Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The report provides comprehensive analysis and forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc., and gives corresponding investment suggestions based on market trends and fundamentals [2][8][9] Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - PX: High-level shock market, with cost support from rising crude oil prices and tight supply-demand situation. It's recommended to hold long PX and short BZ. There is a supply contraction expectation in the supply side, and the demand side has a certain gap under the high start - up mode of polyester. Do not chase high in the short term, and go long on dips [4][8] - PTA: High-level shock market, with cost support from PX. Hold long PX and short PTA in the 05 contract, and conduct 5 - 9 positive spreads. Be vigilant about the negative feedback of the industrial chain due to the early holiday of terminals from late December to early January [9] - MEG: Short - term support due to the postponement of the restart plan of Shenghong Refining and Chemical and the unplanned load reduction of multiple units. The price has limited downside space at 3600 yuan/ton. In the medium term, it is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand [9] Rubber - The rubber market is in a shock operation. As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The short - term price policy of most manufacturers remains stable, and the transaction has flexibility [11][12] Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market is in a range operation. As of December 10, 2025, the domestic inventory of butadiene rubber decreased, and the inventory of butadiene in East China ports also decreased. The market is in a situation of cautious price increase by suppliers and pressure on prices from downstream procurement [14][15][17] Asphalt - The asphalt market has a phased small - scale rebound due to geopolitical fluctuations. The weekly output increased this week, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased [18][28] LLDPE - The LLDPE market shows a unilateral decline, and the basis weakens again. The futures market is under pressure, the upstream sells at a reduced price, and the demand is weak. The supply in the first quarter of 2026 may increase [29][30] PP - The PP market continues to be weak. The cost support is limited, the supply - demand game of existing inventory intensifies, the demand is weak, and the profit of PDH is at a low level. Pay attention to the marginal changes of PDH devices [31][32] Caustic Soda - It is not advisable to chase short in the caustic soda market. The market has a pattern of high output and high inventory, the demand is weak, the supply pressure is large, and the cost has certain support, but the rebound is difficult [34][36] Pulp - The pulp market is in a shock - strengthening trend. The futures market trading volume increased, and the spot market has differentiation. The supply - demand pattern of the pulp and paper system is relatively loose, and it is recommended to pay attention to port inventory changes and futures market capital trends [39][41][43] Glass - The price of glass original sheets is stable. The floating glass price has minor fluctuations, the trading atmosphere in most regions is average, the demand is weak, and the supply inventory is high. Some production lines have a plan to stop production [46][47] Methanol - The methanol market is under pressure. The port inventory decreased significantly this week, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December. In the medium term, the high supply pressure of the 01 contract is the main contradiction, and the price upside space is limited [50][52] Urea - The urea market is in a shock operation. The enterprise inventory decreased this week, and the demand side has a phased improvement. The price has support from the decrease of explicit inventory, but there is policy pressure above, and the price is expected to be in a shock pattern [54][55][57] Styrene - The styrene market is in a short - term shock. The pure benzene market is in the range of 5300 - 5700 yuan/ton in the short term. The downstream inventory pressure of styrene is high, and the supply pressure is not large, and the port inventory is slightly reduced [58][59] Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash changes little. The market trend is stable, the output of enterprises is high, the new orders received are average, and the downstream demand is not so strong [62] LPG, Propylene - LPG: Wide - range shock under the disturbance of the cost side. Pay attention to the changes in CP prices and the start - up rate of related devices [65][70][71] - Propylene: There is an expectation of supply increase, and the upward driving force is limited. The start - up rate of PDH increased compared with the previous week [66] PVC - The PVC market is in a low - level shock. The price is at a historical low, and some devices have a reduction expectation due to large losses. However, in the short term, it still faces the pattern of high start - up and weak demand [74][75] Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil: Continued downward trend, with the center of the disk moving down [77] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Weakened at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market rebounded slightly [77] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The PA alliance's unexpected performance drives the sentiment to improve. The short - term capital sentiment is optimistic, and the medium - term is a shock market. It is recommended to short the 2604 contract on rallies [79][90] Short Fiber, Bottle Chip - Both short fiber and bottle chip markets face medium - term pressure. It is recommended to short the processing fee on rallies. The futures prices of short fiber and bottle chip are weak, and the spot prices are adjusted down [92][93] Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see in the offset printing paper market. The prices in Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable, the industry start - up level is high, and the market demand is light [95][96][98] Pure Benzene - The pure benzene market is in a short - term shock. The port inventory increased, and the current reality pressure is large. There is an expectation of supply contraction after January 2026, and the demand may improve [100][101]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月11日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡偏弱，伴随盘面走低，聚酯工厂后点价增多，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差略走强，少量聚 酯工厂补货。12月中主港货在01贴水25附近商谈成交，12月下主港在01-20附近成交，个别货源价格略低，价格商谈区间在 4595~4625。今日主流现货基差在01-25。中性 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 6、预期：近期PTA供需格局变动不大，部分聚酯工厂阶段性补货，现货基差区间波动，期货盘面跟随成本端震荡运行，关注油 价走势及下游需求情况。 2、基差：现货4612，01合约基差-4，盘面升水 中性 3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the decline of glass prices is expected to slow down, and attention should be paid to the upper resistance level of 1030 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash continues to decline, breaking through the previous low - level support, and subsequent attention should be paid to the integer support level of 1000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the forward policy expectations have positive signals, and the "Three Major Projects" fund allocation is accelerating, which is expected to support the demand for infrastructure glass in Q1 2026 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the soda ash main contract is 1094 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan; the closing price of the glass main contract is 964 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The soda ash - glass price difference is 130 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. The positions of the soda ash and glass main contracts decreased by 79,430 hands and 54,739 hands respectively. The net positions of the top 20 soda ash decreased by 3,031, while that of glass increased by 5,254. The exchange warehouse receipts of soda ash decreased by 724 tons, and those of glass increased by 303 tons. The basis of soda ash increased by 31 yuan/ton, and that of glass increased by 16 yuan/ton. The spread between the January and May glass contracts decreased by 6, and that of soda ash decreased by 3 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of North China heavy - soda ash and Central China heavy - soda ash remained unchanged at 1120 yuan/ton and 1300 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of East China light - soda ash and Central China light - soda ash were stable at 1400 yuan/ton and 1165 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Shahe glass sheets decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 968 yuan/ton, and the price of Central China glass sheets remained at 1110 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of soda ash plants increased by 0.66 percentage points to 80.74%, and the weekly operating rate of float glass enterprises decreased by 0.89 percentage points to 73.63%. The weekly in - production capacity of glass decreased by 0.28 million tons/year to 15.44 million tons/year, and the number of in - production glass production lines decreased by 2 to 218. The weekly inventory of soda ash enterprises decreased by 3.61 million tons to 150.25 million tons, and the weekly inventory of glass enterprises decreased by 2.92 million heavy boxes to 59.442 million heavy boxes [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of newly - started real estate area was 49,061.39 million square meters, an increase of 3,662.39 million square meters, and the cumulative value of real - estate completion area was 34,861 million square meters, an increase of 3,732 million square meters [2] 3.5 Industry News - Some soda ash plants had production adjustments, such as Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical reducing production, Henan Zhongyuan Chemical maintaining stable production, Hubei Shuanghuan keeping stable output, Henan Haohua Junhua starting operation, Tangshan Sanyou reducing production to 70% load, Shandong Haitian Biological Chemical resuming production, Shandong Haihua reducing load, Zhongyan Anhui Hongsifang resuming load, Henan Jinshan reducing production for maintenance, and Chongqing Xiangyu Yanhua resuming production. For glass, the supply contraction trend will be more obvious next week, and the average daily melting volume in Q1 2026 is expected to drop to around 155,000 tons. The regional supply shows a pattern of "local contraction, overall looseness" [2] 3.6 View Summary - The demand side is the core factor suppressing the current market. In the short - term, the decline in construction site start - up rates in the north, limited demand pull from the automotive industry and the export market, and weak terminal receiving willingness have a negative impact on the market. However, forward policy expectations are positive, and the "Three Major Projects" are expected to support infrastructure glass demand in Q1 2026 [2] 3.7 Prompt Attention - This week, the operating rate of soda ash plants declined. Although some plants such as Zhongyan Kunshan increased production and some completed maintenance, many other plants continued maintenance or reduced load. There is no large - scale maintenance plan for subsequent soda ash plants for now, and the supply is expected to increase next week. The demand from the glass industry, the largest downstream of soda ash, has decreased. If the cold - repair of glass production lines is implemented, the demand for heavy - soda ash will further decrease. Although the inventory of glass manufacturers has decreased to a low level, the short - term driving effect on soda ash demand is limited and there are downward risks [2]

党的二十届四中全会提出："坚持扩大内需这个战略基点，坚持惠民生和促消费、投资于物和投资于人 紧密结合，以新需求引领新供给，以新供给创造新需求，促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动，增强 国内大循环内生动力和可靠性。" 当前，内需成为拉动我国经济增长的主动力和稳定锚。"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基 础、全面发力的关键时期。要建设强大国内市场，大力提振消费，扩大有效投资，全方位扩大国内需 求，更好发挥超大规模市场优势，推动高质量发展取得新的更大成效。 ——编 者 协同推进促消费与惠民生 随着编钟声悠扬响起，身着霓裳的演员踏着节奏，脚踩夜色缓缓升空，衣袂翩跹、动作优美。演员在空 中轻盈地旋转、腾跃，每一个动作都精准把控着力度与美感。拂袖间，花瓣如雪花般纷纷扬扬飘落。古 建飞檐与漫天花雨相映成趣。 依托丰富的历史文化资源，近年来，洛阳不断推出消费新业态，打造消费新场景，促进文化与经济的深 度融合。今年国庆中秋假期，洛阳累计接待游客879.45万人次，旅游总收入达75.63亿元。 【解读】 "十四五"时期，我国消费主引擎和稳定器作用增强，强大国内市场优势凸显。消费市场规模稳居全球第 二，服务消费保持较快增长 ...

消息面 机构观点 新世纪期货： 油价继续下滑，成本支撑乏力，业内心态偏谨慎，聚酯瓶片市场或维持疲态。 银河期货： 近期瓶片开工率稳定，暂无饮料大厂招标，瓶片局部货源偏紧，加工费走强。供应方面，山东富海30万吨聚酯瓶片新装置有投产预期，华润珠海 两套各30万吨聚酯瓶片装置预计12月下旬附近重启，下游采购节奏偏缓，瓶片供需面相对宽松，加工费缺乏继续上行的驱动。关注新装置的投产 节奏。 昨日聚酯瓶片市场成交气氛尚可。12-2月订单多成交在5680-5740元/吨出厂不等，略低5600-5640元/吨出厂不等，少量略高5760-5780元/吨出厂附 近，品牌不同价格略有差异。 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为72.05%，环比持平；聚酯瓶片生产成本5321元，环比+44元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-164元/吨，环比+2.6元/ 吨。 12月5日当周，聚酯瓶片库存可用天数录得16.13天，较上一周减少0.36天，减少幅度达2.18%；最近一个月，聚酯瓶片库存可用天数累计增加0.32 天，增加幅度为2.02%。 ...

甲醇产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 甲醇价格及价差 | 品种 | 12月9日 | 12月8日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2601 收盘价 | 2066 | 2089 | -23 | -1.10% | | | MA2605 收盘价 | 2143 | 2177 | -34 | -1.56% | | | MA15价差 | -77 | -88 | 11 | -12.50% | | | 太仓基差 | 8 | -3 | 11 | -366.67% | | | MTO05盘面 | -149 | -161 | 12 | -7.45% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 1980 | 1995 | -15 | -0.75% | TI./048 | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2108 | 2100 | 8 | 0.36% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2070 | 2070 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 90 | 75 | 15 | 20.00% | ...

Market Overview - On December 9, the styrene market in East China experienced slight fluctuations, with limited port arrivals leading to a forecasted decline in port inventory. The basis rose and then fell, while downstream factory profits were compressed, resulting in a strong resistance to high prices and a decline in trading atmosphere. Styrene industry profits remained acceptable, and Lianyungang Petrochemical resumed production ahead of schedule [1][2]. Profit Analysis - As of December 9, the profit for non-integrated styrene units was approximately 154 yuan per ton [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Styrene supply: As of December 4, the overall production of styrene was 342,400 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons, with an operating rate of 68.85%, up by 1.56% [2]. - Styrene inventory: As of December 8, the total port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 146,800 tons, a decrease of 13,800 tons from the previous period; the commodity inventory was 87,800 tons, down by 8,600 tons [2]. - Downstream utilization rates: As of December 4, the EPS capacity utilization rate was 56.36%, up by 1.61%; the PS capacity utilization rate was 59.0%, up by 1.4%; the ABS capacity utilization rate was 68.3%, down by 2.9% [2]. Market Outlook - There is an expectation of increased planned and unplanned maintenance for styrene units. However, with profits continuing to recover, the overall operating rate may see a slight increase. The resumption of production by Guoen Ruihua may maintain overall supply pressure. Some downstream operations are affected by cold weather, leading to reduced operating loads, compounded by high inventory and profit pressures, limiting demand support. Styrene exports are expected in December, and port inventory may continue to decrease. Overall, the supply-demand structure for styrene is tight, but due to weak cost support and seasonal demand decline, the upward potential for styrene prices is limited. Future attention should be on unit changes and actual export transactions. In the short term, the spot market is characterized by a clear tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with the market likely influenced by oil prices and macroeconomic disturbances. The strategy suggests a bearish outlook for the short-term EB01 [3].

中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-10 美联储12月利率决议临近，关注预期差 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 有⾊观点：美联储12⽉利率决议临近，关注预期差 交易逻辑：11月欧美制造业PMI普遍回落且美国11月ADP就业数据偏弱，投 资对美联储12月降息预期升温，整体上看，宏观面预期偏正面。原料端延 续偏紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传导，供应端收缩风险仍然存在。终端略偏 弱，11月初汽车销售增速同比转降，11-12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026年 1-2月排产预计改善，基本金属现实供需略改善，预期偏紧。整体来看， 中短期，宏观面预期正面+供应扰动担忧推高价格，但美联储12月利率决 议公布前资金出现获利回吐，可谨慎关注铜铝锡低吸做多机会；长期，国 内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有 趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：美联储议息会议将近，铜价⾼位震荡。 氧化铝观点：过剩状态未有明显改善，氧化铝价继续承压。 铝观点：宏观预期反复，铝价震荡回落。 铝合⾦观点：仓单延续回升，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 锌观点：社会库存下降，锌价⾼位震荡。 铅观点：社会库存仍处低位，铅价随有⾊ ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment in 2025 has been impacted by the tense US-China relations and trade conflicts, leading to a significant decline in textile and apparel export values [2] - Domestic consumption of textiles and apparel showed resilience with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.5% from January to October 2025, supported by government efforts to boost domestic consumption [2][20] - The outlook for 2026 is optimistic as the US and China reached a consensus on their relationship, and the Federal Reserve is expected to enter a rate-cutting cycle, which may enhance liquidity and support textile exports [2][21] Group 2: PX and PTA Market Dynamics - In 2026, both domestic PX production and demand are expected to increase, while imports may decline due to maintenance of old overseas facilities and new PTA production in India, leading to a supply-demand balance [2][66] - PTA production is projected to grow significantly in 2026 despite no new installations, as existing capacity can meet demand, although exports may decline due to new overseas production [3][79] - The processing fee for PTA is expected to gradually increase, especially in the second half of 2026, as new PX capacities come online [5][72] Group 3: MEG Market Insights - The MEG market in 2026 will see significant new installations, primarily in the second half of the year, leading to increased domestic pressure while imports may slightly decrease [6][7] - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to experience inventory accumulation, while the second quarter will see maintenance activities, and the third quarter will likely witness a consumption peak [6] Group 4: Polyester Production and Demand - Polyester production capacity in China reached 89.84 million tons by December 2025, with a significant increase in production expected in 2026, albeit at a slightly lower growth rate than in 2025 [25][30] - The overall polyester production from January to October 2025 was 65.97 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.54% [32][41] - The export of polyester products saw a substantial increase of 15.2% year-on-year, with significant contributions from bottle chips and short fibers [41] Group 5: Price Trends and Market Strategy - PX prices are expected to fluctuate between $220 and $300 per ton in early 2026, with a potential drop to $200-$250 per ton in the second half as new capacities come online [5][66] - PTA processing fees are anticipated to range from 250 to 300 RMB per ton, with opportunities to buy on dips below 250 RMB per ton [5] - The overall market sentiment indicates a cautious approach with a focus on inventory management and strategic positioning in response to market fluctuations [5][72]

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年12月9日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 314000 | 314800 | -800 | -0.25% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 50 | 50 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 314500 | 315300 | -800 | -0.25% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | 70.00 | 70.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | मोरिस | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -15329.05 | -16618.50 | 1289.45 | 7.76% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 7.9 ...