Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around 1002 CNY per gram, with a latest price of 1003.54 CNY per gram, reflecting a decline of 0.60% [1] - The highest price reached was 1010.99 CNY per gram, while the lowest was 1001.86 CNY per gram, indicating a short-term oscillating trend for gold [1] Group 2 - Allies of Ukraine announced significant progress in defense strategies during the 15th "Volunteer Alliance" meeting in Paris, expressing willingness to provide international guarantees if a peace agreement is reached [2] - The meeting included representatives from 27 European countries, Canada, and NATO officials, discussing plans for U.S.-led ceasefire monitoring and direct involvement in peacekeeping [2] - A joint statement confirmed ongoing long-term military support for Ukraine, serving as the first line of defense post-peace agreement, although binding commitments are still to be finalized [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US raided Venezuela, escalating geopolitical risks; OPEC+ stated that eight member countries will suspend increasing oil production in Q1 2026. The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, mainly driven by speculative funds. The futures market is leading the price discovery mechanism, and although there are concerns about bubbles, the PX fundamentals are supported. In 2026, the market is expected to remain tight, driven by India's new PTA production capacity and organic demand growth. The PX-naphtha spread has widened to $360, and the PX-mixed xylene spread has reached $155, significantly improving the economics of aromatics extraction. The PX market is at a critical juncture where speculative sentiment and fundamentals are intertwined. Domestically, PTA maintains high operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November. The high gasoline spread still supports aromatics. The commissioning of new polyester plants has pushed the polyester load to a high level, and PTA consumption remains high, with an increasing market hoarding willingness, and the basis has strengthened rapidly. Although polyester demand has weakened seasonally in China, the production cuts by polyester factories are not enough to form a negative feedback [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Index Changes - PTA spot price increased from 5030 to 5080, with a change of 50; MEG domestic price rose from 3640 to 3666, up 26; PTA closing price increased from 5046 to 5150, a rise of 104; MEG closing price went up from 3732 to 3838, an increase of 106; 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price increased by 45; short fiber basis increased from 38 to 40, up 2; 2 - 3 spread increased from 4 to 6, up 10; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, up 6; 1.4D direct-spun and imitation large chemical fiber price difference increased from 1235 to 1280, up 45; East China water bottle chip price increased by 61; hot-filled polyester bottle chip price increased by 61; carbonated polyester bottle chip price increased by 61; outer disk water bottle chip price increased from 795 to 800, up 5; bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 486 to 495, up 10; T32S pure polyester yarn price increased from 10450 to 10500, up 50; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3940 to 3945, up 5; polyester-cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged; cotton 328 price increased from 15475 to 15520, up 45; polyester-cotton yarn profit decreased from 1234 to 1187, down 47; primary three-dimensional hollow (with silicon) price decreased from 7215 to 7210, down 5; hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 495 to 438, down 56; primary low-melting staple fiber price remained unchanged [2]. 2. Market Conditions - Short fiber: The short fiber main futures rose 38 to 6532. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production plants fluctuated slightly, and traders' prices followed the futures. Downstream purchasing intention was low, while the replenishment of futures and spot merchants increased, and the on-site transactions were okay. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi-gloss natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6430 - 6650 yuan for cash on delivery and tax included self-pickup, 6550 - 6770 yuan in the North China market for cash on delivery and tax included delivery, and 6450 - 6680 yuan in the Fujian market for cash on delivery and tax included delivery [2]. - Bottle chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 6000 - 6110 yuan/ton, with the average price rising 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle chip futures were running warmly, the cost-side support increased, most of the supply-side quotations were raised, the market negotiation atmosphere was relatively dull, downstream end-users restocked for rigid demand, and the market negotiation center shifted slightly upward [2]. 3. Industry Load and Production and Sales - The direct-spun short fiber load (weekly) decreased from 88.84% to 86.77%, a decrease of 2.07%; polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 53.00% to 77.00%, an increase of 24.00%; polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00%; recycled cotton-type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [2][3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PTA market has cost support and is in the process of inventory reduction, with a narrow upward trend in prices and a strengthening of the spot basis. The demand is gradually weakening, and the processing fee has declined. The PX market has experienced a sharp increase, driven by speculative funds, but there is also fundamental support, and the market is expected to remain tight in 2026. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the polyester load remains high, with increased market inventory hoarding willingness and a rapidly strengthening basis [2]. - The MEG market shows a continuous upward trend in futures prices, with the spot price in Zhangjiagang rising accordingly, but the basis negotiation is weakening. Overseas MEG device maintenance plans are increasing, but the market supply pressure continues to increase due to new device production. The price is difficult to get effective support under the backdrop of falling coal prices, but it may be supported by domestic policies in the context of carbon neutrality [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 421.7 yuan/barrel on January 5, 2026, to 428.2 yuan/barrel on January 6, 2026, with an increase of 6.50 yuan [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA - SC spread increased by 56.76 yuan, the PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0084. The PTA主力期价 rose from 5,046 yuan/ton to 5,150 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose from 5,030 yuan/ton to 5,080 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased by 46.9 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee increased by 7.1 yuan/ton. The PTA仓单数量 decreased by 2,238 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG主力期价 rose from 3,732 yuan/ton to 3,838 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread decreased by 0.2 yuan/ton. The MEG内盘 price rose from 3,640 yuan/ton to 3,666 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - **PX**: The PX operating rate remained at 87.87% [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA operating rate remained at 77.40% [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG operating rate increased from 60.81% to 60.87%, with an increase of 0.06% [2]. - **Polyester**: The polyester load decreased from 88.10% to 88.04%, with a decrease of 0.06% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow - **Polyester Filament**: The price of POY150D/48F rose by 25 yuan/ton, and its cash flow decreased by 27 yuan/ton. The price of FDY150D/96F decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and its cash flow decreased by 62 yuan/ton. The price of DTY150D/48F remained unchanged, and its cash flow decreased by 52 yuan/ton. The long - filament sales rate decreased from 50% to 5%, with a decrease of 45% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber rose by 45 yuan/ton, and its cash flow decreased by 7 yuan/ton. The short - fiber sales rate decreased from 53% to 20%, with a decrease of 33% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The price of semi - bright chips rose by 25 yuan/ton, and its cash flow decreased by 27 yuan/ton. The chip sales rate remained at 47% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest was restarted, which had stopped at the beginning of last week [4].

今日周三(1月7日)亚盘时段，白银td目前交投于19458一线上方，今日开盘于19465元/千克，截至发稿， 白银td暂报19580元/千克，上涨1.75%，最高触及20209元/千克，最低下探19282元/千克，目前来看，白 银td盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 被推翻的马杜罗政权背景下，美国总统特朗普计划在本周晚些时候在白宫会见多家石油公司高管，讨论 如何快速重振委内瑞拉陷入困境的石油产业。 【最新白银td行情解析】 日图来看，白银td价格昨日高涨6%，今日价格延续上一日涨势，涨超3%，一小时MACD柱形图向上拉 升，预示目前多头动能占主导，相对强弱指数(RSI)在日图上进入买超区，市场活跃度高，警惕回落风 险，白银td走势下方关注18500-19000支撑；上方关注20000-25000阻力。 据知情人士透露，这次会议可能于周五举行，重点在于提升委内瑞拉的原油产量。该国石油基础设施因 长期缺乏投资而严重老化，出口量已从二十年前的每日超过300万桶锐减至如今不到100万桶。 美国政府官员认为，通过引入新设备和技术，可以迅速提振石油生产。目前，雪佛龙公司是唯一在美国 运营的委内瑞拉油田巨头，而埃克森美 ...

摘要今日周三(1月7日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价1004.21元/克，较前一交易日下跌5.40美元，跌幅 0.53%，日内高位回落。当日开盘价1009.70元/克，最高价1011.03元/克，最低价1002.00元/克。 近期地缘不确定性显著上行，美国对委内瑞拉的军事行动引发全球风险偏好回落，避险资金加速配置贵 金属；多家机构与研究人士指出，国际形势动荡对金价的短期与中期支撑均在强化。 中长期看，地缘风险与"制度性不确定性"被纳入黄金定价框架的核心变量，黄金作为"无对手风险"的储 备资产地位进一步凸显，配置需求具有韧性。 世界黄金协会数据显示，2025年11月各国央行净买入约45吨，1—11月累计接近297吨；展望2026年，瑞 银预计全球央行净购金或达约950吨，延续近年高位。央行增持强化了黄金的中长期需求基础与价格韧 性。 一方面，黄金ETF与配置资金流入回升；另一方面，国内春节前后传统旺季对金饰与实物形成支撑，但 高金价对首饰销量形成一定抑制，渠道周转与借金业务趋于谨慎，价格传导呈现"投资强、消费弱"的结 构性分化。 瑞银财富管理预计金价在2026年一季度末有望上探5000美元/盎司，若政治或金融风险 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 每日精选： 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 2026 年 1 月 7 日星期三 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhud ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年01月07日 (原油) 夜盘油价遭遇回调，近期油价呈现剧烈波动特点。伊朗局势持续紧张但目前仍在可控范围内，市场 对地缘风险紧张情绪逐渐趋弱,盘面呈现高位卖压与空头增仓。地缘风险能否有效提振油价,取决 于其是否对供应造成实质性减量，否则对油价的影响将仅限于短期波动，且盘面反应力度会逐步减 弱。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属延续强势。美国对委内瑞拉军事行动以及特朗普一系列强势言论体现全球地缘乱局延 续，贵金属牛市逻辑不改，资金情绪主导剧烈波动，短期关注前高位置能否再度实现突破，维持多 头参与思路。今晚关注美国ADP就业、ISM非制造业PMI以及职位空缺数据。 【铜】 隔夜铜价记录位置震荡，沪铜关注仓量变动。花旗上调短线铜目标位至1.4万美元、约10.8-10.9万 一线，中长线维持1.3万美元；高盛表示铜实际需求承压，不过走势关键在美伦价差，昨日两市价差 收窄到50美元。国内观铜走高到103665元，上海贴水20元，精废价差6100元。因跨年涨势快LME实 值期权多头履约密集，伦铜短线目标扩至1.35万美元。观望，前期2602期权组合策略减仓 ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/07 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/29 | 58.08 | 61.94 | 62.02 | - | 0.45 | -3.86 | 0.73 | 171.52 | 10.10 | 212.75 | 27.42 | | 2025/12/30 | 57.95 | 61.33 | 62.02 | - | 0.30 | -3.38 | 0.95 | 172.10 | 10.95 | 215.05 | 28.99 | | 2025/12/31 | 5 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-07 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着泰国和柬埔寨两国宣布停战，地缘风险因素弱化，东南亚橡胶供应回落预期消散， 利多驱动减弱。不过目前国内云南和海南天胶产区已进入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降， 而东南亚仍处于割胶旺季。同时胶市下游国内汽车产销数据偏乐观，12 月重卡销量数据好于预期。 在偏多氛围支撑下，本周二夜盘国内沪胶期货小幅收涨。预计本周三国内沪胶期货或维持震荡偏强 走势。 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In early 2026, the economic performance needs to be clarified, and domestic and foreign policies remain the focus. In 2025, there were concerns in both the US and Chinese economies. In the US, the focus was on the weak employment market and potential consumption risks, while in China, domestic demand was weak in Q3, and the recovery in Q4 under policy guidance needed to be observed. In the new year, the policy highlights affecting the US economy are the continuation of monetary easing and the intensity of subsequent fiscal spending. In China, the focus is on the effectiveness of stabilizing domestic demand and the policy efforts in promoting investment to stop falling and expanding the consumer market. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates slightly more than twice in 2026, currently a preventive rate cut. However, if the employment market weakens more than expected, such as a continuous rise in the unemployment rate, it will prompt the Fed to accelerate the rate - cut pace. Unconventional risks in 2026 come from the attitude of the newly - appointed Fed chair, and the impact of monetary policy in Q1 mainly depends on economic performance. There is an expectation of monetary policy easing in Q1, but it remains to be seen. In China, policies to stabilize growth will be gradually introduced at the beginning of the year. The first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in national subsidy funds for consumer goods trade - in programs in 2026 is less than the 81 billion yuan in the first batch in 2025. Based on the tone of the "two new policies" set by the Central Economic Work Conference, the overall investment rhythm in 2026 is expected to be more stable. The risk is that previous consumption demand has been released to some extent, and the high base in the first half of 2025 will put pressure on the year - on - year growth rate. Later, attention should be paid to the scale of the government's on - budget fiscal deficit, ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, and local government special bonds during the Two Sessions. At the beginning of the year, policy expectations are strong, but lacking specific data support, and overall sentiment is expected to fluctuate but remain relatively stable [2]. - Precious metals are fluctuating at high levels, and the upward trend has not been broken. Before the New Year's Day holiday, the prices of precious metals, gold and silver, fluctuated significantly, mainly due to some long - positions leaving the market and the adjustment of margins for COMEX gold and silver. After the holiday, with the increase in risk - aversion sentiment and investors re - entering the market, precious metal prices continued to rise in early January, and the previous high at the end of December needs to be broken. The grand narrative logic affecting precious metal prices has not changed. Frequent global geopolitical risks, alleviated but not eliminated tariff risks, dollar credit risks, government debt risks, and the Fed's continued rate - cut rhythm still have a bullish impact on precious metals. After a continuous rise in December, the silver price fluctuated significantly before the New Year's Day holiday, and the market sentiment recovered and became stronger again after the holiday. The mid - term upward trend of COMEX gold and silver has not been broken. The support for the COMEX gold main contract is around 4270 - 4300, and for the silver main contract, it is around 69 - 70. In the short term, the market sentiment after the holiday remains bullish, but the risks are that a too - rapid price increase may trigger another margin adjustment for COMEX gold and silver, and there is short - term pressure from the annual weight adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM). Therefore, gold and silver prices still face significant fluctuation risks. In early January, the market is still trading on geopolitical risks and monetary easing expectations. After the geopolitical risks ease, the market's focus will shift to the performance of US economic data and the corresponding changes in monetary policy expectations, which will affect short - term market fluctuations. In conclusion, at the beginning of the year, the gold and silver prices need to re - evaluate the influencing factors to determine the price direction after the short - term consolidation. It is expected to be bullish. The short - term support for the Shanghai gold main contract is 980, and for the Shanghai silver main contract, it is 17000 [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic - The Fed has no significant rate - cut expectation in January, and the market expects the next rate cut to be around March. New economic data in the US will be released in early January, including the ISM manufacturing PMI index, non - farm payroll data, and the unemployment rate. It is expected that the economic data will not affect the January monetary policy decision, and the probability of a rate cut in January is low. However, it will affect the probability of a rate cut in March, which is currently around 50%. As time passes, the expectation of a rate cut in March may change significantly under the influence of US economic data [6]. - US employment data is at risk of weakness, but the degree of weakness needs to be determined. Since the second half of 2025, the US labor market has continued to weaken. The monthly new non - farm payrolls have fluctuated significantly, and there have been months with negative new additions. The unemployment rate has gradually risen from a low of 4.1% in June 2025, especially rising to 4.6% in December. If this unemployment rate persists, it may trigger the Sahm Rule again. Therefore, the unemployment rate performance in the next two months is very important. If it rises further, it may accelerate the Fed's rate - cut pace [9]. - The upward amplitude of inflation is temporarily limited. Although inflation has risen in the second half of 2025, the amplitude is temporarily limited and does not currently affect the monetary policy rhythm. From this perspective, the short - term performance of the employment market has a more significant impact on monetary policy. In November 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of the US CPI and core CPI were 2.7% and 2.6% respectively, down from Q3 [13]. - The US manufacturing PMI index is at a low level. In the second half of 2025, the US manufacturing PMI index was at a low level. Overall, the cyclical pattern of the manufacturing PMI index is less obvious, and it fluctuates at a low level. In terms of inventory, the manufacturing inventory growth rate rebounded slightly in Q3, but the inventory growth rates of wholesalers and retailers declined, and there was no consistent inventory replenishment process. Therefore, it is difficult for the manufacturing industry to have an unexpectedly good recovery. Later, attention should be paid to whether the weakening impact of the previous government shutdown and the continuation of monetary policy easing in Q1 to Q2 will have a positive impact on inventory and the manufacturing industry [16]. - The medium - and long - term interest rates of US Treasury bonds are generally stable and have not declined significantly. Although the Fed cut interest rates continuously from Q3 to Q4 in 2025, driving down the short - term interest rate level, the long - term interest rate level remained generally stable. The 10 - year US Treasury bond interest rate fluctuated in a narrow range of 4.0% - 4.2% in Q4. Concerns about the sustainability of the sovereign debt of European and American governments and the weakening of the attractiveness of US Treasury bonds under the dollar credit risk have supported the performance of US Treasury bond interest rates. Precious metals have become more attractive as a safe - haven asset than the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, driving the continuous strength of gold and silver prices in December [20]. - The US dollar index is oscillating at a low level and is expected to gradually break out of the oscillation range. Since the second half of 2025, the US dollar index has stopped its continuous rapid decline and has been oscillating in a narrow range of 96 - 100. Whether the US dollar index can break out of the oscillation range depends on whether the US economy can gradually recover under the influence of monetary easing and whether the US can form a new dominant position to curb the risk of de - dollarization. Currently, such a trend has not been observed, and continuous attention should be paid to the performance of US economic data and whether the US's influence in the Americas region will be further strengthened [24]. - In China, the manufacturing PMI index rebounded in December 2025. After the Sino - US economic and trade relations became tense again in October 2025, the Chinese economy gradually recovered in November and December, and domestic policies also played a role in stabilizing growth. The implementation of policy - based financial tools led to a certain recovery in the manufacturing industry. Based on the December manufacturing PMI index, it is expected that the investment growth rate will recover to some extent. Attention should be paid to the industrial added value, investment, and consumption data to be released in the middle of the month [27]. - It is expected that the total new social financing in 2025 will reach 36 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of over 10%. The total new social financing in 2025 was relatively large, expected to reach 36 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the 32.3 trillion yuan in 2024. However, the growth structure and investment rhythm affected the annual economic performance. The increase in social financing in 2025 mainly came from local government bonds, and the year - on - year increase in RMB loans decreased. The overall investment rhythm of social financing also showed a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half, with the single - month new social financing in August - October significantly less than the same period last year. Attention should be paid to whether the implementation of policy - based financial tools in Q4 2025 will drive an increase in the credit growth rate [31]. - In Q4 2025, the real - estate sales were weak, and housing prices declined month - on - month. The new and second - hand housing transactions in 2025 were significantly weaker than the same period last year, mainly in Q4. Although real - estate stabilization policies were continuously introduced from Q3 to Q4 in 2025, there were no unexpectedly large - scale reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts. The new and second - hand housing transactions declined in both volume and price compared to the same period last year, which will affect the real - estate investment performance at the beginning of 2026. Therefore, promoting infrastructure and manufacturing investment and stimulating consumption have become the focus of policies at the beginning of the year [34]. - In 2026, the first - batch funds for the trade - in program were released, and the annual investment rhythm is expected to be more even. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on Implementing the Large - scale Equipment Upgrading and Consumer Goods Trade - in Policy in 2026", officially releasing the national subsidy plan for 2026. The first - batch scale of 62.5 billion yuan to support consumer goods trade - in is less than the 81 billion yuan in the first batch in 2025. However, based on the tone of the "two new policies" set by the Central Economic Work Conference, compared with the situation in 2025 when most of the funds were invested in the first three quarters, especially the first half, the overall investment rhythm in 2026 is expected to be more stable. Therefore, the smaller first - batch investment scale in 2026 does not mean a reduction in the annual scale. The scope of the trade - in subsidy has changed, and the subsidy standards have been further optimized. There is a new subsidy for purchasing new smart products, and the coverage has been expanded to include "elevator installation in old communities" and "off - line commercial facilities such as commercial complexes". However, the number of household appliance subsidy categories has been reduced from 12 to 6. For the subsidy amount, the car subsidy has been adjusted from a fixed amount to a percentage, the single - piece subsidy ceiling for household appliances has been adjusted from 2000 yuan to 1500 yuan, and only first - level energy - consuming products are eligible for the subsidy. The trade - in of electric bicycles and home - improvement consumer goods is no longer included. Overall, the subsidy is still at a certain scale and will help stabilize the consumer market in the new year, in line with the "insisting on domestic - demand - led and deeply implementing the special action to boost consumption" mentioned in the economic work conference. It is expected that the investment rhythm in 2026 will be more stable. The risk is that the implementation of the "two new policies" from the second half of 2024 to 2025 has released some consumption demand, and the high base in the first half of 2025 will put pressure on the year - on - year consumption growth rate [38][39]. - The profits of Chinese industrial enterprises improved from the end of Q3 to the beginning of Q4 in 2025 but weakened again in the second half of Q4. From July to September 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises improved, mainly due to the increase in the prices of some commodities driven by anti - involution. In October, the PPI growth rate did not further increase significantly, and the operating income growth rate of industrial enterprises also declined, affecting the profit performance of industrial enterprises. In November, the single - month profit of industrial enterprises was negative, dragging the cumulative year - on - year growth rate from January to November down to 0.1%, compared with a peak of 3.2% in September [40]. - The RMB has appreciated continuously against the US dollar, and the subsequent economic growth expectation remains the main influencing factor. Since Q4, the long - term Treasury bond yields in both China and the US have remained stable, so the yield spread has not changed significantly. In terms of economic growth expectations, the US has not shown obvious signs of recovery and is performing weakly. In China, investment and consumption have also declined. Therefore, there has been no significant change in economic growth expectations or Treasury bond yield levels. The Fed cut interest rates continuously from Q3 to Q4, while China did not adjust the benchmark interest rate. As a result, the RMB has appreciated against the US dollar, rising from around 7.12 to around 6.98 [43]. Precious Metals - In 2025, the annual increase in the SPDR gold holdings was significant. In 2025, the holdings of the world's largest physical gold fund, SPDR, ended four consecutive years of negative growth since 2021. The annual increase was about 198 tons, and the year - end holdings reached about 1070 tons. The increase in holdings mainly occurred in several stages: from early March to mid - April, from late May to late June, from late September to mid - October, and from late December [47]. - The annual increase in the SLV silver holdings was significant in 2025. The holdings of the physical silver fund, SLV, have had positive growth for the second consecutive year. In 2025, the increase was about 2068 tons, compared with 772 tons in 2024, which is also the largest annual increase in recent years except for 2020 when the increase was 6099 tons. From the perspective of physical fund holdings, the increase in price has boosted investment demand. However, neither the gold nor the silver physical fund holdings have returned to their previous peak levels. Therefore, there is still room for an increase in holdings. The increase in investment demand is usually complementary to the price trend and reinforces each other. Subsequently, the price trend will still affect the holdings, and an increase in holdings will in turn strengthen the price strength [50]. - The gold inventory in futures exchanges remained generally stable in December 2025. In December 2025, the changes in the COMEX futures inventory and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory were both small, showing a slight increase. However, there were significant changes in the inventories of the two exchanges in 2025. At the beginning of the year, due to market concerns about the US imposing tariffs on gold and silver, the inventory was transferred to COMEX. The COMEX inventory rose from about 550 tons at the end of 2024 to about 1247 tons in early October 2025 and then declined, reaching about 1132 tons at the end of December. The SHFE inventory rose from about 15 tons in May 2025 to 97.7 tons at the end of December [52]. - The COMEX silver inventory decreased in December, while the silver inventories in the SHFE and the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) increased slightly. The rapid increase in COMEX silver inventory started at the beginning of 2025, rising from about 9800 tons at the end of 2024 to about 16543 tons in early October 2025. At the same time, the maximum decline in the SHFE gold inventory in 2025 was about 900 tons, and it recovered slightly in December but remained at a low level overall. The SGE silver inventory was relatively stable, with a slight increase at the end of 2025 compared to the beginning. The domestic exchange inventories are at a low level, while the COMEX silver inventory is at a multi - year high. Concerns about tariff increases and the US adding silver to the critical minerals list have contributed to the increase in the COMEX silver inventory [55]. - Regarding the COMEX gold futures positions, although the gold price reached a new high at the end of December 2025, the total gold positions and non - commercial long positions increased, but they were lower than the levels at the gold price peak from late September to early October 2025. The non - commercial short positions were generally at a low level, and the market structure remained bullish. However, the non - commercial net long positions at the end of December were lower than those from September to early October, indicating a slightly weaker bullish sentiment [58]. - Regarding the COMEX silver futures positions, in December 2025, the silver price rose unexpectedly. The non - commercial short positions were at a low level and did not strongly resist the upward trend. The non - commercial long positions increased, but the increase was limited. The total positions remained generally stable from mid - November to December [61