Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility, with recent price fluctuations suggesting a potential historical bull market revival, driven by policy changes, record demand, and monetary policy shifts. Group 1: Policy Changes - A new tax policy effective from November 1, 2023, differentiates between "investment gold" and "non-investment gold," reducing the input tax for non-investment products from 13% to 6%, increasing costs for merchants [3]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Global gold demand reached a record 1,313 tons in Q3 2023, with investment demand surging by 47% year-on-year to 537 tons, and gold ETFs seeing net inflows of 222 tons, amounting to $26 billion [4]. - In China, gold bar and coin sales increased by 19% year-on-year to 74 tons in Q3, marking the highest sales since 2013, with total sales for the first three quarters reaching 313 tons [4]. - Central banks globally purchased a net 220 tons of gold in Q3, a 28% increase from Q2, with China's reserves now at 2,304 tons, constituting 7.7% of its foreign exchange reserves [4]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on October 30, 2023, marking the second cut of the year, which lowers the opportunity cost of holding gold and makes it more attractive as the dollar weakens [5][6]. - Market expectations for another rate cut in December 2023 exceed 67%, with historical trends indicating that gold prices typically rise during Fed rate-cut cycles [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently testing the $4,000 level, with significant volatility observed, including a $500 drop in October. However, the combination of favorable policies, strong demand, and monetary conditions suggests a high probability of a historical price rally [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are unlikely to peak at the beginning of a rate-cutting cycle, as they are still in the early stages of this cycle [1] - In the medium to long term, the current market conditions driven by the Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate-cutting cycle, increasing uncertainty in overseas macro policies, and the global trend of de-dollarization are supportive of gold prices, suggesting a strategy of gradual accumulation during dips [1] - The Gold Stock ETF (517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (931238), which selects larger market capitalization companies involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales, covering the entire gold industry chain [1] Group 2 - The index constituents are primarily concentrated in the precious metals and industrial metals sectors, reflecting the overall performance of publicly traded securities related to the gold industry [1] - The index has a high industry concentration, which allows it to comprehensively represent the performance of gold-related listed securities [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the electric new energy and electronics sectors, with significant foreign capital inflow and increased holdings in these industries [2][9][22]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the total scale of foreign capital through the Stock Connect reached 2.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 283.13 billion yuan from the previous quarter. The proportion of holdings in the main board significantly decreased by 8.47 percentage points, while the growth sectors saw an increase of 11.80 percentage points [5][9]. - The sectors with the largest foreign holdings were electric new energy (17.93%, +4.88 percentage points), electronics (14.09%, +4.38 percentage points), and pharmaceuticals (7.34%, +0.07 percentage points). Conversely, the food and beverage sector saw a decline of 2.06 percentage points [9][10]. - The report highlights that foreign capital is likely to continue flowing into core assets, technology, cyclical sectors, and large financial institutions in Q4 2025, driven by favorable economic conditions and policy support [22][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Growth Sector Holdings - The proportion of foreign capital in growth sectors increased significantly, with a notable rise in holdings in the entrepreneurial and sci-tech boards [5][6]. 2. Electric New Energy and Electronics - The electric new energy and electronics sectors saw substantial increases in foreign capital holdings, with electric new energy leading at 17.93% and electronics at 14.09% [9][15]. 3. Core Assets and Technology Growth Stocks - Key assets such as Ningde Times and Sunshine Power experienced significant changes in foreign capital holdings, with the top five stocks showing a recovery in holding concentration [17][19]. 4. Future Capital Inflows - The report anticipates continued inflows into core assets and technology sectors, supported by the ongoing Fed rate cut cycle and improving corporate earnings [22][23].

Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metals (AU, AG): Precious Metals Fluctuate Widely and May Gradually Stabilize Subsequently [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - After recent significant adjustments, precious metal prices have a certain demand for stabilization and repair. The support below lies in high market uncertainty and the Fed still being in an interest - rate cut cycle. However, due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations, a relatively strong US dollar index, and the possibility of marginal alleviation of the US government shutdown, the short - term unilateral upward space for precious metals may be limited. In the short term, precious metal prices may gradually stabilize and enter a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to focus on long - term allocation opportunities of buying on dips after stabilization [7]. - The underlying logic of the long - term bull market for precious metals remains solid. The continuous increase in the US federal government debt will intensify the long - term weakening risk of the US dollar's credit. Coupled with the Fed still being in an interest - rate cut cycle, complex global geopolitical situations, and continued gold purchases by global central banks, the price center of gold will continue to move up steadily [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking - **Price and Ratio**: Last week, precious metal prices dropped significantly and then stabilized, but gold still closed down on the weekly chart. London spot gold decreased from $4111.555/oz to $4002.690/oz, a weekly decline of 2.65%. London spot silver increased slightly from $48.6235/oz to $48.6562/oz, a weekly increase of 0.07%. The SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 2.66% to 80.58 [5][6]. - **ETF and CFC Holdings**: The gold SPDR - ETF持仓量 decreased by 7.73 tons to 1039.2 tons, a decline of 0.74%. The silver SLV - ETF持仓量 decreased by 230 tons to 15190 tons, a decline of 1.49%. COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 339 contracts to 266749 contracts, an increase of 0.13%. COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions increased by 738 contracts to 52276 contracts, an increase of 1.43% [6]. - **Inventory Data**: The SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.80 tons to 87.816 tons, an increase of 0.92%. The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 22.05 tons to 1187.16 tons, a decrease of 1.82%. The SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.57 tons to 666 tons, an increase of 0.09%. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 451.26 tons to 15006 tons, a decrease of 2.92%. The SGE silver inventory decreased by 145.44 tons to 905 tons, a decrease of 13.84% [6]. PART TWO: Main Macroeconomic Indicator Tracking - **Exchange Rates and Interest Rates**: The US dollar index increased from 98.9417 to 99.7308, an increase of 0.80%. The US 2 - year Treasury yield increased from 3.4884% to 3.5736%, an increase of 2.44%. The US 10 - year Treasury yield increased from 4.0103% to 4.0833%, an increase of 1.82%. The US 10 - year real interest rate increased from 1.73% to 1.81%, an increase of 4.62% [6]. - **Economic Data**: The US GDP growth rate was strong, but the consumer confidence index declined again. The US manufacturing and service PMI both decreased. Retail sales data showed mixed performance. Employment cooled significantly, with the unemployment rate rising and wage growth slowing down. Inflation was relatively controllable, with core commodity inflation rising and core service inflation falling [58][59][60][65][70]. - **Eurozone Data**: The eurozone GDP bottomed out and rebounded. The eurozone manufacturing PMI rebounded, while the service PMI declined. Inflation data in the eurozone and the UK showed different trends [78][79]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months. As of the end of September 2025, China's gold reserves reached 74.06 million ounces (about 2303.523 tons), an increase of 40,000 ounces (about 1.24 tons) month - on - month. In the first three quarters of 2025, global central banks and other institutions net - purchased about 633.6 tons of gold, a year - on - year decrease of about 12.1%. Although the pace of gold purchases by global central banks has slowed down, the demand for gold purchases is expected to remain [87].

Group 1 - The global stock market experienced slight fluctuations this week, with A-shares slightly up by 0.41% and European markets generally down [2][3][4] - The South Korean stock market saw a significant increase of over 20% this month, attributed to the APEC summit, following a period of undervaluation [4][5] - Since the Federal Reserve entered a rate-cutting cycle in September last year, global stock markets have benefited from increased liquidity, leading to higher valuations [6][7] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut in October, aligning with market expectations, but indicated that a December rate cut is not guaranteed [8][9][10] - Market concerns arose regarding the potential uncertainty of a December rate cut, with current expectations placing the probability at around 50-60% [12] - Long-term projections suggest that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower rates, as the current rate of around 4% is considered too high for the dollar [14][15] Group 3 - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, reported a record cash reserve of 381.67 billion yuan in Q3 [18][26] - Buffett's investment strategy is influenced by Benjamin Graham, focusing on increasing stock allocations when markets are undervalued and shifting to cash and bonds when markets are overvalued [19][20] - Over the past two years, as U.S. stocks have risen, Buffett has found fewer buying opportunities, leading to a continuous increase in cash and bond holdings [21][24] Group 4 - A global stock market star rating chart indicates that previous undervaluation phases occurred in 2018, 2020, and 2022, with the current rating around 2.9 stars [33][34] - There are currently no global stock index funds available in mainland China, but a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" has been launched to simulate similar investment effects [36][37] Group 5 - The newly released sixth edition of "The Long-Term Investment Guide" has topped sales charts, emphasizing the importance of stock assets for long-term wealth accumulation [42][43] - The book includes updated data over nearly 30 years and introduces new chapters, reinforcing the idea that stocks are the best long-term investment tool [42][43]

Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Market Dynamics - Lithium carbonate prices have surged, with a maximum increase of 16% over 11 trading days starting from October 15, 2025, despite previous oversupply conditions [2] - The demand for lithium carbonate is driven by explosive growth in energy storage systems, with global energy storage cell shipments expected to reach 600 GWh in 2025, a 62.1% year-on-year increase [2] - The demand for lithium carbonate from energy storage batteries is projected to rise from 36.7 million tons in 2025 to 53.4 million tons in 2026, reflecting an upward adjustment of 8.4% and 19.1% respectively [3] Group 2: Battery Demand and Supply Outlook - The demand for power batteries is expected to maintain a high growth rate, with projections of 25.2% and 20.5% year-on-year growth for 2025 and 2026 respectively [3] - The global demand for lithium carbonate is anticipated to shift from oversupply to a tight balance by 2026, with total demand expected to reach 196.3 million tons, a 29.8% increase year-on-year [3] - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to grow at a rate of 20%, indicating a potential tightening of the market [3] Group 3: Cotton Market Insights - In the 2025/26 season, seed cotton purchase prices in Northern Xinjiang are stable at 5.5-6.2 yuan per kilogram, while Southern Xinjiang prices are higher at 6.1-6.5 yuan per kilogram [5] - The total cotton production in China is projected to be between 7.1 million and 7.3 million tons, reflecting an increase compared to previous years [7] - The cotton market is expected to experience slight price declines after mid-November as resources from Xinjiang become available [7] Group 4: Coking Coal Price Trends - Coking coal prices are under pressure due to operational challenges in coal mining, with a significant drop in revenue and profit margins reported [8] - Safety regulations are tightening, leading to production constraints, particularly in the fourth quarter, which is traditionally a high-risk period for coal mining [9] - The inventory levels of coking coal are at historical lows, with a significant reduction compared to the beginning of the year, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [11] Group 5: Gold Price Movements - Recent declines in gold prices are attributed to a combination of factors including easing geopolitical tensions, a stronger dollar, and technical corrections following rapid price increases [19][20] - Historical analysis shows that the recent drop in gold prices ranks among the largest since 2000, primarily driven by shifts in market sentiment and profit-taking [20] - The outlook for gold remains cautious, with potential for further declines if macroeconomic conditions do not improve [22]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have surged rapidly post-October, driven by macroeconomic factors and tightening supply in mining and smelting, with the Shanghai copper index breaking 89,000 yuan/ton and London copper reaching a high of $11,200/ton [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in October, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year, with a potential end to balance sheet reduction starting December 1 [2] - The dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields have risen, putting pressure on copper prices, while recent discussions between China and the U.S. leaders have positively impacted market sentiment [2] Supply Side Dynamics - The mining sector remains tight, with Freeport-McMoRan's Q3 copper production dropping to 912 million pounds and Glencore's copper output down 17% year-on-year to 583,500 tons [3] - Indonesia has issued a copper concentrate export quota of approximately 400,000 tons to Amman Mineral, which may alleviate some supply constraints [3] - Global copper mine production in August was 1.937 million tons, showing a slight decrease from July, with a year-on-year increase of only 2.2% [3] Refining and Production Trends - Global refined copper production in August was 2.451 million tons, remaining stable from July, with a cumulative increase of 4.1% year-on-year for the first eight months [5] - China's refined copper production in September was 1.266 million tons, a decrease from the previous month but a 10.1% increase year-on-year [6] - Domestic smelting plants are facing reduced production due to low processing fees, which may lead to a gradual decline in refined copper output [6] Inventory Levels - Domestic copper inventory is at a relatively balanced level, with SMM electrolytic copper social inventory at 182,600 tons as of October 30, showing no significant depletion [8] - LME copper inventory has slightly decreased to 135,000 tons, while COMEX copper inventory has risen to 347,000 tons [8] Demand Dynamics - Post-holiday, the rapid rise in copper prices has suppressed downstream demand, with SMM refined copper rod enterprises' operating rate dropping to 61.55% [10] - Overall consumption remains subdued, with significant sectors like cables and enameled wire primarily engaging in just-in-time purchasing [10] - Investment growth in the power grid has slowed to 9.9%, and real estate data continues to show weakness, impacting overall demand [10][11] Summary - Overall, while macroeconomic conditions do not present significant downside risks, the high copper prices have led to increased caution among investors, with potential profit-taking and adjustments in precious metals impacting copper prices [12] - The supply side remains fragile, with expectations for reduced supply in the coming years, while low processing fees are affecting domestic refined copper production [12] - The price increase is also suppressing demand, which is a key concern for the market [12]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to stabilize and potentially rise after a period of adjustment, with market sentiment shifting towards bullish as negative factors are anticipated to be exhausted [1][3]. Price Movement Summary - On October 29, gold opened at $3950.69 per ounce, dipped to a low of $3916.97, and later rebounded to a high of $4030 before closing at $3930.21, marking a daily fluctuation of $113.03 and a decline of $20.48 or 0.52% [1][3]. - The price movement was influenced by market reactions to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and geopolitical tensions, including U.S.-Russia sanctions and trade discussions with China [3][5]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market is currently experiencing a bullish sentiment driven by buying pressure as negative expectations are likely to be fully priced in, with a focus on upcoming U.S.-China trade talks [3][5]. - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points has led to a stronger dollar, which has pressured gold prices, but expectations of further rate cuts may support gold in the long term [3][5]. Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest that gold prices are at a critical juncture, with potential support near the 10-week moving average and the middle band of the Bollinger Bands indicating limited downside [7][9]. - The daily chart shows a reversal pattern with signs of a bottoming process, suggesting that gold may either consolidate before rising or test lower support levels before rebounding [9].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective rise, with significant increases in major indices, driven by strong performance in the metals sector and positive market sentiment ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting [1][6]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.7%, stabilizing above 4000 points; the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.93%. The North Star 50 Index saw a remarkable rise of 8.41%. The total market turnover reached 2.29 trillion yuan, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1]. Metals Sector - The Nonferrous Metals ETF (159881) closed up by 4.78%, while the Mining ETF (561330) rose by 4.48% [2][4]. - The nonferrous metals sector saw a collective surge, with copper and zinc leading the gains. The main copper futures contract in London broke through the $11,000/ton mark and reached an intraday high of $11,130/ton, surpassing the previous historical high of $11,104.5/ton set in May of last year, marking a year-to-date increase of nearly 25% [6]. - London aluminum prices also rose, breaking a nearly three-year record, reaching an intraday high of $2,909.9/ton, with a year-to-date increase of over 13% [6]. Economic Factors - The rebound in spot gold prices followed a drop to $3,886.2/ounce, with market participants awaiting the FOMC meeting and anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut, which could benefit precious metals [6]. - Recent trade discussions between China and the U.S. in Kuala Lumpur have eased trade concerns, boosting market risk appetite and benefiting industrial metals like copper and aluminum [6]. Future Outlook - The copper supply-demand situation remains tight, with expectations for price increases in a rate-cutting cycle. Recent disruptions in overseas copper mines, including a forecasted production shortfall from Antofagasta in Chile, have led to downward adjustments in production guidance for several major projects, cumulatively reducing output by nearly 500,000 tons [7]. - The ongoing low treatment charge (TC) prices for copper mines and the tightening of smelting capacity in China are expected to support copper prices in the medium term [7]. - For gold, the core factors supporting price increases include the onset of a Fed rate-cutting cycle, challenges to the dollar's credit system, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [8][9]. Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to focus on resource stocks, particularly the Mining ETF (561330) and the Nonferrous Metals ETF (159881), which have significant exposure to gold, copper, and rare metals, collectively accounting for over 50% of their industry distribution [10].

Core Viewpoint - The fund has moderately reduced its holdings in the innovative drug sector while increasing allocations to the non-bank financial and internet sectors in Q3 2025 [1] Non-Bank Financial Sector - The tightening liquidity environment benefits insurance companies' interest spreads, with valuations at historically low levels, providing good safety margins and recovery potential [1] - In the context of a weak macroeconomic recovery, the stable nature of insurance products is likely to attract more capital [1] Internet Sector - The internet sector has become a key focus for allocation in Q3, with valuation recovery driven by a combination of macroeconomic, fundamental, and liquidity factors rather than a surge in performance [1] - The initiation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has lowered risk-free rates, directly boosting the valuations of long-duration assets like internet companies [1] - Improved market sentiment regarding overall demand has enhanced growth prospects for core businesses such as e-commerce and advertising [1] - Internet companies have shifted from a growth-oriented to a profit-oriented approach after several years of strategic adjustments, resulting in significantly improved profitability and cash flow quality [1] - In a challenging environment for traditional industries and increased volatility in certain tech sectors, leading internet firms have become a consensus investment choice due to their high liquidity, clear business models, and stable shareholder returns, attracting funds from other sectors [1]