陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 黑色建材日报 2025-12-01 黑色建材组 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 上周五铁矿石主力合约（I2601）收至 794.00 元/吨，涨跌幅-0.69 %（-5.50），持仓变化-23368 手，变 化至 39.10 万手。铁矿石加权持仓量 92.01 万手。现货青岛港 PB 粉 794 元/湿吨，折盘面基差 49.54 元 /吨，基差率 5.87%。 【策略观点】 供给方面，最新一期海外铁矿石发运量环比下降。发运端，澳洲、巴西发运量均有减量。主流矿山方面， 四大矿山均不同程度环比下行。非主流国家发运量增加至年内高位，近端到港量环比上行。需求方面，最 新一期钢联口径日均铁水产量 234.68 万吨，环比下降 1.6 万吨。受到需求走弱及利润下滑共同影响，检修 高炉数明显增多， ...

Core Insights - The article discusses strategies to improve the success rate of new stock subscriptions and the certainty of returns on the first day of listing [1][3] Group 1: Strategies for Improving Subscription Success Rate - Effective fund management is crucial to ensure sufficient capital for new stock subscriptions, as excessive funds may lower the success rate due to allocation based on subscription quantity [1] - Staying informed about new stock information, including company fundamentals, industry outlook, and financial status, aids in assessing investment value and enhances subscription success probability [3] - Choosing the right subscription timing by analyzing historical data and market trends can help avoid peak periods, typically selecting a time frame from two days before the issuance to the subscription day [3] Group 2: Techniques to Enhance First-Day Return Certainty - Utilizing multiple accounts for subscription can increase the chances of success if conditions permit [3] - Participating in offline subscriptions generally yields a higher success rate due to the larger participation of institutional and major individual investors [3] - Understanding market sentiment is vital, as positive market conditions encourage more investors to subscribe, thereby increasing success rates [3] Group 3: Long-Term Investment Considerations - Long-term holding of fundamentally strong companies with growth potential can yield satisfactory returns, even if the initial subscription success rate is low [3] - Diversifying investments across different stocks or sectors can mitigate risks and enhance overall return certainty [3] - Continuous monitoring of market performance post-listing is essential, as both first-day performance and subsequent market behavior are critical for strategy adjustments [3] Group 4: Knowledge and Experience Sharing - Learning investment knowledge and exchanging experiences with other investors can elevate overall investment skills, thereby improving subscription success rates and first-day return certainty [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Xiangyang Bearing surged to the daily limit of 14.76 CNY per share, coinciding with a desperate plea from a shareholder seeking help to fund his sick child's medical expenses, which sparked widespread discussion and emotional responses among investors [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On November 28, the stock initially opened lower but quickly rose to the daily limit, with a net inflow of 444.5 million CNY from institutional investors, indicating strong capital involvement [3]. - Many investors expressed their gratitude towards the "main force" in online communities, with some planning to buy shares on December 1 to show support [3]. Group 2: Emotional and Ethical Considerations - The plea from the shareholder may have touched the "sympathy" or "emotions" of some investors, potentially triggering a "retail investor rally" or a chain reaction in market sentiment [5]. - There are concerns regarding the authenticity of the plea, with some arguing that using a child's medical funds for stock investment is a highly irresponsible gamble [4][9]. Group 3: Company Fundamentals and Market Dynamics - Despite the stock's sharp rise, it is noted that Xiangyang Bearing is currently in a loss-making position, suggesting that the price increase may be more influenced by market sentiment and speculative trading rather than the company's fundamentals [9]. - The incident highlights the phenomenon of "emotional trading" in the A-share market, where stock prices can be driven by narratives and sentiments rather than underlying financial performance [5][9].

权 益 量 化 研 究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 价量匹配改善，情绪指标维持震荡 ——量化择时周报 20251130 相关研究 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com | 1．情绪模型观点：市场情绪得分周内继续回落 4 | | --- | | 1.1 从分项指标出发：价量匹配改善、主力资金回流，情绪指标维持震 | | 荡、分化 5 | | 2．其他择时模型观点：美容护理短期得分快速提升，价值风 | | 格与小盘风格占优 10 | | 2.1 美容护理行业短期得分快速提升，价值风格与小盘风格占优 10 | | 3．风险提示 14 | 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共15页 简单金融 成就梦想 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 量 化 策 略 - ⚫ 市场情绪得分周内继续回落： ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 11 月 28 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪回暖，钢矿震荡企稳 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡走高，录得 0.71%日涨幅，移仓换月中，量仓收 缩。现阶段，供需双弱局面下基本面表现尚可，库存延续去化，但需求 季节性走弱，现实格局依然偏弱，钢价继续承压，相对利好则是估值偏 低，短期走势延续低位震荡运行态势，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.27%日涨幅，移仓换月中，量仓 收缩。目前来看，热卷供应压力未退，而需求有所走弱，基本面表现偏 弱， ...

黑色建材日报 2025-11-28 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3093 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 6 元/吨（-0.19%）。当日注册仓单 37919 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 106.9617 万手，环比减少 131083 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3200 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3240 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3293 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 11 元/吨（-0.33%）。 当日注册仓单 113732 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 87.6319 万手，环比减少 58870 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall market sentiment has improved significantly, but there remains a notable divergence in various sentiment indicators, indicating a complex market environment [3]. Group 1: Market Risk Assessment - The risk score for the stock market, as per the Zhongtai Asset Management risk system, is 52.77, an increase from 45.79 last month, driven by marginal improvements in market sentiment [2]. - The valuation of the CSI 300 index has slightly decreased to 60.68 from 64.74, remaining in a relatively high range over the past six months, with significant valuation disparities across different sectors [2]. - The market expectation score has decreased to 52.00 from 55.00, reflecting weaker macroeconomic data, particularly in fixed asset investment growth [2]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Among the 28 Shenwan first-level industries, sectors such as steel, electronics, real estate, and defense continue to have valuations above the historical 60th percentile, while agriculture and non-bank financials remain below the 10th percentile [2]. - The consumer market showed a slight rebound in October, with retail sales growing by 4.28%, although this was a decrease of 0.22% from the previous month [8]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment growth has declined to -1.7%, with significant weakness in real estate and building materials, while industrial value-added growth remains stable at 4.9% year-on-year [7][8]. - The overall liquidity in the market is under pressure, with social financing and M2 growth rates declining, indicating a need for close monitoring of these trends [10][11].

Market Overview - The recent market adjustment is viewed as a monthly correction within an ongoing upward trend, rather than an end to the current market rally [5][9] - Bitcoin has stabilized, rebounding 10% from its lowest point, serving as an indicator of market sentiment and risk appetite [6][7] Currency Analysis - The RMB/USD exchange rate has reached 7.08, marking a new high in over a year, with the RMB appreciating nearly 3% against the USD this year [10] - The decline of the USD index by 7.51% this year, with a maximum drawdown of 12.67%, is a factor in the RMB's appreciation, which is managed to support exports [11][12] - There is a divergence in the market regarding when exporters, who have been holding onto USD, will begin to convert their earnings back to RMB, although there are currently no signs of a rush to convert [14] Year-End Market Dynamics - As the year-end approaches, market behavior may become more complex due to various motivations, such as year-end ranking and profit-taking strategies [15] - The focus should remain on fundamental principles, including actual performance, growth, and valuation, rather than mere fluctuations in market prices [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways with a Weak Bias [3] - Coking Coal: Sideways with a Weak Bias [5] - Coke: Sideways [5] - Thermal Coal: Sideways [7] 2. Core Views - The market sentiment for steel has declined, and steel prices are oscillating within a range. After weeks of continuous inventory reduction, the inventory pressure on finished products has been significantly alleviated. The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials have improved, and the inventory pressure has been well - relieved under the situation of weak supply and demand. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has significantly narrowed. The supply and demand of plates are both strong, but high inventory still suppresses plate prices [1]. - The spot supply - demand of iron ore is tight, and ore prices are oscillating upwards. This week, iron ore shipments have slightly declined, port inventories have continued to rise, and the daily average pig iron output has slightly decreased month - on - month. Steel mill profits have continued to decline and triggered production cuts. High supply has not yet been transmitted to ore prices [2]. - The supply - demand of coking coal and coke is becoming more relaxed, and prices are oscillating. The coking coal market has weakened, driving down the sentiment in the coke market. The supply of coking coal has slowly recovered, and its trading has been significantly pressured [3][4]. - The procurement of thermal coal for essential needs is maintained, and coal prices are oscillating. In the medium - to - long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3099 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coils closed at 3304 yuan/ton. The spot trading of steel was average yesterday, weaker than the day before [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: After weeks of inventory reduction, the inventory pressure on finished products has been relieved. The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials have improved, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has narrowed. The supply and demand of plates are strong, but high inventory suppresses prices. Attention should be paid to production cuts and profit changes [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [1] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices oscillated upwards yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. The cumulative turnover of iron ore at major national ports was 1.033 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.95%. The cumulative turnover of forward - looking spot was 1.542 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.55% [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: This week, iron ore shipments slightly declined, port inventories continued to rise, the daily average pig iron output decreased slightly month - on - month, and steel mill profits declined and triggered production cuts. High supply has not yet affected ore prices. Attention should be paid to the progress of subsequent iron ore negotiations [2]. - **Strategy**: Sideways with a weak bias for single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures oscillated yesterday. The coking coal market has weakened, driving down the coke market sentiment. The supply of coking coal has slowly recovered, and its trading has been pressured. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is around 1000 - 1020 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply of coking coal has slightly increased, and supply - demand contradictions are gradually accumulating. The cost support for coke has weakened, and the market sentiment is weak. Attention should be paid to coking profits and cost changes [4]. - **Strategy**: Sideways with a weak bias for coking coal; sideways for coke; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are oscillating strongly. The shipments of large stations and power plants are stable, and some coal mines have smooth sales. The supply is gradually tightening, supporting coal prices. At ports, the market sentiment is weak, and downstream procurement demand is cold. The inventory at northern ports has rapidly accumulated, and the pressure on traders to sell has increased. The import coal bidding price has decreased, and the market expectation for January is not good [6]. - **Demand and Logic**: Recently, there has been more wait - and - see sentiment, and coal prices are oscillating. In the medium - to - long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [6]. - **Strategy**: Sideways [7]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Expectations**: The divergence in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in December has increased, with dovish officials citing a weak labor market as support for cuts, while hawkish officials express concerns over inflation rebound, leading to increased policy uncertainty [1][3][4][5] - **Domestic Macro Economy**: The LPR remained unchanged in November, indicating that the central bank believes there is still room for monetary policy, but the marginal efficiency is declining, making further easing unlikely this year [1][7][8] Commodity Market Insights - **Black Commodities**: There is a significant divergence in the performance of black commodities. Coal and coke prices have dropped sharply, with coking coal down 9% and coke over 4%. In contrast, iron ore has shown relative strength, increasing by approximately 1.2% [1][9][12] - **Iron Ore Market**: Iron ore has performed better than other commodities recently, but with increased shipments and port arrivals, supply-demand conflicts may intensify, leading to potential price volatility in the short term [1][12] - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market remains weak, with the gold-silver ratio hovering around 81. Factors such as internal divisions within the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions have limited upward momentum for gold [1][15] - **Oil Market**: The oil market is under pressure from a mid-term supply surplus, with IEA predicting continued oversupply in global oil markets this year and next, leading to a bearish outlook for oil prices [1][20] Specific Commodity Analysis - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is facing increased supply due to domestic production recovery and rising imports from Mongolia. The coke market is also under pressure, with limited price increases expected [1][13][14] - **Steel Market**: The rebar and hot-rolled coil markets are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with recent data showing improvements in both supply and demand, although overall market sentiment remains cautious [1][10][11] - **Nonferrous Metals**: The nonferrous metals market is generally weak, with copper prices expected to remain volatile but high. The aluminum market faces seasonal inventory increases, limiting upward price potential [1][17] - **New Energy Materials**: The polysilicon and industrial silicon markets are weak, while lithium carbonate prices have risen unexpectedly due to improved fundamentals, although risks of price declines remain [1][18][19] Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment is cautious due to mixed economic data and geopolitical uncertainties, impacting various commodity prices and investor strategies [1][6][17] - **Future Expectations**: The outlook for many commodities remains uncertain, with potential for volatility driven by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors [1][20][21][25]