Group 1 - The report highlights the significant advantages of Solid State Transformers (SST) over traditional transformers, indicating a shift in power distribution architecture towards SST technology to meet the increasing power demands of servers [2] - For China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), the report notes a slight improvement in net profit for Q3 2025, with total revenue of 2,113.4 billion yuan, down 10.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 30 billion yuan, down 32.2% year-on-year [3] - China Oilfield Services Limited (COSL) reported a 3.5% year-on-year increase in total revenue for Q3 2025, amounting to 34.85 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 31.3% year-on-year to 3.21 billion yuan [4] Group 2 - Source Pet's Q3 2025 revenue reached 490 million yuan, up 26.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 56.05 million yuan, up 22.3% year-on-year, indicating strong performance in both domestic and international sales [5] - Huali Group reported a slight decline in revenue of 0.3% year-on-year for Q3 2025, with a net profit decrease of 20.7% year-on-year, highlighting challenges in the footwear segment [6] - Agricultural Bank of China achieved a revenue of 550.9 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a net profit of 220.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 3% year-on-year growth [10] Group 3 - The report indicates that the macroeconomic environment is affecting various sectors, with a focus on the ongoing US-China trade tensions impacting negotiations in multiple industries [8] - The bond market is experiencing a contraction in scale, with active bond funds adopting defensive strategies to mitigate risks amid a weakening market [9] - The report emphasizes the resilience of the banking sector, with several banks reporting stable growth in revenue and net profit, alongside strong risk mitigation capabilities [11][12][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report In Q3 2025, under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy and the new public fund fee regulations, the bond market weakened, and the bond fund market scale declined. Active bond funds adopted a "defensive" strategy of reducing leverage and shortening duration. In terms of performance, hybrid secondary bond funds had outstanding returns, while other types of funds showed different degrees of decline. In terms of bond holdings, active bond funds increased their holdings of convertible bonds and reduced their holdings of other bond types. In terms of heavy - held credit bonds, they increased their holdings of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds and reduced their holdings of financial bonds [1][2][3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Overview of the Bond Fund Market in Q3 2025 - The number of bond funds increased, with 3,936 funds at the end of Q3 2025, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 74 funds or 1.92%. The market scale decreased, with a total market scale of 10.69 trillion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.24 trillion yuan or 2.23%. The fund shares had a net redemption of 475.2 billion shares, with a redemption ratio of 4.95% [12]. - In terms of market structure, medium - and long - term pure bond funds dominated the market, accounting for 55.5% of the total scale, followed by passive index bond funds at 14.7% [14]. - Different types of funds had different trends. Pure bond funds and hybrid primary bond funds had net redemptions and a decrease in market scale, while hybrid secondary bond funds and convertible bond funds had net subscriptions and an increase in market scale [17]. 2. Quarterly Performance of Active Bond Funds 2.1 Performance: Significantly Improved Quarterly Returns of Hybrid Secondary Bond Funds - In Q3 2025, the single - quarter weighted average returns of short - term pure bond funds, medium - and long - term pure bond funds, hybrid primary bond funds, and hybrid secondary bond funds were 0.17%, - 0.19%, 0.48%, and 4.31% respectively. Compared with the previous quarter, the return of hybrid secondary bond funds increased by 262.5 BP, while those of other funds decreased [22]. 2.2 Leverage Ratio and Duration: Reducing Leverage and Shortening Duration - At the end of Q3 2025, the single - quarter weighted average leverage ratios of short - term pure bond funds, medium - and long - term pure bond funds, hybrid primary bond funds, and hybrid secondary bond funds were 110.96%, 119.72%, 113.12%, and 108.14% respectively, with quarter - on - quarter decreases [25]. - The weighted average durations of heavy - held bonds were 0.91 years, 2.80 years, 3.16 years, and 3.77 years respectively, also showing quarter - on - quarter decreases [28]. 2.3 Bond Holdings: Increasing Holdings of Convertible Bonds and Reducing Holdings of Other Bond Types - At the end of Q3 2025, the total bond holding market value of active bond funds decreased by 7.66% quarter - on - quarter. Only the market value of convertible bonds held by active bond funds increased quarter - on - quarter, while other bond types decreased to varying degrees [30]. - By fund type, the bond holding scales of pure bond funds and hybrid primary bond funds decreased, while that of hybrid secondary bond funds increased [33]. 3. Analysis of Heavy - Held Credit Bonds of Active Bond Funds 3.1 Urban Investment Bonds: Leading Increase in Holdings in Regions such as Jiangxi and Jiangsu - **Heavy - Held Region Analysis**: At the end of Q3 2025, the market value of heavy - held urban investment bonds by active bond funds was 76.841 billion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 4.344 billion yuan. Regions such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong had large heavy - held market values. Active bond funds increased their holdings in regions such as Jiangxi and Jiangsu and reduced their holdings in regions such as Guangdong and Sichuan [35]. - **Heavy - Held Subject Analysis**: At the end of Q3 2025, active bond funds mainly held high - rated urban investment subjects such as Hunan Expressway, Hanjiang State - owned Assets, and Tianjin Urban Construction. Subjects such as Jiangxi Communications Investment and Hanjiang State - owned Assets had leading increases in holdings [39]. 3.2 Industrial Bonds: Increasing Holdings in Transportation and Real Estate, Reducing Holdings in Petroleum and Petrochemicals and Non - bank Finance - **Heavy - Held Industry Analysis**: At the end of Q3 2025, the market value of heavy - held industrial bonds by active bond funds was 129.823 billion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 8.719 billion yuan. Industries such as non - bank finance, public utilities, and transportation had large holding scales. Active bond funds increased their holdings in industries such as transportation and real estate and reduced their holdings in industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals and non - bank finance [41]. - **Heavy - Held Subject Analysis**: At the end of Q3 2025, active bond funds mainly held AAA - rated central and state - owned enterprises such as Central Huijin, State Grid, and China Guoxin. Subjects such as State Power Investment, China Chengtong, and Beijing Capital Tourism Group had leading increases in holdings [44]. 3.3 Financial Bonds: Leading Reduction in Holdings of Commercial Bank Tier 2 Capital Bonds - **Heavy - Held Variety Analysis**: At the end of Q3 2025, the market value of heavy - held financial bonds by active bond funds was 553.951 billion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 21.666 billion yuan. Ordinary commercial financial bonds and commercial bank tier 2 capital bonds accounted for the main scale. Active bond funds increased their holdings of ordinary commercial financial bonds and TLAC bonds and reduced their holdings of sub - debt, perpetual bonds, and tier 2 capital bonds [46]. - **Heavy - Held Subject Analysis**: At the end of Q3 2025, active bond funds mainly held large state - owned banks and joint - stock banks such as Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and China Everbright Bank. Subjects such as Shanghai Bank, Huatai Securities, and Ping An Bank had leading increases in holdings [49].

Market Overview and Analysis - The primary market saw the issuance of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds amounting to 689.1 billion, 247.2 billion, and 140 billion respectively, with net financing of 23.6 billion, 165.8 billion, and -104.6 billion [1] - Non-financial credit bonds had a total issuance of 457 billion, with a net financing of 140.3 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - Interest rates experienced fluctuations, influenced by factors such as the Fourth Plenary Session, stock-bond dynamics, monetary policy expectations, liquidity conditions, and Sino-US negotiation prospects [2] Liquidity Tracking - The net injection in the open market was 198.1 billion, with a 900 billion MLF renewal scheduled for the following Monday. The liquidity remained loose, with attention on whether the upcoming tax period would cause changes in liquidity [3] Policy and Fundamentals - The Fourth Plenary Session announced seven major economic and social development goals for the 14th Five-Year Plan. The GDP growth for Q3 was 4.8%, in line with expectations, while the cumulative GDP growth for the first three quarters was 5.2%. Industrial output in September exceeded expectations, while fixed asset investment and retail sales were slightly below expectations [4] Overseas Market - Concerns over credit risks in US regional banks have eased, and there are signs of a thaw in Sino-US trade relations. The US CPI for September was below expectations, leading to fluctuations in the US stock market and a rebound in the dollar index [5] Equity Market - The A-share market was positively influenced by expectations of improved Sino-US relations, a focus on "technology industry" during the Fourth Plenary Session, and increased orders for optical modules from North American companies. The Wande All A index rose by 3.47%, with the communication, electronics, and power equipment sectors leading the gains, particularly the communication sector which surged by 11.55%. However, trading volume significantly decreased, with an average daily trading volume of 1.8 trillion, down by 395.54 billion week-on-week. As of October 23, 2025, the total financing balance for All A was 2,433.902 billion, a decrease of 6.2 billion from October 16 [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - The goal of achieving a per capita GDP at the level of moderately developed countries by 2035 suggests that the GDP target for next year may remain around 5%, considering the need for policy redundancy amid future uncertainties. This week, the central bank will participate in the Financial Street Forum, and a Sino-US summit is scheduled, along with a Federal Reserve meeting, indicating a busy macro policy event calendar. The current 10-year government bond yield is at a median level since September, and potential disturbances in the bond market may arise if monetary policy increments fall short of expectations or if the Sino-US talks yield unexpected progress. The market currently exhibits significant uncertainty, with differing views on economic issues. While there is not much pressure from an annual economic target perspective, maintaining stability in the economic trend requires supportive policies. Attention should be paid to the willingness to implement strong domestic demand policies, with bank convertible bonds and dividend-value stocks standing out in terms of risk control, while sectors with limited supply increments and global pricing demand present substantial research value [7]

Core Insights - The overall fund size in China reached 30.46 trillion units by the end of Q3 2025, with a net redemption of 124.76 billion units, representing a decrease of 0.41% [10][11][12] - Despite the overall trend of net redemptions, 45 actively managed equity funds saw net subscriptions exceeding 1 billion units, indicating strong investor interest in high-performing products [2][4][6] Fund Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, 107 actively managed equity funds had net subscriptions over 500 million units, more than doubling from the previous quarter, with mixed funds being the dominant category [4][6] - The top three funds by net subscriptions were: - ICBC Value Select Mixed A: 5.883 billion units, net subscription ratio of 571.02% [5][7] - Huatai-PineBridge Xinxiang Tianli Mixed A: 3.941 billion units, net subscription ratio of 331.24% [5][7] - Yongying Semiconductor Industry Smart Selection Mixed C: 3.219 billion units, net subscription ratio over 180% [5][7] Market Trends - The bond fund category experienced the largest net redemption, shrinking by 505.52 billion units, while mixed and actively managed equity funds also faced significant outflows [10][12] - Conversely, money market funds and QDII funds saw net inflows, with money market funds gaining 450.78 billion units and QDII funds 109.84 billion units, indicating a shift in investor preference [12][13] Fund Categories Overview - The performance of various fund categories in Q3 2025 was as follows: - Stock funds: 35.85 trillion units, net subscription of 331.99 million units [13] - Index funds: 32.43 trillion units, net subscription of 514.74 million units [13] - Actively managed equity funds: 3.43 trillion units, net redemption of 182.75 million units [13] - Mixed funds: 26.64 trillion units, net redemption of 2.18 trillion units, the highest redemption ratio [12][13] - Bond funds: 89.31 trillion units, net redemption of 5.06 trillion units, the largest among all categories [12][13]

Report Summary Key Points of Each Product Steel Products - **Rebar**: On October 27, domestic steel prices mostly rose, with the average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in 31 major cities reaching 3234 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Due to positive macro - expectations, potential balance between supply and demand, and cost support, short - term steel prices may fluctuate upward [1]. - **Iron Ore**: From October 20 - 26, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased. Considering supply, demand, inventory, and macro factors, short - term iron ore prices may fluctuate upward [4]. - **Coke**: The average national ton - coke profit is - 41 yuan/ton. With supply weakening due to cost pressure and demand slightly declining, but with relatively strong iron - water production and cost support, the coke market will fluctuate upward [5]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: Iraq's oil exports are 3.6 million barrels per day. The market is worried about OPEC supply. With upcoming macro - events and sanctions on Russia under observation, oil prices are likely to fluctuate upward this week, being in a stage of short - term geopolitical bullishness versus long - term supply - demand bearishness [2]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: On October 27, the national pig price generally rose. With improved consumption due to cooling and reduced end - of - month slaughter pressure, short - term prices are expected to be strong. Pig futures prices have rebounded, but the upward momentum may be limited [6]. - **Palm Oil**: As of October 24, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil increased. With concerns about the B50 plan and weakening demand while production increases, palm oil prices will face downward pressure in the short term [7]. - **Soybean**: Imported soybean prices are stable, and domestic demand offsets trade - tension pressure, with short - term soybean futures (bean two) stabilizing. Domestic new - season soybeans are strong, with a bullish market sentiment [8]. Precious Metals - **Silver**: The market believes the probability of a 10 - month interest rate cut is 97%. Silver is long - term bullish but short - term downward - fluctuating, with limited downward space [9]. - **Gold**: The weakening of risk - aversion sentiment has led to a significant correction in gold prices. The expected interest rate cut has limited impact. Gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [9]. Financial Products - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: The resumption of open - market treasury bond trading operations by the central bank is a bullish factor for the bond market. However, due to liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw effect, bond market operations are more difficult, with a mid - term slightly bullish outlook [10]. Chemical Products - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market has high production, stable demand, and a slight increase in port inventory. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 2245 [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda ash market is stable, with stable production, general demand, and a slight increase in inventory. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate, with support at 1235 [12]. - **Plastic**: LLDPE supply is expected to remain high, while downstream demand is increasing. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate slightly upward in the short term, with support at 7000 [13]. Report's Core View The report analyzes multiple commodities, including steel, energy, agricultural products, precious metals, financial products, and chemical products. It assesses each commodity's supply, demand, inventory, and macro - factors to predict their short - and medium - term price trends, providing investment suggestions such as short - term trading strategies and risk - management advice. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating.

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in A-shares has led to a withdrawal of funds from the bond market, resulting in an increase in bond yields, while pure bond funds have underperformed compared to bond funds with rights [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares experienced a strong performance in the latter half of last week, supported by favorable news, which caused a shift in funds away from the bond market, leading to an increase in bond yields [2]. - The yield on the 10-year government bond rose from 1.82% to 1.85%, while the yield on the 5-year AAA corporate bond decreased slightly from 2.1% to 2.08% [2]. - The average performance of medium to long-term pure bond funds was only 0.02%, a decline from the previous week, while short-term bond funds averaged 0.04% [2]. Group 2: Fund Performance - Some bond funds with rights achieved significant weekly returns, with the Jin Ying Yuan Feng A fund recording a return of 6.01% and 16 secondary bond funds exceeding 2% in returns [2][6]. - The performance of pure bond funds was disappointing, with many yielding less than those with rights, highlighting a divergence in fund performance [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The market is currently experiencing a "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with expectations of policy changes influencing bond market dynamics, particularly regarding the anticipated "double reduction" policy [1][4]. - Analysts express caution regarding the bond market, suggesting that the potential for further interest rate cuts is limited, and the necessity for aggressive monetary policy is reduced due to existing fiscal tools [4]. - The overall economic environment is expected to remain under pressure in the fourth quarter, with a likelihood of continued adjustments in the bond market [3][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is mainly in a volatile state, influenced by the stock - bond seesaw and liquidity factors. The operation of bond futures is more difficult. In the fourth quarter, the bond market may form a slightly bearish volatile pattern under the action of the stock - bond seesaw [2][30] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock - bond seesaw logic has led the bond market into a continuous downward trend, but on the weekly level, it is still in a high - level volatile trend. On the daily level, it is at the neckline of the long - term high - level volatility and has a demand for a volatile rebound. The combination of liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw logic increases the difficulty of bond market operation [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - On October 27, the central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation with a 1 - year term, and the net MLF injection this month will reach 200 billion yuan, which is the 8th consecutive month of increased MLF renewal [13] - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee announced the goal of achieving significant leaps in economic, technological, national defense, comprehensive national strength and international influence by 2035 [15] - In September, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods in September was 4.1971 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.0% [15][16] - From January to September 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 37.1535 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% [15] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - In September, the overall economic data showed that the endogenous driving force of the economy was strengthening, and the downward pressure on the economy was weakened. If counter - cyclical regulation continues to increase, the economic fundamentals will be continuously bearish for the bond market [17] 3.2 Policy Aspect - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. In August, the narrowing of the M1 - M2 gap indicated that economic activities had increased. The year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing increased slightly, and the monthly new social financing mainly relied on government bond issuance [20] 3.3 Capital Aspect - After July 25, DR007 continued to decline, and the cost of funds decreased. The Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year may open up more space for domestic monetary policy easing, but the adjustment of domestic monetary policy depends on domestic demand. The central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation on October 27 to maintain liquidity [23] 3.4 Supply - demand Aspect - The National Development and Reform Commission will allocate the third batch of funds for the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones this year. The issuance of special bonds and special treasury bonds has basically been realized, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [25] 3.5 Sentiment Aspect - The stock - bond cost - performance ratio has broken through the short - term volatile range and declined, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market. The short - term bonds are more affected by the capital aspect, and the long - term bonds are more affected by the stock - bond seesaw [27] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - After the successful conclusion of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, the A - share market broke through the volatile range and rose. The economic data in September showed that the downward pressure on the economy increased, and counter - cyclical regulation may continue to increase. The bond market operation is difficult under the combined action of the stock - bond seesaw and liquidity. In the fourth quarter, the bond market may be in a slightly bearish volatile pattern [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3 2025, the "deposit shift" boosted the scale of bank wealth management to grow beyond expectations. The market is dominated by fixed - income wealth management products, but hybrid products showed significant growth momentum. The scale of "fixed - income +" wealth management products also increased [1][12][18]. - In Q3 2025, cash and bank deposits were increased on the asset side, and the proportion of bonds decreased. The leverage ratio of wealth management products dropped to a recent low [24][25]. - In the future, the scale of bank wealth management is expected to continue growing due to the "comparison effect" caused by the decline in deposit interest rates. The wealth management industry needs to build a more refined and systematic asset allocation and risk management system [2][27][30]. - In the short term, credit bonds may fluctuate under the influence of factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations, the new public fund fee policy, and the stock - bond seesaw. The short - to - medium - term credit bonds still have allocation value, and long - term and ultra - long - term bonds may have room for spread compression [3][39]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Q3 Bank Wealth Management Market Observation 3.1.1 Liability Side - As of the end of Q3 2025, the total market wealth management product scale was 32.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.42%, and a single - quarter increase of 1.46 trillion yuan in Q3, higher than the same period in history [12]. - The year - on - year growth of wealth management scale deviated from the weekly high - frequency data of Puyi Standard. The large growth in wealth management scale in Q3 with a general performance in the bond market was due to the mismatch between wealth management asset allocation and the bond market structure. Wealth management mainly held short - term credit bonds [15]. - Fixed - income wealth management products dominated the market, while hybrid products showed significant growth in Q3. The scale of "fixed - income +" wealth management products reached 17.83 trillion yuan, accounting for 57.8% of the total wealth management scale [18]. - The proportion of wealth management products of wealth management companies increased quarter by quarter, exceeding 90% at the end of Q3 [20]. 3.1.2 Asset Side - As of the end of Q3 2025, the proportion of cash and bank deposits rose to 27.5%, and the proportion of bonds, the largest allocated asset, decreased to 40.4%, a 1.4 - percentage - point decrease from the end of Q2 [24]. - The leverage ratio of wealth management products dropped to 106.65%, a year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.84 and 0.8 percentage points respectively [25]. 3.1.3 Summary and Outlook - In Q3 2025, the bank wealth management market performed well, with a strong year - on - year scale growth. Fixed - income products contributed the largest scale increment, and the layout of equity - related products increased [26]. - In the future, the scale of bank wealth management is expected to grow, and the wealth management industry needs to build a more refined and systematic asset allocation and risk management system [27][30]. 3.2 Credit Bond Yield Overview - From October 20 - 24, 2025, credit bond yields mostly declined. Non - financial credit bonds performed better than financial bonds, and long - term non - financial credit bonds performed better than short - to - medium - term ones [4][31]. - In terms of different varieties, the yields of urban investment bonds all declined, with long - term bonds performing better. The yields of most industrial bonds declined, and the overall performance was weaker than that of urban investment bonds. The yields of most financial bonds increased [31][32]. 3.3 Primary Market 3.3.1 Issuance Volume - From October 20 - 24, 2025, the credit bond issuance scale increased both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter, and the net financing scale increased quarter - on - quarter and decreased year - on - year. The net financing scale of urban investment bonds and financial bonds increased quarter - on - quarter, while that of industrial bonds decreased [43]. 3.3.2 Issuance Cost - The average credit bond issuance interest rate decreased quarter - on - quarter. The average issuance interest rates of industrial bonds and financial bonds decreased by 0.8bp and 10bp respectively, while that of urban investment bonds increased by 1.3bp [50]. 3.3.3 Issuance Term - The average credit bond issuance term increased quarter - on - quarter. The average issuance terms of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds increased by 0.19 years, 0.04 years, and 0.04 years respectively [51]. 3.3.4 Cancellation of Issuance - From October 20 - 24, 2025, the number and scale of cancelled credit bond issuances increased quarter - on - quarter [52]. 3.4 Secondary Market 3.4.1 Trading Volume - Except for the decline in the trading volume of bank perpetual bonds and insurance sub - bonds, the trading volume of other credit bond varieties rebounded. The trading volume of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds increased by more than 100 billion yuan [59]. 3.4.2 Trading Liquidity - The turnover rates of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds all decreased. For urban investment bonds, the turnover rate of bonds with a term of less than 1 year decreased the most; for industrial bonds, the turnover rates of bonds with terms of less than 1 year, 1 - 3 years, and more than 10 years decreased; for financial bonds, the turnover rates of bonds with terms of 3 - 5 years and 5 - 7 years decreased, while others increased [61]. 3.4.3 Spread Tracking - Except for a slight 1bp widening of the 10 - year AAA - rated urban investment bonds, the spreads of other urban investment bonds narrowed. The 7 - year bonds had the largest narrowing amplitude, up to 10bp [68]. - Except for the widening of the spread of AAA - rated automobile industry in industrial bonds, the spreads of other industries narrowed. The average narrowing amplitude of AAA - rated industrial bonds was slightly smaller than that of AA - rated ones [73]. - The spreads of bank secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds mostly narrowed, and the spreads of securities firm sub - bonds and insurance sub - bonds also mostly narrowed [74][75]. 3.5 Weekly Hot Bonds Overview - The top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of liquidity scores were selected for investors' reference [78]. 3.6 Credit Rating Adjustment Review - According to domestic rating agencies, there were no bond rating adjustments last week [83].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: The US September CPI data led to market expectations of Fed rate - cuts. The strong US dollar is bearish for gold, but gold buying power remains strong. Gold is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with support at 1220. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [2]. - **Rebar**: The medium - long - term over - capacity in the steel industry may be alleviated, but short - term impact is limited. Rebar demand is improving but at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is relatively stable, and demand is supported by high iron - water levels. However, the profit contraction of steel mills and the end of the peak season limit demand. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [5]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is tightening, and demand from downstream and intermediate sectors is strong. The coal price is strong, and the futures price is expected to be supported in the short - term [6]. - **Pigs**: With increased demand due to lower temperatures and reduced slaughter pressure, the pig price may strengthen after adjustment. The futures price is expected to rebound at the bottom in the short - term [7]. - **Palm Oil**: As the traditional production - reduction season approaches in November, the futures price may recover. However, due to expected ample supply, the spot price is under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [7]. - **Soybeans**: Imported soybean spot market is firm, and domestic demand is strong. Bean 2 is expected to stabilize in the short - term. Domestic new - season soybeans are strong [8]. - **Medium - Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: Liquidity is loose, which supports the bond market. But with the stock market breaking through the previous range, the bond market operation is more difficult. It is expected to oscillate with a slightly bearish bias in the medium - term [9]. - **Silver**: US economic data in October is positive, which is bullish for silver. With a high probability of rate - cuts in October, the downside is limited. It is long - term bullish and short - term oscillating [9]. - **PVC**: Domestic PVC production is expected to increase, while demand is entering the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with support at 4695 for the 01 contract. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory is accumulating slightly. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with resistance at 2300. It is recommended to wait for further stabilization [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil market is in a game between short - term geopolitical bullish factors and long - term supply - demand bearish factors. A short - term low - level bullish approach is recommended [11]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - US September CPI rose 3% year - on - year, lower than expected. Core CPI and service inflation slowed. The market fully priced in two 25 - basis - point Fed rate cuts [1]. - The strong US dollar is bearish for gold, but buying power remains strong. Gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [1]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1271 yuan/ton, with stable recent prices. Weekly production is 74.05 tons, down 3.93% week - on - week [2]. - Total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 170.21 tons, up 0.09% week - on - week. The float glass market has stable start - up, rising inventory, and average trading [2]. Rebar - The blast - furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills is 84.71%, up 0.44 percentage points week - on - week. The iron - making capacity utilization rate is 89.94%, down 0.39 percentage points [4]. - Steel mill profitability is 47.62%, down 7.79 percentage points week - on - week. Daily average pig - iron output is 239.9 tons, down 1.05 tons week - on - week [4]. Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 14423.59 tons, up 145.32 tons week - on - week. The daily average port clearance volume is 312.65 tons, down 3.07 tons [5]. - The number of ships at ports is 107, down 17. Supply is stable, and demand is supported by high iron - water levels, but profit contraction affects demand [5]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises is 73.47%, down 0.77%. Daily coke production is 64.61 tons, down 0.68 tons [6]. - Coke inventory is 58.64 tons, up 1.35 tons. Coking coal inventory is 1029.70 tons, up 32.33 tons. Supply is tightening, and demand is strong [6]. Pigs - As of October 24, the average slaughter weight of pigs is 123.21 kg, down 0.22 kg. The weekly slaughter start - up rate is 35.3%, down 0.34% [7]. - The profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 279.65 yuan/head, up 67.28 yuan/head. The self - breeding profit is - 149.54 yuan/head, up 53.28 yuan/head [7]. Palm Oil - The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 25 is 1283814 tons, down 0.4%. The futures price may recover in November, but spot price is under pressure [7]. Soybeans - In the 43rd week (October 18 - 24), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills is 236.74 tons, with a start - up rate of 65.13%. The 44th - week start - up rate is expected to decline slightly [8]. Medium - Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan of MLF operations on October 27, with a net investment of 200 billion yuan. Liquidity is loose, but the bond market operation is difficult due to the stock market [9]. Silver - The US October manufacturing, service, and composite PMI are all better than expected. Economic data is positive for silver, and the downside is limited due to expected rate - cuts [9]. PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC is 4600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate is 76.57%, down 0.12% week - on - week [10]. - Social inventory is 103.52 tons, down 0.13% week - on - week. Domestic production is expected to increase, and demand is entering the off - season [10]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The domestic weekly capacity utilization rate is 87.4%, down 2.13% [11]. - Port inventory is 151.22 tons, up 2.08 tons week - on - week. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [11]. Crude Oil - After the US sanctions on Russian oil companies, Reliance Industries stops buying Russian oil. The market is in a game between short - term geopolitical and long - term supply - demand factors [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current probability of further interest rate cuts is low, and even if a cut occurs, its downward push on interest rates will be limited. It is recommended to approach the bond market with a volatile mindset and be cautious about chasing up [1][16][17] - After the release of inflation data lower than market expectations, the market generally believes that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates next week. However, inflation risks are rising, and the market has overlooked the possibility of an inflation rebound [4][19][26] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. One - Week Viewpoints Q1: Impact of "double - cut" expectations on the bond market - This week (2025.10.20 - 2025.10.24), the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond rose 3.5bp from 1.745% last Friday to 1.78% [1][12] - Throughout the week, the bond market traded around trade - war news and expectations of further monetary policy easing. The trade - war was highly affected by external factors, while the expectation of monetary policy easing was triggered by news of small and medium - sized banks lowering deposit rates and weak economic data [16] Q2: Future changes in US Treasury yields after the release of a series of US economic data - This week (10.20 - 10.24), the short - and long - term US Treasury yields slightly recovered from the previous downward trend. US stocks rose, and the gold price dropped significantly. The overseas market's risk - aversion sentiment declined marginally [2][19] - In September, the US CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, falling short of market expectations across the board. The US Markit PMI in October reached the second - highest level this year, exceeding expectations. The September CPI data strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the market expects two more cuts this year [4][19][22] 2. Domestic and Overseas Data Aggregation 2.1 Liquidity Tracking - From 2025/10/20 to 2025/10/24, the total net injection in the open - market operations was 781 billion yuan [30] 2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - The total transaction area of commercial housing generally increased. Steel prices showed mixed trends, and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices all rose [56][58] - Compared with half a month ago, both short - and long - term US Treasury yields declined. The term spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury bonds decreased, while that between the 10 - year and 3 - month US Treasury bonds increased [75][76][79] 3. One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 79 local government bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 247.228 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 80.51 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 165.751 billion yuan. The main investment directions were comprehensive, urban and rural infrastructure construction, and shantytown renovation [86] 3.2 Secondary Market Overview - This week, the stock of local government bonds was 53.64 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 33.994 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.63%. The top three provinces with the most actively traded local government bonds were Guizhou, Guangdong, and Shandong [102] 3.3 This Month's Local Government Bond Issuance Plan - No detailed content provided other than the plan exists 4. One - Week Review of Credit Bonds 4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 527 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance of 468.291 billion yuan, a total repayment of 335.832 billion yuan, and a net financing of 132.459 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.204 billion yuan compared with last week [107] 4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bonds decreased by 0.73bp, medium - term notes increased by 3.91bp, enterprise bonds increased by 47.45bp, and corporate bonds decreased by 7.76bp [119] 4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - This week, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 360.658 billion yuan [120] 4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds all decreased [123][124][126] 4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes narrowed comprehensively, those of enterprise bonds generally narrowed, and those of urban investment bonds narrowed comprehensively [128][132][134] 4.6 Rating Spreads - The rating spreads of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes generally narrowed, those of enterprise bonds showed a differentiated trend, and those of urban investment bonds generally narrowed [136][139][144] 4.7 Trading Activity - This week, the top five most actively traded bonds in each bond type are listed in the report, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, reaching 226.81 billion yuan [149][150] 4.8 Issuer Credit Rating Changes - There were no bonds with upgraded ratings or outlooks this week [151]