Report Information - Report Title: Spiral Ore Industry Chain Monthly Report - Report Date: October 31, 2025 - Author: Wang Nan - Company: AVIC Futures [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In November, the key agreement between China and the US is expected to continue to boost market sentiment, and the gradual formation of the 15th Five - Year Plan in China enhances the development confidence of the ferrous metal industry. However, after the macro - level benefits are realized, the market may return to the fundamental logic. The steel market still faces high - inventory pressure, and the resolution of the inventory contradiction may depend on production cuts. The iron ore market is expected to be in high - level oscillation, with prices first falling and then rising [83][86]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review - **Steel**: In October, steel prices continued to bottom out. At the end of the month, driven by positive macro - factors such as the expectation of Sino - US talks and the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan, steel prices gradually increased. Spot prices were relatively stable, with limited demand improvement and high inventory pressure in the peak season, and the later rise was mainly driven by macro - factors and cost support. The basis declined [5]. - **Iron Ore**: In October, iron ore prices fluctuated widely, first falling and then rising. Initially, they were dragged down by weak steel demand, concerns about increased arrivals and declining hot - metal production. But in late October, with the improvement of macro - expectations, iron ore prices rebounded and showed a stronger trend. The basis returned to normal [7]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **Overseas**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% - 4.00%, and decided to end the balance - sheet reduction from December 1. However, Fed Chair Powell's hawkish speech put pressure on the market, and the probability of a December interest - rate cut dropped to 67.8%. At the beginning of the month, the US federal government shutdown remained unresolved, and Sino - US trade frictions escalated, but then the two sides resumed negotiations, and the market risk appetite improved [10][11][12]. - **Domestic**: In the third quarter, China's GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, lower than expected. In September, the manufacturing PMI declined, indicating a weakening of domestic demand. The 15th Five - Year Plan focuses on building a modern industrial system, strengthening scientific and technological self - reliance, and expanding domestic demand, which will have a profound impact on the demand structure of bulk commodities [20][29][30]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis **Terminal Demand** - **Real Estate**: In September, real estate investment and sales remained weak. Investment, new construction, and completion areas all declined year - on - year, and housing prices continued to fall. The 15th Five - Year Plan aims to promote the high - quality development of the real estate industry, and it is expected that housing prices will stabilize and rebound in the future [37]. - **Infrastructure**: In 2025, the growth rate of infrastructure investment continued to decline. In September, the issuance of new special bonds decreased. The 15th Five - Year Plan emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system and the improvement of infrastructure [40]. - **Automobile**: In September, China's automobile production and sales reached a record high for the same period. New - energy vehicles were the main driving force for market growth. The joint issuance of the "Automobile Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" by eight departments provided support for the market [43]. - **Excavator**: In September, the production of excavators continued to grow. The domestic and foreign sales of construction machinery products increased year - on - year, benefiting from the equipment replacement cycle, policy support, and improved downstream demand [46]. - **Export**: In September, China's exports increased year - on - year, mainly due to the low - base effect and global demand resilience. However, with the increase in the base in October and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff policies, export growth may decline. Steel exports still have price advantages but face challenges from trade barriers [47][48]. **Supply - Side** - **Production**: In the first nine months of 2025, China's crude - steel and pig - iron production decreased year - on - year. In October, the blast - furnace and electric - furnace operating rates of steel mills declined, and the production of hot - rolled coils remained at a high level [52][57]. - **Profit**: Recently, the prices of furnace materials have risen, and the profitability of steel mills has declined, but they have not reached the point of active production cuts [53]. - **Inventory**: In October, the steel market was in the peak season, but inventory did not decrease effectively. After the National Day holiday, the rapid resumption of production by steel mills and the slow release of terminal demand led to a rapid increase in the inventory of five major steel products. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased, and the inventory pressure needs to be alleviated [63]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for rebar weakened, while that for hot - rolled coils still showed resilience [66]. - **Iron Ore Import and Shipment**: In September, China's iron - ore imports increased. In October, the global iron - ore shipment slowed down. The production and sales of the four major iron - ore mines in the third quarter were divergent, and the expected increase in the fourth quarter is limited [69][70]. - **Hot - Metal Production**: Since October, hot - metal production has declined slightly but remains at a high level. Due to the inventory accumulation of downstream steel products, there is an expectation of a further decline in hot - metal production, which may put pressure on iron - ore prices [75]. - **Inventory**: In October, port iron - ore inventory gradually accumulated, while steel - mill inventory decreased after a seasonal increase during the holiday [79]. 4. Future Outlook - **Steel**: In November, the steel market may return to the fundamental logic after the macro - level boost fades. The high - inventory problem needs to be solved, and the resolution may depend on production cuts. The demand for building materials is weak, and it is difficult to improve in the future [83]. - **Iron Ore**: In November, iron - ore prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, first falling and then rising. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the downstream steel - product inventory problem may lead to a decline in hot - metal production, but the iron - ore price decline is limited, and prices may rise with the increase in winter - storage demand [86].

Group 1: Market Review - In October, natural rubber showed a "first decline then rise" trend, while synthetic rubber was weak. The main contract of natural rubber (RU) had a monthly increase of 0.37% with a decrease of 444 hands in positions; the main contract of 20 - rubber (NR) had a monthly increase of 1.07% with a decrease of 11,713 hands in positions; the main contract of synthetic rubber (BR) had a monthly decrease of 4.73% with an increase of 13,654 hands in positions [6]. - After the National Day holiday, multiple macro - factors led to a significant increase in the "gold" sector, and industrial products were under pressure. Rubber followed the adjustment. After the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, the macro - expectation improved, and rubber recovered its previous decline. The synthetic rubber declined significantly due to the cost collapse caused by the sharp decline of butadiene [6]. Group 2: Data Analysis Natural Rubber Raw Material Price - As of October 30, the glue price in Thailand was 56 Thai baht/kg, the cup - glue price was 53.3 Thai baht/kg, the glue price in Yunnan, China was 14,100 yuan/ton, and the raw material price in Hainan was 13,100 yuan/ton. Since October, affected by rainfall, rubber tapping was difficult, and raw material prices were strong, providing cost support. In November, if rainfall eases, the upside of raw material prices is limited; otherwise, cost support remains [8]. Natural Rubber Import Volume - In September 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65%. The top three import sources in September were Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia, with imports of 215,200 tons, 144,000 tons, and 55,600 tons respectively, all with significant month - on - month increases [10]. Rubber Inventory - As of October 24, the spot inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 68,705 tons, slightly decreased from the beginning of the month but increased by 14,780.8 tons compared with the same period last year; the general trade spot inventory was 363,524 tons, slightly decreased from the beginning of the month and increased by 85,478.52 tons compared with the same period last year; the domestic third - party inventory was 1,038,951 tons, slightly decreased from the beginning of the month and decreased by 1,634 tons compared with last year. Overall, the domestic natural rubber inventory decreased in October, and the inventory structure continued to improve [13]. Butadiene Price and Production Profit of Butadiene Rubber - In October 2025, the domestic butadiene market price declined. The supply was expected to be loose, and the inventory of upstream and downstream enterprises increased, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction. The decline of butadiene price improved the production profit of butadiene rubber enterprises. As of the week of October 31, the theoretical production gross profit of butadiene rubber enterprises was 153.714 yuan/ton, an increase of 48.43 yuan/ton compared with the same period last year, and turned from loss to profit compared with the beginning of October [15]. Butadiene Rubber Inventory - In October, the output of butadiene rubber enterprises was 137,579 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,269 tons and a year - on - year increase of 26,703 tons. Due to limited downstream demand, the inventory of enterprises was under pressure to decline. As of the week of October 31, the inventory of sample butadiene rubber production enterprises was 27,200 tons, an increase from the beginning of the month and an increase of 3,400 tons compared with the same period last year. The inventory of traders continued to decline, but still increased compared with the same period last year [18]. Tire Export - In September 2025, China's truck and bus tire export volume was 400,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.86% and a year - on - year increase of 8.74%. The cumulative export volume from January to September was 3.6279 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.67%. The export volume of passenger car tires was 260,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.28% and a year - on - year increase of 2.87%. The cumulative export volume from January to September was 2.5008 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.26% with a narrowing increase. The export of truck and bus tires to the EU decreased by 25.70% month - on - month and 23.58% year - on - year, and the export of passenger car tires to the EU decreased by 38.9% month - on - month and 22.9% year - on - year, mainly due to the EU's anti - dumping policy [19]. Tire Inventory - As of the end of October, the inventory turnover days of all - steel tires were about 39.01 days, a decrease of about 0.2 days compared with the same period last year, and the inventory turnover days of semi - steel tires were about 44.82 days, an increase of about 8.33 days compared with the same period last year. After the "Double Festival" holiday in October, tire enterprises resumed production, but due to trade frictions, the export orders faced pressure, and the overall inventory declined slowly. The inventory pressure of all - steel tires was relatively small, while that of semi - steel tires was large [21]. Tire Capacity Utilization - As of October 31, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.34%, a year - on - year increase of 6.15%. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.12%, a year - on - year decrease of 7.61%. After the holiday, the production capacity gradually recovered to the pre - holiday level. In the short term, the tire capacity utilization rate is expected to remain stable. The early snow in some areas stimulated the demand for snow tires, but the weak external demand and inventory pressure will limit the further increase of capacity utilization [23]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Macro - disturbances are expected to gradually decrease, and the market will return to fundamental expectation games - The short - term support from weather in rubber - producing areas exists, but the core contradiction is the combination of supply growth expectation and demand weakening risk. The seasonal supply increase due to improved weather in rubber - producing areas is the main pressure source. The EU's anti - dumping policy has led to a decline in tire exports, and domestic demand lacks bright performance. The cost collapse of synthetic rubber and its linkage effect will also drag down the price of natural rubber - In the short term, natural rubber will mainly fluctuate within a range. Pay attention to the development of Sino - US trade relations and US tariff policies, the weather in Southeast Asian main - producing areas on the supply side, and the start - up rate of domestic tire enterprises, inventory de - stocking, and the progress of the EU's anti - dumping policy on the demand side [27]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年10月31日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 供给端来看，多晶硅上周产量为29500吨，环比减少4.83%,预测10月排产为13.45万 吨，较上月产量环比增加3.46%。 需求端来看，上周硅片产量为14.73GW,环比增加2.64%,库存为18.47万吨，环比增加 6.70%,目前硅片生产为亏损状态，10月排产为55.68GW,较上月产量59.05GW，环比减 少5.70%；9月电池片产量为60.97GW,环比增加4.63%,上周电池片外销厂库存为 6.02GW,环比减少15.21%，目前生产为亏损状态，10月排产量为59.6GW,环比减少 2.24%；9月组件产量为49.9GW,环比增加1.42%,10月预计组件产量为48.31GW,环比减 少3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - After the implementation of interest rate cuts and tariff policies, the copper market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The shortage of copper ore supply strengthens the price bottom, but short - term rapid price increases may suppress demand. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom, and the main contract should focus on the support around 87,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate. Macro factors such as Sino - US economic and trade consultations and domestic policies support market confidence, while the supply - demand structure shows that supply is restricted and demand has structural highlights. Alumina prices are expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton, and the market has shown signs of bottoming out [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market continues to oscillate at a high level. Cost support is prominent, supply is shrinking, demand is moderately recovering, and social inventory is accumulating. The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate. The supply is relatively loose, but the smelting profit is compressed, and the subsequent supply increase may be limited. The demand is generally stable, and the LME has the risk of a short squeeze, which supports the zinc price. The main contract reference range is 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Tin prices may decline in the short term due to the hawkish statement on interest rate cuts. The supply of tin ore is tight, but the demand is weak. If the supply in Myanmar recovers well, tin prices may weaken; otherwise, they will continue to run strongly [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to oscillate. Macro factors are stable, but the inventory is accumulating, and the medium - term supply is loose. The main contract reference range is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to be weak and oscillate. Macro sentiment has improved, but downstream demand during the peak season is insufficient, and the supply side has pressure from production scheduling and social inventory. The main contract reference range is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain strong in the short term. The downstream demand is better than expected, and the industry is continuously destocking. The main contract reference range is 83,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 88,065 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 883 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spread shows different changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 112.10 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.31%. The import volume was 33.43 million tons, an increase of 7 million tons compared with the previous month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 0.38% [1]. Aluminum and Alumina Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 21,200 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. The import profit and loss is - 2,515 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spread has different changes [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.74%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 361.48 million tons, a decrease of 3.16%. The import volume increased by 13.57%, and the export volume increased by 13.07% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,300 yuan/ton, up 0.47%. The month - to - month spread shows different changes [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.48%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.30 million tons, an increase of 4.43%. The import volume of non - wrought aluminum alloy ingots increased by 15.77%, and the export volume decreased by 19.24% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,250 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The import profit and loss is - 4,757 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spread has different changes [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 60.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.17%. The import volume decreased by 11.61%, and the export volume increased by 696.78% [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 284,000 yuan/ton, down 0.42%. The LME 0 - 3 premium is 10.02 US dollars/ton, down 74.95% [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the import of tin ore was 8,714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a decrease of 31.71%. The export volume increased by 6.59%, and the average operating rate decreased by 31.77% [11]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122,200 yuan/ton, up 0.25%. The import profit and loss is - 1,540 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spread has different changes [13]. Supply and Inventory - The production of refined nickel products is 32,200 tons, an increase of 1.26%. SHFE inventory is 36,075 tons, an increase of 4.81%. Social inventory is 48,802 tons, an increase of 2.29% [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot - futures price difference is 385 yuan/ton, up 25.40% [15]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) is 182.17 million tons, an increase of 0.38%. The import volume increased by 2.70%, and the export volume decreased by 6.55% [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 80,000 yuan/ton, up 1.07%. The basis is - 1,740 yuan/ton, down 5.45% [17]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, an increase of 2.37%. The demand was 116,801 tons, an increase of 12.28%. The import volume decreased by 10.30%, and the export volume decreased by 59.12% [17].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a daily analysis of the non - ferrous metals market on October 30, 2025, covering copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, cast aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate [1]. - It includes market reviews, important information, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each metal [1][2][3]. Group 2: Market Reviews Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 87,960 yuan/ton, down 0.1%, and the Shanghai copper index increased positions by 2,982 lots to 620,000 lots. LME closed at $11,090/ton, up 0.55%. Shanghai copper spot was at a discount of 55 yuan/ton [1]. Alumina - The alumina 2601 contract decreased by 28 yuan to 2,816 yuan/ton. The northern spot comprehensive price of alumina was 2,840 yuan, up 5 yuan [8]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract decreased by 10 yuan to 21,245 yuan/ton. Spot prices in East China, South China, and Central China were 21,190 yuan (up 30), 21,070 yuan (flat), and 21,050 yuan (up 10) respectively [16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract increased by 100 yuan to 20,750 yuan/ton. The spot price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in various regions remained flat [24]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc 2512 contract fell 0.13% to 22,365 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index increased positions by 4,449 lots to 214,800 lots. The spot price in Shanghai was 22,300 - 22,425 yuan/ton [31]. Lead - The Shanghai lead 2512 contract fell 0.06% to 17,350 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index decreased positions by 2,688 lots to 119,800 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead was flat at 17,200 yuan/ton [37]. Nickel - The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2512 decreased by 40 to 120,980 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 3,185 lots. The premium of Jinchuan nickel, Russian nickel, and electrowinning nickel changed to varying degrees [42]. Stainless Steel - The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 decreased by 50 to 12,725 yuan/ton, and the index decreased positions by 8,627 lots. The spot price of cold - rolled was 12,550 - 12,850 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled was 12,450 - 12,500 yuan/ton [50]. Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 283,600 yuan/ton, down 2,650 yuan/ton or 0.93%, and the position decreased by 2,185 lots to 72,249 lots. The average spot price of tin ingots in Shanghai was 284,000 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan/ton [55]. Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon decreased. The spot prices of different grades in various regions remained stable [89]. Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon increased. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon and related downstream product prices had minor changes [90]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate 2601 contract increased by 980 to 83,400 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 36,888 lots. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [76]. Group 3: Important Information Macro - level - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and ended quantitative tightening, but Powell's hawkish remarks on December's interest - rate cut prospects reduced the market's expectation of a December rate cut from 95% to 65% [2]. - The Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a consensus, with the US canceling a 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspending a 24% reciprocal tariff for another year [16][24][56]. Industry - level - Chile's state - owned mining company ENAMI obtained environmental approval for a new $1.7 - billion copper smelter [2]. - Some zinc mines in Southwest, North, and Central China have production adjustments such as maintenance and resumption of production [32]. - A large alumina enterprise in North China has two roasting furnaces under maintenance due to heavy pollution weather [9]. - Some electrolytic aluminum plants overseas and in China have production cuts [17]. - Some stainless steel mills plan to cut production to relieve the supply - demand contradiction in the fourth quarter [51]. - Indonesia closed 1,000 illegal mining sites [57]. - The production of some polysilicon plants in Southwest China will be reduced in November [69]. - China will suspend the implementation of lithium - battery and its material export control measures for one year [78]. Group 4: Logical Analysis Copper - Macroscopically, the dollar strengthened due to Powell's hawkish remarks, and the Sino - US leaders' meeting was slightly disappointing. Fundamentally, the supply of copper mines is tight, and the production of electrolytic copper in October is expected to decline. The consumption is weak, and the spot has turned to a discount [3][4]. Alumina - The supply and demand of alumina are still significantly in surplus. The market expects production cuts in the future, which drives the price to rebound slightly at a low level. However, the non - implementation of production cuts and the open import window suppress the rebound [11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macroscopically, the market's expectation of a December Fed rate cut has decreased, and the Sino - US economic and trade consensus eases the risk - aversion sentiment. Fundamentally, overseas production cuts intensify the supply - demand tension, and the domestic consumption has resilience [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Macroscopically, the Fed's hawkish remarks increase uncertainty, but the Sino - US trade negotiation is positive. Fundamentally, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the supply of the regenerative aluminum alloy industry is shrinking, and the demand is resilient, supporting the price [26]. Zinc - Domestically, the winter storage of smelters has increased, the processing fees have decreased, and some smelters may cut production in November. The consumption is expected to weaken. Overseas, the inventory is relatively low, and the LME zinc price is strong. The domestic export window is open [33]. Lead - Some lead - storage enterprises' orders have improved, but they have reduced production due to high lead prices. The supply side may increase production as the price of lead scrap has not risen significantly. The lead price may decline [39]. Nickel - The Fed's interest - rate cut and hawkish remarks have an impact. The LME nickel inventory is slowly increasing, and the supply - demand is loose. The price is supported by cost, and it will fluctuate widely [45]. Stainless Steel - The terminal demand in October is not optimistic, and it is the end of the peak season. The supply side has production cuts, the cost support is not strong, and the price has encountered resistance [51]. Tin - The Sino - US leaders' meeting result is slightly disappointing. The supply of tin mines is still tight, and the production of smelters in September decreased. The demand is slowly recovering, and the downstream procurement is cautious [57]. Industrial Silicon - The start - up rate of silicon plants in Northwest China is at a high level, and those in Southwest China will stop production at the end of the month. The demand for organic silicon and aluminum alloy is stable, and the production of polysilicon will be reduced in November. There may be inventory reduction [62]. Polysilicon - The production in Southwest China will be reduced in November. The demand is expected to be poor, but there is still resilience. The market will be in a tight - balance state in November. The old warehouse receipts' negative impact on the market is weakening [69]. Lithium Carbonate - The weekly production has decreased, and the inventory is being reduced. The fundamentals are healthy, attracting bullish funds. The price is expected to continue rising [78]. Group 5: Trading Strategies Copper - Unilateral: The medium - term upward trend continues. Adopt a strategy of buying on dips, but be cautious of short - term pullbacks when chasing high [5]. - Arbitrage: Hold cross - market positive arbitrage and arrange cross - period positive arbitrage after the domestic inventory starts to decline [6]. - Options: Wait and see [7]. Alumina - Unilateral: There is an expectation of further production cuts in November. The price will bottom out in the short term [12]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [13]. - Options: Wait and see [13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Unilateral: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate upward after the market sentiment stabilizes [19]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [20]. - Options: Wait and see [21]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Unilateral: The aluminum alloy price will follow the aluminum price to adjust due to macro - sentiment and then maintain a strong trend after stabilizing [27]. - Arbitrage: Consider a long - AD short - AL arbitrage [27]. - Options: Wait and see [27]. Zinc - Unilateral: Buy on dips. Pay attention to the export volume and the commissioning of new smelters in the North [34]. - Arbitrage: Advance the operation of buying SHFE and selling LME according to the export situation [34]. - Options: Wait and see [34]. Lead - Unilateral: Partially close profitable short positions. If the resumption and increase of production of regenerative lead smelters accelerate, the lead price may fall further [40]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [40]. - Options: Exit the position by taking profit on selling out - of - the - money call options [40]. Nickel - Unilateral: Fluctuate widely [46]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [47]. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [48]. Stainless Steel - Unilateral: Recommend short - selling on rebounds [52]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [53]. Tin - Unilateral: Fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the Sino - US trade relationship [58]. - Options: Wait and see [59]. Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Hold short - term long positions and exit near the previous high [63]. - Arbitrage: None [63]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [63]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Partially reduce long positions to take profit and buy on dips later [72]. - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts [73]. - Options: Hold long call options [74]. Lithium Carbonate - Unilateral: Buy on dips [80]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [80]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [80].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Copper - The central bank's interest rate cut and the upcoming Sino - US meeting are factors affecting the market. The shortage of copper ore supply supports the price bottom, and the psychological price ceiling of downstream buyers is rising. Although short - term price increases may suppress demand, in the long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price bottom [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is stabilizing at a low level, but the supply is abundant and the demand is weak, so the price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term. The aluminum price is strong, with a tight - balance fundamentals, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The cost of aluminum alloy is rigidly supported, and the supply - demand is in a tight - balance. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but high inventory and policy uncertainties are constraints [5]. Zinc - The macro - environment is warm, and the supply of zinc is gradually increasing, but the increase may be limited. The demand is stable, and the LME has the risk of a short squeeze. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Due to the hawkish statement on interest rate cuts, the short - term tin price may fall, but it may rise if the supply from Myanmar does not recover well [11]. Nickel - The macro - environment is improving, and the cost is supported by the firm ore price. However, the inventory accumulation restricts the price increase. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. Stainless Steel - The macro - environment is positive, but the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak and fluctuate in the short - term [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are improving, with increasing demand and tight raw material supply. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but there is pressure at the 83,000 level [16]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.16% to 87,905 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 40 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and the import volume increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.05% to 21,170 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 194.5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined price difference in Foshan decreased [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.09% to 22,290 yuan/ton, and the import loss decreased by 205.67 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.32% to 285,200 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 60% [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 160 yuan/ton to - 550 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the tin ore import decreased by 15.13% to 8714 tons, and the SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10,510 tons [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.20% to 121,900 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 226 yuan/ton [13]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel decreased by 0.62% to 116,448 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32,200 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 4.81% to 36,075 tons [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,950 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 6.55% to 41.85 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.83% to 79,150 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 320 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87,260 tons, and the demand increased by 12.28% to 116,801 tons [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new supply of natural rubber is expected to increase, but weather factors may affect the tapping progress. The demand side does not seem to be the focus of trading. Currently, the rubber price has returned to a relatively reasonable level, and considering the expected inventory accumulation in the later period, the overall upward driving force is weak [3][63]. - The cost - side supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, and the supply - demand gap of butadiene is expected to gradually widen from October to November. The profit of butadiene rubber is in a loss state, with high - level production and inventory. The annual capacity growth rate of butadiene rubber is 9%, and the inventory remains high [4][65][66]. - The strategy is to dynamically intervene in buying natural rubber and selling synthetic rubber, while paying attention to risk points such as tariff policies, device commissioning and maintenance changes, extreme weather in major producing areas, oil price fluctuations, and the macro - economy [5][67]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Rubber Market Review in October 2025 - Natural rubber: The rubber market showed a "V" - shaped trend in October. It continued to decline in the first and middle of the month, possibly due to the slightly unexpected rubber reserve release at the end of September and the expected increase in supply in October. The market rose in the later period due to the warming of macro - sentiment. As of October 29, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,625 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton (+1.6%) for the month, and the closing price of the NR main contract was 12,720 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton (+2.3%) for the month [10]. - Synthetic rubber: It fluctuated following natural rubber but was weaker than natural rubber. As of October 29, the closing price of the BR main contract was 10,795 yuan/ton, down 545 yuan/ton (-4.8%) for the month [10]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Natural Rubber: Southeast Asian New Rubber Supply May Fall Short of Expectations - Thailand: It may have entered a stable production - decline cycle. Although there is an expectation of increased production in the fourth - quarter peak season, the current new rubber supply is affected by rainy weather. The rainfall in the northeastern part of Thailand is expected to decrease seasonally, but the production there may not increase significantly. The southern part is approaching the rainfall peak, which may still affect tapping. In August 2025, Thailand's rubber production was 458,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons (-0.4%). From May to August, the production was 1.585 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24,600 tons (-1.5%) [13][14]. - Other major ANRPC members: Indonesia's production has increased this year, with 189,000 tons in August 2025, a month - on - month decrease of 8,500 tons (-4.3%), and a cumulative export of 1.141 million tons of natural rubber as of August 2025, a year - on - year increase of 86,300 tons (+8%). Vietnam is expected to have a slight production decrease, with 140,500 tons in August 2025, the same as the previous month, and a production of 455,500 tons from May to August, a year - on - year decrease of 50,000 tons (-10%) [15]. - China: Affected by Typhoon "Mujigae" in 2024, about 230,000 mu of rubber plantations in Hainan were damaged. In August 2025, China's production was 113,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons (+12%). The rainfall in Yunnan and Hainan in October was lower than that of the previous year. African rubber is rising, with Cote d'Ivoire's cumulative exports reaching 1.05 million tons as of August 2025, a year - on - year increase of 130,000 tons (+14%) [16]. 3.2.2 Natural Rubber Import: Affected by Overseas Production Increase and EUDR Delay - Import volume is seasonally increasing with the growth of overseas output. Future imports need to pay close attention to industry policies such as EUDR, China - Thailand zero - tariff policy, and zero - tariff policy with 53 African diplomatic countries. The appreciation of the RMB against the Thai baht may put pressure on imports. EUDR implementation has been postponed. In September, 595,900 tons of rubber were imported, a month - on - month increase of 75,000 tons (+14%), higher than the average of the past five years (550,000 tons). From January to September, the cumulative import was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [21][22][24]. 3.2.3 Butadiene Rubber: High Inventory - The supply - demand gap of butadiene is expected to gradually widen from November to December. The supply side includes: a certain repair of naphtha cracking ethylene profit but still in a loss state, with the weekly production rate dropping to a seasonal low due to maintenance from October to November; a 14% expected capacity growth rate of butadiene in 2025, with the production of 200,000 tons from Jilin Petrochemical and 200,000 tons from Yulong Petrochemical put into production in August - September expected to be released, and 180,000 tons from Guangxi Petrochemical planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter; although South Korea has decided to cut 25% of its naphtha cracking capacity, the import volume from South Korea has not significantly decreased, and the import volume from Europe has increased significantly. The demand side focuses on the commissioning progress of SBS and ABS. The inventory of butadiene rubber has been high this year, with Yulong Petrochemical's 150,000 - ton production capacity put into production and gradually ramping up at the beginning of the year, and a 50,000 - ton/year low - cis butadiene rubber production device of a certain petrochemical expected to start trial production in late October [37]. 3.3 Demand Side: Domestic Demand is Good, Export is Acceptable, but Trade Frictions Need Continuous Attention - Overseas demand: From January to August, EU car registrations were 7.169 million, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.2%, and US car sales were 1.91 million, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. - Direct demand: The performance of all - steel tires is good. From January to September, the domestic production of semi - steel tires was 432 million, a year - on - year decrease of 0.96%; the production of all - steel tires was 95.87 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The start - up rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was lower than that of the previous year, and the overall enterprise inventory was high. The weekly start - up rate of all - steel tires was at a medium - to - high level in the past five years, and the inventory was at a seasonal low. - Tire export: In September, the export volume of new pneumatic tires was 760,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 80,000 tons. The cumulative export from January to September was 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%, with the growth rate remaining the same as the previous month. The export of new pneumatic rubber tires for motor cars was 2.5 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.3%, with the growth rate decreasing by 0.4% compared to the previous month. The export of new pneumatic rubber tires for trucks and buses was 3.63 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.7%, with the growth rate increasing by 0.3% compared to the previous month. Continuous attention should be paid to the impact of trade frictions [43]. - Terminal market: From January to September, passenger car sales were 21.2126 million, a year - on - year increase of 13.6%, with the growth rate remaining the same as the previous month. Commercial vehicle sales were 3.1118 million, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%, with the growth rate increasing by 1.4% compared to the previous month. The sales of new - energy vehicles in China continued to grow, especially the sales of pure - electric heavy - duty trucks increased rapidly. From January to September 2025, the sales of new - energy heavy - duty trucks were 135,300, a year - on - year increase of 179%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of highway freight turnover was 4.1%, with the growth rate increasing by 0.2% compared to the previous month [44]. 3.4 Inventory: Synthetic Rubber Inventory is High, and Natural Rubber May Have an Inventory Accumulation Expectation - Natural rubber: As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.039 million tons, a decrease of about 49,000 tons from the end of the previous month. The dark - colored rubber inventory was 639,000 tons, a decrease of about 22,000 tons, and the light - colored rubber inventory was 400,000 tons, a decrease of about 27,000 tons. The 20 - number rubber futures inventory was 43,800 tons, an increase of about 9,000 tons from the end of the previous month. The Shanghai rubber futures inventory was 123,300 tons, a decrease of about 26,000 tons from the end of the previous month, reaching a seasonal low [56]. - Synthetic rubber: The butadiene rubber enterprise inventory increased to 28,600 tons, and the trader inventory decreased to 4,500 tons. The total was still at a relatively high seasonal level. The BR futures inventory was 8,900 tons, a decrease of 300 tons for the month. The total inventory of styrene - butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was about 24,000 tons, at a seasonal medium level [56][57]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Natural rubber: The supply side has an unchanged expectation of increased production, but the tapping progress may be affected by rainy weather in domestic and overseas producing areas. The Southeast Asian producing areas, mainly Thailand, may have a supply increase falling short of expectations. The import is seasonally recovering, but there may be some pressure due to the postponed implementation of EUDR and the appreciation of the RMB against the Thai baht. The demand side shows good domestic demand, with relatively good performance of heavy - duty trucks and all - steel tires, but tire exports face challenges due to continuous international trade frictions. Overall, although there is an expectation of increased new rubber supply, factors such as weather may still affect the supply progress. The demand side does not seem to be the focus of trading. Currently, the rubber price has returned to a relatively reasonable level, and considering the expected inventory accumulation in the later period, the upward driving force is weak [63]. - Synthetic rubber: The cost - side supply of butadiene is abundant, and the supply - demand gap from October to November is expected to gradually widen, which may or may not affect the price of natural rubber. Butadiene rubber has a loss in profit, high - level production, and high inventory, with a 9% annual capacity growth rate and continuously high inventory [4][65][66].

北京时间10月29日晚间，贵州茅台发布了2025年Q3业绩，在"禁酒令"+需求持续疲软的大环境下最终仍然实现了正增长，核心要点如下： 1、整体业绩实现正增长：3Q25茅台共实现营收398.1亿元，同比增长0.3%，低于市场预期（市场预期为425亿元）。 核心在于市场预期主要基于上个季度的增速进行线性外推，而低估了酒企释放渠道压力的决心。 其实三季度业绩持续降速从二季度合同负债大幅下滑（同比下降45%）就已经可以推测，因此海豚君并没有过于意外，所以市场预期整体上参考意义并不 大。3Q25茅台实现归母净利润192.2亿元，同比增长0.6%，略快于营收端的增长。 2、茅台酒：业绩的压舱石。3Q25茅台酒实现营收349亿元，同比增长7.1%，趋势上环比前两个季度有所下滑。 结合调研信息，分消费场景来看，虽然宴席场景下滑幅度不明显，但送礼场景下滑幅度较大，这背后 反应 的实际上还是企业的商务需求仍然偏弱。 3、系列酒下滑严重。3Q25系列酒实现营收41亿元，同比下降33.7%，在价格全面倒挂+渠道高库存+需求萎靡的情况下，海豚君推测为了减轻渠道负担， 公司三季度基本放弃了通过向经销商压货实现增长。 4、直营占比大幅下降 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [2]. Core Insights - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasized consumption as a key driver for economic growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, indicating a shift in policy focus from supply-driven to a balanced supply-demand interaction [3][14]. - Future consumption policies are expected to be more targeted and sustainable, with potential measures including the issuance of consumption vouchers and subsidies for quality upgrades in the food and beverage sector [3][14]. - The report highlights a significant transformation in consumer behavior towards rational consumption, leading to the rise of new retail channels such as instant retail and membership supermarkets, which are reshaping the sales landscape of the food and beverage industry [4][15]. - Companies that can adapt to these new channels and consumer trends are expected to emerge as industry leaders, with specific recommendations for companies like Salted Fish and Ganyuan Foods in the new consumption track, and Kweichow Moutai in the cyclical sector [4][15]. Market Performance - Last week, the sub-sectors of the food and beverage industry showed varying performance, with soft drinks up by 2.05%, meat products by 2.03%, and other alcoholic beverages by 1.75%, while beer and yellow wine saw declines of -1.73% and -3.75% respectively [16][20]. - The report also notes the performance of key companies within the alcoholic beverage sector, with *ST Yedao leading with a 9.05% increase, while others like Shanxi Fenjiu and Zhujiang Beer experienced declines [20][24]. Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry comprises 126 companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 46,112.25 billion [9]. - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the industry stands at 21.31, indicating a moderate valuation level [9]. Key Company Tracking - Recent announcements include significant shareholding changes and asset restructuring activities among companies like Huangtai Liquor and Lihai Foods, indicating ongoing strategic adjustments within the industry [31][32]. - Notable performance was reported by Yangyuan Beverage, which achieved a revenue of approximately 1.44 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.88% [34]. Future Events - Upcoming significant events in the industry include various earnings presentations and shareholder meetings for companies such as Water Well and Yili, scheduled for late October and early November [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply-side production schedule is increasing, and it is near the historical average level. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8855 - 9075 [3][6]. - For polysilicon, the supply-side production schedule will increase in the short term and is expected to回调 in the medium term. The demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components will decrease in the short term and is expected to recover in the medium term. Overall, the demand shows a continuous recovery trend, and the cost support is stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 53655 - 55345 [7][8]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 101,000 tons, a 2.02% increase from the previous week. The demand was 98,000 tons, with the polysilicon inventory at 254,000 tons, silicon wafers and battery cells in a loss state, and components profitable. The organic silicon inventory was 55,100 tons, with a production profit of -454 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 70.05%, which was flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 75,300 tons, and the import loss was 276 yuan/ton. The cost support in the dry season has increased [6]. - **Basis**: On October 27, the spot price of non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 335 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 559,000 tons, a 0.53% decrease from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory was 167,700 tons, a 0.17% decrease. The main port inventory was 123,000 tons, a 2.50% increase [6][15]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 29,500 tons, a 4.83% decrease from the previous week. The expected production in October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month. The silicon wafer production was 14.73GW, a 2.64% increase from the previous week, but currently in a loss state. The battery cell production was in a loss state, and the component production was profitable. The average cost of N-type polysilicon was 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 15,450 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On October 27, the price of N-type dense material was 51,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was -1520 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 258,000 tons, a 1.97% increase from the previous week, at a historical high [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position is decreasing [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of various contracts showed an upward trend, with increases ranging from 0.34% to 0.84%. Spot prices of different types of silicon remained unchanged. The weekly social inventory decreased by 0.53%, and the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.18%. The main port inventory increased by 2.50%. The weekly sample enterprise production increased by 3.36%, and the production and operating rates in different regions showed different changes [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures prices of various contracts increased, with increases ranging from 3.09% to 5.54%. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends. The monthly supply of polysilicon in China decreased by 1.29%, the export volume decreased by 30.00%, the consumption volume increased by 6.62%, and the import volume increased by 30.00%. The component production was profitable, and the domestic and European inventories decreased [17]. 3.3 Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The basis of industrial silicon and the spread between 421 and 553 silicon showed different trends over time [19][20]. - The price and basis of polysilicon also showed different trends over time [22][23]. 3.4 Inventory - The inventory of industrial silicon in different regions and at ports showed different trends over time [25][26]. - The polysilicon inventory also showed different trends over time [17]. 3.5 Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The weekly production of industrial silicon sample enterprises in different regions and the overall production showed different trends over time [29][30]. - The monthly production of industrial silicon by specification also showed different trends over time [31]. 3.6 Cost - Sample Region Trends - The cost and profit of 421 silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang's oxygenated 553 silicon showed different trends over time [36][37]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance Sheets 3.7.1 Industrial Silicon - The weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon showed different trends over time [38][39]. - The monthly supply - demand balance also showed different trends over time, with different values for actual consumption, export, import, and other items [41][42]. 3.7.2 Polysilicon - The monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon showed different trends over time, with different values for consumption, export, import, and supply [67][68]. 3.8 Downstream Market Trends 3.8.1 Organic Silicon - The production capacity utilization rate, profit, cost, and production of DMC in organic silicon showed different trends over time [44][45]. - The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 also showed different trends over time [46][47]. - The import, export, and inventory of DMC also showed different trends over time [51][52]. 3.8.2 Aluminum Alloy - The waste aluminum recycling volume, social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, and import - export situation of Chinese unforged aluminum alloy showed different trends over time [54][55]. - The production, inventory, and operating rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloy ingots also showed different trends over time [57][58]. - The production and sales of automobiles and the export of aluminum alloy wheels also showed different trends over time [59][60]. 3.8.3 Polysilicon - The cost, price, inventory, production, and demand of polysilicon showed different trends over time [64][65]. - The price, production, inventory, and demand of silicon wafers also showed different trends over time [70][71]. - The price, production, inventory, and export of battery cells showed different trends over time [73][74]. - The price, production, inventory, and export of photovoltaic components also showed different trends over time [76][77]. - The prices and import - export volumes of photovoltaic accessories such as photovoltaic coatings, photovoltaic glass, high - purity quartz sand, and soldering tapes showed different trends over time [79][80].