Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2510 are oscillation, oscillation, and weak oscillation respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA60 line, with the core logic being the weak supply - demand pattern and the oscillatory operation of steel prices [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. Although the supply has shrunk, the profit per ton of the variety is acceptable, so the reduction space is limited. Demand continues the seasonal weakness, and the downstream shows no improvement. Market sentiment has improved, and raw material price increases provide cost support. However, the weak fundamentals during the off - season limit the upward drive, and steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate, with attention on demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Time Cycle and View - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak oscillation. The view reference is to focus on the support at the MA60 line, and the core logic is the weak supply - demand pattern and the oscillatory operation of steel prices [2]. Market Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. Supply has shrunk but the profit per ton restricts further reduction. Demand is seasonally weak, and the downstream situation is not improving. Market sentiment has improved, and raw material price increases support costs. However, the weak off - season fundamentals result in limited upward drive, and steel prices are expected to oscillate, with demand performance being a key factor [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts are still good. Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil from last week, but it's not advisable to chase the price at present. Hold short - term long positions. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have upward potential [2] - For methanol, suggest short - term unilateral observation and pay attention to the positive spread opportunity of inter - month spread after the improvement of supply and demand [4] - For urea, the domestic urea faces a pattern of low valuation and weak supply - demand. The price will remain range - bound before substantial positive factors appear. It's recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [6] - For rubber, it's expected that the rubber price will fluctuate and consolidate. It's advisable to wait and see temporarily. Partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [10][13] - For PVC, due to the reality of strong supply, weak demand and high valuation, the fundamentals are poor. It's recommended to wait and see [15] - For benzene - ethylene, the long - term BZN may recover. When the inventory destocking inflection point appears, the benzene - ethylene price may rebound [17][18] - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction shifts from the cost - led downward trend to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy. The polyethylene price may fluctuate upward [20] - For polypropylene, it's recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [21] - For PX, the valuation is currently at a neutral level. The terminal and polyester are expected to continue to recover. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the arrival of the peak season [23] - For PTA, the supply - side destocking pattern has been formed, and the processing fee is expected to continue to repair. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX after the improvement of downstream performance in the peak season [25] - For ethylene glycol, the supply is still in excess. The mid - term port inventory is expected to enter a restocking cycle. The valuation has a downward pressure in the mid - term [26] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of last Friday, WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.29, or 0.46%, to $63.77; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.12, or 0.18%, to $67.79; INE main crude oil futures rose 2.30 yuan, or 0.47%, to 487 yuan [1] - **Data**: In the European ARA weekly data, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.03 million barrels to 8.73 million barrels, a 0.29% decrease; diesel inventory increased by 1.27 million barrels to 15.16 million barrels, a 9.13% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.11 million barrels to 6.64 million barrels, a 1.60% decrease; naphtha inventory decreased by 0.75 million barrels to 4.97 million barrels, a 13.07% decrease; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 0.17 million barrels to 7.45 million barrels, a 2.27% increase; the total refined oil inventory increased by 0.55 million barrels to 42.95 million barrels, a 1.31% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 22, the 01 contract fell 20 yuan/ton to 2405 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 110 [4] - **Supply and Demand**: Coal prices are rising, costs are increasing, and domestic production has bottomed out and is rising. Overseas device operation has returned to medium - high levels, and subsequent imports will also increase rapidly. The port MTO device is shut down and is expected to resume at the end of the month. Traditional demand is currently weak. The market still has expectations for the peak season and the return of MTO, and the futures price shows signs of stabilizing, but the port inventory is still rising rapidly [4] - **Strategy**: Suggest short - term unilateral observation and pay attention to the positive spread opportunity of inter - month spread after the improvement of supply and demand [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 22, the 01 contract fell 25 yuan/ton to 1739 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 19 [6] - **Supply and Demand**: Daily production is at a high level, and enterprise profits are at a low level. Supply pressure still exists. The start - up of compound fertilizer and melamine has declined, and agricultural demand has entered the off - season. Domestic demand lacks support as a whole, and exports are continuing. Port inventory has risen again, and the current demand variable mainly lies in exports [6] - **Strategy**: The domestic urea faces a pattern of low valuation and weak supply - demand. The price will remain range - bound before substantial positive factors appear. It's recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded after a decline, following the collective rebound of industrial products [9] - **Supply and Demand**: Bulls believe that the weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may help a limited increase in rubber production. The seasonal pattern usually turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that the macro - economic outlook is uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the positive impact on supply may be less than expected [10] - **Inventory**: As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.278 million tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons or 0.85% from the previous period. As of August 17, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 485,400 (- 18,000) tons [12] - **Strategy**: It's expected that the rubber price will fluctuate and consolidate. It's advisable to wait and see temporarily. Partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [13] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 15 yuan to 5019 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4740 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 279 (- 15) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 141 (- 9) yuan/ton [15] - **Supply and Demand**: The cost of calcium carbide has increased, and the overall PVC operating rate has decreased. The downstream operating rate has also decreased. Factory inventory has decreased, and social inventory has increased. Enterprises' comprehensive profits are at a high level within the year, the valuation pressure is large, the number of maintenance is small, and production is at a historical high. Domestic downstream operating rates are at a five - year low, and export expectations have weakened after the determination of India's anti - dumping tax rate [15] - **Strategy**: Due to the reality of strong supply, weak demand and high valuation, the fundamentals are poor. It's recommended to wait and see [15] Benzene - Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price have both risen, and the basis has weakened [17] - **Supply and Demand**: The macro - economic sentiment in the market is good, and there is still support from the cost side. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with a large upward repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and the operation of benzene - ethylene has been continuously rising. The port inventory of benzene - ethylene has continued to accumulate significantly. At the end of the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S has fluctuated and increased [17][18] - **Strategy**: The long - term BZN may recover. When the inventory destocking inflection point appears, the benzene - ethylene price may rebound [18] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has risen. The main contract closed at 7386 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7290 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. The basis was - 96 yuan/ton, weakening by 4 yuan/ton [20] - **Supply and Demand**: The market is looking forward to favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is still support from the cost side. The spot price has risen, and the downward valuation space of PE is limited. The overall inventory is being reduced from a high level, and the demand side, such as the raw material preparation for agricultural films, has started to stock up, and the overall operating rate has stabilized with low - level fluctuations [20] - **Strategy**: The long - term contradiction shifts from the cost - led downward trend to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy. The polyethylene price may fluctuate upward [20] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has fallen. The main contract closed at 7038 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7050 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 12 yuan/ton, strengthening by 10 yuan/ton [21] - **Supply and Demand**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate may gradually recover, and the supply of propylene will gradually return. The downstream operating rate is fluctuating at a low level. There are only 450,000 tons of planned production capacity to be put into operation in August. The seasonal peak season may be coming, but under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [21] - **Strategy**: It's recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [21] PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 8 yuan to 6966 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 3 dollars to 857 dollars. The basis was 79 yuan (+ 20), and the 11 - 1 spread was 66 yuan (- 2) [23] - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate in China and Asia has increased. Some overseas devices have restarted. The PTA operating rate has decreased, and there have been many unexpected short - term maintenance cases. The import volume of South Korean PX to China in the first and middle of August has increased year - on - year. The inventory at the end of June has decreased month - on - month [23] - **Strategy**: The valuation is currently at a neutral level. The terminal and polyester are expected to continue to recover. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the arrival of the peak season [23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 8 yuan to 4868 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 60 yuan/ton to 4870 yuan. The basis was 22 yuan (+ 15), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 20 yuan (- 6) [25] - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA operating rate has decreased, and there have been many unexpected short - term maintenance cases. The downstream operating rate has increased, and the terminal operating rate has also increased. The social inventory has decreased [25] - **Strategy**: The supply - side destocking pattern has been formed, and the processing fee is expected to continue to repair. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX after the improvement of downstream performance in the peak season [25] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract rose 1 yuan to 4474 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 7 yuan to 4518 yuan. The basis was 92 yuan (+ 2), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 54 yuan (0) [26] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply - side operating rate has increased, and many domestic and overseas devices have restarted or adjusted their loads. The downstream operating rate has increased, and the terminal operating rate has also increased. The import arrival forecast is 54,000 tons, and the port inventory has decreased by 6000 tons [26] - **Strategy**: The supply is still in excess. The mid - term port inventory is expected to enter a restocking cycle. The valuation has a downward pressure in the mid - term [26]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][7][10] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the global supply - demand pattern has shifted from loose to tight, but the market doubts the tight pattern. In China, short - term supply shortage supports cotton prices, but weak downstream demand limits the upside. In the medium - term, new cotton listing will suppress prices [2] - For sugar, the Brazilian sugar market has complex changes in exports. The domestic sugar market faces pressure from imported sugar, but potential delays in the new sugar - making season may lead to a price increase in the fourth quarter [4][6][7] - For pulp, the supply pressure remains in the second half of 2025, and the demand is weak both at home and abroad. The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [9][10] Summary by Product Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 14,100 yuan/ton yesterday, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day. Spot: 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 15,080 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the national average was 15,243 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton. India will exempt cotton import tariffs from August 19 - September 30 [1] Market Analysis - International: USDA cut global cotton production and ending stocks, but the market doubts the tight pattern, and ICE cotton is in a shock range. Domestic: Zhengzhou cotton rose with the external market. Short - term supply shortage supports prices, but weak downstream demand limits the upside. Medium - term, new cotton listing will bring new pressure [2] Strategy - Neutral. Low inventory and upcoming textile peak season support prices, but policy regulation and long - term industrial factors limit the upside [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,661 yuan/ton yesterday, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.19%) from the previous day. Spot: Sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,980 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,855 yuan/ton. In July 2025, Brazilian sugar exports decreased, while ethanol exports increased [4] Market Analysis - International: Brazilian sugar production and crushing data are mixed, and some institutions are lowering Brazilian sugar production estimates. Domestic: The sales progress of domestic sugar has slowed down, and the pressure of imported sugar is increasing [6] Strategy - Neutral. Pressured by processed sugar supply, Zhengzhou sugar will oscillate. In the medium - term, low inventory and potential delays in the new sugar - making season may lead to a price increase in the fourth quarter [7] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2511 contract closed at 5,178 yuan/ton yesterday, down 74 yuan/ton (-1.41%) from the previous day. Spot: Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,850 yuan/ton; Russian needle pulp was 5,200 yuan/ton. The imported wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some prices following the decline of the futures [8] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, wood pulp imports increased, and domestic production capacity will be put into operation in the second half. Port inventory is high, and supply pressure remains. Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the US, and weak domestic demand due to the off - season. Terminal demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited [9] Strategy - Neutral. The pulp market fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [10]

Group 1: Tariff Impact and Market Reaction - The U.S. President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper derivatives starting August 1, leading to a significant drop in COMEX copper prices and closing the arbitrage space between U.S. and London copper prices [1] - The sentiment around domestic "anti-involution" policies has cooled, resulting in a general decline in commodity prices, with the characteristics of the off-season in the non-ferrous metal sector becoming more pronounced [1] Group 2: Supply and Production Dynamics - Global copper supply remains tight, with several major copper mining companies lowering their annual production guidance due to underperformance [2] - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a year-on-year increase of approximately 300,000 tons in global concentrate production for the first five months, but refined copper production is expected to increase by only 450,000 tons due to profit pressures in the smelting segment [2] - The market anticipates a tight balance or slight shortage in the global copper market from 2025 to 2028, with expected growth in global copper mine production potentially below 1% by 2025 [2] Group 3: Processing Fees and Smelting Profitability - Antofagasta reached a copper concentrate processing fee (TC/RC) of $0.0 per thousand tons and $0.0 per pound with Chinese smelting companies for mid-2025, indicating a continued tight supply of copper concentrates [3] - Despite some smelting plants operating at a loss, the overall smelting profit has improved when accounting for by-product sulfuric acid revenue [3] Group 4: Demand Trends and Seasonal Effects - The recent U.S. tariff policy does not restrict copper raw material imports, leading to a rapid disappearance of the COMEX copper premium, with U.S. copper imports exceeding last year's levels [4] - Downstream processing enterprises are cautious about high copper prices, primarily purchasing to meet immediate needs, resulting in weak market demand [5] - The operating rate of wire and cable enterprises has dropped to around 70%, with signs of slowing progress in major power grid projects [5] Group 5: Overall Market Outlook - The supply side is becoming marginally looser due to high domestic refined copper production and steady import levels, while traditional copper-consuming industries show clear signs of off-season characteristics [6] - The pricing logic for copper is shifting from macro-driven sentiment to fundamentals, with expectations of weak copper prices in the short term due to seasonal demand fatigue and pressure from the spot market [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For pure benzene, the supply shows a slight increase with the overall supply rising due to the increase in开工率. The demand is also increasing, but the actual demand growth is slow due to low profits. There is a slight decline in port inventory this week, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve in August - September, but the improvement space is limited considering high hidden inventory and insufficient terminal demand [5]. - For styrene, the supply pressure remains high with new capacity coming online, but the demand from EPS and PS sectors has increased, and there is a de - stocking trend in inventory. The supply - demand surplus is expected to ease marginally in August - September, and attention should be paid to the implementation of new capacity and exports [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamental Information - Price: On August 18, the styrene main contract closed down 0.14% at 7,230 yuan/ton with a basis of 40 (+0 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.05% at 6,186 yuan/ton [4]. - Cost: On August 18, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 62.8 (-1.2 dollars/barrel), the WTI crude oil main contract closed at 65.9 (-1.0 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of East China pure benzene was 6,095 yuan/ton (-5 yuan/ton) [4]. - Inventory: Styrene sample factory inventory was 20.9 tons (-0.3 tons), a 1.3% de - stocking; Jiangsu port inventory was 14.9 tons (-1.0 tons), a 6.42% de - stocking; pure benzene port inventory was 14.6 tons (-1.7 tons), a 10.43% de - stocking [4]. - Supply: A new styrene plant in Shandong was put into operation, and the overall supply remained stable. The weekly styrene output was 36.9 tons (+1.0 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 78.2% (+0.5%) [4]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S varied. EPS capacity utilization rate was 58.1% (+14.4%), ABS was 71.1% (+0%), and PS was 56.7% (+1.7%) [4]. (2) Views - Pure benzene: The supply is increasing, the demand is also rising but the actual increase is slow. There is a slight de - stocking in ports this week. The supply - demand pattern shows signs of improvement in August - September, but the improvement space is limited [5]. - Styrene: The supply pressure is high, the demand has increased in some sectors, and there is a de - stocking trend. The supply - demand surplus is expected to ease marginally in August - September [6]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene & Pure Benzene Prices - Styrene futures main contract price changed from 7,238.0 to 7,240.0, a 0.03% increase; spot price changed from 7,656.0 to 7,596.0, a 0.78% decrease; basis changed from 67.0 to 40.0, a 40.30% decrease [8]. - Pure benzene futures main contract price changed from 6,179.0 to 6,189.0, a 0.16% increase; East China price changed from 6,105.0 to 6,100.0, a 0.08% decrease; South Korea FOB price changed from 732.5 to 733.5, a 0.14% increase; US FOB price changed from 799.5 to 796.5, a 0.38% decrease; China CFR price remained unchanged [8]. (2) Styrene & Pure Benzene Output and Inventory - Styrene output in China increased from 35.9 to 36.9 tons, a 2.76% increase; pure benzene output decreased from 44.6 to 44.5 tons, a 0.18% decrease [9]. - Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased from 15.9 to 14.9 tons, a 6.42% decrease; domestic factory inventory decreased from 21.1 to 20.9 tons, a 1.29% decrease; pure benzene port inventory decreased from 16.3 to 14.6 tons, a 10.43% decrease [9]. (3) Capacity Utilization Rates - For pure benzene downstream, styrene capacity utilization rate increased from 77.7 to 78.2, a 0.45% increase; caprolactam increased from 88.4 to 93.7, a 5.31% increase; phenol decreased from 77.1 to 77.0, a 0.07% decrease; aniline decreased from 73.5 to 71.6, a 1.89% decrease [10]. - For styrene downstream, EPS capacity utilization rate increased from 43.7 to 58.1, a 14.41% increase; ABS remained at 71.1, a 0.00% change; PS increased from 55.0 to 56.7, a 1.70% increase [10]. 3. Industry News - China's shale cracking raw material supply is affected by trade and capacity, pushing up naphtha costs, and China is expected to increase naphtha imports to a record 1,600 - 1,700 tons in 2025 [11]. - The global diesel shortage supports refinery profits, which has a structural impact on the crude oil and chemical chains [11]. - India is accelerating petrochemical expansion to counter China's dominant position in the global petrochemical market [11].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The industry's supply - demand pattern shows continuous capacity expansion and weak demand growth, which is consistent with previous research. There are significant differences in cost and formula among paper mills. The cash cost for enterprises to produce double - offset paper that meets the delivery standard is estimated to be in the range of 3800 - 4200 yuan/ton [3][40][42]. - After the futures are listed, double - offset paper prices face potential upward and downward risks. The downward risk comes from the negative feedback between price and cost, while the upward risk is due to the market's possible over - pessimism and high short - trading congestion [4][42][43]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - **Product Structure**: Enterprises focused on publishing have a higher proportion of natural - white paper. Orders from the publishing industry mainly require natural - white paper, while the proportion of natural - white paper in social orders is significantly lower. The difference in product structure between the north and south markets is due to order differences [8]. - **Formula**: Different enterprises have large differences in formula. With the continuous expansion of finished - paper production capacity and the slowdown of cultural - paper demand, enterprises are increasing the use of chemimechanical pulp and reducing the use of chemical pulp. Some producers in South China can make double - offset paper without adding softwood pulp [10][12]. - **Capacity and Production**: Some production lines may switch production. The overall operating level has not decreased significantly. Some enterprises achieved full production and sales in the first half of the year, while others had an operating level of about 80% - 90% [12]. - **Raw Material Procurement**: Most enterprises mainly purchase commercial pulp externally, covering mainstream softwood and hardwood brands. Some enterprises are self - sufficient in chemimechanical pulp, while others purchase it externally. It is difficult for some domestic hardwood pulp to completely replace imported hardwood pulp [15][18]. - **Product Conversion**: Converting between natural - white and high - white paper usually only requires adding bleach [20]. 3.2 Demand - **Sales Channels**: There is significant differentiation among sample enterprises. Publishing orders are mainly direct - sold, while social orders include both distribution and direct - to - printer sales [20]. - **Seasonal Demand**: The seasonal characteristics of demand are gradually being smoothed out. The consumption peak of pulp lags behind that of double - offset paper. There may be an opportunity for the strategy of going long on pulp and short on paper after downstream enterprises complete their bidding [22]. - **Policy Impact**: The "One Textbook, One Supplementary Material" policy has different impacts on publishers of different natures, mainly affecting social book - sellers. It may reduce the double - offset paper demand of private tutoring materials by about 20% - 30% [26]. - **Sales Radius**: Paper enterprises' sales can cover a radius of 500 - 800 km [26]. 3.3 Inventory - **Raw Material Inventory**: Self - produced pulp has little inventory, while the inventory days of externally purchased commercial pulp vary among enterprises, with small and medium - sized factories having shorter inventory days [27]. - **Finished - Product Inventory**: The inventory is slightly higher than last year but generally acceptable. Most enterprises' inventory levels are within one month, and they have clear inventory red lines [27]. - **Downstream Inventory**: Enterprises supplying paper to publishers usually reserve inventory in advance, with a cycle of half a year to one year. Traders may have a certain demand for stockpiling when the price reaches around 4000 yuan [29]. 3.4 Price and Cost - **Pricing Logic**: Paper mills price their products mainly based on orders and market conditions, i.e., demand - driven pricing. High inventory levels may lead to price cuts to reduce inventory [30]. - **Cost Factors**: Formula, wood - pulp self - sufficiency rate, and the presence of self - owned power plants have a significant impact on costs. A higher proportion of chemimechanical pulp and self - owned power plants can reduce costs [31]. - **Profitability**: Most producers still make a profit, while one enterprise is near the break - even point [37]. 3.5 Market Expectations - **Paper Price Outlook**: The industry's supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and most sample participants are not optimistic about paper prices. The downward space is estimated to be around 100 - 200 yuan/ton [38]. - **Futures Attitude**: The willingness of the industry to participate in futures depends on whether their products are delivery brands. Long - side acceptance willingness is relatively weak. Industry short - side forces need to see an absolute high price to enter the market, while long - side chips may come from private book - sellers and some traders with social - order resources [39].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Pure Benzene**: Supply increases slightly due to new oil - benzene device production, while hydro - benzene开工率 drops. Demand from phenol rises but is partly offset by the decline in adipic acid. Overall demand is flat. Inventory decreases at East China ports due to typhoon - affected arrivals. 8 - 9月 may see slight inventory reduction, but improvement is limited due to high hidden inventory and weak consumption [5]. - **Styrene**: Supply is sufficient with new device production and resumed operations. Demand is weak, with EPS开工率 dropping significantly and PS/ABS rising slightly. Port inventory doesn't increase but remains high. Mid - term supply pressure persists with new capacity planned. The strong pure benzene price provides some support, and the macro - environment helps sentiment, but fundamental positives are limited [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Price**: On August 12, styrene futures rose 0.99% to 7322 yuan/ton with a basis of 28 (- 27 yuan/ton), and pure benzene futures rose 0.32% to 6250 yuan/ton [4]. - **Cost**: On August 12, Brent crude closed at 64.0 (+0.1 dollar/barrel), WTI at 66.6 (+0.0 dollar/barrel), and East China pure benzene spot was 6180 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton) [4]. - **Inventory**: Styrene factory inventory was 21.1 (-0.6) million tons, a 2.71% decrease; Jiangsu port inventory was 14.9 (-1.0) million tons, a 6.42% decrease. Pure benzene port inventory was 14.6 (-1.7) million tons, a 10.43% decrease [4]. - **Supply**: A new styrene device in Shandong was put into operation. Weekly styrene output was 35.9 (-0.2) million tons, and capacity utilization was 77.7% (-1.2%) [4]. - **Demand**: Among styrene's downstream 3S, EPS capacity utilization dropped 10.6% to 43.7%, ABS rose 5.2% to 71.1%, and PS rose 1.7% to 55.0% [4]. 3.2. Industry Chain Data Monitoring - **Price**: Styrene futures and spot prices rose slightly on August 12 compared to August 11, while the basis decreased. Pure benzene futures, East China spot, and some international prices also changed, with different price differences showing various trends [8]. - **Output and Inventory**: From August 1 to August 8, styrene output decreased by 0.63% to 35.9 million tons, and pure benzene output increased by 2.36% to 44.6 million tons. Styrene and pure benzene inventories at ports and factories all decreased [9]. - **Capacity Utilization**: From August 1 to August 8, the capacity utilization of styrene and some pure - benzene downstream products changed. EPS capacity utilization dropped significantly, while ABS and PS increased [10]. 3.3. Industry News - China's shale cracking raw material supply issues may push up naphtha costs, with an expected record - high naphtha import of 16 - 17 million tons in 2025 [11]. - Global diesel shortage supports refinery profits, affecting the crude oil and chemical chains [11]. - India plans to accelerate petrochemical expansion to counter China's dominance [11]. 3.4. Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple charts showing the historical data of pure benzene and styrene prices, price differences, inventory, and capacity utilization [16][19][21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost of nickel resource supply has increased due to the restrictions on the issuance of the PNBP policy by the Indonesian government, but the production of nickel iron in Indonesia has rebounded significantly. Recently, the price of nickel iron has dropped significantly, weakening the support of raw material costs. [2] - The production profit of steel mills has improved significantly. Due to the rise in steel prices and the weak increase in raw material costs, it is expected that the output of steel mills will increase in August. [2] - As the traditional off - season for downstream consumption is coming to an end, there are optimistic expectations for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Coupled with the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern, and the market's purchasing willingness has recovered. [2] - Recently, the destocking of domestic stainless steel has been good, the market inventory pressure has been reduced, and the spot premium has risen. Technically, with a slight increase in positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. It is recommended to go long with a light position. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 65; the price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts is - 15 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 15. [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 26,366 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 581; the position volume of the main contract is 81,584 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,462. [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 103,226 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 423. [2] 现货 Market - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,600 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. [2] - The basis of the SS main contract is 220 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 65. [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,120; the total monthly output of nickel iron is 22,600 metal tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,300. [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 472.3; the monthly import volume of nickel iron is 1.0414 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 193,200. [2] - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 122,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 50; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 920 yuan/nickel point, with no month - on - month change. [2] - The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 26,900. [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.744 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 40,700; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 608,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,300. [2] - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 29,500. [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly value of new housing starts is 303.6432 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 26,800, with a month - on - month increase of 1,000. [2] - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,900; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,000. [2] Industry News - Trump announced a 100% tariff on all imported products containing semiconductors, but companies building or promising to build factories in the US are exempted. [2] - The US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff on the basis of the existing tariffs due to the continuous differences in the US - Japan trade agreement. [2] - Fed Governor Cook said the July employment report was "worrying" and might indicate a turning point in the US economy. [2] - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the supply of nickel resources, increasing costs, but the production of nickel iron in Indonesia has rebounded. [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic glass market continues to show weakness, with price adjustments observed in various regions due to supply and demand dynamics, particularly influenced by the real estate sector's ongoing downturn [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - In the Hebei region, some manufacturers have lowered prices by 1-1.5 yuan per weight box, while in South China, prices decreased by 1 yuan per weight box due to slow sales caused by heavy rain [1] - The current market is transitioning from expectation-driven to a focus on actual supply and demand fundamentals, with supply pressures increasing despite seasonal maintenance leading to some supply contraction [1] - As of July 31, 2025, the national float glass daily production reached 159,600 tons, a slight increase of 180 tons year-on-year, with total production in July at 4.91 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 4.72% and a capacity utilization rate of 79.20% [1] Impact of Real Estate Sector - The persistent downturn in the real estate sector is a key factor suppressing glass demand, with the area of completed constructions declining by 5.0% year-on-year, leading to weak growth in rigid demand for glass [1] - The current real estate situation remains bleak, with downstream processing orders showing only a slight increase, primarily driven by essential needs [1] - The average order days for float glass processing enterprises is only 9.55 days, indicating a continued low operating status [1] Inventory and Supply Chain Issues - Although glass production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.56 million weight boxes to 51.78 million weight boxes last week, significant inventory pressure remains [1] - The completion of a round of stocking in mid to late July is expected to slow down purchasing in August, with processing enterprises showing reduced willingness to accept orders due to compressed profits [1] - The market is constrained by weak spot demand and ineffective inventory transfer to downstream sectors, making it difficult for apparent inventory reductions to translate into substantial price support [1] Cost Support Factors - Rising coal and raw material prices are currently the main supportive factors for market costs, providing a bottom support for prices [1] - While the price of soda ash is steadily rising, its impact on glass production costs is limited [1] - There is a notable profit disparity among glass enterprises based on fuel types, with those using natural gas facing significant losses, while coal gas enterprises enjoy relatively better profits, complicating unified production reduction efforts [1] Market Outlook - Most institutions maintain a cautious outlook for the short-term market, with recommendations to consider low-positioned long positions while being mindful of operational risks [1] - The forecast indicates that the supply increase and weak demand in the float glass market will persist in August, with prominent inventory pressures and limited price upward movement, necessitating vigilance regarding potential price-cutting strategies for inventory clearance [1] - The focus should remain on the speed of inventory digestion and potential policy stimulus until there is a substantial improvement in demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market in the chemical sector shows a predominantly positive trend, with PTA futures experiencing a slight upward movement, indicating a potential recovery in the market [1] Cost and Profit Analysis - The cost and profit dynamics are primarily influenced by raw material prices, which are currently declining, while PVC prices have seen a slight increase, leading to improved PVC profit margins [1] Supply Side Dynamics - Recent maintenance activities at various chemical plants, including those in Ulanqab, Ordos, and others, have impacted supply. The capacity utilization rate for PVC has increased by 0.05% to 76.84% [1] Demand Side Insights - The overall operating rate of downstream products has shown a slight weekly recovery, particularly in pipe manufacturing. However, demand remains constrained due to adverse weather conditions and ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [1] Market Outlook - The outlook for August suggests continued pressure on supply and demand dynamics, with rising costs for calcium carbide and a return to a bullish trend for coking coal. The overall supply-demand balance is expected to lead to further inventory accumulation, with a recommendation to hold short positions [1]