Group 1 - The European Union will face 50% tariffs starting in June, as announced by President Donald Trump, indicating a significant escalation in trade tensions [1] - Following a period of relative calm, tensions between the United States and the European Union have flared up again, suggesting potential impacts on trade relations and market stability [1] Group 2 - A membership price increase for High Yield Landlord is set to occur on June 10th, rising from $399 to $499, which may affect investor decisions regarding joining the platform [2] - The company is limiting new sign-ups to better serve its existing 2,000 members, indicating a focus on quality over quantity in its membership strategy [2] Group 3 - The company is promoting its investment offerings, including top investment picks for June 2025 and expert REIT strategies, which may attract new investors looking for guidance [3] - The emphasis on a thriving investor community and substantial annual investment in research highlights the company's commitment to providing valuable resources to its members [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the S&P 500 index is expected to experience minimal volatility following the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, reflecting improved investor sentiment due to recent positive economic data [1] - The implied volatility for the S&P 500 index is projected at ±0.9%, the lowest since February, and significantly below the average actual volatility of 1.3% over the past year [1] - Following initial fears regarding the impact of tariffs on the economy, the market has rebounded as the Trump administration has eased some tariff measures, leading to a 2.8% decline from the index's all-time high earlier this year [1] Group 2 - Economists surveyed predict that the U.S. will add approximately 130,000 jobs in May, a decrease from 177,000 in the previous month, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2% [3] - Trader positions reflect optimism regarding the non-farm data, with hedge funds turning net short on CBOE volatility index futures after the S&P 500's best monthly performance since 1990 [4] - The Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index has turned positive for the first time since the S&P 500's record high in February, indicating stronger economic data [4] Group 3 - A report from JPMorgan suggests that if May's job additions fall below 100,000, the S&P 500 could face a 3% decline, although this scenario has a low probability of about 5% [5] - The baseline scenario estimates job additions between 115,000 and 135,000, which could lead to a 0.25% to 1% increase in the index [5] - The upcoming employment data will provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve's policy direction amid challenges such as trade uncertainties and potential inflation [7] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is attempting to balance policy rate adjustments in light of trade war uncertainties and economic slowdown, with the FOMC entering a quiet period ahead of the June 18 rate decision [7] - Market sentiment may remain tolerant even if job growth slows, as employment data is considered lagging and the real impact of tariff policies on the job market may take months to manifest [7]

世界500强投资企业 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/6/4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 日素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX更金 | CONEX日银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/登司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/6/3 | 3360. 36 | 35. 30 | 3385. 00 | 34. 39 | 783. 10 | 8456. 00 | 779.42 | 8420.00 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term core logic is that Trump's trade war is fluctuating, the risks of economic recession and geopolitical unrest are rising, the risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, and the Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts [2]. - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and bullish in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: Short - term Trump trade war fluctuations, increased risks of economic recession and geopolitical unrest, rising stagflation risk in the US economy, and the Fed's cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts [2]. - **Safe - haven Attribute**: Trump plans to raise import steel tariffs to 50% from June 4th. The EU may counter - retaliate if the US does not lower tariffs. The Russia - Ukraine - Istanbul peace talks broke down, and Iran may reject the US nuclear proposal [2]. - **Monetary Attribute**: The Fed acknowledges the potential simultaneous rise of inflation and unemployment. The US manufacturing industry continues to shrink under the shadow of tariffs. The market expects the next Fed rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index is under pressure and回调, while the US Treasury yield is oscillating strongly [2]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index is oscillating and rebounding, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [3]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price [6]. - **Fund and Inventory Situation**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions, and the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently [6]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are 67241.46 billion US dollars, showing a decrease compared to the previous period [9]. - **Inflation Data**: CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and other inflation - related indicators show certain changes, with some indicators decreasing [11]. - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP shows a decline in both annualized year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter terms. The unemployment rate remains stable, and other labor market indicators also have corresponding changes [11]. - **Other Data**: Data on the real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys all show different trends [11]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability distribution of the Fed's interest rate range at different meetings from 2025 to 2026 is provided, showing a general trend of gradually increasing the probability of lower interest rates over time [14].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Wednesday, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) rose collectively. The main contract EC2508 closed up 6.86%, and the other contracts closed up between 2 - 5%. The price increases announced by shipping companies slightly supported the futures prices. However, due to the uncertainty of the trade war and the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the demand expectation for the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) has turned cold, and the futures prices have large fluctuations. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 2199.100, up 141.1; EC second - main contract closing price: 1383, up 49.4. - EC2508 - EC2510 spread: 816.10, up 54.9; EC2508 - EC2512 spread: 629.00, up 68.1. - EC contract basis: - 93.13, down - 946.28. - EC main contract open interest: 47961, up 2192 [1]. Spot Market Data - SCFIS (Europe Line) (weekly): 1252.82, up 5.77; SCFIS (US West Coast Line) (weekly): 1718.11, down 1.68. - SCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly): 2072.71, up 486.59; Container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, up 0.03. - CCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly): 1117.61, up 10.21; CCFI (Europe Line) (weekly): 1375.62, down 16.99. - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1430.00, down 8.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1108.00, down 1.00. - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 9473.00, up 810.00; Average charter price (Cape - size ship): 17127.00, down 2637.00 [1]. Industry News - The US accused China of violating the Geneva talks consensus, but China firmly opposes this and has made solemn representations. - US President Trump announced to raise the tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and their derivatives from 25% to 50% starting from June 4, 2025, except for those imported from the UK which remain at 25%. - The OECD lowered the economic growth forecasts for the US and the world. The US growth rate in 2025 is lowered from 2.2% to 1.6%, and is expected to be 1.5% in 2026. The global growth forecast for 2025 is lowered to 2.9%, and inflation rises to 3.2%, with the US possibly approaching 4%. The Fed may keep interest rates unchanged this year, and trade barriers and policy risks will significantly affect the growth prospects [1]. Key Data to Focus On - June 5, 17:00: Eurozone PPI monthly rate for April. - June 5, 20:15: Eurozone ECB deposit facility rate as of June 5. - June 5, 20:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 31 (in 10,000 people). - June 5, 20:30: US trade balance for April (in 100 million US dollars) [1].

一、特朗普关税政策正式落地，全球贸易体系迎"黑色星期三" 北京时间6月4日凌晨，特朗普政府正式将进口钢铁和铝关税从25%提升至50%，并通过白宫发言人证实，已向主要贸易伙伴发出最后通牒，要求在24小时内 提交"贸易谈判最佳方案"。这一政策追溯至5月30日宣布，原计划6月1日生效，因联邦上诉法院短暂叫停而推迟。美国商务部数据显示，2024年美国钢铁进 口额约1200亿美元，关税翻倍后预计每年增加财政收入约600亿美元，但将导致制造业成本飙升，汽车、建筑等行业面临供应链断裂风险。 注：市场受关税政策与美联储政策预期双重驱动，此文并不构成投资建议。 二、黄金市场剧烈震荡，避险买盘与美元反弹多空博弈 关税政策落地引发全球金融市场巨震，现货黄金在亚市早盘上演"过山车"行情：开盘高至3361美元/盎司，随后因美元指数反弹承压下探3346.47美元，后又 突拉升到今日高点3372.55美元。伦敦金银市场协会（LBMA）数据显示，关税生效后1小时内，黄金避险买盘量同比激增200%，但美元指数反弹0.75%至 99.15，部分抵消了上涨动能。 | C 现货黄金 XAUUSD | | | | | --- | --- | --- ...

在中美关税停战之后，中国所保留的后手策略开始取得效果，而特朗普政府因被困在关键利益上显得束 手无策，如今只希望能尽快与中国方面取得联系。最近，美国财政部长贝森特透露，特朗普总统预计将 很快与中方领导人进行沟通，旨在解决诸如关键稀土及矿产等一系列贸易争端。此外，在同一天，白宫 国家经济委员会主任哈西特在接受采访时也表示，他认为中美双方在很快将就关税问题展开讨论。 因此，这场博弈，美方需从中吸取深刻的教训。中国绝非软弱可欺，任人捏造。稀土与供应链都在中国 手中，双方的合作应建立在真诚之上，交换则需有相应的底线。如果美国继续玩弄"倒打一耙"的把戏， 只会让自己愈发陷入困境。历史绝不会偏袒那些自以为是的一方，中国有句古话送给华盛顿："搬起石 头砸自己的脚，痛苦与否，自己心里清楚！"过去几年美国对中国的折磨已经够多，未来的时间里，轮 到中国给美国上上课了！ 现在，美国显得极其急迫，但他们是否首先回顾过自己所犯的错误呢？在日内瓦协议刚刚签署后，特朗 普便急不可耐地撕毁承诺，先后施加了芯片禁令、限制学生签证，还暂停向中国商用飞机提供适用于 C919的技术，包括发动机和飞控系统，这种举动被称为遵守协议吗？可这简直就是把协议当 ...

实时黄金订单流分析 金市暗流涌动！就业市场和贸易战博弈下，黄金如何交易？订单流又给出哪些进场信号？顺姐正在实时 分析，点击观看 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - The recent U.S.-China trade discussions have seen both sides maintaining communication on economic concerns, particularly regarding U.S. export control measures in the semiconductor sector [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has issued a directive to halt supplies to Chinese clients from several EDA software companies, which are crucial for chip design, indicating a significant escalation in trade tensions [1] - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariffs imposed through executive orders were overreaching, highlighting the ongoing legal and economic ramifications of the trade war [3] Group 2 - The upcoming G20 summit in November may serve as a critical juncture for U.S.-China relations, with potential discussions aimed at resolving trade issues [3] - There is a growing sentiment among U.S. business leaders that the current tariff policies are unpopular, with calls for a return to cooperative and mutually beneficial trade practices [5] - China's proactive diplomatic efforts with various global regions, including Latin America and the EU, suggest a strategic shift in response to U.S. trade policies, enhancing its international economic relationships [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: After OPEC's production increase in July, the previous negative factors were exhausted. With the threat of wildfires in Canada and rising geopolitical risks, combined with short - term macro - stability, oil prices are strong in the short - term. However, in the long - term, due to relatively weak demand and continuous supply growth, the upside space is limited. The short - term Brent price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the operating range moving up to $65 - 68 per barrel, and the medium - term range is expected to be $63 - 70 per barrel [1][2]. - Asphalt: The overall supply - demand pattern is loose. Although the cost of crude oil has increased, the market's acceptance of high - priced resources is poor. In the short - term, the terminal demand is limited, and the mainstream transaction price is concentrated at the lower end. However, due to the maintenance plan of some refineries and low inventory levels, the price has a certain upward trend [3][4]. - Liquefied gas: In the international market, the CP price has increased, while the FEI has decreased. In the domestic market, supply is increasing, and the summer off - season has increased the pressure on the market, with the fundamentals running weakly [8]. - Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has high near - month cracking and month - to - month spreads, and the spot premium has rebounded. The supply from Russia, Mexico, and the Middle East is expected to decline, while the demand for seasonal power generation is supportive. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a stable supply increase and weak downstream demand [9][11]. - Natural gas: In the US, due to increased demand, the price is expected to rebound. In Europe, supply restrictions and geopolitical tensions offset weak demand, and the price has returned above 35 euros. Europe still faces challenges in refilling gas storage [12][13]. - PX: As the efficiency of PX improves, the operating rate is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with the spot shortage situation expected to ease [14][16]. - PTA: The supply is expected to increase, while the polyester industry plans to reduce production, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to weaken, and the processing fee may be compressed [17][18]. - Ethylene glycol: The inventory is expected to decline in the short - term, but the supply will increase in June due to some restarted maintenance. The downstream polyester operating rate is weakening, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, maintaining a tight balance [20][21]. - Short - fiber: The operating rate is stable, and the terminal demand is mainly for fulfilling previous orders. There are still production reduction plans in June, but the supply loss is limited. The processing fee is expected to be strongly supported [22][23]. - Bottle - chip: The operating rate has decreased, and the processing fee fluctuates within a narrow range. In June, the downstream soft - drink industry will enter the production peak, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be strong, with the processing fee having strong support [24][26]. - Styrene: The supply is expected to increase, and the port inventory is expected to increase from a low level, with the supply - demand relationship weakening [26][27]. - PVC: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term, with supply increasing and demand affected by real estate and export uncertainties [29][30]. - Caustic soda: The 09 - contract is expected to be weak, with the medium - term trend being bearish. Although there is still some support in the short - term, the upward driving force for the spot price is weakening [30][31]. - Plastic and PP: The new production capacity is being realized, and the downstream demand is weak. The 09 - contract's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [32][34]. - Glass: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is affected by the real estate cycle. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the medium - term focus is on cost reduction and factory cold - repair [34][37]. - Soda ash: The supply is increasing, the cost is weakening, and the demand is stable in the short - term but worrying in the medium - term. The price is expected to decline gradually [38][40]. - Urea: The daily output is at a high level, and the demand is affected by factors such as international price changes, compound fertilizer production, and export policies. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [41][42]. - Methanol: The international supply is still high, the domestic supply is loose, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. The price is still recommended to be shorted on rebounds [43][45]. - Log: The downstream market is still sluggish, and the long - term market faces challenges from weak real - estate demand and increased port inventory. However, the large scale difference in delivery has a certain supporting effect on the current price [45][48]. - Double - offset paper: The market was weak in May, and in June, short - term technical rebounds may occur, but long - term risks from over - capacity and weak demand need to be vigilant [48][49]. - Corrugated paper: In May, the demand showed structural improvement, but in June, attention should be paid to factors such as the implementation of price - increase policies, export order sustainability, and waste - paper price fluctuations [50]. - Natural rubber: The domestic inventory is still at a high level, and the production index of French rubber machinery has decreased. The short - term trading strategy is to hold short positions [51][54]. - Pulp: The domestic and foreign paper - making industries have shown signs of production reduction, which is negative for the SP single - side. The short - term trading strategy is to try to go long on a small scale [54][56]. - Butadiene rubber: The short - term supply contraction has led to price increases, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the expansion of downstream ABS capacity. The short - term trading strategy is to hold short positions [58][60]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2507 contract settled at $63.41, up $0.89 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.42%; Brent2508 contract settled at $65.63, up $1.00 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.55%. SC main contract 2507 rose 12.4 to 465 yuan per barrel, and in the night session, it rose 4.0 to 469 yuan per barrel [1]. - Related News: The US has asked countries to submit their best trade negotiation plans by Wednesday. The US labor market is showing signs of softening, with an increase in job vacancies but also a large increase in layoffs [1]. - Logic Analysis: After OPEC's production increase, the previous negative factors were exhausted. Geopolitical risks have risen, and the macro - situation is stable in the short - term. However, in the long - term, due to weak demand and continuous supply growth, the upside space is limited [2]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term high - level oscillation, medium - term wide - range oscillation; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are expected to weaken; options are on hold [2]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2507 closed at 3524 points (+1.21%) in the night session, and BU2509 closed at 3495 points (+1.13%) in the night session. The spot price in Shandong on June 3 was 3470 - 3870 yuan, in the East China region was 3550 - 3620 yuan, and in the South China region was 3360 - 3450 yuan [3]. - Related News: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong rose by 25 yuan per ton. The demand is weak, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is poor. However, due to the maintenance plan of some refineries and low inventory levels, the price has increased [3][4]. - Logic Analysis: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is mainly stable. In the short - term, the terminal demand is limited, and the mainstream transaction price is concentrated at the lower end [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation; asphalt - crude oil spread oscillates at a high level; options are on hold [6]. Liquefied Gas - Market Review: PG2507 closed at 4075 (+0.27%) in the night session, and PG2508 closed at 4004 (+0.18%) in the night session. The spot price in South China, East China, and Shandong is given [6]. - Related News: The market in South China is generally stable, with some hidden discounts. The market in Shandong is stable with some small increases, and the ether - post - carbon - four market is expected to rise steadily [7]. - Logic Analysis: Internationally, the CP price has increased, and the FEI has decreased. Domestically, supply is increasing, and the summer off - season has increased market pressure, with the fundamentals running weakly [8]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU07 contract closed at 2943 (-0.03%) in the night session, and LU07 closed at 3535 (+1.61%) in the night session. The Singapore paper - futures market's month - to - month spreads are given [9]. - Related News: Russia's exports of some oil products are expected to change in June, and Nigeria's Dangote refinery will import a large amount of US WTI crude oil in July [9]. - Logic Analysis: High - sulfur fuel oil has high near - month cracking and month - to - month spreads, and the spot premium has rebounded. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a stable supply increase and weak downstream demand [11]. - Trading Strategy: On hold for single - side trading; go long on the FU9 - 1 positive spread when the price is low [12]. Natural Gas - Market Review: HH contract closed at 3.7 (+0.76%), TTF closed at 35.848 (+2.38%), and JKM closed at 12.345 (+1.69%) [12]. - Logic Analysis: In the US, due to increased demand, the price is expected to rebound. In Europe, supply restrictions and geopolitical tensions offset weak demand, and the price has returned above 35 euros. Europe still faces challenges in refilling gas storage [12][13]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on HH on dips; TTF is expected to oscillate strongly [14]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6524 (-1.42%) during the day and 6618 (+1.44%) in the night session. The spot price, MOPJ valuation, and PXN spread are given [14]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light [15]. - Logic Analysis: As the efficiency of PX improves, the operating rate is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with the spot shortage situation expected to ease [16]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; go long on PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [16]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4628 (-1.53%) during the day and 4706 (+1.69%) in the night session. The spot price and basis are given [17]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light, and a PTA device has restarted [15][18]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is expected to increase, while the polyester industry plans to reduce production, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to weaken, and the processing fee may be compressed [18]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; go long on PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [18]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 main contract closed at 4306 (-0.99%) during the day and 4319 (+0.30%) in the night session. The spot price and basis are given [18][19]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light, and some EG devices have restarted or are under maintenance [20]. - Logic Analysis: The inventory is expected to decline in the short - term, but the supply will increase in June due to some restarted maintenance. The downstream polyester operating rate is weakening, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, maintaining a tight balance [21]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; basis positive spread; sell call options [22]. Short - fiber - Market Review: PF2507 main contract closed at 6338 (-0.72%) during the day and 6426 (+1.39%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions is given [22]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light [23]. - Logic Analysis: The operating rate is stable, and the terminal demand is mainly for fulfilling previous orders. There are still production reduction plans in June, but the supply loss is limited. The processing fee is expected to be strongly supported [23]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; short PTA and long PF; options are on hold [24]. Bottle - chip - Market Review: PR2507 main contract closed at 5912 (-1.17%) during the day and 5958 (+0.78%) in the night session. The spot price of polyester bottle - chips is given [24]. - Related News: The export quotes of polyester bottle - chip factories are mostly stable [25]. - Logic Analysis: The operating rate has decreased, and the processing fee fluctuates within a narrow range. In June, the downstream soft - drink industry will enter the production peak, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be strong, with the processing fee having strong support [26]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation consolidation; options are on hold; sell call options [26]. Styrene - Market Review: EB2507 main contract closed at 7018 (-1.71%) during the day and 7133 (+1.64%) in the night session. The spot price and basis in different periods are given [26]. - Related News: The inventory in the East China main port of styrene has increased, and the upstream pure - benzene port inventory has also increased [26]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is expected to increase, and the port inventory is expected to increase from a low level, with the supply - demand relationship weakening [27]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation weakly; options are on hold; sell call options [28]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: The spot price of PVC has slightly decreased, and the spot price of caustic soda in different regions has changed [29]. - Related News: The price of caustic soda in some factories has changed, and the Indian BIS hearing has no news yet [30]. - Logic Analysis: PVC's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term, and caustic soda's 09 - contract is expected to be weak, with the medium - term trend being bearish [30][31]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, go short on caustic soda at high prices and hold short positions on PVC; for arbitrage, arrange a 7 - 9 reverse spread when the spot weakens; options are on hold [32]. Plastic and PP - Market Review: The spot price of LLDPE in different regions has changed, and the spot price of PP in different regions has decreased [32]. - Related News: The maintenance ratio of PE and PP has decreased [33]. - Logic Analysis: The new production capacity is being realized, and the downstream demand is weak. The 09 - contract's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [34]. - Trading Strategy: Short - and medium - term weakness, hold short positions; options are on hold; arbitrage is on hold [34]. Glass - Market Review: The glass futures 09 - contract closed at 954 (-2.85%) during the day and 965 (+1.15%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions has changed [34][35]. - Related News: The China May Caixin Manufacturing PMI has contracted, and the price of the domestic float - glass market has decreased slightly. A glass production line has restarted [36]. - Logic Analysis: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is affected by the real estate cycle. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the medium - term focus is on cost reduction and factory cold - repair [37]. - Trading Strategy: Price oscillates weakly [38]. Soda Ash - Market Review: The soda - ash futures 09 - contract closed at 1185 (-1.2%) during the day and 1213 (+2.4%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions has changed [38]. - Related News: A soda - ash device has resumed operation, and the domestic soda - ash market is adjusting weakly [39][40]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is increasing, the cost is weakening, and the demand is stable in the short - term but worrying in the medium - term. The price is expected to decline gradually [40]. - Trading Strategy: Bearish judgment, gradual