瑞达期货（002961）：燃料油盘面反弹空间受限制 预计美联储将于下周降息，提振经济和需求预期，叠加地缘局势不稳定，国际油价上涨，对化工品成本 构成支撑。供应方面，主营炼厂因检修开工率承压，地炼则因元旦备货高峰提前提负，供应格局呈现区 域分化。库存方面，山东地区油浆及渣油库存下降，蜡油库存则继续上涨。需求端除河北地炼采购积极 外，其他地区出货承压，全国成交量和船燃采购量均有所减少。总体而言，短期基本面略有好转，而低 硫因科威特短期供应相对紧张有所支撑跌幅较小。综上，高低硫燃料油自身供需面有压力，盘面反弹空 间受限制；技术上，燃料油延续震荡筑底态势，其中fu主力合约夜盘涨9收于2470元/吨，LU主力合约夜 盘涨36收于3048元/吨，整体跟随原油震荡运行为主。观望。 12月8日盘中，燃料油期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至2515.00元。截止发稿，燃料油主力 合约报2511.00元，涨幅2.03%。 瑞达期货 燃料油盘面反弹空间受限制 燃料油期货主力涨超2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 国投安信期货：燃料油整体呈现震荡走势 机构 核心观点 近期燃料油市场整体呈现弱势震荡格局，高低硫裂解价差 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of pure benzene is expected to fluctuate. In the short - term, geopolitical risks remain, and the supply and demand of pure benzene both decline this week. In the long - term, the new production capacity of pure benzene is large, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The price of styrene lacks upward drive as the downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, although the supply is expected to increase at the end of the month [5]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, sell out - of - the - money call options for options, and expect a fluctuating trend for single - side trading [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Pure Benzene Analysis** - **Supply**: Short - term geopolitical risks exist. This week, the supply and demand of pure benzene both decline, and the inventory at the main ports in East China increases significantly. Some domestic refineries have maintenance plans, but the overall supply is relatively stable in the later period. Imports will remain at a relatively high level in the next two months [5][9][11]. - **Demand**: The profits of downstream styrene and caprolactam have improved. The restart of some styrene plants is expected to boost the demand for pure benzene, and the production of caprolactam is relatively stable. However, the overall downstream start - up is weak, and the inventory of the main downstream products is high [5][15][24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: expect a fluctuating trend; Arbitrage: wait - and - see; Options: sell out - of - the - money call options [5]. - **Styrene Analysis** - **Supply**: This week, the arrival of styrene is concentrated, and the port inventory is stable. With the improvement of production efficiency, the start - up rate is expected to increase. New production capacity will be released this month, and some plants will restart at the end of the month, so the supply is expected to pick up [5][34]. - **Demand**: The processing margin of downstream products is compressed, and the demand enters the seasonal off - season, lacking upward drive [5][34]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market circulation of styrene is tight, and the basis is strong. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options for options [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Change in the Price of Pure Benzene**: In mid - November, the improvement of US gasoline blending demand led to a decrease in US pure benzene supply and an increase in prices. Recently, with the decline of the US gasoline cracking spread and the recovery of gasoline inventory, the profit of toluene disproportionation has been repaired, and the enthusiasm for gasoline blending has declined [7][8]. - **Supply and Demand of Pure Benzene**: The import of pure benzene is concentrated, and the inventory at ports has increased. Some domestic refineries have reduced production due to the weakening of disproportionation profit, but the overall supply is relatively stable. The downstream start - up is weak, but the profit has been repaired to some extent [5][9][11][15][17]. - **Supply and Demand of Styrene**: The port inventory of styrene is high, but it is expected to decrease in December. The supply is expected to increase at the end of the month, while the downstream demand is weak, and the profit of 3S products is compressed [5][32][34][36]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **3.1 Pure Benzene** - **Industrial Chain Price**: Tracks the spot prices of pure benzene in East China, styrene in East China, EPS, PS, and ABS [45]. - **External Price**: Tracks the CFR price of pure benzene in China, FOB prices in South Korea, the US, and Rotterdam [48]. - **Price Difference between Varieties**: Tracks the price differences between pure benzene and naphtha (external market), styrene and pure benzene (external and internal markets) [50]. - **Regional Price Difference**: Tracks the price differences between Shandong and East China, China and South Korea, and the US and South Korea for pure benzene [55]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: Tracks the production profit of pure benzene, the production profit of styrene by ethylbenzene dehydrogenation, and the profits of downstream products such as phenol, adipic acid, caprolactam, and aniline [59][60]. - **Start - up Rate**: Tracks the start - up rates of pure benzene, hydro - benzene, and downstream products such as styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid [66][71]. - **Port Inventory**: Tracks the port inventory of pure benzene [67]. - **3.2 Styrene** - **Internal and External Prices**: Tracks the spot price of styrene in East China, CFR price in China, and FOB prices in South Korea, the US, and Rotterdam [75]. - **External Price Difference**: Tracks the price differences between the internal and external markets of styrene, and between China and the US, South Korea, and Rotterdam [78]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: Tracks the production profit of styrene by ethylbenzene dehydrogenation, POSM profit, and the profits of downstream products such as EPS, PS, and ABS [80]. - **Industrial Chain Start - up**: Tracks the start - up rates of styrene, PS, ABS, EPS, and phenol [82][83]. - **Port Inventory**: Tracks the port inventories of styrene in East China, South China, and overall [86].

财达期货｜焦煤焦炭周报 2025-12-08 焦炭首轮提降落地，双焦期价继续探底 【期现行情】 上周焦煤 2605 合约周五收于 1140，周跌幅 1.04%，现货市场主流地区报价偏 弱运行。 研究员 上周焦炭 2601 合约周五收于 1585，周涨幅 0.67%，现货市场主流地区提降 50-55 元/吨落地。 姓名：申伟光 从 业 资 格 号 ： 【基本面分析】 F03088716 焦煤： 投 资 咨 询 号 ： 供应端：上周全国 523 家炼焦煤矿山核定产能利用率 85.6%，环比下降 0.4%； 精煤日均产量 75.4 万吨，环比减少 1 万吨。全国 314 家独立洗煤厂产能利用率 36.5%，环比上升 0.2%；精煤日均产量 27.1 万吨，环比增加 0.5 万吨。上周，主产 地煤矿复产节奏缓慢，部分地区煤矿因年度生产任务即将完成开始放缓生产节奏进 行控产，炼焦煤矿山核定产能利用率已连续两周下降，短期内炼焦煤原料端供应依 然受限。库存方面，焦煤价格持续偏弱，焦炭提降落地，焦企补库积极性下降，煤 矿出货压力增加，炼焦煤矿山原煤及精煤库存大幅累库，独立洗煤厂精煤库存累库 幅度增加。 需求端：焦炭首轮提降落 ...

20251208申万期货品种策略日报-原油甲醇 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 董超 （从业编号F3030150 投资咨询号Z0012596） dongchao@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SC近月 | SC次月 | WTI近月 | WTI次月 | Brent近月 | Brent次月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 453.7 | 454.8 | 60.14 | 59.83 | 63.37 | 62.96 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 452.6 | 453.9 | 59.70 | 59.36 | 62.75 | 62.35 | | | 涨跌 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.44 | 0.47 | 0.62 | 0.61 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.24% | 0.20% | 0.74% | 0.79% | 0.99% | 0.98% | | | 成交量 | 66,825 | 19,066 | 240,924 | 141,512 | 218,464 | ...

2025 年 12 月 08 日 研 究 豆粕：美豆收跌，连粕或跟随偏弱震荡 豆一：盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | 4075 -45（-1.09%） | 4081 | -7（-0.17%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2821 -10（-0.35%） | 2819 | -9 （-0.32%） | | | CBOT大豆01 （美分/蒲） | 1105.25 -14.25（-1.27%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕01 （美元/短吨） | 307.4 -3.8（-1.22%） | | n a | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | | | 3010～3070， 较昨持平至+10； | 现货基差M2601+30/+60， 持平； | 12月M2601+20， | | | 山东 （元/吨） | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Dominance**: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, cotton [1] - **Bearish Dominance**: Red dates, live pigs [1] - **Range - bound**: Rapeseed oil [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bullish oscillations. Although the current supply is sufficient, the expected decrease in weekly crushing volume may relieve supply pressure. Wait for the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) December report and follow the progress of South American soybean planting weather [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term bullish oscillations. The spot market is inactive, but due to weather premium speculation on the soybean meal side and low rapeseed import expectations, the far - month contracts are expected to be bullish. Pay attention to the USDA December report and China - Canada trade progress [1][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Expected to stop falling in stages. Although there is a high probability of inventory accumulation in November in Malaysia, factors such as floods in Southeast Asia and increased Indian purchases have boosted market sentiment. Be cautious when chasing long at high levels and look for opportunities to go long on dips after adjustments [1][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term bullish oscillations. The domestic inventory has slightly decreased but is still higher than the five - year average. Follow the South American soybean weather and treat it as a range - bound market this week [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Range - bound. The fundamentals are strong, but the spot trading is sluggish. It is advisable to focus on far - month contracts when going long. Pay attention to the import situation of Australian and Russian rapeseed and rapeseed oil [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish. Globally, the market is more focused on weather. Domestically, new cotton sales are progressing quickly, and the cost support is strengthening. However, there are still pressures from high inventory and hedging. Consider going long on dips and look for medium - to - long - term recovery opportunities [1][12]. - **Red Dates**: Bearish oscillations. With the peak of new product listings and the arrival of the consumption season, the market is bearish overall. However, since most of the price premiums from speculation on production cuts have been squeezed out, avoid excessive short - selling and maintain short - term observation [1][14]. - **Live Pigs**: Bearish oscillations. In December, the supply pressure is high, and it is difficult to support the spot price. For the near - month 01 contract, focus on short - selling opportunities. The 03 contract is also bearish, and the short - term long - buying opportunities for 09 and 11 contracts can be considered after the supply pressure is released [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 957.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.10 million tons; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 733.96 million tons, a 2.65% increase from last week; and the soybean meal inventory was 120.32 million tons, a 4.49% increase from last week [3]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2821 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3111.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.05% [2]. - **Spread**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 660 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of November 28, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.01 tons, both unchanged from last week [6]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2377 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.86% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2474.74 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.76% [4]. - **Spread**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 660 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 65.35 million tons, a 2.04% decrease from last week [7]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8770 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.20% from the previous day; the national average price was 8798 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69% [7]. - **Export**: In November 2025, Malaysia's palm oil export volume decreased compared with the previous month [8]. Cotton - **Global Situation**: In the US, new cotton harvesting is nearing completion, but precipitation in late November was unfavorable for the harvest. In India, new cotton arrivals are stable, but rainfall in late November affected MSP purchases. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87%, and the 2026 new cotton planting has started in non - main producing areas [10]. - **Domestic Situation**: New cotton picking is basically completed, and the inspection volume exceeds 474 million tons. The sales progress is fast, and the cost of new - season lint is locked at 14600 - 15000 yuan/ton. The national commercial inventory has increased to 446 million tons [11]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract (CF2601) closed at 13750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% from the previous day; the CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 15022 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.16% [9]. Red Dates - **Supply**: The acquisition in some areas is completed, and the acquisition progress in other areas is about 80%. The acquisition price is showing a weak trend [14]. - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 13910 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3062 tons, but lower than the same period last year [14]. - **Price**: The futures prices of contracts such as CJ2601 and CJ2603 have increased to varying degrees, while most spot prices remain stable [13]. Live Pigs - **Supply**: In December, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises has increased by 3.2%. The overall supply pressure is high, but the long - term supply may decrease as the number of fertile sows has decreased [16][17]. - **Demand**: The demand has marginally improved, with an increase in pork sales, but the slaughter profit has decreased [15][17]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract (Ih2601) remained unchanged at 11385 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price of live pigs was 11540 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17% [15].

国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2025年12月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：成本支撑，高位震荡市 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：单边高位震荡市 | 2 | | MEG：价格创新低，趋势偏弱 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：震荡回落 | 6 | | 沥青：油价反弹，窄幅震荡 | 8 | | LLDPE：基差转弱，上游抛压继续释放 | 10 | | PP：中期趋势仍有压力 | 11 | | 烧碱：趋势仍有压力 | 12 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 13 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 15 | | 甲醇：承压运行 | 16 | | 尿素：震荡回落 | 18 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 20 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | LPG：短期需求坚挺，中长期仍承压 | 22 | | 丙烯：供应存增量预期，上行驱动有限 | 22 | | PVC：低位震荡 | 25 | | 燃料油：窄幅震荡，或暂时摆脱弱势 | 26 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘反弹，外盘现货高低硫价差 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 星期一 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周五（12 月 5 日） A 股三大指数集体走强，截止收盘，沪指涨 0.70%，收报 3902.81 点； 深证成指涨 1.08%，收报 13147.68 点；创业板指涨 1.36%，收报 3109.30 点。沪深两市成交额达到 17258 亿，较 昨日放量 1768 亿。 沪深 300 指数 12 月 5 日强势。收盘 4584.54，环比上涨 37.97。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】12 月 5 日焦炭加权指数宽幅震荡，收盘价 1646.9，环比下跌 40.4。 12 月 5 日，焦煤加权指数区间整理，收盘价 1108.9 元，环比下跌 18.5。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：原料煤价格回调，焦企盈利能力改善、环保扰动弱化，生产积极性较高。需求，铁水小幅下降，原料 刚需仍有支撑，但因钢厂焦炭到货好转，部分钢厂基于检修有一定控量现象。 焦煤：山西吕梁地区部分煤矿因事故停产，区域内供应有所收窄；国内煤矿减产，但煤矿库存保持增加，累 库放缓。进口煤中，蒙煤平均通车 1300-14 ...

2025 年 12 月 8 日 LPG：短期需求坚挺，中长期仍承压 丙烯：供应存增量预期，上行驱动有限 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | PG2601 | 4,268 | -1.14% | 4,307 | 0.91% | | | PG2602 | 4,189 | -1.11% | 4,226 | 0.88% | | | PL2601 | 5,944 | 0.15% | 5,932 | -0.20% | | | PL2602 | 5,820 | -0.82% | 5,830 | 0.17% | | | PL2603 | 5,818 | -1.14% | 5,833 | 0.26% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2601 | 60,478 | 6542 | 64,082 | -4276 | | 持仓&成交 ...

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 2025年12月08日 | 棕榈油：等待拐点确认，暂时区间操作 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动不足，震荡为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆收跌，连粕或跟随偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 7 | | 棉花：涨势放缓关注下游需求 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：现货震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：弱势延续，基差逻辑回归 | 11 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 8 日 棕榈油：等待拐点确认，暂时区间操作 豆油：美豆驱动不足，震荡为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 MPOA：马来西亚 11 月 1-30 日棕榈油产量预估减少 4.38%，其中马来半岛减少 5%，沙巴减少 3.75%，沙捞越减少 3.3%。 ITS：马来西亚 12 月 1-5 日棕榈油出口量为 182785 吨，较上月 ...