【基本面跟踪】 | | 短纤2507 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | PF07-08 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | ୧୧38 | ୧୧୨୧ | -58 | | 124 | 132 | -8 | | PF | 短纤2508 | 6514 | 6564 | -50 | PF08-09 | 116 | 62 | 54 | | | 短纤2509 | 6398 | 6502 | -104 | PF基差 | 196 | 166 | 30 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 274949 | 278208 | -3259 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 710 | 6. 730 | -20 | | | 短纤成交量 | 196980 | 182889 | 14091 | 短纤产销率 | 46% | 42% | 4% | | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | 瓶片2507 | 5958 | 5968 | -10 | PR07-08 | 40 | 22 | 18 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is in a short - term weak and volatile market. With multiple device overhauls postponed, supply is expected to rise again in July. Overseas device restarts also increase the operating rate. PXN is under pressure, and it is recommended to short PXN on rallies [8]. - PTA shows a positive basis spread arbitrage, a reverse calendar spread arbitrage, and a weak and volatile unilateral trend. The long - PX short - PTA position should be stopped for profit. Demand is weak in July, and PTA will start to accumulate inventory from late July [8]. - MEG has a positive basis and calendar spread arbitrage. The unilateral valuation is not recommended to short. Although the 09 contract is relatively weak, the downside space of the 9 - 1 spread is limited. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 9 - 1 spread and go long on dips for the unilateral position [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: A 390,000 - ton PX device in North China postponed its overhaul to late July for two months. A 9 - million - ton PX device in East China reduced its load in July and canceled the original overhaul plan. Some overseas devices restarted. By the end of the week, the domestic PX operating rate dropped to 81%, and the Asian total operating rate rose to 74.1%. Asian PX prices continued to decline on July 4 due to weak downstream demand [4]. - Polyester: A 600,000 - ton polyester device in Huzhou is under overhaul, and the restart time is undetermined [7]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1, indicating a weak outlook. - PTA trend intensity: - 1, indicating a weak outlook. - MEG trend intensity: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7]. Views and Suggestions - PX: With multiple device overhauls postponed, it is a short - term weak and volatile market. Pay attention to the compression position of the far - month PXN. It is recommended to short PXN on rallies [8]. - PTA: Conduct positive basis spread arbitrage and reverse calendar spread arbitrage. The unilateral trend is weak and volatile. Stop the profit of the long - PX short - PTA position. Pay attention to the crude oil trend [8]. - MEG: Conduct positive basis and calendar spread arbitrage. Do not short the unilateral valuation. Go long on dips for the 9 - 1 spread and the unilateral position [9].

| | | | Million | 国投前货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月04日 | | 棉花, | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ななな | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，棉花现货交投大多冷清：基差总体持稳，纯棉纱成交依旧偏清淡，下游需求仍旧不足，市场交投不佳,纯 棉纱纺企库存继续累积，诚停产增多。截至6月15号，棉花商业库存为312.69万吨，较5月底减少33.18万吨，消化仍然良好，棉 花库存仍存偏紧预期。宏观上，美国和越南达成贸易协议，美国将对进口越南商品 ...

2025 年 7 月 4 日 商 品 研 究 黄金：非农表现超预期 白银：继续冲高 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2508 | 778.92 | 0.67% | 775.68 | -0.40% | | | 黄金T+D | 775.81 | 0.71% | 771.12 | -0.50% | | | Comex黄金2508 | 3336.00 | -0.97% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | 沪银2508 | 8944 | 2.24% | 8926.00 | 0.67% | | 价 格 | 白银T+D | 8929 | 2.18% ...

2025年07月04日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | 基本面：美国大漂亮法案在众议院通过，美国非农数据超预期，降息预期延迟。国内周度库存增加 0.57 万吨， | | | 铜 | 华东华南平水铜升水 80 元和 30 元。伦敦结构 109 美金 back。 | | | | 交易策略：突破 1 万美金后或有震荡整理，但上行方向不变。 | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2508 合约收盘价较前一交易日+1.41%，收于 20580 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 330 元/吨， | | | | | LME 价格 2608.5 美元/吨。 | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅上升。需求方面，铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | 铝 | 交易策略：宏观环境呈现利好。但沪铝基本面面临需求走弱及成本支撑趋弱的双重压力，存在潜在下行风险， | | | | 建议谨慎看多。 | | | | 风险提示：海内外宏 ...

2025年07月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：供需紧平衡，逢低正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：多PX空PTA | 2 | | MEG：单边震荡市 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：震荡运行格局延续 | 6 | | 沥青：暂时震荡，关注地缘 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期偏强震荡 | 10 | | PP：现货震荡，成交平淡 | 12 | | 烧碱：关注液氯的影响 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素：窄幅震荡 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 24 | | LPG：短期震荡运行 | 25 | | PVC：短期偏强，后期仍有压力 | 28 | | 燃料油：短期弱势调整为主，盘面波动低位 | 30 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘偏强，外盘现货高低硫价差继续上行 | 30 | | 集运指数（欧线）：08震荡整理；10空单轻仓持有 | 31 | | 短纤：短期震荡 | 35 | | 瓶片：短期 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Supply and demand are in tight balance, recommend going long on the near - month contract and short on the far - month contract [1] - PTA: Go long on PX and short on PTA [1] - MEG: Sideways market for single - sided trading [1] 2. Core Views - PX: Only the Fuhua plant reduced its load this week. Attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans for plants such as Zhejiang Petrochemical. PTA plant production cuts impact PX demand. Near - month PX supply and demand remain tight, and floating prices are high. Focus on positions for compressing far - month PXN [6] - PTA: Yisheng Hainan unexpectedly reduced its load this week, and the operating rate dropped to 77.7%. Polyester operating rate decreased to 90.6%, and overall PTA supply and demand are balanced. The basis is expected to be slightly strong, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure from late July to August, and the overall trend is expected to be weak. Short the processing fee on rallies [6] - MEG: It is in a sideways market. This week, the port arrival volume increased significantly, and port inventory increased by 60,000 tons month - on - month, which is negative for the month - spread. However, there have been many changes in Saudi Arabian plants, and the Yanbu plant's 1.1 million - ton ethylene glycol production was reduced by 70% due to an accident. Pay attention to the possible decline in Saudi Arabian imports in August [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: Naphtha prices remained strong at the end of the session. On the 3rd, PX prices fell. Three August Asian spot transactions were at $861, $859, and $858 respectively, and two September Asian spot transactions were both at $844. The PX valuation on the 3rd was $849/ton, a $5 decrease from the 2nd [3] - PTA: In the Chinese mainland, Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 - million - ton plant increased its load, Hengli's 2.2 - million - ton plant restarted, Weilian Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton plant shut down, and Yisheng Hainan and Yisheng Dalian's PTA plants reduced their loads. By Thursday, the PTA operating rate dropped to 77.7%. According to another calculation method, the current PTA operating rate is around 83.6% [3] - MEG: As of July 3rd, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 66.51% (a 0.76% month - on - month decrease), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) was 69.34% (a 2.15% month - on - month decrease) [3] - Polyester: Recently, some plants have arranged maintenance one after another, but the loads of other plants have also been adjusted locally. Overall, the polyester load is slightly declining in a volatile manner. As of Thursday, the preliminary calculation of the polyester load in the Chinese mainland is around 90.6%. The operating load of large - scale polyester industrial yarn manufacturers has basically remained stable, and as of Thursday, the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn is around 73%. On the 3rd, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an average sales rate estimated at 40% - 50% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average sales rate of 42% by 3:00 pm [5] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 [6] - PTA trend intensity: 1 [6] - MEG trend intensity: 1 [6] Futures and Spot Data | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6740 | 4746 | 4288 | 6564 | 506.3 | | Change | 6790 | - 48 | - 11 | - 58 | 8.1 | | Change Rate | - 0.74% | - 1.00% | - 0.26% | - 0.88% | 1.63% | | Month - spread | PX9 - 1 | PTA9 - 1 | MEG9 - 1 | PF8 - 9 | SC8 - 9 | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 130 | 84 | - 36 | 120 | 5.7 | | Previous Day's Closing Price | 144 | 114 | - 33 | 120 | 5.5 | | Change | - 14 | - 30 | - 3 | 0 | 0.2 | | Spot | PX CFR China ($/ton) | PTA East China (Yuan/ton) | MEG Spot | Naphtha MOPJ | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | | Yesterday's Price | 849.67 | 4872 | 4361 | 577.38 | 71.14 | | Previous Day's Price | 854 | 4920 | 4360 | 572.25 | 69.85 | | Change | - 4.33 | - 48 | 1 | 5.12 | 1.29 | | Spot Processing Fee | PX - Naphtha Spread | PTA Processing Fee | Short - fiber Processing Fee | Bottle - chip Processing Fee | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | | Yesterday's Price | 296.92 | 338.19 | 152.72 | - 559.28 | - 7.42 | | Previous Day's Price | 282.75 | 420.68 | 195.94 | - 574.07 | - 7.42 | | Change | 14.17 | - 82.49 | - 43.22 | 14.78 | 0 | [2]

2025 年 07 月 04 日 铝：震荡运行 氧化铝：关注检修复产情况 铸造铝合金：下方有支撑 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20680 | 45 | 235 | 525 | -290 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20650 | ー | ー | ー | - | LME铝3M收盘价 | -9 | 21 | -100 | 2606 | 140 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | -32049 | 114240 | -38170 | -13972 | -31124 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 281092 | -2637 | 20543 | 75009 | 21376 | 电解铝 | | LME铝3M成交量 | 19089 | -4436 | 1800 | 1825 | 2467 | LME注销仓单占比 | 2. 30% | -0. 11% | -1. 87% | -13. 78% ...

| | | | 国投期货 Millio | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月03日 | | 棉花, | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★★★ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 20号胶 | 女女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，棉花现货交投大多冷清：基差总体持稳，纯棉纱成交依旧偏清淡，下游需求仍旧不足，市场交投不佳,纯 棉纱纺企库存继续累积，诚停产增多。截至6月15号，棉花商业库存为312.69万吨，较5月底减少33.18万吨，消化仍然良好，棉 花库存仍存偏紧预期。宏观上，美国和越南达成贸易协议，美国将对进口越南商品征收20% ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.07.03） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铜 日内观点：79500-81000 中期观点：60000-90000 参考策略：震荡偏强操作思路，买入看涨期权策略择机止盈 核心逻辑： 1、宏观方面，美联储官员表示，关税将提升通胀，但没必要因此而加息，年 内大概率有一次降息。 2、供给方面，智利国家统计局数据显示，智利5月铜产量为486574吨，环比增 加4.9%，为年内最高水平，且较上年同期增加9.4%。MMG和Hudbay Minerals旗下的 秘鲁矿山正在遭受手工采矿者-非正规矿工的封锁道路，扰乱矿山的物流运输，MMG旗 下Las Bambas(2025年预计年铜产量38万金属吨)和Hudbay旗下Constancia(2025年预 计年铜产量8-9.7万金属吨)铜矿运输中断。 3、需求方面，现货市场方面，上海、广东地区下游的消费需求受到铜价上涨 所抑制，市场新增订单难有增加，企业逢低刚需补库。华北地区部分现货商下调报价 出货，市场整体成交冷清。重庆地区铜厂采购情绪仍受淡季弱需求所主导。 4、库存方面，7月2日，上期所铜仓单增加324吨至25097吨。 ...