Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold has surpassed $3,500 per ounce, reaching a historical high, with a year-to-date increase of over 33% [1]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold and Silver Prices - The recent surge in London spot gold and silver prices is driven by multiple factors, primarily centered around safe-haven demand and expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [3]. - The expectation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, combined with rising geopolitical risks, is enhancing the safe-haven attributes of precious metals [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis and Future Projections - The COMEX gold has strongly broken through the key resistance level of $3,500 per ounce, with the next target potentially looking towards $3,550 per ounce, while support is noted around $3,450 per ounce [3]. - After reaching a historical high, COMEX silver has further upside potential, with the next key resistance level around $42, although short-term technical pullback risks should be monitored [3]. Group 3: Upcoming Economic Indicators - Investors should pay close attention to the upcoming August non-farm payroll data and the Federal Reserve's policy signals from the mid-month meeting, as these will significantly influence the direction of precious metals [3].

贵金属板块早盘涨幅排名 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达向记者表示，美联储降息预期持续发酵，成为支撑贵金属走强的重要基础。 目前9月美联储降息概率仍维持在87%的高位，降息预期打压美元指数，显著提振了贵金属的金融属 性。与此同时，俄乌与中东地缘风险同步升级，为贵金属提供额外避险支撑。 展望后市，顾冯达认为，贵金属短期将维持偏强格局，基本面支撑主要来自三方面：一是美联储降息预 期持续升温；二是多地地缘风险推升避险情绪；三是技术突破后投机情绪高涨。投资者需要重点关注即 将公布的8月美国非农就业数据，以及本月中旬美联储议息会议政策信号。此外，由于白银兼具工业属 性与金融投机特征，其波动弹性更大，在投机资金推动下表现预计将优于黄金。 北京时间今日上午，COMEX黄金主力合约价格快速拉升，最高触及3552.4美元/盎司，日内涨幅超1%， 越过8月高点再创历史新高，今年以来累计涨幅扩大至约35%。 伦敦现货黄金价格同样短期攀升，最高触及3486.16美元/盎司，距离今年4月22日3500美元的历史高点 仅相差不到1%。 | < W | 伦敦金现 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Market Performance - A-shares continued strong performance with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a high of 3879.05 points, closing at 3862.65 points, up 0.12% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.11% and 0.55% respectively [2] Gold Market - The precious metals sector saw significant gains, with international gold prices reaching new highs; COMEX gold peaked at $3552 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of approximately 35% [6][8] - London spot gold prices also rose, reaching $3486.16 per ounce, just shy of the historical high of $3500 from April [8] - A-share gold stocks surged, with Western Gold hitting the daily limit, and several other stocks like Xiaocheng Technology and Hunan Gold also showing strong gains [8][9] AI Computing Sector - The AI computing sector exhibited mixed performance; stocks like Xuanji Information and Liyang Chip hit the daily limit, while Cambrian experienced a decline of nearly 3% [10][11] - Cambrian's stock fluctuated significantly, dropping over 8% before stabilizing to a decrease of 2.98% by midday [11][12] - Reports indicated that rumors about Alibaba purchasing 150,000 Cambrian GPUs were unfounded [12] Alibaba's Market Activity - Alibaba's stock surged over 16% in Hong Kong, with a market capitalization increase of approximately HKD 400 billion, reaching a total market value of HKD 2.59 trillion [15][16] - The company reported a revenue of RMB 247.65 billion for Q1 of the 2026 fiscal year, with a net profit of RMB 43.12 billion, reflecting a 76% year-on-year increase [15][17] - Alibaba plans to invest RMB 380 billion over three years in AI infrastructure, which is expected to drive demand for computing power [17] Innovative Drug Sector - The innovative drug sector saw significant activity, with MicroPort Medical rising over 14% and achieving a year-to-date increase of over 109% [18] - MicroPort's new stent technology demonstrated clinical advantages, reducing treatment duration and complications [18] - The approval of 43 innovative drugs in the first half of the year indicates a growing focus on drug development in China, with the biotech index showing a year-to-date increase of over 101% [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have returned to $3,400, indicating a cyclical nature in the market despite ongoing uncertainties such as unresolved trade conflicts and geopolitical risks [1] - The gold market is characterized by a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with $3,300 serving as a central pivot point, where bulls currently have a slight advantage [1] - There is an emphasis on the importance of letting go of non-mainstream trading trends and reducing pressure on oneself when making trading decisions [1] Group 2 - The article highlights that the interest rate decision remains undecided, contributing to market volatility [1] - It suggests that excessive defensiveness can lead to hesitation in trading, advocating for a more relaxed approach to entering and exiting trades [1] - The overall sentiment reflects a need for traders to reconcile with their strategies and avoid overthinking their decisions [1]

Group 1 - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.32%, Nasdaq up 0.21%, and S&P 500 up 0.24%, reaching both intraday and closing historical highs [1] - Technology stocks showed mixed performance, with Intel rising over 2%, while Nvidia fell 0.09% and dropped over 5% in after-hours trading due to disappointing data center revenue [1] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September increased to 88.7%, as the New York Fed President stated the need to observe data before making decisions [1] Group 2 - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell sharply by 2.58%, with Meituan experiencing a significant drop of 9.7% post-earnings [1] - The electric vehicle sector saw declines across the board, with Li Auto down over 8%, Xpeng down nearly 7%, and NIO down over 5% [1] - Major e-commerce players also faced losses, with JD.com down over 3% and Alibaba down 1.58% [1] Group 3 - Nvidia's weak data center revenue may dampen sentiment in the tech sector, although its Q3 revenue guidance of $54 billion exceeded expectations [1] - Despite high expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, tariff threats and geopolitical risks continue to disrupt the market [1]

Report Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Asphalt: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The energy market is influenced by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels. Different energy products show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4][5] Summary by Product Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with the SC10 contract dropping 3.3% intraday. From August 27, the US imposed a 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil, and Indian refineries will reduce Russian oil purchases after October. Brent crude near $70/barrel has priced in the positive impact of Russian oil supply risks, and oil may turn to a sideways trend before geopolitical risks further intensify [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - After a significant oil price correction, fuel - related futures declined under pressure. As of the end of July, Singapore's marine fuel sales and China's bonded marine fuel bunker demand decreased year - on - year, but domestic refinery production enthusiasm was also low, with supply down 19% year - on - year. Fuel oil inventories in Singapore and Fujairah decreased, and the inventory pressure eased. High - sulfur resources are supported by geopolitical premiums, and the FU crack spread is still supported [3] Asphalt - After experiencing an unexpected increase in September production and a significant oil price decline, asphalt showed strong resistance in the oil products market, and the crack spread strengthened. In August, the shipment volume of sample refineries increased by 8% year - on - year, and leading indicators related to demand were positive, indicating potential demand. Factory and social inventories decreased, and low inventories supported prices. The BU2510 contract was supported at 3470 yuan/ton, and the crack spread rebounded significantly today [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The international LPG market rebounded due to import demand, and domestic arrivals continued to increase. With low - cost imported goods in the early stage, sales pressure was limited. The naphtha - propane spread remained at an advantageous level, and high chemical demand could be maintained in the short term. The spot market's negative pressure has been released, and the market is in a repair phase. In the long term, overseas production increase pressure exists, causing the far - month contracts to be under pressure, resulting in a near - strong and far - weak market structure [5]

KitcoMetals网站：美联储政策的鸽派转变成为贵金属潜在上涨的支撑 转自：新华财经 徽商期货：预计下半年黄金或区间震荡为主 中信期货： 鸽派市场氛围支撑贵⾦属震荡⾛强 关于权益市场强势的影响 申银万国期货：金银整体或在降息预期升温下呈现偏强走势 法国兴业银行：尽管地缘局势降温，但金价仍得到良好支撑 编辑：郭洲洋 【机构观点分析】 徽商期货研报观点认为，在鲍威尔终于松口对9月降息表示出开放态度之后，市场风险偏好回归，风险 资产和黄金上涨。在四季度政策验证之前，降息预期成为现阶段贵金属交易的重点。但目前市场已充分 定价9月降息预期，重点关注美联储官员发言，以及点阵图情况，若未释放更鸽派的讯号，贵金属可能 面临一定调整压力。此外，关税、地缘局势不确定性降低，避险情绪释放。预计2025年下半年黄金或区 间震荡为主。 中信期货观点认为，本周一市场仍处于杰克逊霍尔会议后的鸽派氛围中，贵⾦属震荡⾛强，但国内权益 市场加速上涨，⻛偏维持较⾼仍然吸引资⾦，贵⾦属上涨幅度受限。本周重点经济数据较少，重点关注 下周美国劳动⼒市场数据，在此之前降息预期或维持积极，贵⾦属市场有望延续震荡偏强⾛势。中期对 黄金趋势保持乐观，但提示 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年08月26日 (原油) 下半年以来全球原油去库2%、成品油累库2.9%，总体石油库存小幅下降0.2%基本持平，暂未延续一 李度2.5%、二季度2.2%的累库速度，平衡表预估的三季度供需盈余放大未得到证实，体现出旺季需 求的超预期韧性，鲍威尔在央行年会的讲话亦提升9月降息预期，风险资产情绪相应受到提振。当前 原油期货及期权基金净多持仓已降至区间低位,油价对地缘风险仍相对敏感,上周五特朗普表示若 两周内俄乌不举行直接会晤仍将加大制裁力度，单边价格短期仍以偏强看待。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属震荡。美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会讲话表示风险平衡变化可能要求调整政 策立场，市场定价9月降息基本板上钉钉，不过美联储官员表态存分歧,后续经济走向仍存不确定 性。国际金银处于震荡趋势之中，区间上方存关键阻力，维持回调买入多头思路。 【铜】 隔夜沪铜阴线调整，短线铜价受美联储9月降息概率、国内精铜消费替代与2509期权到期推涨至 7.95万上方。关注今日现铜报价。美国将铜列入2025关键矿物清单，可使相关项目更有资格获得联 邦资金支持或适用简化许可 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Fuel Oil: Oscillating with an upward bias [2] - Asphalt: Oscillating [2] - Polyester: Oscillating with an upward bias [4] - Rubber: Oscillating with an upward bias [4] - Methanol: Oscillating [6] - Polyolefins: Oscillating in a narrow range [7] - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): Oscillating with a downward bias [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The instability of Russian energy facilities has increased, and the progress of the peace agreement lacks a clear timeline. The market has re - priced geopolitical risks, leading to an oscillating rebound in oil prices [1]. - The sanctions on Iran by the US have affected the arrival and delivery of fuel oil cargoes. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has weakened, and the high - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure persists. The FU contract is subject to significant sentiment fluctuations and is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [2]. - In August, the actual demand for asphalt was lower than expected. In September, the demand is expected to increase, and the production of asphalt will remain stable. The price will depend on the actual demand [2]. - The improvement in demand expectations has brought positive support to the polyester chain. Short - term supply contractions due to unexpected maintenance of PX and TA, along with the slow recovery of pessimistic sentiment in the crude oil market, have led to a slight price rebound, and there is still room for further increase. The high operating load of ethylene glycol and the reduction of port inventory are beneficial to its price [4]. - The 13th typhoon has affected the supply of natural rubber, and the raw material prices are relatively firm. The export of tires has increased, providing support for demand. The short - term rubber price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias. The planned maintenance of butadiene rubber production facilities will improve the fundamentals, and the butadiene price will oscillate with an upward bias [4][6] - The domestic methanol supply is at a phased low due to multiple device overhauls, and the supply will gradually recover. The short - term arrival of overseas methanol will remain high, but it will decrease in the long term. The methanol price is expected to oscillate [6]. - The production of polyolefins will remain high, and the demand is gradually warming up. The fundamentals are not highly contradictory, and the price will oscillate in a narrow range [7]. - The domestic demand for PVC is gradually recovering, but exports will be weakened by India's anti - dumping policy. The price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices continued to rise. Trump threatened sanctions on Russia and India. The Novoshakhtinsk refinery in Russia caught fire, and the Friendship Pipeline was attacked. India's crude oil imports in July decreased. The instability of Russian energy facilities and geopolitical risks have led to an oscillating rebound in oil prices [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the fuel oil futures prices rose. US sanctions on Iran and the ample supply of arbitrage cargoes have affected the market. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has weakened, and the high - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure persists. The FU contract is subject to sentiment fluctuations and is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [2] - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the asphalt futures price rose. In August, the demand was lower than expected, but it is expected to increase in September. The production of asphalt will be stable, and the price depends on the actual demand [2] - **Polyester**: On Monday, the polyester futures prices showed mixed trends. The demand improvement and supply contractions due to unexpected maintenance have brought positive support. The price of PX and TA is expected to rise further, and the ethylene glycol price is also supported [4] - **Rubber**: On Monday, the rubber futures prices rose. The typhoon has affected the supply, and the tire export has increased, supporting the demand. The short - term rubber price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias, and the butadiene price will also oscillate with an upward bias [4][6] - **Methanol**: On Monday, the methanol spot prices showed differences. The domestic supply is at a phased low and will gradually recover. The short - term arrival of overseas methanol will remain high but decrease in the long term. The methanol price is expected to oscillate [6] - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the polyolefin spot prices showed differences. The production will remain high, and the demand is gradually warming up. The price will oscillate in a narrow range [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Monday, the PVC market prices increased. The domestic demand is gradually recovering, but exports will be weakened. The price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical products on August 26, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes [8] 3.3 Market News - Norway's Equinor discovered additional oil and gas resources near the Troll oil field in the North Sea, with an estimated total resource volume of 100,000 - 1.1 million cubic meters, equivalent to 600,000 - 6.9 million barrels of recoverable oil equivalent [11] - Nigeria's NNPC stated that almost all pipeline theft has been eliminated through the coordination of defense and intelligence agencies [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc [13][15][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts for various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc [27][29][33] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts for various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc [40][42][45] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc [58][60][63] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report presents the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, etc [66][67][69] 3.5 Research Team Member Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and professional titles in the energy - chemical research field [72][73][74]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Gold and silver rebounded. At the Jackson Hole meeting last week, Powell's statement was considered a dovish stance, enhancing the expectation of a rate cut in September. The rebound of US inflation data in July and positive signals from US - Russia negotiations reduced geopolitical risks, putting pressure on gold and silver. The non - farm payrolls data in July was worse than expected and the previous value was significantly revised down. The Fed's internal views are divided, and Trump's personnel appointments affect market expectations of the Fed. Although there are multi - party progress in trade negotiations, the overall trade environment is still deteriorating. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill continues to boost the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold holdings. The long - term drivers of gold still provide support, and currently, gold and silver may show a relatively strong trend as the expectation of a rate cut rises [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 779.92 and 782.32 respectively, with daily increases of 0.74 (0.09%) and 0.84 (0.11%). The current prices of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 9348.00 and 9371.00 respectively, with daily decreases of 46.00 (-0.49%) and 43.00 (-0.46%) [2] - **Position and Volume**: The positions of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 180151 and 140282 respectively, and the trading volumes are 226253 and 52290 respectively. The positions of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 322774 and 240493 respectively, and the trading volumes are 631045 and 145892 respectively [2] - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The spot premium and discount of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are - 4.58 and - 6.98 respectively, and that of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 16.00 and - 7.00 respectively [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D and London Gold are 775.34 and 774.20 respectively, with daily changes of 3.71 (0.48%) and - 2.57 (-0.33%). The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Silver T + D and London Silver are 9364.00 and 38.56 respectively, with daily changes of 182.00 (1.98%) and - 0.33 (-0.85%) [2] - **Price Ratios**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2510,沪银2512 - 沪银2510, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai Gold/London Gold, and Shanghai Silver/London Silver are 2.40, 23, 82.80, 7.17, and 7.55 respectively, compared with previous values of 2.30, 20, 84.04, 7.12, and 7.34 [2] Inventory - **Domestic and Overseas Inventories**: The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold is 37,515 kg (an increase of 60.00 kg), and the silver inventory is 1,113,641 kg (an increase of 4,518.00 kg). The current COMEX gold inventory is 38,563,780 ounces (a decrease of 32.15 ounces), and the silver inventory is 508,783,339 ounces (an increase of 296409 ounces) [2] Relevant Market Indicators - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 98.4262, 6439.32, 4.28, 68.2, and 7.1581 respectively, with changes of 0.72%, - 0.43%, 0.47%, 0.01%, and - 0.18% compared with the previous values [2] - **Derivative Product Positions**: The current positions of the SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons (an increase of 1.00 ton). The current net positions of CFTC speculators in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895 respectively, with changes of 481 and - 1451 compared with the previous values [2] 4. Macroeconomic News - Trump met with South Korea's President Lee Jae - myung at the White House. Trump said he doesn't mind renegotiating the trade agreement with South Korea and is considering ordering some ships from South Korea [2] - The Trump administration outlined a plan to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products, targeting products entering the consumer market or being withdrawn from warehouses after 12:01 am Eastern Daylight Time on August 27, 2025 [2] - The US added minerals such as copper and potash to the 2025 critical minerals list. The draft list has been published in the Federal Register for a 30 - day public comment period [2] - In July, the annualized sales volume of new homes in the US decreased by 0.6% to 652,000 units, exceeding the market expectation of 630,000 units. The median price of new homes decreased by 5.9% year - on - year to $403,800 [3]