展望2026年，世界黄金协会认为，央行购金需求仍是黄金表现的重要支撑。但该协会也强调，新的一 年，全球央行购金决策通常更多取决于政策与政治考量，而非单纯的市场需求。 申万宏源表示，2026年黄金价格仍有上涨空间，主要由于美国财政赤字高企和去美元化趋势。战略层 面，黄金供应缺口扩大和需求增加将支撑金价，尤其央行购金量增加。战术层面，需关注美国周期性变 化下的美债利率走势及波动率，预计2026年黄金波动性将提高。 上海金ETF(518600)，场外联接(A类：008986；C类：008987)，该基金紧跟金价、支持T+0交易，可谓 黄金便捷投资利器；投资者可借道上海金ETF对冲金饰价格上涨。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 国际宏观方面，美国2025年三季度GDP环比增速从今年二季度的3.8%进一步上行至4.3%。市场一度交 易降息预期降温，知情人士透露，特朗普可能在2026年1月第一周任命新任美联储负责人。市场预期， 无论特朗普选择谁，新任美联储负责人几乎肯定会比鲍威尔更加鸽派。 此外，芝商所全线上调金属品种履约保证金。芝商所（CME Group）于12月26日发布重大保 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices have surged to historical highs, with gold reaching a peak of 4584 on COMEX, indicating a strong upward trend in precious metals [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On December 29, the gold ETF (518800) closed down by 0.9% [1] - Last week, precious metals prices, including silver, soared to record highs, continuing a historical upward trend [1] - The London spot gold price broke previous highs and continued to strengthen, consistently setting new historical records [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 is projected to rise from 3.8% in Q2 2023 to 4.3%, significantly above Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 3.3% [1] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, but there are concerns that the current high growth in the U.S. economy may not be sustainable [1] Group 3: Geopolitical Developments - Ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine persist, with reports of drone attacks on Moscow and unresolved territorial issues between Trump and Zelensky [1] - The situation in Venezuela is escalating, with Trump increasing pressure on President Maduro by blocking oil tankers and announcing the closure of airspace around Venezuela, with potential airstrike options not ruled out [1] Group 4: Market Regulations - CME Group announced a significant increase in margin requirements for metal futures, including gold and silver, effective after market close on December 29 [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has also issued risk warnings and control measures in response to the precious metals market trends [2] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Short-term, there is an increased risk of profit-taking among investors following the recent highs in gold prices [2] - In the medium to long term, factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, increasing global uncertainties, and the trend of de-dollarization are expected to provide support for gold prices [2] - Investors are encouraged to monitor investment opportunities in gold ETFs (518800) and gold stock ETFs (517400) [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.04% to 3965.28 points, marking a nine-day winning streak, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.49% to 13537.10 points. The total trading volume remained high at 2.15 trillion yuan, with more declines than gains in the overall market. As the year-end approaches, market hotspots are becoming more dispersed, with the oil and military sectors performing relatively well. After a brief adjustment in the fourth quarter, the market has resumed its upward trend, and the positive factors driving this rally are expected to remain unchanged, indicating a potential slow bull market next year [1][10]. Metal Market Dynamics - The metal market has shown significant volatility, with silver futures experiencing over a 10% increase during the day but closing lower. Copper futures broke the 100,000 yuan mark but also saw a narrowing of gains by the end of the day. Platinum and palladium contracts hit their daily limit down. The fluctuations in commodity prices have led to a decline in the non-ferrous metal sector in the stock market [3][12]. - Silver has been in a structural supply deficit for five years, driven by industrial demand from photovoltaic silver paste and AI electronics, with a cumulative increase of over 150% this year. The global supply of silver is primarily a byproduct of copper, lead, and zinc mining, and the expected increase in silver supply by 2026 is minimal, unable to fill the significant demand gap. The demand from the photovoltaic industry is stable despite the push for "de-silverization," while the rapidly expanding demand from AI data centers and automotive electronics will further support silver prices. A physical deficit of over 100 million ounces of silver is anticipated by 2026 [3][12]. - In contrast, copper is transitioning from an expected shortage to a real shortage, with projections indicating a deep deficit of 500,000 to 1 million tons in the global copper market by 2026. The decline in existing mine grades and lagging capital expenditures are hindering copper supply growth, while the explosive demand from AI and power grids is creating a rigid demand for copper, making price increases more likely in the long term [3][12]. Investment Strategies - Given the significant prior gains in metals like silver and copper, profit-taking has led to increased short-term volatility. Companies with high-quality mining resources are expected to benefit from both volume and price increases, providing a good safety margin and typically higher stock price elasticity than the metals themselves. Investors are advised to pay attention to mining ETFs (561330) and consider opportunities for low-cost acquisitions [4][13]. - The livestock sector saw a mild increase today, with pig supply expected to contract significantly due to strong policy and market-driven reductions, potentially leading to a rising price trend. The chicken sector is also expected to see price stabilization as seasonal demand increases, while the egg-laying industry faces upstream supply constraints that will gradually affect prices. Overall, the livestock industry is anticipated to recover in profits and valuations by 2026, making livestock ETFs (159865) worth monitoring [4][14]. Currency and Economic Outlook - The offshore RMB has strengthened against the USD, reaching the 7.0 mark, the highest in 15 months. It is expected that the RMB will maintain a strong trend in the short term, with a moderate appreciation anticipated in 2026, which could enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets to global capital [4][14]. - In 2026, China is expected to continue its loose monetary and proactive fiscal policies, leading to a further recovery in total demand. Globally, fiscal expansions in the US, Europe, and Japan are also expected to improve demand. The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a loose stance, benefiting the A-share market during the economic recovery phase [5][15]. Index Performance - The A500 index emphasizes industry balance and sector leaders, providing a more diversified and growth-exposed style that can offer a better beta base during the industrial upgrade cycle. Since its base period, the A500 has shown an annualized total return of 9.11% with a volatility of 21.41%, outperforming the CSI 300 in total returns, particularly in growth phases. The A500 index, covering leading companies across various sectors, offers investors a balanced choice between defensive and growth potential during market fluctuations [6][15].

Core Viewpoint - The current spot gold price is around $4470.31 per ounce, having approached a historical high of $4550 earlier in the day, influenced by profit-taking and a rebound in the dollar, making gold more expensive for non-U.S. buyers [1][1] Group 1: Price Performance - Despite a short-term pullback, gold prices have increased nearly 70% in 2025, marking the best annual performance since 1979 [1] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will begin a rate-cutting cycle in 2026, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Geopolitical tensions are boosting safe-haven demand for gold, supporting its medium to long-term outlook [1] - This week, attention will be on the U.S. November existing home sales data as liquidity thins near year-end [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices are stabilizing above the 100-day EMA, with the Bollinger Bands expanding, indicating a solid long-term upward trend [1] - The 14-day RSI is above 70, suggesting a potential short-term technical adjustment [1] - Immediate resistance is at $4550, with a breakthrough potentially leading to $4600; support levels are at $4430, with further levels at $4338 and $4300 if breached [1]

Group 1 - Supply remains tight due to rigid constraints at the mining level, with frequent production disruptions at major mines like Indonesia's Grasberg and Chile's El Teniente, leading to insufficient new capacity and tight copper concentrate supply [2] - The smelting sector is under pressure as copper concentrate processing fees (TC/RC) have dropped to negative values, causing Chinese smelting companies to face production cuts due to raw material shortages and losses, which may further impact refined copper supply [2] - There is a structural demand highlight despite weak demand in traditional real estate, with strong growth points emerging from investments in power grids, electric vehicles, AI data centers, and supporting power facilities, providing resilient support for copper demand [2] Group 2 - A unique "regional inventory imbalance" has emerged due to U.S. tariff policies, resulting in a significant flow of global copper inventory to U.S. warehouses, causing tight spot supply in Asia (including China) and Europe, which has driven up spot premiums and prices in these regions [2] - The macroeconomic and financial environment is supportive, with expectations of global liquidity easing during the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle and a weaker dollar enhancing the financial attributes and allocation value of commodities like copper [2] Group 3 - The overall outlook for copper prices in China for 2026 suggests that under supply constraints, emerging demand, and financial support, prices are likely to rise and remain high, making significant declines less probable [2]

Group 1 - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility on December 29, with silver prices initially surging past $83 per ounce before dropping over 5% [1]. - The National Investment Silver LOF opened at a limit down price but quickly rebounded, closing up 8.8% with a trading volume significantly higher than the previous three days [1]. - Gold futures in New York also exhibited a "V-shaped reversal," with the main contract price falling below $4,550 per ounce [3]. Group 2 - Several stocks in the A-share precious metals sector turned negative, including Hunan Gold, Sichuan Gold, and others, reflecting a broader market trend [5]. - Notably, Hunan Silver saw a gain of 10.01%, while other companies like Hunan Gold and Sichuan Gold experienced slight declines [6]. - Last Friday, the precious metals market surged across the board, with silver, palladium, and platinum rising over 10%, and COMEX silver futures skyrocketing over 11% [5]. Group 3 - Exchanges have raised margin requirements for certain precious metals due to the recent price fluctuations, with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange announcing increases for gold, silver, and lithium futures [7]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange also issued notices regarding risk control and margin adjustments for trading during the New Year period [8]. Group 4 - Looking ahead, precious metal prices are expected to remain volatile, influenced by factors such as the Federal Reserve's independence crisis and concerns over the dollar's credibility [9]. - Some analysts warn that silver is currently in a severe overbought zone, suggesting a potential for rapid correction, although the long-term bullish outlook remains intact due to ongoing support factors [9].

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot silver experienced significant volatility on December 29, with an annual increase exceeding 160%, outperforming gold significantly [1][2]. Price Movement - On December 29, spot silver prices briefly surpassed $83 per ounce, marking an increase of nearly 6%, before quickly retreating to around $75, maintaining a narrow trading range [1][2]. - As of 10:09 AM, spot silver was down 2.03%, priced at $77.72 per ounce, with an annual increase of over 160% [1][2]. Market Conditions - Silver is currently in a severe overbought territory, indicating a potential for rapid correction or high-level consolidation to digest gains [1][2]. - Despite the current market conditions, this does not signify the end of the bull market, as the underlying factors supporting long-term increases in precious metals remain intact [1][2]. Supporting Factors for Long-term Growth - Key factors supporting the long-term rise in precious metals include the onset of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, ongoing global central bank gold purchases, rising geopolitical risks, and long-term concerns regarding currency credibility [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot silver experienced significant volatility, initially surpassing $83 per ounce with a nearly 6% increase, before quickly dropping to around $75, indicating a narrow trading range. Despite this fluctuation, silver has shown a remarkable annual increase of over 160%, outperforming gold significantly [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Spot silver prices reached a peak of $83 per ounce before declining to approximately $75, reflecting a volatile trading session [1] - As of 10:09 AM, silver prices were down 2.03%, trading at $77.72 per ounce [1] - The annual increase in silver prices exceeds 160%, indicating strong performance compared to gold [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Current market conditions suggest that silver has entered a severe overbought territory, which may lead to a rapid correction or a slow digestion of gains through high-level consolidation [1] - The underlying factors supporting the long-term rise of precious metals remain intact, including the onset of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, ongoing global central bank gold purchases, rising geopolitical risks, and long-term concerns regarding currency credibility [1]

Core Viewpoint - In the context of a slowing global economy, a single asset class is insufficient to meet account yield requirements, necessitating a diversified asset allocation strategy to navigate economic cycles [1] Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - Bonds are identified as the "ballast" for accounts, with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, providing valuation advantages for investment-grade bonds [1] - Stocks are viewed as the engine for growth, particularly in the AI technology and hard technology sectors [1] Group 2: Commodity Investment - The increasing global uncertainty highlights the value of commodities like gold as risk hedging tools [1] - Commodities such as copper and rare earths are expected to benefit from global investments in AI infrastructure, presenting a positive outlook [1]

Core Conclusion - In 2016, China Aircraft Leasing Group Holdings Limited (CALC) was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. As a leading player in the aircraft leasing industry, the company is expected to benefit from both the rising aviation industry and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. CALC owns 483 aircraft, ranking fifth among global aircraft leasing companies, and is projected to see revenue growth from its global airline customer base as the aviation market improves. Additionally, with the ongoing interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the company's USD-denominated funding costs are expected to decrease, leading to an expansion of interest margins, resulting in a dual benefit for the company. The company is favored for its young fleet and long-term leases, which provide asset stability, and the anticipated decline in debt costs is expected to widen interest spreads. A "Buy" rating is assigned for the first coverage [1]. Industry Outlook - The aviation industry's recovery is driving an increase in aircraft rental prices due to supply shortages. The global aviation market saw a sharp decline in 2020 due to the pandemic, but it began to recover in 2021, with a strong rebound expected post-2023. By the first half of 2025, global Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) are projected to return to pre-pandemic levels, with stable demand in the aviation market. In 2024, Boeing is expected to underdeliver due to safety incidents, regulatory tightening, and labor strikes, leading to a global aircraft supply shortage. Rental prices for mainstream narrow-body Airbus A320 and wide-body Boeing 737 aircraft are showing a steady upward trend and are expected to continue this trajectory in the future [1]. Competitive Advantage - CALC's core competitiveness lies in its young fleet and long-term leases, which provide cost and liquidity advantages compared to Bohai Leasing and China Aircraft Leasing. The company's fleet size is continuously increasing, and its financing lease scale is growing rapidly. The company's liabilities are primarily USD-denominated, and it dynamically adjusts the duration and structure of its liabilities in response to interest rate changes. With the anticipated continuation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the cost of liabilities is expected to decrease [2]. Financial Projections - CALC's total operating revenue is projected to be USD 2.634 billion, USD 2.854 billion, and USD 2.939 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of +3.0%, +8.4%, and +3.0% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be USD 761 million, USD 894 million, and USD 964 million for the same years, with year-on-year changes of -17.6%, +17.4%, and +7.8%. Corresponding earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be HKD 8.53, HKD 10.01, and HKD 10.80, while book value per share (BPS) is expected to be HKD 76.70, HKD 83.21, and HKD 90.23, with return on equity (ROE) levels of 11.53%, 12.53%, and 12.45% respectively [2].