Group 1: Market Analysis - On December 18, 2025, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 106,800 yuan/ton and closed at 106,160 yuan/ton, with a -0.79% change compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,013,916 lots, and the open interest was 672,711 lots, up from 668,589 lots the previous day. The current basis was -10,850 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 15,636 lots, unchanged from the previous day [1] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Spot - According to SMM data, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 95,300 - 99,800 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 93,900 - 96,000 yuan/ton, also up 500 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,340 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The market transactions were rare, mainly supported by the rigid demand of some enterprises. The supply of lithium salt plants was stable, with an expected 3% month-on-month increase in domestic lithium carbonate production in December. The demand was supported by the new energy vehicle and energy storage markets, but the production schedules of cells and cathode materials were expected to decline slightly month-on-month in December. The industry maintained a pattern of "steady increase in supply and stable demand at a high level", with the de-stocking trend continuing but at a slower pace. The weekly inventory decreased by 1,044 tons, and the total inventory was 110,425 tons [2] Group 3: Strategy - The decline of lithium carbonate was due to technical overbought repair and profit-taking. The continuous de-stocking, certain consumption support, and supply uncertainty were key factors supporting the strong price. In the short term, it was likely to maintain a high-level shock. Attention should be paid to the production capacity release rhythm and capital trends, and be vigilant against the intensified fluctuations caused by the marginal changes in supply and demand [3] Group 4: Trading Recommendations - Unilateral: Wait and see in the short term - Inter - delivery spread: None - Cross - variety: None - Futures - cash: None - Options: None [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Market is in a short - term long - short stalemate. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,000 - 15,500. Supply - side support exists due to geopolitical tensions in Thailand and domestic产区停割, while demand - side growth is restricted by slow tire sales and low profits in some sectors [1]. Polyolefins - Both polyethylene and polypropylene face a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [4]. Methanol - Methanol futures are oscillating higher. The port market may be weak in the near term due to Iranian supply, while the inland market has increasing supply and demand. The 05 contract can be considered for long positions after reduced shipments [6][8]. LPG No specific overall view is provided other than presenting price, inventory, and开工率 data [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene is expected to have limited downside. The BZ2603 may oscillate between 5,300 - 5,600. Styrene has limited driving force and is expected to be weak in the short - term [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Rolling low - buying operations are recommended. - PTA: TA rolling low - buying and TA5 - 9 low - level positive spreads are suggested. - Ethylene Glycol: Short - term low - level oscillation is expected, and selling EG2605 - C - 4100 is advisable to obtain time value. - Short - fiber: It follows raw material fluctuations, and the disk processing fee can be shorted when it is high. - Polyester Bottle Chips: Selling PR2602 - P - 5500 is recommended, and the main disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton [15]. Crude Oil - The market is greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Brent crude should be monitored at the $60/barrel level. Attention should be paid to US - Russia talks, Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and the US - Venezuela situation [16]. Urea - The 2605 contract's main logic is the support of spring plowing fertilizer demand under high - supply pressure. Attention should be paid to whether the price can stabilize at 1,700 and the spirit of the urea meeting [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak. PVC supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and the price outlook is not optimistic. Short - term observation and shorting on rebounds are recommended [19]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The supply - demand situation is bearish, and short - selling opportunities after rebounds should be noted. - Glass: The market has pressure, and the 01 contract will follow the delivery logic in December, while the 05 contract is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned whole latex remained unchanged at 15,050 yuan/ton; the whole - milk basis increased by 20.59%. Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.68% to 14,550 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 16.67%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 66.67% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, Thailand's production decreased by 0.29%, Indonesia's by 1.53%, and China's by a certain amount. November domestic tire production increased by 3.96%, and exports increased by 9.36% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded - area inventory increased by 2.08%, and上期所factory - warehouse futures inventory increased by 3.87% [1]. Polyolefins - **Futures and Spot Prices**: L2601 and L2605 decreased slightly, PP2601 increased by 0.10%, and PP2605 decreased by 0.40%. Some spot prices changed slightly [4]. - **Spreads**: L15, PP15, and LP01 spreads changed to different extents [4]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: PE downstream weighted开工率 decreased by 1.28%, and some PP开工率 and inventory indicators changed [4]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 and MA2605 increased, and some spreads and basis changed [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 10.86%, while port inventory decreased by 1.26% [7]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 indicators increased or decreased [8]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: PG2601, PG2602, and PG2603 increased, and some spreads and basis changed [12]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory increased [12]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 indicators changed [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: Some prices and spreads of pure benzene and styrene changed [14]. - **Inventory**: Benzene and styrene port inventories changed [14]. - **开工率**: Some开工率 indicators of the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Crude oil, PX, and polyester product prices changed to different extents [15]. - **Spreads**: PX - related spreads, PTA - related spreads, and MEG - related spreads changed [15]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Some开工率 indicators and MEG port inventory changed [15]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased, and some spreads changed [16]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: Some refined oil prices and spreads changed [16]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Some refined oil crack spreads changed [16]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Urea futures prices changed, and some spot prices changed [18]. - **Spreads and Positions**: Some spreads and positions changed [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, inventory, and订单天数 changed [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: Some prices of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Some overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**:开工率, demand - side开工率, and inventory of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass and Soda Ash Prices**: Some prices of glass and soda ash changed [20]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash开工率, production, and inventory, as well as glass inventory and some related data changed [20]. - **Real Estate Data**: Some real - estate data changed [20].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-19 冬储预期配合供给扰动，盘⾯延续反弹 淡季供需双弱，其中螺纹钢基本⾯仍有韧性，热卷库存压⼒仍存，基 本⾯难⾔亮点，但冬储补库预期叠加成本⽀撑，盘⾯低位反弹。同时 冬储补库预期⽀撑下铁矿盘⾯表现较强，供给扰动⽀撑煤焦估值修复 反弹。玻纯盘⾯价格低位震荡，供需过剩格局下限制玻纯上⽅空间。 淡季供需双弱，其中螺纹钢基本面仍有韧性，热卷库存压力仍存，基 本面难言亮点，但冬储补库预期叠加成本支撑，盘面低位反弹。同时 冬储补库预期支撑下铁矿盘面表现较强，供给扰动支撑煤焦估值修复 反弹。玻纯盘面价格低位震荡，供需过剩格局下限制玻纯上方空间。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水继续下滑，刚需支撑减弱，港口库存累积，钢 厂补库需求仍未明显释放，短期矿价预计震荡运行。废钢供减需稳， 钢厂库存偏高，补库放缓，但电炉利润尚可，长、短流程钢企废钢需 求仍有支撑，预计现货价格震荡。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭现货短期虽仍有一轮补跌预期，但随着焦钢企 业原料冬储补库，成本端有望企稳，对现货价格提供支撑，盘面估值 仍有修复空间，预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随着年关 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - The Fed's resumption of Treasury bond purchases has led to a marginal easing of liquidity expectations, and the tone of China's Central Economic Work Conference is positive. The short - term risk of a continuous decline in copper prices is small, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [5]. Aluminum - Global aluminum inventories continue to decline, and are at relatively low levels compared to the same period in previous years. With overseas supply disruptions and loose macro - policies, aluminum prices are strongly supported. If inventories continue to decline, aluminum prices are expected to rise further after an oscillatory adjustment [8]. Lead - Lead ore inventories are basically flat, the operating rate of primary lead is declining, while the operating rate of recycled lead is rising. With the ebb of the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market, it is expected that lead prices will operate weakly in a wide range in the short term [10]. Zinc - Zinc ore inventories are decreasing, domestic zinc ingot inventories are decreasing, and LME zinc ingot inventories are slowly increasing. After the ebb of the non - ferrous metals sentiment, Shanghai zinc may give back some of its gains [12]. Tin - Although the current tin market demand is weak and supply is expected to improve, with low downstream inventories, the bargaining power is limited. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [14]. Nickel - The surplus pressure of nickel is still large. It is necessary to wait for ferronickel to further decline in price before testing the cash cost of the pyrometallurgical production line. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The cancellation of 27 expired mining rights in Yichun has no real impact on supply, but the expectation of supply - demand pattern repair cannot be falsified. Due to the large intraday price fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to fundamental dynamics and changes in positions [21]. Alumina - After the rainy season, the shipping from Guinea is gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. The alumina smelting capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market has entered the traditional off - season, and the supply pressure is expected to ease. The market is currently in a tight - balance pattern, and prices are oscillating widely. It is recommended to wait and see [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively firm, and there are continuous supply disruptions. The demand is relatively volatile, and there is delivery pressure. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [30]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Information - The price of silver hit a new high, and copper prices rose. LME copper inventories increased by 325 to 166,925 tons. Domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 45,000 tons. The domestic spot copper import loss was about 1,000 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened [4]. Strategy Viewpoint - The short - term risk of a continuous decline in copper prices is small, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The operating range of the Shanghai copper main contract is 91,600 - 94,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 11,600 - 11,900 US dollars/ton [5]. Aluminum Market Information - The LME aluminum cancelled warrants continued to increase, and aluminum prices rose. The SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions decreased slightly, and futures warehouse receipts decreased. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar inventories decreased [7]. Strategy Viewpoint - Aluminum prices are strongly supported. If inventories continue to decline, aluminum prices are expected to rise further after an oscillatory adjustment. The operating range of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21,900 - 22,300 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2,870 - 2,940 US dollars/ton [8]. Lead Market Information - On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.59% to 16,741 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell 1 to 1,943 US dollars/ton. Domestic social inventories increased slightly [9]. Strategy Viewpoint - It is expected that lead prices will operate weakly in a wide range in the short term [10]. Zinc Market Information - On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.30% to 22,976 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S fell 4.5 to 3,058.5 US dollars/ton. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories decreased [11]. Strategy Viewpoint - After the ebb of the non - ferrous metals sentiment, Shanghai zinc may give back some of its gains [12]. Tin Market Information - On December 17, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 328,600 yuan/ton, up 1.72%. The operating rate of tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi is stable at a high level but lacks upward momentum. The demand for tin ingots has declined, and inventories have increased [13]. Strategy Viewpoint - Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract operating range is 300,000 - 335,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin operating range is 39,000 - 43,000 US dollars/ton [14]. Nickel Market Information - On Wednesday, nickel prices rebounded after hitting a low. The spot premiums of various brands were stable, and the price of ferronickel weakened [16]. Strategy Viewpoint - The surplus pressure of nickel is still large. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The short - term operating range of Shanghai nickel is 110,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 13,000 - 15,500 US dollars/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose 4.45%. The LC2605 contract closed up 7.97% [20]. Strategy Viewpoint - Due to large intraday price fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to fundamental dynamics and changes in positions. The operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 104,800 - 112,300 yuan/ton [21]. Alumina Market Information - On December 17, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.5% to 2,619 yuan/ton. The spot price in Shandong decreased, and overseas prices also decreased. Futures warehouse receipts decreased [23]. Strategy Viewpoint - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [24]. Stainless Steel Market Information - On Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,380 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. Spot prices in some markets increased, and raw material prices were stable. Social inventories decreased [26]. Strategy Viewpoint - The market is currently in a tight - balance pattern, and prices are oscillating widely. It is recommended to wait and see [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The cast aluminum alloy rebounded, the weighted contract positions decreased, and the volume shrank. The inventory of domestic three - place aluminum alloy ingots decreased [29]. Strategy Viewpoint - Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [30].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see, and await verification of OPEC's export decline when oil prices fall [2][3] - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. There are still pressures on the port, and the supply is at a high level. The fundamentals have some pressure, and it is expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [5][6] - For urea, the supply - demand situation has improved. There is support at the bottom, and it is expected to build a bottom in shock. It is recommended to consider buying at low prices [8][9][10] - For rubber, adopt a neutral approach, recommend short - term operations, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [11][12] - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong and demand is weak. The fundamentals are poor. In the short term, there is a rebound driven by sentiment, but in the medium term, the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [12][13][14] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair. It is possible to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [16][17] - For polyethylene, the valuation has limited downward space, but there is pressure from high - level warehouse receipts. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [19][20] - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [22][23] - For PX, it is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in December. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [25][26] - For PTA, the processing fee may be under pressure later. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on expected trading [27][28][29] - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern needs greater production cuts to improve. Be wary of the rebound risk caused by an increase in unexpected maintenance [30][31] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 6.60 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.51%, at 430.50 yuan/barrel; related refined oil futures such as high - sulfur fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil also declined. China's weekly crude oil data showed inventory accumulation in various types of oil [2] - **Strategy View**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see, and await verification of OPEC's export decline when oil prices fall [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different areas had different changes. The main futures contract rose by 55 yuan/ton to 2129 yuan/ton, with a basis of +31. MTO profit was - 131 yuan [5] - **Strategy View**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. There are still pressures on the port, and the supply is at a high level. The fundamentals have some pressure, and it is expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in some areas declined, and the overall basis was reported at 40 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose by 1 yuan/ton to 1630 yuan/ton [8] - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand situation has improved. There is support at the bottom, and it is expected to build a bottom in shock. It is recommended to consider buying at low prices [9][10] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated and consolidated. The exchange's RU inventory warrants were low, and there was buying demand for winter storage. There were different views from the long and short sides. The operating rates of domestic tire enterprises had different changes, and the social inventory of natural rubber increased [11] - **Strategy View**: Adopt a neutral approach, recommend short - term operations, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [12] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract rose by 84 yuan to 4399 yuan, and the spot price and basis had corresponding changes. The overall operating rate and downstream operating rate declined, and the inventory increased [12] - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak. The fundamentals are poor. In the short term, there is a rebound driven by sentiment, but in the medium term, the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [13][14] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene in the spot and futures markets had different changes, and indicators such as the basis, profit, and inventory also had corresponding changes [16] - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair. It is possible to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price of polyethylene declined, and the spot price also declined. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, the inventory had different changes, and the downstream operating rate declined [19] - **Strategy View**: The valuation has limited downward space, but there is pressure from high - level warehouse receipts. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [20] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price of polypropylene rose, and the spot price declined. The upstream operating rate increased, the inventory had different changes, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly [22] - **Strategy View**: In a situation of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [23] PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract declined, and indicators such as the basis, load, and inventory had corresponding changes [25] - **Strategy View**: It is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in December. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [26] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract declined, and indicators such as the basis, load, inventory, and processing fee had corresponding changes [27] - **Strategy View**: The processing fee may be under pressure later. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on expected trading [28][29] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract rose, and indicators such as the basis, supply - side load, downstream load, inventory, and profit had corresponding changes [30] - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs greater production cuts to improve. Be wary of the rebound risk caused by an increase in unexpected maintenance [31]

液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-16 外盘出现回调，内盘波动增加 市场分析 1、\t12月15日地区价格：山东市场，4400-4500；东北市场，4080-4300；华北市场，4300-4450；华东市场，4320-4475； 沿江市场，4580-4960；西北市场，4150-4400；华南市场，4390-4500。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年1月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷605美元/吨，跌10美元/吨，丁烷595美元/吨，跌10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4706元/吨，跌77元/吨，丁烷4628元/吨，跌77元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年1月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷599美元/吨，跌10美元/吨，丁烷589美元/吨，跌10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4659元/吨，跌77元/吨，丁烷4582元/吨，跌76元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 昨日外盘丙丁烷掉期价格回落，但近期整体表现强于内盘，到岸成本受到一定支撑。现货方面，山东区域小幅下 跌，其余区域维稳为主，整体成交尚可，卖方库存无忧。近期随着丙烷原料进口成本上涨，国内PDH装置利润承 压，弹性需求受到 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's apparent oil demand in November increased by 4.53% year - on - year, and from January to November, it increased by 3.32% year - on - year. However, global supply growth far exceeds demand, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil has declined. The chemical industry is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern, with investors advised to adopt a weak and volatile mindset [2][3]. - The energy - chemical industry will continue its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weak and aromatics being slightly stronger [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Inventory is continuously rising, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical premiums are constantly fluctuating due to the situations in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela. OPEC +'s output trend is not obvious after a significant slowdown in the net quota growth rate in the fourth quarter, and it is difficult to contribute to expected deviations in the short term. Recently, oil prices have returned to near previous lows due to continuous inventory build - up and the decline of geopolitical premiums [8]. - **Outlook**: The expected oversupply pattern in the fundamentals continues, and geopolitical expectations may still fluctuate. It should be viewed as volatile [9]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The spot market is weak, and the asphalt futures price rose and then fell. - **Main Logic**: OPEC + continued to increase production in December, and there is still a probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. Oil prices fell from high levels, and the situation between the US and Venezuela has heated up again. The asphalt futures price rose and then fell, and the market is concerned about the progress of the US - Venezuela situation. After the futures pricing returns to the Shandong spot price, attention should be paid to the changes in the Shandong spot price [10]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated [10]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The support for high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is insufficient. - **Main Logic**: OPEC + continued to increase production in December, and there is still a probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. The high - sulfur fuel oil futures price fell with the decline of oil prices. The demand outlook for high - sulfur fuel oil is currently suppressed by high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are currently weak [10]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand are weak. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates weakly following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil to fluctuate weakly. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic refined oil supply pressure has increased significantly, and the low - sulfur fuel oil supply has unexpectedly decreased [13]. - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green fuel substitution and the lack of demand space for high - sulfur substitution, but its current valuation is low and it fluctuates with crude oil. 3.1.5 Methanol - **View**: The unloading at coastal areas is less than expected, and the supply and demand in the inland areas provide support. Methanol fluctuates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: The inland market has regional differences, and the port social inventory is in the digestion stage. The inland enterprise inventory at a low level supports the price. The shipping situation in the Middle East has slowed down, and the unloading in coastal areas is likely to be less than expected, but the overall inventory pressure still exists [30]. - **Outlook**: It should be viewed as a short - term fluctuation and consolidation. 3.1.6 Urea - **View**: The demand support is insufficient, and the futures price fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The daily output of urea is at a relatively high level on the supply side, and the support from factors such as off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export has weakened on the demand side. The market trading atmosphere has weakened, and some enterprises have lowered their quotes [31]. - **Outlook**: There is a lack of effective stimulating factors in the market, and the market sentiment is in a stalemate. The short - term market will maintain a weak and stable situation. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **View**: The industry reduces production to resist, and the supply - demand structure has improved, but market expectations dominate reality. - **Main Logic**: The price of ethylene glycol rose and then fell. Although the supply - demand structure has improved slightly due to production reduction, the port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the long - term supply - demand fundamentals are weak. The short - term market is difficult to reverse the weakness, and the rebound space is limited [23][24]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price may bottom out under industry resistance, but the long - term inventory build - up pressure is still large, and the price will maintain a wide - range volatile operation at a low level. 3.1.8 PX - **View**: Due to the poor performance of costs in the short term, the increase is hindered. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has strengthened, and international oil prices and naphtha prices have fallen. Although the market has a strong overall expectation for PX, the increase is hindered due to the poor short - term cost performance. The PTA market has good negotiations, which supports the benefits of upstream PX [14][15]. - **Outlook**: PX will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term under the influence of expectations and market sentiment. It is expected that PXN will be sorted out in the range of [260, 300]. PX maintains a positive spread logic. 3.1.9 PTA - **View**: The spot circulation is tight, and the basis remains strong. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost performance is average, and PX's good supply - demand expectations prevent the cost from being further transmitted to the downstream. PTA's short - term supply and demand are stable, the basis is strong, and the near - month supply and demand are generally tight. The polyester load remains high, and some polyester factories make appropriate replenishments, resulting in good negotiations [15][16]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate and consolidate following the cost, and the processing fee will maintain range operation with limited expansion space. In the medium term, the TA05 contract can be bought on dips in the 4600 - 4700 range. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The cost support is acceptable, but the demand is average. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost performance is acceptable recently, and the price of polyester short - fiber fluctuates upward following the cost. The demand is in the off - season and is gradually weakening. Currently, the inventory pressure of short - fiber is not large, and it generally fluctuates with raw materials [26][27]. - **Outlook**: The price of short - fiber will fluctuate with the upstream, and the support for the processing fee below is strengthened. The long - TA and short - PF positions should stop profit and leave the market. 3.1.11 Bottle - Chip - **View**: The trading atmosphere declined after concentrated replenishment. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw materials fluctuated and rebounded, providing certain cost support for polyester bottle - chips. After concentrated replenishment last week, the price of bottle - chips rose slightly, and the trading atmosphere declined. The short - term price mainly follows the raw materials for sorting [28]. - **Outlook**: The absolute value fluctuates with the raw materials, and the overall support for the processing fee below is strengthened. 3.1.12 Propylene - **View**: The spot is strong, and there is an expectation of PDH production reduction. PL rebounds cautiously. - **Main Logic**: The PDH production reduction expectation still provides some support. On the spot side, the inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the quotes are generally stable. The downstream buying is cautious, and the actual transaction premium is rare. The short - term powder profit is still under pressure, and the low - start - up situation still has a drag [35]. - **Outlook**: PL will fluctuate in the short term. 3.1.13 PP - **View**: Supported by the expectation of PDH production reduction, PP fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: PDH profits are under short - term pressure, and the valuation support for gas - based production has increased. Oil prices are fluctuating, and geopolitical premiums are constantly fluctuating. The supply - demand pattern of PP is still under pressure, and the downstream is in the off - season, with a cautious purchasing mentality [34][35]. - **Outlook**: PP will fluctuate in the short term. 3.1.14 Plastic (LLDPE) - **View**: The trading volume has increased, but the support from maintenance is limited. Plastic fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: Recently, the futures price has rebounded, mainly driven by PP. Oil prices are fluctuating, and the geopolitical premium is constantly fluctuating. The fundamental support for plastic itself is still limited, and the supply reduction expectation is weaker than that of PP. The demand for plastic is gradually entering the off - season, and the sustainability of the price increase is still questionable [34]. - **Outlook**: It will be weakly volatile in the short term. 3.1.15 Styrene - **View**: Both upward and downward movements are restricted, and styrene fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: Recently, the support from crude oil and the cost side is insufficient, which drags down the styrene price. The supply - demand of styrene itself is in a tight - balance state, which provides support for the price, but there is insufficient upward driving force. There is an expectation of further inventory reduction in December, but the release of liquidity will suppress the upside. Seasonal inventory build - up will start in January [21][22]. - **Outlook**: It will be slightly stronger and volatile. 3.1.16 PVC - **View**: The expectation of oversupply still exists, and PVC fluctuates at a low level. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the boost from the "anti - involution" sentiment to low - valuation varieties may be short - term. At the micro level, the scale of production reduction of marginal enterprises is limited, and it is difficult to reverse the oversupply expectation. The downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the export order - signing is light [38]. - **Outlook**: Although the production reduction of marginal enterprises is small, the profit of PVC is poor, and the market will mainly wait and see, with cautious downward space. 3.1.17 Caustic Soda - **View**: With low valuation and weak expectations, caustic soda may fluctuate weakly. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the boost from the "anti - involution" sentiment to low - valuation varieties may be short - term. At the micro level, the decline in liquid chlorine prices has pushed up the cost of caustic soda, and there is an expectation of production reduction, but the actual production reduction has not been implemented. The fundamentals are under pressure, but the profit is poor [40]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are under pressure, but the profit is poor. The market will mainly wait and see, with cautious downward space. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Data on cross - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [42]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is given, including the latest values, change values, and the number of warehouse receipts [43]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Data on cross - variety spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are presented, including the latest values and change values [44]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring There is no specific content provided in the text for further summary. 3.3 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures is 2258.84, with an increase of 0.17%; the commodity 20 index is 2585.31, with no change; the industrial product index is 2184.69, with an increase of 0.24%; the PPI commodity index is 1354.37, with a decrease of 0.35% [284]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on December 15, 2025, is 1093.87, with a daily increase of 0.69%, a 5 - day decrease of 1.53%, a 1 - month decrease of 4.93%, and a year - to - date decrease of 10.92% [285].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although geopolitical premiums have disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export - price support willingness [3]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market will enter a short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and expected port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The supply is at a high level, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. With improved demand and expected seasonal decline in supply, the overall supply - demand situation has improved. There is support from export policies and costs, and it's recommended to consider buying at low prices [9][10]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is taken, suggesting short - term operations and holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the industry has low comprehensive profits, but high supply and weak domestic demand. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on rallies in the medium term [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair. It's possible to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [19]. - For polyethylene, the price of crude oil may have bottomed out, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It's recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [28]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase and the demand will decline due to the off - season. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is expected to improve but the inventory build - up cycle will continue. There is a risk of a rebound due to unexpected maintenance [33]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 0.40 yuan/barrel, a 0.09% decline, at 436.50 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed gasoline inventory decreased by 0.23 million barrels, diesel increased by 0.34 million barrels, fuel oil increased by 0.69 million barrels, naphtha decreased by 0.32 million barrels, and aviation kerosene increased by 0.74 million barrels. The total refined oil inventory increased by 1.22 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy View**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, and it's recommended to wait and see [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu, Lunan, and Inner Mongolia decreased, while those in Henan and Hebei remained unchanged. The main futures contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 2074 yuan/ton, with a basis of +31. MTO profit was 32 yuan [5]. - **Strategy View**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market will enter a short - term consolidation. The port inventory will continue to decline, but there is still pressure in the future. The supply is at a high level, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shanxi decreased, while those in Shandong and Hebei remained unchanged. The main futures contract rose 4 yuan/ton to 1629 yuan/ton, with a basis of 61 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy View**: The market is oscillating higher. With improved demand and expected seasonal decline in supply, the overall supply - demand situation has improved. There is support from export policies and costs, and it's recommended to consider buying at low prices [9][10]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillated. Exchange RU inventory warrants were low, and there was buying demand for winter storage. As of December 12, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong increased, and that of semi - steel tires decreased. As of December 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory increased [11]. - **Strategy View**: A neutral approach is taken, suggesting short - term operations and holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract rose 95 yuan to 4315 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 increased by 80 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 79.4%, a 0.5% decline. The downstream operating rate was 48.9%, a 0.2% decline. Factory inventory increased by 1.8 tons, and social inventory remained unchanged [14]. - **Strategy View**: The industry has low comprehensive profits, but high supply and weak domestic demand. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on rallies in the medium term [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price also remained unchanged. The spot price of styrene remained unchanged, and the futures price rose. Upstream operating rate decreased, and Jiangsu port inventory increased. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate increased [18]. - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair. It's possible to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract rose 71 yuan/ton to 6557 yuan/ton. The spot price remained unchanged, and the basis weakened. Upstream operating rate decreased slightly. Production enterprise inventory increased, and trader inventory decreased. The downstream average operating rate decreased [21]. - **Strategy View**: The price of crude oil may have bottomed out, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It's recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract rose 125 yuan/ton to 6254 yuan/ton. The spot price remained unchanged, and the basis weakened. Upstream operating rate increased. Production enterprise and trader inventory decreased, and port inventory increased. The downstream average operating rate increased slightly [24]. - **Strategy View**: In a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract rose 24 yuan to 6810 yuan. PX CFR rose 2 dollars. China's PX load decreased slightly, and Asia's increased slightly. Some overseas devices restarted, and some were under maintenance. PTA load remained unchanged, and some devices were under maintenance. Import volume decreased year - on - year, and inventory increased month - on - month [27]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract rose 14 yuan to 4628 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 10 yuan. PTA load remained unchanged, and some devices were under maintenance. The downstream load decreased. The social inventory decreased slightly. The spot and futures processing fees decreased [29]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is expected to increase and the demand will decline due to the off - season. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract rose 24 yuan to 3651 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 43 yuan. The supply - side load decreased. Some domestic and overseas devices were under maintenance. The downstream load decreased. The import arrival forecast was 15.5 tons, and the port inventory increased by 2.5 tons [32]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is expected to improve but the inventory build - up cycle will continue. There is a risk of a rebound due to unexpected maintenance [33].

经历了2024年的低速增长后，PVC行业在2025年再度迎来投产高峰。截至目前，年内已新增产能220万 吨，增速接近8%，行业有效总产能也随之突破2900万吨。预计年底前，浙江嘉化30万吨乙烯法产能有 望投产。展望2026年，预计国内仅有嘉化这30万吨产能有望实现量产，并无其他新增计划；国外方面， 预计也仅有阿联酋35万吨产能计划于2026年底投产。综合来看，全球PVC产能扩张进程已步入尾声。 从实际产量看，2025年1—11月，国内PVC累计产量达2232万吨，同比增长4.35%。其中，电石法产量累 计同比增长1.95%，乙烯法产量则大幅增长11.48%。由于年内新增产能主要集中于乙烯法装置，因此供 应端增量压力也主要来自乙烯法装置。尽管PVC单产品亏损有所扩大，但在氯碱板块整体尚有利润的情 况下，2025年以来，PVC行业平均开工率维持在中性偏高水平，且整体高于去年同期。 PVC需求主要集中在房地产与基建领域，其中与房地产的关联尤为紧密。今年1—10月，全国房地产开 发投资完成额同比下降14.7%；房屋施工面积同比下降9.4%，新开工面积下降19.8%，竣工面积下降 16.9%；商品房销售面积同比下降6. ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-12 需求提振有限，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11220元/吨，较前交易日变动-90.00元/吨，幅度-0.80%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.28元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.01元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+60，较前交易日变动+100；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.55元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.11元/公斤，现货基差LH03+330，较前交易日变动+200；四 川地区外三元生猪价格11.93元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH03+710，较前交易日变动+190。 据农业农村部监测，12月11日"农产品批发价格200指数"为129.45，比昨天下降0.01个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为132.20，比昨天下降0.01个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.62元/公斤，比昨天下降1.5%；牛肉65.95 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；羊肉62.24元/公斤，比昨天下降0.8%；鸡蛋7.47元/公斤，比昨天下降0.4%；白条鸡17.72 元/公斤，比昨天下降1.6%。 市场 ...