瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.27」 菜籽类市场周报 国际油价大幅下挫 菜油期价明显走弱 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 菜油： Ø 策略建议：短线参与为主。 3 Ø 行情回顾：本周菜油期货震荡下跌，09合约收盘价9466元/吨，较前一周-260元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：短期市场仍聚焦于加菜籽旧作库存偏紧的现实，且现阶段加菜籽生长进入"天气主导" 阶段。关注后期天气状况以及加拿大统计局6月27日公布的油籽种植面积报告。其它方面，棕榈油 产地步入季节性增产季，产出压力继续牵制其市场价格。不过，出口继续增加对棕榈油市场有所 提振。近期中东局势对国际油价影响较大，使得油脂波动也同步增加。国内方面，油厂库存压力 持续偏高，继续牵制市场价格。且中加贸易关系缓和的预期增强，增添后期供应压力。不过，加 菜籽价格相对坚挺，成本传导下，给国内菜油市场价 ...

2025 年 06 月 27 日 铅：偏强运行 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17225 | 0.20% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2031.5 | 0.97% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 52643 | -3709 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 8483 | -305 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 51182 | 2838 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 151844 | -1129 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -35 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -22 | 1.5 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -35 | -10 | 进口升贴水（美 | 105 | 0 | | ...

| | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 流跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2509 | 819.5 | 15 | 1. 86% | | 期货价格 | | J2509 | 1395.5 | 8 | 0. 58% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 870999 | 564662 | 40404 | | | | J2509 | 22795 | 51299 | 24 | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) 0 | | | 焦煤 | 山西仓单成本 | 894 | 894 | 0 | | | | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 1170 8୧8 | 1170 8୧8 | 0 | | | | 吕梁低疏主焦 | 1113 | 1113 | 0 | | | | 峰景折人民币 | 1519 | 1522 | -3 | | 现货价格 | 焦煤仓单 | | | | | | | | 蒙5#仓单成本 | 843 | 838 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for specific derivatives: - Stock index futures: The outlook is "oscillating, slightly bullish" [7]. - Stock index options: The outlook is "oscillating" [8]. - Treasury bond futures: The outlook is "oscillating" [8][10]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Stock index futures are in a period of sentiment adjustment, with the market showing signs of weakness after consecutive rises this week, entering a short - term observation period, and it is recommended to continue holding IM long positions [7]. - Stock index options are experiencing a temporary lull in sentiment, and it is advisable to take profits opportunistically. If the market remains oscillating, consider switching to a covered call strategy [2][8]. - Treasury bond futures' sentiment has stabilized to some extent. After recent adjustments, factors such as central bank net injections, non - excessive policy surprises, and potential market speculation on PMI data and central bank bond - buying have contributed. However, caution should still be maintained, and attention should be paid to June PMI data and central bank operations [3][8][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the market first rose and then fell. The Wind All - A Index slightly declined by 0.28%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 100 Index fell nearly 2%. Sectors such as banking and telecommunications rose against the trend, while the sentiment in the non - banking financial sector declined. - The open interest of stock index futures ended three consecutive days of increases, indicating profit - taking by funds. The narrowing of the futures discount may be due to some neutral strategy funds shifting from far - month to near - month hedging, with limited significance for trend prediction. - The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts and the spread between current and next - month contracts changed. The total open interest decreased. - It is recommended to hold IM long positions [7]. Stock Index Options - Yesterday, the underlying market declined across the board. The CSI 1000 initially performed well in the morning but weakened in the afternoon, closing down 0.45%. - The trading volume of the options market was 5.095 billion yuan, a 31.92% decrease from the previous trading day. The main trading drivers may be profit - taking and the re - entry of sellers. - The continuous increase in the intraday trading volume ratio of call options was interrupted, and the over - heated sentiment cooled. The put - call ratio of open interest in stock index options did not decline significantly, and the sellers were still relatively optimistic, but the decline from the high level was not a good sign historically. - The volatility of each option variety declined after a sharp increase the previous day, returning to the end - of - May level, with room for further decline compared to the beginning of the week. - It is recommended to take profits on directional strategies and switch to a covered call strategy if the market remains oscillating [2][8]. Treasury Bond Futures - Yesterday, treasury bond futures showed mixed performance. The T main contract initially rose but then declined, ultimately closing down 0.02%, while the TL main contract rose 0.10%, and the TF and TS main contracts were basically flat. - The central bank conducted 509.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 203.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 305.8 billion yuan. The inter - bank liquidity eased, and the DR007 rate slightly declined. - The National Development and Reform Commission's press conference did not bring excessive policy surprises, and the stock - bond seesaw effect that had suppressed the bond market in recent days may have weakened. - As the end of the month approaches, the market may be speculating on June PMI data and the central bank's bond - buying restart. - For trading strategies, the trend strategy is to expect oscillation; for hedging, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels; for basis strategies, pay attention to basis widening; for yield curve strategies, it is more profitable to steepen the curve in the medium term [3][8][10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The report provides economic data for the week, including PMI data from the eurozone and the US, the German IFO business climate index, US consumer confidence indices, and US initial and continuing jobless claims [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - Hong Kong Dollar: On June 26, the Hong Kong dollar triggered the "weak - side convertibility undertaking" of the linked exchange rate system. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority sold US dollars and bought 9.42 billion Hong Kong dollars, and the aggregate balance of the banking system will decrease to 164.1 billion Hong Kong dollars on June 27. Multiple factors led to this situation, which is part of the normal operation of the linked exchange rate system [12]. - China Macro: The National Development and Reform Commission will issue the third batch of consumer goods trade - in funds in July and will formulate a monthly and weekly plan for the use of national subsidy funds to ensure the orderly implementation of the consumer goods trade - in policy throughout the year [12]. - Digital Assets: The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government issued the "Hong Kong Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0" on June 26, aiming to make Hong Kong a global innovation center in the digital asset field. The new policy builds on the 2022 declaration, promoting the practical application of tokenization, diversifying application scenarios, and constructing a more vibrant digital asset ecosystem [13][14]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report separately lists sections for stock index futures data, stock index options data, and treasury bond futures data, but specific data content is not fully presented in the provided text [15][19][31].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 6 月 27 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 基本面淡季弱势，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 观点参考 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 | | 获 取 | 每 日 | 期 货 观 点 | 推 送 | | | --- | --- | - ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年6月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14938，基差1293（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：中国农业部25/26年度6月预计期末库存823万吨；偏空。 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方，偏多。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空增，主力趋势偏空；偏空。 6：预期：美棉小幅反弹，国内郑棉创出近期反弹新高。近期金融市场总体开始转向乐观， 中美贸易争端暂时搁置。郑棉重心缓慢上移，09主力上方关注13800-14000附近压力。 利多：前期中美互加关税减少，未来90天迎来外贸出口 抢单期。期货价格接近 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 26 日 鸡蛋：逐步布局远月空单 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2507 | 2,848 | 0.53 | -1,238 | -3,943 | | | 鸡蛋2509 | 3,658 | 0.61 | 3,395 | 4,215 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋7-8价差 | | -713 | | -732 | | | 鸡蛋7-9价差 | | -810 | | -823 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 2.90 | | 3.00 | | | 河北现货价格 | | 2.56 | | 2.58 | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 2.90 | | 3.00 | | | 湖北现货价格 | | 3.04 | | 3.09 | | | | | ...

低硫燃料油：相对高硫偏强，外盘现货高低硫 价差来到阶段性高位 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2508 | 元/吨 | 2.999 | -2. 88% | | 3,011 | -6.64% | | | | FU2509 | 元/吨 | 3.015 | -6. 64% | | 3.020 | -5.80% | | | | LU2508 | 元/吨 | 3.716 | 0. 65% | | 3.686 | -3.63% | | | | LU2509 | 元/吨 | 3.639 | -3.63% | | 3.623 | -3.54% | | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日特仓 | 持仓变动 | | | | FU2508 | ने | 12.598 | (2.541) | | 9.6 ...

2025年06月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限，反套表达 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：巴西将开始B15，利好国际豆油 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆继续收跌，连粕偏弱运行 | 4 | | 豆一：豆类市场氛围偏空，盘面调整震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡调整 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 8 | | 棉花：震荡偏强 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：逐步布局远月空单 | 11 | | 生猪：震荡调整 | 12 | | 花生：下方有支撑 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 26 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限，反套表达 豆油：巴西将开始 B15，利好国际豆油 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,34 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the challenges and opportunities in the cotton market, particularly after a rebound that led to a period of volatility [2] - The article emphasizes the importance of using advanced monitoring tools, referred to as "盯盘神器," to identify trading opportunities during market fluctuations [2] - It highlights the need for investors to adapt their strategies in response to the changing dynamics of the cotton market [2] Group 2 - The cotton market experienced a rebound followed by a phase of consolidation, indicating potential trading opportunities for savvy investors [2] - The article suggests that effective monitoring tools can help traders capture price movements and make informed decisions during periods of uncertainty [2] - It points out that understanding market trends and utilizing technology can enhance trading performance in the cotton sector [2]