Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various asset classes including stocks, bonds, commodities, and agricultural products. It points out that the short - term macro upward drive has weakened, and the market is mainly focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies and economic growth. Different asset classes are expected to have different trends, with most showing short - term oscillations and some having long - term trends influenced by supply - demand fundamentals and policy factors [2][3]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - The US labor market is weak, with the number of Challenger job cuts in October reaching a 20 - year high. The global risk appetite has significantly cooled. In China, the manufacturing prosperity declined in October, and economic growth slowed down, but policy stimulus expectations have increased after the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee. The short - term macro upward drive has weakened, and the market should focus on domestic economic growth and policy implementation. For assets, stocks are expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish; bonds are expected to oscillate and rebound, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish; most commodity sectors are expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to be cautiously watchful [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as phosphoric chemical, aluminum, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rose significantly. Fundamentally, China's manufacturing prosperity declined in October, and economic growth slowed down, but policy stimulus expectations increased. The short - term macro upward drive has weakened, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Thursday night. The main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver increased. It was boosted by the weakening US dollar and rising safe - haven demand. The short - term trend is oscillatory, and the medium - to - long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. It is advisable to watch in the short term and buy on dips in the medium - to - long - term [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of domestic steel rebounded slightly on Thursday. The market's macro sentiment was repaired, but the fundamentals were still weak. The demand for steel has basically peaked this week, and the inventory decline has slowed down significantly. The supply contraction may further intensify. The short - term steel market is expected to be oscillatory and weak [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore strengthened slightly on Thursday. Although steel mills are still expected to cut production, the molten iron output increased slightly this week. The supply pressure is still large, and the short - term trend is expected to be range - bound [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Thursday, and the futures prices continued to rebound slightly. The demand for ferroalloys decreased as the output of five major steel products declined. The supply of silicon manganese was relatively stable, and the supply of silicon iron was also in a certain state. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to oscillate within a range [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash oscillated within a range on Thursday. The supply increased this week, and there are capacity expansion plans in the fourth quarter. The supply is in a loose pattern, and the pressure remains. It is advisable to take a bearish view in the medium - to - long - term [8]. - **Glass**: The main contract of glass oscillated on Thursday. Affected by news from Shahe, the price was supported. The supply was stable, the demand was weak year - on - year, and the inventory was relatively high. It is expected to be strong in the short term due to previous large declines and the impact of Shahe, and attention should be paid to the demand during the year - end completion peak [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The number of Challenger job cuts in the US in October increased significantly. The US copper inventory continued to rise, and the domestic refined copper de - stocking was less than expected. The suspension of Indonesia's second - largest copper mine has intensified the global copper shortage, and the short - term trend is expected to be high - level oscillatory [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price rose significantly on Thursday. The European aluminum premium rebounded. The domestic de - stocking was not smooth, and the supply and imports were at a high level, while the demand was weakening marginally. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to try shorting if the price rises above 21,800 [10]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is expected to increase, and the demand is still weak. The tin price is at a historical high, and the high price has begun to suppress physical demand. The short - to - medium - term price is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose on Thursday. The Jiangxi Natural Resources Department released a mining right transfer income assessment report, which may promote the resumption of production at Jiaxiaowo. It is advisable to hold a light position and wait for the "emotional bottom" [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon rose on Thursday. The demand was relatively stable, and the social inventory increased slightly at a high level. The market is expected to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon declined slightly on Thursday. There is a stalemate between strong policy expectations and weak reality. The spot price is supported by policy expectations, but the terminal demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate within a high - level range, and range - bound operations are advisable [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Fed's hawkish stance and employment data have increased the uncertainty of a December interest rate cut. The government shutdown will continue, and the oil price is under medium - to - long - term pressure [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt continued to break through the previous low and has not bottomed out yet. The basis is low, and the inventory is accumulating. The supply pressure is increasing, and attention should be paid to the cost fluctuations of crude oil [15]. - **PX**: The price of PX fluctuated due to news of polyester production cuts. The demand is supported by high PTA开工, and the supply is tight. The short - term price is mainly driven by crude oil cost fluctuations [16]. - **PTA**: The price of PTA rose due to production cut news but fell back at night. The market doubts the authenticity of the news. The downstream开工 has declined, and the supply is high. The price is under pressure in the short term [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol rose with the polyester market but is still under pressure. The port inventory is accumulating, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to be cautious before the price reaches a new low [17]. - **Short - fiber**: The price of short - fiber rose slightly with the polyester sector but is under pressure later. The terminal orders are declining seasonally, and the inventory is accumulating. It is advisable to short on rallies in the medium - term [17]. - **Methanol**: The port spot price of methanol rebounded, and the basis strengthened slightly. The port inventory is at a high level but is showing a slight de - stocking trend. The inland inventory is accumulating, and the price is weakening. The short - term price may decline, but the downward space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate later [18]. - **PP**: The market price of PP moved slightly downward. The supply growth rate is higher than the demand recovery rate, but the demand has shown marginal improvement. The crude oil price rebound supports the cost. The price is expected to decline inertia in the short term [19]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE declined. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening after the peak season. The crude oil price provides limited support. The price is expected to continue to decline [19]. - **Urea**: The urea market is stable, with individual enterprises raising prices slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is mixed. The export price is expected to oscillate at a low level [20]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean price fell overnight. The market is optimistic about the repair of Sino - US soybean trade relations. The USDA will release a report on November 15. If the yield per unit is further lowered, the cost - repair logic of US soybeans will be enhanced [21]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of concentrated soybean arrivals in China is increasing, and the supply of soybean meal is sufficient. With the repair of Sino - US agricultural trade relations, the soybean meal inventory may increase, which will limit the upside potential [22]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of Malaysian palm oil fell. The over - expected production increase since October has put pressure on the price. India's palm oil imports decreased in October, and the production in Malaysia continued to increase in November [22]. - **Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil**: The price of soybean oil adjusted weakly. The supply - demand situation is still unfavorable, but it is relatively resistant to decline. The rapeseed oil inventory is high, but the rapeseed inventory is low, and the basis is strong due to trade concerns [23]. - **Corn**: The price of corn in the northern port has limited upward momentum, and the supply - demand situation in North China is balanced. The supply exceeds demand, but the low downstream inventory and strong wheat price provide some support [23]. - **Pigs**: The national pig price has been falling since November. The supply pressure remains, and the price is unlikely to rebound significantly before the winter solstice pickling peak in December [24].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing a bullish trend, with prices fluctuating around $4001 per ounce, indicating a potential upward movement after eight days of consolidation [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. job market shows signs of weakness, with a surprising decrease of 9,100 non-farm jobs in October, reversing the previous increase of 33,000 [2]. - Challenger companies reported a record high in layoffs, exceeding 153,000, marking a 175.3% year-on-year increase, the highest for this period since 2003 [2]. - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have surpassed 70%, reflecting growing concerns over economic conditions [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - There is a notable division among policymakers regarding the future of interest rates, with some expressing caution due to a lack of key inflation data caused by government shutdowns [2]. - The Chicago Fed President highlighted the uncertainty in economic visibility, while the Cleveland Fed President argued for tighter monetary policy due to persistent inflation [2]. Group 3: Gold Market Analysis - International gold is trading within a range of $3950 to $4020, with a delicate balance at the $4000 mark, which has resisted upward movements three times [3]. - The current macroeconomic environment, characterized by mixed signals from U.S. economic data, is reinforcing the volatile nature of gold prices, with the market awaiting the Federal Reserve's decision to break the current stalemate [3]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Key resistance levels for gold are identified between $4000 and $4015, with a defensive position suggested above $4020 [4]. - A target range for potential downward movement is set between $3970 and $3930, with a focus on monitoring market dynamics during Asian and European trading sessions [4].

Core Insights - The gold ETF fund (159937) has seen a recent increase of 0.27%, with a latest price of 8.76 yuan, and a cumulative rise of 0.74% over the past week [2] - Spot gold prices have surpassed $4000 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 0.59% [2] - The U.S. job market is facing challenges, with a decrease of 9,100 non-farm jobs in October and a significant rise in layoffs, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts [2] Market Performance - The gold ETF fund has a turnover rate of 0.23% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 86.62 million yuan [2] - The average daily transaction volume for the gold ETF fund over the past week is 1.309 billion yuan, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. job market data shows a concerning trend, with the Challenger job cuts reaching 153,100 in October, a year-on-year increase of 175.3%, marking the highest level for the same period since 2003 [2] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has led to a suspension of official inflation data releases, raising concerns among Federal Reserve officials regarding future monetary policy [2] Investment Trends - According to CITIC Futures, there is currently a lack of significant drivers for precious metal prices, with expectations of a volatile market in the short term [3] - The gold ETF fund has seen a net inflow of 194 million yuan recently, with 12 out of the last 21 trading days showing net inflows totaling 5.293 billion yuan, averaging 252 million yuan per day [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is weak, and the overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts decreases, while the long - term expectation of a loose monetary policy still exists [1]. - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. In the short term, due to the strong resilience of macro - economic indicators, there is no strong need for a comprehensive interest rate cut, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is limited. In the long term, a relatively loose monetary environment is needed to stabilize the demand side, which strongly supports treasury bond futures. Overall, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The time - cycle definitions are: short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month. For the TL2512 variety, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, and the view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is the change in interest rate cut expectations [1]. 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The short - term and long - term driving logics are based on macro - economic indicators and the need for a monetary environment [5].

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a temporary rise due to increased risk aversion but fell back as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials dampened rate cut expectations, closing at $3984.80 per ounce, a decrease of 0.20% [1] - In October, U.S. companies announced layoffs totaling 153074, a year-on-year increase of 175.3%, marking a seven-month high, with a month-on-month increase of 183% [1] Group 2 - Current precious metal prices lack significant drivers, with expectations of maintaining a volatile pattern in the short term, particularly around the December trading window and the Federal Reserve's meeting [2] - Long-term factors such as excessive debt and de-globalization are seen as core drivers of declining U.S. dollar credit, with gold being viewed as a preferred asset for hedging against dollar credit risk, supported by ongoing global central bank gold purchases [2]

Core Points - The Bank of England decided to maintain the base interest rate at 4%, aligning with market expectations [1][2] - The decision reflects a pause in the previous trend of quarterly rate cuts since August 2024 [1][2] - The current economic conditions indicate a high overall inflation rate, but risks from weak demand are more pronounced [2][4] Economic Outlook - The Bank of England predicts that the inflation rate will approach 3% by early 2026 and reach the 2% target by the second quarter of 2027 [3] - GDP growth forecasts have been adjusted, with 2025 expected at 1.5% (up from 1.25%), 2026 at 1.2% (down from 1.25%), 2027 at 1.6% (up from 1.5%), and 2028 at 1.8% [3] Monetary Policy Insights - The decision to keep rates unchanged was passed with a 5-4 vote, with Governor Bailey casting the decisive vote [5] - Bailey indicated that future rate cuts are likely but depend on confirming that inflation is moving towards the 2% target [5][4] - The upcoming autumn budget announcement is expected to influence future monetary policy decisions [7][8] Currency Impact - Following the announcement, the British pound fell approximately 30 points against the US dollar, trading at 1.30606 [6] - Analysts predict continued pressure on the pound, with potential further depreciation if rate cuts occur in December [6][8] Fiscal Considerations - The upcoming autumn budget is anticipated to include tax increases to address fiscal shortfalls, which may suppress consumer demand and alleviate inflationary pressures [7][8] - Uncertainty surrounding the budget has led to a cautious approach from businesses and households, potentially stifling economic activity [8]

Market Overview - US stock markets experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.84%, the S&P 500 dropping by 1.12%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreasing by 1.90% [1][2] - European markets also faced downturns, with the FTSE 100 down by 0.42%, the DAX 30 down by 1.19%, and the CAC 40 down by 1.38% [2] Economic Indicators - Concerns over the job market intensified, with US companies laying off a total of 153,074 workers in October, a 183% increase from September and nearly three times the number from the same month last year, marking the highest October layoffs since 2022 [3] - The US non-farm employment decreased by 9,100 in October, following a previous increase of 33,000 [3] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's officials expressed mixed signals regarding future interest rate cuts, contributing to market volatility [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is estimated at 70.6%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is 29.4% [4] Commodity Market - Domestic and international soybean prices have seen significant increases since October 15, driven by expectations of Chinese trade purchases [5] - The price of US soybeans reached a 15-month high, surpassing 1,100 cents per bushel, with a notable increase in procurement rates for December shipments [5] - However, the current pricing dynamics suggest that US soybeans may lack competitiveness compared to Brazilian soybeans due to higher import costs [6] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that US soybean prices will remain strong, with attention on the USDA's November supply and demand report expected to lower projections for soybean yield, total exports, and final inventory [6] - The domestic soybean meal market faces dual pressures from high crushing volumes and overseas procurement hedging [6] - The outlook for soybean oil is less affected by US-China trade policies, primarily following the trends of the oilseed sector, with limited downside potential due to current low prices [7]

Group 1: Currency and Economic Policies - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced the addition of the Chinese Yuan as a settlement currency for its clearing house, set to launch in December 2025 [1] - The U.S. job market is facing challenges, with a reported decrease of 9,100 non-farm jobs in October, contrasting with a previous increase of 33,000 jobs [1] - The Chicago Fed President expressed concerns over the lack of key inflation data due to the government shutdown, indicating a need for caution in future interest rate decisions [1][2] Group 2: Central Bank Decisions - The Bank of England maintained its interest rate at 4%, marking the first pause in its rate-cutting cycle since August of the previous year, amidst internal divisions regarding future rate cuts [2] - The Norwegian central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at 4.00%, citing ongoing inflation concerns despite a slight decrease in core inflation [2] - Malaysia's central bank held its overnight policy rate steady at 2.75%, aligning with market expectations [3] Group 3: Market Reactions - U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.84%, the S&P 500 down 1.12%, and the Nasdaq down 1.9% [4] - U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.083% [5] - International precious metal futures saw declines, with COMEX gold futures down 0.20% to $3,984.80 per ounce [5]

来源：市场资讯 11月6日，昨日黄金呈现震荡整理走势。亚盘开盘后金价展开反弹，最高触及3980美元上方后承压回 落，但下行幅度有限，在3950美元上方获得支撑后再度收复失地。随后价格基本维持在3980美元附近窄 幅波动，最终收于3978美元，日线录得一根小阳线。 周四（11月6日）美国联邦政府停摆已进入第36天，刷新了自1879年以来的最长停摆纪录。持续的僵局 可能导致全美航空系统自本周五起削减10%的计划航班，进一步加剧经济混乱，推升市场避险情绪。此 外，美国最高法院大法官对特朗普大规模征收关税的合法性提出质疑。若相关关税政策被推翻，美国财 政赤字可能急剧扩大，进而增强黄金的避险吸引力。 然而，另一方面，美国ADP就业数据强于市场预期，ISM非制造业PMI也表现强劲，这些因素导致市场 对美联储12月降息的预期进一步降温。美元指数刷新近五个月高点，限制了黄金的上涨动能。整体来 看，黄金的避险属性与强势美元及降息预期降温形成多空拉锯，市场情绪趋于谨慎。建议各位投资者在 操作上保持稳健，合理控制仓位。 从技术上来看，昨日黄金主体结构是走震荡路线的，短线结构重心略被上抬，导致隔夜走势区间进一步 缩窄，今日行情异动的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that after a sell-off, spot gold prices are gradually recovering to the range of $3980 - $3990, but the current momentum struggles to challenge the psychological barrier of $4000 [1] - The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.16%, marking a one-month high, and if it climbs to 4.21%, it may boost the dollar and pressure gold market sentiment [1] - Market adjustments regarding interest rate cut expectations will have a significant impact on gold in the coming weeks, with traders pricing in a 61% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [1] Group 2 - The upcoming traditional seasonal bullish cycle for precious metals is expected from December to January [1]