2025 年 12 月 8 日 本周热点前瞻 2025-12-08 【本周重点关注】 12 月 8 日 11:00，海关总署将公布中国 11 月进出口数据。 12 月 10 日 09:30，国家统计局将公布 11 月 CPI 和 PPI。 12 月 10 日-17 日 16:00，中国人民银行将公布 11 月金融统计数据报告、11 月社会融资规模增量统计数据 报告、11 月社会融资规模存量统计数据报告。 12 月 11 日 03:00，美联储将公布利率决议和经济预期摘要。03:30，美联储主席鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。 预期，美联储将联邦基金利率下调 25 个基点。 重点关注国内宏观政策变化、国际地缘政治局势、美国总统特朗普和美联储官员讲话等因素对于期货市场的 影响。 【本周热点前瞻】 12月8日 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 12 月 08 日 PX：尾盘石脑油价格偏强维持，1 月 MOPJ 目前估价在 556 美元/吨 CFR。今天 PX 价格下跌，尾盘实 货 1 月在 836/839 商谈，2 月在 836/837 商谈。均无成交。今日 PX 估价在 838 美元/吨，较昨日下跌 7 美元。 据悉，中东一套 70 万吨 PX 装置按计划重启中，预计近期出产品，该装置 10 月下旬停车检修。 对二甲苯：成本支撑，高位震荡市 PTA：单边高位震荡市 MEG：价格创新低，趋势偏弱 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | | | | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6810 | 4678 | 3723 | 6210 | 453.7 | | 涨跌 | -96 | -46 | -103 | -58 | 1.1 | | 涨跌幅 | -1.39% | -0.97% | -2.69% | -0.93% | 0.2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "Bullish and volatile" for the electrolytic aluminum industry [3][10] Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Fed's December interest rate cut next week, the market may experience a slight correction. However, supported by factors such as the severe lack of global supply elasticity, the expectation of energy storage metal themes, historically low inventories, and a historically low aluminum - copper price ratio, the bullish pattern of aluminum prices is expected to continue [4][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Trading Strategies - Short - term: Due to increased volatility, it is advisable to hold a small long position. Last week's short - term long positions were advised to exit and wait and see, while medium - term long positions should continue to be held. This week, it is recommended to hold a sufficient inventory of spot goods. For spot enterprises, hedging is recommended [7] Overall View Aluminum Ore Market - The复产 process of suspended mines in Guinea is progressing steadily, and the shipping plans of new mines are going smoothly. The overall supply will increase steadily. This week, due to the deepening losses of alumina producers, hesitant procurement led to a decline in imported ore prices. However, all spot goods for sale in December have been sold, and the sea - floating spot market is tightening [8] Alumina Market - As of December 6, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 96.5 million tons (97.4 million tons last week), and a capacity utilization rate of about 86.2%. In 2026, new alumina production capacity of about 14.4 million tons/year is expected to be put into operation, mainly in the first half of the year and concentrated in the southwest and northern coastal areas. The alumina supply - demand contradiction remains severe due to high spot inventories and new production capacity coming online in the first quarter of next year [8] Production: Electrolytic Aluminum - In October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was about 45.7165 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 44.5593 million tons, and the aluminum water ratio was about 74%, a recent high. At the end of the year, domestic electrolytic aluminum smelting profits were substantial, and supply increased steadily. However, domestic supply is rigidly constrained, and electrolytic aluminum plants in Europe and the United States have frequently cut production due to high electricity prices. New projects in countries such as India and Indonesia have also progressed slowly due to power - matching issues, resulting in almost zero global aluminum supply elasticity [8] Import and Export - Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,700 yuan/ton (about 1,900 yuan/ton last week). In October, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was about 503,000 tons, a decline from September, and overall at the average level in recent years [8] Demand - **Aluminum Profiles**: This week, the domestic aluminum profile industry's operating rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 52% compared with last week, mainly affected by the decline in photovoltaic orders. The construction profile market remains sluggish, and the downstream component production of photovoltaic profiles has decreased. The automotive, energy storage, and other industrial profile sectors are operating relatively stably [9] - **Aluminum Sheets, Strips, and Foil**: This week, the operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 65.0%. The consumption off - season is deepening, and with environmental protection controls and the risk of rising aluminum prices, the order volume lacks strong support, and the industry's operating rate will continue to decline. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained stable at 61.5%. In the short term, leading enterprises are expected to maintain high production, but small and medium - sized production capacities may continue to shrink, and industry structural differentiation may continue [9] - **Aluminum Cables**: This week, the weekly operating rate of aluminum cables decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 62.4%. Domestic enterprises are restricted by the high - level oscillation of aluminum prices, weakening end - of - year inventory - building willingness, and non - significant order volume growth. It is expected that the operating rate of aluminum cables in December will continue to be weak [9] - **Alloys**: This week, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy remained stable at 60.2%. The market currently shows stable supply and slow demand. In a high - aluminum - price environment, downstream buyers are more rational. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained stable at 61.5%. In the short term, leading enterprises are expected to maintain high production, but small and medium - sized production capacities may continue to shrink, and industry structural differentiation may continue [9] Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum - The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 595,000 tons, remaining stable for two consecutive weeks, about 9% higher than the same period last year, and at a relatively low level in the mid - axis of inventory since 2023. The in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants is at a recent low, and the outbound volume has increased since mid - November. The aluminum rod inventory was 120,900 tons, a decrease of about 3% from last week and about 29% higher than the same period last year. The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly by about 2% from last week and about 23% from last year, still at a low level in recent years [9] Profit - **Alumina Profit**: In the past month, the average full cost of the domestic alumina industry was about 2,800 yuan/ton, the theoretical spot profit was about 30 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of the futures main contract was about - 250 yuan/ton [10] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profit**: Currently, the average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,050 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 4,900 yuan/ton (4,400 yuan/ton last week), with profits at a relatively high level [10] Market Expectation - The Shanghai aluminum futures will continue to trade at a high level next week, but the room for further upward movement is limited, and there is also a risk of correction. On one hand, the support from the cost side (such as coal and alumina) is weakening; on the other hand, there is a risk of "good news being exhausted" regarding the results of the Fed's interest - rate meeting, which the market is focusing on [10] Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of various aluminum - related products have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling. For example, the price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract increased by 3.40% week - on - week, while the price of动力煤 decreased by 4.01% week - on - week [11] Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of various aluminum - related products has also changed. For example, the port inventory of imported aluminum ore decreased by 0.57% week - on - week, while the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 7.20% week - on - week [13] Supply - Demand Situation - It is expected that the domestic supply - demand situation in 2025 will be tighter than in 2024. In the fourth quarter, the domestic aluminum consumption structure will show a differentiated pattern, with the automotive and power sectors being the main driving forces, photovoltaic running stably, and the real estate sector having a certain negative impact. Mysteel predicts that the apparent consumption in the fourth quarter will be about 11.813 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%, with the growth rate expanding compared with the third quarter [17] Domestic Alumina Monthly Balance Sheet - The alumina market has different levels of surplus or deficit in different months. For example, in January 2025, the surplus was 304,600 tons, while in April, there was a deficit of 110,300 tons [19] Domestic Aluminum Industry Important Link Profit Situation - In the past month, the domestic alumina industry's full cost was about 2,800 yuan/ton, the theoretical spot profit was about 30 yuan/ton, the futures main contract had a loss of about 250 yuan/ton, and the theoretical import profit was about 50 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum production cost was about 17,050 yuan/ton, the theoretical profit was about 4,900 yuan/ton, and the theoretical import loss was about 1,700 yuan/ton [21] Supply - Demand Situation - This week, the operating rate of leading domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 61.9%, and the market continued to show structural differentiation. With the deepening of the consumption off - season and the suppression of high aluminum prices, the operating rate is expected to remain weak [27] Futures - Spot Structure - The current Shanghai aluminum futures show a normal market structure with higher prices in the far - term and lower prices in the near - term, indicating that the market has a positive expectation for future aluminum prices but is relatively cautious about current high spot prices [31] Spread Structure - This week, the spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 was about - 1,730 yuan/ton, compared with - 2,040 yuan/ton before the holiday [38] Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The latest net long position of funds increased slightly, with both long and short camps increasing their positions slightly. Overall, overseas funds are still dominated by the long side [41] - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Electrolytic Aluminum**: In the past two weeks, the net long position first increased and then decreased, remaining stable overall. Since December, both long and short sides have increased their positions. The net long position of funds mainly for financial speculation has declined, but the camp differentiation is relatively obvious. The net long position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has increased slightly. Overall, the main funds seem to be relatively cautious about the recent price increase [44]

美国天然气期货跌超3.00%，现报4.101美元/百万英热[3]。 现货黄金突破4200美元/盎司，日内涨0.09%[1]；纽约期金突破4230美元/盎司，日内跌0.32%[2]。 二、能源与航运期货 三、宏观与市场影响 来源：喜娜AI 日本第三季度GDP折合年率-2.3%，预估为-2.0%[4]；美国财长贝森特表示，美国今年GDP增长率将达 3%[5]。 一、贵金属期货 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据库自动发布，任何在本文出现的信 息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成 个人投资建议。受限于第三方数据库质量等问题，我们无法对数据的真实性及完整性进行分辨或核验， 因此本文内容可能出现不准确、不完整、误导性的内容或信息，具体以公司公告为准。如有疑问，请联 系biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market spends 70% to 80% of its time in a sideways trend, and traders should adapt to this rather than avoid it to capture potential profits [1][3] - Liu Yang emphasizes that true trading experts must learn to coexist with sideways markets and find opportunities within them [3] - The "naked call option" strategy is critiqued as being akin to gambling, with a low success rate and high dependency on timing, making it unsuitable for most retail traders [4][5][6] Group 2 - Liu Yang suggests that a butterfly strategy is a better choice for ordinary traders in a sideways market, as it limits losses while allowing for potential high returns [8] - The double-sell strategy can generate stable income from time value in sideways markets, but it carries unlimited risk if the market breaks out [8] - The butterfly strategy embodies the principle of "risk first," which is crucial for traders to consider their survival before focusing on profits [9] Group 3 - Liu Yang discusses the "art" of strategy combinations, recommending multiple butterfly strategies with different strike prices to cover a wider range of market movements [11] - He advocates for using options instead of futures to manage the challenges of stop-loss execution [11] - The overall message is that traders should align their strategies with their personal capabilities, focusing on building a system that limits losses while allowing for potential gains [11]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 07 日 工业硅：新疆环保消息发酵，关注实际减产 多晶硅：预计下周盘面波动放大 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：工业硅盘面价格整体下行，现货价格下跌；多晶硅盘面重心回落，现货报价稳定 工业硅运行情况：本周工业硅盘面重心下移，更多跟随多晶硅期货走势，周五收于 8805 元/吨。现货 市场价格下跌，SMM 统计新疆 99 硅报价 8900 元/吨（环比不变），内蒙 99 硅报价 9050 元/吨(环比-50)。 多晶硅运行情况：本周多晶硅盘面重心回落，受交易所连续开会因素影响，市场炒作情绪消退，盘面重 心持续回落，周五盘面收于 55510 元/吨。多晶硅现货市场来看，上游报价坚挺，但下游价格已开始下跌。 供需基本面：工业硅本周行业库存累库；多晶硅上游库存继续累库 工业硅供给端，周度行业库存继续累库。据咨询商统计，本周西南地区及新疆地区开工减少，整体周产 环减。具体而言，西南地区 11 月起逐步减产，按照枯水期电价折算西南枯水期成本在 10000-10500 元/吨， 枯水期当地开工持续性 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 07 日 工业硅：新疆环保消息发酵，关注实际减产 多晶硅：重磅利空发酵，远月合约或跌停 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：工业硅盘面价格整体下行，现货价格下跌；多晶硅盘面重心回落，现货报价稳定 工业硅运行情况：本周工业硅盘面重心下移，更多跟随多晶硅期货走势，周五收于 8805 元/吨。现货 市场价格下跌，SMM 统计新疆 99 硅报价 8900 元/吨（环比不变），内蒙 99 硅报价 9050 元/吨(环比-50)。 多晶硅运行情况：本周多晶硅盘面重心回落，受交易所连续开会因素影响，市场炒作情绪消退，盘面重 心持续回落，周五盘面收于 55510 元/吨。多晶硅现货市场来看，上游报价坚挺，但下游价格已开始下跌。 供需基本面：工业硅本周行业库存累库；多晶硅上游库存继续累库 工业硅供给端，周度行业库存继续累库。据咨询商统计，本周西南地区及新疆地区开工减少，整体周产 环减。具体而言，西南地区 11 月起逐步减产，按照枯水期电价折算西南枯水期成本在 10000-10500 元/吨， 枯水期当地开 ...

截至2025年12月5日当周，对二甲苯期货主力合约收于6810元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周增持 30865手。 本周(12月1日-12月5日)市场上看，对二甲苯期货周内开盘报6814元/吨，最高触及6938元/吨，最低下探 至6808元/吨，周度涨跌幅达0.44%。 消息面回顾： 12月3日亚洲异构MX跌3美元至706美元/吨FOB韩国。亚洲PX跌2美元至827美元/吨FOB韩国和848美元/ 吨CFR中国。 机构观点汇总： 国投安信期货：PX新产能预期在明年下半年，上半年有检修导致的供应下滑，预期PX中期偏强。 西南期货：综上，短期PXN价差较为坚挺，PX开工持稳叠加进口缩减，现货流通性紧张，成本端原油 震荡拉锯，短期PX或震荡调整，注意控制仓位，警惕原油变动，关注宏观政策变化。 数据显示，12月4日对二甲苯(PX)现货价格报7000元/吨，较上一日上涨150元/吨，当日涨幅为2.19%。 最近一周，对二甲苯(PX)价格累计上涨200元/吨，上涨幅度为2.94%；最近一个月，对二甲苯(PX)价格 累计上涨300元/吨，上涨幅度为4.48%。 本周PX产量为75.26万吨，环比上周+0.6%。国内PX周 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周五（12月5日）纽约尾盘，COMEX铜期货涨1.47%，报5.4525美元/磅，本周累涨 3.37%。现货铂金跌0.09%，报1644.59美元/盎司，本周累跌1.58%；现货钯金涨0.41%，报1461.26美元/ 盎司，本周累涨0.79%。 ...

每经AI快讯，12月6日，上期所原油期货夜盘收涨0.82%，报457.1元/桶。沪金主力合约收涨0.15%，报 959元/克，沪银主力合约收涨2.67%，报13788元/千克。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...