1. Report's Overall Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industries [1][2][3] 2. Core Views - The ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, especially the Iran - US - Israel situation, are the core variables affecting the global macro - pattern and financial markets. The US inflation and economic outlook face increased risks, while China's foreign trade shows strong resilience. In a complex environment with multiple factors at play, investors should adopt a cautious approach and focus on risk management [2] 3. Summary by Industry Financial Futures - **Macro**: The IEA will release 4 billion barrels of emergency oil reserves. The US 2 - month CPI and core CPI are in line with expectations. The Middle - East geopolitical situation, especially the Iran - related conflicts, continues to ferment [1][2][3] - **RMB Exchange Rate**: In the short - term, due to the relatively strong US dollar index and concerns about inflation and Middle - East conflicts, the RMB is difficult to start a trend appreciation. In the medium - to long - term, if the domestic economic fundamentals improve and exports remain resilient, the RMB may show a moderate appreciation trend. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.93, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 6.82 [3][4] - **Stock Index**: The impact of geopolitics is gradually weakening, and the trading logic is returning to the domestic market. The market sentiment has not fully recovered. In the short - term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate, and investors are advised to hold positions and wait and see [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The market is waiting for new driving forces. After the decline, the value of treasury bonds has increased. Investors can hold a small long - term position and make low - batch purchases at different price levels, waiting for a high - price sell [6] Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the medium - to long - term, the demand growth logic of downstream industries remains unchanged, and the industry fundamentals support the long - term value of lithium carbonate. Recently, due to significant macro - impacts and large market fluctuations, investors can look for opportunities to go long on dips [7] - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The global energy transition is an irreversible trend, and photovoltaic is the core track of energy structure transformation. The industry is currently at the bottom of the production cycle, and investors should track the "anti - involution" process and marginal optimization signals of the supply - demand structure [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The short - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is dominated by the war situation. For aluminum and alumina, investors can consider selling deep - out - of - the - money put options. For cast aluminum alloys, investors can pay attention to the price difference with aluminum and take corresponding long - short positions [11][12] - **Copper**: The futures market has capital inflows and outflows. The intraday trend of Shanghai copper fluctuates around the moving average. The investment strategy remains unchanged [12][15] - **Zinc**: In the short - term, affected by inventory accumulation and overall pressure on the sector, zinc prices may be weak and fluctuate horizontally. In the medium - term, the outlook is relatively strong [16] - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The intraday and night - session trends are volatile. Due to supply fluctuations in Indonesia and increased downstream procurement sentiment, the short - term new energy link may be strong. For stainless steel, attention should be paid to the release rhythm of subsequent demand [17][18] - **Tin**: The price is supported at the bottom and is expected to fluctuate strongly [19][20] - **Lead**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and investors can conduct range operations [21] Oils, Fats, and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The US soybean and domestic soybean meal prices are strong. The supply pressure of imported soybeans will be alleviated in the second quarter. The domestic soybean meal inventory is rising, and the vegetable meal supply is recovering. The market is expected to be strong in the short - term, and investors can consider positive spreads between months or widening the spread between soybean meal and vegetable meal [22][23] - **Oils**: The oil market rebounds with the rise of crude oil prices. The Indonesian and US bio - fuel policies are beneficial to the market. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the development of the Iran situation and the results of the US bio - fuel policy review next week [24][25] Energy and Oil & Gas - **SC**: The market focus is on the Middle - East situation. Although the IEA has announced a large - scale oil release, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a supply gap, and the market is still uncertain [27][28] - **Fuel Oil**: The supply - side constraints support the fuel oil market, and the high - and low - sulfur fuel oil prices remain high. The short - term strong market pattern is difficult to change [30] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price follows the cost of crude oil. The short - term geopolitical disturbance is the core factor, and investors need to beware of a sharp price drop when the Middle - East situation eases [31] Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: In the medium - to long - term, the bull - market foundation remains. In the short - term, investors need to beware of panic selling caused by concerns about inflation and delayed interest - rate cut expectations due to the repeated Middle - East situation. Dips can be considered as opportunities to go long [33][35] - **Gold & Silver**: The strategy is to be bullish on precious metals in the long - term. Dips are opportunities to go long. Attention should be paid to the support levels of gold and silver, as well as the impact of the Middle - East situation on inflation and monetary policy [36][37] Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The spot price of softwood pulp is stable, and the futures price of pulp fluctuates in a relatively reasonable range. The futures price of offset paper is affected by the overall sentiment of the energy - chemical sector and the pulp price. In the short - to medium - term, both are expected to fluctuate [39][40] - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Affected by the Middle - East conflict, the cost support for pure benzene and styrene is enhanced. The market is volatile, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [41] - **LPG**: The price is affected by the rise of crude oil. The market situation depends on the development of the US - Iran conflict and the situation of the Strait of Hormuz [42][44] - **Methanol**: The trading logic has changed. In the short - term, methanol may catch up with the increase of olefins. The import volume is expected to decrease. Attention should be paid to the risk of geopolitical easing [46] - **Plastic PP**: The polyolefin market is affected by the news of the planned production reduction of petrochemical plants. The short - term supply pressure is limited, and the focus is on the Middle - East situation and the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz [47][48] - **Rubber**: The synthetic rubber is strong, which supports the valuation of natural rubber. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has a negative impact on rubber demand. The overall market is volatile. In the medium - term, investors can be bullish on dips, and in the short - term, they should be cautious [49][54] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The soda ash supply may be affected by maintenance, and the inventory is better than expected. The glass supply has a return expectation, and the medium - level inventory restricts the price increase. Both are expected to fluctuate [55][57] Black Metals - **Rebar & Profit**: The rise in the prices of coke and iron ore provides cost support for steel prices, but the high inventory of hot - rolled coils limits the upward space. The short - term steel price may rebound, but the rebound height is limited [60][61] - **Iron Ore**: The market is strong due to tightened spot liquidity, but the fundamentals show seasonal supply - demand weakness. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. The upward space is limited, and investors with long positions can consider taking profits [61][64] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal may be affected by safety inspections. The supply pressure of Mongolian coal is high. The coking profit is improving, and the coke production may increase. The black - metal prices may face downward pressure due to weak steel exports [65][67] - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: The cost support for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is increasing, but the weak downstream demand and high inventory of steel plates limit the upward space [68][69] Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The pig market is affected by weak post - Spring - Festival demand. The price is supported by second - fattening sentiment but lacks upward driving force. Investors can sell call options on the main hog contract [71][73] - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton supply - demand situation is expected to tighten, which supports the price. However, the high domestic - foreign cotton price difference limits the upward space. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle - East and US foreign trade policies [74][75] - **Sugar**: The sugar futures price is strong, driven by the rise in oil prices. The market expects a tightening of sugar supply, and the short - term strong pattern is expected to continue [76] - **Eggs**: The egg price is supported by concentrated demand release but is restricted by high inventory. The short - term price is expected to be strong, and investors can sell call options on the main egg contract [76][77] - **Apples**: The apple futures price is supported by fundamentals and delivery logic. The 05 contract has a prominent shortage of delivery products, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [85][86] - **Jujubes**: The market focus is on demand. The current downstream sales are weak. Under the overall loose supply - demand situation in China, the jujube price may fluctuate at a low level [87] - **Logs**: The emotional fluctuations in the log market have converged, and the price is expected to return to a volatile state. The inventory is rising, and the demand has not fully recovered. Investors can adopt a wait - and - see or range - trading strategy [88][89]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle East geopolitical disturbances are still fermenting, and the international oil price will continue to be highly volatile. The US inflation data is in line with expectations, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have cooled. The A - share market is likely to maintain a volatile and sector - differentiated pattern in the short term, and the bond market is expected to be weakly volatile. Different commodity prices will show different trends affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and inflation expectations [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas, the Middle East conflict continues. Iran warns that oil prices may rise to $200 per barrel, and the IEA plans to release a record 4 billion barrels of reserves. The US 2 - month CPI data is in line with expectations, with the core CPI at a five - year low. The US stock market is weakly volatile, the US dollar index rises, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounds. Domestically, the A - share market closes higher with reduced trading volume, and the bond market continues to weaken [2][3] Precious Metals - International precious metal futures generally close down. The latest US CPI data shows that inflation continues to cool, which cools the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and strengthens the US dollar, suppressing precious metal prices. Although the release of oil reserves weakens the inflation logic, the Middle East geopolitical situation remains highly uncertain, and it is difficult to form a trend - based market for now [4][5] Copper - LME copper fluctuates around $13,000. The US inflation is in line with expectations, and the cost - transfer signs of tariffs are emerging. The Iranian - US conflict has uncertain directions, and the large - scale fluctuations in oil prices may limit the Fed's interest - rate cut space this year. Fundamentally, the supply growth rate of copper concentrates is low, and the domestic social inventory starts to be destocked. It is expected that copper prices will remain high and volatile in the short term [6][7] Aluminum - The price increase of aluminum slows down. Trump indicates that the military action against Iran is "about to end", but the Strait of Hormuz is still blocked. It is expected that the upward trend of aluminum prices will slow down. If the strait is restricted for more than 4 weeks, there may be a shortage of raw material alumina in the Middle East, leading to passive production cuts [8][9] Alumina - The domestic supply - demand of alumina is relatively stable recently. The supply - side operating rate remains flat, and the consumption - side electrolytic aluminum enterprises resume most long - term order purchases. Overseas alumina prices fall, but freight prices rise. It is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations [10] Cast Aluminum - Cast aluminum runs strongly. The Middle East geopolitical situation disturbs the market, and the price of primary aluminum remains strong. Although the supply of scrap aluminum has improved significantly, the price of scrap aluminum also rises with the increase of primary aluminum. The cost support of cast aluminum is strong, and it is expected to run strongly, but the sustainability depends on the realization of the consumption peak season [11] Zinc - The zinc price shows a volatile pattern. The US core inflation slows down, and the market expects the next Fed interest - rate cut to be in September. The release of oil reserves fails to effectively relieve inflation concerns, and the US dollar strengthens, suppressing metals. The downstream consumption improvement is not obvious, and the inventory remains high, but the overseas zinc ore supply tightens, and the processing fees are under pressure. The zinc price has support at the bottom, and the short - term contradiction is not prominent, maintaining a volatile pattern [12] Lead - The lead price stabilizes. After the lead price falls, the downstream battery enterprises' purchase at low prices improves, but the high inventory and the inflow pressure of crude lead restrain the lead price. The short - term futures price is difficult to change the low - level volatile pattern [13] Tin - The tin price fluctuates narrowly. Investors are vigilant about the further escalation of the Middle East conflict, the US dollar index rises after a fall, and risk assets are under pressure. The downstream demand is average, and the inventory reduction in China needs to be observed. The supply - side concerns are alleviated, and the fundamental support weakens. It is expected that the tin price will maintain a narrow - range fluctuation in the short term [14] Nickel - The nickel price fluctuates strongly. The US inflation is in line with expectations, but the Iranian - US conflict is uncertain, and the large - scale fluctuations in oil prices may limit the Fed's interest - rate cut space. The shipping obstruction in the Strait of Hormuz affects Indonesia's sulfur imports, increasing the production cost of nickel. The downstream steel mills enter the peak season, but the actual production may be lower than expected. It is expected that the nickel price will maintain a volatile trend in the short term [15][16] Steel (Screw and Coil) - The steel futures fluctuate and rebound. The spot market trading shows signs of recovery. The downstream construction sites resume work, and the steel demand enters the release channel. The supply side also recovers, but the steel mills' production - increasing motivation is insufficient due to limited profit margins, and the inventory starts to decline. It is expected that the futures price will continue to fluctuate and rebound [17] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures fluctuate strongly. After the Two Sessions, steel mills resume production, and the iron - water output rises, supporting the ore price. The overseas shipment decreases this week, but the arrival increases, and the domestic mines also resume production. The port inventory remains at a high level, and the supply pressure still exists. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate and rebound [18] Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal supply recovers rapidly, the production increases steadily, and the inventory accumulates. After the first - round price cut of coke, the profit margin of coke enterprises narrows, and the production - increasing motivation is not strong. With the end of the Two Sessions, steel mills are expected to resume production, and the demand for coke increases. It is expected that coking coal and coke will run in a volatile manner [19] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal futures fluctuate strongly. Although the IEA plans to release strategic reserves, the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz dominates, and the oil price rises, boosting the US soybean market. The estimated soybean arrival in March is low, and the supply is tight. The import cost rises, and the domestic soybean meal valuation increases. It is expected to run strongly in the short term [20][21] Palm Oil - The palm oil futures fluctuate strongly. The US core inflation slows down as expected, but the post - war impact is not reflected, and the inflation may heat up later. The IEA plans to release reserves, but the oil price still runs strongly due to the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz. If the oil price remains high, Indonesia may restart the B50 policy this year. The palm oil production in Malaysia increases in early March, but the export demand increases more. It is expected to run strongly in the short term [22][23]

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - The U.S. CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year in February, while core CPI rose by 2.5%, both meeting market expectations[12] - Overall inflation and core inflation remained stable, with energy inflation showing an upward trend[2] - Core inflation showed a slight decrease, driven by stable core services and a decline in core goods[3] Group 2: Energy and Food Inflation - Energy prices rose by 0.5% year-on-year in February, a 0.6 percentage point increase from January[3] - Food prices increased by 3.1% year-on-year, rebounding by 0.2 percentage points from January[3] - The contribution of core goods to inflation continued to decline, with core goods' year-on-year growth decreasing to approximately 1.0%[19] Group 3: Future Inflation Expectations - There is a potential for inflation to rebound in March due to the high base effect and rising energy prices[4] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East may lead to unexpected inflation increases, with oil prices rising approximately $16 per barrel recently[5] - The Federal Reserve may remain cautious in its decision-making, potentially delaying interest rate changes if inflation pressures persist[6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current gold price maintains a narrow - range oscillation, showing a sideways consolidation trend. After the short - term boost of geopolitics to gold and silver prices, the sharp rise in oil prices under the background of the US - Iran war triggers market inflation expectations and makes the market re - evaluate the US economy's ability to withstand energy shocks. In February 2026, the US CPI and core CPI were 2.4% and 2.5% respectively, remaining flat for two consecutive months. The stickiness of the service end is the core resistance to the decline of inflation, while the slowdown of housing inflation and the continuation of commodity deflation provide key impetus for long - term inflation cooling. In the context of rising energy prices, it may re - intensify price upward pressure, which will make the Fed cautious about the interest - rate cut rhythm, and it is difficult to see rapid easing policy signals in the short term, suppressing precious metal prices. The strategy is to be cautiously bearish, with the reference operating range of the main Shanghai gold contract being 1100 - 1200 yuan/gram and that of the main Shanghai silver contract being 20500 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold fell 0.37% to 1151.48 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.88% to 21997.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold fell 0.07% to 5175.30 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 0.06% to 85.48 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.21%, and the US dollar index was reported at 99.37 [2] - In February 2026, the US CPI and core CPI were 2.4% and 2.5% respectively, remaining flat for two consecutive months. Before the escalation of the current geopolitical conflict, the US inflation pressure had shown significant signs of relief. The CPI had a mild month - on - month increase of 0.3%, the core CPI month - on - month was also stable at 0.2%, and the year - on - year increase of core inflation remained at a near - five - year low [2] - The spokesman of the Central Command of Khatam al - Anbiya in Iran severely warned that Iran is fully capable of blocking the Strait of Hormuz and clearly stated that "no liter of oil will be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz under conditions favorable to the US and its allies." To deal with the violent shock in the energy market and relieve the supply tension, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that it would release 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves into the market. Meanwhile, the Trump administration plans to launch multiple trade investigations on Wednesday local time according to Article 301 of the 1974 Trade Act through the US Trade Representative's Office to pave the way for imposing new tariffs, covering issues such as digital service tax and exchange - rate manipulation [3] 3.2 Strategy View - The current gold price maintains a narrow - range oscillation, showing a sideways consolidation trend. Geopolitics provides short - term support for gold and silver prices, and the sharp rise in oil prices under the US - Iran war background triggers inflation expectations. The US inflation was in a moderate decline channel before the Middle East conflict, but the stickiness of the service end slows down the decline rhythm. Rising energy prices may re - intensify price upward pressure, making the Fed cautious about interest - rate cuts and suppressing precious metal prices in the short term. The strategy is to be cautiously bearish, with the reference operating range of the main Shanghai gold contract being 1100 - 1200 yuan/gram and that of the main Shanghai silver contract being 20500 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [4] 3.3 Gold and Silver Data - **Gold**: COMEX gold's open interest decreased by 2.47% to 40.98 million lots; LBMA gold's closing price rose 2.43% to 5209.70 US dollars/ounce; SHFE gold's open interest increased by 2.72% to 30.57 million lots, and the precipitation funds increased by 2.90% to 56.346 billion yuan; AuT + D's trading volume decreased by 12.13% to 40.35 tons, and the open interest decreased by 0.38% to 243.01 tons [8] - **Silver**: COMEX silver's open interest decreased by 9.67% to 11.33 million lots; LBMA silver's closing price rose 6.09% to 88.53 US dollars/ounce; SHFE silver's open interest decreased by 0.75% to 48.91 million lots, and the precipitation funds decreased by 2.94% to 29.393 billion yuan; AgT + D's trading volume decreased by 43.61% to 195.49 tons, and the open interest decreased by 1.11% to 2860.266 tons [8] 3.4 ETF Holdings - **Gold**: The holdings of iShare US remained unchanged at 494.04 tons; the holdings of GBS UK remained unchanged at 30.59 tons; the holdings of PHAU UK decreased by 0.10% to 54.41 tons; the holdings of GOLD UK increased by 0.12% to 29.96 tons; the holdings of SGBS Switzerland remained unchanged at 35.20 tons [64] - **Silver**: The closing price of silver ETFs fell 2.72% to 77.91 US dollars; the holdings of SLV US decreased by 0.74% to 15539.06 tons, and the precipitation funds decreased by 3.31% to 4.3073 billion US dollars; the trading volume decreased by 20.87% to 29.3077 million shares; the holdings of ETPMAG Australia remained unchanged at 487.41 tons; the holdings of PSLV Canada remained unchanged at 6747.37 tons; the holdings of CEF Canada remained unchanged at 1583.02 tons [64]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of rising oil prices and tariffs on inflation, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts until September due to these pressures [3]. Inflation Data Summary - The February CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, compared to a 0.2% increase in January, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, consistent with expectations [5]. - Energy prices increased by 0.6% month-on-month and 0.5% year-on-year, while food prices rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year [5]. - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [5]. - Housing prices, a major component of CPI, increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 3% year-on-year, with rent showing the smallest monthly increase since January 2021 at 0.1% [5]. Tariff and Cost Pressures - Despite most import tariffs being absorbed by companies, ongoing high input costs suggest that businesses may not continue to bear these expenses [6]. - The recent Supreme Court ruling has led to a 10% global tariff, which President Trump plans to increase to 15% [5]. Market Expectations for Federal Reserve Actions - Following the inflation data release, expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have cooled, with a 99% probability of maintaining rates in the upcoming March meeting [7]. - The probability of a rate cut in April dropped to 11% from 21% a month prior, with traders now anticipating a potential cut in September [7]. Future Inflation Outlook - Analysts predict that the recent surge in oil prices could lead to increased inflationary pressures in the coming months, particularly as gasoline prices have risen over 18% since late February [8]. - The ongoing conflict in Iran is expected to exacerbate inflation, with potential increases in transportation and consumer goods costs due to higher energy prices [8]. - The impact of rising oil prices could elevate overall inflation by 0.15 to 0.30 percentage points, depending on the conflict's evolution [9].

| 道琼斯工业 | 纳斯达克指数 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 47417.27 22716.13 | | 6775.80 | | -289.24 -0.61% +19.03 +0.08% -5.68 -0.08% | | | | 美国科技七巨头 中概科技龙头 | | 中国金龙 | | 62694.20 | 3927.68 | 7167.45 | | +169.15 +0.27% -85.84 -2.14% -55.51 -0.77% | | | 大型科技股涨跌互现，其中，甲骨文涨超9%，消息面上，该公司上调下一财年业绩指引。此 外，特斯拉涨超2%，英伟达涨0.66%，亚马逊跌0.78%。 芯片股多数上涨，费城半导体指数涨0.63%，美光科技涨超3%，英特尔涨逾2%，台积电涨超 2%，拉姆研究涨逾1%，应用材料涨逾1%。跌幅方面，迈威尔科技跌超3%，恩智浦半导体跌 逾1%。 能源股集体上涨，埃克森美孚涨超2%，雪佛龙涨近3%，康菲石油涨超2%，西方石油涨逾 4%。 黄金股普遍下跌，哈莫尼黄金跌近11%，科尔黛伦矿业跌超4%，埃尔拉多黄金跌近4%，金田 跌近3%，盎格鲁黄金跌近 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest U.S. inflation data indicates stable price trends, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2026 aligning with market expectations, although the impact of geopolitical tensions on oil prices has yet to be reflected in the data [2][4]. Inflation Data Summary - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year in February 2026, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, consistent with Dow Jones consensus predictions [4]. - Housing, the largest component of core CPI, saw a slight month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year rise of 3%, with rent increasing only 0.1%, marking the smallest monthly increase since January 2021 [4]. - Food prices rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, while energy prices increased by 0.6% month-on-month and 0.5% year-on-year, indicating manageable fluctuations [4]. - Clothing prices surged by 1.3% month-on-month due to tariff pressures, while new car prices remained stable with a year-on-year increase of only 0.5%, and prices for used cars and auto insurance declined, contributing to lower overall prices [4]. Geopolitical Impact - The February CPI data was collected prior to the escalation of geopolitical tensions in Iran, which has led to significant increases in international oil prices, with New York crude futures surpassing $100 per barrel [5]. - The market anticipates that the inflationary effects of rising energy prices will become evident in future CPI data, introducing uncertainty into the U.S. inflation trajectory [5]. Federal Reserve Outlook - Following the CPI release, U.S. financial markets reacted mildly, with slight increases in Treasury yields across various maturities [7]. - The market expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at the upcoming meeting, with a 99.4% probability of no change [9]. - Expectations for rate cuts later in the year have diminished, with the probability of maintaining rates unchanged in June rising to 57.3% from 24.8% a month prior [9]. - Analysts suggest that the stable inflation data will not alter the Fed's monetary policy in the short term, with future inflation trends heavily dependent on developments in the Middle East and energy prices [9].

Group 1 - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February increased by 2.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.5% year-on-year [6] - Following the CPI release, gold prices fell to around $5,170 per ounce, and silver prices dropped by 4%, indicating market reactions to inflation data [1][6] - The yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond reached 4.83%, the highest level since February 10, contributing to a strengthening dollar index approaching the 100 mark [4] Group 2 - U.S. stock index futures declined, with the Dow futures down by 0.45%, Nasdaq futures down by 0.19%, and S&P 500 futures down by 0.27%, reflecting market sentiment amid rising inflation concerns [4] - Analysts suggest that the inflation data reflects the situation before military conflicts in the Middle East, indicating potential risks of inflation pressure rebound due to rising international oil prices [6] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may not lower interest rates until July, despite recent non-farm payroll data being significantly below expectations [6]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - In the past week (20260302 - 20260308), US stock market indices and the Hang Seng index declined, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Hang Seng index changing -1.24%, -2.02%, -3.01%, and -3.28% respectively [4] - A - shares generally fell, with energy sectors leading the gainers. The wind all - A index changed -2.30%, and most of the other major A - share indices also declined [5][6] - In the past week, most Chinese government bond yields of various maturities decreased, while the US Treasury yield curve shifted upward overall. The US dollar appreciated [7][8][9] - Gold prices dropped, and crude oil prices soared. Brent crude oil futures prices rose 27.88% to $92.69 per barrel [10] - The February US non - farm payrolls report showed poor employment conditions, and the Fed faces a dilemma. The Fed may have more motivation to cut interest rates but may postpone the timing [11] - Looking ahead, in the A - share market, there are still structural opportunities due to the ongoing Iran situation and the "Two Sessions". In the bond market, the Chinese central bank may cut interest rates in 2026. In the commodity and exchange rate market, the US stagflation may cause the Fed to delay rate cuts, and the US dollar may strengthen [12] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Stock Market - US stocks: The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by -1.24%, -2.02%, and -3.01% respectively in the past week [4] - Hong Kong stocks: The Hang Seng index decreased by -3.28% in the past week [4] - A - shares: The wind all - A index decreased by -2.30%. Among different indices, the decline rates varied, and 7 out of 30 CITIC industries rose, with the petroleum and petrochemical and coal industries leading the gains with a weekly increase of more than 3.0% [6] Bond Market - Chinese government bonds: Most yields of various maturities decreased in the past week. The 10 - year government bond futures contract rose 0.13% compared to February 27, 2026, while the yield of the 10 - year active bond increased by 0.57 BP to 1.7810% compared to February 28, 2026 [7] - US Treasury bonds: The US Treasury yield curve shifted upward overall in the past week. As of March 6, 2026, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 18 BP to 4.15% compared to February 27, 2026 [8] Exchange Rate Market - The US dollar appreciated in the past week. The US dollar index increased by 1.34%, and the exchange rates of the US dollar against the euro, pound, and yen increased by 1.81%, 0.64%, and 1.11% respectively. The exchange rates of the US dollar against offshore and onshore RMB also increased [9] Commodity Market - Gold: Gold prices declined in the past week. London spot gold decreased by 1.81% to $5127.55 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures decreased by 2.70% to $5137.50 per ounce. Domestic gold prices also fell, but to a lesser extent [10] - Crude oil: Brent crude oil futures prices soared 27.88% to $92.69 per barrel in the past week [10] Macroeconomic Situation - The February US non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000, far lower than the expected increase of 58,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, up 0.1% from the previous month. The Fed faces a dilemma due to poor employment and rising inflation expectations [11] Market Outlook - A - shares: The impact of the Iran geopolitical situation may continue, but the "Two Sessions" are expected to release policy benefits. Suggested sectors to focus on include energy, precious metals, shipping, military, and technology [12] - Bond market: The Chinese central bank may cut interest rates in 2026, and the current 10 - year government bond yield around 1.80% has long - term investment value [12] - Commodity and exchange rate: The US stagflation may cause the Fed to delay rate cuts, the US dollar may strengthen, and commodity prices other than crude oil and precious metals may face pressure [12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term precious metals may fluctuate, and continuous attention should be paid to the evolution of the Iranian situation. The market panic was relieved as the US president said the war with Iran was basically over on Monday, but the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran continued, and the market risk - aversion sentiment supported the gold price to some extent. The short - term market has high uncertainty, and investors should control positions and prevent risks [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures rose 1.86% to $5198.70 per ounce, COMEX silver futures rose 4.79% to $88.57 per ounce. The main contract of Shanghai gold rose 0.98% to 1154.88 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver rose 1.67% to 22536 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - On March 10, the holding of the world's largest gold ETF SPDR Gold Trust was 1073.57 tons, an increase of 2.86 tons from the previous trading day. The holding of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 56.34 tons from the previous day, and the current holding was 15654.57 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March was 0.6%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 99.4%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by April was 13.9%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 86.1%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively was 0.1%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by June was 37.5% [1] - Trump said there might be conditional negotiations with Iran. But within Iran, the Iranian foreign minister said the new supreme leader would not negotiate with the US, while the Iranian vice - president said they had not given up on resolving the issue through negotiations [1] - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait will cut production by up to 6.7 million barrels per day in total [1] Market Logic - On Tuesday, the US dollar index fluctuated and closed up 0.23% at 98.94; the yield of the benchmark 10 - year US Treasury bond rose and closed at 4.16%. ICE Brent crude oil first plunged and then rebounded, closing at $91.4 per barrel. The US energy giant ExxonMobil's chief economist warned that the Strait of Hormuz might remain closed for a longer time than the market expected [1] Trading Strategy - The market has high short - term uncertainty, and investors should pay attention to controlling positions and preventing risks [2]