Core Insights - Australia's unemployment rate decreased to 4.3% in October, down from 4.5% in September, indicating a tight labor market and supporting the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision to maintain interest rates [1][2] - Employment increased by 42,200 jobs in October, all from full-time positions, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 20,000 [1] - The RBA's cautious stance on monetary policy is reinforced by the resilient labor market, which may reignite inflationary pressures [1][3] Labor Market and Economic Indicators - The labor market remains tight, with high job vacancy rates and a significant proportion of businesses facing recruitment difficulties [3] - Consumer confidence has improved, with optimistic respondents outnumbering pessimistic ones for the first time in four years [3] - Housing loan volumes reached a record high in Q3, driven mainly by investor loans [3] Market Reactions and Predictions - Following the employment data release, traders reduced expectations for RBA rate cuts next year, leading to a rise in the Australian dollar and a jump in three-year government bond yields [1][2] - The spread between three-year and ten-year government bond yields has narrowed due to expectations of reduced bond issuance this fiscal year [2] - The RBA forecasts the unemployment rate to remain at 4.4% over the forecast period, with employment growth expected to slow in the coming years [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. government's preparation to end the shutdown has boosted market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, leading to an increase in gold prices. Gold prices are highly sensitive to changes in monetary policy, and future trends will continue to be influenced by evolving rate cut expectations [1] - From a medium to long-term perspective, central bank demand for gold and investment interest in monetary easing and phase-based hedging will continue to drive precious metal prices higher. In the short term, London gold is focusing on a resistance level of $4,150, with support between $4,000 and $4,050. Silver has support at $49.5 to $50 and resistance at $52.5. As liquidity tightness eases, precious metals may continue to show a strong performance [1] - Despite recent corrections in precious metals, volatility has significantly decreased, and the London silver spot has returned to a premium state, indicating ongoing tightness in the spot market. With the U.S. government likely to restart and a December rate cut being a high probability event, the macro environment remains favorable for bullish positions [1] Group 2 - As of November 13, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) surged by 3.32%, with constituent stocks such as Yuguang Gold Lead (600531) up by 7.88% and China Gold International (02099) up by 7.60%. The Gold Stock ETF (159322) rose by 3.24%, closing at 1.63 yuan. Over the past week, the Gold Stock ETF has accumulated a rise of 3.69% [2] - The Gold Stock ETF has seen a net value increase of 68.27% over the past year, ranking 22 out of 3,157 index stock funds, placing it in the top 0.70%. The fund has achieved a maximum monthly return of 20.05% since inception, with a historical one-year profit probability of 100% [3] - The Gold Stock ETF closely tracks the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index, which selects 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales from the mainland and Hong Kong markets. As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 67.97% of the total [6]

11月11日，《金融时报》消息，英国家统计局发布的2025年6-9月期间，英失业率升至5%，雇员总数较 去年9月同期下降0.4%，从数值看同期约减少了11.7万个岗位；工资增速放缓，周工资年度增速从5-8月 的4.8%降至6-9月4.6%。该失业率数字为近10年来（不含疫情期间）最高值，也高于此前经济学家4.9% 的预测值；同时，该数字的披露对于即将于11月26日宣布今年秋季预算案的英政府而言不啻于一次打 击。预计财相里夫斯将在秋季预算中宣布增税举措以弥补约300亿英镑的财政漏洞。 智库决议基金经济学家康敏奈提（Nye Cominetti）认为英国劳动力市场呈现普遍疲软情况，呼吁英财相 在其即将宣布的秋季预算中避免给雇主增加更多成本并保障工薪阶层利益。 许多经济学家认为相较于进一步提升影响就业的税收，选择上调所得税税率造成的经济负面影响可能更 小，不过上调所得税有违工党的竞选纲领。雇主们认为如果政府选择推出限制薪资牺牲计划税收优惠的 政策，预计这种政策会造成和政府宣布上调雇主的国民贡献税率同样的效果（即雇主招聘成本上升，影 响招聘意愿）。 英工作和养老金大臣麦克法登（Pat McFadden）表示失业率数据显 ...

Core Viewpoint - A-shares experienced a collective rebound with significant gains in various sectors, particularly in lithium battery, photovoltaic, and precious metals, while traditional dividend sectors faced declines [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.80%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.68% [1]. - Main capital flowed into the ChiNext weight stocks, with strong performance across various themes, including solid-state batteries and lithium resources [1]. Group 2: Sector Highlights - **Lithium Battery Sector**: The lithium battery concept saw a strong surge, with companies like Huasheng Lithium and Ningde Times reaching new highs due to rising demand for energy storage and increasing prices of electrolyte additives [2]. - **Photovoltaic Sector**: The photovoltaic sector also experienced a rally, driven by government guidance on renewable energy integration and a response to market rumors, with companies like Lianhong Xinke and Hengxing Technology seeing significant gains [3]. - **Precious Metals**: International precious metal futures saw a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 2.07% to $4201.4 per ounce, supported by strong market adjustments and expectations of continued ETF inflows [4]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - **Shenwan Hongyuan**: The firm believes that the A-share market will maintain a volatile trend, with the spring of 2026 potentially marking a phase peak, but not the peak of the current bull market [5]. - **Zhongyuan Securities**: The firm suggests that the Shanghai Composite Index is likely to consolidate around the 4000-point mark, with a balanced market style expected to continue [6]. - **Everbright Securities**: The firm notes that the market is currently in a policy vacuum but anticipates strong policy expectations for December, with a positive outlook for sectors like photovoltaic and controllable nuclear fusion [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals. In the short - term, precious metals are strengthening. London gold's resistance has moved up to 4200, and if broken, it may retest the previous high of 4380. Its support is at 4120. Silver has skyrocketed due to the slow transfer of the COMEX 2512 main contract, with a resistance level moved up to 54.5, support at 51, and strong support at 49.5 - 50 [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Market Quotes Review** - On Wednesday, precious metal prices rose strongly due to the expected passage of the US temporary spending bill and the Fed's internal personnel adjustment favoring loose - money expectations. However, the possible absence of the US October CPI and non - farm payroll reports restricts the Fed's possibility of cutting interest rates at the December FOMC meeting. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4201.4 per ounce, up 2.07%; COMEX silver 2512 contract closed at $53.23 per ounce, up 4.9%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 945.76 yuan per gram, up 0.16%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 12073 yuan per kilogram, up 2.02% [2]. **Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings** - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly rebounded. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 40.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 59.4%. For January 29, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 23.5%, a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 51.5%, and a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 25%. For March 19, the probability of unchanged rates is 13.4%, a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 39.4%, and a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 36.4%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 0.28 tons to 1046.64 tons, while iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 15088.63 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 8.8 tons to 583.1 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 7.9 tons to 822.4 tons as of the week ending November 7 [3]. **This Week's Focus** - In terms of data, focus on the US CPI report on Thursday evening. Regarding events, on Friday at 01:15, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak on monetary policy; at 01:20, 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack will participate in a fireside chat; at 23:05, 2025 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid will speak on economic outlook and monetary policy. On Saturday at 03:30, 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan will participate in a fireside chat [4]. **Price and Inventory Data Tables** - **Precious Metal Price Table**: It shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures, as well as the CME gold - silver ratio [6]. - **Inventory and Position Table**: It presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE, CME, and SGX gold and silver inventories, as well as SHFE and fund positions in gold and silver [16][18]. - **Stock - Bond - Commodity Summary Table**: It includes the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of the US government reopening is high, with economic data cooling in advance and the expectation of interest rate cuts rising again, leading to an increase in gold and silver prices. The end of the US government shutdown is optimistically expected, risk appetite is recovering, and gold and silver prices are showing strength. COMEX silver has seen large short - term trading orders around 2 am for four consecutive days, and its price may fluctuate significantly [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US government is expected to reopen, economic data cooling expectations are ahead, and interest rate cut expectations are rising again, causing the gold price to increase. The US three major stock indexes closed with mixed results, European three major stock indexes closed up across the board, US bond yields were mixed, the 10 - year US bond yield remained flat at 4.067%, the US dollar index fell 0.01% to 99.47, the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1125, and COMEX gold futures rose 2.07% to $4201.4 per ounce. The basis is - 2.9, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 1800 kilograms to 89616 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the main long positions decreased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price soared. COMEX silver futures rose 4.90% to $53.23 per ounce. The basis is 0, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 8824 kilograms to 583060 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the main long positions increased [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The US government's reopening expectation, economic data cooling, and interest rate cut expectations are the main factors affecting the gold price. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to - 3 yuan/gram. The optimistic expectation of the end of the US government shutdown, the recovery of risk appetite, and the return of interest rate cut expectations make the gold price strong [4]. - **Silver**: The silver price has shown an abnormal increase, with a significant increase in positions. COMEX silver has seen large short - term trading orders around 2 am for four consecutive days, and the silver price may fluctuate significantly. The silver premium has converged to 250 yuan/gram. The end of the US government shutdown is optimistically expected, risk appetite is recovering, and the silver price remains strong under the push of funds [5]. 3. Today's Focus - 08:00: The US House of Representatives will vote on the draft to end the government shutdown. - 08:30: Australia's October employment report (including employment population and unemployment rate). - Time TBD: The 2025 6G Development Conference will be held in Beijing Economic - Technological Development Area from November 13 - 14. - 15:00: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce will hold its second regular press conference in November, and the UK's preliminary GDP for the third quarter will be released. - 17:00: The International Energy Agency (IEA) will release its monthly crude oil market report, the European Central Bank will release an economic report, and the Governing Council member of the European Central Bank and the Governor of the Bank of France will speak. - 20:00: Greene, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England, will speak. - 21:00: Daly, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (a voting member of the FOMC in 2027), will talk about balance sheet management, and Elderson, an Executive Board member of the European Central Bank, will speak. - 23:30: Kashkari, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (a voting member of the FOMC in 2026), will speak. - Next day 01:15: Musalem, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (a voting member of the FOMC in 2025), will participate in a fireside chat related to monetary policy. - Next day 01:20: Hammack, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (a voting member of the FOMC in 2026), will participate in a discussion. - Next day 01:30: Tschudin of the Swiss National Bank will speak at a money market event in Geneva. - Next day 04:10: Prasanna Gai, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, will speak. - Next day 06:10: McPhee, an Assistant Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, will participate in a fireside chat [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, and the inflation expectation has shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the gold price to fall. However, the latter two of the three major factors (US government shutdown, Federal Reserve interest rate cut, and Sino - US tariff escalation concerns) have significantly improved or even reversed, and the support for the gold price has weakened significantly [9]. - **Silver**: The silver price still mainly follows the gold price. The tariff concern has a stronger impact on the silver price, and the silver price is prone to an enlarged increase. The factors affecting the silver price include both positive and negative aspects. Positive factors are global turmoil, significant shadow Federal Reserve, continued interest rate cut expectations, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to rising inflation, and the support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors. Negative factors are the rising expectation of stopping interest rate cuts, large differences within the Federal Reserve, less - than - expected European fiscal expansion, the US standing out again, the deterioration of risk preference, and the expectation of Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations [13][14]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long positions decreased. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 2966 to 168369, the short positions decreased by 453 to 70081, and the net position decreased by 2513 to 98288. The SPDR gold ETF position has increased in a fluctuating manner [4][31][35]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the main long positions increased. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 19974 to 387780, the short positions increased by 9470 to 265083, and the net position increased by 10504 to 122697. The silver ETF position is fluctuating and still higher than the same period in the past two years [5][33][38].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. It gives individual outlooks for various commodities, including bullish, bearish, and neutral views [2][5]. 2. Core Views - **Precious Metals**: Gold shows a rising trend due to increased expectations of interest rate cuts, while silver hits a new high. Both have a trend strength of 1 [2][6]. - **Base Metals**: Copper prices rise as market sentiment improves; zinc shows minor fluctuations; lead prices are supported by decreasing overseas inventories; tin prices exceed 300,000 yuan; aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish; nickel is in a low - level oscillation due to high inventory and risks in Indonesia; stainless steel lacks upward momentum [2][10][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Iron ore prices decline from high levels due to inventory accumulation; coke follows the downward trend; coking coal's valuation drops due to fluctuating supply expectations; LPG has limited demand improvement and high - valued futures; PTA and p - xylene are in a high - level oscillation; MEG is bearish due to large supply pressure [2][20][38]. - **Agricultural Products**: Palm oil's rebound is limited, and there is a risk of a second dip; soybean oil spreads continue to widen; corn is short - term bullish; sugar requires attention on India's sugar - crushing situation; cotton lacks upward drivers and its price slightly drops [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's Shanghai futures contract 2512 closed at 945.76 yuan with a daily decline of 0.33%, and the overnight session closed at 963.32 yuan with a 1.78% increase. Silver's Shanghai futures contract 2512 closed at 12,073 yuan with a 1.65% increase, and the overnight session closed at 12,508 yuan with a 4.81% increase. The trend strength for both is 1 [6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 86,840 yuan with a 0.24% increase, and the overnight session closed at 87,430 yuan with a 0.68% increase. The trend strength is 1 [10]. - **Zinc**: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,680 yuan with a 0.02% increase. The trend strength is 0 [13]. - **Lead**: The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,660 yuan with a 1.26% increase. Overseas inventory reduction supports the price. The trend strength is 0 [16]. - **Tin**: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 292,440 yuan with a 1.48% increase. The price has exceeded 300,000 yuan. The trend strength is 1 [19]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish, alumina is in a range - bound oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths are 1 for aluminum, 0 for alumina, and 1 for aluminum alloy [23]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is in a low - level oscillation due to high inventory and risks in Indonesia, and stainless steel lacks upward drivers. The trend strengths are 0 for both [25]. Energy and Chemicals - **Iron Ore**: The futures price closed at 774 yuan with a 1.44% increase. Due to inventory accumulation, the price has declined from high levels. The trend strength is 0 [38]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke follows the downward trend, and coking coal's valuation drops due to fluctuating supply expectations. The trend strengths are - 1 for both [50]. - **LPG, PTA, p - Xylene, and MEG**: LPG has limited demand improvement and high - valued futures; PTA and p - xylene are in a high - level oscillation; MEG is bearish due to large supply pressure [2][56]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil's rebound is limited, and there is a risk of a second dip; soybean oil spreads continue to widen [5]. - **Corn, Sugar, and Cotton**: Corn is short - term bullish; sugar requires attention on India's sugar - crushing situation; cotton lacks upward drivers and its price slightly drops [2][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising [2]. - Silver: Reached a new high [2]. - Copper: Market sentiment has recovered, leading to price increases [2]. - Zinc: Experiencing minor fluctuations [2]. - Lead: Reduced overseas inventories are supporting prices [2]. - Tin: The price has exceeded 300,000 yuan [2]. - Aluminum: Showing a slightly bullish and volatile trend [2]. - Alumina: Trading within a range [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: High inventories are accumulating, conflicting with risks in Indonesia, resulting in low - level fluctuations [2]. - Stainless Steel: Lacking upward momentum, but also with limited downside potential [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver - **Price Movements**: - Gold:沪金2512昨日收盘价945.76，日跌幅 - 0.33%，夜盘收盘价963.32，夜盘涨幅1.78%；Comex黄金2512昨日收盘价4201.40，日涨幅1.65% [4]. - Silver:沪银2512昨日收盘价12073，日涨幅1.65%，夜盘收盘价12508.00，夜盘涨幅4.81%；Comex白银2512昨日收盘价53.230，日涨幅4.22% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - Gold:沪金25122510昨日成交260,377，较前日减少21,972；持仓124,540，较前日减少6,505；Comex黄金2512成交278,020，较前日增加38,441；持仓278,065，较前日减少13,785 [4]. - Silver:沪银2512昨日成交101,561，较前日增加31,704；持仓88,600，较前日减少5,753；Comex白银2512成交155,458，较前日增加57,975；持仓122,583，较前日无变化 [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: - Gold: Comex黄金（金衡盎司，前日）库存37,575,140，较前日减少154,316 [4]. - Silver: Comex白银（金衡盎司，前日）库存478,558,059，较前日减少546,636 [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of 1 [6]. 3.2 Copper - **Price Movements**:沪铜主力合约昨日收盘价86,840，日涨幅0.24%，夜盘收盘价87430，夜盘涨幅0.68%；伦铜3M电子盘昨日收盘价10,897，日涨幅0.53% [8]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪铜指数昨日成交159,202，较前日增加2,758；持仓552,936，较前日减少173；伦铜3M电子盘成交19,884，较前日增加6,498；持仓319,000，较前日减少5,408 [8]. - **Inventory and Spread**: - Inventory:沪铜期货库存44,088，较前日增加1,124；伦铜库存136,250，较前日无变化 [8]. - Spread: LME铜升贴水较前日变动 - 6.43；上海铜现货对LMEcash价差较前日增加72 [8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper has a trend intensity of 1 [10]. 3.3 Zinc - **Price Movements**:沪锌主力收盘价22680，涨幅0.02%；伦锌3M电子盘收盘价3069，跌幅 - 0.53% [11]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪锌主力成交量71426，较前日减少10276；持仓量105905，较前日减少1570；伦锌成交量9073，较前日减少844；持仓量220862，较前日增加946 [11]. - **Inventory and Spread**: - Inventory:沪锌期货库存70890，较前日增加372；LME锌库存35875，较前日增加575 [11]. - Spread: ZN00 - ZN01较前日变动15 [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0 [13]. 3.4 Lead - **Price Movements**:沪铅主力收盘价17660，涨幅1.26%；伦铅3M电子盘收盘价2067，涨幅0.51% [14]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪铅主力成交量55843，较前日增加24988；持仓量50539，较前日减少4568；伦铅成交量8189，较前日减少1092；持仓量155924，较前日增加2283 [14]. - **Inventory and Spread**: - Inventory:沪铅期货库存24686，较前日增加917；LME铅库存225225，较前日减少1500 [14]. - Spread: PB00 - PB01较前日变动 - 15 [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead has a trend intensity of 0 [15]. 3.5 Tin - **Price Movements**:沪锡主力合约昨日收盘价292,440，日涨幅1.48%；伦锡3M电子盘昨日收盘价37,405，日涨幅1.93% [17]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪锡主力合约昨日成交124,419，较前日增加74,980；持仓40,779，较前日增加4,387；伦锡3M电子盘成交180，较前日减少9；持仓13,988，较前日增加53 [17]. - **Inventory and Spread**: - Inventory:沪锡期货库存5,446，较前日减少136；伦锡库存3,055，较前日增加40 [17]. - Spread: SMM 1锡锭价格较前日增加1,500；长江有色1锡平均价较前日增加4,300 [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin has a trend intensity of 1 [20]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Movements**: - Aluminum:沪铝主力合约收盘价21880；LME铝3M收盘价2880 [21]. - Alumina:沪氧化铝主力合约收盘价2821 [21]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy:铝合金主力合约收盘价21245 [21]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - Aluminum:沪铝主力合约成交量223798；持仓量420066 [21]. - Alumina:沪氧化铝主力合约成交量267963；持仓量412758 [21]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy:铝合金主力合约成交量6280；持仓量15573 [21]. - **Inventory and Spread**: - Aluminum: LME注销仓单占比6.19%；LME铝cash - 3M价差 - 23.69 [21]. - Alumina: No significant spread data mentioned [21]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy:近月合约对连一合约价差 - 235.00 [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum and cast aluminum alloy have a trend intensity of 1, while alumina has a trend intensity of 0 [23]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Movements**: - Nickel:沪镍主力收盘价118,710；1进口镍119,000 [24]. - Stainless Steel:不锈钢主力收盘价12,425 [24]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - Nickel:沪镍主力成交量98,248 [24]. - Stainless Steel:不锈钢主力成交量139,703 [24]. - **Industry - related Data**: - Nickel: 8 - 12%高镍生铁（出厂价）909；镍板进口利润 - 1,577 [24]. - Stainless Steel: 304/2B卷 - 毛边（无锡）宏旺/北部湾12,825 [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0 [28].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Gold prices are oscillating around $4,100 per ounce after three consecutive days of gains, with an annual increase of over 55% in 2025, the best annual performance since 1979. The restart of the US government brings risk - preference repair, while weak employment data, declining business confidence, and interest - rate cut expectations support the medium - term bullish logic. Although the short - term rebound of the US dollar restrains the increase, the gold price center is still supported [1][3]. - Silver has broken through the previous high to $51.7 per ounce, reaching a new stage high. When gold is consolidating, funds are flowing to more volatile precious metals. The tight situation in the London market has been structurally alleviated, but the spot price still gets support from capital momentum and may further rise if gold prices remain strong and the US dollar continues to decline [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections **Key Information** - US House members ended a 53 - day recess and returned to Washington to vote to end the longest government shutdown in US history [2]. - The Russian Ministry of Finance will issue two types of domestic government bonds denominated in RMB on December 8, with maturities ranging from three to seven years [2]. - As of late October, US companies cut more than 11,000 jobs per week, and the consumer confidence continued to decline [2][3]. - China's Ministry of Commerce stated that the US suspension of the export control penetration rule is an important measure to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, and the two sides will continue to discuss the arrangement after the one - year suspension [2]. **Price Logic** - **Gold**: Gold is consolidating in the short - term high range ($4,100 - $4,150). The restart of the US government will bring a window of intensive data in the next three weeks. Preliminary alternative indicators show weak economic momentum. The decline in business confidence and employment slowdown mean that the downward pressure on real interest rates in the fourth quarter persists, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts has room for further strengthening, so the gold price center is still supported [3]. - **Silver**: Silver has broken through the previous high. The tight situation in the London market has been alleviated, and the supply has been replenished. However, the spot price is still supported by capital momentum. If the gold price remains strong and the US dollar continues to decline, the silver price is expected to rise further [3]. **Outlook** - In the short term, attention should be paid to the first batch of macro - data after the government restart and the speeches of Federal Reserve officials. If employment and business confidence remain weak, the pricing of an interest - rate cut in December may be further consolidated. The gold price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation, with the London gold price in the range of $4,070 - $4,200 per ounce, and the London silver price in the range of $49 - $53 per ounce [4][7]. **Commodity Index** - **Composite Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index all showed positive growth on November 12, 2025, with increases of 0.40%, 0.48%, 0.58%, and 0.44% respectively [44]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On November 12, 2025, the precious metals index rose 0.27% for the day, 3.84% in the past 5 days, - 0.77% in the past month, and 52.03% since the beginning of the year [45].

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