Macro and Strategy - The report discusses the "anti-involution" policy aimed at addressing overcapacity and disorderly competition, marking a significant shift in the construction of a unified national market [6][8] - The policy evolution is divided into three phases, with the current phase focusing on systematic implementation to eliminate local protectionism and market segmentation [6][7] - The report emphasizes the need for administrative coordination to break down local protection and industry barriers, while also advocating for a long-term focus on reasonable profit margins for enterprises [8][9] Industry and Company - The electronic industry report highlights the rapid emergence of AI applications, with a focus on the computing power chain becoming a central investment theme [16] - The automotive industry report notes that the penetration rate of NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) in urban areas has exceeded 20%, with significant investments in autonomous driving technologies [23][24] - The agricultural sector report indicates a rise in potassium fertilizer contract prices and increased demand for phosphate rock driven by energy storage needs [3] - The real estate sector in Hong Kong shows signs of recovery, with a 21% increase in private residential transaction volume in 2025, marking the second-highest level since 2013 [33][34] - The report on public REITs indicates a continued divergence in performance across different asset types, with a strong long-term allocation value expected as the market matures [10][11] Investment Strategies - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from policy support and strong fundamentals, such as affordable housing and new infrastructure related to digital economy upgrades [10][11] - In the automotive sector, recommendations include investing in companies with strong new product cycles and those involved in intelligent driving technologies [26][29] - The report advises on maintaining a balanced asset allocation strategy, particularly in light of potential market volatility and economic recovery signals [12][13]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 （1）政策演进分为三个阶段，2023 年初-2024 年 6 月，中央点明相关风险， 2024 年 7 月-2025 年 6 月中央首次提出防范"内卷式"恶性竞争，部分行业 开展自律探索但缺乏协同与刚性约束，2025 年 7 月至今为系统化实施期。 （2）核心定位方面，反内卷核心是破解地方保护主义与市场分割导致的资 源错配，与统一大市场形成双向支撑，前者为后者扫清不当竞争障碍，后者 为前者提供制度框架，共同服务于高质量发展。 实施特征看： （1）实施特征方面，呈现部委协同治理、行业自律为基、产能价格双控、 甄别标准多元四大特点。 （2）行业治理模式方面，煤炭、钢铁等传统上游行业以行政干预为主，多 晶硅、光伏等新兴及下游领域以行业自律为主，部分领域采用行政与自律结 合的模式。 （3）典型案例方面，光伏产业作为新兴产业内卷代表，经历"自律失败-政 策加力-实质推进"历程，2025 年政策加码后通过多重举措规范竞争，但下 游并网增速下滑、终端需求疲软导致硅料等环节提价压力难以传导，制约政 策效果。 宏观经济深度报告 反内卷系列一：将"反内卷"进行到底 反内卷政策是决策层针对 ...

美国：沃什提名后引发了反向交易 国信证券主要观点如下： 当市场预期全年降息的逻辑过于一致时，沃什的提名引发了缩表的预期并带来了美元指数的反弹。当下 为此担忧还尚早，由于美国上半年的时薪、消费、就业压力均较大，且上半年通胀的压力不大，故而降 息的必要性依然较高；另外，关于缩表的更多信息要到5月份主席换届之后才将逐渐清晰。 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，1月美股上涨幅度显著小于新兴市场，将美元指数反弹看成 是阶段性，26年上半年依然认为新兴市场机会更大。但有两个风险需要跟踪：一是原油价格因地缘冲突 的大幅上涨；二是长债利率继续向上大幅攀升。美元指数反弹，美债利率上行一定程度上对港股的资金 面产生负面影响。但人民币升值依旧，港股业绩稳健上修，以及并不认为美元指数反弹能够持续，故而 依然看好港股后续的行情。板块方面，建议关注AI、PPI方向原材料及工业等。 1、AI方向：AI方向产生分化，景气部分是半导体、云计算、算力链，而应用方向短期受到外卖战、去 年筹码较为拥挤的影响表现不佳，随着外卖战的减弱以及价格的回调，加之大模型应用场景的不断丰 富，AI应用依然是2026年的战略方向之一。 2、PPI方向的原材料 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 港股 2 月投资策略 优于大市 预计沃什的缩表交易不会持续，继续看好春季行情 3、消费领域：消费板块估值处于过去十年 1%分位数，市场预期过低且 后续有持续的改善空间，该板块的胜在稳健，而且走势相对独立，受国 际局势动荡影响较小； 4、能源：大宗商品的涨价将从贵金属、金属，逐步蔓延到能源、航运 等领域，也值得关注，尤其是能源资产价格尚处在低位，并且可以对冲 地缘局势的不确定性； 5、创新药：创新药业绩平稳，值得继续持有，后续一旦出现新 BD 项目 的释放，板块还有修复空间。 风险提示：地缘政治的不确定性，美国关税政策的不确定性，海外降息 幅度的不确定性，部分行业竞争格局的不确定性。 美国：沃什提名后引发了反向交易。当市场预期全年降息的逻辑过于一致 时，沃什的提名引发了缩表的预期并带来了美元指数的反弹。我们认为 当下为此担忧还尚早，由于美国上半年的时薪、消费、就业压力均较大，且 上半年通胀的压力不大，故而降息的必要性依然较高；另外，关于缩表的更 多信息要到 5 月份主席换届之后才将逐渐清晰。 今年 1 月份，美股上涨幅度显著小于新兴市场，因此我们认为将美元指数的 反弹看 ...

Economic Outlook for January Industry Overview - The report focuses on the economic outlook for January, highlighting key indicators such as CPI, PPI, and financial forecasts related to the Chinese economy [1] Key Points and Arguments Price Predictions - January CPI is projected to increase by 0.6% year-on-year (previous value: 0.8%), with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% (previous value: 0.2%) [1] - For industrial products, January PPI is expected to decrease by 1.8% year-on-year (previous value: -1.9%), with a month-on-month decrease of 0.3% (previous value: 0.2%) [1] Financial Forecasts - In January, new RMB loans are expected to reach 5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 130 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate falling by 0.2 percentage points to 6.2% [1] - New social financing in January is projected to be 6.9 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 98 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate declining by 0.2 percentage points to 8.1% [1] - M2 growth rate is expected to be 8.5%, unchanged from the previous month; M1 growth rate is projected to be 2.2%, down from 3.8%, a decline of 1.6 percentage points [1] Future Monetary Policy Predictions - Economic growth and the promotion of reasonable price recovery will be key considerations for monetary policy throughout 2026, alongside financial stability [1] - A total easing operation of 25-50 basis points in reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and a 10 basis point interest rate cut is anticipated, with a gradual approach and infrequent adjustments [1] - Structural policy tools will continue to be emphasized, with a focus on guiding credit structure and supporting areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises [1] Important but Overlooked Content - There is a risk that an escalation of geopolitical conflicts could unexpectedly boost China's economic performance by addressing overcapacity issues [1] - The potential for policy implementation to fall short of expectations is highlighted as a risk factor [1]

● 经济前瞻指标：维持下行判断。 根据本月更新的经济前瞻指标模型提示，2026年2月处于2025年12月以来下降周期的初期，预计未来将持续下行。 ● 低波因子表现回归、形成共振。 按照定量指标的结果，目前经济出现转弱、流动性略偏松，信用指标略好，微观映射中经济（盈利预期）中等，流动性也为正，信用则继续 修正为偏弱，因此宏观各维度的方向继续为 经济偏弱、流动性偏松和信用收缩 ，与上期一致。本期我们主要按照对经济不敏感、对流动性敏感、对信用不敏感来选择得分前三 的因子，目前成长价值都无明显偏好，由于沪深300中低波动率因子回归，当前其成为宏观、动量选中的共振因子；中证500中去除反转因子，增配小市值，低波同样形成共 振；中证1000维持成长、低波的共振。 ● 大类资产配置观点：小幅配置美股。 结合当前指标，修正后目前经济偏弱、流动性偏松、信用收缩，债券的观点好转，但受其他资产影响仓位仍偏低，黄金虽然上周下跌但 目前基于动量维持配置。 ● 流动性：维持略偏松。 1月我国短端利率进一步有所回落，长端利率仍略高于均线，但利率信号保持宽松；货币量方面，货币投放量回升到0以上，但未突破1倍标准差，信 号维持中性，而超储率仍 ...

Market Overview and Analysis - The issuance scale of government bonds, local bonds, and policy financial bonds in the primary market last week was 0 billion, 439.3 billion, and 185 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of -113.3 billion, 310.9 billion, and 183 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) had a total issuance scale of 71.8 billion, with a net financing amount of 52.6 billion. Non-financial credit bonds had a total issuance scale of 294.5 billion, with a net financing amount of 149.8 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - The sentiment in the bond market continues to recover, with the yield on 10-year government bonds approaching 1.8%. Key influencing factors include institutional behavior, real estate policies, and stock market volatility [2] - The liquidity situation is tightening due to accelerated local bond issuance and month-end disturbances, with R001 and R007 rising by 4.3 basis points and 10.4 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [2][8] Policy and Fundamentals - The manufacturing PMI for January recorded 49.3, indicating a further decline in economic sentiment. High-frequency data shows stable performance on the production side at the beginning of the year, slight improvement in real estate demand, and price differentiation in food and a pullback in the prices of non-ferrous metals [3][9] Overseas Market - President Trump announced the nomination of hawkish member Kevin Walsh for the next Federal Reserve Chair. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds closed at 4.26%, up 2 basis points from the previous week [4][10] Equity Market - Last week, A-shares experienced a pullback after reaching a peak, with the total A-share index down by 1.59%. There was sector divergence, with military, automotive, and computer sectors leading the decline, while the non-ferrous sector fell sharply after extreme trading conditions. The average daily trading volume increased to 3.06 trillion, up by 264.3 billion from the previous week. As of January 29, 2026, the total financing balance for all A-shares was 27,221.87 billion, an increase of 14.679 billion from January 22 [5][11] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - In February, the short-term downward space for bond market yields may be limited as the 10-year government bond approaches the lower range of 1.8-1.9%. There is expected to be an increase in profit-taking demand. The supply-demand dynamics in the bond market are anticipated to change, with local bond issuance accelerating again. Seasonal tightening pressure on liquidity before the Spring Festival remains a concern. Overall, the bond market's supply-demand performance at the beginning of 2026 is better than previously expected, with insufficient social credit demand and a slowdown in government bond supply growth. The banking sector's stabilization supports high demand for bond allocation, particularly in the long end, which is under less pressure than previously judged at the end of last year. The bond market is expected to show high certainty in the short and medium term, with long-end fluctuations. Potential directional changes should focus on external inflation transmission and real estate stabilization. There are slightly positive signals in real estate in January, but sustainability remains to be observed in the spring. The PPI for non-ferrous and energy prices shows a trend of rapid recovery [6][12]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive sentiment towards the A-share market, with the Hedge Fund Manager A-share Confidence Index at 125.50, reflecting a 0.45% increase from January 2026 [2][5]. Core Insights - The confidence index shows an upward trend, suggesting that hedge fund managers have increased confidence in the A-share market for February 2026 compared to January 2026 [2][5]. - The average position of private equity managers in subjective long positions is reported at 79%, which is a 1% increase from the end of December 2025 [5][7]. - The report highlights that 94% of private equity funds are positioned at 50% or more, with 24.6% fully invested or using leverage, a slight decrease of 0.2% from the previous month [5][8]. Summary by Sections A-share Confidence Index and Private Equity Positions - The A-share Confidence Index for February 2026 is 125.50, up 0.45% from January 2026, indicating a rise in confidence among private equity managers [2][5]. - The average position of subjective long strategy private equity funds is 79%, up 1% from December 2025 [5][7]. - 94% of private equity funds are above 50% in their positions, with 48.1% in the 80% or more range, an increase of 2.8% from the previous month [5][8]. Confidence Indicators - The trend expectation confidence indicator for February 2026 is 134.94, up 1.0% from the previous month, with 5.2% of fund managers extremely optimistic [13][14]. - 61.3% of fund managers are optimistic, a rise of 2.7%, while 32% hold a neutral view, down 2% [13][14]. - The investment plan indicator for position adjustments is 111.34, down 0.6%, with 67.7% of managers planning to maintain their positions [13][14]. Market Review and Outlook - In 2025, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 485.186 billion, a decrease of 3.8% year-on-year, with private investment down 6.4% [17]. - The retail sales total for 2025 was 501.202 billion, reflecting a 3.7% increase year-on-year, with online retail sales growing by 8.6% [18]. - The report notes a stable export performance, with total exports for 2025 reaching 377.187 billion USD, showing resilience against external pressures [19].

Group 1: PMI Overview - The comprehensive PMI index for January 2026 is 49.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The manufacturing PMI is at 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in the sector[3] - The service sector PMI is 49.5%, reflecting a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points[3] Group 2: Price Trends - The manufacturing raw material purchase price index increased by 3.0 percentage points to 56.1%, indicating accelerated expansion[3] - The factory price index rose by 1.7 percentage points to 50.6%, marking the first time in 20 months it has exceeded the critical point[3] - The service sector sales price index improved by 0.8 percentage points to 48.9%[3] Group 3: Sector Performance - High-tech and equipment manufacturing PMIs are at 52.0% and 50.1%, respectively, remaining above the expansion threshold[3] - The construction sector PMI fell to 48.8%, a decrease of 4 percentage points, influenced by low temperatures and the upcoming Spring Festival[3] - The construction sector's new orders and business activity expectation indices dropped by 7.3 and 7.6 percentage points, respectively[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index will decline while bonds will rebound. Stock index futures will see a decline in trading volume below 3 trillion, and the stock market will experience an oscillating decline. For treasury bond futures, due to sufficient monetary liquidity and a decline in domestic market interest rates, long positions in treasury bonds can be held lightly [122][124] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Shanghai 50 and CSI 300**: These indices are oscillating at high levels [9] - **CSI 500 and 10 - year Treasury Bonds**: The CSI 500 has fallen from high levels, and treasury bond futures have rebounded slightly [15][16] 3.2 Market Momentum Analysis - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 have all increased [20][23] - **Margin Trading Balance**: The margin trading balance exceeds 2.5 trillion [27] - **Turnover Rate**: The turnover rates of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 are stable, while those of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have significantly declined [30] - **CSI 300 Sector**: The sectors are relatively consistent. The ALPHA of the energy, materials, and telecommunications sectors is positive, while that of the industrial, optional, consumer, financial, pharmaceutical, and public sectors is negative throughout the cycle [36][39] - **Newly - Listed Companies**: In December, the number of listed companies increased by a net of 13 [47] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Monetary Market Indicators** - **Treasury Bond IRR**: The quarterly IRR of 10 - year treasury bond futures has significantly declined, while that of 5 - year treasury bond futures is stable [77][80] - **Inter - bank Repurchase Rate**: The inter - bank repurchase weighted interest rate has slightly declined [84] - **Shibor**: The short - term Shibor has slightly declined [89] - **Economic Indicators** - **CPI - PPI**: In December, the CPI was 0.8%, showing a slight rebound, and the PPI growth rate reached - 1.9% [93] - **PMI**: In December, the PMI fell to 50.1, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2, indicating weak economic recovery [98] - **Consumption**: In December, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.9%, and consumer data declined. However, consumer confidence is trending upwards [104][108] - **Monetary Supply**: In December, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.5%, and the growth of credit accelerated. M1 was 3.8%. The newly - added RMB loans were 910 billion [111][115] 3.4 Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: The trading volume of the stock market will shrink below 3 trillion. Policy adjustments and regulatory actions will lead to an oscillating decline in the stock index [124] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Due to sufficient monetary liquidity and a decline in domestic market interest rates, the 10 - year treasury bond yield has fallen to around 1.8090%. Long positions in treasury bonds can be held lightly [124]