Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is high, and coal prices are rebounding from a low level. The glass and soda ash markets are boosted by market sentiment, with glass and soda ash futures showing a volatile rebound. The double - silicon market is also driven by market sentiment, with the silicon - manganese and silicon - iron futures showing an upward trend [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: The glass 2605 main contract rebounded yesterday, with increased trading volume and open interest. Spot prices fluctuated with the futures prices, and some manufacturers raised their quotes [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash 2605 main contract rebounded in a volatile manner. Spot market quotes fluctuated with the futures, and transaction prices stabilized. Downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass: The short - term supply shortage in the glass market continues. The continuous cold - repair of production lines and significant inventory reduction support the price. The pre - Spring Festival stocking demand from downstream also provides some support. Attention should be paid to the progress of production line cold - repair and the enterprise restocking rhythm [1] - Soda Ash: The weak reality of oversupply in the soda ash market has not improved significantly. Although the inventory accumulation is less than expected, it is still at a high level. The float glass has entered the off - season, and the market is mainly for Spring Festival rigid - demand stocking. Attention should be paid to the enterprise restocking rhythm during the long holiday. In addition, driven by the warming market sentiment, the speculative demand for soda ash has increased [1] - **Strategy** - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda Ash: Volatile [2] Double - Silicon (Silicon - Manganese and Silicon - Iron) - **Market Analysis** - Silicon - Manganese: The silicon - manganese main contract rose 1.61% yesterday under the influence of the black - series futures, with a daily reduction of 12,587 contracts in open interest. The silicon - manganese spot market was strong, and factories adjusted production normally. The price of 6517 silicon - manganese in the northern market was 5,570 - 5,670 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,700 - 5,750 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon - Iron: The silicon - iron futures were strong under the influence of the overall black - series. The price was driven up by the boost of macro - sentiment and the potential cost support. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon - iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,250 - 5,350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon - iron was 5,750 - 5,950 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Silicon - Manganese: The fundamentals of silicon - manganese have improved, but the inventory pressure is still large, and there are new production capacities. The supply - demand remains loose. There is an expectation of increased pig iron production in the future, and the pre - Spring Festival restocking demand from steel mills is expected to improve the demand for silicon - manganese. The South African tariff policy may increase the cost of manganese ore, and attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and production changes [3] - Silicon - Iron: The fundamental contradictions of silicon - iron are controllable. Enterprises actively reduce production loads. Considering the复产 of steel mills and winter - storage restocking, the demand for silicon - iron is expected to improve. The differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi has boosted market sentiment. Considering the expected decline in domestic electricity prices next year and the overall over - capacity of silicon - iron, the price increase is limited. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of silicon - iron and the electricity price policy in the production areas [3] - **Strategy** - Silicon - Manganese: Volatile [4] - Silicon - Iron: Volatile [4]

Group 1 - The investment rating of the coal and coke industry is not mentioned in the report [1][2][3] Group 2 - The current supply - demand contradiction in the coal and coke market is general, with little inventory pressure, which supports prices to some extent. However, due to the off - season effect, there is no continuous upward drive, and prices fluctuate with market sentiment changes [4] Group 3 Market Performance - Coal and coke futures prices fluctuated strongly, rising for two consecutive days, and opened and closed higher at night. In the spot market, some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin regions implemented the first round of coking price increases, while the coking coal market prices were generally weak and stable [3] Driving Factors - India declared coking coal as a key strategic mineral. As a country with continuous growth in the steel industry and high dependence on coking coal imports, it is expected to remain a key driver of global coking coal demand. News about real - estate policies stimulated the stock market's real - estate sector, and the continuous rise of precious and non - ferrous metal prices created a positive atmosphere for the strength of black - series futures [3] Fundamental Situation - Near the Spring Festival, coal production decreased slightly this week due to safety inspections and other factors, with raw coal and clean coal production at 1.978 million tons and 771,000 tons respectively. It is expected that coal mines will start to have holidays on February 5, with an average of 10.1 days, similar to last year. The planned production cuts involve about 744 million tons of production capacity, affecting 18.68 million tons of raw coal output. The expected reduction in coal supply supports coal prices, but the production cuts are in line with past years' patterns, and downstream industries have stocked up in advance [3]

（文华综合） 早间沪铜和国际铜走势受市场情绪左右，伴随着国内期市股市氛围急转直下，铜价大幅回落，目前跌幅在3%附近，昨日涨幅大面积回吐。最近贵金属板块 波动加剧，仍需警惕市场情绪变化。 ...

| | 钢材 | RB2605 | 市场情绪影响钢价走强 | 螺纹钢波动参考3000-3200区间,热卷波动参考 3150-3350区间走势。做多卷螺价差可继续持有 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 0 | | 端 | 铁矿 | 12605 | 钢厂补库兑现,港口库存压力持续增大 | 可在800左右逢高布局空单 | | 色 | | | | 单边震荡偏强看待,区间参考1050-1250,多焦 | | | 焦煤 | JM2605 | 山西产地煤价有所松动,蒙煤跟随盘面波动,盘面强势反弹 | 煤空焦炭 | | | 焦炭 | J2605 | 主流焦企提涨落地,港口贸易价格持稳,盘面强势反弹 | 单边震荡偏强看待,区间参考1650-1850,多焦 煤空焦炭 | | | 硅铁 | SF603 | 供需暂无重大矛盾,成本有提涨预期 | 贯幅震荡,区间参考5500-5900 | | | 锰硅 | SM605 | 锰矿补库接近尾声,猛硅供需改善 | 宽幅震荡,区间参考5600-6000 | | | 铜 | CU2603 | 铜价再创新高,现货贴水大幅走扩 | 观望,主力关注 ...

黑色建材日报 2026-01-30 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3157 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 34 元/吨（1.088%）。当日注册仓单 17283 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 178.54 万手，环比增加 40974 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3260 元/吨, 环比增加 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主 力合约收盘价为 3308 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 28 元/吨（0.853%）。 当日注册仓单 187668 吨, 环比增加 8842 吨。主力合约持 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a mostly positive trend, with Shanghai aluminum futures experiencing a significant increase, reaching a high of 25,840.00 yuan/ton and a rise of 3.08% [1] - The current trend for Shanghai aluminum is characterized by a strong upward movement, driven by geopolitical risks and increased market sentiment towards safe-haven assets, leading to a substantial increase in trading volume [2] - Concerns over potential disruptions in aluminum production in the Middle East due to escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran have contributed to the bullish sentiment in the aluminum market, with a noted increase in prices driven by both events and capital [2] Group 2 - Domestic aluminum production capacity remains high, with operating rates above 96%, while some overseas producers face shutdowns due to power constraints, highlighting a rigid global supply situation [2] - Demand for aluminum is being supported by high growth in emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and infrastructure projects, which is further enhanced by the rising copper-aluminum price ratio [2] - The market is currently in a phase of strong expectations versus weak realities, with short-term price pressures anticipated due to inventory accumulation ahead of the Spring Festival, suggesting a cautious outlook [2]

黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-29 冬储意愿低迷，盘面震荡整理 玻璃纯碱：刚需采购为主，玻碱震荡运行 市场分析 玻璃：昨日玻璃主力合约全天呈现窄幅震荡走势。现货厂家报价基本维持前一日水平，下游市场以刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：供应端玻璃产线冷修预期持续升温，近期行业库存去化较好，库存边际压力有所缓解，但整体库存 仍处于高位，后续需持续跟踪春节前备货节奏；需求端呈现分化态势，光伏玻璃板块受 "抢出口" 预期支撑，刚需 表现相对稳健，而浮法玻璃受消费淡季影响，终端需求持续低迷。 纯碱：昨日纯碱主力合约延续震荡运行格局。现货市场报价随期货盘面高位波动，部分厂家小幅上调报价，下游 企业多持观望态度，采购意愿偏弱。 供需与逻辑：纯碱市场仍处于强供给、弱需求的弱现实格局。供应端，行业高产量、高库存的状态仍将持续，短 期对价格反弹高度形成明显压制，后续需要关注新产能投产进度；需求端持续疲软，未有明显变化，需跟踪小长 假前下游补库节奏的落地情况。近期纯碱市场情绪受化工板块整体回暖带动有所修复，其持续性仍有待进一步观 察。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱新投产进 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate within the bottom range. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils both declined, and the inventory level gradually decreased and approached a relatively reasonable range. For rebar, the output showed an inverse seasonal increase, the apparent demand continued to weaken, and the inventory began to accumulate slightly, but the overall pressure remained limited [2]. - The overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly in the latest period. The supply pressure eased marginally as the overseas shipment entered the off - season. The inventory was at the highest level in the same period of the past five years, suppressing the absolute price. The iron ore price fluctuated in the short term, and the subsequent focus was on the steel mills' restocking and hot - metal production rhythm [5]. - The market sentiment for ferroalloys was affected by the Baogang explosion and other factors. In the future, the market sentiment and cost - push or supply - contraction factors would dominate the market. Attention should be paid to potential issues in manganese ore and the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. - The prices of coking coal and coke were affected by the Baogang incident and market sentiment. In the short term, the prices were expected to continue to show a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment [14][15]. - For industrial silicon, there was an expectation of improved supply - demand, but the price was expected to oscillate due to the approaching Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the production reduction of large factories and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [18]. - The supply of polysilicon was expected to contract in the first quarter, and the supply - demand pattern was expected to improve. It was recommended to wait and see and operate cautiously [21]. - The float glass market lacked substantial positive drivers, and the short - term market was expected to continue to show a narrow - range oscillation [24]. - The soda ash market supply - demand pattern was generally loose, and the short - term market was expected to continue to operate weakly [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Rebar - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3123 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (- 0.09%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 17283 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 tons. The main contract position was 1.7444 million lots, with a month - on - month increase of 29747 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3160 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3240 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The output of rebar showed an inverse seasonal increase, the apparent demand continued to weaken, and the inventory began to accumulate slightly, but the overall pressure remained limited [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Information**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3280 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (- 0.27%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 178826 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 300 tons. The main contract position was 1.5177 million lots, with a month - on - month increase of 9222 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3280 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both declined, and the inventory level gradually decreased and approached a relatively reasonable range [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 783.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.63% (- 5.00). The position changed by - 6440 lots, reaching 564,600 lots. The weighted position was 920,000 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 56.20 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.70% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly. The supply pressure eased marginally as the overseas shipment entered the off - season. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory continued to rise. The iron ore price fluctuated in the short term, and the subsequent focus was on the steel mills' restocking and hot - metal production rhythm [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On January 28th, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) rose 0.24% intraday, closing at 5832 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, converted to 5910 yuan/ton on the futures market, with a premium of 78 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) rose 0.50% intraday, closing at 5632 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a premium of 118 yuan/ton over the futures price [7][8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market sentiment for ferroalloys was affected by the Baogang explosion and other factors. In the future, the market sentiment and cost - push (manganese ore for manganese silicon) or supply - contraction (due to losses or "dual - carbon" policy for ferrosilicon) factors would dominate the market. Attention should be paid to potential issues in manganese ore and the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: On January 28th, coking coal main contract (JM2605) rose 1.61% intraday, closing at 1134.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1588.4 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 1398.5 yuan/ton, a premium of 264 yuan/ton over the futures price. Coke main contract (J2605) rose 0.96% intraday, closing at 1684.0 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of coking coal and coke were affected by the Baogang incident and market sentiment. In the short term, the prices were expected to continue to show a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment [14][15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2605) was 8760 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.13% (- 100). The weighted contract position changed by - 8748 lots, reaching 376349 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 440 yuan/ton; the 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 90 yuan/ton [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There was an expectation of improved supply - demand, but the price was expected to oscillate due to the approaching Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the production reduction of large factories and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [18]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract (PS2605) was 50805 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.11% (- 1095). The weighted contract position changed by - 1108 lots, reaching 74886 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 49.5 yuan/kg, N - type dense material was 51.5 yuan/kg, and N - type re - feed material was 52.5 yuan/kg, with a basis of 1695 yuan/ton [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of polysilicon was expected to contract in the first quarter, and the supply - demand pattern was expected to improve. It was recommended to wait and see and operate cautiously [21]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Information**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1067 yuan/ton, up 0.09% (+ 1). The North China large - plate price was 1010 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the Central China price was 1090 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On January 23rd, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 53.2158 million cases, up 202,800 cases (+ 0.38%) [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The float glass market lacked substantial positive drivers, and the short - term market was expected to continue to show a narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 1035 - 1130 yuan/ton [24]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1198 yuan/ton, up 0.34% (+ 4). The Shahe heavy - soda price was 1158 yuan, up 4 yuan from the previous day. On January 23rd, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5212 million tons, down 53,800 tons (- 0.38%) [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The soda ash market supply - demand pattern was generally loose, and the short - term market was expected to continue to operate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 1160 - 1230 yuan/ton [26].

今日市场情绪亢奋，大量资金涌入沪铝，推动期价大涨，创历史新高，主力合约收涨5.75%，持仓增加逾5万手，资金流入超17亿元。 从交易所公布的持仓龙虎榜来看，沪铝多空持仓排名前20席位均呈入场态势，多头前20席位持仓量增加32432手至21.21万手，空头前二十席位持仓增加 31112手至24.15万手，多空比为0.88。今日早盘多头快速进场，多头能量集中释放，期价快速拉升。 从今日主力合约具体持仓来看，多头方面，永安期货席位表现最为抢眼，单日增持多单8148手，空头减持113手，居于多头第三位，为多头增仓的核心力 量。东证期货席位紧随其后，增持多单5467手，空单增持1821手。此外，中财期货席位及宏源期货席位今日净多头持仓规模明显扩大，分别增加4295手和 3467手，展现出看多预期。多头榜首国泰君安期货席位多头持仓增加5069手，在空单增持略多，达5998手，净空头持仓规模增加929手。空头榜首中信期货 席位同样也在多空两侧同时增仓，但其空头增仓更为明显，增持5884手，而多单仅增加752手，立场更偏空，为今日净空头持仓规模增加最大的席位。广发 期货席位进行多空双增操作，空头增持数量大于多头增持，由多翻空 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision next Thursday, with a 97.2% probability of maintaining the current rate, and attention will be on Powell's statements [1] - The new Federal Reserve Chair may be announced as early as next week, introducing various uncertainties [1] - Several major U.S. companies are set to release their earnings reports next week [1] Group 2 - The U.S. PCE price data, scheduled for release next Thursday at 21:30, is anticipated to be significant [1] - Gold and silver prices have surged this week, with gold nearing $5000, while oil prices are experiencing volatility due to geopolitical disturbances [1] - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are declining, and it is crucial to manage bond investments effectively [1] Group 3 - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are showing extreme divergence, with a focus on small-cap stocks and potential regulatory measures [1][3] - U.S. stocks have been stagnant for nearly three months, indicating a need for investment hedging strategies [1] - Japanese stocks are undergoing a correction, necessitating management of currency risk [1] Group 4 - The U.S. dollar is facing selling pressure, leading to the Chinese yuan appreciating against the dollar, surpassing the 7 mark, with attention on further appreciation signals next week [1]