Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is in a unilateral oscillating market, with a trend strength of 0. The recommended strategies are month - spread positive arbitrage and shorting PXN at high levels [1][7]. - PTA should be concerned about the implementation of polyester filament factory production cuts, with a trend strength of 0. A month - spread reverse arbitrage operation is advised [1][7]. - MEG is in a unilateral oscillating market, with a trend strength of 1. The suggestions are to conduct basis and month - spread positive arbitrage and not to chase short positions due to low valuation [1][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - **PX**: On July 9, the price of PX rose. One August Asian spot was traded at $855, and one September Asian spot was traded at $847. The end - of - day valuation was $850/ton, up $3 from the previous day. The price of naphtha rose at the end of the session, and the current estimate for August MOPJ is $594/ton CFR. However, the sentiment in the downstream PTA and polyester sectors remains weak [3]. - **PTA**: In China, on July 9, several major polyester yarn and fiber producers were discussing a new round of production cut, but no definite decision had been made as of that date [5]. - **MEG**: On July 9, the average daily price of MEG spot was 4,347 yuan/ton, and the average daily price of futures for late August was also 4,347 yuan/ton. The average spot price in the Ningbo market was 4,362 yuan/ton, and the average non - coal - based spot price in the South China market was 4,365 yuan/ton [6]. - **Polyester**: On July 9, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved moderately compared to the previous day, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 59%. The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an estimated average sales - to - production ratio of just over 40% [6]. Trend Strength - The trend strength of p - xylene is 0, indicating a neutral view [7]. - The trend strength of PTA is 0, also indicating a neutral view [7]. - The trend strength of MEG is 1, suggesting a slightly bullish view [7]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: Conduct month - spread positive arbitrage and short PXN at high levels. The supply - demand pattern of PX is tight due to the upcoming commissioning of Sanfangxiang's 3 million - ton PTA plant and the planned maintenance of South Korea's Hanwha's 1.2 million - ton PX plant in August. PXN is at a high valuation and shows a weakening trend [7]. - **PTA**: Perform month - spread reverse arbitrage operations. The basis has dropped significantly, factories are selling, and traders' positive arbitrage positions are being stopped out. Supply will be marginally looser from mid - July, and it is expected that PTA will continue to accumulate inventory with increasing supply and decreasing demand [7]. - **MEG**: Due to the strong coal price at the cost end, relevant coal - chemical products have rebounded. With a low valuation, conduct basis and month - spread positive arbitrage and avoid chasing short positions [7].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 10 日 焦炭：震荡偏强 焦煤：消息扰动，震荡偏强 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | JM2509 | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) 871.5 | 涨跌(元/吨) 28 | 张跃幅 3. 32% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | | J2509 | 1456 | 31.5 | 2. 21% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 1245012 | 555558 | 10571 | | | | J2509 | 27440 | 48461 | 381 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 焦煤 | 临汾低硫主焦 山西仓单成本 | 1200 894 | 1180 894 | 20 0 | | | | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 927 | 927 | 0 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1 ...

| 11/11/2 | > 国技期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月09日 | | 影丙烯 | なな女 | 塑料 | ☆☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯苯 | 女女女 | 苯乙烯 | なな女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | PX | なな女 | PTA | ☆☆☆ | | | 乙二醇 | ☆☆☆ | 短纤 | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 瓶片 | 女女女 | 甲醇 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 尿素 | 女女女 | PVC | なな女 | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 烧碱 | ななな | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 纯碱 | ☆☆☆ | | | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇】 甲醇盘面持续下跌。江浙地区MTO ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Consolidation [1] - LPG: Consolidation [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX: Fluctuation [1] - PTA/PR: Bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Buy on pullback [1][26] - Soda ash: Short on rebound [1][28] - Caustic soda: Continue to rebound [1][31] - Methanol: Bearish [1][34] - Urea: Short on rebound [1][3] - Asphalt: Short on rebound [1][3] Core Views of the Report - The production increase pressure of crude oil is gradually rising, while there is support in the short - term peak season; LPG follows the cost - end oil price to consolidate; L and PP are in a bearish consolidation state with supply - demand imbalance; PVC is under supply - side pressure; PX is oscillating with supply - demand changing from tight to loose; PTA/PR and ethylene glycol are expected to be bearish due to supply - demand changes; glass has policy expectations but is constrained by reality; soda ash is under high - supply and high - inventory pressure; caustic soda continues to rebound with supply - demand factors; methanol is bearish due to supply and demand feedback; urea has high supply pressure; asphalt has short - term rebound but long - term cost - end pressure [1]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fluctuated within a range, with WTI down 1.40%, Brent up 0.82%, and SC up 1.72% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ decided to increase production in August, but the oil price has strong support below. It is currently in the consumption peak season, and Saudi Arabia raised the official OSP in August. The demand growth rate decreased slightly, and the US inventory data showed mixed changes [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to factors such as the trade war and new energy impact, the supply is expected to be in excess, with the price fluctuating between 60 - 70 dollars/barrel. In the short - term, supply pressure is rising, so lightly short positions and buy call options for protection. SC focuses on [510 - 530] [6]. LPG - **Market Review**: On July 8, the PG main contract closed at 4184 yuan/ton, up 0.12% month - on - month. The spot prices in different regions showed different changes [8]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream oil price is the main factor. OPEC+ plans to increase production in August, but there is short - term support. The PDH profit improved slightly, the开工 rate decreased, and the inventory decreased [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the valuation of LPG is high. In the short - term, it is oscillating. Lightly short positions and buy call options for protection. PG focuses on [4130 - 4230] [10]. L - **Basic Logic**: The downstream demand is in the off - season, and although the cost support improves, the supply - demand is weak. The device maintenance intensity increases, but new devices are planned to be put into production in the medium - long term, so the expectation is weak [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebound, and sell - hedging can be considered. L focuses on [7200 - 7300] [12]. PP - **Market Review**: The closing prices of PP contracts decreased slightly, and the main contract's position and some prices in the spot market also decreased [14]. - **Basic Logic**: The downstream demand is weak, but the cost support improves due to the rising international oil price. The supply pressure still exists, and new capacity is planned to be added in the third quarter [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebound, and consider the 9 - 1 positive spread. PP focuses on [7000 - 7100] [14]. PVC - **Basic Logic**: The production enterprise's start - up change is limited, the inventory pressure increases in the off - season, the cost support weakens, and it is necessary to pay attention to new device production and policy changes [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebound. V focuses on [4800 - 5000] [17]. PX - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in the East China region was flat, and the futures price of the PX09 contract decreased [18]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas device loads are high. The demand of the PTA side weakens recently but is expected to improve. The supply - demand changes from tight to loose, and the inventory is still high [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short - term. PX focuses on [6650 - 6750] [19]. PTA/PR - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in the East China region decreased, and the futures price of the TA09 contract also decreased [20]. - **Basic Logic**: The restart of maintenance devices makes the supply abundant. The downstream polyester production reduction and the decline of terminal weaving start - up rate lead to weakening demand. The inventory is in a neutral state, and the processing fee is high with a weakening expectation [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies. TA focuses on [4680 - 4750] [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On July 5, the spot price in the East China region was flat, and the futures price of the EG09 contract decreased [23]. - **Basic Logic**: Many domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance or temporary shutdown, and the arrival volume is expected to increase. The demand side weakens, and the supply - demand is expected to be more relaxed. The low inventory supports the price [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies. EG focuses on [4240 - 4290] [25]. Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market quotation decreased, and the futures price increased slightly, with the basis narrowing and the warehouse receipt unchanged [26]. - **Basic Logic**: The policy expects to improve the supply - demand pattern, but the short - term market is restricted by reality. The production capacity fluctuates at a low level, the inventory decreases, and the fuel price and spot price changes have an impact on the market [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focuses on [1020 - 1050] [27]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The heavy - alkali spot price increased, the futures price increased slightly, the main basis remained unchanged, and the warehouse receipt and forecast decreased [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The policy hype effect weakens, and the soda ash factory accumulates inventory again. The supply is still high, and the inventory is difficult to reduce. The downstream support is average, and the terminal consumption is weak [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA focuses on [1170 - 1200] [30]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The caustic soda spot price increased, the futures price center moved up, the basis strengthened, and the warehouse receipt increased [32]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is under pressure due to high - load production and new capacity expectations, but there is a de - stocking expectation in the maintenance season. The demand of the main downstream alumina increases, but non - aluminum demand is weak. The cost support moves down, and the inventory decreases [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SH focuses on [2400 - 2450] [33]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in the East China region decreased, and the futures price of the main contract also decreased. The basis and some spreads changed [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream profit is good, and the domestic and overseas device loads are high. The arrival volume may be low in early July but is expected to start accumulating inventory later. The demand feedback is negative, and the social inventory is accumulating. The cost support is weak [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA focuses on [2340 - 2380] [36]. Urea - **Basic Logic**: The maintenance intensity increases recently, but the daily output is expected to return to a high level. The industrial demand is weak, and the agricultural demand is also lower than before, but the fertilizer export growth is fast. The cost has some support [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebound and pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies. UR focuses on [1740 - 1780] [3]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price rebounds in the short - term, and the asphalt inventory decreases, but the long - term cost - end pressure is large. The supply increases, the demand is affected by the weather, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short positions. BU focuses on [3550 - 3650] [3].

Core Viewpoint - Knight Dairy has faced significant penalties due to substantial losses in futures trading and failure to disclose this information in a timely manner, leading to warnings and fines from regulatory authorities [1][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Losses and Penalties - In 2024, Knight Dairy engaged in futures trading for commodities such as soybean meal, sugar, and urea, resulting in cumulative losses of up to 41.12% of its 2023 audited net profit by the end of the year [2][3]. - The total penalties imposed by the Inner Mongolia Securities Regulatory Bureau amount to 3.4 million yuan, with specific fines for the chairman and other executives totaling 340,000 yuan [1][3]. - As of January 17, 2024, the cumulative losses from futures trading reached 902.46 million yuan, representing 12.60% of the 2022 audited net profit [2]. Group 2: Company Operations and Strategy - Knight Dairy, established in 1992, operates across the entire dairy supply chain, including feed crop planting, dairy farming, dairy processing, and sugar production, and was listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange in October 2023 [5][6]. - The company has been increasing investments in upstream industries, aiming to expand its sugar project and optimize its agricultural and dairy supply chain over the next 3-5 years [5][6]. - Despite a decline in milk prices, Knight Dairy has continued to invest in its livestock business, with recent capital injections into its wholly-owned subsidiary [6]. Group 3: Market Environment and Risks - The dairy industry has been facing challenges, with milk prices in major producing provinces averaging 3.32 yuan per kilogram in 2024, a decrease of 13.5% year-on-year [7]. - The sugar market is also volatile, influenced by futures market fluctuations, natural disasters, and policies from major importing and exporting countries, which can lead to revenue instability [7].

2025/7/9 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 16,900.00 -0.44% 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,160.00 -0.29% 沪铅基差 元/吨 -260.00 -25.00 升贴水-上海 元/吨 -40.00 15.00 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -23.04 2.27 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -60.80 -0.50 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -55.00 -10.00 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 -30.00 -15.00 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 - 15.00 期货活跃合约成交量 手 35,649.00 21.23% 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 51,617.00 1.12% 成交持仓比 / 0.69 19.89% LME库存 吨 0.00% 258,075.00 沪铅仓单库存 吨 47,713.00 1.92% LME3个月铅期货收盘价（电子盘） 美元/吨 2,044.00 0.32% 沪伦铅价比值 / 8.40 -0.61% SMM1#锌锭平均价格 元/吨 21,970.00 -1.04% 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 22,050 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 基本面未改善，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局有所走弱，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗有所减量，相对利好的是仍处年内高位， 给予矿价支撑。与此同时，港口到货虽有所回升，但矿商发运则是持续大幅减量，多因财年末结束， 相应的内矿生产弱稳，矿石供应迎来收缩，关注持续性情况。总之，乐观情绪发酵，矿价震荡走高， 但目前供需 ...

2025年7月8日 星期二 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：7 月 7 日，A 股四大股指多数下行，其中上证指数上涨 0.02%，报收 3473.13 点；深成指 下跌 0.7%，报收 10435.51 点；创业板指下跌 1.21%，报收 2130.19 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.66%， 报收 978.29 点。市场成交 12,271 亿元，较前日减少 2,275 亿元。行业板块方面，综合(+2.57%)， 公用事业(+1.87%)，房地产(+1.68%)涨幅居前；煤炭(-2.04%)，医药生物(-0.97%)，通信(-0.77%)跌 幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IH>IF，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,254/185/1,977。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-42、-98、-18、158 亿元，分别变动+44、+52、-34、-62 亿 元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 139.14、96.01、37.77 与 23.13 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-18.33%、-13.56%、-7.94%与-7.06%，三年期历史分位数分别为 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PX: Go for positive spread trading in calendar spreads and short PXN on rallies. With the upcoming commissioning of Sanfangxiang's 3 million - ton PTA plant and Hanwha's 1.2 million - ton PX plant scheduled for maintenance in August, the PX supply - demand pattern is tight, and positive spread trading in calendar spreads is recommended at low levels. PXN is at a high valuation with a weakening trend [9]. - PTA: Conduct reverse spread trading in calendar spreads. From mid - July, supply will gradually ease as Yisheng Hainan increases its load and Sanfangxiang's PTA plant starts production, while polyester production cuts are on the way. With supply increasing and demand decreasing, PTA will continue to accumulate inventory, so reverse spread trading in calendar spreads is advisable [9]. - MEG: Do positive spread trading in basis and calendar spreads, and avoid shorting on valuation. After the ethane bis certification is passed, the raw material supply of domestic ethane cracking plants will be sufficient again, and the 09 contract may weaken relatively, causing the calendar spread to decline significantly. However, the further downward space of the 9 - 1 spread may be limited. Overseas MEG plants are under maintenance, and imports are expected to be tight in August. Although port inventory has increased recently, the overall inventory is at a low level, and the basis is still strong. Positive spread trading in the 9 - 1 spread at low levels is recommended, and going long on the single - side at low levels is advisable [9][10][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: The naphtha price rebounded at the end of the session, and the August MOPJ is currently estimated at $574/ton. The PX price rebounded slightly today, with an August Asian spot deal at $851 and a September Asian spot deal at $837. The PX price is estimated at $842/ton, up $2 from last Friday. The expected commissioning of Sanfangxiang's new 3.2 million - ton/year PTA plant in the third quarter has boosted market sentiment, but due to weak upstream crude oil and the expectation of supply relief, the upside potential may be limited. The operating rates of PX producers in South Korea and China seem to be rising, and Hanwha Total in South Korea will shut down its 1.2 million - ton/year PX plant for maintenance starting in August, expected to last for two months [4][6][7]. - PTA: A 2 million - ton PTA plant in South China reduced its load to 50% at the beginning of the month and has now returned to normal operation [7]. - MEG: A 150,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang restarted production recently and is currently operating at near - full capacity. The port inventory of MEG in East China is about 580,000 tons, up 35,000 tons from the previous period. The sales of polyester in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are generally weak, with the average sales volume estimated to be less than 40% as of 3:30 pm today, and the average sales volume of direct - spun polyester staple fiber is 51% as of 3:00 pm [8][9]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 0 - PTA trend intensity: - 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [9] Futures and Spot Data - **Futures**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures yesterday were 6684, 4710, 4279, 6518, and 502.3 respectively. The price changes were 6672, 0, 2, 4, and - 1.2, and the percentage changes were 12, 0.00%, 0.05%, 0.06%, and - 0.24% respectively. The calendar spreads of PX9 - 1, PTA9 - 1, MEG9 - 1, PF8 - 9, and SC8 - 9 yesterday were 108, 70, - 26, 120, and 3.8 respectively, with price changes of 18, 10, 10, 4, and - 0.6 [2]. - **Spot**: The spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent yesterday were $841.67/ton, 4790 yuan/ton, 4347 yuan/ton, $577/ton, and $71.3/barrel respectively, with price changes of $2, - 45 yuan, - 14 yuan, - 1.75 dollars, and $0.57 respectively. The spot processing margins of PX - naphtha, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil were $260.92/ton, 300.03 yuan/ton, 273.8 yuan/ton, - 479.2 yuan/ton, and - 7.42 dollars respectively, with price changes of - 10.38 dollars, 10.84 yuan, 13.7 yuan, 15.7 yuan, and 0 dollars respectively [2].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年7月7日 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 6、预期：上周PTA装置检修重启并行，当前市场供需矛盾并不突出，且社会库存处于偏低水平，预计短期内PTA现货价格仍跟随 成本端震荡调整，现货基差快速下行后托底效应或将显现。关注OPEC+会议结果及聚酯负荷波动。 1、基本面：周五，贸易商商谈为主。下周货在09+90~105有成交，价格商谈区间在4800~4870附近。7月中在09+95~100有成交。 今日主流现货基差在09+97。中性 2、基差：现货4872，09合约基差125，盘面贴水 偏多 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.95天，环比减少0.14天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均 ...