据追风交易台消息，摩根大通在其最新研报中表示，"反内卷"利好银行业，尤其是股份制银行，可能推动净息差反弹并提升收益，但影响将较2016年供给 侧改革更温和。 今年以来，中央层面对"反内卷"密集发声。在政策支持及各行各业快速响应下，"反内卷"热度持续升温。 据新华社报道，7月1日召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议提出，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出，释放 国家层面"反内卷"新信号。 报告预计，在"反内卷"推动下，2026年银行业盈利有望实现8%的上行潜力，主要驱动因素为净息差回升，其中股份制银行的净盈利影响可达14%。 历史经验显示，净息差存在显著改善空间 报告表示，2016-2018年的供给侧改革成功减少了某些行业的过剩产能，推动PPI从2015年-5.2%反弹至2017年+6.3%，并与名义GDP增长正相关。 期间，MSCI中国银行指数从2016年2月至2018年1月上涨97%，银行收入随名义GDP恢复，净息差在无政策利率上调情况下反弹18个基点，不良贷款生成 率从2015年峰值开始下降。 报告预计，本轮"反内卷"的积极影响可能小于前次改革，但可能带来净息差和收入上行， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being volatile [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile; Overall reference view: strongly running [1][5] - **Core Logic**: A new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures. The supply side is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and large month - on - month output pressure. Downstream demand is weak, with slowing tire production and sales growth and a terminal demand off - season. Benefiting from better - than - expected domestic new car production and sales data in June, the 2509 contract of Shanghai rubber futures showed a strongly volatile trend in the overnight session on Monday, with the price slightly rising 0.87% to 14,430 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Tuesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile; Overall reference view: strongly running [1][7] - **Core Logic**: A new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures. The operating loads of some private butadiene rubber plants in East and South China have increased slightly, driving up production and capacity utilization. Downstream demand is weak, with slowing tire production and sales growth and a terminal demand off - season. Benefiting from better - than - expected domestic new car production and sales data in June, the 2509 contract of synthetic rubber futures showed a strongly volatile trend in the overnight session on Monday, with the price slightly rising 0.22% to 11,570 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a strongly volatile trend on Tuesday [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - bullish respectively [1][5]. - Due to factors such as increased domestic and overseas supply and weakening downstream demand, the methanol supply - demand structure is becoming looser. However, after the release of negative sentiment from the previous sharp correction and the potential new round of supply - side reform, the domestic methanol futures may maintain an oscillatory - bullish trend. The night - session of domestic methanol futures on Monday slightly rose 0.46% to 2398 yuan/ton, and the 2509 contract on Tuesday is expected to maintain an oscillatory - bullish trend [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price Change Calculation Rules - For varieties with night - trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price of the current day to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% a weak oscillation; a rise of 0 - 1% is a strong oscillation, and a rise greater than 1% is an increase [3]. - Oscillatory - bullish/weak only applies to the intraday view, not for short - term and medium - term views [4]. 3.2 Methanol Market Analysis - The continuous release of domestic methanol production capacity and the arrival of overseas shipments increase the supply pressure. Meanwhile, downstream demand enters the off - season, leading to a looser supply - demand structure [5]. - After the previous sharp correction, negative sentiment has been released. The domestic high - level meeting's tone on governance of low - price disorderly competition and the exit of backward production capacity may bring a new round of supply - side reform, which boosts domestic commodity futures [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of industrial silicon is expected to continue a relatively strong consolidation in the short - term, but the volatility may increase. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations. In the long - term, the selling pressure on the upper side after the rebound of the futures market may stimulate the resumption of production in the southwest region, and there is still upward pressure [1]. - The polysilicon price may continue a relatively strong trend in the short - term, driven by bullish sentiment and the rise of industrial silicon, but the upward space may be limited. It is advisable to consider taking profits on previous long positions [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 1.16% to 8,750 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) increased by 1.09% to 9,300 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 3.33% to 8,695 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Northern large - scale factories have production reduction arrangements with no resumption news. The southwest production area is about to enter the wet season, with lower electricity costs and a steady increase in enterprise operation, but the resumption speed is slow. After offsetting the increase and decrease on the supply side, there may be a reduction [1]. - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction trend, with some silicon material factories planning to resume production in July, bringing some demand increase. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to reduce production to support prices, but the demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. The operation of domestic monomer enterprises is mixed, with overall operation declining, further weakening the demand for industrial silicon. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream has insufficient willingness to stockpile at low prices [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: The price of N - type dense material decreased by 1.12% to 44 yuan/kg, the price of N - type re - feeding material decreased by 1.09% to 45.5 yuan/kg, the price of N - type mixed material remained flat at 43.5 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon remained flat at 43.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 0.04% to 41,330 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction trend, and some may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the output is expected to increase slightly, generally remaining within 100,000 tons [1]. - **Demand Side**: The photovoltaic market is weak overall, with the inventory of silicon wafers and silicon materials increasing. Recently, due to the expected increase in polysilicon prices, the price of downstream silicon wafers has followed the increase, and the trading atmosphere has improved. However, the terminal market is still weak due to the large over - consumption of demand in the first half of the year [1]. Other Information - After the domestic photovoltaic silicon wafer enterprises generally raised their quotations on the afternoon of July 9, the domestic silicon wafer market has carried out transactions at the new prices over the weekend, and battery factories have started to purchase in large quantities. At the same time, the 210 and 210R models of battery cells have gradually started transactions at 0.26 yuan/w [1]. - A 1,200 - ton/day photovoltaic glass kiln in Anhui was cold - repaired today. As of now, the cold - repaired kiln capacity in July in China is 3,600 tons/day, and there is still a planned cold - repaired capacity of 1,400 tons/day in the follow - up of July [1].

Report Title - The report is titled "Black Metal Weekly - Steel Products" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - Since the Politburo meeting in July last year, the policy level has continuously emphasized "anti-involution." The recent meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission has elevated anti-involution to the national strategic level, raising market expectations for a new round of supply-side reforms [8]. - From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the off-season demand characteristics of finished products are not obvious recently. Varieties such as rebar and hot-rolled coils have not effectively accumulated inventory during the off-season. Coupled with the current policy window period, steel prices are supported to some extent. The rebound pressure of rebar should be noted at the valley electricity cost [8]. Summary by Directory Conclusion and Balance Sheet - Last week, domestic steel spot prices fluctuated and rebounded. The price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3,190 yuan (+50), and that in Tangshan was 3,150 yuan (+40). For hot-rolled coils, the price in Shanghai was 3,300 yuan (+50), and that in Tianjin was 3,200 yuan (+50) [6]. - As of July 10, the overall output of five major steel products decreased by 124,400 tons. The factory inventory of the five major products increased by 1,770 tons month-on-month, and the social inventory decreased by 2,120 tons. The apparent demand was 873,070 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 121,900 tons [7]. - As of July 11, on the long-process spot side, the cash含税 cost of rebar in East China's long process was 2,932.5 yuan, and the point-to-point profit was about 257.5 yuan. The cash含税 profit of hot-rolled coils in the long process was about 267.5 yuan. On the electric furnace side, the flat-electric furnace cost in East China (Fubao caliber) was about 3,304 yuan, and the valley-electric cost was about 3,173 yuan. The flat-electric profit of rebar in East China was about -204 yuan, and the valley-electric profit was about -73 yuan [7]. - As of July 10, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,080 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 20 yuan. Data showed that the capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnace enterprises was 29.6%, a month-on-month increase of 0.7 percentage points; the daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 505,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1,700 tons; among them, the daily consumption of 132 long-process steel mills was 255,000 tons/day, a month-on-month decrease of 6,100 tons; the daily consumption of short-process was 14,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 320 tons. In terms of supply, the average daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 461,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15,300 tons, a decrease of 3.2%. In terms of inventory, the total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 4.621 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 92,700 tons, a decrease of 2%. Overall, the iron-scrap price difference rebounded from a low level this period. After the cost of the long process increased, the price of scrap steel also began to rise. It is expected that the cost of the electric furnace will further increase [7]. Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Steel Production and Inventory Data**: The report provides detailed production and inventory data of five major steel products from May 2, 2025, to July 11, 2025, including rebar, hot-rolled coils, medium and heavy plates, wire rods, and cold-rolled coils [10]. - **Crude Steel Production**: In 2024, the crude steel production was 1.00509 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons compared with 2023, a decrease of 1.7%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative crude steel production was 432 million tons, a decrease of 1.7% compared with the same period in 2024 [16]. - **Monetary Data**: In May 2025, the newly added social financing was 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 227.1 billion yuan compared with the same period last year and an increase of 113 billion yuan compared with April, higher than the Wind consensus expectation of 2.05 trillion yuan. The year-on-year growth rate of the social financing stock in May was 8.7%, the same as that in April, slightly lower than the Wind consensus expectation of 8.8%. The newly added RMB loans in the social financing caliber in May were 59.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.37 billion yuan compared with the same period last year and an increase of 50.76 billion yuan compared with April [18]. - **PMI Data**: The PMI in June 2025 was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared with May [21]. - **Investment Data**: From January to May 2025, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 1.91947 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. Among them, private fixed asset investment was flat year-on-year [26]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to May 2025, the national new housing construction area was 231.84 million square meters, a decrease of 22.8%; the housing sales area was 70.53 million square meters, a decrease of 4.6%; the housing completion area was 183.85 million square meters, a decrease of 17.3% [29]. - **Crude Steel Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides a detailed supply and demand balance sheet of crude steel from 2019 to 2025E, including crude steel production, pig iron production, scrap steel production, crude steel imports, crude steel exports, and inventory [32]. Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - This week, the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar continued to shrink [45]. Supply - **Long-Process Supply**: As of July 11, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 89.9%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points compared with July 4, a decrease of 0.43%. The daily average pig iron output was 239,800 tons, a decrease of 1,040 tons compared with July 4, a decrease of 0.43% [48]. - **Short-Process Supply**: As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric furnace plants was 29.6% (+0.7). As of July 11, the iron-scrap price difference was -148.64 yuan (+48.7) [51]. - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival of scrap steel at 255 steel mills decreased month-on-month. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises decreased month-on-month [7]. - **Rebar Production**: This week, the original sample output of rebar was 216,660 tons (-44,200), of which the long-process output was 189,740 tons (-55,000), and the short-process output was 26,920 tons (+10,800) [64]. Demand - **Building Materials Transactions**: The report provides transaction data of building materials in different regions, including the northern, eastern, and southern regions [67][69][71]. - **Cement Mill Operating Rate**: The average operating load of national cement mills was 40.79%, an increase of 0.94 percentage points compared with last week, and the increase rate expanded by 0.14 percentage points [75]. - **Real Estate Sales**: The report provides high-frequency sales data of 30 cities in the real estate market [77]. - **Rebar Inventory**: This period, the original sample rebar factory inventory was 180,880 tons (+410), the social inventory was 359,490 tons (-5,250), and the total inventory was 540,370 tons (-4,840) [80]. - **Hot-Rolled Coil Supply and Demand**: This week, the output of hot-rolled coils was 323,140 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 50,000 tons. The apparent demand was 322,510 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18,600 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory decreased by 510 tons, and the social inventory increased by 1,140 tons, with the overall inventory increasing by 630 tons [83]. - **Plate Demand**: As of July 11, the cold-hot price difference in the Shanghai area was 480 yuan/ton (+20) [90]. - **Export Situation**: As of July 11, the FOB export price of China was 450 US dollars (-), and the export profit was -18.6 US dollars (-5.2). The outbound volume from 32 major domestic ports was 3.1363 million tons (+691,200) [96].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Macro - "anti - involution" brings strong bullish sentiment, but the zinc market sees increases in both ore and ingot supply. The demand side is in the off - season, and the zinc market's inventory accumulation trend is gradually emerging. The fundamentals are weak, and the rebound of zinc prices is limited. It is expected to maintain a weak consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton, and the view of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. Continued attention should be paid to macro and downstream consumption conditions [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - The closing price of SMM1 zinc ingot average price increased by 0.09% to 22,360 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract decreased by 0.13% to 22,380 yuan/ton; the LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) increased by 0.09% to 2,738 US dollars/ton [11]. 2. Raw Material End 2.1 Zinc Concentrate - As of July 11, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 80,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period; the total inventory of 7 ports was 333,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period [20]. - As of July 10, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 4,064 yuan/metal ton. In May, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 491,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 84.26%; from January to May, the cumulative import volume was 2.204 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 52.46% [26]. - As of July 11, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc concentrate processing fee index increased to 66.48 US dollars/dry ton [3]. 2.2 Refined Zinc - The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to improve. As of July 10, the production profit was - 234 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic refined zinc output was 590,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons, and the output in July is expected to remain high [37]. - The import profit window was closed. As of July 11, the import profit of refined zinc was - 1,523.72 yuan/ton. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 155,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 31,200 tons [40]. 3. Downstream Demand 3.1 Galvanizing - The galvanizing enterprise's operating rate increased by 1.81 percentage points to 58.29%. The raw material inventory and finished product inventory of galvanizing enterprises increased [46][49]. 3.2 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - The price of zinc alloy fluctuated slightly. The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy increased by 0.09% to 23,055 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy increased by 0.08% to 23,605 yuan/ton [53]. - The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased by 4.8 percentage points to 53.94%. The raw material inventory and finished product inventory increased [56][59][60]. 3.3 Zinc Oxide - The price of zinc oxide remained stable. The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [67]. - The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 0.30 percentage points to 55.84%. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory fluctuated slightly [70][73]. 4. Inventory - As of July 14, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 86,100 tons, an increase in inventory. As of July 10, the SMM zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 6,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period [78]. - As of July 11, the SHFE inventory was 50,000 tons, an increase in inventory, and the LME inventory was 105,250 tons, a continuous decrease in inventory [81].

以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ，作者田亚雄 刘昊 CFC商品策略研究 . 好的研报应该提供打破经验，观念，陈规或惯例的视角，提供自我逻辑审查的意识自觉。阅读体验应该是一次历险，也许是一次漂流，它并 不把你带到任何一个安全的港湾去，但更像是提供一种类似在悬崖边临渊回眸，另做选择的逻辑启发，或自我反讽的邀请。 文 | 田亚雄 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 新一轮供给侧变局中，尚未有时间表和实施的路线，但市场的氛围整体围绕产能变化预期、成本提升预期进行交易，且击鼓 传花在碳酸锂和工业硅上演之后，或正迈向情绪定价的高点。 反过度竞争在7月初提出之后，到目前为止，尚未公布明确的时间表或可直接实施的方案，这反映出实施的复杂性。参考过往 的行业低价竞争，未来的终局措施或以：建立成本锚定与违规惩戒机制、行政手段加速淘汰落后产能以及审慎补贴发放等方 式展开。 供给侧正成为商品当下定价的重中之重，从焦煤到光伏产业链。 后续成本锚定成为价格中枢的关键位置。 国产煤成本相对分化，山西国企精煤完全成本超1000元/吨（高人工成本+安全投 入），民企成本约700–900元/吨，当前现货价（山西 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The upward movement of the lithium carbonate futures market is due to domestic anti - involution measures, but the current market deviates significantly from the fundamentals, and the rebound height is limited under the loose supply - demand pattern [3]. - The urea market has seen a price drop on the futures side, and although export orders are being executed, the domestic supply - demand remains loose, and the subsequent quota issue may continue to affect the market, with limited room for a deep decline [4]. - The price of Shanghai copper has declined this week mainly due to the proposed 50% copper tariff by the US. The supply - side pressure has eased, and the market is under pressure. However, if the Fed's independence is compromised and the US dollar declines, it will support the market, and the downside space for copper is limited [9]. - The easing of Middle East geopolitical risks has alleviated concerns about crude oil supply disruptions. The market should pay attention to the subsequent development of the situation in the Middle East. The current market has factored in the accelerated production increase by OPEC +, and it is expected that crude oil prices will oscillate strongly in the near term [11]. - It is recommended to go long on the asphalt 09 - 12 spread on dips as it gradually enters the peak season [13]. - PP, plastic, PVC, and other products are expected to oscillate at low levels due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, trade policies, and seasonal impacts [14][16][17]. - The price of soybean oil is approaching the pressure level of 8000 yuan/ton, and the supply is abundant while the demand is under pressure. In the long - term, the demand in the bio - fuel industry may affect the price trend [19]. - The price of soybean meal is oscillating strongly, and the supply is increasing. The subsequent demand may increase with the rise in pig - breeding profits. In the long - term, factors such as US soybean planting area and Sino - US tariffs need to be observed [22]. - The short - term sentiment in the steel market has improved, but the steel demand is greatly affected by seasonal factors. It is expected that the upward momentum of steel prices will be limited, and the market will continue to oscillate [25]. - The hot - rolled coil market is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to production, inventory, PMI, and tariff policies [26]. - The short - term market for coking coal remains strong, mainly due to the phased reduction in supply and the expectation of capacity clearance [28]. Summary by Product Lithium Carbonate - The futures market rose nearly 4% today, with the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate at 64,650 yuan/ton and industrial - grade at 63,050 yuan/ton, both up 900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [3]. - The supply is abundant, with a weekly capacity utilization rate of 62% and an increase in June production to 74,000 tons. The inventory is accumulating, and the pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term [3]. - The downstream is mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. The consumption data of new - energy vehicles in June increased, with retail sales of 1.071 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month increase of 4% [3]. Urea - The futures market opened lower and weakened today. The spot price has risen slightly since the weekend, mainly due to the strong performance of last week's futures [4]. - The supply side has pressure, with the daily output fluctuating around 200,000 tons, and new production capacity will be gradually put into operation [4]. - The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the agricultural demand in the main delivery areas is decreasing. The inventory is decreasing, which boosts the market [4]. Shanghai Copper - The price of Shanghai copper has been affected by the Fed's potential interest - rate cut and the US tariff policy. The proposed 50% copper tariff by the US has led to a decline in prices [9]. - The supply - side pressure has eased, with the processing fees of copper smelters stabilizing, and the copper concentrate inventory increasing. The tight supply expectation has been alleviated [9]. - The downstream demand is weak, with a decline in the cable start - up rate in June and the air - conditioning industry entering the off - season [9]. Crude Oil - The easing of Middle East geopolitical risks has reduced concerns about supply disruptions, but the subsequent development of the situation still needs attention [11]. - The market has factored in the accelerated production increase by OPEC + in August (an increase of 548,000 barrels per day), and OPEC has lowered the global oil demand forecast for the next four years [11]. - The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the near term due to factors such as the seasonal peak season and potential US sanctions on Russian oil [11]. Asphalt - The supply side has seen an increase in the start - up rate, with a planned production of 2.542 million tons in July, a month - on - month increase of 6.0% and a year - on - year increase of 23.6% [12]. - The downstream start - up rate has mostly declined, affected by funds and weather. The inventory of refineries has increased slightly but remains at a low level in recent years [12]. - It is recommended to go long on the asphalt 09 - 12 spread on dips as it enters the peak season [13]. PP - The downstream start - up rate has declined, and the US tariff policy is unfavorable for exports. The upstream propane import is restricted [14]. - The supply side has new production capacity, and the start - up rate of enterprises has increased. The inventory pressure is still large, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. Plastic - The start - up rate has decreased, and the downstream start - up rate is at a low level. The US tariff policy affects exports, and the upstream ethane import is restricted [15]. - New production capacity has been put into operation, and the start - up rate has increased slightly. The demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is large, with a low - level oscillation expected [16]. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The start - up rate has decreased, and the downstream demand is weak. The export is restricted by policies [17]. - The inventory is high, and new production capacity is about to be put into operation. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [17]. Soybean Oil - The price of the main 09 contract has increased slightly, approaching the 8000 yuan/ton pressure level [18]. - The supply is abundant, with a good outlook for US soybean production and sufficient domestic supply in July [19]. - The demand is under pressure due to the price advantage of palm oil and the impact of high - temperature weather. In the long - term, the demand in the bio - fuel industry may affect the price [19]. Soybean Meal - The price of the main 09 contract has oscillated strongly, and the market sentiment has slightly improved [20]. - The supply is increasing, and the demand may increase with the rise in pig - breeding profits. The current downstream replenishment is weak [22]. - In the long - term, factors such as US soybean planting area and Sino - US tariffs need to be observed [22]. Rebar - The futures market has shown a pattern of "rising and then falling, closing slightly higher". The supply reduction expectation is strong, but the actual implementation is limited [23]. - The demand is in the off - season, with a decline in daily average trading volume, but the weekly apparent consumption remains above 2.2 million tons [23]. - The inventory is decreasing, and the cost support is strong in the short term. The market is expected to oscillate [25]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The futures market has shown a pattern of "rising and then being blocked, closing slightly higher". The supply pressure is increasing, and the weekly output is expected to exceed 3.25 million tons [26]. - The demand is weak, with the weekly apparent consumption remaining below 1.8 million tons. The inventory transfer from factories to social warehouses is slow [26]. - The cost provides support, and it is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [26]. Coking Coal - The price has increased today. The supply pressure has eased due to the reduction in Mongolian coal imports and the resumption of domestic mines [27]. - The market is affected by anti - involution measures, and the inventory has been transferred downward. The short - term market is strong [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the cement industry [6][27]. Core Insights - The cement industry is expected to see significant improvement in performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, driven by anti-involution measures and a focus on high-quality development [1][4]. - The historical success of supply-side reforms has led to a reduction in new cement production lines, alleviating supply-demand imbalances, but recent market demand declines have intensified competition [2][3]. - The regulatory framework for anti-involution policies is being strengthened, with measures to address overproduction expected to be a key focus in the second half of 2025 [3][4]. - Companies with integrated operations and global expansion strategies are positioned for long-term growth, with specific recommendations for Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China National Building Material [1][4][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The cement industry has experienced a significant drop in average prices, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.5% as of July 11, 2025, leading to a renewed call for anti-involution measures [2][3]. Performance Forecasts - Five cement companies have reported impressive performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, with some expecting net profit increases of over 100% year-on-year [4][8]. Policy Developments - Recent policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the inclusion of the cement industry in carbon emissions trading are expected to enhance the regulatory framework for managing overproduction [3][4]. Company Recommendations - The report highlights Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China National Building Material as key investment opportunities due to their competitive advantages in scale, cost, and energy efficiency [1][4][8].

Group 1: Precious Metals - Market performance: Last Friday, precious metal prices rose, and silver prices soared due to expectations of additional tariffs [1]. - Fundamental factors: China and the US foreign ministers met in Kuala Lumpur, agreeing to strengthen communication and dialogue. Trump announced a 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU starting August 1st. Fed Chairman Powell might consider resigning. Domestic gold ETFs had outflows, and inventories in various locations changed [1]. - Trading strategy: For gold, considering the unchanged de - dollarization logic, it is recommended to go long. For silver, short - term risk - avoidance is advised with long positions closed, but in the long - term, industrial silver use is turning downward [1]. Group 2: Base Metals Copper - Market performance: On Friday, copper prices oscillated weakly [2]. - Fundamental factors: Trump unexpectedly increased tariffs on most countries, leading to lower market risk appetite. After the proposed 50% tariff on copper on August 1st, London and domestic inventories increased. The long - term copper price has upward momentum due to the tight copper mine situation and global fiscal expansion expectations [2]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [2]. Aluminum - Market performance: On Friday, the closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2508 contract decreased by 0.02% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production with an increase in weekly operating capacity. Demand - side, it is the traditional consumption off - season, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased [2]. - Trading strategy: The domestic aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level, supporting the price. However, due to macro uncertainties and weak downstream demand, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Alumina - Market performance: On Friday, the closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 2.83% compared to the previous trading day [3]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, alumina plants' production was stable. Demand - side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading strategy: Some northern alumina plants are in the maintenance period, causing a short - term supply - demand mismatch. The market is in a game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended to operate within a range and partially close long positions [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: On Thursday, the main 09 contract opened higher and then oscillated. The price decreased by 55 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the position decreased by 13,427 lots [3]. - Fundamental factors: Last week, the market rebounded due to the "anti - involution" sentiment. Supply - side, Yunnan contributed a small increase in start - up. Demand - side, polysilicon start - up was stable, organic silicon production was stable, and the aluminum alloy downstream was in the off - season [3]. - Trading strategy: After the futures price rebound, different cost manufacturers will gradually hedge. There is an expectation of increased start - up, but short - term support exists. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: On Friday, the main LC2509 contract closed at 64,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% [3]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, the expected production in July increased by 3.92% month - on - month. Demand - side, the downstream production plan increased marginally, but inventory continued to reach new highs [3]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell the far - month LC2511 contract at high levels [3]. Polysilicon - Market performance: On Friday, the main 08 contract opened higher and then oscillated. The price decreased by 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the position decreased by 12,676 lots [3]. - Fundamental factors: Last week, the market rose significantly due to "anti - involution" expectations. Supply - side, production increased slightly, and there is a复产 expectation. Demand - side, the production plan of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased in July [3]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to the progress of leading enterprises in solving supply - demand imbalances and the actual procurement price in the silicon wafer market next week. Partially close long positions [3]. Tin - Market performance: On Friday, tin prices oscillated [3]. - Fundamental factors: Trump's additional tariffs slightly suppressed risk appetite. Supply - side, the tin mine situation remained tight, but the复产 expectation pressured the price. Demand - side, downstream procurement was on - demand, and global weekly inventory decreased [3]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a weak - oscillation - within - a - range approach [3]. Group 3: Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The main 2510 contract of rebar oscillated weakly, closing at 3,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamental factors: The supply and demand of building materials were both weak, but low production reduced inventory pressure. The supply and demand of steel were balanced. Market sentiment improved, and macro data will have a significant impact this week [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see and try the 10/1 reverse spread of rebar. The reference range for RB10 is 3,100 - 3,160 [4]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The main 2509 contract of iron ore oscillated strongly, closing at 764 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamental factors: The supply and demand of iron ore were neutral. Steel mill profits expanded marginally, and production will remain stable. Supply followed the seasonal pattern. Market sentiment improved, and macro data will be important this week [4]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see. Layout a long position in the 2605 coil - to - ore ratio. The reference range for I09 is 750 - 780 [4]. Coking Coal - Market performance: The main 2509 contract of coking coal oscillated strongly, closing at 921.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamental factors: Iron production decreased slightly, and steel mill profits expanded. The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the first round of price increases is being discussed. Supply - side inventory is differentiated. Market sentiment improved, and macro data will matter this week [4]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see. The reference range for JM09 is 890 - 930 [4]. Group 4: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans fell due to a slightly bearish USDA report [5]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, the near - term international supply is loose, and the long - term is expected to be loose. Demand - side, South America is dominant in the short - term, and there are uncertainties in US soybean production and tariff policies [5]. - Trading strategy: Short - term, US soybeans are in a range - bound oscillation. Domestic soybeans follow international cost. Pay attention to weather and tariff policies [5]. Corn - Market performance: The 2509 contract of corn continued to decline, and the spot price also fell [5][6]. - Fundamental factors: This year's supply - demand is tightening marginally. Substitute imports decreased, but wheat substitution and import grain auctions affect the price. The spot price is expected to be weak [6]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the low auction turnover rate of imported corn [6]. Sugar - Market performance: ICE raw sugar 10 contract had a weekly increase of 1.85%, and Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract had a weekly increase of 0.21% [6]. - Fundamental factors: The domestic commodity market sentiment was good, and domestic and international markets rebounded together. Import sugar arrivals are increasing, and the 09 contract is expected to be weak [6]. - Trading strategy: In the futures market, go short at high levels; in the options market, sell call options [6]. Cotton - Market performance: Last Friday, US cotton prices oscillated and fell. Zhengzhou cotton prices oscillated upward [6]. - Fundamental factors: International data adjustments had little impact. Market sentiment was bearish. Domestically, low commercial inventories were concerned, but downstream start - up rates decreased and product inventories increased [6]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see and adopt a range - bound trading strategy [6]. Palm Oil - Market performance: Recently, palm oil has been strong, and the trading center has shifted upward [6]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, production in the producing areas weakened marginally. Demand - side, exports decreased month - on - month, but there is support in annual demand [6]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, P is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to overweight in the sector, and the annual supply is expected to be tight. Pay attention to production and biodiesel policies [6]. Eggs - Market performance: The 2508 contract of eggs oscillated narrowly, and the spot price increased [6]. - Fundamental factors: Farmers are in losses, and old hen culling is expected to decrease. Supply is high, and demand is affected by price and weather. The price is expected to oscillate [6]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate due to sufficient supply and cost support [6]. Hogs - Market performance: The 2509 contract of hogs oscillated narrowly, and the spot price had a north - up and south - down pattern [6]. - Fundamental factors: Consumption is seasonally weak, slaughterhouses are reducing losses, and supply is increasing. The price is expected to decline in the medium - term [6]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate and adjust due to weak demand [6]. Apples - Market performance: The main contract had a weekly increase of 0.49%. Apple prices in Shandong were stable [6][7]. - Fundamental factors: The opening price of new - season early - maturing apples increased. There are differences in this year's production. Current consumption is weak, and the market has few contradictions [7]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see [7]. Group 5: Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market performance: On Friday, the main LLDPE contract oscillated slightly. The spot price in North China was 7,200 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed [7]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, new plants were put into operation, and domestic supply increased. Import is expected to decrease. Demand - side, it is the end of the off - season for agricultural film [7]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high levels [7]. PVC - Market performance: The v09 contract closed at 4,980, a decrease of 0.5% [7]. - Fundamental factors: Supply is expected to increase, and social inventory is accumulating. Wait for the implementation of production - cut policies [7]. - Trading strategy: Close short positions and wait and see as the rebound lacks momentum [7]. PTA - Market performance: PX CFR China price was 837 US dollars/ton, and PTA spot price was 4,710 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamental factors: PX supply is low, and PTA supply is increasing. Polyester load decreased, and the supply - demand is expected to be loose [7]. - Trading strategy: Go long on PX, look for short - term positive spread opportunities in PTA, and short - sell processing fees in the long - term [7]. Glass - Market performance: The fg09 contract closed at 1,086, an increase of 2% [7][8]. - Fundamental factors: Spot sales improved, supply is increasing, and inventory is decreasing. The downstream situation is not good, and the valuation is complex [7][8]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see and follow the implementation of production - cut policies [8]. PP - Market performance: On Friday, the main PP contract oscillated slightly. The spot price in East China was 7,100 yuan/ton, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [8]. - Fundamental factors: Supply is increasing, and demand is differentiated. The export situation of downstream products is worthy of attention [8]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will oscillate weakly. In the long - term, short - sell far - month contracts at high levels [8]. MEG - Market performance: The East China spot price of MEG was 4,384 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamental factors: Supply is at a high level, and inventory is at a low level. Polyester load decreased, and the supply - demand is balanced [8]. - Trading strategy: MEG is expected to be weak. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels [8]. Crude Oil - Market performance: Last week, oil prices oscillated strongly due to low inventory and stable demand [8]. - Fundamental factors: US gasoline demand was stable. OPEC+ and non - OPEC countries will increase production, and the market is expected to be oversupplied, especially in the fourth quarter [8]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to inventory accumulation and short - sell at high levels [8]. EB - Market performance: On Friday, the main EB contract oscillated slightly. The spot price in East China was 7,730 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed [8][9]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, pure benzene and styrene inventories have different trends. Demand - side, downstream profits are poor, and product inventory is high. Export demand is a key factor [8][9]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will oscillate. In the long - term, short - sell far - month contracts at high levels [9]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The sa09 contract closed at 1,214, a decrease of 0.9% [9]. - Fundamental factors: Supply increased as a plant resumed production, and inventory accumulated. Downstream demand from photovoltaic glass is weak [9]. - Trading strategy: Short - sell at high levels as the fundamentals are weak [9].