Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the sugar sector in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock industry is "Weak with Oscillation" [1] - The investment rating for the jujube sector in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock industry is "Weak with Oscillation" [4] - The investment rating for the rubber - related sector in the energy and chemical industry is "Oscillation", with synthetic rubber being "Oscillating with a Slight Uptrend" [5] Group 2: Core Views - For sugar, the international sugar market faces supply pressure due to increased sugar production in India and the expected high - yield in the new Brazilian season. Although Thailand's new - season sugar production is lower than expected, the overall fundamentals of the domestic and international sugar markets are bearish. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar futures will run weakly after the opening [1] - For jujubes, the sample inventory of jujubes has entered the seasonal destocking period, but the total inventory is still at a historical high. After the supply negatives are gradually digested, the market focuses on demand. The futures price has support at the previous low, but there is insufficient positive news in the medium - to - long - term, and it is expected to oscillate in a low - level range [4] - For rubber, natural rubber has limited fundamental driving factors in the short term. The price may be in a consolidation state after the holiday, and attention should be paid to the impact of synthetic rubber trends. Synthetic rubber is supported by cost, and the sudden situation in Venezuela may boost the BR futures price [5] Group 3: Summary by Variety Sugar - **Market Review**: Before the holiday, the closing price of SR601 contract was 5,251 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.13%, and the closing price of SR605 contract was 5,266 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.17% [1] - **Important Information**: The spot price of Guangxi sugar decreased by 16 yuan/ton to 5,293 yuan/ton. As of December 31, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season reached 11.897 million tons, a nearly 25% increase year - on - year. The number of sugar mills in operation increased by 12 to 504. As of January 1, 2026, 195 sugar mills in Maharashtra, India, had produced 492,000 tons of sugar. As of December 29, 2025, Thailand's sugar production decreased by 18.83% year - on - year. Before the holiday, the number of sugar warrants in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange remained unchanged at 5,182 [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the SR605 contract [1] Jujube - **Market Review**: Before the holiday, the closing price of CJ601 contract was 8,965 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.61%, and the closing price of CJ605 contract was 9,230 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.38% [4] - **Important Information**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 210 tons week - on - week to 15,898 tons. The wholesale price of Hebei's top - grade jujubes remained unchanged at 9.52 yuan/kg. The number of arrival vehicles at Guangdong Ruyifang Market increased by 1 to 8. The number of jujube warrants increased by 778 to 2,120 [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the CJ605 contract [4] Rubber - Related - **Market Review**: As of December 31, the closing price of RU2605 contract was 15,605 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.41%, the closing price of NR2603 contract was 12,655 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.55%, and the closing price of BR2602 contract was 11,520 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.39% [5] - **Important Information**: The price of raw materials in Thailand was not available during the holiday. Some enterprises had short - term maintenance plans during the "New Year's Day" holiday. As of December 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.87% to 524,800 tons, and the social inventory of natural rubber in China increased by 1.7% to 1.201 million tons. The price of butadiene in Shandong and East China was stable, and the market prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber were also stable [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Overall, adopt a wait - and - see approach or hold a small number of long - call options for BR [5]

观点与策略 | 棕榈油：基本面驱动不强，关注原油波动外溢 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：单边区间为主，关注月差机会 | 2 | | 豆粕：假期美豆收跌，连粕或低位震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：节前政策情绪偏强，节后或震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 7 | | 棉花：维持震荡偏强走势20260105 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：弱势显现 | 11 | | 花生：震荡偏弱 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2026年01月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 棕榈油主力 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,584 | -0.85% | | | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,862 | -0.20% | | | | | | 元/吨 | 9,087 | 0.01% ...

2026 年 1 月 5 日 本周热点前瞻 2026-01-05 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作出投资决定并自主 承担投资风险，不应凭借本报告进行具体操作。 【本周重点关注】 1 月 7 日 16:00，中国人民银行将公布 2025 年 12 月外汇储备和黄金储备。 1 月 8 日 21:30，美国劳工部将公布截至 1 月 3 日当周初请失业金人数。 1 月 9 日 09:30，国家统计局将公布中国 2025 年 12 月 CPI 和 PPI。 1 月 9 日 21:30，美国劳动统计局将公布 2025 年 12 月非农就业报告。 美国总统特朗普或在 2026 年 1 月第一周指定美联储新主席人选。 周六（1 月 3 日），美国总统特朗普称，美方已成功对委内瑞拉实施打击 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday (January 5 - 9, 2026), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures contracts are expected to fluctuate. For soybean meal, attention should be paid to US soybean export demand (Chinese purchases, US soybean weekly export sales reports) and South American weather. For soybeans, although the pre - holiday policy sentiment was strong, the external soybean market was weak. It is expected that the domestic market will mainly fluctuate after the pre - holiday rise, and subsequent state reserve situations should be monitored [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Price Movements of US and Domestic Soybean Futures - From December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, US soybean futures prices declined due to limited Chinese purchases, weak US soybean export data, and South American weather pressure. In the week of January 2, the main March 2026 contract of US soybeans fell 2.4%, and the main March 2026 contract of US soybean meal fell 3.74%. - Before the holiday (December 29 - 31, 2025), domestic soybean meal futures prices first rose and then fell, while soybean futures prices rose strongly. In the week of December 31, the main May 2026 contract of soybean meal (m2605) fell 1.47%, and the main May 2026 contract of soybeans (a2605) rose 2.74% [1]. 3.2 International Soybean Market Fundamentals - Chinese continued to purchase US soybeans in limited quantities, which had a neutral impact. From December 29 to January 2, 2026, the cumulative sales volume of US soybeans to China and unknown destinations was about 367,000 tons, and to Egypt was 100,000 tons (for delivery in the 2025/26 season). As of the week of December 18, 2025, China's purchases of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season were about 603,000 tons. - As of the week of December 18, 2025, the export shipments of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season were about 85,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 46%; the cumulative export shipments were about 1.401 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 47%. The current - year (2025/26) weekly net sales of US soybeans were about 990,000 tons (about 2.4 million tons the previous week), and the next - market - year (2026/27) weekly net sales were - 480,000 tons (about 2.85 million tons the previous week), with a total of about 985,000 tons (about 2.43 million tons the previous week). The current - crop - year (2025/26) weekly net sales of US soybeans to China were about 620,000 tons (1.38 million tons the previous week), and the cumulative sales were about 603,000 tons. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased week - on - week, which had a negative impact. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost decreased week - on - week, and the average crushing margin increased week - on - week. - The soybean planting in Argentina is gradually coming to an end. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the planting progress of soybeans in Argentina for the 2025/26 season was about 82%, compared with about 93% in the same period last year. - According to the weather forecast on January 2, 2026, in the next two weeks (January 3 - 17, 2026), the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be slightly less, and the temperature will be "low first and then high"; the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Argentina will be less (the precipitation will improve starting from January 8), and the temperature will be low. Although the precipitation in the Argentine产区 was less from late December 2025 to early January 2026, due to the forecast of improved precipitation in mid - and early - January, the market did not trade on the "short - term lack of precipitation" and mainly conducted bearish trading based on the view that "weather problems are not significant" [1]. 3.3 Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - Before the holiday (December 29 - 31, 2025), the trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of December 31, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 200,000 tons, compared with about 160,000 tons the previous week. - The pick - up volume of soybean meal decreased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of December 31, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 182,000 tons, compared with about 183,000 tons the previous week. - The basis of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of December 31, the weekly average basis of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was about 356 yuan/ton, compared with about 353 yuan/ton the previous week and about 252 yuan/ton in the same period last year. - The inventory of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week and year - on - year. As of the week of December 26, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 1.03 million tons, a week - on - week increase of about 3% and a year - on - year increase of about 65% [2]. 3.4 Domestic Soybean Spot Market - Before the holiday (December 29 - 31, 2025), soybean prices were stable with a slight upward trend. In some parts of Northeast China, the purchase price of clean soybean grains (the mainstream purchase price of clean grains passing through a 4.5 - mesh sieve) was in the range of 4,160 - 4,260 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 - 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; in some parts of Inner China, the purchase price of clean soybean grains was in the range of 4,860 - 5,100 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week; in the sales areas, the sales price of Northeast edible soybeans (the mainstream retail price of medium - grade, packaged, and tower - selected Northeast soybeans) was in the range of 4,580 - 4,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 - 80 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. - The state - reserve soybean auction had good results, but the premium decreased. On December 29, 2025, China Grain Reserves Corporation planned to auction about 190,000 tons of domestic soybeans produced in 2022 through competitive bidding, and the actual transaction volume was about 155,900 tons, with a reserve price of 3,950 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 4,014 yuan/ton, and a premium of 0 - 180 yuan/ton. This was the third state - reserve soybean auction, and the participants were still manufacturers and various trading entities, with a lower premium compared with the previous two auctions. - The trading of soybeans in the sales areas was slow, and attention should be paid to the subsequent restocking demand. Although the overall trading in the sales - area market was slow, as the Spring Festival approached, all sectors of the market had restocking demand, and prices might rise [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - As of December 31, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate futures closed at 121,580 yuan/ton, with the futures price rising by 26.09% in November, and the futures premium over spot battery-grade lithium carbonate was 2,140 yuan/ton [1]. - On December 31, the battery - grade lithium carbonate spot was quoted at 118,500 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade was 115,500 yuan/ton, with spot prices rising following futures in December [1]. - As of December 31, the lithium spodumene price index was 1430 US dollars/ton; the average market price of African SC5% was 1300 US dollars/ton; the average CIF market price of Australian 6% lithium spodumene was 1640 US dollars/ton. In November, the lithium ore import market showed a simultaneous increase in volume and price [1]. - In December, the domestic lithium carbonate production was expected to increase slightly month - on - month. New production capacity in Hunan was released, and a factory in Jiangxi restarted production after ignition. High prices stimulated the production enthusiasm of lithium salt plants, and new production capacity continued to ramp up [2]. - Terminal demand remained high, but the production of material factories decreased slightly. Some downstream and battery factories announced maintenance plans at the end of the month, which would affect demand in January 2026 [2]. - The domestic lithium ore supply tightened, and the demand for lithium ore increased. The overall profit of the lithium carbonate industry improved, and the profit margins of self - owned mine and salt lake enterprises expanded, while the processing fees of contract - processing enterprises increased slightly [3]. - Inventories continued to decline during the month, and the de - stocking speed slowed down at the end of the month, so the inventory inflection point needed to be monitored [3]. - In December, the market price of lithium hydroxide rose significantly following lithium carbonate. The cost of lithium hydroxide production was rigidly supported, and the market bottom was solid. The supply in the spot market was tight, and downstream acceptance of high - priced goods was limited [4]. - The current lithium carbonate futures price is mainly influenced by capital sentiment, with over - speculation. There is a phenomenon of divergence between futures and spot, and short - term callback risks need to be vigilant [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - Lithium carbonate futures and spot prices rose in December. The futures price showed an overall upward trend with a slight correction at the end of the month, and the spot price followed the futures [1]. - The price of lithium hydroxide also rose significantly in December, following the trend of lithium carbonate [4]. - The base difference between the mainstream brand of lithium carbonate and the futures main - contract closing price changed greatly in December, with the futures rising more and the spot rising slower. The base difference was expected to fluctuate widely between 2,000 yuan/ton and - 4,000 yuan/ton [10]. Supply - side Data - In December, domestic lithium carbonate production was expected to increase slightly month - on - month. New production capacity in Hunan was released, and a factory in Jiangxi restarted production. However, the production of a few enterprises was lower than expected due to maintenance [2]. - In November 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate was 22,055.187 tons. The main import countries were Chile and Argentina. The export volume of Chile to China decreased slightly month - on - month, while the import volumes from Argentina and Indonesia remained high [2]. Consumption Data - Terminal demand remained high, but the production of material factories decreased slightly. Some downstream and battery factories announced maintenance plans at the end of the month, which would affect demand in January 2026 [2]. - The increase in lithium carbonate prices made it difficult to find suitable - price spot orders. Downstream procurement was mainly based on long - term contracts and customer - supplied materials, and inventory was consumed. The signing of new long - term contracts was difficult [2]. Import and Export Data - In November 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate was 22,055.187 tons, mainly from Chile and Argentina [2]. Inventory Data - Inventories continued to decline during the month. According to SMM's monthly inventory statistics, the total inventory was 64,560 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 19,674 tons. The inventory of lithium salt plants was 22,530 tons, and the downstream inventory was 42,030 tons. The de - stocking speed slowed down at the end of the month [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views Nickel - In December 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a strong V - shaped reversal pattern, rising 13.5% for the month and hitting a new high since 2025. Indonesia's plan to cut the nickel ore quota in 2026 by 34% and the possible 2% tax on associated products like cobalt are the core driving forces for the price rebound [2]. - The supply of primary nickel increased steadily in December due to price recovery and capacity ramping up. The consumption in the stainless - steel and new - energy sectors was in a trough, while the alloy sector was promising. Nickel inventory was still accumulating, and high inventory would suppress the future rebound space of nickel prices [3]. - Currently, the fundamentals show high inventory and oversupply, but with positive policies from Indonesia and nickel's long - term bottom - side oscillation, it is expected to remain strong [4]. Stainless Steel - In December 2025, the main contract of stainless steel showed a pattern of bottom lifting, passive following, and high - level oscillation, rising 6.15% for the month and approaching the annual high, driven by the strength of Shanghai nickel [4]. - The supply of stainless steel decreased in December 2025, while the demand increased slightly due to price - driven market enthusiasm and inventory - building needs. However, the overall weak demand situation in the traditional off - season has not fundamentally changed. The social inventory of stainless steel showed four consecutive drops [5]. - With some macro - positive factors realized and four - week inventory depletion, but the cold downstream demand in the off - season, the stainless - steel price is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, following the trend of Shanghai nickel [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Nickel Sector 1.1 Market Review - In December 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel started at 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, dropped to 111,700 yuan/ton in the middle of the month, and rebounded to break through 130,000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 13.5% [11]. 1.2 Primary Nickel Supply Situation - In December 2025, the domestic refined nickel production was 31,400 tons, with a year - on - year change of - 0.37% and a month - on - month change of +21.71%. The expected domestic refined nickel production in 2025 was 390,000 tons, a 15% year - on - year increase. Indonesia's expected annual refined nickel production was 80,000 tons, with new projects like Dingxing and Yongheng releasing capacity and Qingmeibang starting production in the fourth quarter [15]. 1.3 Refined Nickel Consumption Situation - In November 2025, China's apparent consumption of refined nickel was 25,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.66%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption was 348,400 tons, a 37.15% year - on - year increase. The demand in the stainless - steel and new - energy sectors was in a trough, while the alloy sector had good development, and the overall nickel demand remained stable [34][35]. 1.4 Inventory Situation - As of December 31, the SHFE nickel inventory was 45,544 tons, a 11.7% increase from the previous month, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,300 tons, a 0.4% increase, indicating a more relaxed supply pattern and suppressing the future rebound space of nickel prices [37]. Stainless Steel Sector 2.1 Market Review - In December 2025, the main contract of stainless steel started at 12,375 yuan/ton, dropped to 12,290 yuan/ton in the middle of the month, and rebounded to break through 13,000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 6.15% [41]. 2.2 Stainless Steel Supply Situation - In December 2025, the stainless - steel production decreased. The estimated crude - steel output of 43 domestic stainless - steel plants was 3.2671 million tons, a 6.47% month - on - month decrease and a 5.09% year - on - year decrease. The production schedule for January 2026 was 3.327 million tons, a 1.83% month - on - month increase and a 16.27% year - on - year increase [43]. 2.3 Stainless Steel Consumption Situation - In December 2025, the overall stainless - steel consumption increased slightly due to price - driven market enthusiasm and inventory - building needs. The demand in the downstream pipe - making and profile sectors was affected by the traditional off - season, and the overall weak demand situation had not fundamentally changed [51]. 2.4 Inventory Situation - As of December 25, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel in 89 warehouses in the mainstream market was 1,005,136 tons, a 3.55% week - on - week decrease. The inventory showed four consecutive drops due to factors such as the increase in steel - mill prices and active merchant sales at the end of the month [59]. 2.5 Cost - In December, the prices of high - carbon ferrochrome and high - nickel pig iron continued to rise, and the stainless - steel cost continued to increase. The costs of different processes for smelting 304 cold - rolled stainless steel changed to varying degrees [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, the cost - side support for PX and PTA weakened slightly, but their prices rose significantly due to the expectation of tight supply and demand for PX in the first half of next year, with improved profitability. However, the spot basis did not increase significantly. PF and PR prices followed the raw materials up, but the increase was less than that of the raw materials. The processing profit of PF was compressed due to weak textile and clothing demand, and the downstream of PR was weak, with only rigid - demand replenishment [1]. - In the short term, PX has a risk of retracement, but the medium - term expectation is still good. The report suggests short - term retracement for PX/PTA/PF/PR and mid - term buying on dips for hedging. For PTA and PX, the 2605 - 2609 month - spread can be bought after retracement [1][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price and Spread - In December, Brent crude oil price broke through the lower edge of the $60 - 65/barrel range, reaching around $58/barrel. The medium - term fundamental pressure on crude oil still suppressed oil prices. PX and PTA prices rose significantly, with PXN reaching around $380/ton and PTA processing fee recovering to below 300 yuan/ton, but the spot basis did not increase significantly. PF and PR prices followed raw materials up, but the increase was less than that of raw materials. PF processing profit was compressed, and PR basis weakened with a narrowing of the spot processing fee [1][13]. - Regarding the basis strategy, the PTA basis is expected to fluctuate in January, the PX basis is expected to oscillate, the PF basis is expected to adjust passively with raw materials, and the PR basis is expected to move within a range [12]. 3.2 PX and PTA Supply - PX supply: In 2026, the new PX production capacity that can actually be realized is mainly 2 million tons from Liaoning Huajin Aramco, and the total new production capacity including the expansion of Fujia Dahua is expected to be 2.6 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 6%. In December, foreign PX plants operated at a high load, and production continued to increase. There are no maintenance plans in January, and PX production is expected to remain high. Overseas PX operation rate has an upward expectation [2][43]. - PTA supply: 8.7 million tons of new PTA production capacity have been put into operation this year, and there are no new production capacity plans in 2026. In December, due to low profitability, the maintenance volume of PTA plants remained high. In January, some plants will restart, and PTA load and production are expected to increase slightly compared with December [3][43]. 3.3 Inventory - PX inventory: The PX balance sheet is expected to accumulate about 80,000 tons in December. The current PX social inventory is at a seasonally low level, and the inventories in Japan and South Korea are moderately low. In January, the PTA load increase is limited, and the Chinese PX balance sheet is expected to remain in a loose balance, with an expected inventory accumulation of about 90,000 tons [2][55][58]. - PTA inventory: The Chinese PTA social inventory decreased in December, with an estimated de - stocking of about 200,000 tons. In January, although the maintenance loss is still large, the polyester load on the demand side is expected to decline, and PTA is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory (about 70,000 tons). The near - end contradiction is not significant, but the inventory accumulation will increase in February [3][58]. 3.4 Demand - In December, domestic trade orders weakened, the weaving load declined rapidly, and the grey fabric inventory began to accumulate. Foreign trade orders started to place seasonal orders from late December, but the overall level was lower than that of the same period last year. In December, due to the rapid rise of raw materials, weaving enterprises made concentrated replenishment, and filament inventory decreased to a low level. Polyester plants operated at a relatively high load in December, but moderately reduced production at the end of the month [67]. - In January, the downstream shows a weakening trend. The recent rise in raw material prices has not promoted the sales of downstream drawn yarns and grey fabrics. The price is difficult to pass on, and the downstream operation rate may decline rapidly. If downstream enterprises stop production in advance, polyester enterprises may be forced to reduce production in advance or increase the maintenance intensity during the Spring Festival [67]. 3.5 PF Supply, Demand and Inventory - In December, the inventory of staple fiber plants remained stable at a low level, and they maintained a high - load operation. With the increase in raw materials, the profit of downstream polyester yarns decreased significantly. In January, the load may decline rapidly due to weak downstream demand, and the increase is less than that of futures. As demand weakens in January, the load is expected to decline from a high level, and the risk of high - priced raw materials increases. The market mainly purchases on demand with a wait - and - see attitude [4][91][93]. 3.6 PR Supply, Demand and Inventory - Supply: In mid - to late December, two 300,000 - ton plants of Zhuhai Huaren restarted one after another, and the new plant of Fuhai was put into production in January, resulting in a slight increase in domestic supply. - Demand: In the first half of December, the terminal made concentrated replenishment at low prices, and the factory inventory decreased. In the second half, after the rapid rise of raw materials, the terminal was cautious about chasing the rise, and the procurement was relatively rigid. In January, there are both restart and maintenance plans, the demand is weak, the supply - demand is expected to remain weak, and the processing fee space is limited [5][111].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Apple investment strategy is neutral to bullish [5] - Red dates investment strategy is neutral [10] Group 2: Core Views - In December, apples had low inventory, quality differentiation, and stable prices, with slow de - stocking. The new - season apples had reduced production and quality, and the sales of good and bad apples were polarized in the market. In January 26, due to low high - quality fruit rate and inventory, high - quality fruit prices suppressed sales in the sales area, and low - price substitute fruits squeezed the sales space [3][4][5] - As of the end of December, the acquisition of red dates in Xinjiang was nearing completion, and the market focus shifted to the circulation in the sales area and the release of Spring Festival stocking demand. The sales area had sufficient supply but weak trading atmosphere, and the inventory pressure was high. The price trend in the medium - and long - term depends on the consumption during the Spring Festival [7][9] Group 3: Market News and Important Data (Apple) - As of the end of December, the closing price of Apple 2605 contract was 9120 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 459 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.79%. The spot price of 80 first - and second - grade apples in Shandong Qixia was 8200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 700 yuan/ton; the spot price of semi - commercial apples above 70 in Shaanxi Luochuan was 8400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton [1] - As of the 52nd week of 2025, the average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.82 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.25 yuan/kg and a month - on - month increase of 0.51 yuan/kg. As of December 25, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was about 7.021 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 272.5 million tons [2] - As of the 52nd week of 2025, the wholesale prices of Kyoho grapes, bananas, watermelons, pineapples, and Fuji apples increased by 0.83 yuan/kg, 0.23 yuan/kg, 0.15 yuan/kg, 0.28 yuan/kg, and 0.07 yuan/kg respectively week - on - week, while the wholesale price of Ya pears decreased by 0.04 yuan/kg week - on - week [2] Group 4: Market News and Important Data (Red Dates) - As of the end of December, the closing price of Red Dates 2605 contract was 8965 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 210 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.29%. The current mainstream prices of general red dates in Aksu, Alar, Kashgar, and Maigaiti were 5 - 5.3 yuan/kg, 5.2 - 5.8 yuan/kg, 6.2 - 6.4 yuan/kg, and 6 - 6.3 yuan/kg respectively. The spot price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8300 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 400 yuan/ton [7] - In December, the acquisition of grey dates in Xinjiang was nearing completion, and the ownership of the acquired goods was being transferred. The new - season red dates were generally smaller but of better quality than last year. The sales area had low trading activity, and the market focus shifted to the circulation in the sales area and the Spring Festival stocking demand [7] - The arrival volume of red dates in the sales area in December was small, but the supply increased. The average prices of special - grade and first - grade red dates in Hebei Cuierzhuang decreased by 0.28 yuan/kg and 0.47 yuan/kg respectively month - on - month. The prices of all grades in Henan and Guangzhou markets also decreased by 0.3 - 0.5 yuan/kg. The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,898 tons, an increase of 5050 tons compared with last month [8] Group 5: Market Analysis (Apple) - In December, the sales of out - of - cold - storage late Fuji apples were nearly over, and the trading was mainly based on cold - storage goods. The commodity rate was lower than in previous years, and the prices of good and bad apples were polarized. The cold - storage de - stocking was slow, and the de - stocking speed was lower than the same period in previous years. The de - stocking rhythm and the supply of substitute fruits in the next month will affect the market [4] Group 6: Market Analysis (Red Dates) - Currently, the acquisition of red dates is coming to an end, and the goods are being transferred from farmers and local cooperatives to processing enterprises and traders. In December, the sales area had sufficient supply but weak trading atmosphere, and the inventory pressure was high. The medium - and long - term price trend depends on the consumption during the Spring Festival [9] Group 7: Basis Analysis - The spot basis of 80 first - and second - grade apples in Shandong Qixia was AP05 - 920, a month - on - month increase of 1159; the spot basis of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was CJ05 - 665, a month - on - month decrease of 190. The basis of apples in Shaanxi Luochuan and red dates in Henan also had corresponding changes [13] - The basis is flattening, and it is expected that other regions will maintain the current basis structure. During the festival sales period, attention should be paid to the sales speed of apples and red dates [13]

化工月报 | 2026-01-04 原料坚挺，橡胶成本支撑仍存 市场要闻与重要数据 原料与价差：泰国胶水54.20泰铢/公斤（+0.00），泰国杯胶51.10泰铢/公斤（+0.00），云南胶水14200元/吨（-100）， 海南胶水13900元/吨（+0），RU基差-355元/吨（+65），NR基差458元/吨（+35），BR基差-120元/吨（+45）。 现货方面：云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15250元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14700元/吨，较前一 日变动+0元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1870美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1805 美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11500元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 供应方面：天然橡胶青岛港口入库率7.58%（+1.94%），其中一般贸易入库率8.42%（+2.89%），保税库入库率3.17% （-3.05%）；高顺顺丁开工率76.92%（+0.66%）。中国天然橡胶月度产量137200吨（+23700），中国顺丁橡胶月度产 量143620吨（+13500）。 生产利润方面： ...

Report Summary Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - From December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, US soybean futures prices declined due to limited Chinese purchases, weak US soybean export data, and South American weather pressure. During the week of January 2, the main March contract of US soybeans dropped 2.4%, and the main March contract of US soybean meal fell 3.74% [1]. - Before the holiday (December 29 - 31, 2025), domestic soybean meal futures prices rose first and then fell, while soybean futures prices rose strongly. After the holiday (January 5 - 9, 2026), it is expected that both Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures prices will fluctuate [1][5]. Detailed Summaries by Content International Soybean Market Fundamentals (December 29, 2025 - January 2, 2026) - Chinese purchases of US soybeans were limited, with a cumulative sales volume of approximately 36.7 tons to China and unknown destinations and 10 tons to Egypt in the week of December 29 - January 2. As of the week of December 18, 2025, China's purchases of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season totaled about 603 tons [1]. - As of the week of December 18, 2025, the export shipments of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season were about 85 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 46%; the cumulative export shipments were about 1401 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 47% [1]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased week - on - week. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost decreased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [1]. - As of the week of December 31, 2025, the planting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2025/26 season was about 82%, behind the 93% of the same period last year, gradually approaching the end [1]. - According to the January 2 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (January 3 - 17, 2026), precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be slightly less, and temperatures will be "low first and then high"; in Argentina, precipitation will be less (improving from January 8), and temperatures will be low [1]. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market (December 29 - 31, 2025) - Trading volume increased week - on - week. The average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 20 tons, compared with about 16 tons in the previous week [3]. - Pick - up volume decreased slightly week - on - week. The average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 18.2 tons, compared with about 18.3 tons in the previous week [3]. - The basis increased slightly week - on - week. The weekly average basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about 356 yuan/ton, compared with about 353 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 252 yuan/ton in the same period last year [3]. - Inventory increased slightly week - on - week and year - on - year. As of the week of December 26, 2025, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 103 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 3% and a year - on - year increase of about 65% [3]. Domestic Soybean Spot Market (December 29 - 31, 2025) - Soybean prices were stable and slightly stronger. The purchase price of clean soybeans in some northeastern regions increased by 40 - 60 yuan/ton week - on - week, remained flat in some inland areas, and the sales price in the sales areas of northeastern edible soybeans increased by 40 - 80 yuan/ton week - on - week [4]. - The state - reserve soybean auction had good results, but the premium decreased. On December 29, the planned auction volume was about 19 tons, the actual transaction volume was about 15.59 tons, the reserve price was 3950 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 4014 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 180 yuan/ton [4]. - The trading of soybeans in the sales areas was slow, but attention should be paid to the subsequent restocking demand. As the Spring Festival approached, there was restocking demand in all market segments, and prices may rise [4]. Post - holiday Forecast (January 5 - 9, 2026) - For soybean meal, pay attention to US soybean export demand (Chinese purchases, weekly US soybean export sales reports) and South American weather [5]. - For soybeans, due to the strong pre - holiday policy sentiment but the weak external soybean market, it is expected that the domestic futures market will fluctuate after the pre - holiday rise. Pay attention to the subsequent state - reserve release [5].