Report Information - Report Title: Export Throughput Maintains Resilience, Price Trends Diverge [1] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 - Analysts: Zhang Jiqiang, Wu Jing, Wu Yuhang - Contact: Li Zihao Core Viewpoints - In the third week of August, external demand showed high throughput year-on-year, but freight rates were weak with a widening decline. The real estate market had mixed performance in transactions, with new and second-hand housing sales continuing to decline year-on-year, and housing prices yet to stabilize. On the production side, the industrial freight volume was good, coal prices rose, and production maintained a differentiated resilience. In the construction industry, cement supply and demand improved marginally, while black metal supply and demand were weak. In the consumption sector, travel remained resilient, and automobile consumption increased slightly. Prices of crude oil were significantly affected by external factors, and the fundamentals restricted black metal prices, while Powell's dovish signals supported copper prices [2]. Summary by Category Consumption - Travel maintained a high level, with increases in subway ridership, congestion delay index, and flight operation rates similar to the previous year. Automobile consumption increased slightly, textile consumption recovered, and express delivery pick-up volume remained high [3]. Real Estate - Real estate transactions were differentiated. New housing transactions were basically flat, with second-tier cities leading. Second-hand housing transactions recovered, especially in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Chengdu. The listing price and quantity of second-hand housing both decreased, and the land premium rate increased while land transactions decreased [4][6]. Production - Freight volume remained high, and the data of operating rates were differentiated. In the power sector, coal consumption increased, hydropower decreased, and coal prices rose. In the construction industry, the funds in place increased year-on-year, cement supply and demand improved, black metal supply and demand declined, and asphalt operating rates decreased [5][13][14]. External Demand - Port throughput remained high, but freight rates declined. The cumulative cargo throughput and container throughput of ports were at a high level. The RJ/CRB index increased year-on-year, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) decreased, and international route freight rates weakened. South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of August increased by 7.62% year-on-year, and Vietnam's exports in the first half of August increased by 15.56% year-on-year [5]. Prices - The prices of agricultural products, crude oil, and cement increased, while the prices of black metals were differentiated, and the prices of non-ferrous metals and glass decreased. The increase in crude oil prices was due to geopolitical risks and increased demand, while the differentiation of black metal prices was affected by supply and demand and policies [20][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - Molybdenum concentrate prices have reached a nearly 29-month high, while tungsten concentrate prices have hit the highest level since 2011 [2] - The liquidity indicators show that the M1 and M2 growth rate difference narrowed to -3.2 percentage points, marking a nearly 49-month high [11] - The construction and real estate sectors are showing mixed signals, with a notable increase in crude steel production [22] Summary by Sections Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.2 percentage points in July 2025, up by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [11] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for July 2025 was 46.09, down 6.16% month-on-month [19] Construction and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel production for key enterprises in early August increased by 4.64% month-on-month [22] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.25%, with a slight increase of 0.03 percentage points [40] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was at a five-year high, with a current rate of 73.13%, up by 1.06 percentage points [2] - The prices for major commodities showed varied performance, with copper prices down by 0.29% and aluminum prices up by 0.34% [2] Price Movements - The price of rebar was 3,270 yuan/ton, down by 0.91% week-on-week [10] - Molybdenum concentrate prices reached 4,465 yuan/ton, up by 2.29% [2] - Tungsten concentrate prices were at 227,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 12.94% [10] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 4.18%, with the commercial vehicle sector showing the best performance at +5.13% [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.56, with a historical high of 0.82 [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - The cumulative year-on-year change in national commercial housing completion area from January to July 2025 was -16.50% [75] - The profit margins for titanium dioxide and flat glass remain low, with flat glass operating rates at 75.34% [77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the bond market followed the stock market. The influence of the stock index on the bond market weakened. Short - term focus on stock market changes: a strong stock market will suppress the bond market, while a stock market correction will benefit bond bulls. The trading strategy is for trading - type investors to conduct band operations [2][35][36] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - This week, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened lower with a gap on Monday and then fell sharply, fluctuated horizontally on Tuesday, fell sharply on Wednesday, rebounded after hitting the bottom on Thursday, and declined slightly on Friday. The 30 - year treasury bond fell 1.05%, the 10 - year treasury bond fell 0.52%, the 5 - year treasury bond fell 0.28%, and the 2 - year treasury bond fell 0.03% [5] - As of August 22, the maturity yield curve of treasury bond cash bonds shifted upward in parallel compared with August 15. The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields rose by 3, 4, 3, and 3 basis points respectively [8] 3.2 Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Data - In July, the national general public budget revenue was 2027.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.65%, and the expenditure was 1946.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.04%. From January to July, the cumulative general public budget revenue increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the expenditure increased by 3.4% year - on - year [11] - In July, national tax revenue was 1801.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%, and non - tax revenue was 225.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9% [13] - From January to July, the national government - funded budget revenue was 2312.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%, and the expenditure was 5428.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 31.7% [16] 3.3 Unemployment Rate - In July, the unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 age group (excluding students) in urban areas was 17.8%, higher than the same period last year by 0.7 percentage points; the 25 - 29 age group was 6.9%, higher than the same period last year by 0.4 percentage points; the 30 - 59 age group was 3.9%, the same as the same period last year [19] 3.4 South Korean Export Data - In the first 20 days of August, South Korea's exports increased by 7.6% year - on - year. Semiconductor exports were 8.71 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 29.5%, accounting for 24.5% of the total exports in the first 20 days of August, up 4.2 percentage points from the same period last year [21] 3.5 New Home Sales Data - Since June, the decline rate of the national new home sales area has accelerated. From January to March, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 2.36 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. From August 1 to 20, it was 1.8 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16% [23] 3.6 Price Data - As of August 22, the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices was 115.53. Prices showed a slight upward trend in the first 22 days of August, but the upward slope was much lower than the same period last year. In July, energy prices increased by 1.6% month - on - month, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.12 percentage points. The average domestic refined oil price in August was lower than that in July [25] - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index declined slightly in the first 22 days of August. After reaching a closing high on July 25, it continued to decline. Short - term inflation pressure is limited [28] 3.7 Capital Interest Rate Data - This week, capital interest rates increased. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.45%, and it fell to 1.41% on Friday. The weighted average of DR007 was 1.52%, and it fell to 1.47% on Friday. The average issuance interest rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.67%, higher than last week's average of 1.64% [31][32] 3.8 Treasury Bond Futures Market Logic and Trading Strategy - In July, China's fixed - asset investment growth rate was significantly lower than market expectations. Retail sales of consumer goods, industrial added value, and the service industry production index were all lower than expected. Real estate sales and prices continued to decline, while exports exceeded expectations. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the State Council will take measures to stimulate consumption, expand investment, and stabilize the real estate market [35] - The trading strategy is for trading - type investors to conduct band operations [36]

Supply and Demand - Construction starts remain at seasonal low levels, with asphalt plant operating rates at 32.9%, down 12.9% year-on-year, and cement dispatch rates at 40.1%, down 4.4% year-on-year[14] - Industrial production shows a mixed picture, with PX operating rates at 82.4%, down 7.7% year-on-year, while automotive steel tire operating rates have decreased[24] - Some construction demand has turned positive year-on-year, with rebar apparent demand showing a positive change, primarily due to a low base in 2024[29] Prices - International commodity prices are fluctuating, with crude oil prices declining and gold prices showing a slight increase[39] - Domestic industrial prices are generally weak, with the Nanhua Composite Index declining, while coal prices have continued to rise[40] - Agricultural product prices have shown an upward trend, while pork prices have been declining[56] Real Estate - New housing transactions remain at historical lows, with a 18% decrease in average transaction area in 30 major cities compared to the previous two weeks, and a year-on-year decline of 29% compared to 2023[58] - Second-hand housing transactions are also weak, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing year-on-year changes of -8%, +4%, and +2% respectively[62] Exports - Exports from August 1 to 17 are estimated to have increased by approximately 7% to 9% year-on-year, with models indicating a 7% increase and container ship loading data suggesting a 9% increase[65] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen fluctuations in funding rates, with the R007 at 1.45% and DR007 at 1.51% as of August 1[71] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 21,022 billion yuan through reverse repos in recent weeks[72] Risk Warning - There are risks associated with unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and potential changes in policy strength[76]

Economic Performance - In July, industrial added value grew by 5.7% year-on-year, while retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year[7] - Fixed asset investment from January to July saw a year-on-year increase of 1.6%[7] Investment Trends - In July, fixed asset investment experienced a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, driven by manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments dropping by 0.3%, 5.1%, and 17.0% respectively[8] - The construction installation engineering growth rate fell to -6.0% in July, indicating a downturn in the construction sector[8] Consumption Insights - Retail sales growth slowed to 3.7% year-on-year in July, with significant contributions from the automotive and home appliance sectors declining[8] - Restaurant revenue growth remained low, with a slight increase to 1.1% year-on-year, reflecting weak consumer spending in the service sector[8] Export Dependency - The report emphasizes that export performance remains a critical anchor for growth, as domestic demand alone may not suffice to fill production gaps if exports weaken[8] - July saw a decline in export delivery value growth, dropping below 1.0% year-on-year, indicating a weakening support for production from exports[8] Risk Factors - External economic volatility and uncertainty in policy responses pose risks to future growth, particularly if export trends continue to decline[8][9]

Economic Overview - In July, China's total goods import and export amounted to 3.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, with exports at 2.31 trillion yuan, growing by 8.0% [1][3] - The export growth rate in July continued to rebound for the second consecutive month, increasing by 0.8 percentage points compared to June [1] - Imports also showed significant improvement, with a growth rate increase of 2.4 percentage points from June [1] Export and Import Dynamics - Despite a decline in exports to the U.S. due to tariffs, China's overall export performance remains resilient, with a notable increase in exports to non-U.S. markets [3] - The major categories driving the increase in imports in July included high-tech products, such as aircraft engines and integrated circuits, following the U.S. lifting some export controls [3] Consumer Spending Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in July reached 3.88 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, although it saw a month-on-month decline of 0.14% [3][5] - The consumption of key goods, supported by the policy of replacing old appliances, showed significant growth, with categories like home appliances and communication equipment seeing increases of 28.7% and 14.9% respectively [5] Investment Insights - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 28.82 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, reflecting a decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [5][6] - Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2%, while infrastructure investment increased by 3.2%, both showing a decrease in growth rate compared to the previous period [5][6] Economic Challenges and Policy Responses - The economic environment remains complex, with external factors such as trade protectionism and extreme weather conditions impacting economic performance [7] - The government is focusing on maintaining stable macroeconomic policies, enhancing flexibility, and promoting domestic demand to support economic recovery [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, China's exports exceeded expectations, but container throughput dropped sharply at the beginning of August, and if the trend continues, August may be a turning point [1][11]. - Although the month - on - month PPI growth rate rebounded in July, the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged. If commodity prices can hold up in August, the year - on - year PPI growth rate may rebound, but the rebound amplitude is expected to be limited [2][17]. - The real estate market continues to be sluggish, with new home sales area at a historical low and the second - hand housing market deteriorating [2][21]. - The bond market is in a volatile state this week. Looking forward, the bond market has investment value, and bond yields may break previous lows [3][35]. Summary by Directory 1. Domestic Economic Data Tracking (1) Export Exceeded Expectations - In July, China's export value was $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, far exceeding the Wind consensus forecast of 5.8% [11]. - Due to the "rush to export", the cumulative growth rate of export value has deviated from the annual average of the new export order index. Exports to the EU and ASEAN remained resilient, while those to the US continued to decline [11]. - Container throughput continued to rise in July but dropped sharply at the beginning of August. If the trend continues, August may be a turning point [1][11]. (2) Supply - side Reform Has Not Been Transmitted to PPI - In July, the year - on - year PPI remained at - 3.6%, the same as in June, due to the base effect. However, the month - on - month PPI growth rate rebounded by 0.2 percentage points compared to June [15][17]. - If commodity prices can hold up in August, the year - on - year PPI growth rate may rebound. However, the rebound amplitude is expected to be limited because the price increase in the upstream is difficult to be transmitted downstream, and overall demand needs to recover. Currently, only the mining and raw material sectors are showing price increases, accounting for about 25% [2][19]. 2. Real Estate Policy Effect Tracking - The Real Estate Market Continued to Perform Sluggishly - The sales area of new homes in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline seasonally, remaining lower than the same period in 2024. The sales area of new homes in first - and third - tier cities was lower than in 2024, while that in second - tier cities was basically the same as last year. All are hovering at historical lows [2][21]. - As of July 28, the listing price index of second - hand housing continued to decline overall. The listing price index in first - tier cities rebounded slightly, while those in second - and third - tier cities continued to fall [2][21]. 3. Treasury Bonds: Policy Disturbance Cooled Down, and the Bond Market Remained Volatile - The bond market was relatively stable this week. The central bank conducted a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan, sending a signal of explicit support [35]. - The upward trend brought by supply - side reform cooled down this week, and the impact on the bond market was not significant. Due to the unfalsifiable expectation of economic recovery brought by policy expectations, the bond market remained volatile [35]. - Looking forward, the overall view is bullish, with short - term volatility expected. The probability of interest rates continuing to decline is relatively high, and it will take time to test the policy effects [35].

Economic Indicators - July CPI growth slowed to 0% from 0.1% in June, while PPI's year-on-year decline remained at 3.6%[6] - The year-on-year decline in PPI's month-on-month change narrowed to 0.2% from 0.4% in June[6] Export and Trade - High-frequency indicators suggest a potential decline in August exports, indicating a gradual retreat from previous "export rush" effects[1] - July's dollar-denominated import/export growth rates improved to 4.1% and 7.2% respectively, up from 1.1% and 5.9% in June[6] Real Estate Market - New home transaction area in 44 cities saw a year-on-year decline widen to 24.4% from 21.4% the previous week, with first-tier cities experiencing a 39.2% drop[61] - Second-hand home transaction area in 22 cities also saw a decline widen to 3.1% from 3.0%[61] Commodity Prices - Brent crude oil prices fell 4.7% to $66.4 per barrel, while COMEX gold prices rose 1.2% to $3,404 per ounce[3] - Domestic copper and rebar prices increased by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, while coking coal and cement prices rose by 1.7% and 0.7%[3] Financial Market Trends - Interbank liquidity showed marginal easing, with the RMB appreciating 0.39% against the USD[4] - Net issuance of interest rate bonds increased to 808.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year rise of 2.7%[4]

Economic Indicators - July 2025 domestic CPI is expected to be approximately 0.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year rate remaining at 0.1%[3] - July PPI is projected to be around 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase to -3.3%[3] - Industrial added value is expected to slightly decline to 6.3% year-on-year in July[3] - Retail sales of consumer goods are anticipated to rise to 5.0% year-on-year in July[3] - Fixed asset investment is forecasted to decrease slightly to 2.5% year-on-year cumulative[3] - Exports in dollar terms are expected to continue a slight increase to around 6.0% year-on-year[3] Financial Metrics - Trade surplus for July is projected at $1,002 million, down from $1,148 million[4] - Monthly credit increment is expected to be 2,900 million yuan, significantly lower than the previous 22,400 million yuan[4] - Total social financing monthly increment is forecasted at 16,000 million yuan, down from 41,993 million yuan[4] - M2 year-on-year growth rate is expected to remain stable at 8.3%[4]

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for July is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a historically low level for this period [2][3] - Weak demand is the primary reason for the July PMI decline, with new orders and new export orders significantly below historical averages [3][5] - The production index remains resilient despite seasonal weaknesses caused by extreme weather conditions, holding steady at historical levels [4] Group 1: PMI Performance - The July manufacturing PMI is 49.3%, remaining below the growth line for four consecutive months, and is only higher than the figures from 2021 and 2022 [3] - The production index for July is 50.5%, slightly below the historical average, influenced by seasonal factors such as high temperatures and flooding [4] - New orders index stands at 49.4%, falling below the growth line and significantly lower than historical levels, with new export orders also declining [5] Group 2: Demand Signals - The July PMI indicates potential marginal slowdown in exports, with high-frequency data showing signs of weakening exports [7] - The import throughput at the Port of Los Angeles has decreased, reflecting a drop in shipping rates for routes to the U.S. [7] - South Korea's export data for the first 20 days of July shows a year-on-year decline of 2.2%, contrasting with a previous increase of 8.3% [7] Group 3: Price Trends - The "anti-involution" trend has led to rising price expectations in upstream markets, but the sustainability of these price increases is uncertain due to weak demand [8] - The index for major raw material purchase prices rose to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, surpassing the increase in factory prices [6] - Recent government policies aimed at curbing low-price competition may impact the future dynamics of production capacity and pricing in key industries [8]