1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks are disturbing the energy and chemical market, and the chemical industry as a whole will continue its volatile pattern. The prices of various products are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost support, showing different trends [4]. 3. Summary According to Different Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors continue to cause disruptions, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate. The actual reduction in Venezuelan crude oil exports is still uncertain, API data shows a decline in US crude oil inventories but an increase in gasoline and diesel inventories. OPEC +'s production expectations for the first quarter are stable, but the geopolitical situations in Iran and Venezuela are the core factors affecting supply expectations [8][9]. - **Asphalt**: As the political situation in Venezuela stabilizes, asphalt futures prices will decline. The supply interruption expectation of asphalt raw materials will be alleviated, asphalt supply and demand are both weak, inventory is accumulating, and its valuation compared to some products is relatively high [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Support for fuel oil futures prices is gradually accumulating. However, high - sulfur fuel oil faces medium - to long - term double negatives from high - floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region and the substitution of fuel oil demand by natural gas and photovoltaics [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices will fluctuate. It follows the trend of crude oil, has a certain support, but also faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution [12]. - **Methanol**: Due to the turbulent situation in the Middle East, methanol will rise strongly. The market is affected by overseas supply disruptions and high inventory pressure, but the methanol market based on coastal trading logic is still considered strong [27]. - **Urea**: New orders are actively traded. The release of the India tender has boosted market sentiment, and urea prices will be moderately strong. The supply is increasing, demand from some regions is rising, and the market is in a moderately strong state, but the upside space during the off - season is limited [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Geopolitical instability brings uncertainties to the supply side. Cost support is significant, but with the approaching Spring Festival, demand is expected to decline, and the price will be range - bound in the short term [20]. - **PX**: Geopolitical factors boost international oil prices, providing cost support for PX. In the short term, PX supply is expected to return, downstream polyester load is stable, and PX prices are expected to be sorted in a high - level range [13]. - **PTA**: Cost support and a positive chemical market sentiment strengthen the support for PTA prices. After the post - holiday maintenance devices return to production, the supply - demand relationship is marginally weaker, and the processing fee is slightly reduced [14][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: Cost provides some support, but demand is not sustainable, and profits are under pressure. Although the cost of upstream polyester raw materials is rising, the short - fiber's own supply - demand drive is weak, and it is in the off - season [22][23]. - **Bottle - Chip**: More device overhauls are scheduled in January, and the basis is strong. The cost is rising, but downstream buyers are waiting and watching. The increase in overhauls enhances the support for profits [24]. - **Plastic**: The weak basis restricts the upside space of plastics. Although the futures price has rebounded slightly due to macro - expectations and low - valuation varieties, the spot is weak, and demand is in the off - season [31][32]. - **PP**: The increase in overhauls makes PP prices rise cautiously. Affected by oil prices and geopolitical factors, the downstream is in the off - season, and the focus is on PDH in the future [33]. - **PL**: Supported by the expectation of PDH overhauls, PL prices will fluctuate. The spot trading atmosphere has improved, but downstream demand support is limited during the off - season [33]. - **PVC**: Frequent supply disruptions lead to a strong rebound in PVC. Geopolitical factors may boost the sentiment of commodity bulls. There are positive factors such as overseas device outages and expected increases in electricity costs, but the downstream is in the off - season [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: Positive market sentiment drives caustic soda prices. Geopolitical factors may boost the sentiment of commodity bulls. The expected increase in electricity costs for restricted - capacity caustic soda production in Shaanxi has boosted market sentiment, but the market is also facing problems such as high inventory [36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.41 with a change of 0.02, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is - 26 with a change of - 12 [39]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, asphalt's basis is - 74 with a change of - 11, and the number of warehouse receipts is 27920 [40]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 564 with a change of - 141 [41]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although specific content for each variety is mentioned, no detailed data or summaries are provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial product index), and PPI commodity index all show positive growth rates on January 6, 2026 [284]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on January 6, 2026, has a daily increase of 0.03%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.16%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.54%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.03% [285].

1月6日夜盘，沪镍多合约涨停，沪镍主力合约收涨至147720元／吨，LME镍期价盘中最高涨至18785美 元／吨。 据悉，全球镍市场仍处于供应过剩格局。尽管存在印度尼西亚减产预期，但主要生产国的产能惯性及新 能源汽车电池需求增长不及预期，使得整体供给依然宽松。不锈钢领域的需求受制于房地产等行业景气 度，尚未提供强劲拉动。 库存水平高企，对价格构成持续压制。截至2025年年底，LME镍库存25.4万吨，处于多年高位。中国国 内镍社会库存也同比显著增长。截至2026年1月4日，上期所镍库存为45544吨，高于近5年同期均值。 谈及镍现货市场格局的变化，王维芒认为，市场呈现"预期紧缩"与"现实过剩"并存的复杂局面。受减产 预期和年底部分企业检修影响，现货市场出现结构性紧张，例如2025年年末金川镍现货价格升水一度大 幅拉升至年内高点。供应收紧的预期已开始影响现货定价。 戴梓兆也认为，当前镍供需仍呈小幅过剩状态，经历了2025年10—11月减产后，国内精炼镍的累库速度 放缓，但仍维持累库趋势。数据显示，截至1月5日，全球精炼镍显性库存为31.66万吨，总量处于近5年 来高位。镍铁端，受终端价格的上涨带动，成交价环比上 ...

Group 1 - The geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela has led to increased uncertainty in Venezuela, a country rich in oil reserves, resulting in a rise in international oil prices [2] - As of January 5, the domestic reference crude oil change rate was 1.07%, indicating a potential increase in gasoline and diesel prices by 45 yuan/ton, but the adjustment was suspended due to insufficient price change [2][3] - The current oil price adjustment mechanism in China has resulted in no changes to gasoline and diesel prices as the adjustment amount was less than 50 yuan/ton [3] Group 2 - Supply-demand imbalance is a key factor influencing the current international oil price trend, with OPEC+ likely to pause production increases while non-OPEC+ production remains high [4] - Analysts have differing views on the next round of fuel price adjustments, with some expecting an increase due to geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand, while others predict a downward trend due to high US oil inventories [4][5] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Venezuela conflict, are expected to create short-term upward pressure on oil prices, but long-term recovery of Venezuelan oil production could lead to increased global supply [5][6]

美国3日凌晨对委内瑞拉发起大规模军事行动，突袭委首都加拉加斯等地，强行控制委内瑞拉总统马杜 罗及其夫人并将他们带至美国。加拿大帝国商业银行私人财富管理公司高级能源交易员丽贝卡·巴宾表 示，这一事件加剧了地缘政治风险，不确定性上升导致5日油价反弹。 尽管地缘政治风险推动当日油价上涨，但基本面的疲软仍给石油产业中期前景蒙上阴影。在需求增长乏 力背景下，随着"欧佩克+"和其他产油国增加产量，今年全球市场或面临供应过剩。 新华社纽约1月5日电 综述丨地缘政治风险推动国际金价油价上涨 尽管市场仍担忧全球石油供应过剩，受美国在委内瑞拉军事行动引发的地缘政治冲击影响，国际原油价 格5日上涨；纽约商品交易所黄金和白银期货价格5日大幅上涨，2月黄金期价涨幅一度超过3%，再次站 上每盎司4450美元；3月白银期价涨幅一度超过7%。 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所2月交货的轻质原油（WTI）期货价格上涨1.00美元，收于每桶58.32美 元，涨幅为1.74%。3月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.01美元，收于每桶61.76美元，涨幅为 1.66%。 受避险需求增加推动，国际黄金和白银价格5日大幅上涨。 世界黄金协会最新市场监测报 ...

新华社纽约1月5日电 综述丨地缘政治风险推动国际金价油价上涨 新华社记者徐静 尽管市场仍担忧全球石油供应过剩，受美国在委内瑞拉军事行动引发的地缘政治冲击影响，国际原油价 格5日上涨；纽约商品交易所黄金和白银期货价格5日大幅上涨，2月黄金期价涨幅一度超过3%，再次站 上每盎司4450美元；3月白银期价涨幅一度超过7%。 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所2月交货的轻质原油（WTI）期货价格上涨1.00美元，收于每桶58.32美 元，涨幅为1.74%。3月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.01美元，收于每桶61.76美元，涨幅为 1.66%。 美国3日凌晨对委内瑞拉发起大规模军事行动，突袭委首都加拉加斯等地，强行控制委内瑞拉总统马杜 罗及其夫人并将他们带至美国。加拿大帝国商业银行私人财富管理公司高级能源交易员丽贝卡·巴宾表 示，这一事件加剧了地缘政治风险，不确定性上升导致5日油价反弹。 尽管地缘政治风险推动当日油价上涨，但基本面的疲软仍给石油产业中期前景蒙上阴影。在需求增长乏 力背景下，随着"欧佩克+"和其他产油国增加产量，今年全球市场或面临供应过剩。 路透社5日发布的一项针对34名经济学家和分析师的调查进一步印证了 ...

Group 1 - Venezuela's current oil production of approximately 1 million barrels per day accounts for less than 1% of global supply, with key facilities like Jose port and Amuay refinery unaffected, indicating low risk of substantial supply disruption [1][2] - Oil prices in the Asia-Pacific market rebounded slightly, with Brent crude futures rising by 0.3% to $60.92 per barrel and WTI crude futures increasing by 0.2% to $57.43 per barrel, despite concerns over supply surplus [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that by 2026, global oil supply will exceed demand by 3.8 million barrels per day, marking a historic oversupply record [2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the market's focus may shift from concerns over supply disruption to expectations regarding the recovery speed of Venezuela's production capacity and the return of U.S. energy companies to the market [3] - Goldman Sachs maintains its price forecasts for Brent crude at an average of $56 per barrel and WTI at $52 per barrel for 2026, indicating limited short-term impact from Venezuela's situation on oil prices [3] - RBC Capital's commodity research head suggests that a complete lifting of sanctions on Venezuela could potentially release hundreds of thousands of barrels per day within 12 months under an orderly transition [3] Group 3 - The geopolitical uncertainty has increased the appeal of gold and other precious metals as safe-haven assets, leading to a rise in their prices [4] - UBS forecasts that global central bank gold net purchases will reach 950 tons by 2026, up from a previous estimate of 900 tons, indicating strong demand for gold [5] - UBS has raised its target prices for gold in March, June, and September 2026 from $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce, with a slight expected decline to $4,800 per ounce by the end of 2026 [5]

Group 1: Oil Price Movement - International oil prices initially rose due to the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro, with U.S. crude reaching $57.73 per barrel and Brent crude hitting $61.24 per barrel [2][12] - However, prices later declined, with Brent crude falling 0.69% to $60.32 per barrel and U.S. crude down 0.82% to $56.85 per barrel [2][12] - The market's rational assessment indicated that while the Venezuelan situation might reduce oil supply, the overall impact on global supply was limited due to existing oversupply conditions [2][12] Group 2: Venezuelan Oil Production and Global Impact - Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves globally, accounting for approximately 17% of the total, but its current production is less than 1% of global output due to political and economic issues [4][14] - The limited impact of Venezuela's production on global oil prices is attributed to its small export volume and concentrated export destinations [14] - Analysts suggest that any potential recovery in Venezuelan oil production could alter the global supply structure, but current production challenges remain significant [5][15] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors and Market Dynamics - The geopolitical situation in Venezuela, including U.S. military actions and sanctions, has been factored into oil market pricing for some time, leading to limited immediate effects on oil prices [3][14] - The U.S. has a vested interest in Venezuelan heavy crude oil due to its compatibility with U.S. refining capabilities, which are designed for processing heavy crude [17] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the situation in Iran and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to influence market sentiment and risk premiums [18][19] Group 4: Supply and Demand Outlook - The oil market is expected to remain oversupplied in the first quarter of the year, with increasing production from non-OPEC countries like the U.S. and Brazil [19][20] - Demand forecasts for 2026 are not optimistic, suggesting that the oversupply situation may persist [19] - OPEC's decision to pause production increases indicates a proactive management approach to supply, providing some support to the market [20]

Core Viewpoint - The global nickel market is entering 2026 with mixed signals, as prices remain firm due to anticipated supply tightening from Indonesia, but broader industry forecasts indicate structural oversupply that may limit sustained price increases [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Nickel futures prices reached $16,765 per ton as of the week ending January 2, marking a nearly 7% weekly increase, driven more by policy sentiment than changes in demand fundamentals [1] - A key question remains whether global nickel supply and demand can achieve balance as the market moves forward into 2026 [1] Group 2: Indonesian Policy Uncertainty - Indonesia is considering reducing its 2026 nickel ore production quota to approximately 250 million wet tons, significantly lower than the 379 million wet tons target for 2025, which has boosted recent price sentiment [2] - However, market participants note that the finalization of these quotas may take time, and the implementation risks remain high, viewing the proposed cuts as more of a sentiment support rather than a substantial tightening of supply [2] Group 3: Supply Overhang from NPI Expansion - Despite policy discussions, Indonesia's nickel supply surplus is primarily supported by rapid capacity expansion in nickel pig iron (NPI) and intermediate products [3] - Industrial centers like Morowali and Weda Bay continue to expand and optimize existing smelting capacities, ensuring ample nickel supply and exacerbating the structural oversupply situation [3] Group 4: Price Outlook and Forecasts - Major financial institutions maintain a cautious outlook on nickel prices amid oversupply conditions [4] - The World Bank forecasts nickel prices to be around $15,500 per ton in 2026, with a slight increase to $16,000 per ton in 2027 [5] - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that profits of Indonesian producers are a key volatility factor, predicting prices will drop to $14,500 per ton by the end of 2026 [6] - Nornickel predicts a surplus of approximately 275,000 tons in 2026, reinforcing expectations of continued price pressure, while ING forecasts average prices to remain around $15,250 per ton due to high inventories and sluggish demand [7] Group 5: Overall Market Outlook - Although discussions around Indonesian policies inject volatility and short-term support for nickel prices, the overall outlook for 2026 remains influenced by structural oversupply [8] - Unless there is a significant slowdown in supply growth or an acceleration in demand from the stainless steel and battery sectors, nickel prices are likely to remain range-bound with limited upside potential [8]

Group 1 - Precious metals are leading the market gains, with gold's safe-haven attributes highlighted amid the political turmoil in Venezuela [1][4] - Oil prices in the Asia-Pacific market have turned from a decline to a slight increase, with Brent crude futures rising by 0.3% to $60.92 per barrel and WTI crude futures up by 0.2% to $57.43 per barrel [3] - Analysts expect that even if Venezuela's oil exports are disrupted, it will not have an immediate impact on oil prices due to a globally sufficient oil supply [3][4] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global oil supply will exceed demand by 3.8 million barrels per day by 2026, marking a historic oversupply record [3] - Goldman Sachs maintains its price forecast for Brent crude at an average of $56 per barrel and WTI at $52 per barrel for 2026, indicating limited risk from the Venezuelan situation [4][5] - RBC Capital Markets suggests that a complete lifting of sanctions on Venezuela could release hundreds of thousands of barrels per day within 12 months under an orderly transition [5] Group 3 - Gold prices have risen by 1.4% to $4,393.64 per ounce, with silver up by 3.4% to $75.28 per ounce, driven by geopolitical uncertainties [5] - UBS highlights that gold remains an attractive asset and a crucial risk-hedging tool, with expectations of steady demand growth due to declining real interest rates and rising global economic uncertainties [5][6] - UBS has raised its target price for gold to $5,000 per ounce by March 2026, with potential for prices to reach $5,400 per ounce if political or financial risks escalate [6]

1月5日，原油期货盘面表现偏弱，截至发稿主力合约报425.1元/桶，大幅下挫2.61%。 高盛集团表示，美国介入之后，委内瑞拉的石油产量在未来有望进一步提高，这可能会最终对油价造成压力。 机构观点 海通期货：总体来看，因为市场在一季度仍面临明显的供应过剩压力，且过剩压力有增加迹象，预计1月份油价重心仍有望进一步走低。不过， 随着油价进入低价区间，其下跌空间相对受限，且目前全球地缘局势高度不稳定，行情在低位很容易出现反复。 方正中期期货：短期来看，特朗普表示仍然全面禁运委内瑞拉石油，且由于政局动荡，当前该国石油出口已出现瘫痪，短时间内将导致国际市场 上委内瑞拉重油供给的缺失，亚洲一些炼厂将转向俄罗斯、中东等寻找重油替代，这将加剧国际市场上重油供应紧张局面，轻重油价差将被动收 窄。1月份原油市场将面临地缘局势带来的利多扰动与自身供给过剩压力之间的博弈，但地缘因素导致的油价阶段性上涨往往缺乏持续性，且暂 不会改变油价整体下行趋势。 【消息面汇总】 西太平洋银行大宗商品与碳研究主管Rob Rennie表示，在美国采取军事行动之后，随着此前停产的油田重新启动，未来12至18个月内，委内瑞拉 原油产量可能增加30万至50 ...