15日，国新办就2025年上半年国民经济运行情况举行新闻发布会。 国家统计局副局长盛来运在会上表示，上半年，经济运行总体平稳、稳中向好，生产需求稳定增长，就 业形势总体稳定，居民收入继续增加，新动能成长壮大，高质量发展取得新进展，社会大局保持稳定。 经济运行"稳"的主基调没有变 盛来运表示，上半年一个很突出的特点就是经济运行"稳"。增长稳中略升，上半年GDP同比增长5.3%， 增速比去年同期和全年均提升0.3个百分点。调查失业率总体平稳，今年以来，月度调查失业率基本在 5.0%—5.4%区间波动。物价低位运行，基本平稳。国际收支基本平衡，货物贸易进出口创同期新高， 外汇储备维持在3.2万亿美元以上。从以上四大宏观指标看，经济运行"稳"的主基调没有变。 视频：国家统计局：上半年GDP同比增长5.3%来源：中国新闻网 下半年中国经济保持稳定增长有支撑 盛来运称，不少国际机构还有一些投行对全球经济预测发表展望报告，多数机构都是预测下半年全球经 济放缓，但这些机构大多不约而同调高了中国经济增长的预期。这显示了国际机构和投行对中国经济发 展的信心。从下半年情况看，尽管外部环境还有不少不确定性，内部结构调整的压力较大。但 ...

Economic Overview - China's economy is expected to grow at over 5% in the first half of 2025, supported by policies like the old-for-new consumption initiative and proactive fiscal measures[2] - The economy is projected to follow a "U-shaped" trajectory throughout the year, with growth pressures in the second half due to high base effects and external factors[2][9] Key Challenges - The actual tariff rate imposed by the US on China is approximately 40%, which may lead to diminishing export resilience as previous "rush to export" effects fade[10] - Real estate prices are declining, impacting consumer wealth and spending, with sales and investment in the sector showing negative growth since May[12] - Local government finances remain tight, with significant reliance on fiscal support to sustain growth, potentially limiting resources for the second half of the year[13] Policy Recommendations - Accelerate the issuance and utilization of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds to stimulate investment and consumption[3] - Optimize the old-for-new consumption policy to include the service sector, enhancing its effectiveness[3] - Implement measures to stabilize the real estate market, including the establishment of a central real estate stabilization fund[17] Fiscal and Monetary Measures - Fiscal policy will be a primary focus, with an emphasis on increasing spending to counteract external demand pressures[15] - The government plans to issue approximately 11.86 trillion yuan in new debt for the year, with 5 trillion yuan utilized in the first half and an estimated 5.5 trillion yuan for the second half[13] Inflation and Economic Sentiment - Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth was only 0.1% in June 2025, indicating low inflation, while Producer Price Index (PPI) has been in negative territory for 33 consecutive months[14] - The divergence between macroeconomic data and microeconomic sentiment may hinder economic recovery, necessitating stronger macroeconomic controls to promote reasonable price increases[14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a new consumption-boosting plan introduced by Beijing, while both new and second-hand housing transactions have shown a month-on-month decline [1][8] - The real estate sector has outperformed the broader market, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index rising by 6.12% compared to a 0.82% increase in the CSI 300 Index, resulting in a relative return of 5.3% [5][13] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index increased by 6.12%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 0.82%, indicating strong sector performance [5][13] 2. Industry Fundamentals - For the week of July 4-10, the total number of new homes sold in 38 key cities was 25,620 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.9% but a month-on-month decline of 36%. The total transaction area was 2.092 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 18% and a month-on-month decrease of 54.2% [6][20] - In the same week, the total number of second-hand homes sold in 16 key cities was 16,990 units, showing a year-on-year decline of 10% and a month-on-month decline of 6.7%. The total transaction area was 1.692 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 5.4% [6][38] - The inventory of commercial housing in 17 key cities was 187.848 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a depletion cycle of 142.6 weeks [6][51] 3. Company News - China Merchants Shekou reported a signed sales area of 695,000 square meters and a sales amount of 21.748 billion yuan in June 2025. For the first half of 2025, the cumulative signed sales area was 3.35 million square meters, with a total sales amount of 88.894 billion yuan [17][19] - Gemdale Group announced a signed area of 262,000 square meters in June 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 41.39%, with a signed amount of 3.1 billion yuan, down 53.24% year-on-year [17][19] - Huaxia Happiness expects a net profit loss of between 5.5 billion and 7.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of 4.849 billion yuan in the same period last year [18][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for PVC is to short on rallies, with an outlook of oscillating downward [1] Core View of the Report - The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The PVC operating rate continues to decline, and downstream demand is weak. The Indian BIS policy is extended, and the anti - dumping policy may limit exports. Social inventory is increasing, and the real - estate market improvement needs time. With new capacity coming online and weak demand, PVC faces significant pressure and is expected to oscillate at a low level in the near term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The strategy is to short on rallies. The PVC operating rate is down 0.47 percentage points to 76.97%, and downstream operating rate is also low. The Indian BIS policy is extended, and the anti - dumping policy may limit exports. Social inventory is increasing, and the real - estate market improvement is slow. New capacity is about to be put into production, and demand is not substantially improved, so PVC has great pressure [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2509 contract decreased 0.50% to close at 4980 yuan/ton, with an increase of 34,568 lots in open interest to 967,347 lots [2] Basis - On July 11, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4840 yuan/ton. The V2509 contract closed at 4980 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 140 yuan/ton, strengthening by 80 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking Supply - Some PVC plants are under maintenance, and the operating rate decreased 0.47 percentage points to 76.97%. New capacity of 250,000 tons/year has been put into operation in 2025, and another 1.1 million tons/year is expected to be put into operation in July [4] Demand - Real - estate data showed slight improvement in 2025 from January to May, but year - on - year figures are still negative. The year - on - year decline in investment, sales, and completion area is large. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased 38.17% week - on - week and is at the lowest level in the same period over the years [5] Inventory - As of the week of July 10, PVC social inventory increased 5.37% week - on - week to 623,600 tons, 34.15% less than the same period last year, and the inventory is still relatively high [6]

Group 1: Beijing Real Estate Market Overview - The GDP of Beijing has shown rapid growth in the first half of the year, with macro policies gradually releasing market demand potential [1] - In the office market, technology companies have demonstrated strong leasing performance, particularly in the Zhongguancun area, driven by consolidation and expansion activities [1] - The overall rental performance of commercial real estate in Beijing faces significant challenges, but improved liquidity is expected to boost market confidence and solidify the foundation for recovery [1] Group 2: Office and Investment Insights - In the Grade A office market, the second quarter saw notable leasing activity from technology firms, while small domestic law firms continued to provide stable leasing demand in the eastern CBD area, although leasing momentum has slowed compared to previous periods [1] - Real estate investment in the first half of the year was primarily focused on retail and office assets, with domestic buyers being the main participants [1] - The value gap effect of quality assets in core business districts and the continuous release of self-use demand are driving core asset prices into a rational investment range, which is expected to optimize the market supply-demand structure in the long term [1] Group 3: Retail and Hotel Market Dynamics - In the premium retail real estate market, new brands focusing on emotional value and genuine consumer needs are injecting new vitality into the retail market, despite the overall market challenges [1] - The high-end hotel market in Beijing has faced pressure, with average occupancy rates remaining stable compared to the same period in 2024, while average room rates have decreased by over 5% year-on-year [2] - Some hotels have successfully achieved localized growth through differentiated pricing strategies and multi-channel expansion, resulting in an increase in revenue per available room despite overall market conditions [2]

澳新银行：韩国央行倾向于进一步放宽政策 金十数据7月10日讯，澳新银行经济学家Krystal Tan在一份报告中写道，尽管本月维持利率不变，但韩 国央行倾向于进一步放松政策。Tan指出，韩国央行六位委员会成员中有四位为未来三个月进一步降息 敞开了大门。她预计，韩国央行最早将于8月降息25个基点，美韩贸易谈判进展以及首尔房地产市场的 过热程度，是央行制定政策时关注的关键因素。她指出，如果美方大幅提高对韩商品的关税，可能会促 使韩国央行加快降息；而若首尔楼市进一步升温，则可能推迟降息时机。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The real - estate policy support weakened in the first half of the year, and the real - estate completion end significantly dragged down glass consumption. The demand for individual home - improvement orders also weakened. Although the production and sales of automobiles maintained high positive growth, especially automobile exports, which supported glass consumption in the automotive sector, it still couldn't offset the drag from the real - estate completion end. From the Spring Festival to now, glass has experienced a significant downward trend, with the glass 09 contract falling from a maximum of 1499 yuan/ton to the current 977 yuan/ton, a decline of 35% [7][8][37]. - The core point of contention in the market for glass consumption in the second half of the year is the change in the real - estate industry. The real - estate market will remain weak in the long - term, and the completion end will continue to drag down glass consumption. The consumption of glass in the real - estate completion end will further weaken, individual home - improvement order consumption will continue to decline, and automotive glass consumption is expected to maintain positive growth. It is estimated that the annual glass consumption will decrease by about 7.1% [7][8][38]. - In the first half of this year, the production profit of float glass was relatively stable, with the loss of natural - gas - made glass narrowing, and the profits of coal - gas - made and petroleum - coke - made glass rebounding slightly. Recently, the losses of natural - gas - made and petroleum - coke - made glass have slightly increased. Currently, only coal - gas - made glass has a production profit of about 80 yuan/ton, while natural - gas - made and petroleum - coke - made glass are in the red, with losses of - 180 yuan/ton and - 128 yuan/ton respectively. If the whole industry continues to suffer large - scale losses, some production lines may be cold - repaired, and the output may decline. It is estimated that the annual glass supply will decrease by about 7.2% [7][9][47]. - The glass inventory increased rapidly after the Spring Festival, then briefly decreased, and now has returned to an increasing trend, indicating that the float glass industry still faces a certain degree of oversupply in the short term. It is advisable to wait for changes in the supply side and further trading opportunities [7][62][71]. - In the short term, with no real - estate stimulus policies and no large - scale cold - repair of glass factories, it is suitable to conduct sell - hedging at high prices [11][72]. Summary According to the Catalog 2025 First - Half Glass Market Review - **Real - estate industry cooling, completion declining year - on - year**: Since 2022, the real - estate "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" policy has driven the continuous improvement of the real - estate completion end. However, since 2024, the improvement has ended, and the real - estate completion data has shown significant negative growth for two consecutive years. As of May 2025, the cumulative housing completion area was 184 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%, among which the residential completion area was 133 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.6% [16]. - **Limited real - estate policy support, weakening demand for individual home - improvement orders**: In the first half of 2025, a series of real - estate policies were introduced, but the demand for individual home - improvement orders continued to weaken. After a brief rebound in March, the second - hand housing market returned to a downward trend, and only some first - tier cities showed relatively high second - hand housing transactions, which also gradually weakened. Since September 2024, the active second - hand housing transactions have not driven the sales growth of building materials and home furnishing stores, and the national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index has also declined [18][26]. - **New - energy vehicles maintaining good momentum, supporting automotive glass consumption**: From January to May this year, the cumulative national automobile production was 12.826 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.7%, among which the cumulative new - energy vehicle production was 5.699 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 45.2%. From January to May, the cumulative national automobile exports were 2.49 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [28]. 2025 Second - Half Glass Market Outlook - **Weak real - estate market, completion continuing to drag down glass consumption**: The real - estate market will remain weak in the long - term. The real - estate completion end will continue to drag down glass consumption as new home sales have not improved, and the corresponding completion consumption has declined for two consecutive years [38][39]. - **Profit significantly compressed, glass supply uncertain**: Currently, only coal - gas - made glass has a production profit, while natural - gas - made and petroleum - coke - made glass are in the red. In the first half of the year, the float glass profit was relatively stable, and the number of operating production lines decreased by only 3 compared with the beginning of the year, with the average daily melting volume maintained at about 157,000 tons. If the whole industry continues to suffer large - scale losses, some production lines may be cold - repaired, and the output may decline [47][56][71]. Supply - Demand Contradiction Exists, Inventory Rising Again - Affected by the decline in consumption, the production profit of float glass was compressed, and the output decreased. However, the decline in consumption far exceeded that in output. After the Spring Festival, the glass inventory increased rapidly, then briefly decreased, and now has returned to an increasing trend, indicating that the float glass industry still faces a certain degree of oversupply [62]. Summary - The consumption of glass in the real - estate completion end will further weaken, individual home - improvement order consumption will continue to decline, and automotive glass consumption is expected to maintain positive growth. It is estimated that the annual glass consumption will decrease by about 7.1%. The float glass profit has been significantly compressed, and if the whole industry continues to suffer large - scale losses, some production lines may be cold - repaired, and the output may decline. It is estimated that the annual glass supply will decrease by about 7.2%. In the short term, glass still faces a certain degree of oversupply. It is advisable to pay attention to changes in the supply side and wait for trading opportunities. In the absence of real - estate stimulus policies and large - scale cold - repair of glass factories, it is suitable to conduct sell - hedging at high prices [7][71][72].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily discuss the **Chinese bond market** and its dynamics, including interest rates, government debt supply, and macroeconomic factors affecting the market. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Bond Market Performance**: In June, the bond market experienced overall fluctuations, with real bond yields slightly decreasing to approximately 1.65%. The central bank's unexpected reverse repurchase operations supported liquidity, while U.S.-China tariff negotiations and geopolitical conflicts influenced market sentiment [1][5][16]. 2. **Interest Rate Trends**: The bond market's yield rates have shown a trend of first rising and then falling throughout the year, stabilizing at lower levels due to the long-term U.S.-China trade tensions and the central bank's growth-stabilizing policies [3][19]. 3. **Government Debt Supply**: It is anticipated that the supply of government bonds will peak in July 2025, with special government bonds expected to exceed 190 billion and ordinary bonds net financing around 280 billion. The net supply of government bonds in July could reach approximately 3 trillion, which is expected to have a minimal impact on the market [4][14]. 4. **Inflation and CPI Predictions**: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to hover around 0% year-on-year, with pork prices declining and oil prices rising due to geopolitical tensions. Core CPI is projected to recover moderately, influenced by seasonal factors, but the internal driving force for consumption recovery remains weak [7][8]. 5. **Export Growth Outlook**: Exports maintained a positive growth of 4.8% in May, supported by resilient demand from ASEAN, India, and Europe. However, there is a risk of negative growth in export rates in the second half of the year, particularly as the U.S. stance on tariffs may change as the tariff exemption period approaches its end [9][2]. 6. **Institutional Investment Behavior**: Public funds became the largest holders of interest rate bonds in June, increasing their holdings by approximately 500 billion compared to May. They shifted their strategy from short-term bonds to longer-term and ultra-long-term bonds [18][17]. 7. **Market Liquidity and Central Bank Policies**: The liquidity in the financial market remains relatively loose, with the central bank's actions expected to maintain this trend. The overall monetary policy is anticipated to remain accommodative, with a focus on potential structural monetary policy tools to support key projects [15][19]. 8. **PMI and Economic Activity**: The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is close to the threshold line, indicating a slight recovery in economic activity. However, corporate profit data suggests ongoing pressures in production and operations, which may limit further PMI recovery [11]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The notes highlight the importance of monitoring the upcoming political bureau meeting for potential new policies that could impact the market [19]. - The potential for a shift in investment strategies among institutions as they respond to changing market conditions and central bank policies is emphasized [10][17].

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen real estate market is experiencing fluctuations in both second-hand and new housing transactions, with a notable increase in second-hand transactions year-on-year, while new housing sales are declining significantly compared to the previous year [1][4][7]. Second-hand Housing Market - In June 2025, the number of recorded second-hand housing transactions was 5,546, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 3.2% but a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [1]. - The first half of 2025 saw a total of 35,106 second-hand housing contracts, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.7% compared to the same period in 2024 [3]. - The average monthly recorded transactions for second-hand housing in the first half of 2025 reached 5,851, indicating a generally active market supported by policy and demand [7]. - As of June 30, 2025, there were 73,858 second-hand properties available for sale, a month-on-month increase of 2.9% [6]. - The proportion of transactions for properties smaller than 90 square meters accounted for 55.9% of total sales, down from 61.4% in the same period of 2024, suggesting a gradual release of demand for larger properties [6]. New Housing Market - In June 2025, the pre-sale of new homes totaled 2,054 units, showing a month-on-month decline of 7.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 35.7% [4]. - The total pre-sale of new homes in the first half of 2025 was 16,522 units, which is an 11.9% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with residential sales increasing by 24.4% [4]. Market Dynamics - The market is currently in a "price-for-volume" phase, with sellers having more negotiation power, indicating some uncertainty in the market [7]. - The Dragon River area has seen a 2.0 percentage point decrease in transaction share, influenced by external policy changes, particularly the recent LPR adjustment [6].

Core Insights - Local fiscal revenue has shown slow growth while expenditures continue to expand, leading to significant fiscal imbalances [1][6] - As of June, 17 provinces have disclosed their general public budget revenue and expenditure for the first five months of 2025, with 15 provinces reporting revenue growth [1][2] Revenue Growth Analysis - Among the 17 provinces, Jilin Province reported the highest revenue growth at 15%, significantly above the national average of -0.3% [2][3] - Non-tax revenue in Jilin increased by 30.6%, driven by a 104.6% rise in income from the paid use of state-owned resources [3] - Qinghai Province followed Jilin with a revenue growth rate of 7.4%, attributed to a 60.2% increase in non-tax revenue [4] Expenditure Trends - Expenditure growth among the 17 provinces remains robust, with Shanghai leading at 14.2%, while other provinces show single-digit growth [6] - Despite the overall increase in expenditures, 16 out of 17 provinces reported expenditures exceeding revenues, a trend consistent with previous years [6][7] Land Sales and Fiscal Health - The revenue from land sales, a crucial source of income for local governments, has declined, with a 11.9% drop in the first five months of the year [7][8] - Specific provinces like Shaanxi and Jilin experienced significant declines in land sale revenues, with drops of approximately 42.3% and 33.5% respectively [8] Conclusion - The combination of slow revenue growth, rising expenditures, and declining land sale revenues indicates ongoing fiscal challenges for local governments, necessitating adjustments in budget strategies [6][7]