Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative impact of US tariff policies is gradually emerging, international trade activities are slowing down, and the global economy will still face downward pressure. The Fed's monetary policy has returned to the interest rate cut cycle, but the reduction of the balance sheet continues, which may lead to a shortage of US dollar liquidity and financial de - leveraging. The stock markets of major developed countries such as Europe and the United States are at historical highs, and asset prices are at risk of being re - evaluated. - China's economic recovery foundation is not solid, with fixed - asset investment growth continuing to decline and consumption growth slowing marginally. Only industrial production remains at a high level. Macroeconomic policies need to strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment, and the proactive fiscal policy is being accelerated, while the monetary policy will remain moderately loose. - In the fourth quarter, the valuation of stock indices will be supported by risk appetite at the denominator end, but stock indices should still be treated with a wide - range oscillation mindset before corporate profits improve significantly. The restart of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle will narrow the Sino - US interest rate spread, giving more room for China's monetary policy, and the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds is expected to decline. The uncertainty of US tariff policies is gradually fading, and the international geopolitical situation is expected to ease. Gold is at risk of a deep adjustment [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Overseas Macroeconomic Outlook - **Market Performance in Q3 2025**: Global stock markets rose in resonance, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq reaching new highs. Commodities such as coal, steel, and non - ferrous metals rebounded. Gold broke through upwards after 4 months of consolidation, with London spot gold approaching $3,800 per ounce, up more than 40% for the year [4]. - **Outlook for Q4**: The negative impact of US tariff policies will further appear, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice in Q4, and the global economy will face downward pressure. If the US job market weakens further, the Fed may shift from "preventive" to "relief" interest rate cuts. Global stock markets may face asset value re - evaluation risks [5]. - **US Situation**: Employment pressure is increasing, and the Fed's monetary policy has returned to the interest rate cut cycle. In August, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, the consumer confidence index dropped to 58.2, new non - farm employment was 22,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September, and the dot - plot shows two more cuts this year [7][9]. - **European Situation**: The European Central Bank suspended interest rate cuts in September, and the benchmark interest rate is approaching the neutral level. The eurozone economy has warmed up, with the manufacturing PMI returning to the expansion range, low unemployment, and stable inflation [11][14]. - **Japanese Situation**: The Japanese economy maintains a moderate recovery, and the central bank maintains a slow interest rate hike rhythm. In August, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.9, the consumer confidence index reached a new high, the unemployment rate dropped to 2.3%, and inflation remained above 2% [16][19]. Domestic Economic Situation Analysis - **Overall Situation in Q3 2025**: Affected by US tariff policies, China's economic downward pressure has emerged again, with fixed - asset investment declining, consumption growth slowing, and only industrial production remaining high. The foundation of economic recovery is not solid, and demand is insufficient [21]. - **Negative Impact of US Tariff Policies**: In August, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.4, still in the contraction range. From January to August, fixed - asset investment growth slowed, industrial production slowed slightly but remained high, consumption growth slowed, CPI turned negative, PPI decline narrowed, and foreign trade growth slowed [23][25]. - **Fiscal and Monetary Policies**: The proactive fiscal policy is being accelerated, with super - long - term special treasury bonds and local special bonds mostly issued. The monetary policy will remain loose, and there is more room for operation with the Fed's interest rate cuts. Deposit rates are expected to be cut, and there may be a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut in Q4 [31][33]. Asset Allocation - **Stock Indices**: Corporate profits are still declining, and the inventory cycle is in the active de - stocking stage. There is still room for the risk - free rate to decline, and there are many positive factors affecting risk appetite. In Q4, stock indices are likely to oscillate widely, and the key is whether corporate profits can improve significantly [38][39]. - **Bonds**: The negative impact of US tariff policies is emerging, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice. The Sino - US interest rate spread will narrow, and China's monetary policy has more room. The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds may decline [40]. - **Gold**: In the medium - to - long - term, gold prices depend on the US dollar and real interest rates. In Q4, as trade policy uncertainty decreases and geopolitical tensions ease, gold may face a deep adjustment due to factors such as the strengthening of the US dollar and high real interest rates [41][42].

Group 1 - Gold prices continue to reach historical highs, with London gold spot prices breaking through $3700, $3720, and $3740 per ounce, peaking at $3748.88 on September 22 [2] - As of September 23, London gold spot prices reached a maximum of $3759.16 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures hit $3793.7 per ounce, and Shanghai Gold Exchange Au99.99 reached 850 yuan per gram [2] - Since the beginning of 2025, international gold prices have increased by nearly 43%, while domestic gold prices have risen by approximately 38% [3] Group 2 - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's hedging research team indicates that the ongoing weakness in the U.S. labor market and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts provide upward momentum for gold prices, supported by geopolitical conflicts and long-term dollar credit concerns [5] - Analysts suggest that the current rise in gold prices has outpaced fundamental factors, leading to increased short-term volatility, but the long-term trend remains below previous gold price upcycles [5] - As of September 22, the total scale of domestic commodity gold ETFs reached 155.15 billion yuan, a 120% increase from the end of last year, indicating a recovery in net inflows due to rising gold prices [5] Group 3 - On September 22, all 11 gold concept stocks in the A-share market saw gains, with notable increases in Zhongjin Gold and Xiaocheng Technology exceeding 9% [6] - The significant profit growth in the semi-annual reports of gold mining companies is attributed to rising gold prices and increased production, leading to a potential valuation recovery for gold stocks [6] - Silver prices also reached a near 14-year high on September 22, with expectations of further increases as silver benefits from both financial attributes and industrial demand [6]

当地时间9月17日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率下调25个基点至4.00%-4.25%。美联储预测中值显示， 2025年将再降息50个基点。这意味着美元汇率可能进入新一轮波动期，对在美华人的跨境资金流动产生 直接影响。 美联储降息直接触发美元指数走弱，离岸人民币对美元汇率在9月18日短线拉升至7.08，创十个月新 高。这一变化对"赚美元、汇人民币"的在美华人形成显著影响：以每月汇款1万美元为例，若汇率从 7.20降至7.08，收款人将少得1200元人民币。更值得关注的是，美联储暗示年底可能再降息50个基点， 持续的美元贬值预期将进一步放大汇率波动风险。 与此同时，传统银行的跨境汇款服务在降息周期下面临"双重挤压"。一方面，中美利差收窄导致银行外 汇业务利润空间压缩，部分机构通过提高隐性汇率加点转嫁成本；另一方面，监管合规成本持续上升， 部分汇款需提交亲属关系证明、资金用途说明等文件，流程复杂度增加30%以上。这种"汇率缩水+成本 上升"的双重压力，使得传统汇款渠道的性价比进一步下降。 二、降息周期下的跨境汇款新变局 在当前经济环境下，传统跨境汇款服务的固有缺陷被进一步放大，难以适应在美华人的实际需求： 1. 汇率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market continues to reach record highs despite macroeconomic challenges, with expectations for volatility in Q3 but a positive outlook for AI and capital expenditure into next year [1][2]. Market Predictions - The year-end target for the market is projected at around 6,600, with a potential rise to 6,900 by mid-next year and a bull case of 7,200 [2]. - The current market level is expected to remain stable, with buying opportunities during Q3 volatility [3]. Gold Market Insights - Anticipation of a Federal Reserve easing cycle, with two more rate cuts expected by year-end and possibly two additional cuts in Q1 next year, is seen as favorable for gold [4]. - Central bank purchases of gold continue, indicating ongoing diversification amid rising geopolitical concerns and a slowing economy, which are all positive factors for gold prices [5]. Labor Market and Economic Conditions - A dual economic scenario is emerging, with significant infrastructure investment alongside a weakening labor market, projected to see unemployment rise to 4.8% by year-end [6][7]. - The Fed's easing cycle is viewed as beneficial for risk assets, despite the current elevated market levels [7]. Tariff Implications - The effective tariff rate is currently around 18%, significantly up from 2.5% at the start of the current administration, with potential increases to 20% if sectoral tariffs are implemented [8][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed has entered a new round of interest - rate cut cycles, and the continued improvement of US manufacturing data is favorable for non - ferrous metals in the long - term. However, after the interest - rate cut is implemented, there will be a phased adjustment, and future trends depend on economic data [11]. - Different non - ferrous metals have different market conditions and investment strategies. For example, copper is recommended to go long on dips; zinc can be moderately long on dips; the aluminum industry chain is recommended to be short; tin short - term long positions can be appropriately taken profit; lead can be long on dips; nickel and stainless steel can be long on dips [3][4][5][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metal Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, starting a new round of interest - rate cut cycles. China's one - year and five - year LPR in September remained unchanged. China's central bank adheres to an independent monetary policy and implements a moderately loose monetary policy. After the interest - rate cut, there was a phased adjustment, and future trends depend on economic data [11]. - **This Week's Focus**: The release of August PCE and September European and American manufacturing PMIs, intensive speeches by Fed officials including Powell, the release of China's September LPR, and the participation of Pan Gongsheng, Wu Qing, and Li Yunze in the "14th Five - Year Plan" series of press conferences [12]. - **Non - ferrous Metal Strategies**: Different non - ferrous metals have different operation logics, support and pressure areas, market judgments, and investment strategies. For example, copper is expected to strengthen in shock and is recommended to go long on dips; zinc will fluctuate in a range and can be long on dips; the aluminum industry chain is expected to be weak and is recommended to be short; tin will rebound in shock and short - term long positions can be reduced; lead will fluctuate upward and can be long on dips; nickel and stainless steel are recommended to be long on dips [13][14][15]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metal Market Review The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented. For example, copper closed at 80160 with a 0.31% increase; zinc closed at 22090 with a 0.20% increase; aluminum closed at 20745 with a 0.24% decrease, etc. [16]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metal Position Analysis The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metal sector shows the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors of different varieties such as silver, gold, tin, copper, etc. [18]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Spot Market The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price is 80340 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price is 21960 yuan/ton with a 0.14% decrease, etc. [19][21]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Industry Chain Graphs related to the industry chain of various non - ferrous metals are presented, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, etc. For example, for copper, there are graphs of exchange copper inventory changes and SMM social copper inventory changes; for zinc, there are graphs of zinc inventory changes and zinc concentrate processing fee changes [23][27]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Arbitrage Graphs related to non - ferrous metal arbitrage are presented, including changes in the Shanghai - London ratio, basis spreads, and price differences between different varieties. For example, for copper, there are graphs of copper Shanghai - London ratio changes and the basis spread between Shanghai copper and London copper [56]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metal Options Graphs related to non - ferrous metal options are presented, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, and open - interest changes. For example, for copper, there are graphs of copper option historical volatility and copper option weighted implied volatility [72].

上海证券表示，黄金长期看多逻辑并未改变，后续可能进一步向上突破。我们认为全球去美元化、美联 储步入降息周期等黄金长期上涨的大逻辑并没有改变，如果时间拉长，黄金有望进一步向上突破。但是 这需要有新的变量发生，比如美国就业形势或通胀水平超预期下滑导致美联储态度进一步转鸽，或者特 朗普通过美联储理事人员变动成功对美联储施压，美联储超预期转鸽等等。 国新证券表示，黄金资产受去美元化趋势推动，央行持续购金提供长期支撑。短期非农数据下修及降息 预期增强市场避险情绪，金价上涨动力充沛。白银正从工业配角转向价值主角，投资逻辑由工业需求爆 发和金融属性觉醒共同驱动。AI与5G技术迭代或扩大供需缺口，金银比修复预期下，白银相较黄金具 补涨潜力。整体而言，黄金和白银资产在多重因素作用下，展现出较强的投资吸引力。 9月22日，黄金ETF（518880）收涨1.90%，当日午后成交额持续扩大，截至收盘超36亿元。同时，黄 金股票ETF（159321）当日午后亦震荡走高，收涨3.39%。 昨日黄金相关ETF表现走强，或受贵金属市场的价格走势影响。据Wind数据，9月22日盘中，现货黄金 再创纪录高位；当日现货白银盘中突破前高，创2011 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00-4.25% during its September meeting, while also revising up its economic and inflation forecasts, indicating a potential for three more rate cuts by 2025 [42][46] - The U.S. retail sales in August increased by 0.6%, surpassing market expectations of a decline of 0.2%, driven by improvements in online shopping and dining services [46] Group 2 - The fourth round of U.S.-China trade talks concluded with a consensus on the TikTok issue, focusing on data security and content management, but limited progress on broader trade topics [28] - As of July, the average tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on global imports was 9.75%, with a significantly higher rate of 40.36% on imports from China, contributing approximately $10.1 billion in tariff revenue [28][31]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year [1] - Following the Fed's rate cut, several banks in China have adjusted their personal USD time deposit rates, with many currently maintaining rates in the "3% range" for one-year deposits [1] - Nanjing Bank's new USD deposit rates effective from September 13 show a decrease, with one-year rates dropping from 4% to 3.0% for a minimum deposit of $100,000 [1] Group 2 - According to a chief economist at CITIC Securities, the likelihood of further declines in USD deposit rates is high due to the Fed's recent rate cut and potential future cuts [2] - The downward adjustment of USD deposit rates may lead to reduced interest income for depositors, prompting them to seek higher-yielding assets such as bonds or stocks [2] - Investors are advised to diversify their asset allocation in USD investments and closely monitor Fed policy changes and exchange rate fluctuations [2]

昨晚美联储如预期降息了25个基点，今年预计还会有两次降息，降50个基点，按照最新的点阵图，未来 两年还会各再降25个基点。 投资人听到美联储要降息，往往是高兴的，但他们如果有心去翻一下历次美联储降息周期中资产的表 现，又会不寒而栗，历史上美股的深度熊市，恰恰发生在美联储的降息周期中。 那么，美联储降息，到底是利好，还是利空，是牛市的加速器，还是熊市的开端？ 要了解这个问题，我们先来看下过去的情况，从90年代到今天，美国有7次降息周期。 01 1990年7月-1992年10月 这个的降息背景是1990年7月，按美国统计局定义，美国经济正式进入经济衰退，衰退的主要原因是80 年代末的高利率和紧缩政策逐渐压制了需求。 当时美国的联邦基金利率是8%，10年期国债利率也是8%以上，长时间扛这样的高成本绝不是一件容易 的事。而这个时候美国的储贷危机还在持续，银行受此冲击，信贷收紧了。 另一方面，80年代末美国的通胀一度较高，但到1990年开始显著回落，物价压力减轻，也给了美联储灵 活的空间。 从1990年7月开始，美联储开始降息，一直降到1992年9月，联邦基金利率从8%降到了3%。 实际美国经济在91年一季度见底了（9 ...

Core Insights - The recent increase in posts related to resource cyclical products on investment social platforms indicates growing interest in this sector [1] - Multiple sub-sectors within the resource cycle have shown positive performance, with several resource-themed funds reaching new net asset value highs this year [1] - The anticipated arrival of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle is expected to benefit the non-ferrous metals sector, as market liquidity becomes more accommodative [1] - With the Producer Price Index (PPI) in China approaching a turning point, resource products are likely to emerge as key drivers in the next market rally, supporting a bullish outlook on cyclical investments [1]