Report Information - Date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Industrial Silicon Daily Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The Si2511 contract closed at 8,515 yuan/ton, down 2.85%, with a trading volume of 450,290 lots and an open interest of 281,839 lots, a net decrease of 7,286 lots [4]. - The spot price of industrial silicon opened low and moved high, fluctuating. The price of 553-grade silicon in Sichuan was 8,950 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 8,600 yuan/ton; the price of 421-grade silicon in Inner Mongolia was 9,500 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang was 9,300 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9,700 yuan/ton [4]. - The supply and demand of industrial silicon both increased, maintaining a loose balance, with limited improvement in fundamentals. The high spot price loosened and declined. The weekly output in the third week of August increased to 88,100 tons, equivalent to a monthly output of over 370,000 tons. On the demand side, the production schedule of polysilicon in August will increase to 125,000 tons, while the demand from organic silicon and aluminum alloy remained stable. The export volume in July increased slightly to 70,000 tons. Without considering 97-grade silicon and recycled silicon, there is no inventory reduction drive in the industry. With policies in a vacuum period, short-term futures fluctuations gradually return to fundamental drivers. The spot price is mainly stable, but the high price has loosened, and the futures price will fluctuate widely [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The Si2511 contract closed at 8,515 yuan/ton, down 2.85%, with a trading volume of 450,290 lots and an open interest of 281,839 lots, a net decrease of 7,286 lots [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of industrial silicon opened low and moved high, fluctuating. The price of 553-grade silicon in Sichuan was 8,950 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 8,600 yuan/ton; the price of 421-grade silicon in Inner Mongolia was 9,500 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang was 9,300 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9,700 yuan/ton [4]. - **Future Outlook**: Supply and demand both increased, maintaining a loose balance, with limited improvement in fundamentals. The high spot price loosened and declined. The weekly output in the third week of August increased to 88,100 tons, equivalent to a monthly output of over 370,000 tons. On the demand side, the production schedule of polysilicon in August will increase to 125,000 tons, while the demand from organic silicon and aluminum alloy remained stable. The export volume in July increased slightly to 70,000 tons. Without considering 97-grade silicon and recycled silicon, there is no inventory reduction drive in the industry. With policies in a vacuum period, short-term futures fluctuations gradually return to fundamental drivers. The spot price is mainly stable, but the high price has loosened, and the futures price will fluctuate widely [4]. 2. Market News - On August 28, the futures warehouse receipt volume on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,656 lots, a net decrease of 53 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - According to customs data, China exported 74,000 tons of metallic silicon in July 2025, a month-on-month increase of 8.32% and a year-on-year increase of 36.75%. From January to July 2025, China exported a total of 414,700 tons of metallic silicon, a year-on-year decrease of 1.04% [5]. - On August 28, Hesheng Silicon Industry released its semi-annual report for 2025. The company's operating income was 9.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.3%; the net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 397 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 140.6%; the non-recurring net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 533 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 159.3%; the net operating cash flow was 3.524 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1,987.9%; the EPS (fully diluted) was -0.3359 yuan. In the second quarter, the company's operating income was 4.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.1%; the net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 657 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 245.9%; the non-recurring net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 749 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 297.3%; the EPS was -0.5555 yuan [5]. - Data showed that the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity from January to July 2025 reached 1,109.6 GW, and the newly installed capacity from January to July was 223.25 GW. In July, the newly installed capacity was 11 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Neutral overall, with a cautiously bullish view on device changes and supply - demand balance [5] - PX: Neutral overall, with a cautiously bullish view on downstream demand [6] - Ethylene Glycol: Neutral overall, with a cautiously bearish view on month - spread and device changes, and a cautiously bullish view on downstream demand [7] 2. Core Views PTA - PTA supply has unexpected maintenance, demand seasonally recovers, the balance improves, and the price recovers. It is greatly affected by sentiment in the short term, and attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities after pullbacks [5] PX - PX inventory pressure is not large, recent supply maintenance plans increase, the expected balance is tight, and the PXN around $270 is slightly high. The current valuation reflects the expectation of fundamental improvement. Pay attention to sentiment changes in the short term and buy on dips [6] Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol has a strong current situation but weak expectations. The near - end low inventory has little pressure to accumulate, the coal - based load is at a high level. It is expected that existing devices will restart and new ones will be put into production in the fourth quarter. There is support from anti - involution and coal. Pay attention to reverse - spread opportunities [7] 3. Summary by Directory Demand Seasonal Improvement - Terminal orders have partial improvement, and the operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing machines have increased by 7%, 5%, and 5% to 79%, 68%, and 72% respectively. Downstream raw material inventory is 10 - 20 days, and orders have slightly improved [9] - As of August 22, the polyester load is around 90% (+0.6%), the polyester cash flow is slightly in the red, and the average polyester inventory is around 17 days. Polyester is approaching the peak season, demand has seasonal improvement, and raw materials are strong due to "anti - involution", slightly compressing polyester profits. Last week's sales were good, and polyester overall reduced inventory, with the current inventory being neutral [13] - Polyester industry chain profits are average. Filament profits are slightly in the red, FDY losses are relatively serious, bottle - chip and slice profits are average, and staple - fiber profits are neutral [14] PTA Unexpected Maintenance Increase - In August, PTA maintenance volume was high, and maintenance plans increased in September. YS Dahua and YS Hainan are under maintenance, Jiaxing Petrochemical extended its maintenance and restarted, and Fuhua will restart in mid - September. Hengli Huizhou's two lines are under maintenance and reducing load, and Dushan Energy No. 2 is under planned maintenance [34] - As of August 22, PTA social inventory remained stable, (excluding credit warehouse receipts) inventory decreased to 220 tons, a decrease of 5 tons. The balance in September may continue to reduce inventory [35] - PTA supply - demand balance: In August - September, with unexpected supply improvement and better demand, the supply - demand fundamentals are good, but the price has reflected the supply improvement. Pay attention to macro - sentiment and buy on dips [40] PXN Strength - US gasoline inventory decreases seasonally, the gasoline cracking spread during the peak season remains stable, and the octane number performance is average. Currently, the economics of blending oil is average, and the short - process profit in Asia is acceptable [47][49] - The US - Asia arbitrage spread remains stable. After considering the 25% US tariff on Japan and South Korea, the spread space is not large, and xylene is exempted. North America's demand for aromatics has significantly decreased in 2025, and South Korea's exports of aromatics to the US have remained low since April [55] - PX domestic load changes little, with the domestic load at 84.6% and the Asian load at 76.3%. Tianjin Petrochemical is under maintenance, CNOOC Huizhou slightly reduced its load. There are rumors of maintenance plans for Zhejiang and Lianyungang suppliers. In Asia, Thailand's THAI OIL restarted, Japan's Idemitsu's one line is under maintenance, and Saudi Arabia's Petro Rabigh device restarted [57] - PX is in a loose balance with PTA maintenance. With the expectation of PX maintenance, the PXN remains around $270. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities after pullbacks [59] Ethylene Glycol Situation - As of August 22, the overall ethylene glycol load is stable at 73%, and the coal - based load is 77%. The coal - chemical load is high, and there are some unexpected situations in some coal - chemical loads. It is expected that the coal - chemical load will slightly decrease in September [69] - Domestic ethylene glycol device changes: The domestic overall load is not low, and there are coal - chemical maintenance plans. Shenghong restarted, Tianying and Wonen restarted, Shanxi Weihua and Shenhua Yulin are under maintenance, and Tianye has a maintenance plan in September. Overseas, Singapore's Aster is under maintenance, and the restart of the cracking device is postponed. US Lotte and Malaysia's Petronas restarted [72][84] - As of August 11, the ethylene glycol port inventory in the main ports of East China is about 50 tons, a decrease of 4.7 tons month - on - month. The current inventory is at a low level. From August 18 - 24, the actual arrival was 6.1 tons, and the port reduced inventory. From August 25 - 31, the expected arrival is about 5.4 tons, and the port is expected to slightly reduce inventory in the short term. Polyester factories' ethylene glycol raw material inventory days are 12 days [96] - Ethylene glycol has a strong current situation but weak expectations. The near - end low inventory has little pressure to accumulate, the coal - based load is at a high level. It is expected that existing devices will restart and new ones will be put into production in the fourth quarter. There is support from anti - involution and coal. Pay attention to reverse - spread opportunities [101]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the copper market may remain oscillating at a high level, with the core drivers being the marginal weakening of supply - demand and the differentiation of macro - sentiment. The upward space for copper prices is limited due to the supply - side relief of tightness expectations, demand - side drag from high - price suppression of procurement and weak terminal orders, and the suppression of risk appetite by the rebound of the US dollar [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On August 25, the SHFE main contract closed at 79,360 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.11% from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premium and discount, the premium of premium copper dropped to 165 yuan/ton, that of flat - water copper decreased to 95 yuan/ton, and the premium of wet - process copper dropped by 50% to 15 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) maintained a discount of 78.38 US dollars/ton, with weak support at the spot end [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: LME inventory continuously declined, reaching 22,917 tons on August 25, a new low in nearly a month, while domestic SHFE inventory slightly decreased to 155,000 tons. The narrowing of import losses to 250 yuan/ton repaired the inverted spread between the domestic and foreign markets, which may limit the activity of arbitrage funds [2]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: There are both short - term disturbances and long - term increments. Codelco resumed production at the El Teniente copper mine, strengthening the expectation of supply recovery in Chile. In China, Tibet Summit's copper production increased by 29.9% year - on - year, but Xingye Yinxing's copper production decreased by 44.2% year - on - year, showing a differentiation in mine expansion. Reduced import arrivals made the recent supply tight, but the gradual replenishment of domestic electrolytic copper may ease the gap [3]. - **Demand Side**: There is a structural differentiation in domestic demand, and the suppression effect of high copper prices is significant. The domestic sales of air conditioners increased by 14.3% year - on - year, and the computing power infrastructure drove copper use in the intelligent field. However, the weak orders of cable enterprises and the 5.44% decrease in the finished product inventory of refined copper rods reflected the insufficient carrying capacity of the real economy. The weakening of export demand further restricted the consumption elasticity [4]. - **Inventory Side**: The mainstream copper inventory in China dropped to 123,000 tons on August 25, but SMM predicted that the rebound of import arrivals this week and the consumption suppression by high prices would drive the inventory to rebound month - on - month. The LME inventory overseas continued to decline, but the COMEX inventory reached 272,500 short tons, and the pressure of hidden inventory still needed to be vigilant [5]. Market Summary - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the copper market may remain oscillating at a high level, with the core drivers being the marginal weakening of supply - demand and the differentiation of macro - sentiment. The supply - side relief of tightness expectations and the demand - side drag, along with the suppression of risk appetite by the rebound of the US dollar, limit the upward space for copper prices [6]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - On August 26, 2025, the price of SMM:1 copper was 79,780 yuan/ton, a 0.36% increase from August 25. The premiums of premium copper, flat - water copper, and wet - process copper all decreased, with the wet - process copper's premium dropping by 50%. The SHFE price was 79,360 yuan/ton, a 0.11% decrease from August 25. The LME inventory decreased by 830 tons, a 3.5% decline [8]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - As of August 25, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.87 million tons month - on - month to 12.30 million tons, and it is expected to rebound this week. Codelco announced the resumption of production at some mines in Chile. In July 2025, China's copper product output was 2.169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. Last week, some refined copper rod enterprises reduced production due to maintenance, with raw material inventory decreasing by 2.31% and finished product inventory decreasing by 5.44%. The ICSG reported a global copper surplus of 36,000 tons in June [9]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions, Shanghai copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [10][12][14][15][19][22][24][28][29][32] Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - The analysis of copper futures market data includes market data (price and basis changes, inventory changes), industry chain supply - demand (supply increase from mine resumption and domestic production, demand affected by high prices and export decline), and price trend judgment (high - level oscillation affected by supply, demand, and macro factors such as the US dollar and crude oil). The copper price is expected to be in the range of 78,500 - 80,500 yuan [36][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Aluminum - The short - term market sentiment is cautiously optimistic due to improved macro - atmosphere and peak - season expectations. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and the implementation of macro - policies [1]. Alumina - The market is in an overall oversupply situation, and the spot price is under pressure. The short - term price is expected to have limited upside and downside, with the main contract reference range of 3000 - 3300 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy changes in Guinea and macro - sentiment fluctuations [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The fundamentals are showing marginal improvement. The spot price is expected to remain relatively firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to converge. The main contract reference operating range is 20000 - 20600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply of scrap aluminum and changes in import policies and volumes [3]. Copper - The Fed's dovish stance boosts copper prices, but the upside is still restricted. The fundamentals are in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". The copper price is expected to at least remain volatile, and the main contract reference range is 78500 - 80500 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The supply is loose and the demand is weak. The zinc price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term due to improved interest - rate cut expectations. The main contract reference range is 22000 - 23000 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The market has digested the sentiment and returned to fundamental pricing. The short - term price is expected to be adjusted within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and import - export situations [10]. Stainless Steel - The cost support remains, but the fundamentals are restricted by weak spot demand. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 12600 - 13400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy directions and steel - mill dynamics [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The current fundamentals are in a tight balance. The supply contraction expectation is gradually being fulfilled, and the demand is steadily optimistic. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate around 80,000 yuan/ton [14]. Tin - Affected by the Fed's dovishness, the tin price has risen. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price is expected to remain high and volatile [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20780 yuan/ton, with no change. The spread between different months shows certain fluctuations, such as the 2509 - 2510 spread decreasing by 5 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - The operating rate of aluminum profiles remains unchanged at 50.5%, while the operating rates of aluminum cables, aluminum sheets, and aluminum foils have increased slightly. The LME inventory decreased by 0.1 tons to 47.9 tons, a decrease of 0.17% [1]. Alumina Price and Spread - The average prices of alumina in Shandong, Henan, and other regions have decreased slightly, with a decline of 0.16% - 0.31%. The import profit and loss is - 1354 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - The output in July was 765.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The static supply surplus is nearly 30,000 tons per day [1]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in different regions remain unchanged. The price difference between refined and scrap aluminum in Foshan has increased by 1.28% - 1.06% [3]. Fundamental Data - In July, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.63%, and the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.31%. The import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 10.59% [3]. Copper Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.24% to 79585 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss increased to 128 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the output of electrolytic copper increased by 3.47% to 117.43 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 1.20% to 29.69 million tons. The domestic social inventory decreased by 8.00% to 12.3 million tons [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.13% to 22280 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss decreased to - 1825 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In July, the output of refined zinc increased by 3.03% to 60.28 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 50.35% to 1.79 million tons. The domestic zinc ingot inventory increased by 2.29% to 13.85 million tons [8]. Nickel Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.16% to 121450 yuan/ton. The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowinning nickel decreased by 2.81% to 118531 yuan/ton [10]. Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese refined nickel products decreased by 10.04% to 31800 tons, and the import volume increased by 116.90% to 19157 tons. The SHFE inventory increased by 2.93% to 26962 tons [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) remains unchanged at 13100 yuan/ton. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 0.64% to 937 yuan/nickel point [12]. Fundamental Data - The output of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 million tons. The net export volume increased by 22.37% to 34.32 million tons [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.97% to 81700 yuan/ton. The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remains unchanged [14]. Fundamental Data - In July, the output of lithium carbonate increased by 4.41% to 81530 tons, and the demand increased by 2.50% to 96100 tons. The total inventory decreased by 2.01% to 97846 tons [14]. Tin Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 0.11% to 270000 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss increased by 9.17% to - 15229.07 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In July, the import volume of tin ore decreased by 13.71% to 10278 tons, and the output of SMM refined tin increased by 15.42% to 15940 tons. The SHEF inventory decreased by 3.86% to 7491 tons [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry. However, individual metal outlooks are provided, including "oscillation" for copper, aluminum, lead, and nickel; "oscillation under pressure" for alumina; "oscillation with a downward bias" for zinc; and "oscillation with potential upward volatility" for tin. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Overall Non-Ferrous Metals**: The weakening US dollar index provides support for base metals. In the short to medium term, the weak dollar supports prices, but the weak demand outlook means the potential for inventory reduction in the September peak season is uncertain. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support prices [1]. - **Copper**: Powell's dovish remarks boost copper prices, which are expected to oscillate at a high level. Supply constraints and low inventory support prices, but weakening demand and US tariffs on copper may limit upside [4][5]. - **Alumina**: Spot prices are weak and stable, and increasing warehouse receipts put pressure on prices. The market is expected to oscillate with a downward bias due to overcapacity and inventory accumulation [5][9]. - **Aluminum**: Macro sentiment boosts prices, which are expected to oscillate. Supply capacity is increasing, and demand is showing signs of improvement, but the inventory reduction trend needs confirmation [9][10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Strong cost support keeps prices oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply - demand balance is weak, but there is potential for price spreads to widen [11][14]. - **Zinc**: Rising expectations of interest rate cuts lead to a small rebound in prices. In the long term, supply is expected to remain in surplus, and prices may decline [14][15]. - **Lead**: Macro sentiment drives a small rebound in prices. Supply may tighten slightly this week, and demand is recovering, but battery enterprise operating rates and scrap battery prices also affect prices [16][18]. - **Nickel**: The equity market's strength supports short - term prices, but the market is mainly driven by sentiment, and the fundamental situation is weakening [19][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Declining warehouse receipts drive prices up. Attention should be paid to the realization of peak - season demand and cost changes [24]. - **Tin**: Tight supply supports prices at a high level, but weakening demand in the second half of the year limits upward momentum, and price volatility may increase [24][25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: Powell's dovish speech increases the probability of a Fed rate cut in September, boosting copper prices. Supply constraints remain due to low processing fees and reduced production guidance from some mines. Demand is in the off - season, but low inventory provides short - term support. The price is expected to oscillate [4]. - **Alumina**: Smelters are profitable, and the operating capacity is at a high level, resulting in an oversupply situation. Inventory accumulation and increasing warehouse receipts put pressure on prices. The price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [5][9]. - **Aluminum**: The weakening US dollar and potential domestic stimulus policies affect prices. Supply capacity is increasing, and demand is expected to improve with the approaching peak season, but the inventory reduction trend needs confirmation. The price is expected to oscillate [9][10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The short - term supply - demand balance is weak. Cost support is strong as scrap aluminum prices follow aluminum ingots. The price is expected to oscillate, and there is potential for price spreads to widen [11][14]. - **Zinc**: Rising expectations of interest rate cuts lead to a small rebound in prices. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. In the long term, supply is expected to remain in surplus, and prices may decline [14][15]. - **Lead**: Macro sentiment drives a small rebound in prices. Supply may tighten due to production cuts and transportation restrictions, and demand is recovering as some battery factories resume production. The price is expected to oscillate [16][18]. - **Nickel**: The equity market's strength supports short - term prices, but the market is mainly driven by sentiment. The fundamental situation is weakening, with potential for looser raw material supply and increasing intermediate product output. The price is expected to oscillate [19][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Declining warehouse receipts drive prices up. Attention should be paid to the realization of peak - season demand and cost changes. The price is expected to oscillate [24]. - **Tin**: Tight supply due to production disruptions in major producing regions supports prices. However, weakening demand in the second half of the year limits upward momentum. The price is expected to oscillate, and volatility may increase [24][25]. 3.2行情监测 The report does not provide specific content for this section.

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market risk preference remains high despite the under - performance of domestic economic and financial data. Different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper may have a small - scale inventory build - up in August but a tight - balance pattern after the off - season; aluminum is expected to have a small inventory build - up in August; zinc is expected to rebound in the short - term and be a short - position configuration in the long - term; nickel can focus on the opportunity of the shrinking ratio of nickel - stainless steel; stainless steel's fundamentals are weak and should pay attention to policy trends; lead prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillation; tin should be observed in the short - term and held near the cost line in the long - term; industrial silicon is expected to be in a tight balance in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term; lithium carbonate has large price elasticity when supply - side disturbances are hyped [1][2][5]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 5, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 45, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 1009. - **Market Situation**: The risk - preference sentiment continued to rise this week. Although domestic economic and financial data were poor, it did not affect the stock market sentiment. The downstream orders were verified to have support around 7 - 8, and the substitution effect of refined and waste copper continued to appear. The waste copper and recycled copper market was still disturbed, and if the recycled rod production continued to decline, it might stimulate the consumption of refined copper. In August, there may be a small - scale inventory build - up, but the market may focus on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 30, and the social inventory of Shanghai aluminum decreased. - **Market Situation**: The supply increased slightly from January to June. The demand in August is still in the seasonal off - season, which may improve slightly in the middle and late months. The inventory is expected to increase slightly in August. Pay attention to the demand situation in the short - term and the far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities under the low - inventory pattern [1][2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 30, the social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 1300. - **Market Situation**: The zinc price fluctuated widely this week. The supply of domestic zinc increased in August, and the overseas mine supply in the second quarter exceeded expectations. The domestic demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience, and the overseas demand was average. The domestic social inventory oscillated upwards, and the overseas LME inventory decreased rapidly. In the short - term, it is expected to rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, it is a short - position configuration. The internal - external positive arbitrage can be held, and attention can be paid to the inter - month positive arbitrage opportunity [5][6]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 450. - **Market Situation**: The supply of pure nickel remained at a high level, the demand was weak overall, and the inventory of domestic and overseas nickel plates remained stable. In the short - term, the fundamental situation is general, and the macro - level is mainly about the game of anti - involution policies. The opportunity of the shrinking ratio of nickel - stainless steel can continue to be concerned [9][10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil decreased by 50, and the price of 304 hot - rolled coil decreased by 75. - **Market Situation**: Some steel mills cut production passively, and the demand was mainly for rigid needs. The prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron remained stable, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan decreased slightly. The fundamentals remained weak, and attention should be paid to the policy trend in the later stage [12][14]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the spot premium remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 6550. - **Market Situation**: The lead price oscillated this week. The supply side had problems such as weak scrap volume and tight waste batteries. The demand side had high battery finished - product inventory and a "not - prosperous peak season". The inventory was expected to remain at a high level in August, and the lead price was expected to remain in low - level oscillation next week [15]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the spot import profit decreased by 3915.73, and the LME inventory increased by 45. - **Market Situation**: The tin price fluctuated widely this week. The supply side had issues such as low processing fees at the mine end and potential production resumptions overseas. The demand side had limited solder elasticity and different trends in terminal electronics and photovoltaic consumption. The domestic inventory decreased slightly. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, it can be held near the cost line [18]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 110, and the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 110. - **Market Situation**: The resumption of production of Xinjiang's leading enterprises was slower than expected. In August, the supply - demand was in a state of slight inventory reduction. In the short - term, the supply - demand balance may remain tight. In the long - term, the industrial silicon has a large over - capacity, and the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [22]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the SMM electric - carbon price decreased by 1300, and the SMM industrial - carbon price decreased by 1300. - **Market Situation**: The futures price fluctuated greatly this week due to supply - side disturbances. The spot market had a strong peak - season effect, and the inventory was still high. The core contradiction is the supply - side disturbance under the background of over - supply in the long - term. The price has large elasticity when supply - side disturbances are hyped [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures prices experienced a significant decline, with the main contract closing at 78,960 yuan/ton on August 23, marking a cumulative drop of over 11% in the last four trading days [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent price drop is attributed to weak fundamentals, negative news, and profit-taking by investors [3]. - The core driver of the recent price surge was supply disruptions, but the subsequent price increase has begun to stimulate supply [3]. - Market sentiment has turned bearish, particularly following news of production resumption by Yichun Silver Lithium and a more than 30% month-on-month increase in lithium ore imports in July [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - As of August 21, lithium carbonate production was approximately 19,100 tons, a decrease of 842 tons from the previous week, primarily due to reductions in lithium mica and salt lake production [5]. - Social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 713 tons to around 141,500 tons, indicating a significant drawdown, although inventory levels remain high compared to the past year [5]. - Current market contradictions include halted production at key projects and potential license expirations for mining operations, which could lead to further supply constraints [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market remains in a loose supply-demand balance, with short-term price pressures likely [6]. - There is an expectation of increased demand as the "golden September and silver October" consumption season approaches, which may support prices despite recent declines [6]. - The sensitivity of the market to supply disruptions remains high, and prices may experience volatility as new information emerges [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, in the short term, the spot price is expected to fluctuate mainly due to low processing margins, some plant overhauls, and the lack of cost - side support from oil prices. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine ceasefire and the changes in upstream and downstream plants [5]. - For MEG, the market is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, with obvious downside support, as the arrival volume is at a low level, port inventory is expected to remain low, and demand is gradually recovering. Attention should be paid to the recovery speed of polyester load and commodity trends [6]. - The industry has both positive and negative factors. Positives include planned PTA plant overhauls in August and the approaching "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. Negatives are the continued pressure on profit margins in each link of the industrial chain and the cautious overall operation atmosphere. The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level, and attention should be paid to the cost side and the upper resistance level of the market rebound [8]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the content 2.每日提示 - **PTA**: Yesterday, due to the unexpected shutdown of a 5 million - ton PTA plant in South China, the PTA futures price rose significantly, driving up the entire polyester - chain futures market. The downstream polyester sales also improved slightly. The spot basis first rose and then weakened. The current mainstream spot basis is 09 + 7. The PTA factory inventory is 3.71 days, a 0.05 - day increase from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above it. The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. In the short term, the spot price is expected to fluctuate, and the basis will also show interval fluctuations [5]. - **MEG**: On Thursday, the price of ethylene glycol remained high, and the basis was stable. The intraday disk fluctuated slightly. The spot negotiation was around a premium of 88 - 92 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The inventory in East China decreased by 26,900 tons to 500,500 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above it. The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing. In the short term, the market is expected to be slightly bullish, and the port inventory is expected to remain low in August - September [6][7]. 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the content 4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes in different periods [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the ethylene glycol's operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory data from January 2024 to December 2025, showing the supply - demand situation and inventory changes [10]. 5.价格相关 - There are multiple price - related charts, including the spot price of bottle chips, production margin, capacity utilization rate, inventory, PTA and MEG's inter - month spreads, basis, and the spot spread between TA and EG, as well as the processing margin of p - xylene [12][15][18][22][25][28][35]. 6.库存分析 - There are inventory - related charts, such as the PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET slice factory inventory, and the inventory days of various polyester products in Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms [38][40][43]. 7.聚酯上下游开工 - There are charts showing the upstream and downstream operating rates of polyester, including the operating rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms [49][53]. 8.加工费与利润 - There are charts about the PTA processing fee and the profits of MEG produced by different methods, as well as the production margins of polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY) [57][60][63].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by macro factors and supply - demand fundamentals. With the opening of the import window, the inflow of imported goods exerts pressure on prices, while downstream demand shows rigid procurement [8]. - The alumina market is influenced by policy changes and supply - demand imbalances. The overall supply is tight, and the actual demand is weak [15][31]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is affected by overseas sanctions and domestic inventory changes. The domestic price is relatively resistant to decline compared with the external market [23]. - The zinc market has a bearish fundamental situation with increasing domestic supply and weak terminal consumption, but the LME zinc price may be supported in the short - term [38]. - The lead market is in a state of weak supply and demand. The production of recycled lead is reduced due to losses, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [42][43]. - The nickel market has a large supply surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely, waiting for macro changes [48]. - The stainless steel market is affected by external demand and cost factors. The price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [55]. - The tin market is in a tight - balance state of supply and demand. The supply of ore is tight, and the production of smelters is affected. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery signals [62]. - The industrial silicon market is in a tight - balance state with high inventory. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [68]. - The polysilicon market has an oversupply situation in August, but the spot price is rising. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [72]. - The lithium carbonate market may continue to adjust at a high level in the short - term, and there may be an opportunity for a second - round rise after the stabilization of the commodity index [77]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,540 yuan/ton, down 0.05%, and the open interest of the Shanghai copper index decreased by 732 lots to 460,600 lots. The spot premium in Shanghai decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 160 yuan/ton [2]. - **Important Information**: In July, China's scrap copper imports increased by 3.73% month - on - month to 183,200 tons, and refined copper exports increased by nearly 50% month - on - month to 118,398 tons. On August 20, Blue Moon Metals obtained at least $140 million in financing for the Nussir copper project in Norway, which is expected to be put into production in September 2027 [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market focuses on the future interest - rate cut rhythm. The supply of copper ore has been alleviated, and the inflow of imported goods exerts pressure on prices. Downstream demand shows rigid procurement [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term supply increase puts pressure on copper prices; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [12]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose by 80 yuan to 20,125 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 73 lots to 9,553 lots. The spot price of aluminum ingots in different regions increased [10]. - **Important Information**: The four - ministry notice affects the recycled aluminum industry. In July, the weighted average full cost of the Chinese casting aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry increased by 85 yuan/ton compared with June, and the profit per ton increased by 104 yuan/ton. On August 21, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three places decreased by 66 tons [10][11][27][29]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the overall market supply is tight. The actual demand is weak [15][31]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price fluctuates with the aluminum price; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [16][17][32][33]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract rose by 100 yuan to 20,620 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 1,003 lots to 564,100 lots. The spot price of aluminum ingots in different regions increased [19]. - **Important Information**: The Fed's July meeting minutes showed a hawkish signal. The White House is considering a tri - party meeting. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the import and export volume changed in July [19][20][22]. - **Trading Logic**: Overseas sanctions on Russian aluminum and the Jackson Hole meeting affect the market. The domestic inventory decline may make the domestic price relatively resistant to decline [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price fluctuates with the external market in the short - term; recommend short - term arbitrage strategies and waiting and seeing for options [24][25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2510 rose by 0.09% to 22,265 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the Shanghai zinc index increased by 1,549 lots to 216,200 lots. The spot trading in Shanghai was weak [35]. - **Important Information**: As of August 21, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places was 132,900 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons compared with August 18. The safety inspection in northern lead - zinc mines has increased [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply is increasing, and the terminal consumption is weak. The LME zinc price may be supported in the short - term [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price may fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [38]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2510 fell by 0.45% to 16,740 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the Shanghai lead index increased by 3,663 lots to 96,400 lots. The spot trading of refined lead was difficult [40]. - **Important Information**: As of August 21, the social inventory of lead ingots was 69,900 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons compared with August 18 [41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The consumption is weak, and the loss of recycled lead smelters is expanding, resulting in a reduction in production [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to sell high and buy low; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [43]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell by 360 yuan to 119,830 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased by 3,803 lots. The spot premium of different types of nickel increased [45][46]. - **Important Information**: In June 2025, the global refined nickel supply surplus was 12,600 tons, and from January to June, the supply surplus was 180,000 tons [47]. - **Logic Analysis**: The nickel supply surplus is large, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in the report Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract SS2510 fell by 35 yuan to 12,795 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased by 3,900 lots. The spot price of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel is given [50]. - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel casting project in Zhejiang started construction. The sample inventory in Foshan decreased slightly, while the social inventory in 89 warehouses increased [51][55]. - **Logic Analysis**: The external demand is affected by the global economy and tariffs, and the price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [55]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate widely; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and selling out - of - the - money put options [53][56]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2509 closed at 266,480 yuan/ton, down 1,960 yuan/ton or 0.73%. The spot price of tin ingots decreased [59]. - **Important Information**: In June 2025, the global refined tin supply shortage was 3,500 tons, and from January to June, the supply shortage was 7,800 tons [60]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's attitude affects the market. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the production of smelters is affected. The market is in a tight - balance state [61][62]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to continue to oscillate; recommend waiting and seeing for options [63][64]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures rose by 3.66% to 8,635 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained stable [65][66]. - **Important Information**: A product of Xin'an Co., Ltd. was included in the list of excellent industrial new products in Zhejiang [67]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is in a tight - balance state with high inventory, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [68]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to operate within a range; recommend participating in the reverse arbitrage of 11 and 12 contracts; recommend waiting and seeing for options [68]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures oscillated narrowly and closed at 51,530 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. The spot price of polysilicon increased [69][70]. - **Important Information**: The US government tightened the approval of renewable energy projects [71]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is an oversupply in August, but the spot price is rising, and it is recommended to buy on dips [72]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips; recommend conducting a positive arbitrage of 2511 and 2512 contracts; recommend selling out - of - the - money put options and buying call options [73]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate 2511 fell by 140 yuan to 82,760 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased by 21,134 lots. The spot price decreased [74]. - **Important Information**: A Chilean lithium producer expects an increase in sales in the third quarter. The tax department exposed tax - evasion cases in the "new three" fields. The new - energy vehicle market shows growth [75][76]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price may continue to adjust at a high level in the short - term, and there may be an opportunity for a second - round rise [77]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy after a sufficient correction; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage; recommend selling out - of - the - money put options of 2511 [78][79][80].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Data is generally bullish, driving short - term oil price increases, but weakening supply - demand dynamics limit the rebound space. Brent futures rose 1.60% to above $66 last week, but faced significant pressure from the EMA50 resistance level on the technical side. In the medium term, OPEC+ accelerating production increases, the recovery of the number of US rigs to 412, and the delay of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations will suppress risk appetite. It is expected that WTI will maintain range - bound oscillations in the short term. An upward breakthrough requires further fermentation of geopolitical risk premiums, and the downside risk comes from India's actual diversion scale exceeding expectations and a sharp drop in refinery loads [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inventory Situation Viewpoints - As of the week ending August 15, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.014 million barrels, a 1.41% decline, the largest single - week drop in three months. Cushing inventories increased by 419,000 barrels but remained within the five - year average range. Refinery operating rates unexpectedly rose to 96.6% (expected 95.7%), indicating that refineries are accelerating work to complete tasks before the summer maintenance. Net exports of refined oil products increased to 5.211 million barrels per day, a record high. The increase in exports and processing volume drove continuous inventory reduction, but the counter - seasonal increase in distillate inventories to 116 million barrels (+2.06%) reflects weak diesel demand [2] - US crude oil production jumped by 55,000 barrels per day to 1.3382 million barrels per day, the fastest growth rate in five months. The current supply contradiction lies in the export end: US weekly crude oil exports soared by 795,000 barrels to 4.372 million barrels per day, opening an arbitrage window for Asian buyers. Geopolitical events have strengthened alternative trade flows. The Trump administration plans to impose a 50% tariff on India, forcing India to adjust its procurement path. However, the Russian ambassador to India said that Russian oil remains irreplaceable with a 5% discount. Attention should be paid to the flow direction of India's crude oil from August to September. High - load refinery operations are not sustainable, and the equipment maintenance season will start in early September. Current profit compression may suppress restocking efforts [2] Weekly Data Tracking - WTI was at $63 on August 15, unchanged from August 8, with a - 0.33% change rate compared to July 25. US weekly crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels per day to 13.382 million barrels per day, a 0.41% increase. The four - week average of US weekly net crude oil imports remained unchanged at 2.887 million barrels per day. US refinery crude oil processing volume (four - week average) increased by 28,000 barrels per day to 17.208 million barrels per day, a 0.16% increase. The US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 0.21% to 97%. US weekly net exports of refined oil products increased by 31,000 barrels per day to 5.211 million barrels per day, a 0.60% increase. US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) decreased by 6 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a 1.41% decline. US Cushing crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) increased by 1.82% to 23 million barrels. US strategic crude oil inventories remained unchanged at 403 million barrels. US gasoline inventories decreased by 3 million barrels to 224 million barrels, a 1.20% decline. US distillate inventories increased by 2 million barrels to 116 million barrels, a 2.06% increase. US aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 1.02% to 43 million barrels. US other oil product inventories (excluding ethanol) decreased by 0.04% to 326 million barrels [5] Appendix: Big - Model Inference Process - As of August 15, 2025, the reduction in US commercial crude oil inventories was much larger than expected, indicating a rapid de - stocking process, which is a potentially bullish factor. US crude oil weekly production increased by 55,000 barrels per day, the largest increase since March 2025, which may put pressure on the supply side. The refinery operating rate was higher than expected, indicating strong refining demand, which may explain the decline in inventories. Gasoline inventories declined more than expected, while distillate inventories increased, suggesting weak diesel demand or increased supply [53] - The four - week average of net imports remained unchanged, but single - week imports decreased by 1.218 million barrels, and exports soared to 4.372 million barrels per day, the highest since April, indicating strong export demand and supporting the decline in inventories. The US threat to impose tariffs on India may affect future supply - demand balance. The refinery maintenance season may affect processing volume, and long - term OPEC+ production increases and US production growth may bring pressure. Geopolitical factors and US election policy changes may also affect oil price trends [53][54]