, try to short the RB05 contract [5] - Iron Ore: Mainly observe [5][6] - Coking Coal: Mainly observe [6] - Agricultural Products: - Soybean Meal: US soybeans were weak, domestic market was near - strong and far - weak [6] - Corn: Spot price was expected to weaken, futures price to oscillate and fall [6] - Edible Oils: Oscillate weakly and show variety differentiation [6] - Cotton: Buy low with a price reference range of 13,800 - 14,200 yuan/ton [6] - Eggs: Futures price was expected to oscillate [7] - Pigs: Futures price was expected to oscillate [7] - Energy and Chemicals: - LLDPE: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [8] - PVC: Conduct reverse arbitrage due to weak supply - demand [8] - Glass: Conduct reverse arbitrage due to weak supply - demand [8][9] - PP: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [9] - Crude Oil: Be used as a short - position configuration, short at high prices after geopolitical premiums [9] - Styrene: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on styrene or conduct pure benzene reverse arbitrage and long styrene profit in the medium - long term [9] - Soda Ash: Conduct reverse arbitrage due to weak supply - demand [10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold) - Market Performance: Gold price oscillated, international gold price basically closed flat [1] - Fundamentals: US November non - farm data was good, but unemployment rate soared; Fed had internal differences; domestic gold ETF had a small inflow, and inventories in different places changed [1] - Trading Strategy: Go long [1] Base Metals Copper - Market Performance: Copper price oscillated weakly [2] - Fundamentals: US non - farm data and unemployment rate affected the dollar index; supply was tight, demand had price differences, and the London structure changed [2] - Trading Strategy: Wait for low - buying opportunities [2] Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.34% [2] - Fundamentals: High - load production on the supply side, slightly decreased weekly aluminum product start - up rate on the demand side [2] - Trading Strategy: Expected to oscillate [2] Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.16% [2] - Fundamentals: Stable production capacity on the supply side, high - load production of electrolytic aluminum plants on the demand side [2] - Trading Strategy: Faced downward pressure, follow Guinea's election impact [2][3] Zinc - Market Performance: The closing price of the SHFE zinc 2601 contract decreased by 1.71% [3] - Fundamentals: Macro - warming and supply tightening; overseas and domestic supply issues; demand was differentiated; import window was closed [3] - Trading Strategy: Go long at low prices, be cautious about chasing highs [3] Lead - Market Performance: The closing price of the SHFE lead 2601 contract decreased by 1.09% [3] - Fundamentals: Mild supply - demand, slightly decreased smelter start - up rate, slightly increased battery start - up rate, possible inventory accumulation [3] - Trading Strategy: Operate in a range [3] Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract increased by 0.18% [3] - Fundamentals: Increased furnace - opening quantity on the supply side, social inventory accumulated; demand in different industries had different trends [3] - Trading Strategy: Observe as the market was in a weak oscillation [3] Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: LC2605 decreased by 0.46% [3] - Fundamentals: Increased lithium concentrate price, increased production, decreased demand in some materials; expected to maintain destocking [3][4] - Trading Strategy: Observe in the short - term [3][4] Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract increased by 0.18% [4] - Fundamentals: Stable production on the supply side, decreased demand in related industries; expected inventory accumulation [4] - Trading Strategy: Expected to fluctuate widely [4] Tin - Market Performance: Tin price oscillated weakly [4] - Fundamentals: Tight supply, increased supply from Myanmar; demand had delivery and premium situations [4] - Trading Strategy: Wait for low - buying opportunities [4] Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The main contract increased by 7 yuan/ton [5] - Fundamentals: Decreased inventory, weak supply - demand, structural differentiation; high - loss of steel mills, possible production reduction [5] - Trading Strategy: Observe, try to short the RB05 contract [5] Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main contract increased by 8.5 yuan/ton [5] - Fundamentals: Increased shipment, decreased port inventory; weak supply - demand, decreased iron - water production; marginal weakening of supply - demand [5][6] - Trading Strategy: Observe [5][6] Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main contract increased by 4 yuan/ton [6] - Fundamentals: Decreased iron - water production, deteriorated steel mill profits; first - round coke price cut implemented, second - round proposed; inventory was at a neutral level [6] - Trading Strategy: Observe [6] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans continued to decline [6] - Fundamentals: Slight reduction in the near - term supply, large supply in the far - term in South America; strong US soybean crushing and slow export [6] - Trading Strategy: US soybeans were weak, domestic market was near - strong and far - weak [6] Corn - Market Performance: Futures price oscillated narrowly, spot price slightly decreased [6] - Fundamentals: Low channel inventory, short - term supply shortage, but downstream losses and reduced procurement enthusiasm [6] - Trading Strategy: Spot price to weaken, futures price to oscillate and fall [6] Edible Oils - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil continued to fall [6] - Fundamentals: Seasonal production reduction but year - on - year increase on the supply side; weak export on the demand side; near - term inventory accumulation [6] - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly and show variety differentiation [6] Cotton - Market Performance: US cotton futures price started to fall, Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to rise [6] - Fundamentals: Slightly bearish US cotton export data, Brazilian cotton export increased; strong buying support for Zhengzhou cotton but weak yarn price increase [6] - Trading Strategy: Buy low in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 yuan/ton [6] Eggs - Market Performance: Futures price was weak, spot price increased [7] - Fundamentals: Decreased laying - hen inventory, slowed de - capacity; low price could drive demand, but high price reduced downstream purchasing willingness [7] - Trading Strategy: Futures price to oscillate [7] Pigs - Market Performance: Futures price oscillated, spot price slightly decreased [7] - Fundamentals: Sufficient supply, seasonal increase in demand; increased southern curing demand, expected increase in slaughter volume [7] - Trading Strategy: Futures price to oscillate [7] Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly [8] - Fundamentals: New device production and some device shutdowns on the supply side, reduced import expected; off - season for downstream demand [8] - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [8] PVC - Market Performance: V05 increased by 1.9% [8] - Fundamentals: Boosted by macro - sentiment, increased supply, decreased downstream start - up rate, high social inventory [8] - Trading Strategy: Conduct reverse arbitrage [8] Glass - Market Performance: FG05 decreased by 0.2% [8] - Fundamentals: Decreased price, increased production reduction, seasonal inventory decline, weak supply - demand, low valuation [8][9] - Trading Strategy: Conduct reverse arbitrage [8][9] PP - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly [9] - Fundamentals: New device production and some device shutdowns on the supply side, opened export window; decreased downstream start - up rate [9] - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [9] Crude Oil - Market Performance: Oil price continuously fell to a five - year low [9] - Fundamentals: Supply was affected by sanctions and production increases; demand was in the off - season; inventory was above the five - year average [9] - Trading Strategy: Be used as a short - position configuration, short at high prices after geopolitical premiums [9] Styrene - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly [9] - Fundamentals: High pure benzene and styrene inventories; decreased downstream demand [9] - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on styrene or conduct pure benzene reverse arbitrage and long styrene profit in the medium - long term [9] Soda Ash - Market Performance: sa05 increased by 1.4% [10] - Fundamentals: New device production, price decline, high inventory, weak downstream demand [10] - Trading Strategy: Conduct reverse arbitrage [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1][9] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1][14] - L: Bearish consolidation [1][19] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1][23] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1][27] - PTA: Cautiously avoid shorting [3][31] - Ethylene glycol: Short on rebounds [3][34] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [3][37] - Urea: Cautiously avoid shorting [3][42] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish continuation [7][54] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [7][58] Report's Core Views - The geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine is easing, and the crude oil market is in an oversupply situation during the off - season, leading to downward pressure on oil prices [1][11] - The price of LPG is dragged down by the cost of crude oil, and the supply - demand situation shows that the refinery's production is increasing, and there is inventory pressure [1][17] - For L, the basis is weakening, the supply is sufficient, and the demand from the agricultural film market is declining, with inventory removal pressure [1][22] - PP needs to pay attention to the dynamics of PDH devices, and the industry chain faces high inventory removal pressure [1][26] - PVC has an oversupply contradiction before concentrated maintenance in the upstream and mid - stream, but the cost of raw materials is falling [1][30] - PTA has a relatively tight short - term supply - demand balance, but there is an inventory accumulation expectation in January, and attention should be paid to buying on dips [3][32] - Ethylene glycol has a short - term supply improvement, but there is an inventory accumulation expectation in December, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [3][35] - Methanol's port inventory is decreasing, but the fundamental situation remains weak, with supply pressure and weakening demand [3][39] - Urea has a relatively loose domestic fundamental situation, with high supply and limited demand sustainability, and attention should be paid to exports [3][43] - The price of natural gas has reached a high level, with increasing upward pressure, and the supply and demand situation is affected by geopolitics and seasonal factors [6] - Asphalt's price is affected by the weakening of crude oil cost and the supply - demand situation, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in South America [7][52] - Glass has a situation of weak supply reduction and weak demand, and the inventory of the upstream and mid - stream is still high [7][57] - Soda ash has a loose supply pattern, with high inventory and insufficient demand support [7][61] Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices weakened, with WTI down 1.34%, Brent down 0.92%, and SC down 0.30% [10] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical support for oil prices is decreasing, and the off - season supply is in excess, with global and US crude oil inventories increasing [11] - **Fundamentals**: Russia's oil production increased slightly in November, and the IEA expects global crude oil demand to increase in 2025 and 2026. US crude oil and product inventories have different trends [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - and long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and the price is in a low - price range. Short - term trends are weak, and partial profit - taking on short positions is recommended [13] LPG - **Market Review**: On December 15, the PG main contract closed at 4152 yuan/ton, up 0.58% month - on - month [16] - **Basic Logic**: The price is linked to crude oil, with cost - side negatives. Supply is increasing, and there is inventory pressure [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - and long - term, the price has room for compression. Short positions should be held, and attention should be paid to the range of [4150 - 4250] [18] L - **Market Review**: The prices of L contracts increased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [20] - **Basic Logic**: The basis is weakening, supply is sufficient, and there is inventory removal pressure [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions, and wait for rebounds to short. Pay attention to the range of [6500 - 6650] [22] PP - **Market Review**: The prices of PP contracts increased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [24] - **Basic Logic**: Pay attention to PDH device dynamics, and the industry chain faces high inventory removal pressure [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions, and wait for rebounds to short. Consider going long on PP processing fees or shorting MTO05. Pay attention to the range of [6200 - 6350] [26] PVC - **Market Review**: The prices of PVC contracts increased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [28] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of raw materials is falling, but the oversupply contradiction persists before concentrated maintenance [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term, and wait for inventory reduction to go long in the long term. Pay attention to the range of [4250 - 4400] [30] PTA - **Market Review**: The prices of PTA contracts decreased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [31] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure is relieved due to high - intensity maintenance, but downstream demand is expected to weaken, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in December [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on TA05 at low levels. Pay attention to the range of [4650 - 4710] [33] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The prices of ethylene glycol contracts had different trends, with changes in trading volume and open interest [34] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas device loads are decreasing, demand is expected to weaken, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in December [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of [3580 - 3650] [36] Methanol - **Market Review**: No specific market review content provided - **Basic Logic**: The port inventory is decreasing, but the supply pressure remains, and the demand is slightly weakening [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The main contract is changing hands, and it is expected to be weakly volatile. Pay attention to MA05 [41] Urea - **Market Review**: The prices of urea contracts decreased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [42] - **Basic Logic**: The supply is relatively sufficient, the demand is short - term good but not sustainable, and the inventory is still at a high level [43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously short, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long on UR05. Pay attention to the range of [1635 - 1655] [45] Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On December 15, the NG main contract closed at 4.113 dollars/million British thermal units, down 2.79% month - on - month [48] - **Basic Logic**: The demand is in the peak season, but the price has reached a high level, and the supply is relatively sufficient [49] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The demand has support, but the price is under pressure. Pay attention to the range of [3.860 - 4.239] [49] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On December 15, the BU main contract closed at 2952 yuan/ton, up 0.37% month - on - month [51] - **Basic Logic**: The price is affected by the weakening of crude oil cost and the supply - demand situation [52] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially take profit on short positions due to the uncertainty in South America. Pay attention to the range of [2850 - 2950] [53] Glass - **Market Review**: The prices of glass contracts increased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [55] - **Basic Logic**: The supply is difficult to shrink significantly, the demand is weak, and the inventory of the upstream and mid - stream is still high [57] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short in the short term and wait for rebounds to short in the long term. Pay attention to the range of [930 - 980] [57] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The prices of soda ash contracts increased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [59] - **Basic Logic**: The supply is loose, the demand support is insufficient, and the inventory is still at a high level [61] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short in the short term and wait for rebounds to short in the long term. Pay attention to the range of [1080 - 1130] [61]