Group 1 - Domestic natural rubber price is 15,950 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton from the previous day; Thai 20 mixed rubber price is 15,150 CNY/ton, also down 50 CNY/ton [4][31] - Thai rubber water price reported at 57.7 THB/kg, up 0.1 THB/kg from the previous day; cup rubber price remains stable at 53.0 THB/kg [5][32] - As of January 25, 2026, Qingdao's total inventory of natural rubber is 584,500 tons, a decrease of 0.04 million tons, or 0.07% [5][32] Group 2 - The global rubber market is expected to transition from dynamic pricing based on supply-demand balance to static pricing based on inventory levels as the Northern Hemisphere enters the low production season [5][32] - Despite a projected moderate growth in global tire and rubber product demand by 2026, growth will take time and may be limited by ongoing global trade barriers [5][32] - The rebound in rubber prices is not expected to exceed the levels seen in late July 2025 before the Lunar New Year in 2026 [5][32] Group 3 - PX industry load in China decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 89.0%, while Asia's load increased by 0.4 percentage points to 81.0%, indicating a stable supply [6][33] - The PX supply-demand balance is expected to shift to a loose state in the first quarter due to numerous maintenance plans in downstream PTA facilities [6][33] - The price of PX is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a support range of 7,200-7,300 CNY [6][33] Group 4 - PTA industry load decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 76.6%, indicating a low level compared to historical data, with expected supply tightening due to maintenance plans [8][35] - The overall demand for PTA is weak, with a decline in new orders and a decrease in factory operating rates in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region [8][35] - PTA price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a support range of 5,200-5,300 CNY [8][35] Group 5 - The EG industry load decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 73.7%, with domestic supply remaining ample despite potential import reductions from North America and the Middle East [10][37] - The price of EG is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with a support range of 3,900-3,950 CNY [10][37] Group 6 - The PR industry load decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 66.4%, with ongoing maintenance expected to support processing fees [12][42] - The demand for PR is weak due to the traditional off-season for beverage consumption, limiting production recovery [12][42] - PR price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a support range of 6,100-6,200 CNY [12][42] Group 7 - The glass industry shows weak supply and demand, with inventory increasing by 10,000 tons to 266,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 22.7% [18][45] - The glass production rate remains stable, but downstream purchasing activity is generally weak [18][45] - Glass prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a reference range of 1,060-1,100 CNY [18][46]

Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating and Core View - The overall view of the non-ferrous metals industry is that the breakdown of the US dollar index provides a boost to base metals. In the short and medium term, high inventories put pressure on prices, but the logic of a weak US dollar and supply disruption concerns remains. In the long term, there are expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to lead to tighter supply - demand conditions. The report suggests paying attention to opportunities for low - absorption and long - position in copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel. [1] Group 2: Analysis of Each Metal Copper - **View**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices fluctuate at a high level, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish. [2][6] - **Logic**: In 2026, the Fed may continue to be loose, providing support to copper prices. The supply of copper ore is tightening, and the processing fees for long - term contracts in 2026 are at a record low, strengthening the expectation of supply contraction in refined copper. Although terminal demand is weak during the off - season and inventory is accumulating, the future supply - demand is expected to be tighter. [6] Alumina - **View**: The fundamentals are weak, and alumina prices are under pressure and fluctuate, with a medium - term outlook of oscillation. [2][7] - **Logic**: High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply contraction is insufficient. China is still in a strong inventory - building trend. The prices of raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda are weak, and the cost support is limited. However, as the valuation enters a low - level range, price fluctuations may increase. [7] Aluminum - **View**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices fluctuate at a high level, with a short - term outlook of being volatile and bullish, and a medium - term outlook of the price center rising. [2][9] - **Logic**: The macro - environment is positive, with expectations of US interest rate cuts and the implementation of China's "Two New" policies. The domestic production capacity and operating rate are high, but there are supply constraints overseas. High aluminum prices suppress demand in the short term, but overall, the short - term supply - demand is expected to be tight. [10] Aluminum Alloy - **View**: Cost support continues, and the market fluctuates at a high level, with a short - and medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish. [2][11] - **Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing strong cost support. The weekly operating rate has increased, but there may be supply constraints from policies. Demand is mainly for rigid needs in the short term, and the "old - for - new" policy for cars is expected to support demand in the medium term. [11] Zinc - **View**: The sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector has improved, and zinc prices have stabilized and rebounded, with an overall outlook of oscillation. [2][12] - **Logic**: Although US economic data has pushed up the US dollar, the expectation of a weak US dollar remains. Zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and refinery profits are declining. Domestic consumption is in the off - season, but zinc exports are expected to continue, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has room to decline. In the long term, zinc supply is expected to increase while demand growth is limited. [13] Lead - **View**: Social inventory is accumulating, but the sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector is good, and lead prices fluctuate, with an outlook of oscillation. [2][17] - **Logic**: The spot premium has decreased, and the production of lead ingots has increased slightly. The demand for electric bicycles is weak, but the demand for automotive batteries is improving. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises is still at a relatively high level compared to previous years. [17] Nickel - **View**: Policy expectations compete with the weak reality, and nickel prices fluctuate, with an outlook of being volatile and bullish. [2][18] - **Logic**: The supply of nickel is under pressure, and demand is in the traditional off - season, with an overall oversupply in the fundamentals. Indonesia's potential policy changes regarding nickel ore pricing and quotas have adjusted market expectations, and continuous follow - up is needed. [19] Stainless Steel - **View**: Nickel - iron prices are firm, and the stainless - steel market fluctuates, with an outlook of being volatile and bullish. [2][20] - **Logic**: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the recovery of nickel - iron prices. The production in December decreased, and the production schedule in January may increase slightly. Terminal demand is cautious, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation in the off - season. [21] Tin - **View**: Supply - demand tension continues, and tin prices are bullish, with an outlook of being volatile and bullish. [2][21] - **Logic**: Supply issues are the key factors. Although the supply situation in Wa State may improve, short - term supply in Indonesia is restricted, and the landslide in Congo (Kinshasa) has increased supply concerns. On the demand side, the global economy is expected to improve, and the demand for tin in semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing. [22] Group 3: Market Index Monitoring - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2503.03, up 1.13%; the commodity 20 index is 2879.55, up 1.44%; the industrial product index is 2369.84, up 0.40%. [148] - **Non - ferrous Metal Index**: On January 26, 2026, the non - ferrous metal index is 2830.27, with a daily increase of 0.07%, a 5 - day increase of 1.31%, a 1 - month increase of 7.62%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.37%. [150]

伯克希尔・哈撒韦公司董事长沃伦・巴菲特（Warren Buffett）是白银市场的长期研究者。1997年至1998 年，当白银价格徘徊在每盎司5美元左右时，该公司对白银进行了巨额投资。 伯克希尔彼时购入1.297亿盎司白银，虽在十年内清仓离场并赚取了未披露金额的利润，但按当前每盎 司100美元的白银价格计算，这批持仓如今的价值约为130亿美元。白银价格在过去一年中翻了三倍， 2026年迄今涨幅已超过50%。 早在1997年公司建仓白银前，巴菲特关注白银市场已有数十年。 "我买得很早，卖得也很早。除此之外，我做的每一步都堪称完美。"巴菲特在2006年伯克希尔年度股东 大会上表示，"我曾一度是白银之王，这笔投资确实赚了些钱。但我们并不擅长判断，当市场进入投机 阶段后，一轮投机热潮能走多远。" 此次白银投资，是巴菲特多次精准布局却过早止盈的案例之一。他在2024年至2025年减持了伯克希尔持 有的大部分苹果股票，又在2020年至2021年卖出了一批银行股，而这些股票的当前价格均高于彼时卖出 价。 伯克希尔在1998年的新闻稿中表示："近年来，公开报告显示，由于白银的实际需求超过矿产量和回收 量，白银库存出现大幅下降 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the Shanghai zinc futures price fluctuated at a high level, with the macro - focus on the tariff disputes between Europe, America, and Canada over Greenland. The domestic GDP in 2025 met the 5% growth target, with investment and consumption growth slowing in December. The equity market's high enthusiasm drove the commodity market [3][10]. - Fundamentally, the output of Kipushi zinc mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo increased slightly, while that of Antamina mine decreased. Due to the unstable situation in Iran, the overall overseas zinc ore supply might be lower than expected, and the zinc ore processing fee could not improve significantly, strengthening the support for zinc prices. However, high zinc prices and strong by - product prices repaired smelter profits, leading to increased refined zinc supply and supply pressure [3][10]. - On the demand side, the environmental protection restrictions in Tianjin and Hebei were lifted, and the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises rebounded. But terminal orders were still weak, and many enterprises planned to have an early Spring Festival holiday. The operating rate of some alloy and hardware factories decreased, and the recovery of the zinc oxide operating rate was limited [3][10]. - Overall, the Shanghai zinc market faced a game between long and short factors. The weak pattern of increased supply and weak consumption suppressed zinc prices, but the cost - side support was strengthened. In the short term, the Shanghai zinc price would mainly fluctuate around the macro - level, and it was expected to maintain a high - level consolidation trend. This week, attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and tariff disturbances [3][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | 16th Jan | 23rd Jan | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 24,750 | 24,585 | - 165 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 3207.5 | 3269 | 61.5 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 7.72 | 7.52 | - 0.20 | - | | SHFE Inventory | 76,311 | 73,151 | - 3160 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 106,525 | 111,500 | 4975 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 11.92 | 11.88 | 0.04 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | 50 | 40 | - 10 | Yuan/ton | [4] 3.2 Market Review - The Shanghai zinc futures price first declined and then rebounded. Affected by Trump's plan to impose tariffs on 8 European countries, market risk - aversion increased, and non - ferrous metals were under pressure. After the tariff disturbance eased, the market sentiment recovered, and the zinc price rebounded. The weekly decline was 0.67%. The LME zinc price rebounded, with a weekly increase of 1.87% [5]. - In the spot market, downstream procurement became more cautious as the price rose, and the spot premium first increased and then decreased. As of January 23rd, the LME zinc inventory increased by 4975 tons to 111,500 tons, the SHFE inventory decreased by 3160 tons to 73,151 tons. As of January 22nd, the social inventory was 11.88 million tons [6]. - Macroscopically, the US GDP in Q3 2025 grew at an annualized rate of 4.4%, the core PCE price index in November met expectations, and the number of initial jobless claims last week was lower than expected. Trump reached an agreement framework on Greenland with the NATO Secretary - General, but also made a series of tariff threats. The EU held an emergency summit to discuss counter - measures. In China, the GDP in 2025 met the 5% target, but investment and consumption growth slowed in December [7][8][9] 3.3 Industry News - In February 2026, the average domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 1400 yuan/metal ton, unchanged from the previous month [12]. - Korea Zinc plans to invest $7.4 billion to expand and renovate the Nyrstar smelter in the US, and it will take 6 - 7 years to process about 600,000 tons of waste containing various metals. The project will start this year and be commercially operational in 2029 [12]. - Teck's zinc concentrate output in 2025 was 565,000 metric tons, and the zinc ingot output of Trail smelter was 229,900 tons. However, the 2026 zinc concentrate output guidance of Antamina mine was lowered [13]. - Variscan is promoting the Novales - Udías zinc project. Pan American Silver's zinc and lead production is expected to increase in 2026 [13]. - From January to November 2025, the global refined zinc market had a supply surplus of 74,000 tons, more than twice that of the same period in 2024 [13]. - In December 2025, the imported zinc concentrate was 462,500 tons, a 10.87% month - on - month decrease and a 1.15% year - on - year increase. The imported refined zinc was 8700 tons, a 51.94% month - on - month decrease. The exported galvanized sheet was 1.3891 million tons, a 16.87% month - on - month increase and a 34.82% year - on - year increase [14]. - The Gediktepe sulfide ore expansion project of ACG Metals is expected to start producing copper and zinc in mid - 2026 [14]. - Kipushi mine produced a record 203,168 tons of zinc concentrate in 2025, and the 2026 output guidance is 240,000 - 290,000 tons [14] 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including price trends of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc, internal and external price ratios, spot premiums, inventory levels, zinc ore processing fees, and downstream enterprise operating rates [16][17][18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the bond market is experiencing a recovery driven by three main factors: the stabilization of the 10-year government bond, the release of previously imbalanced allocation forces, and external factors such as a weakening equity market and continued monetary policy easing by the central bank [7][9][12] - The report highlights that the 10-year government bond has regained its position as the market's "central axis," which limits the downside potential of the bond market. The stabilization of the 10-year bond typically signals the nearing end of the current downward trend in the bond market [7][22][24] - It is noted that the 30-year government bond and 10-year policy financial bonds exhibit a lag in recovery, often responding quickly once the market sentiment shifts. The report suggests that the recovery speed of these long-duration bonds is typically rapid due to their high elasticity and speculative participation [22][23] Group 2 - The report identifies that the upcoming supply-demand dynamics in the ultra-long end of the bond market may pose significant disturbances, while a sustained loose monetary environment is likely to be a major benefit [24][26] - It emphasizes that the bond market's recovery is expected to continue, albeit at a slower pace, with a focus on the issuance rhythm of local government bonds post-Spring Festival. If the allocation forces diminish after the holiday, the market may revert to a state of fluctuation around March [26][18] - The report recommends prioritizing the allocation of medium to long-term bonds with higher coupon rates, particularly the 10-year policy financial bonds, while also considering participation in the primary market for 15-20 year local government bonds [26][18]

甲醇、尿素行情回顾与展望 20260122 摘要 伊朗罢工可能影响甲醇装置运行及 3 月重启计划，美国干预风险亦需关 注，若民生问题未解，罢工或再起，持续影响甲醇供应。 印度不再接受伊朗货源，导致印度甲醇价格上涨，中东、俄罗斯及中国 货源流入套利，同时南美和东南亚装置开工不高，1 月非伊进口供应下 调至 30 万吨左右，总进口量修正至 125 万吨左右，港口库存或将去化。 国内甲醇产量预计 1 月达 805 万吨，同比大幅增加，因利润较好及去年 投产增加。海外方面，马来西亚装置重启与检修并存，印尼装置计划检 修，短期海外开工率维持低位。 下游利润恶化，MTO 利润走差，赛尔邦计划提前检修，星星已停车检修， 1-2 月甲醇市场或转为紧平衡，但港口高库存问题依然存在。 甲醇 05 合约参考区间为 2000~2,400 元/吨，需关注地缘风险、下游 需求走弱风险及伊朗提前重启装置的可能性。 尿素市场受低估值、高供应常态化及淡季需求不淡驱动，出口配额参考 冬储完成度，促进仓储需求。海外供应偏紧及印度招标支撑海外报价。 预计尿素价格区间为 1,650-2000 元/吨，需注意春耕备肥不及预期、出 口政策收紧及宏观风险。 ...

Group 1 - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market include the second extension of the housing tax refund policy, a reduction in the interest rates for existing personal housing loans, and relaxed purchasing conditions for non-local families in Beijing [1] - The real estate market is showing structural new characteristics, with increased activity in second-hand housing transactions in certain cities, and a more pronounced differentiation based on location [1] - In major cities like Beijing, Shenzhen, and Chengdu, policy adjustments are lowering purchasing thresholds and improving transaction efficiency, which is expected to benefit first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade their homes [1][2] Group 2 - The second-hand housing market is projected to account for 44.6% of total housing transactions by 2025, an increase of 2.7 percentage points from 2024, with cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou seeing over 60% of their transactions in second-hand homes [2] - Despite a decline in real estate development investment and new home sales, the overall market is stabilizing, with some major cities experiencing slight year-on-year growth in sales [2] - There is a noticeable differentiation in sales performance among different projects within the same area, with high-quality new developments achieving over 70% sales rates, while older projects struggle due to product deficiencies [3] Group 3 - By the end of 2025, the area of unsold commercial housing is expected to decrease to 76,632 million square meters, down by 3,259 million square meters from the beginning of the year, indicating effective coordination between supply control and demand stimulation measures [4] - The national housing and urban-rural construction work meeting emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market, aiming for a balance between supply and demand and optimizing the structure for high-quality development [4] - The changing dynamics of housing demand, driven by population characteristics, necessitate a more tailored approach to housing supply that aligns with population movement and industrial development [4]

2026年至2030年 扩大内需战略实施方案酝酿出台 2026年，宏观政策的发力点将放在做强国内大循环，全方位扩大国内需求。相关部门将研究制定出台2026年至2030年扩大内需战略实施方案，努力实现供 需互促、循环升级。 这是记者从20日举行的国新办发布会获得的消息。据介绍，为了重点提振服务消费，今年将推动实施服务业扩能提质行动，推出一批具有含金量的政策； 同时，将着力增强居民消费能力，目前有关方面正在研究制定稳岗扩容提质行动和城乡居民增收计划。 内需已经成为拉动经济增长的稳定锚。2025年，内需对经济增长的贡献率超过67%，其中消费贡献率达到了52%。不过也要看到，当前我国经济运行中仍 存在供强需弱的问题。"当前，我国经济发展中需求不足的问题较为突出，同时也存在供给不充分的问题。"国家发展改革委副主任王昌林说，要推动供需 在更高水平上实现动态平衡和良性循环，促进形成更多由内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式。 "通过一系列举措来扩大内需、提振消费，将促进中国经济实现在更高水平上的供需平衡，畅通产业竞争优势新突破与消费提质升级的循环，促进民生福 利的最终改善。"罗志恒说。 记者：汪子旭 罗志恒表示，我国 ...

Group 1: Macro - The current macro - environment features global geopolitical turmoil reshaping the order, domestic structural differentiation, and precise policy - driven stable growth. The old US - led global system is accelerating towards a fragmented end, with the failure of multilateral order and intensified great - power competition becoming the norm [1]. - The US and Europe's game over Greenland has escalated, with the US threatening tariffs on 8 European countries and the EU responding with counter - lists and freezing trade agreements. Swedish and Danish pension funds have cleared US bonds, impacting the traditional safe - haven status of US bonds [1]. - The US core PCE物价指数 in November 2025 met market expectations, indicating no significant rebound in inflation. The Fed is likely to maintain the current interest rate in the January meeting, and may keep rates stable until Powell's term ends in May 2026 [1]. - Japan's central bank policy is highly concerned. It is expected to maintain the current interest rate and hawkish tone, and Governor Ueda may explain this as an assessment of last year's interest - rate hikes [1]. - China's economy in 2025 ended with a pattern of "strong supply, stable external demand, and weak domestic demand". In 2026, the GDP growth target is expected to be 4.5% - 5%, and expanding domestic demand is the core of stable growth [1]. Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate - Overseas, the strong US economic data boosts market risk appetite and depresses interest - rate cut expectations, but the US dollar index lacks upward momentum due to factors like Nordic pension funds' withdrawal [2]. - Domestically, the central bank's unexpected 900 billion yuan MLF operation and the indication of room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts in the year push up the US dollar - RMB exchange rate in the short term, but the expected high corporate settlement willingness may lead to a subsequent decline [2]. - In the future, the RMB has a solid foundation for trend - based appreciation. Its appreciation space depends on the US dollar index and the central bank's exchange - rate control orientation [2]. - Short - term strategy: Export enterprises can lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at the 6.93 level [3]. Group 3: Stock Index - The previous trading day saw a differentiated performance in the stock index. The large - cap index was weak in the morning and fluctuated in the afternoon, while the small - and medium - cap index fluctuated throughout the day. Except for the Shanghai 50 index, other indices closed up [4]. - Short - term, the index is in an adjustment phase with significant style differentiation, but the medium - and long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. Small - and medium - cap indices are expected to outperform [4]. Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, the bond market was lackluster and oscillated. The trading - oriented funds retreated, and the market is cautious about the short - term bond market space [5]. - The central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation, and attention should be paid to whether the capital interest rate will decline and stabilize at a low level [5]. - Medium - term, hold long positions; short - term, stay on the sidelines [5]. Group 5: Container Shipping to Europe - The container shipping index (Europe line) futures market showed a differentiated trend, with near - month contracts under pressure and far - month contracts relatively resilient [5][6][7]. - Bullish factors for far - month contracts include the uncertainty of the Red Sea route's full resumption and potential rush - shipping demand in March [6]. - Bearish factors include the decline in spot freight rates and the reduced risk of short - term trade frictions [6]. - Strategy: Trend traders can conduct range operations, short near - month contracts at the upper end of the range and go long at the lower end, and be cautious about chasing far - month contracts [7]. Group 6: Commodities - New Energy Lithium Carbonate - The main lithium carbonate futures contract closed up, with increased trading volume and open interest. The spot market showed general performance, with rising prices of lithium ore and lithium salts [10]. - The addition of new registered brands on the GZEX is expected to strengthen the basis of lithium carbonate spot and narrow the spread between contracts [10]. - Before early February, consider going long on dips; before the Spring Festival, reduce positions to avoid risks [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The main industrial silicon and polysilicon futures contracts showed different trends. The industrial silicon spot market was general, while the photovoltaic industry chain spot market weakened [11][12][14]. - In April, the rush - export market in the photovoltaic and organic silicon fields is expected to drive up the demand for industrial silicon. For polysilicon, the industry is mainly focused on destocking [14]. - Strategy: Go long on industrial silicon on dips and short polysilicon on rallies. Reduce positions before the Spring Festival [14]. Group 7: Commodities - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The copper price fluctuated narrowly at a key level. The inventory of copper in major exchanges showed different changes, and the spot market had general trading [16][17]. - The capital inflow into the chemical and agricultural product sectors was obvious, and the non - ferrous sector was weak. The copper price faced resistance at 100,000 yuan [18]. - Strategy: Do not open new positions above 100,000 yuan; hold existing long positions in the 90,000 - 95,000 yuan range, and adjust positions flexibly in the 95,000 - 100,000 yuan range [19]. Aluminum - The aluminum price showed a certain degree of volatility. The supply of aluminum increased, and the demand weakened before the Spring Festival, with inventory accumulation [20][21]. - Short - term, the aluminum price will oscillate; medium - and long - term, it is expected to be strong. Pay attention to dips for entry [21]. Zinc - The zinc price oscillated narrowly during the day and was strong at night. The supply was expected to be loose, and the demand was weak, with inventory accumulation [22]. - Short - term, it will oscillate weakly. Aggressive investors can try short positions lightly, and holders can sell call options [23]. Nickel - Stainless Steel - The nickel - stainless steel market oscillated at night. The supply of nickel ore was affected by the rainy season, and the demand for stainless steel was supported by inventory reduction [24]. - Be cautious about the high - level callback of stainless steel [24]. Tin - The tin price oscillated widely during the day and was strong at night. The supply was affected by the slow resumption in Myanmar and Indonesia, and the demand was in the off - season [25]. - It will maintain high - level wide - range oscillation. Be cautious about entering the market [25]. Lead - The lead price oscillated narrowly. The supply was stimulated by high prices, and the demand lacked new drivers, with inventory changes [25]. - It will oscillate, and selling options to collect premiums is recommended [25]. Group 8: Commodities - Oils and Fats and Feeds Oilseeds - The external soybean market is expected to continue to be weak, while the domestic soybean meal market may stop falling at a low valuation. The potential improvement in Sino - Canadian trade relations may change the pricing of rapeseed meal [27][28]. - Strategy: Reduce short positions in rapeseed meal [28]. Oils and Fats - The domestic oils and fats market showed a short - term weakening trend at night, but the overall upward trend remained. Pay attention to small - scale corrections [28]. - Palm oil is the strongest in the sector, and the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil may narrow [28][30]. Group 9: Commodities - Energy and Oil and Gas Fuel Oil - The high - sulfur fuel oil supply tension is easing, and the demand is mainly concentrated in the bunkering market. The long - term downward trend remains, but there is short - term support [31][32]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is increasing, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The crack spread remains low [33]. Asphalt - The asphalt market oscillated. The spot price was stable, and the futures price was affected by geopolitical factors. The supply and demand were weak, and the inventory increased [34]. - Strategy: Pay attention to positive spreads, 03 basis, and crack spread long positions [34]. Group 10: Commodities - Precious Metals Platinum and Palladium - The prices of platinum and palladium rose at night. The market is affected by international political uncertainty, geopolitical conflicts, and challenges to the Fed's independence [36][37]. - In the medium - and long - term, the bull market foundation for platinum and palladium remains. Be vigilant about the opening gap [38]. Gold and Silver - The prices of gold and silver reached new highs. The market is affected by the weakening of the US dollar system and geopolitical risk aversion [38]. - The precious metals market is in a bullish pattern. Gold has support at 4650, and silver has support at 86.5. Consider long positions on dips [39]. Group 11: Commodities - Chemicals Pulp - Offset Paper - The pulp and offset paper futures prices oscillated strongly at night. The pulp price is affected by spot market conditions, port inventory, and European inventory [40]. - Strategy: Observe or go long on dips, and close short positions [40][41]. LPG - The LPG futures price rose. The supply was moderately low, and the demand was weakening, especially in the PDH sector. The inventory was changing [41][42]. - Be cautious about the upward risk [42]. PTA - PX - The PX and PTA futures prices rose strongly. The PX supply is expected to remain high, and the PTA supply is affected by device shutdowns. The demand for polyester is weakening [43][44][45]. - The PTA processing fee is expected to rise, but the space is limited. Wait for dips to go long [45]. MEG - Bottle Chips - The ethylene glycol futures price oscillated strongly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening due to the decline in terminal orders. The inventory is at a certain level [46][47]. - The market is under pressure, and the long - term surplus expectation remains [47]. PP - The polypropylene futures price rose. The short - term supply is reduced due to device maintenance, and the demand has some support, but it is expected to decline seasonally [48][49]. - The short - term fluctuation is dominated by macro - sentiment and cost [49]. PE - The polyethylene futures price rose. The supply is expected to increase after device restart, and the demand will face seasonal decline [50][51]. - The short - term fluctuation is dominated by macro - sentiment and cost [51]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The supply of pure benzene decreased and the demand increased, and the inventory showed changes. The supply of styrene was affected by unplanned maintenance and inventory reduction [51][52]. - Pay attention to the export increment of styrene, crude oil fluctuations, and the downstream's acceptance of high - priced raw materials [52]. Urea - The urea futures price rose. The supply is in an over - capacity stage, and the price is supported by export policies. The 05 contract may have a price increase expectation [52][53]. - Hold long positions [53]. Glass - Soda Ash - The soda ash futures price rose. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has limited elasticity. The inventory is at a high level [54]. - The glass futures price rose. The supply and demand are weak, and the inventory needs to be digested [55]. Propylene - The propylene futures price rose. The supply decreased and the demand increased this week, and the price was supported by cost and supply - demand factors [55][56][57]. - Pay attention to geopolitical and device - related changes [57]. Group 12: Commodities - Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The rebar and hot - rolled coil futures prices oscillated at a low level. The production recovery is slowing, the consumption of rebar is fluctuating, and the inventory is in a certain state. The cost end has both support and pressure [57][58][59]. - The short - term price will oscillate, with the rebar 2605 contract in the 3050 - 3200 yuan range and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract in the 3200 - 3350 yuan range [57]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price recovered. The iron - making production is affected by safety inspections, the inventory is increasing, and the supply and demand are in a certain state [57][58][59]. - The price has fallen to release the premium, and the downward space is not extremely pessimistic [59]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke futures prices rose. The coking coal production is increasing, the import is changing, and the coking enterprises' profits are shrinking. The steel production may be affected by an accident [59][60][61]. - The coking coal price may face downward pressure in the medium - and long - term if certain conditions are met [61]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures prices rebounded. The supply and demand are weakening, and the inventory is changing. The price is supported by cost [61][62]. - They will oscillate at a low level [62]. Group 13: Commodities - Agricultural and Soft Commodities Live Pigs - The live pig futures price rose. The spot price is changing, with the supply being strong and the demand being weak. The second - fattening may support the price at a low level [64]. - The 03 contract may oscillate upward [64]. Cotton - The cotton futures price showed different trends. The domestic cotton supply is increasing moderately, and the demand is supported by spinning capacity expansion. The price is affected by the internal - external spread [64][65][66]. - The cotton price is likely to rise, but be cautious about chasing high. Wait for dips to go long [66]. Sugar - The sugar futures price rose. The international sugar price is affected by the Brazilian sugar - making ratio, and the domestic sugar supply and demand are in a certain state. The spot price is falling [66][67][68]. - The domestic sugar price may fall if the international sugar price drops [68]. Eggs - The egg futures price rose. The supply is sufficient, and the demand for pre - festival stocking is weakening [68][69]. - The near - month contract may continue to rise before the stocking period ends [69]. Apples - The apple futures price rose. The spot price is stable, the pre - festival stocking is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [70][71]. - The price may rise further if the demand continues to improve and the inventory decreases more than expected [71]. Red Dates - The red date market is focused on demand. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. The price is likely to oscillate at a low level [72]. - Pay attention to the pre - festival procurement [72]. Logs - The log futures price rebounded with reduced positions. The spot price is changing, and the inventory is at a certain level. The market sentiment is affecting the price [72][73][74]. - Conduct range operations and pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread opportunity [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, there have been accidents in some steel mills, and environmental protection and production restrictions still exist, causing disturbances on the supply side. Based on the subsequent resumption of production by steel mills and winter storage replenishment, the prices of furnace materials have stabilized, and there is support at the cost end. However, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector during the off - season is becoming more apparent, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the upside space of the market is limited. The prices of glass and soda ash have risen from low levels, but the oversupply situation continues to suppress the market prices [1][2]. - In general, the fundamentals during the off - season are lackluster. Before the Spring Festival, continue to pay attention to the replenishment intensity of downstream enterprises. At the same time, the resumption of production by steel enterprises in January is expected to further boost the replenishment expectation, and the prices of furnace materials still have the expectation of a rebound from low levels. Pay attention to the disturbances of macro - policies [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Supply increment expectation and inventory pressure are gradually increasing. There are still expectations of disturbances on the supply side due to weather. The pre - festival replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The current supply and demand on both sides need to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply of scrap steel has recovered, and the daily consumption is expected to decline. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished product [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - For coke, the cost end still has room for a rebound, and there are still expectations of steel mill production resumption and winter storage replenishment demand. The supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, the spot price increase will still be implemented, and the market is expected to follow coking coal. For coking coal, the winter storage on the demand side is still ongoing, and the production of coal mines is expected to decline as the holiday approaches. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the spot price still has upward momentum, but the bullish drive of the fundamentals is limited after the trading logic changes, and it is expected to oscillate [2]. 3.3 Alloys - For ferromanganese - silicon, the cost support has loosened, the market supply - demand pattern is loose, the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large, and the market price is under pressure above; however, the current futures price has fallen to a low - level range, and the space for further decline is limited. It is expected that the price will mainly operate at a low level around the cost valuation. For ferrosilicon, the current supply and demand in the market are both weak, the fundamental contradictions are relatively limited, and it is expected that the futures price will mainly follow the sector in the short term [3]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - For glass, there are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventories of the middle and lower reaches are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. For soda ash, the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [3]. 3.5 Steel - The spot market trading is weak. The profitability of steel mills continues to improve. The iron and steel production has stopped falling and stabilized, and the production of the five major steel products has remained stable month - on - month. The demand is seasonally weak, the inventory accumulation pressure in the off - season is obvious, and the fundamental contradictions are slowly accumulating. The supply side is disturbed, the cost side has support, but the upside of the market is under pressure. Pay attention to the winter storage and replenishment rhythm of the furnace material end [8]. 3.6 Iron Ore - Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, and the arrivals this period have also declined. The supply side may be disturbed due to weather. The iron and steel production has increased slightly month - on - month, the steel mills' replenishment is in progress, but the enthusiasm is still weak. The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the overall inventory pressure is increasing. The supply increment expectation and inventory pressure are increasing, and the pre - festival replenishment on the demand side supports the price. The current supply and demand need to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [8][9]. 3.7 Scrap Steel - The supply has recovered significantly, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished product [10]. 3.8 Coke - The supply has slightly increased, the demand has recovered slightly, and the inventory has increased steadily. The cost end still has room for a small rebound, the supply - demand structure may tighten, the spot price increase will be implemented, and the market is expected to follow coking coal [12]. 3.9 Coking Coal - The domestic supply is stable, and the imported Mongolian coal has increased. The winter storage of coking enterprises is in progress, and the upstream inventory is being digested. The downstream inventory is gradually in place, and the spot market sentiment has cooled. The demand side's winter storage is still ongoing, the supply is expected to decline, the fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, the spot price still has a small upward momentum, but the bullish drive of the fundamentals is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [13]. 3.10 Glass - The macro is neutral. The supply is expected to decline in the long run, but it is difficult to have a large - scale cold repair in the short term. The downstream demand is weak, and the large inventory in the middle reaches suppresses the valuation. The supply may be disturbed, the current supply and demand are in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate weakly if there is no more cold repair before the end of the year; otherwise, the price will rise [13]. 3.11 Soda Ash - The macro is neutral. The supply has increased, the demand is weak, and the overall supply and demand are in surplus. The short - term is expected to oscillate, and in the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will decline [14][16]. 3.12 Ferromanganese - Silicon - The black sector is trending warmer, and the futures price of the main contract is moving stronger. The cost support has loosened, the market supply - demand pattern is loose, the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large, and the price is under pressure above. However, the current price has fallen to a low - level range, and it is expected to operate at a low level around the cost valuation. Pay attention to the adjustment of raw material prices and the production control efforts of manufacturers [15][16][18]. 3.13 Ferrosilicon - The supply and demand contradictions are limited, and the futures price of the main contract is following the sector to oscillate stronger. The cost is at a relatively high level and supports the price bottom. The supply and demand are both weak, the market trading activity is poor, and the futures price is expected to follow the black sector in the short term. Pay attention to the adjustment of blue carbon prices and settlement electricity prices and the production control trends in the main production areas [16][17]. 3.14 Commodity Index - On January 22, 2026, the comprehensive index, the special index (including the commodity index, the commodity 20 index, the industrial product index, and the PPI commodity index) all showed an upward trend. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.24% on the day, decreased by 1.81% in the past 5 days, increased by 0.03% in the past month, and increased by 0.05% since the beginning of the year [103][104].