本报记者 孟珂 7月9日，国家统计局发布数据显示，上半年，全国居民消费价格（CPI）比上年同期下降0.1%，工业生产者出厂价格 （PPI）比上年同期下降2.8%。 6月份，扩内需、促消费政策持续显效，CPI同比由5月份下降转为上涨0.1%；环比下降0.1%，降幅比5月份收窄0.1个百分 点；扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比继续回升，上涨0.7%。PPI环比下降0.4%，降幅与5月份相同，同比下降3.6%，降幅比5 月份扩大0.3个百分点。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟分析称，CPI同比由降转涨主要受工业消费品价格有所回升影响。 冯琳表示，在国际油价回升背景下，6月份PPI环比跌幅与5月份持平，同比跌幅进一步扩大，主因受国内需求偏弱而供给 充足影响，煤炭、钢材、水泥等能源和工业品价格加速下行。另外，受关税政策和外需放缓影响，部分出口导向型行业价格下 行压力加大。 温彬预计，短期内PPI改善程度有限，走出负区间仍需时日，全年同比涨幅约为-2.3%。 东方金诚研究发展部执行总监冯琳表示，6月份CPI同比由负转正，主要推动力量是当月蔬菜价格同比降幅显著收窄，以及 6月份国际原油价格上冲带动国内能源价格同比由负转 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a fixed - income review report titled "Why is the Divergence Trend between CPI and PPI Intensifying? - Review of June Price Data" dated July 9, 2025 [1][2] - The chief analyst is Yan Ziqi, and the analyst is Hong Ziyan [2] Group 2: Data Observation CPI Data - In June, CPI was up 0.1% year - on - year, rising 0.2 pct from the previous month and moving from negative to positive. The month - on - month CPI decreased by 0.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 pct from the previous month and the value being at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [2] - Core CPI continued to rise, indicating a possible demand recovery, but it was uneven. The year - on - year increase in CPI was stronger than that of core CPI mainly due to the reduced drag from the energy item. After removing the impact of food and energy, core inflation continued to rise year - on - year, reflecting a demand recovery. However, the recovery of consumer demand was mainly supported by sub - items such as transportation, communication, rent, water and electricity, and household appliances, while CPI in areas such as clothing, education, tourism, and household services decreased month - on - month [3] - Service CPI continued to grow, and consumer goods CPI continued to recover. The demand structure continued to shift from food to consumption and services. The decline in consumer CPI narrowed, and service CPI had been growing for 5 months, with the year - on - year value remaining at 0.5% as in the previous month. Food prices remained stable, and the increase in vegetable prices led to a narrowing of the decline in food CPI [3] PPI Data - The month - on - month PPI of consumer goods weakened. The reason was that during the subsidy gap period, the path for demand to spread from policy - driven areas to other consumer goods areas slowed down compared with the previous month. Durable consumer goods declined month - on - month in June [4] - External demand suppressed the prices of the processing industry, while the input factor of international crude oil drove the price recovery of upstream industries, and PPI entered a weak equilibrium state. In June, the decline in external demand orders in the PMI indicated a weakening of external demand, leading to a month - on - month decline in the PPI of the processing industry. High temperatures restricted infrastructure construction, resulting in demand lagging behind material supply. The decline in coal prices due to new energy substitution and over - capacity continued to reduce PPI prices, but the increase in international crude oil prices repaired the drag on domestic related industries, and deflation in upstream industries such as mining and raw material industries eased [4] Group 3: In - depth Perspective From the Perspective of Resident Income - Since March, the year - on - year decline in rent has narrowed to - 0.1% and remained unchanged for 4 consecutive months. The stable and flat trend of rent may indicate that the income improvement trend has stalled, and income recovery is the core driving force for the recovery of total demand and the return of price levels to positive [6] From the Perspective of Corporate Activity - In June, the year - on - year price of pork dropped to - 8.5%, and the month - on - month price dropped to - 1.2%. The decline in pork prices was mainly due to oversupply and also reflected a contraction in pork demand in June, suggesting a possible structural decline in factory labor demand. The continuous squeeze on corporate profits in previous months still had a lagging impact on the economy, and the significant decline in the PMI of small enterprises and employment in the manufacturing and service industries in June confirmed the contraction in pork demand. The month - on - month decline in liquor prices was 0.3%, the same as the average in the past 5 years, implying that the business activity of small enterprises remained weak [6] From the Perspective of Corporate Price Transmission - The increase in household appliance prices in June may be an illusion during the policy window period. The month - on - month increase in household appliance CPI was likely due to manufacturers adjusting prices during the subsidy gap period. The price model of leading brands was to "raise the marked price and offset with subsidies" to achieve a nominal price increase. In June, the subsidy amount in many places was exhausted, leading to a decrease in the subsidy part and an increase in the final product price. The price increase during the subsidy gap period may be a game behavior to transfer inventory pressure [7] High - frequency Data - International oil prices showed a downward trend, and PPI would face downward pressure in the next stage. The marginal price of Nanhua industrial products began to rise, but the price of rebar continued to decline. Although the third batch of 300 billion dual - purpose funds had been issued, high - temperature weather restricted demand release and limited physical construction. Glass prices continued to decline, indicating no improvement in the real estate market [7] Group 4: Future Outlook CPI Outlook - Currently, CPI has achieved an upward breakthrough with a marginal reduction in external interference items, but the demand recovery is uneven, and the recovery trend needs to be consolidated. High - frequency data shows that international oil prices have started to decline, and with the easing of local geopolitical conflicts, it is highly likely that the oil price center will shift downward in July, which may drive next month's CPI down. In July, the next batch of fiscal funds will start to be in place, and the household appliance sub - item of CPI may decline. Due to the slowdown in the transmission to other industries caused by the subsidy gap and the crowding - out of consumption in other areas this month, the price recovery in other areas next month still needs to be observed. From the perspective of corporate activities, the continuous profit compression pattern has led to a decline in the prosperity of small enterprises and employment, and the consumption demand contributed by the income side is still not optimistic [7] PPI Outlook - The supply - side dilemma of PPI has not changed. The "rush - to - export" effect of external demand is fading, and although the pull from domestic demand has slowed down, it may rebound in July, maintaining the current weak equilibrium. On the supply side, the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the decline in international oil prices in July may lead to a decline in PPI prices. In terms of external demand, there are still challenges, and exports are likely to decline in the second half of the year, with trade cooling down, which is difficult to significantly drive up total demand. In terms of domestic demand, after the next batch of subsidy funds is in place in July, on the one hand, it will directly improve corporate profits, and on the other hand, the uneven pattern of CPI demand recovery may improve, and the chain of CPI pulling PPI will restart, and the PPI of consumer goods may continue to rise. However, overall, the upward repair amplitude may be relatively limited [8]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, turning positive from negative; month-on-month, it decreased by 0.1%, with the decline narrowing[5] - Food CPI continued its downward trend, recording -0.3% year-on-year, primarily due to pork prices dropping by 8.5%, a decrease of 11.6 percentage points from the previous month[5] - Core CPI reached 0.7% year-on-year, the highest in 14 months, supported by consumption policies and a significant increase in e-commerce sales during the "618" shopping festival, which totaled 855.6 billion yuan, up 15.2% year-on-year[5] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In May, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, with production material prices down by 4.4%[10] - The decline in PPI was exacerbated by weak demand in the real estate sector and a high base effect from the previous year, with June's PPI drop expanding by 0.3 percentage points, nearing its lowest point of the year[10] - The PPI for June is expected to remain around -3%, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and recent declines in international oil prices[16] Group 3: Future Outlook - For July, CPI is projected to remain around 0.1%, with food and energy prices continuing to exert downward pressure, while core CPI provides some support[15] - PPI is also expected to stay low, around -3%, due to seasonal factors and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market, although regulatory measures may provide some price support in key industries[16] - The overall price levels are anticipated to continue fluctuating at low levels, with limited upward momentum due to weak demand and high base effects from the previous year[15]

Group 1: PPI Trends - In June, the PPI decline expanded to 3.6%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from May, marking the lowest level since July 2023[6] - The decline in PPI is primarily driven by the midstream sector, with midstream raw material processing PPI dropping to -5.9% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.3 percentage points to the overall decline[10] - The capacity utilization rate in the raw material processing industry was significantly below the historical 50th percentile in Q1 2025, indicating potential overcapacity in the sector[10] Group 2: CPI Recovery - In June, the CPI unexpectedly turned positive, rising by 0.1% year-on-year, with both food and non-food CPI increasing by 0.1 percentage points[16] - The core CPI also saw a year-on-year increase, reaching 0.7%, the highest in 14 months, driven mainly by a recovery in consumer goods prices[16] - The recovery in CPI is attributed to three factors: a seasonal rise in vegetable prices, reduced energy drag from international oil prices, and a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices[20] Group 3: Risks and Outlook - Geopolitical risks and unexpected increases in international oil prices are significant risk factors that could impact future economic conditions[23] - Despite the CPI's recovery, there remains a risk of a phase-down if short-term factors dissipate, indicating that further support for CPI is needed[21]

Inflation Data - June CPI year-on-year growth rate is 0.1%, an improvement from the previous value of -0.1%, exceeding market expectations of 0%[3] - June PPI year-on-year growth rate recorded at -3.6%, lower than market expectations of -3.2%[7] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a 14-month high[5] Price Movements - Industrial consumer goods prices saw a narrowing decline from -1.0% in May to -0.5% in June, contributing less to CPI decline by approximately 0.18 percentage points[3] - Gasoline prices shifted from a 3.8% decline to a 0.4% increase in June, influenced by international oil price movements[4] - Platinum jewelry prices surged by 12.6% in June, the largest monthly increase in nearly a decade[3] Economic Outlook - The market is expected to exhibit a dual bull structure in stocks and bonds in the second half of the year, supported by improving US-China trade relations and risk-averse funds[2] - Fixed income yields, particularly the 10-year government bond rate, are projected to decline to around 1.5% amid low domestic demand stimulus probability[2] Consumer Demand - Consumer demand is in a critical recovery phase, with incremental counter-cyclical policies expected to enhance demand and gradually improve CPI levels[7] - The demand for high-quality living is increasing, leading to price recoveries in related industries[9]

CPI Analysis - In June, the CPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and increased by 0.1% year-on-year, slightly above the previous values of -0.2% and -0.1% respectively[1] - The core CPI remained flat month-on-month and rose to 0.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Food prices fell by 0.4% month-on-month, while non-food prices remained stable[1] PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening from the previous 3.3%[2] - Energy prices showed a slight increase, with gasoline prices rising by 0.4% after a previous decline of 3.8%[1] - The manufacturing sector's capacity utilization rate was reported at 74.1%, indicating a downward trend in demand[2] Market Trends - The real estate market remains unstable, with property sales area and sales value declining by 2.9% and 3.8% respectively in the first five months[2] - The demand for durable goods and consumer products is weak, contributing to the low PPI and CPI figures[2] - The price of live pigs fell by 1.2% month-on-month, exceeding seasonal averages, indicating increased supply pressure[1] Future Outlook - The core CPI is expected to face limited recovery potential due to weak consumer confidence and internal competition pressures[2] - The global grain production forecast for 2025/2026 is expected to stabilize food prices, with a predicted increase in supply[2] - The oil price outlook remains uncertain, with OPEC+ considering production increases amid weak demand forecasts[2]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - In June, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) ended a four-month decline, rising by 0.1% year-on-year, while the month-on-month change decreased by 0.1%, narrowing the decline by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][4] - The increase in CPI was primarily driven by a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices, with food price declines slightly narrowing and service prices rising by 0.5% [1][3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month and reaching a 14-month high [1][4] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) - The national Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% year-on-year in June, with the decline widening by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [5][11] - The decline in PPI was influenced by seasonal price decreases in certain raw materials, with significant drops in prices for black metal smelting and non-metal mineral products [6][7] - The overall PPI for the first half of the year decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the real estate market and weak consumer demand [7][8] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The outlook for PPI improvement in the second half of the year remains limited, with an estimated annual decline of around 2.3%, which is better than the first half's decline of 2.8% [8][9] - Domestic demand continues to be weak, with low levels of real estate and infrastructure investment, which are insufficient to drive up related resource prices [8][9] - The overall manufacturing capacity utilization rate is low, leading to a phase of oversupply in certain industries [8]

证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2025 07 09 年 月 日 固定收益点评 金价和油价驱动 CPI 上涨 CPI 同比由跌转升、环比降幅收窄，核心 CPI 同比涨幅继续扩大，PPI 同 比降幅扩大、环比降幅不变。6 月 CPI 同比增长 0.1%，较上月增长 0.2 个 百分点，其中翘尾和新涨价分别影响 0%和 0.1%；环比下降 0.1%，降幅 收窄 0.1 个百分点。核心 CPI 同比增长 0.7%，增幅增加 0.1 个百分点， 环比延续持平。PPI 同比下降 3.6%，较上月降幅扩大 0.3 个百分点，其中 翘尾和新涨价的影响分别为-1.59%和-2.0%，环比降幅与上月同为 0.6%。 核心 CPI 同比涨幅扩大可能仍然主要来自黄金价格上涨支撑。6 月核心 CPI 同比涨幅继续扩大 0.1 个百分点，其中其他用品和服务分项增长明显， 6 月同比增长 8.1%，较上月增幅扩大 0.8 个百分点，显著高于 CPI 中其 他分项和 CPI 整体增速。其它用品和服务持续高速增长可能继续受到黄金 价格上涨支撑，6 月国内黄金期货价格同比增长 41.3%。按照居民消费结 构测算 20 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June, the national CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from four consecutive months of decline, primarily driven by a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices [1][3] - The core CPI rose by 0.7%, reaching a 14-month high, indicating the effectiveness of policies aimed at stabilizing growth and boosting consumption [1][4] - The CPI's month-on-month decline was 0.1%, with urban areas also experiencing a 0.1% decrease, while rural areas remained stable [4] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The national PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][5] - Industrial producer purchase prices fell by 4.3% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month, with a 2.8% decline in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year [4][5] - The PPI's decline is expected to persist due to insufficient industrial demand, but improvements in supply-demand relationships and macroeconomic policies may stabilize prices [5][7] Group 3: Policy Implications - The government aims for a GDP growth of around 5% and a CPI increase of about 2% this year, indicating potential for further fiscal and monetary policy support to stimulate demand and improve price performance [4][7] - Policies targeting the reduction of "involutionary competition" are anticipated to enhance supply-demand structures, supporting price increases in various sectors [7] - Supply-side structural reforms are expected to alleviate overcapacity issues, potentially boosting industrial prices and improving corporate profitability [7]

CPI Analysis - In June, the CPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with the core CPI rising to 0.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Food prices fell by 0.4% month-on-month, while non-food prices remained stable, reflecting a seasonal average of -0.2%[1] - Energy prices saw a slight increase due to rising international oil prices, with gasoline prices reversing from a 3.8% decline to a 0.4% increase[1][6] PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, marking the lowest year-on-year decline this year[2][17] - The decline in PPI was influenced by seasonal decreases in coal and energy demand, alongside price drops in black metal and non-metal mineral products[3][18] - Despite some support from rising prices in the non-ferrous metal sector, overall PPI improvement is expected to be limited due to weak demand and internal competition pressures[2][24] Market Trends - The real estate market remains unstable, with property sales area and sales value down by 2.9% and 3.8% year-on-year respectively, impacting infrastructure investment[2][25] - Consumer confidence and investment willingness are low, contributing to a weak economic recovery outlook[2][25] - The core CPI's recovery space is limited, with internal competition suppressing price increases and overall consumer demand remaining weak[3][24]