Group 1 - The U.S. military confirmed a large-scale airstrike against ISIS targets in Syria as part of "Operation Eagle Eye," which was initiated in response to the deaths of two U.S. soldiers and a civilian translator in a prior attack [2] - The airstrikes occurred on December 10, 2025, targeting multiple locations associated with the extremist group [2] Group 2 - President Trump threatened intervention in Iran, stating that the U.S. is prepared to provide "help" amid ongoing protests and unrest due to rising prices and currency devaluation [3] - The Iranian military declared its commitment to defend national interests and urged citizens to unite against perceived foreign conspiracies, particularly from Israel and terrorist organizations [5] - The Israeli military is closely monitoring the situation in Iran but currently has no offensive intentions, focusing instead on defensive preparations [5] Group 3 - President Trump signed an executive order to protect Venezuelan oil revenues stored in U.S. Treasury accounts from being seized or entangled in legal proceedings, declaring a national emergency [7][8] - The executive order aims to ensure that these funds remain available to support U.S. foreign policy objectives regarding Venezuela's economic and political stability [7] Group 4 - The non-ferrous metals market has experienced significant price increases, driven by macroeconomic policies and strong demand in sectors like electric grid infrastructure [10] - Analysts noted that copper has shown particularly strong performance due to solid fundamentals, while aluminum faces potential demand risks despite current price strength [10][11] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which have bolstered prices across various metals [11][12]

每经编辑|段炼 据央视新闻1月10日消息，美国总统特朗普1月9日下午在白宫与大型石油企业高管举行会议时重申，美国需要得到格陵兰岛。现阶段他尚未考虑"购买"格 陵兰岛的资金问题。 他希望以"容易的方式"达成交易，但如果不行，就会以"困难的方式"达成。 图片来源：视觉中国（资料图） 万斯警告欧洲：别"套老交情" 认真对待特朗普的表态 美国越来越不掩饰对丹麦自治领地格陵兰岛的觊觎，近来更是抛出"购买或动武"以攫取这一世界第一大岛的言论。 在当地时间1月7日播出的采访中，针对格陵兰岛，美国副总统万斯先是指责欧洲未顾好其安全，还让欧洲"别总拿过去说事"，声称对方过去与美国并 肩"不代表现在不会犯错"。 当地时间1月8日，万斯在白宫记者会上又喊话欧洲"认真对待"美国总统特朗普的表态，称否则美国将"采取行动"。 法国外长巴罗9日在法国驻外使节会议上表示，欧洲政治组织"如今正处于危险中"，美国"并非始终和欧洲保持一致立场"。 巴罗表示，欧盟既面临外部威胁，也面临内部"民主倦怠"的困扰。巴罗提到，几个月来，美国政府决定重新审视与欧洲之间的关系。但他同时强调，当一 个传统盟友提出的方案不可接受时，欧洲同样有权拒绝。 意大利总理梅 ...

Group 1 - The latest US non-farm payroll report did not alter market expectations regarding monetary policy, with a continued trend of slowing job growth but an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate [1][2] - December saw the addition of 50,000 non-farm jobs, below the market expectation of 60,000 and slightly lower than the revised previous value of 56,000, indicating a cooling in hiring momentum [1] - The unemployment rate fell from 4.6% to 4.4%, better than market expectations, which somewhat alleviated concerns about a rapid weakening of the labor market [1][2] Group 2 - The average hourly wage growth met expectations and did not indicate new inflationary pressures, suggesting an orderly cooling rather than structural imbalance in the labor market [1] - Despite some economic indicators showing resilience, the non-farm data did not shake the market's core pricing of the policy direction for the year, with the rate market still betting on about 50 basis points of cumulative rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by 2026 [2] - Richmond Fed President Barkin noted that the labor market remains stable overall, with job growth concentrated in healthcare and AI-related fields, and emphasized that the inflation decline process will take time [2] Group 3 - Geopolitical factors are providing marginal support for gold, with recent comments from Trump regarding Greenland raising international concerns and increasing the demand for safe-haven assets [3] - The combination of stable policy pricing and ongoing geopolitical risks has allowed gold to maintain its strength and continue to pressure historical high price levels [3] - Market focus will shift to upcoming US inflation, retail sales data, and statements from Federal Reserve officials, which will be crucial for determining whether gold can further open up space within high price ranges [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the silver market is experiencing volatility due to geopolitical tensions and changes in trading conditions, with a long-term bullish outlook remaining intact despite short-term fluctuations [1][2] Group 2 - Silver prices exhibited a "V" shaped trend this week, with significant pressure following margin increases by the CME, leading to a drop of over 5% on Thursday [1] - A major geopolitical event occurred with the U.S. conducting a large-scale military operation in Venezuela, which has heightened market demand for safe-haven assets like silver, resulting in a price surge of over 5% on Monday [1] - The U.S. has claimed control over Venezuela following the military action, while the international community has largely condemned this as a violation of sovereignty, suggesting ongoing geopolitical instability will support silver prices [1] Group 3 - Current risks in the silver market include insufficient bullish momentum to push prices to new highs before a potential larger correction, with a significant selling pressure expected if the price reaches $84.03 [2] - The 10-day moving average serves as a critical short-term support level, having successfully held during recent price fluctuations, with the low point of $70.39 confirming its strength [2]

Report Information - **Report Title**: Energy and Chemical Weekly - **Date**: January 9, 2026 - **Research Team**: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The oil market is affected by geopolitical events such as the US takeover of Venezuela's oil industry and the turmoil in Iran. Crude oil supply has an increasing expectation, and the market faces a large inventory accumulation pressure in Q1 2026. Oil prices still have a risk of decline [7][10]. - The asphalt market has relatively balanced supply and demand, and the raw material end has certain support. It is expected that asphalt prices may run strongly. It is recommended to consider going long on asphalt and short on crude oil [30][31]. - The polyester market is in a demand - off season. PTA is expected to transition from de - stocking to inventory accumulation, and its price may decline slightly. Ethylene glycol is expected to maintain a concentrated inventory accumulation before and after the Spring Festival, and its price may have a small - scale callback [57][58]. - The price of polyester staple fiber is expected to decline due to weakening cost and poor supply - demand structure [66]. - The polyolefin market is expected to rise first and then fall under the drive of supply recovery and demand entering the off - season inventory digestion cycle [84]. - The polysilicon market has an upward price but no improvement in fundamentals. The downstream is in a cycle of production reduction, and the terminal demand is in an off - season [118]. - The industrial silicon market has a neutral performance. The supply is at a seasonal low, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [138]. - The pulp market has limited fundamental changes and is expected to operate in a volatile adjustment [154]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - WTI crude oil closed at $58.28/barrel, up 1.66%; Brent crude oil closed at $62.79/barrel, up 3.27%; SC crude oil closed at 432.7 yuan/barrel, up 0.12%. The US takeover of Venezuela's oil industry and the turmoil in Iran have affected the oil price. The market faces inventory accumulation pressure in Q1 2026, and oil prices have a risk of decline [7]. 2. Fundamental Changes - The US takeover of Venezuela's oil industry and the turmoil in Iran have affected the supply and demand of the oil market. The US crude oil inventory decreased, but the refined oil inventory increased. The inventory accumulation speed in Q1 2026 slowed down slightly [10]. Asphalt 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The BU2603 contract closed at 3171 yuan/ton, down 4.45%. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China all increased. The supply of asphalt may decrease, and the demand is divided between the north and the south. It is recommended to go long on asphalt and short on crude oil [30][31]. 2. Fundamental Changes - The cost is affected by the oil market. The domestic asphalt device maintenance loss increased, and the average operating load rate decreased. The production profit increased. The demand is divided between the north and the south, and the inventory increased [33][34][35]. Polyester 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The cost support for PTA is weakening, and the demand is decreasing. It is expected to transition from de - stocking to inventory accumulation, and the price may decline slightly. Ethylene glycol is expected to maintain inventory accumulation, and the price may have a small - scale callback [57][58]. 2. Main Driving Forces - The downstream consumption demand is decreasing. The supply of PTA is expected to decrease, and the price may decline. The ethylene glycol industry's operating load rate decreased, the inventory increased, and the profit increased slightly [59][60][62]. Polyester Staple Fiber 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The price of polyester staple fiber in the East China market declined last week. This week, the cost support is weak, the supply is loose, and the demand is in an off - season. It is expected that the price will decline [66]. 2. Main Driving Forces - The downstream consumption demand is weakening. The operating load rate of the polyester staple fiber industry is stable, and the supply is loose. The cost and supply - demand factors drag down the price [67][68]. Polyolefin 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The futures and spot prices of polyolefin increased last week. The supply pressure of polypropylene decreased, and the supply pressure of plastics increased slightly. The demand is in an off - season, and it is expected to rise first and then fall [76][84]. 2. Fundamental Changes - Polypropylene has more temporary maintenance, and the production decreases. The production of polyethylene increases slightly. The production profit of different raw materials has different changes. The inventory of two - oil companies decreased, and the downstream operating rate is divided [85][90][99]. Polysilicon 1. Market Review and Outlook - The price of polysilicon increased, but the fundamentals have no improvement expectation. The downstream is in a cycle of production reduction, and the terminal demand is in an off - season [118]. 2. Overview of the Photovoltaic Industry's Fundamentals - The market supervision department has taken regulatory measures. The prices of the photovoltaic industry chain are running strongly, but the supply exceeds demand, and the inventory removal resistance is large [119][121]. Industrial Silicon 1. Futures Review and Outlook - The price of industrial silicon futures declined, and the trading volume and open interest increased. The supply is at a seasonal low, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [138]. 2. Overview of the Industrial Silicon's Fundamentals - The prices of the industrial silicon industry chain are running strongly. The production of industrial silicon is at a seasonal low, the demand is weak, the export is stable, and the inventory is slowly accumulating [139][140][141]. Pulp 1. Pulp Market Review and Outlook - The price of pulp futures declined slightly. The spot prices of imported pulp mostly increased. The fundamentals of pulp changed little, and it is expected to operate in a volatile adjustment [153][154]. 2. Fundamental Changes - The pulp shipment volume of major producing countries decreased in November. China's pulp import volume increased in November. The global pulp inventory days increased, and the domestic and European port inventories decreased. The downstream market is stable [155][161][168].

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The commodity futures market experienced a rebound on January 9, driven by strong performance in precious metals and oil and gas sectors, with the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closing at 1619.62 points, up 0.04% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index also rose to 2234.88 points, reflecting a similar increase of 0.04% [1] Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Precious metals showed strong recovery, with palladium leading the market with a rise of over 6%, while platinum and gold also rebounded significantly from their intraday lows [3] - The market for palladium is shifting from a supply shortage to a surplus, influenced by the concentration of demand in automotive catalysts and the rise of electric vehicles, although short-term bullish sentiment may provide some price support [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices surged, with SC crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil both rising over 3%, driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly in Iran, which raised concerns about potential disruptions in oil production and exports [4] - The market remains focused on the oversupply issue, with expectations that OPEC may increase production in response to rising prices [4] Group 4: Silicon Market Decline - The silicon market faced a sharp decline of over 8% due to regulatory changes and expectations of a return to marginal cost pricing, leading to weakened market sentiment [5] - The shift in regulatory guidance has altered expectations for future silicon capacity clearing, contributing to a significant drop in bullish sentiment previously supported by capacity control [5] Group 5: Nickel Market Trends - Nickel prices continued to decline, with the main contract down 2.67%, primarily due to easing concerns over production cuts from Indonesia [6] - Despite a weak fundamental outlook for nickel, the uncertainty surrounding Indonesian policies may provide some support, leading to expectations of continued price volatility [6] Group 6: Other Commodity Movements - The rubber sector faced downward pressure, with both butadiene rubber and 20 rubber closing down over 2% and 1% respectively [7] - The black series commodities also saw a decline in bullish sentiment, with various products like coking coal, silicon iron, rebar, and hot-rolled coil experiencing different degrees of decrease [7]

Core Insights - The World Economic Forum's "2026 Global Cooperation Barometer" indicates that while multilateralism faces significant challenges, global cooperation remains resilient but insufficient to address major economic, security, and environmental issues [1][2] - The report highlights a shift in the structure of global cooperation, with innovative and small-scale collaborative mechanisms emerging as traditional multilateral channels decline [1] - Key areas of strong cooperation include climate and nature, as well as innovation and technology, while health, trade, and security show varying levels of performance [1] Group 1 - The overall level of global cooperation has remained stable in recent years, but its internal structure is evolving [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of flexible, agile, and clear-targeted cooperation paths to effectively address current global challenges [2] - Countries are redefining their approaches to cooperation, necessitating new mechanisms from trade agreements to public-private partnerships [2] Group 2 - The 56th Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum will take place from January 19-23, 2026, in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland, focusing on the theme of "the spirit of dialogue" [3] - Discussions will center around five global challenges: cooperation in a competitive world, unleashing new growth dynamics, increasing investment in people, promoting innovation responsibly, and achieving prosperity within the Earth's carrying capacity [3]

2026年1月，美国对委内瑞拉实施"石油检疫"封锁，委内瑞拉将对华原油每桶折扣从15美元缩至13美 元，遭中国买家拒绝采购。作为全球最大原油进口国，中国不再为地缘政治溢价买单，这场由美国导 演、委内瑞拉配合的能源围猎，难道注定要以闹剧收场？ 美国祭出 "石油检疫" 毒计 事情得从 2025 年底说起，特朗普政府为切断委内瑞拉马杜罗政府的经济命脉，祭出了所谓 "石油检疫" 计划。这可不是传统经济制裁，而是准军事化的海上封锁威慑。美方放话，任何未经许可运输委内瑞拉 原油的船只，都可能被美国海军"登临检查" 甚至扣押，相关保险公司和航运企业还会遭到二级制裁。 白宫的算盘打得精明，通过拉高运输风险，让委内瑞拉原油在国际市场 "有价无市"。在特朗普看来， 中国作为委内瑞拉原油的主要买家，为维持能源安全，必然会不惜代价继续进口。 这样一来，美国就能掌握主动权，要么中国冒着与美直接冲突的风险高价买油，消耗外汇储备还授人以 柄；要么中国停止进口，让委内瑞拉经济崩盘，美国兵不血刃实现政权更迭。 但这一策略的前提早已过时，美方低估了中国能源进口的多元化程度和商业理性。"石油检疫" 实施 后，运输委内瑞拉原油的隐性成本呈几何级数增 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: PTA, methanol [29][35] - **Bearish with Rebound**: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, LNG, asphalt, glass [1][13][18][44][48][53] - **Bearish with Consolidation**: PVC, soda ash [26][57] - **Oscillating**: Urea [40] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Ethylene glycol [32] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Short - term price rebounds due to Middle East geopolitical disturbances, but medium - to long - term prices are pressured by supply surplus [1][10] - **LPG**: The price rebounds due to cost - side support, but in the long run, it is pressured by the oversupply of upstream crude oil [13][17] - **L**: The cost support improves, and the price continues to rebound, but there is still pressure to destock [18][21] - **PP**: The high - level maintenance in the short term eases the supply pressure, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [22][25] - **PVC**: The upstream and mid - stream inventory accumulates rapidly, and there is a risk of short - term correction [26][28] - **PTA**: The supply - demand pattern is expected to be good, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips [29][31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is an expectation of inventory accumulation, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to short on rebounds [32][34] - **Methanol**: There is a game between weak reality and strong expectation, and the rebound height may be limited [35][37] - **Urea**: It oscillates at a high level, and attention should be paid to the changes in port collection and exports [40][41] - **LNG**: The supply is sufficient, and the gas price is under downward pressure [44][47] - **Asphalt**: Attention should be paid to the import situation of raw materials, and the price still has room to compress [48][52] - **Glass**: The short - term cold repair of the device supports the price, but there is a risk of emotional correction [53][56] - **Soda Ash**: The demand weakens, and the rebound is difficult to be sustainable [57][60] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 3.16%, Brent up 3.39%, and SC down 1.60% [9] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term price is affected by geopolitical factors, but the supply surplus situation remains unchanged. The core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the inventory is accelerating to accumulate [10] - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East has increased, and Indian fuel consumption has reached a record high. US crude oil inventory decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and buy call options for risk control. Pay attention to the range of SC [415 - 435] [12] 3.2 LPG - **Market Review**: On January 8, the PG main contract closed at 4218 yuan/ton, down 0.26% [15] - **Basic Logic**: Saudi Arabia raised the CP contract price, which supported the gas price in the short term. The medium - to long - term price is anchored to the oil price and is under pressure. The supply has decreased, and the downstream demand has resilience [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long run, the price has room to compress. Pay attention to the range of PG [4150 - 4250] [17] 3.3 L - **Futures and Spot Market**: The L05 basis is - 108 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread is - 37 yuan/ton [20] - **Basic Logic**: The basis has strengthened, and the device maintenance has increased. The upstream and mid - stream have started to accumulate inventory. The parking ratio has risen to 13%, and the weighted gross profit has been compressed [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of L [6500 - 6750] [21] 3.4 PP - **Futures and Spot Market**: The PP05 basis is - 145 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread is - 52 yuan/ton [24] - **Basic Logic**: The total commercial inventory has accumulated, and the high - level maintenance will be maintained in the short term. The supply - demand is weak, and the parking ratio has risen to 22% [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of PP [6400 - 6550] [25] 3.5 PVC - **Futures and Spot Market**: The V05 basis is - 255 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread is - 137 yuan/ton [27] - **Basic Logic**: The upstream and mid - stream inventory has accumulated rapidly. The domestic start - up has increased to 80%, and the demand is in the off - season. The cost support has strengthened [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of V [4800 - 4900] [28] 3.6 PTA - **Futures and Spot Market**: As of December 31, TA05 closed at 5110 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 13 yuan/ton. The TA5 - 9 spread is 100 yuan/ton [30] - **Basic Logic**: The valuation has improved, and the processing fee and profit have increased. The supply is relatively stable, and the downstream demand is good but expected to weaken. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy TA05 on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA05 [5030 - 5110] [31] 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Futures and Spot Market**: The EG05 basis is - 125 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread is - 93 yuan/ton [32] - **Basic Logic**: The main contract closing price is at a low valuation. The domestic start - up load has increased, and the overseas device maintenance has increased. The downstream demand is good but expected to weaken, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [33] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions and pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG05 [3790 - 3880] [34] 3.8 Methanol - **Futures and Spot Market**: The main contract has reduced positions and risen, and the East China basis and the 1 - 5 spread have strengthened [37] - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low. The domestic and overseas device start - up loads have increased. The supply pressure is expected to ease in January, and the demand has weakened slightly [37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy methanol 05 on dips. Pay attention to the range of MA05 [2210 - 2250] [39] 3.9 Urea - **Futures and Spot Market**: The urea main contract closed at 1749 yuan/ton, and the Shandong small - particle basis is - 39 yuan/ton [42] - **Basic Logic**: The Shandong small - particle urea spot price has stabilized. The supply pressure is expected to increase in mid - January, and the demand has weakened recently. The social inventory has decreased but is still at a relatively high level [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on UR05 on dips. Pay attention to the range of UR05 [1750 - 1780] [43] 3.10 LNG - **Market Review**: On January 7, the NG main contract closed at 3.525 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 5.22% [46] - **Basic Logic**: The short - term rebound is due to an accident in a US energy company. The supply is relatively abundant, and the gas price is under pressure [47] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In winter, the demand has support, but the supply is sufficient, and the gas price is under downward pressure. Pay attention to the range of NG [3.263 - 3.695] [47] 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Review**: On January 8, the BU main contract closed at 3117 yuan/ton, down 1.08% [49] - **Basic Logic**: The South American geopolitics has affected the raw material supply. The production has decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. The inventory has increased [51] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still room for compression. Pay attention to the range of BU [3100 - 3250] [52] 3.12 Glass - **Futures and Spot Market**: The FG05 basis is - 143 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread is - 86 yuan/ton [55] - **Basic Logic**: The factory inventory has decreased for two consecutive times, and the daily melting volume has continued to decline. The short - term cold repair of the device supports the price, but there is a risk of emotional correction [56] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of FG [1100 - 1150] [56] 3.13 Soda Ash - **Futures and Spot Market**: The SA05 basis is - 34 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread is - 66 yuan/ton [59] - **Basic Logic**: The factory inventory has started to accumulate, and the demand has weakened. The restart of the device has increased, and the long - term supply is loose [60] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of SA [1180 - 1230] [60]

Group 1 - The current trading price of London gold is around 1003.70 yuan per gram, with a slight decline of 0.14% [1] - The highest price reached 1006.41 yuan per gram, while the lowest was 999.48 yuan per gram, indicating a short-term oscillating trend [1] Group 2 - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is a focal point for the market, with economists predicting an addition of 60,000 jobs in December, slightly lower than the previous month's 64,000 [3] - The unemployment rate is expected to decrease to 4.5%, despite signs of a cooling labor market, such as an increase in unemployment claims and a significant drop in job vacancies [3] - If the non-farm data meets or falls below expectations, it may strengthen market expectations for interest rate cuts, supporting gold prices [3] Group 3 - Key support levels for gold are identified at 4445 and 4435, which correspond to Fibonacci retracement levels and previous price action [4] - The primary resistance level to watch is at 4500/4501, with further resistance at 4550, which is a previous high [4]