Group 1: Report Overview - The report is about the hog market on August 14, 2025, indicating that the spot market is mainly weak [1] Group 2: Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 13,930 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 50; Sichuan's is 13,550 yuan/ton with a 200 increase; Guangdong's is 15,290 yuan/ton with no change [3] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of hog2509, hog2511, and hog2601 are 13,950 yuan/ton, 14,045 yuan/ton, and 14,295 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 15, - 185, and - 130 [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For hog2509, the trading volume is 9,835 lots (up 3,466 from the previous day) and the open interest is 18,627 lots (down 3,281 from the previous day); for hog2511, the trading volume is 47,508 lots (up 20,637) and the open interest is 66,230 lots (up 5,348); for hog2601, the trading volume is 18,115 lots (up 8,296) and the open interest is 45,776 lots (up 941) [3] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of hog2509, hog2511, and hog2601 are - 20 yuan/ton, - 115 yuan/ton, and - 365 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of 65, 235, and 180; the hog 9 - 11 spread is - 95 yuan/ton (up 170 year - on - year), and the hog 11 - 1 spread is - 250 yuan/ton (down 55 year - on - year) [3] Group 3: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish view, with the range of [-2, 2] for trend intensity and different levels of strength classification [4] Group 4: Market Logic - In August, the planned slaughter volume of group farms increases, while individual farmers are forced to hold back hogs. Demand growth is limited, leading to large market pressure. Recent daily transactions are poor, and it's difficult to absorb market supply [5] - The September contract is entering the pre - delivery month, and on the tenth trading day, it enters the second phase of position limits. The futures price is still at a significant premium to the warehouse receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver. Attention should be paid to the market of premium convergence [5] - Recently, the macro sentiment has strong support for the far - end contracts, resulting in a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations. The spread structure maintains a reverse arbitrage, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, supply and demand are both increasing with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to move in a range [1]. - For the zinc market, macro "anti - involution" sentiment fluctuates. Fundamentally, both zinc ore and zinc ingot supplies are increasing, demand is in the off - season, inventories are accumulating, and the continuous decline of LME zinc inventories overseas provides some support. Short - term zinc prices are expected to move in a range [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Market Price and Market Indicators - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,750 yuan/ton, down 0.15% [1]. - Futures main contract closing price was 16,930 yuan/ton, up 0.09% [1]. - Shanghai lead basis was - 180 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [1]. - LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 1,988 dollars/ton, down 1.39% [1]. - Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.52, up 1.50% [1]. Supply - related Information - The "Limit Specification for Harmful Elements in Heavy Non - ferrous Metal Concentrate Products" will be implemented on September 1, 2025, mainly restricting the entry of imported lead concentrates with excessive harmful elements, but currently having no obvious impact on supply [1]. - Some lead smelting enterprises in Henan may face vehicle transportation restrictions during August 26 - September 3 due to environmental protection emergency control [1]. - South American mining company Nexa Resources' Cerro Pasco complex partially shut down temporarily, but it has not had a substantial impact on production [1]. Market Fundamentals - Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, processing fees are likely to rise, but it has not affected smelter operations significantly. Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase [1]. - For recycled lead, waste lead - acid battery prices are likely to rise, raw materials are in short supply, some smelters cut or stop production, and the overall production is at a relatively low level [1]. Demand - side Situation - Some battery enterprises' operations declined last week due to high temperatures and poor demand, and downstream purchasing was cautious after the lead price rebounded [1]. Zinc Market Price and Market Indicators - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,490 yuan/ton, up 0.27% [1]. - Futures main contract closing price was 22,600 yuan/ton, down 0.13% [1]. - Shanghai zinc basis was - 110 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [1]. - LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,811.5 dollars/ton, down 1.28% [1]. - Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.04, up 1.16% [1]. Supply - related Information - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, and production is expected to increase [1]. Market Fundamentals - The cost - side support for zinc is weakening, smelter profits and production enthusiasm are improving, and the output is increasing significantly [1]. Demand - side Situation - Downstream zinc buyers purchased more when the price was low last week, and the restocking sentiment weakened after the price rebounded [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis and forecast of various futures markets, including stock index futures, bond futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, energy futures, and agricultural futures. Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, it predicts the price trends of different futures contracts on August 13, 2025, and also presents the market conditions on August 12, 2025. Additionally, it includes relevant macro - economic news and policies that may impact the futures markets [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation on August 13, 2025. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4173 and 4200 points, and support levels at 4131 and 4113 points [2][19]. - **Bond Futures**: Ten - year and thirty - year bond futures are likely to be in a weak - biased oscillation on August 13, 2025. T2509 will test support levels at 108.30 and 108.21 yuan, and resistance levels at 108.47 and 108.52 yuan; TL2509 will test support levels at 117.8 and 117.6 yuan, and resistance levels at 118.3 and 118.5 yuan [2][33][35]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures (AU2510) are likely to be in a consolidation phase on August 13, 2025, with support levels at 773.8 and 768.6 yuan/g, and resistance levels at 779.5 and 781.8 yuan/g. Silver futures (AG2510) are expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation, with resistance levels at 9239 and 9281 yuan/kg, and support levels at 9130 and 9100 yuan/kg [2][38][43]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. are likely to be in a strong - biased oscillation on August 13, 2025. For example, CU2509 will attack resistance levels at 79700 and 80100 yuan/ton, with support levels at 79100 and 78800 yuan/ton [2][3][46]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil futures (SC2509) are likely to be in a weak - biased oscillation on August 13, 2025, testing support levels at 488 and 485 yuan/barrel, and resistance levels at 495 and 498 yuan/barrel [2][93]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and palm oil futures are likely to be in a strong - biased oscillation on August 13, 2025. For example, OI601 will attack resistance levels at 10253 and 10350 yuan/ton, with support levels at 10000 and 9916 yuan/ton [2][6][106]. 2. Macro - economic News and Policies - **Tariff Policy**: China and the US have agreed to suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days, while retaining the remaining 10% tariffs [8]. - **Loan Subsidy Policies**: The Ministry of Finance and other departments have issued subsidy policies for personal consumption loans and service - industry business loans [8][9]. - **US - Russia Summit**: US President Trump and Russian President Putin will hold a one - on - one meeting in Anchorage, Alaska, on August 15, 2025 [9]. - **US CPI Data**: In July 2025, the US CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year [9]. 3. Market Conditions on August 12, 2025 - **Domestic Futures**: Most domestic commodity futures closed higher. Coking coal rose nearly 7%, and soda ash rose over 5%. However, rapeseed meal fell 3% [12]. - **International Markets**: COMEX gold futures fell 0.17%, and international crude oil futures declined. Some international agricultural products, such as ICE raw sugar futures, rose, while some, like CBOT corn futures, fell [12][13]. - **Stock Markets**: A - shares and US stocks closed higher, while European stocks showed mixed performance [16][17][18].

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: August 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - Ferrous Metals Research Team, including Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin [3] Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai aluminum market opened lower and closed higher. The main contract 2509 closed at 20,735, up 0.29%. The 08 - 09 premium remained unchanged from the previous day. The spot market strengthened, supported by the change in the monthly spread structure. The spot premium slightly recovered. The cast - aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly following Shanghai aluminum, and the AD - AL negative spread was - 520. The supply - demand pattern of scrap aluminum remained weak, and the cast - aluminum alloy continued to operate within a range [7]. - Alumina rose more than 4% due to news, but the fundamentals remained unchanged with a relatively oversupplied situation. It could be short - sold when it rebounded to near the previous high. For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity remained high, the off - season was in the second half, and the inventory continued to accumulate seasonally. The smelting enterprises had rich profits. The market was supported by the loose dollar and domestic policy expectations, but the off - season effect and high prices still inhibited terminal consumption. It was advisable to wait for high - level short - selling opportunities [7]. Market Conditions and Operation Suggestions - **Aluminum Market**: The main contract 2509 of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,735, up 0.29%. The 08 - 09 premium was 20. The spot market strengthened, with the spot premium in East China at - 30, in Central China at - 130, and in South China at - 55. The cast - aluminum alloy followed Shanghai aluminum to fluctuate strongly, and the AD - AL negative spread was - 520. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the supply - demand pattern of the cast - aluminum alloy remained weak [7]. - **Alumina Market**: Alumina rose more than 4% due to news, but the supply was relatively oversupplied. It could be short - sold when it rebounded to near the previous high [7]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Market**: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained high. The off - season was in the second half, and the inventory continued to accumulate seasonally. The smelting enterprises had rich profits. The market was supported by the loose dollar and domestic policy expectations, but the off - season effect and high prices still inhibited terminal consumption. It was advisable to wait for high - level short - selling opportunities [7] Industry News - **Policy Adjustment**: On August 10, the Shanxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources adjusted the registration authority for the transfer of some mineral types, including ceramic soil, refractory clay, kaolin, and iron alumina, to strengthen the protection of bauxite and other strategic mineral resources [8][10]. - **Overseas Bauxite Mine Rights Change**: On August 4, the Guinean government established Nimba Mining Company SA (NMC) to take over the mining rights of EGA - GAC. The previous 690.20 - square - kilometer mining area of GAC was granted to NMC for 25 years. EGA's mine in Guinea with an annual capacity of 14 million tons stopped production in December last year and had its mining license revoked in May this year [10]. - **Mining Rights Change**: The mining rights of the Dataoyuan Bauxite Mine in Shanzhou District, Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd. were changed, with a validity period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030, with a designed production scale of 500,000 tons/year [10]. - **Investment Project**: Rio Tinto approved an investment of $180 million to start the Norman Creek Bauxite Project in Queensland. The project is crucial for the long - term business of Weipa, and the Norman Creek area holds nearly half of the proven reserves (978 million tons) of the Amrun Mine. The construction is planned to be completed in 2028 [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import and Export Data**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 206.6%. In June 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [10]

Group 1 - The private equity investment sector is witnessing a new trend with notable firms like Waying Investment, Shanhai Fund, and Shenhan Capital venturing into short drama production, specifically a financial-themed short drama titled "Rebirth in the Millennium: My Revenge Path through Futures" [1] - The plot of the drama revolves around a billionaire private equity mogul who faces a life-altering event in 2025 due to significant market fluctuations caused by Trump's tariff announcement, leading to a financial collapse and personal tragedy, followed by a time-travel twist back to the year 2000 [1] - Waying Investment has three products with performance displays, including the quantitative CTA product "Waying Heshun Hedging No. 1," which ranks highly among its peers, although specific return data is anonymized due to regulatory requirements [1] Group 2 - The volatility and uncertainty of the futures market deter many investors, yet some private equity firms have achieved notable success in this area [2] - In the current year, Feng Shengli from Fuhua Zixin Private Equity has excelled with the subjective CTA product "Fuhua Tunquan Jinqi," showcasing his extensive investment experience and asset management skills [2] - In the quantitative CTA category, Shuanglong Investment's "Shuanglong-Longyun No. 1" has also performed exceptionally well, ranking among the top products [2] Group 3 - A list of top-performing private equity products in the current year includes "Fuhua Tunquan Jinqi" by Fuhua Zixin, "Jingsheng Tunquan Private Enjoyment" by Jingsheng Investment, and "Ruiti Futures Miracle No. 1" by Ruirui, all of which are in the subjective CTA category [3] - In the top private equity segment, "Xinhong CTA No. 1 Quantitative A Class" managed by Zhang Yi has attracted significant investor interest due to its outstanding performance [3] Group 4 - Over the past year and three years, several private equity firms and products have emerged as top performers, including Hu Qing from Xuming Investment and Xie Dong from Luoshu Investment, who have excelled in the futures market with their subjective and quantitative CTA strategies [4] - Their success is attributed to a deep understanding of the market and a stable investment style [4] Group 5 - The performance data for the past year highlights "Xuming Jingjian B Class" by Xuming Investment and "Fuhua Tunquan Jinqi" by Fuhua Zixin as leading products in the subjective CTA category [5] - Other notable products include "Jingsheng Tunquan Private Enjoyment" and "Daiying Jincheng A Class" from various private equity firms, showcasing a diverse range of strategies and performances [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is weak. With smooth downstream procurement, normal slaughter by farmers, and the impact of local epidemics, the market is continuously suppressed. The current supply - demand situation is weak. In August, the slaughter of large - scale farms is expected to resume, and there is also a need to slaughter large pigs previously held back by small farmers. Short - term pig prices are not optimistic. The spot price is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern, and the near - month 09 contract faces strong upward pressure. The far - month 01 contract is greatly affected by policies. It is not recommended to blindly short, but in the case of good hedging profits on the futures market, the impact of hedging funds also needs attention [2]. 粕类Industry - Trump's hope for China to significantly increase the import of US soybeans has improved the export expectation of US soybeans, leading to a sharp rise in US soybean prices. The continuous increase in Brazilian soybean premiums has supported domestic import costs, but the improved expectation of US soybean imports may suppress price increases. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are continuously rising, and short - term supply maintains a high arrival volume and high operating rate, suppressing spot prices. In operation, the support from US soybeans is strengthening, so the downward space for domestic soybean meal on a single - side basis is relatively limited. However, if domestic supply increases, it may affect the trend of the 2601 contract on the futures market. Considering the strength of oils, long positions held previously should be held with caution [7]. Oil Industry No core view summary other than data changes provided. Corn Industry - The current channel inventory is relatively tight, and some traders have a certain willingness to support prices. The number of incoming vehicles remains at a low level. However, affected by weak market sentiment and the pressure of new grain listing in some areas, the spot price is running weakly with stability. On the demand side, deep - processing and feed enterprises mainly have rigid demand, and inventory is continuously consumed, with no obvious boost in consumption and general procurement enthusiasm. In the substitution aspect, wheat is strongly supported by the purchase - protection policy price. The price relationship between corn and wheat is within the substitution range, squeezing the demand for corn. In the short term, the tight remaining grain situation supports prices, but the weak market sentiment remains unchanged, and the futures market maintains a low - level oscillation. In the long term, the cost of new - season corn is decreasing, and the output may increase steadily. The supply pressure is still significant, and the valuation of the futures market may decline. Attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [17]. Sugar Industry - ISMA predicts that India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season will be 34.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18%. Affected by strong production signs, the raw sugar price has slightly declined. However, it is worth noting that although Brazil's sugarcane crushing is approaching its peak, the high proportion of sugar production has not led to a year - on - year increase in cumulative sugar production. The full - blown expectations of bumper harvests in India and Thailand require attention to the later weather trends. It is expected that it is difficult for the raw sugar price to break through the previous low in the short term, but considering the increasing production pattern, an overall bearish approach should be taken. With the increase in imports, processed sugar is gradually entering the market, and the price quotes are loosening, putting pressure on prices. Terminal market demand is average, and procurement is mainly on a need - to - use basis, with weak inventory - building willingness. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will maintain a bearish trend [22]. Cotton Industry - On the supply side, the spot basis is temporarily firm. There has been a marginal improvement in the industrial downstream this week, but the amplitude is not large. There has been a slight increase in local sample orders at the grey fabric end. After the cotton price stabilizes, the shipment of cotton yarn has also slightly improved. The finished product inventory has stopped accumulating, and the operating rate has temporarily stabilized. There is temporary support for the cotton price, but the overall confidence in the downstream is still insufficient, and the expectations are not strong. As the new cotton listing period is approaching, the expected output of new - season cotton is still increasing steadily, bringing certain pressure on long - term supply. In summary, the domestic cotton price may oscillate within a range in the short term and be under pressure after the new cotton is listed [23]. Egg Industry - Egg prices have dropped to a stage low. Downstream traders and food factories may replenish stocks at low prices, and the increase in egg procurement will support the rise in egg prices. However, the egg - laying hen inventory remains at a high level, the egg supply is sufficient, and the impact of cold - stored eggs may suppress the increase in egg prices. Overall, the trend of egg futures remains bearish, and attention should be paid to the disturbance of low - level funds [26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Industry - **Futures Market Data**: The basis of the main contract decreased by 120 yuan/ton to - 565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26.97%. The price of the main contract increased by 80 yuan/ton to 14180 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.57%. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 1.00% [1]. - **Spot Market Data**: The spot prices in various regions decreased to varying degrees, and the local premium and discount also changed [1]. - **Slaughter Data**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 866 to 138986, an increase of 0.63% [1]. 粕类Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan/ton to 2940 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.68%. The price of the 2601 contract increased by 16 yuan/ton to 3094 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.52%. The basis of the 2601 contract increased by 4 to - 154, an increase of 2.53%. The import profit margin for Brazilian soybeans in October decreased by 12 to 92, a decrease of 11.5% [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 30 yuan/ton to 2660 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.14%. The price of the RM2601 contract increased by 37 to 2506, an increase of 1.50%. The basis of the RM2601 contract decreased by 7 to 154, a decrease of 4.35%. The import profit margin for Canadian rapeseed in November increased by 30 to 369, an increase of 8.85% [7]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3960 yuan/ton. The price of the main soybean contract decreased by 42 yuan/ton to 4067 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.02%. The basis of the main soybean contract increased by 42 to - 107, an increase of 28.19% [7]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal inter - period spread (09 - 01) decreased by 2 to - 49, a decrease of 4.26%. The rapeseed meal inter - period spread (09 - 01) decreased by 3 to 267, a decrease of 1.11% [7]. Oil Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8610 yuan/ton. The price of the Y2601 contract increased by 56 yuan/ton to 8456 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.67%. The basis of the Y2601 contract decreased by 56 to 154, a decrease of 26.67% [10]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55%. The price of the P2509 contract increased by 238 yuan/ton to 9218 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.65%. The basis of the P2509 contract decreased by 288 to - 238, a decrease of 576.00% [11]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 9640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.31%. The price of the 01509 contract increased by 14 yuan/ton to 9588 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.15%. The basis of the 01509 contract decreased by 44 to 52, a decrease of 45.83% [12]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) increased by 4 to 16, an increase of 33.33%. The palm oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) remained unchanged at - 20 [13]. Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price of the 2509 contract increased by 7 yuan/ton to 2262 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.31%. The semi - cabin price in Jinzhou Port remained unchanged at 2300 yuan/ton. The basis decreased by 7 to 38, a decrease of 15.56% [17]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the 2509 contract remained unchanged at 2642 yuan/ton. The spot price in Changchun remained unchanged at 2710 yuan/ton. The basis remained unchanged at 68 yuan/ton [17]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the 2601 contract remained unchanged at 5573 yuan/ton. The price of the 2509 contract decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 5678 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.04%. The price of the ICE raw sugar main contract increased by 0.27 cents/pound to 16.54 cents/pound, an increase of 1.66% [22]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 6000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.16%. The spot price in Kunming remained unchanged at 5825 yuan/ton [22]. - **Industry Data**: The national cumulative sugar production increased by 119.89 million tons to 1116.21 million tons, an increase of 12.03%. The national cumulative sugar sales increased by 152.10 million tons to 811.38 million tons, an increase of 23.07% [22]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the 2509 contract increased by 40 yuan/ton to 13680 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.29%. The price of the 2601 contract increased by 80 yuan/ton to 13880 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.58%. The price of the ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 0.56 cents/pound to 66.36 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.84% [23]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 16 yuan/ton to 15047 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11%. The CC Index of 3128B decreased by 17 yuan/ton to 15161 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11% [23]. - **Industry Data**: The commercial inventory decreased by 35.26 million tons to 218.98 million tons, a decrease of 13.9%. The industrial inventory increased by 1.63 million tons to 89.84 million tons, an increase of 1.8% [23]. Egg Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the 09 contract decreased by 91 yuan/500KG to 3271 yuan/500KG, a decrease of 2.71%. The price of the 10 contract decreased by 73 yuan/500KG to 3184 yuan/500KG, a decrease of 2.24% [26]. - **Spot Market**: The egg price in the production area increased by 0.19 yuan/jin to 3.11 yuan/jin, an increase of 6.47%. The basis increased by 280 yuan/500KG to - 157 yuan/500KG, an increase of 64.13% [26]. - **Industry Data**: The price of egg - laying hen chicks remained unchanged at 3.85 yuan/feather. The price of culled hens decreased by 0.21 yuan/jin to 5.67 yuan/jin, a decrease of 3.57% [26].

2025 年 8 月 12 日 股指期货将震荡整理 碳酸锂、多晶硅、焦煤期货将震荡偏 强 铁矿石、原油、棕榈油期货将偏强震荡 黄金、白银期 货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2509 阻力位 4114 和 4143 点，支撑位 4095 和 4076 点；IH2509 阻力位 2809 和 2828 点，支撑位 2777 和 2767 点；IC2509 阻力位 6350 和 6400 点，支撑位 6289 和 6254 点；IM250 ...

1. Report's Investment Ratings for Different Industries - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, PX, PTA, MEG [1][34][38][42] - **Cautiously Bullish**: LPG, urea [1][48] - **Bearish Rebound**: L, PP, PVC, propylene [1][14][21][28][56] - **Bearish**: Methanol, asphalt [3][46][52] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure is rising, and the oil price center continues to move down. Although the decline space is narrowing, there is still a downward pressure on oil prices. Focus on the US - Russia talks on Friday [1][5]. - **LPG**: With the cost side stabilizing and the high basis, the rebound momentum is increasing. The downstream chemical demand is fair, but the supply and inventory are neutral to bearish [1][11]. - **L**: The cost has stopped falling, and the demand has improved marginally. The supply pressure has increased marginally, but the agricultural film peak season is approaching, and the far - month contracts are resistant to decline [1][18]. - **PP**: The cost support has improved, but the downstream trading is weak. The fundamentals have limited further negative factors, and the technical side has bottom support. Pay attention to the peak - season restocking rhythm [1][25]. - **PVC**: It rebounds in the short - term following the cost increase, but the fundamentals remain weak, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to continue to accumulate inventory [1][32]. - **PX**: The supply side has little change, while the demand side has strengthened the maintenance of PTA devices. The expected tight balance of supply and demand is loosening, and the inventory is still relatively high. Be cautiously bearish [1][36]. - **PTA**: The maintenance of devices has increased recently, and the future supply pressure is expected to rise. The demand side is weak, and the cost support is weakening. Be cautiously bearish [1][40]. - **MEG**: The domestic devices have slightly increased their loads, but the arrivals and imports are still low compared to the same period. The downstream demand is weak, and the cost support is expected to weaken. Be cautiously bearish [1][44]. - **Methanol**: The supply pressure is increasing as the domestic maintenance devices resume production and overseas devices increase their loads. The demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. Be bearish [3][46]. - **Urea**: The operating load of urea devices is expected to increase, but the domestic industrial and agricultural demand is weak, and the export is relatively good. The cost side has some support. Be cautiously bullish [3][50]. - **Asphalt**: The cost side of crude oil is under pressure due to OPEC+ production increase, and the supply pressure is rising. The demand has declined in the north due to precipitation. The valuation is high, and it is bearish in the medium - long term [3][54]. - **Propylene**: The Zhenhua device had an unexpected shutdown, causing the spot price to rise sharply. The cost support of PDH is weakening, and the downstream demand is insufficient. However, the absolute price is low, and it is advisable to try to go long on dips [3][59]. 3. Summaries According to Different Commodities Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fluctuated in a range. WTI rose 0.13%, Brent rose 0.06%, and SC fell 0.79% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: The support of the peak season for oil prices is gradually weakening, and the pressure of OPEC+ production increase is rising. The oil price still has room to compress, but the downward support is strengthening. The medium - long - term price may reach around $60. Focus on the US - Russia talks on Friday [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Kazakhstan's oil exports to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline from January to July increased by 38% year - on - year. Azerbaijan's September BTC crude oil exports were lower than August. Shandong independent refinery's oil arrivals decreased by 8.18% week - on - week. US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3 million barrels [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the medium - long - term trend, due to new energy substitution and OPEC expansion, supply is gradually in surplus. Focus on the break - even point of new US shale oil wells at around $60. Technically, it is weak below the 20 - day moving average, but the support is rising. The strategy is to take profit on short positions and buy put options. Pay attention to the range of SC [490 - 505] [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 8, the PG main contract closed at 3,803 yuan/ton, down 0.89% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,500 (-20) yuan/ton, 4,403 (-3) yuan/ton, and 4,380 (0) yuan/ton respectively [10]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost side of oil is weak, but the self - fundamentals are fair, with a high basis. The recent increase in positions has strengthened the downward support. The supply has increased slightly, while the PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil operating rates have shown different trends. The refinery inventory has decreased, and the port inventory has increased [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, after the geopolitical risks are released, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to move down. Currently, the LPG - to - crude oil ratio is similar to the same period last year, with a neutral valuation. Technically, the RSI is in the oversold range, and positions have reached a high level, indicating a possible short - term rebound. The strategy is to try to go long with a light position. Pay attention to the range of PG [3,750 - 3,850] [12]. L - **Market Review**: The L2509 contract closed at 7,314 yuan/ton. The North China main basis was - 64 yuan/ton, and the L9 - 1 spread was - 50 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 400 [16]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost has stopped falling, and the demand has improved marginally, with continuous increases in spot prices. Most devices have restarted recently, increasing the supply pressure. However, the agricultural film peak season is approaching, and the operating rate has been rising for three consecutive weeks. The absolute price has a low valuation, and the far - month contracts are resistant to decline. The strategy is to try to go long on dips as the peak season approaches. Pay attention to the range of L [7,200 - 7,400] [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long on dips [19]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2509 closed at 7,095 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 37 yuan/ton and a PP9 - 1 spread of - 25 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [23]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price of propylene has increased, improving the cost support, but the downstream trading is weak, and the spot price has declined slightly. The upstream maintains a high level of maintenance, and the export profit has turned negative. The domestic demand is at the switching point between the off - season and peak season, and the downstream operating rate has been rising for two consecutive weeks. The fundamentals have limited further negative factors, and the technical side has bottom support. The strategy is to try to go long on pull - backs as the peak season approaches. Pay attention to the range of PP [7,000 - 7,150] [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long on pull - backs [26]. PVC - **Market Review**: The main contract V2509 closed at 5,010 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 1,745, mainly distributed in Hangzhou Wanfeng Warehouse, Benniu Warehouse, and Zhejiang Guomao Warehouse. The V2601 contract increased its positions by 70,000 lots, closing at 5,158 yuan/ton [30]. - **Basic Logic**: The price of thermal coal has been rising continuously, and PVC rebounds in the short - term following the cost increase. However, the fundamentals remain weak, with an increase in warehouse receipts. The upstream operating rate has increased to 79%, and the social inventory has been accumulating for seven consecutive weeks. New production capacity will be gradually released in August, and both domestic and foreign demand are in the off - season. The supply - demand pattern is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The strategy is to rebound in the short - term following the cost range and wait to go short after the rebound. Pay attention to the range of V [4,900 - 5,100] [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions as the supply - demand pattern tends to accumulate inventory in August [33]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 8, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6,726 (-30) yuan/ton. The PX9 - 1 spread was 50 (+4) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 149 (-2.4) yuan/ton [35]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic PX devices have little change, while overseas devices have slightly reduced their loads. The PXN spread is at a high level this year. The demand side has strengthened the maintenance of PTA devices due to low processing fees, and the expected tight balance of supply and demand is loosening. The inventory is still relatively high. Recently, there is no macro - level positive news at home and abroad, and the oil price is fluctuating weakly. Be cautiously bearish [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions, look for high - selling opportunities, and sell call options at the same time. Pay attention to the range of PX [6,700 - 6,795] [37]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 8, the PTA price in East China was 4,670 (-15) yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,684 (-4) yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 spread was - 20 (+18) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was - 14 (-11) yuan/ton [39]. - **Basic Logic**: The PTA processing fees are generally low, and the supply - side devices have significantly reduced their loads. The demand side, including downstream polyester and terminal weaving, is weak. The TA inventory is high, and the cost support is weakening. The expected tight balance of supply and demand in August is loosening. Be cautiously bearish, but pay attention to the opportunity of going long at the bottom due to low processing fees [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions, look for high - selling opportunities, and sell call options at the same time. Pay attention to the range of TA [4,660 - 4,730] [41]. MEG - **Market Review**: On August 8, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,456 (-19) yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,384 (-12) yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 spread was - 38 (-4) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 72 (-7) yuan/ton [43]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic MEG devices have slightly increased their loads, but the arrivals and imports are still low compared to the same period. The downstream polyester and terminal weaving are in the off - season, and the terminal orders are generally low. The supply - demand is in a tight balance in August, and the low inventory supports the price. The short - term driving force is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions and look for high - selling opportunities, and sell call options at the same time. Pay attention to the range of EG [4,380 - 4,430] [45]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 8, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,393 (-3) yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,383 (-5) yuan/ton. The East China basis was 10 (+2) yuan/ton, the port basis was - 3 (+3) yuan/ton, and the MA9 - 1 spread was - 92 (+17) yuan/ton [46]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic maintenance devices have resumed production, and overseas devices have increased their loads. The supply pressure is increasing, and the 8 - month arrivals are expected to be high. The demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. The cost support is stabilizing. The market is expected to be bearish [46]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Add short positions on rallies for the 09 contract, sell call options, and look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Gradually take profit on the 9 - 1 reverse spread. Pay attention to the range of MA [2,365 - 2,395] [47]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 8, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1,760 (-20) yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1,728 (-9) yuan/ton. The UR9 - 1 spread was - 23 (-3) yuan/ton, and the Shandong basis was 32 (-11) yuan/ton [49]. - **Basic Logic**: The operating load of urea devices is expected to increase, and the supply pressure is rising. The domestic industrial and agricultural demand is weak, but the export is relatively good. The inventory is decreasing but still at a high level in the past five years. The cost side has some support. Be cautiously bullish [50]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions of the 09 contract and look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Pay attention to the range of UR [1,710 - 1,740] [51]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On August 11, the BU main contract closed at 3,512 yuan/ton, up 0.03% month - on - month. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 3,680 (-80) yuan/ton, 3,730 (-50) yuan/ton, and 3,580 (0) yuan/ton respectively [53]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost side of crude oil is under pressure due to OPEC+ production increase, and the asphalt raw material supply is relatively sufficient. The current asphalt profit is fair, but the cracking spread is at a high level, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has declined in the north due to precipitation, and the price is under pressure in the medium - long term [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The cracking spread and the BU - FU spread are at high levels, and the valuation is high. As OPEC gradually expands production, the raw material supply is relatively sufficient. It is advisable to lay out short positions with a light position. Pay attention to the range of BU [3,450 - 3,550] [55]. Propylene - **Market Review**: The PL2601 contract closed at 6,491 yuan/ton [58]. - **Basic Logic**: The Zhenhua device had an unexpected shutdown, causing the spot price to rise sharply, and the futures price became at a discount to the Shandong spot price. The cost support of PDH is weakening, and although the operating rates of PDH and MTO have marginally increased, the downstream demand is insufficient. The PP powder operating rate is at a low level in the same period, and the factory inventory has been accumulating for five consecutive weeks, remaining at a high level in the same period. The fundamentals are still in an over - supply structure. However, the absolute price is low [59]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of PL [6,400 - 6,600] [59].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 8 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 基本面平稳，矿价偏强运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 观点参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石基本面变化不大，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗走弱，但因钢厂利润状况较好，高频指标 维持相对高位，需求韧性尚可，给予矿价强支撑。与此同时，国内港口矿石到货有所回落，而海外矿 商发运延续弱稳运行态 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年8月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 2、基差：现货4695，09合约基差-11，盘面贴水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.7天，环比减少0.12天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏空 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 MEG 每日观点 MEG： PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货区间震荡，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差走强，个别聚酯工厂递盘。个别主流供应商出货。8月主 港货在09-10～15有成交，8月底个别宁波货在09平水附近商谈，价格商谈区间在4680~4715附近。9月中上主港在09+0~5有成交。 今日主流现货基差在09-12。中 ...