CPI Analysis - In September 2025, the CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.3%, a slight improvement from the previous month's -0.4% and better than the market expectation of -0.1%[2] - The core CPI rose to 1.0% year-on-year, up from 0.9% in the previous month, driven by increases in prices of gold and durable goods[3] - Food prices continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%, primarily due to falling pork prices, which dropped by 0.7% month-on-month[4] PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.3% in September from 2.9% in August, slightly better than the market expectation of -2.4%[2] - The PPI remained stable month-on-month at 0% for two consecutive months, indicating a stabilization after previous declines[6] - Key sectors such as coal, steel, and photovoltaic industries showed price stabilization, contributing to the reduced PPI decline[6] Future Outlook - CPI is expected to turn positive in the fourth quarter as the impact of last year's high base fades and food price pressures diminish[8] - The PPI is anticipated to continue its upward trend, but the improvement may be limited due to weakening demand and ongoing international oil price declines[8] - The seasonal demand for pork may support prices, potentially leading to a price turning point by mid-next year if breeding stock continues to decrease[8]

评论： 通胀数据快评 PPI 环比连续两个月为 0 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 证券研究报告 | 2025年10月15日 事项： 10 月 15 日，国家统计局公布数据显示，中国 9 月 CPI 同比-0.3%，预期-0.2%，前值-0.4%；环比 0.1%， 预期 0.2%，前值 0%。中国 9 月 PPI 同比下降 2.3%，预期下降 2.3%，前值下降 2.9%；环比继续持平。 国内价格改善迹象延续。从本期数据来看，海外通胀仍对国内价格改善起到一定支撑作用，例如 PPI 当中 偏海外定 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article emphasizes that the recent CPI decline of 0.3% is misleading, primarily due to food prices dragging down the overall index, with pork prices dropping by 17%, fresh vegetables by 13.7%, and eggs by 13.5% [3] - The focus should be on the core CPI, which, excluding food and energy, has increased by 1% year-on-year, marking the first return to this level in 19 months, indicating a recovery in consumer demand for durable goods like home appliances and electronics [3][4] - The PPI has decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, but the rate of decline has narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, suggesting that the industrial sector is stabilizing and moving away from aggressive price competition [3][4] Group 2 - The article suggests that the current data reflects a gradual warming in the economy, with the core CPI indicating real demand recovery and the PPI showing a shift from harmful competition to healthy development within industries [4] - Looking ahead, it is anticipated that the October CPI may turn positive due to a lower base from last year, and the PPI is expected to stabilize or even slightly increase, indicating a more stable economic environment [4] - Investors are advised to focus on the warming segments within the core CPI, such as home appliances and consumer electronics, as well as the stabilizing industrial sectors within the PPI, rather than short-term fluctuations in food prices [4]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In September, CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing from 0.4% to 0.3%[1] - Food prices rose by 0.7% month-on-month, while year-on-year they decreased by 4.4%, contributing approximately 0.83 percentage points to the CPI decline[1] - Core CPI remained flat month-on-month and increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth[1] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In September, PPI remained flat month-on-month and the year-on-year decline narrowed to -2.3% from -2.9%[2] - Production demand improved, supporting price increases in some energy and raw material sectors[2] - The coal processing price rose by 3.8% month-on-month, while the prices for coal mining and washing increased by 2.5%[2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The improvement in CPI may continue into October due to tailwind factors, with a focus on the progress of pig production capacity reduction[2] - The real estate market remains weak, with property sales area and sales value down 4.7% and 7.3% year-on-year, respectively[2] - M1 growth has been rising, which is expected to support PPI improvement, although the overall PPI is unlikely to turn positive this year[2]

21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭 见习记者冉黎黎 北京报道 10月15日，国家统计局发布的数据显示，9月份全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比下降0.3%，环比上 涨0.1%；工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）同比下降2.3%，环比继续持平。值得注意的是，扣除食品和 能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.0%，涨幅连续第5个月扩大，为近19个月以来涨幅首次回到1%；PPI同比 降幅较上月收窄0.6个百分点，同比降幅连续两个月收窄。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读称，CPI环比由平转涨；同比下降0.3%，降幅比上月收窄0.1个 百分点。CPI同比下降，主要是翘尾影响所致。PPI环比连续两个月持平，同比降幅收窄，除受上年同期 对比基数走低影响外，我国各项宏观政策效果持续显现，一些行业价格呈现积极变化。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬对21世纪经济报道记者表示，9月份，得益于消费潜力释放、产业结构 升级和市场竞争秩序持续优化，物价延续修复态势。 中泰证券研究所政策团队首席分析师杨畅对21世纪经济报道记者表示，PPI呈现环比持平，由于上年基 数继续走低，使得同比降幅出现收窄。由于生产资料价格指数较PPI同比增速存在较为明显的提前 ...

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9月中国PPI同比降幅收窄 部分行业产能治理见效 中新社北京10月15日电 (记者 王恩博)中国国家统计局15日公布，9月份，中国工业生产者出厂价格指数 (PPI)同比下降2.3%，降幅比上月收窄0.6个百分点；环比继续持平。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟分析称，除受上年同期对比基数走低影响外，中国各项宏观政策效 果持续显现，一些行业价格呈现积极变化。 其中，部分行业产能治理成效显现，市场竞争秩序持续优化，价格同比降幅收窄。9月份，煤炭加工、 黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、煤炭开采和洗选业、光伏设备及元器件制造、电池制造、非金属矿物制品 业价格同比降幅比上月分别收窄8.3个、3.4个、3.0个、2.4个、0.5个和0.4个百分点，上述6个行业对PPI 同比的下拉影响比上月减少约0.34个百分点。 产业结构升级和消费潜力释放，则带动相关行业价格同比上涨。9月份，飞机制造价格同比上涨1.4%， 电子专用材料制造价格同比上涨1.2%，可穿戴智能设备制造价格同比上涨0.1%。提振消费等政策效应 继续显现，品质化、升级类消费需求释放，工艺美术及礼仪用品制造价格同比上涨14.7%，营养食品制 造价格同比上涨1.8%。 从 ...

Group 1: Inflation Data - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a slight narrowing of the decline compared to August[1] - The month-on-month CPI increased by 0.1%, slightly higher than the same period last year[1] - The food CPI rose by 0.7% month-on-month but fell by 4.4% year-on-year, close to the August decline[5] Group 2: PPI Trends - The PPI remained flat month-on-month for two consecutive months and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline continuing to narrow[2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals increased, while the decline in building materials prices narrowed[2] - The recent external uncertainty, including potential 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, has not significantly altered domestic economic and price trends[2] Group 3: Core CPI Insights - The core CPI increased by 1% year-on-year in September, continuing its upward trend over the past few months[5] - Prices of durable goods, such as household appliances and communication equipment, have recently shown signs of recovery[5] - Other goods and services have seen significant price increases, influenced by rising gold prices[5]

Core Insights - The article highlights that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains low in September, but core inflation is showing signs of recovery, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is experiencing a narrowing decline, indicating marginal improvement in industrial demand [1][2]. CPI Analysis - In September, the CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month but decreased by 0.3% year-on-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth and the first time in 19 months that it has surpassed 1% [2][4]. - The decline in CPI is primarily driven by food prices, which fell by 4.4% year-on-year, with significant drops in pork, fresh vegetables, and eggs, down 17.0%, 13.7%, and 13.5% respectively [6][4]. - Analysts suggest that the high base effect will gradually diminish, and there is potential for the CPI to turn positive year-on-year within the year [7]. PPI Analysis - The PPI remained flat month-on-month and saw a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, with the rate of decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][10]. - The improvement in PPI is attributed to the "anti-involution" policies that have led to price stabilization in several industries, including coal and steel, with coal processing prices rising by 3.8% month-on-month [9][10]. - The overall market environment is improving due to regulatory measures aimed at curbing disorderly competition, which is expected to enhance industrial capacity utilization and support a re-inflationary trend [11].

新华财经北京10月15日电（王春霞安娜）国家统计局10月15日发布的数据显示，9月份，居民消费价格 指数（CPI）环比上涨0.1%，同比下降0.3%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.0%，涨幅连续 第5个月扩大。工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比继续持平；同比下降2.3%，降幅比上月收窄0.6个 百分点。 专家分析，得益于消费潜力释放、产业结构升级和市场竞争秩序持续优化，9月份，物价延续修复态 势。 CPI同比下降 "9月份，消费市场运行总体平稳。"国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟表示。 9月份CPI同比下降，董莉娟分析，主要是翘尾影响所致。本月CPI下降0.3%的同比变动中，翘尾影响约 为-0.8个百分点，今年价格变动的新影响约为0.5个百分点。 分类别看，食品和能源价格下降。其中，食品价格下降4.4%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，影响CPI同 比下降约0.83个百分点，是影响CPI同比下降的主要因素。食品中，羊肉价格为连续下降44个月后首次 转涨。能源价格下降2.7%，影响CPI同比下降约0.20个百分点。 核心CPI持续改善。数据显示，9月份，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.0% ...