Report Overview - Report Title: "Asphalt Morning Report" [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team - Report Date: August 11, 2025 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core View - Not explicitly stated in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Prices - The prices of various BU asphalt futures contracts decreased from July 10 to August 8. For example, the BU main contract dropped from 3629 to 3478, a decrease of 181 [4]. 3.2 Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume increased by 7967 on a daily basis and decreased by 26929 on a weekly basis to 241736 on August 8. The open interest increased by 5075 daily and decreased by 44962 weekly to 454594 [4]. 3.3 Spot Market Prices - Spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline. For instance, the low - end price in the Shandong market decreased by 50 from July 10 to August 8, reaching 3550 [4]. 3.4 Basis and Calendar Spreads - The basis in different regions generally increased. For example, the Shandong basis increased from - 49 to 72, a rise of 131. Calendar spreads such as 06 - 09 and 09 - 12 also showed certain changes [4]. 3.5 Crack Spreads and Profits - The asphalt Brent crack spread increased from - 96 to 67, a rise of 130. The ordinary refinery's comprehensive profit increased from 420 to 506, an increase of 88 [4]. 3.6 Related Prices - Brent crude oil prices decreased from 70.2 to 66.4, a decrease of 3.2. The gasoline and diesel prices in the Shandong market also showed certain fluctuations [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating repeatedly [2] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Coke: Strong - biased oscillation [2] - Coking coal: Strong - biased oscillation [2] - Logs: Oscillating repeatedly [2] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various black - series commodities, along with their fundamental data and macro - industry news, helping investors understand the market situation of these commodities [2][5][8] Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday's futures closing price was 790.0 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan/ton (-0.38%); yesterday's position was 308,077 hands, down 27,288 hands. Imported and domestic ore prices mostly declined slightly. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [5] - **Macro & Industry News**: In July, the national consumer price was flat year - on - year [5] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [5] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For RB2510, the closing price was 3,213 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (-0.71%); for HC2510, it was 3,428 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.55%). Spot prices in different regions showed different degrees of decline or stability. There were also changes in basis and spreads [8] - **Macro & Industry News**: In late July, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 7.4% month - on - month, pig iron by 4.5%, and steel increased by 0.5%. On August 7, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different trends [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese declined. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia also decreased. There were changes in basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads [12] - **Macro & Industry News**: There were price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions; a manganese mine enterprise signed a long - term contract; manganese ore inventory in ports changed [13][14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of JM2509 and J2509 declined. Spot prices of coking coal and coke showed different trends, and there were changes in basis and spreads [15] - **Macro & Industry News**: In July, the national consumer price was flat year - on - year [16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [17] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts showed different changes. Spot prices of different types of logs in different regions also had different trends [19] - **Macro & Industry News**: In July, the national consumer price was flat year - on - year [21] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ferroalloy market shows a pattern of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, with a relatively stable fundamental situation. However, there is a need to be vigilant about the potential pressure caused by the continuous increase in supply in the later stage. After the cooling of the "anti - involution" trading sentiment, the weights of the delivery and basis logic for the 09 contract are gradually increasing, and it is expected to fluctuate around the warehouse receipt cost this week [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, despite the previous call for self - restraint in production by leading enterprises, the production of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese continued to rise slightly this week due to price increases. On the demand side, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased slightly, and the molten iron output of 247 steel mills also declined, but remained at a high level. Steel production increased slightly month - on - month, and the number of steel mill tenders also rose, providing support for alloys. In terms of cost, electricity prices were stable this week, and port manganese ore prices were generally firm, with overseas mines mostly raising their September US dollar quotes slightly. Overall, the alloy market shows a pattern of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, with a stable fundamental situation [4]. - **Market sentiment**: The leading "anti - involution" varieties showed differentiation this week. Although polysilicon and coking coal both closed up on the weekly line, their upward momentum slowed down significantly, and their driving effect on other commodities also weakened. After entering August, the weights of delivery and basis logic for the 09 contract began to gradually increase, and it is expected that commodity performance will continue to differentiate [4]. Strategy - **Single - side trading**: Operate around the warehouse receipt cost [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the basis is at a low level [5]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Supply and Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 2.4032 million tons, a decrease of 0.0039 million tons month - on - month. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel products was 20,300 tons, an increase of 300 tons month - on - month; the weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel products was 125,200 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons month - on - month [10]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 34.32%, an increase of 0.56% month - on - month; the national ferrosilicon production was 109,100 tons, an increase of 4,700 tons month - on - month. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 43.43%, an increase of 1.25% month - on - month; the national silicomanganese production was 195,800 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons month - on - month [11]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 8th, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 72,000 tons, an increase of 6,200 tons month - on - month; the inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 161,500 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons month - on - month [12]. Spot Price - Basis - Graphs show the market prices of Inner Mongolia silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 and Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon 72%FeSi, as well as the basis of the main contract for Inner Mongolia silicomanganese and ferrosilicon from 2021 - 2025 [17]. Production Situation of Double - Silicon Enterprises - Graphs present the weekly production and operating rates of Chinese silicomanganese and ferrosilicon enterprises from 2021 - 2025 [23]. Steel Mill Production Situation - Graphs display the blast furnace capacity utilization rate, weekly total steel production, profitability rate, social total steel inventory, and daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills from 2021 - 2025 [29]. Silicomanganese Cost and Profit - There are tables and graphs showing the production costs, profits, and monthly production proportions of silicomanganese in different regions on August 7, 2025 [31]. Cost - Manganese Ore Price - Graphs show the prices of South African Mn36.5% semi - carbonate manganese lumps at Tianjin Port, South African South32 semi - carbonate manganese lumps FOB quotes, Tianjin Port manganese ore prices, and manganese ore forward FOB quotes from 2021 - 2025 [39]. Ferrosilicon Cost and Profit - There are tables and graphs presenting the production costs, profits, and monthly production proportions of ferrosilicon in different regions on August 7, 2025 [41]. Cost - Carbon Element and Electricity Price - Graphs show the prices of Fugu blue carbon small materials, Yulin thermal coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices from 2021 - 2025 [48][51]. Double - Silicon Steel Tendering Prices of Representative Hebei Steel Mills - Graphs display the procurement prices of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B and silicomanganese 6517 by Hebei Iron and Steel Group from 2020 - 2025 [53]. Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon Supply - Monthly Production - Graphs show the cumulative and monthly production of Chinese silicomanganese and ferrosilicon from 2021 - 2025 [60][63]. Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon Import and Export - Graphs present the monthly net imports of Chinese manganese ore and the monthly net exports of ferrosilicon from 2012 - 2025 [68]. Magnesium Metal Demand - Graphs show the price of Fugu magnesium metal Mg99.9% and the cumulative production of magnesium metal in Yulin, Shaanxi from 2013 - 2025 [70]. Silicon - Iron Inventory of Alloy Plants vs. Steel Mills - Graphs display the silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants, the regional silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants, the available days of silicon - iron inventory in steel mills, and the regional available days of silicon - iron inventory in steel mills from 2021 - 2025 [74]. Manganese Ore Inventory of Alloy Plants, Steel Mills, and Ports - Graphs show the available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills, the regional available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills, the total manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port, and the silicomanganese inventory of alloy plants from 2021 - 2025 [77].

Report Summary Core View - In the context of the expected new crop harvest and the reality of old - crop inventory shortage, the pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness is prominent. From late July to early August, multiple policies and industry events are in the window period. Domestic policy - related meeting contents, Sino - US trade negotiation progress, the realization of new cotton harvest, whether the import sliding - scale duty quota will be increased and the increase amount have a significant impact on the Zhengzhou cotton outlook, especially the increase of import sliding - scale duty quota has a greater impact on the old - crop supply - demand and near - term contracts [4] Data Summary Domestic Cotton Futures - CF01 on August 7 was 13835, down 15 (-0.11%) from August 6; CF09 was 13670, down 20 (-0.15%); CF09 - 01 was - 165, down 5 from August 6 [3] Domestic Cotton Spot - In Xinjiang on August 7, the price was 15089, up 6 (0.04%); in Henan it was 15220, up 15 (0.10%); in Shandong it was 15169, up 20 (0.13%); Xinjiang - main continuous basis was 1419, up 26 [3] Domestic Cotton Yarn Futures and Spot - Domestic cotton yarn futures CY on August 7 was 19705, down 5 (-0.03%); domestic cotton yarn spot C32S price index was 20620, down 20 (-0.10%) [3] US Cotton Spot - US cotton spot CT (USD/ pound) on August 7 was 67, unchanged (0.00%); the arrival price was 76.50, down 0.5 (-0.65%); 1% quota pick - up price was 13480, down 87 (-0.64%); sliding - scale duty pick - up price was 14282, down 53 (-0.37%) [3] Spread Data - Yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 5870, up 10; yarn - cotton spread (spot) was 802, up 34; the spot internal - external spread was 1689, up 107 [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific report industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market risk preference remains high. For stock index futures, it is recommended to continue holding long positions; for stock index options, it is advisable to appropriately reduce the directional exposure of small - cap stocks in the short term; for treasury bond futures, the bond market sentiment is relatively warm [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **View**: Continue to hold long positions. The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts are - 8.47 points, - 1.51 points, - 38.14 points, and - 34.15 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of - 2.38 points, 0.31 points, - 7.57 points, and - 7.24 points. The spreads between current - month and next - month contracts are 13.6 points, - 1.0 point, 73.0 points, and 78.0 points, with a month - on - month change of 3.2 points, - 0.4 point, 9.4 points, and 6.2 points. The total open interest changes are 7431 lots, 2077 lots, 3443 lots, and 4114 lots. The upward trend of the market has not changed. In August, the tone is still positive due to factors such as strong capital inflow, low probability of mid - report disappointment, and the weakening US dollar index. It is recommended to continue holding IM long positions [8]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **View**: Appropriately reduce the directional exposure of small - cap stocks in the short term. The underlying market showed mixed trends and was in a volatile state. The trading volume of the options market was 6 billion and 60 million yuan, a 16.85% increase from the previous day. The sentiment indicators remained similar to the previous day, with the MO skew reaching a half - year high, indicating continued defensive sentiment in the small - cap segment. Volatility increased in small - cap and ChiNext stocks. It is recommended to continue the medium - term covered call strategy and reduce the short - term directional exposure of small - cap stocks [2][9]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **View**: The bond market sentiment is warm. Most treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year main contracts rising by 0.03%, 0.05%, and 0.05% respectively, and the 2 - year main contract remaining flat. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined. Although the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 12.25 billion yuan in the open market, the capital market remained loose. The central bank's 70 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation is beneficial to the bond market. However, the high market risk preference and potential factors such as the increase in long - term bond supply in the third quarter and the introduction of growth - stabilizing policies may have an impact on the bond market. Different strategies are proposed for different trading purposes [3][10][11]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic calendar includes data such as the US factory orders in June, the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in July, China's trade balance in July, the UK central bank's benchmark interest rate in August, the US initial jobless claims in the week ending August 2nd, and China's M2 money supply annual rate in July [12]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Export**: In the first seven months, ASEAN was China's largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 4.29 trillion yuan, a 9.4% increase. The EU was the second - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 3.35 trillion yuan, a 3.9% increase. The US was the third - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 2.42 trillion yuan, an 11.1% decrease. China's total imports and exports to the Belt and Road Initiative countries increased by 5.5% [13]. - **Retail and Commerce**: The Shanghai SASAC launched a campaign for the rejuvenation of local state - owned time - honored brands, aiming to promote brand development through various measures such as open cooperation, improving market - oriented operation mechanisms, and attracting professional talents [13]. - **Power**: Shandong Province issued a reform plan for the market - based on - grid electricity price of new energy, stating that the on - grid electricity of new energy projects such as wind and solar power will enter the power market, and the on - grid electricity price will be determined through market transactions [14]. - **Education**: The state - wide policy of exempting preschool education fees for all children in the senior class of kindergartens is expected to benefit about 12 million people this autumn [14]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The content only lists the categories of stock index futures data, stock index options data, and treasury bond futures data, but no specific data is provided [15][19][31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, although it remains in a state of inventory accumulation, the absolute inventory level is not high. With the current low processing fees for spot goods persisting for some time, and considering the limited inventory pressure of filament and the continuous inventory reduction of bottle - grade chips at low operation rates, the polyester operation rate is expected to gradually stabilize and has upward potential. It is advisable to look for opportunities to expand processing fees by buying at low prices [2]. - For MEG, the short - term inventory accumulation pressure is not significant, and the port inventory is expected to remain at a low level. The situation is favorable and the profit margin is decent. However, in the far - term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation due to the restart of overseas plants and the further increase of coal - based operation rates. The valuation is greatly affected by the subsequent evolution of the cost side, and it should be regarded as a wide - range fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of satellite plants [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, as the finished - product inventory of the polyester yarn end is reduced, the downstream operation rate may increase. Although the supply of staple fiber itself may also increase, considering that the processing fees on the futures market are still in a relatively low range, opportunities to expand processing fees by buying at low prices can be considered [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable at a relatively low level but does not show seasonal reduction. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber has rebounded due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From August 1 to August 7, crude oil prices dropped from $69.7 to $66.4, PTA internal - market spot prices decreased from 4750 to 4690, and PTA processing fees decreased from 121 to 101. The PXN spread weakened significantly, and the disproportionation and isomerization benefits declined [2]. - **Device Changes**: Taihua's 1.5 - million - ton plant was under maintenance, and its 1.2 - million - ton plant restarted; Ineos' 2.35 - million - ton plant reduced production by 20%; Jiaxing Petrochemical's 2.2 - million - ton plant was under maintenance [2]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From August 1 to August 7, the MEG external - market price decreased from 523 to 525, and the MEG coal - based profit decreased from 506 to 512. The MEG internal - market cash flow (ethylene) decreased from - 568 to - 554 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Inner Mongolia Tongliao's 300,000 - ton plant restarted, and Shanxi Wonen's 300,000 - ton plant was under maintenance [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From August 1 to August 7, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 6600 to 6550, and the short - fiber profit increased from 21 to 21 (with fluctuations in between). The cotton - polyester staple fiber spread increased from 8185 to 8340 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Xianglu's small - line plant was under maintenance, and the operation rate decreased slightly to 90.3% [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Grade Rubber - **Price Changes**: From August 1 to August 7, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard spot increased from 1720 to 1760, and the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased from 13910 to 14150. The RU main - contract price increased from 14310 to 15525 [2]. - **Spread Changes**: The spread between the mixed rubber and the RU main - contract decreased from - 260 to - 1215, and the spread between the US - dollar - denominated Thai standard and the NR main - contract increased from 197 to 289 [2]. Styrene - **Price and Margin Changes**: From August 1 to August 7, the price of pure benzene (East China) increased from 6070 to 6135, and the domestic styrene profit remained at - 198 (with fluctuations in between). The EPS domestic profit decreased from 320 to 200 [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - This week, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst high - sulfur fuel oil declined, the near - month spread was weak and at a historical low, and the EW spread rebounded on Friday. The 9 - 10 spread rebounded slightly to $3.75/ton, the basis fluctuated at a low level, and the FU01 internal - external spread was 0. The 0.5 cracking spread of Singapore fuel oil fluctuated downward, the 9 - 10 spread rebounded slightly to $3.25/ton, the LU11 internal - external spread fluctuated around $10, and the 09 internal - external spread continued to weaken. Singapore's on - land and floating storage inventories increased this week, pressuring the near - month spread. Saudi Arabia's shipments were at a historical high, with high net exports, while UAE's shipments decreased significantly month - on - month. Egypt's net imports decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a seasonal high. The east - west divergence of high - sulfur fuel oil continued, and the current price difference triggered logistics changes. In the heavy - quality pattern, the 380cst cracking spread was the weakest, and the heavy - quality crude oil premium was the strongest, with a predicted two - way regression in the future. This week, LU weakened as expected, the external MF0.5 followed gasoline and diesel to weaken slightly, the basis fluctuated, and the LU internal - external spread weakened. The Singapore hi - 5 spread declined slightly, with no clear direction recently [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Rotterdam Fuel Oil - From August 1st to 7th, 2025, the prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased from 414.34 to 404.69, a change of - 6.41; Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO swap M1 decreased from 469.52 to 455.81, a change of - 9.08; Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased from - 3.46 to - 2.15, a change of 0.63; Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased from 652.93 to 644.50, a change of - 10.11; Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased from - 183.41 to - 188.69, a change of 1.03; LGO - Brent M1 decreased from 20.50 to 22.56, a change of - 0.85; Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased from 55.18 to 51.12, a change of - 2.67 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil - For Singapore fuel oil swaps, from August 1st to 7th, 2025, Singapore 380cst M1 decreased from 420.12 to 406.75, a change of - 6.45; Singapore 180cst M1 decreased from 431.52 to 418.46, a change of - 4.74; Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased from 501.95 to 484.37, a change of - 10.08; Singapore Gasoil M1 decreased from 89.91 to 85.03, a change of - 0.80; Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased from - 4.72 to - 1.82, a change of 0.91; Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased from - 163.38 to - 144.85, a change of - 4.16 [1][6] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot - From August 1st to 7th, 2025, FOB 380cst decreased from 412.35 to 402.93, a change of - 3.90; FOB VLSFO decreased from 504.71 to 488.15, a change of - 6.96; 380 - basis decreased from - 5.95 to - 5.35, a change of - 0.30; high - sulfur internal - external spread increased from 0.0 to 2.6, a change of 1.3; low - sulfur internal - external spread increased from 9.4 to 9.9, a change of 1.4 [2] Domestic FU - From August 1st to 7th, 2025, FU 01 decreased from 2946 to 2838, a change of - 21; FU 05 decreased from 2906 to 2799, a change of - 19; FU 09 decreased from 2916 to 2826, a change of - 9; FU 01 - 05 decreased from 40 to 39, a change of - 2; FU 05 - 09 decreased from - 10 to - 27, a change of - 10; FU 09 - 01 increased from - 30 to - 12, a change of 12 [2] Domestic LU - From August 1st to 7th, 2025, LU 01 decreased from 3607 to 3463, a change of - 33; LU 05 decreased from 3553 to 3416, a change of - 21; LU 09 decreased from 3625 to 3510, a change of - 35; LU 01 - 05 decreased from 54 to 47, a change of - 12; LU 05 - 09 increased from - 72 to - 94, a change of 14; LU 09 - 01 decreased from 18 to 47, a change of - 2 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report No explicit core view is presented in the given content. The report mainly provides price and related data of various futures and spot commodities. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF509)**: The spot price is 5878, the futures price is 5834, the basis is 44, and the basis rate is 0.75%. The historical quantile is 63.40% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM509)**: The spot price is 6090, the futures price is 6064, the basis is 26, and the basis rate is 0.43% [1]. - **Rebar (RB2510)**: The spot price is 3360, the futures price is 3231, the basis is 129, and the basis rate is 3.99%. The historical quantile is 58.60% [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2510)**: The spot price is 3460, the futures price is 3440, the basis is 20, and the basis rate is 0.58%. The historical quantile is 25.20% [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2509)**: The spot price is 793, the futures price has a 5.84% decrease in the converted price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder. The historical quantile is 26.50% [1]. - **Coke (J2509)**: The spot price is 1668, the futures price is 1570, the basis is 97, and the basis rate is 6.19%. The historical quantile is 13.09% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: The spot price is 1230, the futures price is 1134, the basis is 96, and the basis rate is 8.44%. The historical quantile is 14.40% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2509)**: The spot price is 78500, the futures price is 78460, the basis is 40, and the basis rate is 0.05%. The historical quantile is 47.29% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2509)**: The spot price is 20750, the futures price is 20690, the basis is 60, and the basis rate is 0.29%. The historical quantile is 33.95% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2509)**: The spot price is 3251, the futures price is 3211, the basis is 40, and the basis rate is 1.23%. The historical quantile is 42.29% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2509)**: The spot price is 22580, the futures price is 22440, the basis is 140, and the basis rate is 0.62%. The historical quantile is 19.16% [1]. - **Tin (SN2509)**: The spot price is 267940, the futures price is 267200, the basis is 740, and the basis rate is 0.28%. The historical quantile is 25.00% [1]. - **Nickel (NI2509)**: The spot price is 121850, the futures price is 121350, the basis is 500, and the basis rate is 0.41%. The historical quantile is 31.04% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2509)**: The spot price is 13220, the futures price is 13000, the basis is 220, and the basis rate is 1.69%. The historical quantile is 49.57% [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2511)**: The spot price is 72300, the futures price is 71100, the basis is 1200, and the basis rate is 1.66%. The historical quantile is 31.71% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SI2511)**: The spot price is 9250, the futures price is 8655, the basis and basis rate are not clearly presented. The historical quantile is 40.64% [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2510)**: The spot price is 785.0, the futures price is 782.0, the basis is 3.0, and the basis rate is 0.38%. The historical quantile is 21.00% [1]. - **Silver (AG2510)**: The spot price is 9258.0, the futures price is 9224.0, the basis is 34.0, and the basis rate is 0.37%. The historical quantile is 20.20% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2509)**: The spot price is 3031.0, the futures price is 2920, the basis is 111.0, and the basis rate is 3.66%. The historical quantile is 16.80% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: The spot price is 8500, the futures price is 8378.0, the basis is 122.0, and the basis rate is 1.46%. The historical quantile is 12.70% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2509)**: The spot price is 8960, the futures price is 8950.0, the basis is 10.0, and the basis rate is 0.11%. The historical quantile is 18.50% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM509)**: The spot price is 2739.0, the futures price is 2590, the basis is 149.0, and the basis rate is 5.44%. The historical quantile is 7.00% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (OI509)**: The spot price is 9580, the futures price is 9496.0, the basis is 84.0, and the basis rate is 0.88%. The historical quantile is 37.00% [1]. - **Corn (C2509)**: The spot price is 2300, the futures price is 2267.0, the basis is 33.0, and the basis rate is 1.46%. The historical quantile is 63.10% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2509)**: The spot price is 2750, the futures price is 2660.0, the basis is 90.0, and the basis rate is 3.38%. The historical quantile is 41.70% [1]. - **Live Hogs (LH2501)**: The spot price is 13950, the futures price is 14100.0, the basis is - 150.0, and the basis rate is 1.06%. The historical quantile is 40.10% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2509)**: The spot price is 3391.0, the futures price is 2870, the basis is 521.0, and the basis rate is 15.36%. The historical quantile is 6.40% [1]. - **Cotton (CF509)**: The spot price is 15089, the futures price is 13670.0, the basis is 1419.0, and the basis rate is 9.24%. The historical quantile is 10.38% [1]. - **Sugar (SR601)**: The spot price is 6030, the futures price is 5585.0, the basis is 445.0, and the basis rate is 7.97%. The historical quantile is 67.70% [1]. - **Apples (AP510)**: The spot price is 8280, the futures price is 7940.0, the basis is 340.0, and the basis rate is 4.28%. The historical quantile is 36.20% [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: The spot price is 8300, the futures price is 11115.0, the basis is - 2815.0, and the basis rate is 25.33%. The historical quantile is 4.50% [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX509)**: The spot price is 6907.5, the futures price is 6756.0, the basis is 151.5, and the basis rate is 2.24%. The historical quantile is 66.10% [1]. - **PTA (TA509)**: The spot price is 4688.0, the futures price is 4675.0, the basis is 13.0, and the basis rate is 0.28%. The historical quantile is 47.00% [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2509)**: The spot price is 4465.0, the futures price is 4396.0, the basis is 69.0, and the basis rate is 1.57%. The historical quantile is 84.50% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF510)**: The spot price is 6490.0, the futures price is 6392.0, the basis is 98.0, and the basis rate is 1.53%. The historical quantile is 68.50% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2509)**: The spot price is 7345.0, the futures price is 7296.0, the basis is 49.0, and the basis rate is 0.67%. The historical quantile is 36.90% [1]. - **Methanol (MA509)**: The spot price is 2388.0, the futures price is 2382.5, the basis is 5.5, and the basis rate is 0.23%. The historical quantile is 32.70% [1]. - **Urea (UR509)**: The spot price is 1780.0, the futures price is 1737.0, the basis is 43.0, and the basis rate is 2.48%. The historical quantile is 24.60% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2509)**: The spot price is 7300.0, the futures price is 7297.0, the basis is 3.0, and the basis rate is 0.04%. The historical quantile is 21.30% [1]. - **PP (PP2509)**: The spot price is 7120.0, the futures price is 7075.0, the basis is 45.0, and the basis rate is 0.64%. The historical quantile is 35.00% [1]. - **PVC (V2509)**: The spot price is 5046.0, the futures price is 4910.0, the basis is 136.0, and the basis rate is 2.70%. The historical quantile is 41.60% [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH509)**: The spot price is 2500.0, the futures price is 2413.0, the basis is 87.0, and the basis rate is 3.61%. The historical quantile is 64.80% [1]. - **LPG (PG2509)**: The spot price is 4348.0, the futures price is 3823.0, the basis is 525.0, and the basis rate is 13.73%. The historical quantile is 70.00% [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2510)**: The spot price is 3760.0, the futures price is 3528.0, the basis is 232.0, and the basis rate is 6.58%. The historical quantile is 84.60% [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2509)**: The spot price is 11535.0, the futures price is 11500.0, the basis is 35.0, and the basis rate is 0.30%. The historical quantile is not clearly presented [1]. - **Glass (FG509)**: The spot price is 1104.0, the futures price is 1076.0, the basis is 28.0, and the basis rate is 2.54%. The historical quantile is 72.05% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: The spot price is 1357.0, the futures price is 1257.0, the basis is 100.0, and the basis rate is 7.96%. The historical quantile is 4.41% [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: The spot price is 15525.0, the futures price is 14400.0, the basis is 1125.0, and the basis rate is not clearly presented. The historical quantile is 20.41% [1]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: - **IF2509.CFF**: The spot price is 4114.7, the futures price is 4092.6, the basis is 22.1, and the basis rate is 0.54%. The historical quantile is 20.10% [1]. - **IH2509.CFE**: The spot price is 2798.3, the futures price is 2797.8, the basis is 0.5, and the basis rate is 0.02%. The historical quantile is 55.20% [1]. - **IC2509.CFE**: The spot price is 6337.5, the futures price is 6226.4, the basis is 111.1, and the basis rate is 1.79%. The historical quantile is 1.70% [1]. - **IM2509.CFE**: The spot price is 6862.1, the futures price is 6750.0, the basis is 112.1, and the basis rate is 1.66%. The historical quantile is 11.50% [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **2 - Year Treasury Bond (TS2509)**: The spot price is 102.37, the futures price is 100.30, the basis is 0.01, and the basis rate is 0.01%. The historical quantile is 30.40% [1]. - **5 - Year Treasury Bond (TF2509)**: The spot price is 105.82, the futures price is 101.01, the basis is 0.05, and the basis rate is 0.04%. The historical quantile is 33.50% [1]. - **10 - Year Treasury Bond (T2509)**: The spot price is 108.61, the futures price is not clearly presented, the basis is 0.07, and the basis rate is 0.06%. The historical quantile is 23.80% [1]. - **30 - Year Treasury Bond (TL2509)**: The spot price is 134.87, the futures price is 119.34, the basis is 0.27, and the basis rate is 0.22%. The historical quantile is 35.40% [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The black commodity futures market is generally bullish today, with coking coal leading the gains, while the terminal demand is weak due to weather conditions. Steel mills have insufficient motivation to cut production actively, and the demand support still exists. The iron ore market is affected by factors such as environmental protection restrictions and inventory changes, and there is an obvious seesaw effect between iron ore and coking coal [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The black commodity futures are generally bullish today. The rebar closed at 3,231 yuan/ton, up 0.03%; the hot-rolled coil closed at 3,440 yuan/ton, down 0.35%; the iron ore closed at 793 yuan/ton; the coking coal and coke both rose, with coking coal leading the gains by over 2% [1] Market Analysis - In terms of the industrial chain, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 234,700 tons to 1.37536 million tons this week, reaching a more than two-month high; the total output increased by 17,900 tons to 869,210 tons, and the apparent demand decreased month-on-month. Specifically, the social inventory of the five major varieties all increased to varying degrees. The inventory of rebar at steel mills increased by 3.73% month-on-month, and its total inventory increased by 1.9% to 556,680 tons, while the output increase reached 4.79%, and the apparent demand increased by 3.63% month-on-month; the output of hot-rolled coils decreased by 2.45%, the total inventory increased by 2.49% month-on-month, and the apparent demand decreased by 137,900 tons or 4.31% to 306,210 tons, reaching a nearly six-month low [1] - Steel mills currently have insufficient motivation to cut production actively, and the blast furnace hot metal has only decreased slightly, with demand support still existing. Last week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills continued to increase to 65.37%, reaching a more than nine-month high. The blast furnace operating rate remained flat at 83.46% for the third consecutive week, the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate decreased to 90.24%, and the daily average hot metal output continued to decline by 15,200 tons to 240,710 tons, but the year-on-year increase still reached 1.73%. Environmental protection restrictions will be implemented in the northern region for at least two weeks during the September 3 parade, which may suppress the demand for iron ore. Future attention should be paid to the progress of policy restrictions [1] - The global iron ore shipments decreased again. From July 28 to August 3, the total global iron ore shipments decreased by 1.391 million tons to 30.618 million tons week-on-week, but there is an expectation of a seasonal rebound in August. In addition, benefiting from the arrival of the previous shipment increments at ports, the total iron ore arrivals at 47 ports in China increased by 3.027 million tons to 26.224 million tons week-on-week, an increase of 13%. As of last Monday, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 143.1097 million tons, an increase of 292,400 tons compared with the previous Monday, and there is no obvious pressure to accumulate inventory [1] Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply-demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the changes in the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar [1] - Hot-rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high-level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply-demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength relationship between coking coal and coke [1] Summary - Overseas trade uncertainties still exist, and the domestic anti-involution sentiment has cooled down. Currently, iron ore generally follows coking coal, and the supply-side disturbances of coking coal still exist. The strengthening of coking coal suppresses the price of iron ore. The recent significant weakening of steel mill profits has made the seesaw effect between iron ore and coking coal more prominent [1]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The port accelerated inventory accumulation this week. Overseas methanol production remained at a high level, increasing the pressure of arrivals in August. The Xingxing MTO device in the port area started a one - month maintenance at the end of July. In the inland area, there will still be some maintenance in the northwest in August, and the production will not fully recover until late August. The traditional downstream demand showed certain resilience, and the inventory of inland methanol factories decreased further. Overall, the inland market was stronger than the port market [3] Group 2: Market Data Inland Market - Q5500 Ordos thermal coal was 470 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia was 695 yuan/ton (+25). The inland methanol prices varied by region: Inner Mongolia North Line was 2110 yuan/ton (+25), Inner Mongolia South Line was 2100 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong Linyi was 2383 yuan/ton (+10), Henan was 2250 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Hebei was 2275 yuan/ton (+25). The inland factory inventory was 293,688 tons (-30,832), and the northwest factory inventory was 185,500 tons (-30,500). The inland factory's pending orders were 240,800 tons (+10,075), and the northwest factory's pending orders were 122,800 tons (+10,800) [1] Port Market - The methanol price in Taicang was 2388 yuan/ton (+15), the basis was - 8 yuan/ton (+16), CFR China was 268 US dollars/ton (+1), and the import price difference in East China was 13 yuan/ton (-3). The port inventory increased, with the total port inventory at 925,480 tons (+117,080), Jiangsu port inventory at 498,000 tons (+79,000), Zhejiang port inventory at 144,000 tons (-9000), and Guangdong port inventory at 170,000 tons (+15,000). The downstream MTO operating rate was 85.27% (+0.32%) [2] Regional Price Differences - There were various regional price differences, such as the Lubei - Northwest - 280 price difference of - 45 yuan/ton (-25), the Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 price difference of - 272 yuan/ton (-10), etc [2] Group 3: Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Do reverse arbitrage when the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread is high - Cross - variety: Shrink the PP2601 - 3MA2601 spread when it is high [4] Group 4: Report Directory Summary Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report included multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spread, such as the methanol Taicang basis and the main contract, and the spreads between different methanol futures contracts [7][22][24] Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures related to production profit (e.g., Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit), MTO profit (e.g., East China MTO profit), and import profit (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China import price difference) were presented [26][34] Methanol Production and Inventory - Figures showed methanol port inventory, MTO/P operating rate, inland factory inventory, and China's methanol operating rate [36][38] Regional Price Differences - Figures presented various regional price differences, such as Lubei - Northwest, East China - Inner Mongolia, etc [44][48][51] Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures showed the production profits of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE, and Henan dimethyl ether [52][60]