Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot prices of mainstream radiata pine products in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained stable, with a price difference of 0 yuan/m³ for 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine between the two regions. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply [4]. - As of December 21, there were 33 ships departing from New Zealand in December, with 26 bound for mainland China. It is estimated that 15 ships will arrive in December and 18 in January, with an expected arrival volume of 1.58 million cubic meters in December [5][8]. - As of the week of December 26, the daily average shipment volume and inventory of the four major ports remained unchanged from the previous week, with a total inventory of 1.9131 million cubic meters [6]. - As of December 31, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 776 yuan/m³, a 0.3% increase from the previous week. The market was in a high - level oscillation pattern with a weak supply - demand fundamental situation. The monthly spreads tended to narrow [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of December 21, there were 33 ships departing from New Zealand in December, 26 of which were going to mainland China and 7 to Taiwan, China, and South Korea for partial unloading. It is expected that about 15 ships will arrive in December and 18 in January, with an expected arrival volume of 1.58 million cubic meters in December [5][8]. - Detailed information on the departure time, load, current port, expected destination port, and expected arrival time of 33 ships from New Zealand in December is provided [8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of January 2, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 21,600 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), and that of Taicang Port was 14,600 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week). - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.2668 million cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), Taicang Port about 385,500 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), Xinminzhou about 126,500 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), and Jiangdu Port about 134,300 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week). The total inventory of the four major ports was 1.9131 million cubic meters, with no change in inventory from the previous week [12]. - A table shows the inventory and daily shipment volume of major domestic ports over multiple time periods, including inventory changes compared to the previous week and four weeks ago [13]. 3.3 Market Trends - As of December 31, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 776 yuan/m³, a 0.3% increase from the previous week. The market was in a high - level oscillation pattern, and the fundamentals maintained a weak supply - demand situation. The monthly spreads tended to narrow. The 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 10.5 yuan/m³, the 03 - 07 monthly spread was - 22.5 yuan/m³, and the 05 - 07 monthly spread was - 12 yuan/m³ [18]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: The report provides the spot price data of various tree species and specifications of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu regions, showing that most prices remained unchanged from the previous week [21]. - **Regional Spread**: The report presents the price spreads of mainstream tree species between Shandong and Jiangsu regions, including 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, etc. [22][23]. - **Species and Specification Spread**: The report shows the price spreads between different tree species and specifications, such as the spread between 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine and 40 + radiata pine [41]. 3.5 Other - **Freight and Exchange Rate**: As of the week of January 4, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1877.00 points, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 719 points, and the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1656.32 points. The US dollar index weakened, the US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.003, a 0.06% decrease from the previous week, and the US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 1.3% to 1.736 [56]. - A table shows the changes in freight - related indices and exchange rates over multiple time periods, including the comparison with the previous week and four weeks ago [55].

Market Performance - On the last trading day before the holiday, the Dalian japonica rice futures showed a strong performance, with the main contract slightly increasing by 0.30% to 3618.00 yuan/ton [1] Market News - According to the USDA, as of the week ending December 18, net sales of corn for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 2.202 million tons, up from 1.744 million tons the previous week; for the 2026/2027 marketing year, net sales were 21,000 tons, compared to 0 tons the prior week; corn export shipments for 2025/2026 reached 1.759 million tons, an increase from 1.446 million tons the week before [1] - The Algerian Ministry of Agriculture announced plans to import 1.15 million tons of feed corn by the end of February 2026 due to domestic supply shortages, aiming to establish a national feed corn inventory to ensure stable supply and market stability [1] - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) projected that Brazil's corn exports in December would be 3.52 million tons, down from the previous week's estimate of 6.35 million tons [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicates a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggests a short - term equilibrium in the market trend and poor trading operability [1] - Alumina: Not clearly rated in a standard way [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, implies a bullish - leaning trend with limited trading operability [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, shows a short - term balanced market trend and poor operability [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, indicates a bullish - leaning trend with limited trading opportunities [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly rated in a standard way [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly rated in a standard way [1] - Polysilicon: Not clearly rated in a standard way [1] Core Views of the Report - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, cost, and policy, showing different trends. Some metals may continue to fluctuate, while others may face price adjustments or trend changes [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - The Shanghai copper futures closed with a negative candlestick in a volatile manner. The spot copper price was 98,820 yuan, with a Shanghai discount of 190 yuan. The LME market has a large number of in - the - money call options. After the holiday, wait for overseas institutions to revise their copper price expectations. Continue the previous options combination strategy, and pay attention to smelter production schedules, social inventory changes, and trading volume shrinkage, as the price may continue to decline [2] Aluminum and Alumina - The Shanghai aluminum futures rose, and the spot discounts in East, Central, and South China widened. The fundamentals of the aluminum market lack driving force, but the upward trend following the sector remains. Long positions can be held based on the 40 - day moving average, and pay attention to the resistance at 23,000 yuan. The price of Baotai ADC12 spot increased by 100 yuan to 22,000 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and tax adjustments may increase costs in some areas. The seasonal spread between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum is weaker than in previous years. The alumina market is in significant surplus. With the decline in bauxite prices, costs have room to fall, and there is still profit in cash - cost accounting. In the short term, the decline of alumina spot prices is slowing down, but medium - term stabilization requires large - scale production cuts [3] Zinc - The TC is at a low level, smelter maintenance continues, and the import window is closed. The supply pressure of zinc has weakened, and the overall rebound trend remains. The consumption outlook for January is moderately optimistic. With the start of the 14th Five - Year Plan, there are high expectations for a good start. National subsidies may return, and there is still demand for downstream pre - holiday stockpiling. Consumption may not be weak in the off - season, but production is still a drag, constraining the upside of Shanghai zinc. Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [4] Aluminum (Another Section) - Maintenance of primary aluminum delivery brand smelters continues, and the SMM aluminum social inventory is less than 20,000 tons, supporting the price increase. However, battery enterprises conduct year - end inventory checks and suspend spot procurement for 3 - 7 days. Shanghai lead faces obvious pressure around 17,500 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is stronger in the domestic market than in the overseas market, and the spot import window is open. Affected by low - priced overseas aluminum ingots, Shanghai aluminum is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom near the cost, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel price rose and then fell, with active market trading. The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association reduced the nickel ore quota and will revise the mineral reference price formula in early 2026. Near the end of the year, the downstream's purchasing intention weakened, and the continuous high spot premium reduced traders' willingness to hold goods. The spot trading was relatively quiet. In the stainless - steel market, the rising ferro - nickel price pushed up the cost, but the overall profit was restored. The previous stainless - steel production cuts had limited impact, the social inventory decreased, and the downstream's purchasing intention was mainly in the form of more inquiries. The high - nickel ferro - nickel was quoted at 912 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price began to show a rebound transmission. In the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment. The pure nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 58,000 tons, the nickel - iron inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 29,300 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 892,000 tons. Due to policy disturbances in the nickel market, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [7] Tin - The trading volume of Shanghai tin futures decreased to the level at the beginning of December. The spot tin was reported at 326,450 yuan, with a real - time premium of 1,800 yuan. There is no new news about the geopolitical situation recently. Pay attention to the mining conference that may be held around the New Year. The volatility has converged from a high level. Hold the 350,000 sell - call options again and observe the adjustment range [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price opened high and then fell, with active market trading but large differences. Some holders' previous goods have been pre - ordered, and there are frequent inquiries. However, the mid - and downstream's acceptance of high prices is limited. They have sufficient pre - holiday stockpiling and are cautious about high prices. The overall market trading is relatively quiet. The total market inventory decreased by 700 tons to 110,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 200 tons to 18,000 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 1,600 tons to 40,000 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 52,000 tons. The inventory in the mid - stream is relatively high, providing some support to the spot market. The latest Australian ore price is 1,565 US dollars, and the ore price remains strong. Technically, the lithium price has entered the trend - ending stage, and risk prevention should be noted [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. Recently, some silicon enterprises have reduced production, but the overall scale is less than expected. On the demand side, the polysilicon production in January is expected to decrease slightly month - on - month, and the operating rate of organic silicon is expected to continue to decline under the implementation of emission - reduction policies. The latest SMM industrial silicon social inventory is 555,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons month - on - month, and the Xinjiang factory inventory still has the pressure of inventory accumulation. Overall, the recent strengthening of the industrial silicon futures price and the divergence between the futures and spot prices are due to the expected large - scale production cuts at the end of December. However, the implementation is slow, and the demand is under marginal pressure. The trend may turn to oscillatory consolidation, and further observe the changes in Xinjiang's production [10] Polysilicon - The trading activity of polysilicon futures has declined. After a pre - holiday correction, it turned to oscillation. On the spot side, the price of N - type compound feedstock remains stable at 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the polysilicon production in January is expected to decrease slightly month - on - month. However, compared with the recent production cuts in the silicon wafer sector, the polysilicon market still faces the pressure of inventory accumulation. In the expected dimension, the industry's anti - involution trend continues, and policy support is sustainable. With stricter trading supervision, the futures price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation [11]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 螺纹钢市场周报 现货成交清淡 螺纹期价区间波动 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 「 周度要点小结2」 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格及价差：截至12月31日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价3122（+4），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3330（+20）。（单位： 元/吨/周） 2. 产量：螺纹产量上调。184.39（+2.71），同比（-31.91）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求回落。本期表需202.68（-5.96），（同比-16.9）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库增，社库继续下滑。螺纹钢总库存434.25（-18.29），（同比+34.51）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率37.23%，环比上周增加1.30个百分点，同比去年减少12.55个百分点。 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）美联储公布的12月会议纪要显示，F ...

Report Overview - Research Variety: Corn starch [1] - Report Cycle: Daily [1] - Date: December 29, 2025 [1] 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Quotes - The cs2603 contract of corn starch futures mainly showed a fluctuating upward trend on December 29, 2025. The closing price was 2,535 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 131,000 lots, an increase of 20,270 lots compared with the previous trading day. The open interest was 200,000 lots, an increase of 8,199 lots compared with the previous trading day [2] 1.2 Variety Prices - The total open interest of 6 contracts of corn starch futures was 263,701 lots, an increase of 909 lots compared with the previous trading day [4] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Spot Quotes - On December 29, 2025, the spot quotes of corn starch in some domestic regions were as follows: Heilongjiang 2,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; Liaoning 2,730 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jilin 2,620 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei 2,790 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shandong 2,730 yuan/ton, unchanged [7] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry News - On December 29, the CIF price of imported US corn was 269 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton from the previous day. The import cost was 2,178 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The import cost after additional tariffs was 2,383 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the previous day [7] 4. Market Outlook - The 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages of the cs2603 contract of corn starch are showing a long - position arrangement. The grain sales progress in the Northeast corn - producing area this year is faster than the same period last year, and the grain quality is generally good. However, the willingness of grass - roots farmers to sell grain is average, and the downstream demand support is insufficient. It is expected that the price of the cs2603 contract of corn starch will continue to fluctuate in the future [9]

苯乙烯库存回建周期迟迟未兑现 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-142元/吨（-33）。纯苯港口库存30.00万吨（+2.70万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费137美元/ 吨（+5美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费129美元/吨（+3美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差179.9美元/吨（+0.0美元/吨）。华东 纯苯现货-M2价差-160元/吨（-10元/吨）。 纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-12-31 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-370元/吨（+40），酚酮生产利润-902元/吨（+0），苯胺生产利润857元/吨（+68）， 己二酸生产利润-836元/吨（+39）。己内酰胺开工率74.04%（-0.12%），苯酚开工率78.50%（+2.50%），苯胺开工率 62.98%（+1.63%），己二酸开工率63.60%（+4.00%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差84元/吨（+11元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润88元/吨（+69元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存138800吨（-500吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存83300吨（-1250吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙烯开 工率70.7%（+1 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-31 单边：短期区间操作，关注消费与库存拐点，择机逢高卖出套保 假期临近，碳酸锂热情降温 市场分析 2025-12-30，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于117000元/吨，收于121580元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-3.77%。当 日成交量为459530手，持仓量为511309手，前一交易日持仓量512345手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-1960 元/吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单19491手，较上个交易日变化1300手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价114000-122000元/吨，较前一交易日变化0元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报 价112000-118000元/吨，较前一交易日变化0元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1550美元/吨，较前一日变化-15美元/吨。广期所 公告，自2025年12月30日（星期二）结算时起，碳酸锂期货合约涨跌停板幅度调整为10%，投机交易保证金标准调 整为12%，套期保值交易保证金标准调整为11%，2026年1月5日（星期一）恢复交易后，在各品种期货持仓量最大 的合约未出现涨跌停板单边无连续报价的第一个交易日结算时起，碳酸锂 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. In a situation of double reduction in supply and demand, the upside potential depends on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory depletion progress, while the downside is limited by cost support and production cut expectations. [3] - Polysilicon prices are expected to remain in the range of 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton for range-bound consolidation. The risk control measures of raising the margin by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have raised the trading and holding threshold and affected market sentiment. Currently, it is waiting for the fundamentals to become clearer. [6] Group 3: Market Analysis - Industrial Silicon - On December 30, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and rose. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,705 yuan/ton and closed at 8,915 yuan/ton, a change of 95 yuan/ton (1.08%) from the previous settlement. As of the close, the main contract 2605 had a position of 216,220 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on December 29, 2025, was 10,027 lots, a change of 120 lots from the previous day. [1] - Industrial silicon spot prices remained basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 (0) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 (0) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygenated 553 price was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable. [1] - As of December 18, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 553,000 tons, a change of -1.43% from the previous week. Among them, the social general warehouse was 138,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse (including the part not registered as warehouse receipts and the spot warehouse) was 415,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week. [1] Group 4: Market Analysis - Consumption of Industrial Silicon - According to SMM statistics, the quotation of silicone DMC was 13,500 - 13,700 (0) yuan/ton. SMM reported that the weekly output of polysilicon was basically stable. The planned production of polysilicon in December was around 114,000 tons, a slight decrease from November, with limited change in the demand for industrial silicon. [2] - The weekly production schedule of silicone fluctuated slightly from the previous week. In early December, monomer plants successively reduced production, and the production schedule decreased compared to November. The reduction in industrial silicon consumption in December may be around 5,000 tons. [2] - The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises remained stable. The secondary aluminum enterprises in Chongqing that reduced production due to air pollution last week maintained the production - reduction state this week. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy showed marginal weakness, and it is expected that the operating rate will be mainly stable with a weak trend in the future. [2] Group 5: Strategy - Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Inter - period: None - Inter - commodity: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [3] Group 6: Market Analysis - Polysilicon - On December 30, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2605 fluctuated downward, opening at 56,500 yuan/ton and closing at 57,890 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of -0.19% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 83,335 (95,631 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on the day was 42,713 lots. [3] - Polysilicon spot prices strengthened slightly. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 50.00 - 55.00 (0.10) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. [3] - According to SMM statistics, the inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, and the silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 30.30, a change of 3.40% from the previous period, the silicon wafer inventory was 21.69 GW, a change of 0.88% from the previous period, the weekly output of polysilicon was 25,300.00 tons, a change of 1.20% from the previous period, and the silicon wafer output was 10.33 GW, a change of -3.19% from the previous period. [3] - In terms of silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.35 (0.10) yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210mm was 1.65 (0.10) yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.45 (0.10) yuan/piece. [3] Group 7: Market Analysis - Battery Cells and Components of Polysilicon - In terms of battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.38 (0.02) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.38 (0.02) yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.38 (0.02) yuan/W. HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W. [5] - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W. [5] Group 8: Strategy - Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton - Inter - period: None - Inter - commodity: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter-period: None [3] - Inter-variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ethylene glycol (EG) market continues to accumulate inventory, and prices are consolidating at low levels. The current price is not high, but the downstream implicit inventory has also accumulated to a high level. With the increase in port inventory, the liquidity of goods in the market has increased. In addition, the production pressure is relatively large, and the inventory accumulation pressure from January to February remains relatively high, limiting the rebound space [1][3] - On the domestic supply side, the reduction of syngas-based production load is not obvious, and the domestic ethylene glycol load has rebounded to a high level of over 70%. The inventory accumulation pressure remains high under the high supply from January to February and the weakening demand. Overseas, with the maintenance of plants in Saudi Arabia and Taiwan, the import pressure will ease after February. On the demand side, weaving orders have weakened marginally, the load has declined rapidly, and the polyester load has declined slightly due to weakening profitability [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract yesterday was 3,847 yuan/ton, a change of +30 yuan/ton (+0.79%) from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 3,702 yuan/ton, a change of +19 yuan/ton (+0.52%) from the previous trading day. The spot basis of EG in East China was -139 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3 yuan/ton month-on-month [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$87/ton, a month-on-month change of +$0/ton. The production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -841 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of +16 yuan/ton [1] International Price Difference - No specific data provided Downstream Sales and Production and Operating Rate - Weaving orders have weakened marginally, the load has declined rapidly, and the polyester load has declined slightly due to weakening profitability [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 844,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 25,000 tons. According to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 645,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 28,000 tons. According to CCF data, the total planned arrivals at the main ports in East China last week were 106,000 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 25,000 tons. This week, the total planned arrivals at the main ports in East China are 106,000 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports are 43,000 tons. The overall situation is slightly on the high side, and it is expected that the main ports will have a slight inventory accumulation [1]

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 12 月 31 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周二尿素期货价格坚挺震荡，主力05合约收盘价1743元/吨，涨幅0.46%。现货市场 | 坚挺 震荡 | | | 多数稳定，个别地区价格略微波动。昨日山东、河南地区市场价格分别为1710元/ | | | | 吨、1690元/吨，日环比分别持平、下跌10元/吨。近期尿素装置故障较多，供应水 | | | | 平持续回落，昨日行业日产量19.45万吨，日环比回落0.02万吨。需求情绪跟随市场 | | | | 情绪回暖，昨日主流地区产销率提升至100%及以上水平，个别地区产销率 200% | | | | ，但也仍有个别地区成交偏弱。短期尿素供需变化幅度依旧有限，期货盘面则受到 | | | | 小作文消息扰动、相关品种走强带动 表现坚挺，但尿素自身暂时缺乏持续性上涨 | | | | 动能，且节前资金流动较大，建议观望为主，轻仓或 仓 节。节后市场关注点仍 | | | | 在于印标结果及我国出口政策变化，阶段性题材发酵仍有短期右侧交易机会 ...