Group 1 - The report highlights that China is transitioning from high-speed growth to high-quality growth, with economic indicators resembling the later stages of Japan's third consumption society and the brand consumption phase in the US [1] - For essential consumption, the investment strategy focuses on low-valuation, high-quality growth stocks with high dividend yields, particularly in the food and beverage and textile sectors [1] - In the optional consumption sector, there are signs of improvement in macroeconomic data, suggesting a potential turning point, with recommendations to select companies showing operational improvements based on financial reports [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that the A-share market has shown a breakthrough in indices, with a shift in style, where mid-cap indices performed strongly while large-cap indices lagged [3] - Domestic economic indicators such as CPI and PPI are showing mixed signals, with CPI returning to positive growth while PPI's decline is widening, indicating a complex economic environment [3][29] - The report suggests focusing on sectors like real estate, steel, and non-bank financials, which have been characterized as "cold" industries but are currently leading the market [3] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of the banking sector, noting that policy support and increased asset allocation from insurance companies could enhance the attractiveness of bank stocks [8] - The report identifies specific banks for investment, including Chengdu Bank and Agricultural Bank of China, based on their potential for improved asset quality and profitability [8] Group 4 - The report discusses the robotics industry, particularly the application of cycloidal reducers in humanoid robots, highlighting their advantages in torque and shock resistance [10] - Companies like Double Ring Transmission are collaborating with Tesla on developing small RV reducers, indicating a growing interest in this technology [10] Group 5 - The scientific instruments industry is characterized by a significant presence of foreign brands, with domestic brands still underrepresented, indicating a strong potential for domestic substitution [11] - The report notes that the mass spectrometry market in China is valued at 16.712 billion yuan, with foreign companies holding over 90% of the global market share, highlighting the need for domestic innovation [11]

作为资深外汇分析师，Chan 深入剖析了马来西亚央行此次降息的核心动因 —— 很可能是为了应对日益加 剧的关税风险。在全球贸易保护主义抬头的背景下，马来西亚作为外向型经济体，其出口产业极易受到关 税政策冲击。关税的提高会直接削弱马来西亚商品在国际市场的价格竞争力，导致出口下滑、经济增长承 压。央行选择在此时降息，显然是希望通过降低企业融资成本、刺激国内需求，来对冲关税风险对经济的 负面影响，为经济增长注入缓冲垫。 Juno markets发现三菱日联银行的 Lloyd Chan 在最新发布的研报中，对马来西亚央行的货币政策走向给出 了明确判断：在周三实施降息后，该国央行短期内大概率不会进一步下调政策利率。这一观点为市场理解 马来西亚的货币政策逻辑提供了重要参考，也折射出当前东南亚经济体在复杂全球环境中的政策权衡。 从宏观经济韧性来看，马来西亚近年来在产业升级、基础设施建设等方面的投入逐步显现成效，经济结构 更趋多元化，对单一出口产业的依赖度有所降低。这使得该国在面对外部冲击时，具备更强的抗风险能 力。即使关税政策引发短期出口波动，国内经济的内生增长动力也能在一定程度上抵消负面影响，为货币 稳定提供基本面支撑。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts an increase in copper imports to the U.S. ahead of the implementation of a 50% tariff, driven by traders' motivations to export before the tariff takes effect [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The report indicates that traders are accelerating shipments of copper to the U.S. in anticipation of the tariff [1] - Analysts maintain a price expectation of $9,700 per ton for LME copper by December 25, but the risk of copper prices exceeding $10,000 in the third quarter has decreased [1]

周三（7月9日）亚市盘中，美元指数小幅上涨，逼近97.70，欧元兑美元震荡走低，目前跌至1.1700关 口，英镑兑美元回落，目前交投于1.3560附近，关税风暴推动全球央行下半年分化加剧：关税风险尚未 显现，美联储秋季前或难以降息；欧元升值、出口承压或推动欧洲央行秋季降息；关税打破两难局面， 推动英国央行下半年多次降息；关税打击将推迟日本央行加息；贸易形势改善，但经济收缩风险或迫使 加拿大央行降息；澳洲联储7月利率决议意外不降息。 美联储-关税风险尚未显现秋季前或难以降息 1.美联储主席鲍威尔直言，若不是顾忌关税风险，可能早已降息。 2.高盛：预计英国央行将在8月启动降息，2025年下半年将连续降息。 3.美国银行：全球关税影响料推动英国通胀放缓，经济增长减弱；央行将在8月、9月和11月降息。 日本央行-已避免最坏情况关税打击将推迟加息 2.巴黎银行：由于存在大量未征税库存，关税对物价的直接传导效应尚不明显。预计美联储在秋季甚至 更晚之前都不会降息。 3.高盛：关税影响弱于预期，工资增长放缓和需求减弱料推动通胀回落，美联储9月降息几率略高于 50%。 欧洲央行-欧元升值、出口承压或推动秋季降息 1.6月会议纪 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, the US President's tariff plans increase short - term tariff risks, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and US bond yields, and a decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's June PMI data continues to rise, economic growth accelerates, and policies boost domestic risk appetite. Different asset classes have different short - term trends and investment suggestions [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Overall Situation**: Overseas tariff risks increase, the US dollar index and US bond yields rebound, and global risk appetite cools. Domestically, economic growth accelerates, policies boost risk appetite, and the domestic market sentiment warms up. Asset - wise, stocks are short - term bullish, bonds are high - level volatile, and different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors like photovoltaic equipment, semiconductor components, and energy metals, the domestic stock market rises. The short - term macro - upward drive weakens, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. - **Precious Metals**: They oscillate downward. The extension of Trump's tariff deadline, a strong US dollar, and changes in employment data affect the market. The "Big Beautiful Act" supports gold in the long - term, and tariff disturbances are the main short - term factor. Gold volatility is expected to rise [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets continue to oscillate. Demand is weak, supply - side production shows some changes, and cost support is strong. Short - term, it will remain range - bound [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices rebound slightly. The implementation of production - restriction policies affects supply, and attention should be paid to the change in molten iron production [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Spot prices fall slightly, and futures prices rebound. Demand is okay, but production may decline. The market is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [6]. Chemicals and Building Materials - **Soda Ash**: The main contract oscillates strongly. Supply decreases due to device maintenance, demand is at a low level, and profits decline. In the long - term, it should be short - allocated [7]. - **Glass**: The main contract price oscillates. Supply may decrease due to policy expectations, demand is weak, and profits are at a low level. Supply - side reduction expectations may support prices [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Trump's consideration of a 50% copper tariff affects prices. China's refined copper production increases, and inventory is in a good state [10]. - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to policy and market atmosphere. Fundamentals weaken, but short - term sharp decline needs macro - support [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It is in the off - season, with weak demand. Tight scrap aluminum supply supports prices, and the price is expected to be oscillatingly strong with limited upside [10]. - **Tin**: Supply recovers, and demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and upside is restricted in the medium - term [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price rises slightly. Supply has a contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality, and cost supports the price. It is expected to be oscillatingly strong [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is affected by policies and is expected to be oscillatingly strong. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the north [12]. - **Polysilicon**: Multiple contracts hit the daily limit due to anti - involution policies. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and trading margins and price limits are adjusted [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Prices rise due to the Red Sea attack and technical factors. The short - term fundamentals are stable, but inventory increases, and prices will be in a consolidation state [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price rises slightly following crude oil. Shipping volume decreases, and attention should be paid to the destocking situation in the peak season [15]. - **PX**: The strong trend weakens, and the PXN spread narrows. PTA's production recovery will support PX, and its weakening may be slower than downstream [15]. - **PTA**: The basis weakens, and trading volume recovers. The spot's impact on the futures is limited, and it will wait for cost support changes [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory accumulates, supply increases, and there may be a slight oversupply in August. Prices will remain low and oscillating [16]. - **Short - fiber**: The price moves in a range following crude oil. Terminal orders are average, inventory is high, and it will follow the polyester sector with weak oscillations [16]. - **Methanol**: Domestic maintenance and reduced arrivals support the spot, but international supply recovery and downstream maintenance plans change the supply - demand outlook. It rebounds slightly with limited upside [16]. - **PP**: Supply pressure eases, demand is in the off - season, and prices are expected to fall further [17]. - **LLDPE**: Production is high, demand is weak, and prices are under pressure with room for cost - profit compression [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price falls slightly. The planting area is determined, and weather in the growing season is crucial. Trade disputes may affect export demand [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Oil mills have high operating rates, and soybean meal supply is loose. Rapeseed meal focuses on inventory digestion and trade policies [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil inventory decreases slightly, and soybean oil supply is stable with weak consumption. They are affected by palm oil [19]. - **Palm Oil**: The price rises, and attention is paid to the BMD market and supply - demand reports. Export data is good, but production and oil prices limit the upside [19]. - **Corn**: Imported corn auctions and new wheat substitution increase supply, and futures prices are expected to weaken. However, the new - season opening price may rise [20]. - **Pigs**: Large - scale enterprises are reluctant to increase supply. Supply may decrease in July, and there is a risk of concentrated second - fattening supply in July - August, limiting price increases [21].

摘要： 上周宏观一波三折。但主要是美国就业市场的波动在主导市场。周中 ADP新增就业人数意外下降，降息显著增加、利率下行，周后期非农 就业人数却超预期强劲，失业率下降至4.1%，市场对降息预期又立刻反转。在降息预期来回摇摆的情况下，金铜价格也缺乏明显的趋势性指 引。 核心观点 1、上周贵金属偏强震荡，铜价有所回落 贵金属方面，上周 COMEX 黄金上涨 1.8%，白银 上涨 2.68%；沪金2510合约 上涨 1 .1%，沪银2508 合约上涨 1.44%。 主要工业金属价格中，COMEX铜、沪铜分别变动-1.16%、-0.24%。 2、宏观一波三折，铜价冲高回落 周初 FT报道贝森特关于美国关税的最新言论，其中提到有限国别关税、其次行业关税。市场理解为针对铜的232调查可能推 迟到9、10月份进行，铜价明显拉涨，随后中国方面明确提出过剩行业反内卷，工业品全线上行，对铜价带来提振。周中ADP 新增就业人数意外下降，降息显著增加、利率下行，铜价应声继续反弹，周后期非农就业人数却超预期强劲，失业率下降至 4.1%，市场对降息预期又立刻反转，铜价承压回落。 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 对冲研投研究院 编辑 ...

Group 1 - The currency market is signaling that the stock and bond markets, particularly the US stock market, may be significantly underestimating the risks of tariff increases after the July 9 deadline set by the Trump administration [1][2] - There is a possibility that tariffs could exceed the previously anticipated 10%, as indicated by the strengthening of currencies from countries facing tariffs against the US dollar [1][3] - The recent trade negotiations with Vietnam and India highlight that even close US trading partners may face tariffs higher than 10%, increasing risks to global trade and economic growth [1][2] Group 2 - The market may be misjudging the situation, similar to the miscalculation in March that led to a market downturn when the Trump administration's tariff policies were perceived as gradual and not severe [3][5] - The strengthening of currencies from countries facing high tariff threats suggests that investors are hedging against potential higher tariffs, indicating a disconnect between currency and equity market perceptions [3][5] - The US dollar index has weakened significantly, down 11.5% this year, reflecting market bets against the "American exceptionalism" narrative [5][6] Group 3 - There is a growing concern among investors regarding the potential for higher tariffs, with calls for risk management and hedging strategies becoming more prominent [6][7] - The situation remains uncertain, with the primary risk centered around the Trump administration's trade policy [6][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Views - Crude oil's current fundamentals are fair, but the outlook is weak, with the cost center likely to decline further in Q4 [11][15] - In H1 2025, the fuel oil market was significantly affected by geopolitical and macro - factors, with negative feedback on the high - sulfur end [11][26] - In H2 2025, the fuel oil market faces rebalancing, and structural factors still exist [11][51] - Refinery demand is under pressure; attention should be paid to demand improvement after economic viability returns [11][51] - Summer power generation demand is strong, and the substitution effect persists [11][74] - Bunker fuel demand still faces tariff risks, and the trend of consumption structure change continues [11][83] - High - sulfur fuel oil still has structural support, but OPEC's production increase has marginal negative impacts [11][102] - Low - sulfur fuel oil still has relatively abundant surplus capacity, and domestic production is expected to increase marginally [11][112] - High - sulfur fuel oil valuation still has room for correction, and the medium - term outlook for low - sulfur fuel oil remains weak [11][129] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil Market - In H1 2025, international oil prices fluctuated due to geopolitical and macro - factors. The initial price increase was followed by a decline, and then another sharp drop and rebound. The main influencing factors included US sanctions on Russia, Trump's policies, tariff conflicts, and the Israel - Iran conflict [15][16][17] - Currently, the crude oil market's fundamentals are fair, but in Q4, it is expected to enter a supply - surplus phase as OPEC's production increases and the peak demand season ends, leading to a potential weakening of cost support for downstream products [18] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Market - In H1 2025, high - sulfur fuel oil was affected by sanctions on Iran and Russia, refinery disruptions in Russia, and increased demand from power generation and countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia. However, high prices led to negative feedback, with reduced refinery demand and increased simple refinery production [27][28] - Refinery demand for high - sulfur fuel oil has declined this year due to high raw material costs and policy changes. If the cracking spread adjusts and profit margins improve, refinery procurement may increase, but China's import demand may not fully recover [51][54] - In Q3, power generation demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by seasonality and natural gas substitution, but OPEC's production increase and early procurement in Egypt may limit the upside. Demand is expected to decline significantly in Q4 [74][75] - Bunker fuel demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is affected by tariff risks. Although there was a short - term increase in Q2, the long - term outlook remains uncertain [83] - High - sulfur fuel oil has structural support from refinery upgrades and tight heavy - oil supply. However, OPEC's production increase has marginal negative impacts [102][103] - In H2, high - sulfur fuel oil needs an increase in other demand sources for market rebalancing. Refinery demand recovery is expected, but it depends on cracking spread adjustment [7][129] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Market - In H1 2025, the low - sulfur fuel oil market was less volatile than the high - sulfur market. It was affected by tariff policies, regional demand changes, and refinery production adjustments. The market structure was relatively stable [29] - Low - sulfur fuel oil has abundant surplus capacity, and supply is mainly regulated by profit margins. Global and domestic production capacity can meet demand. Domestic production is expected to increase after the end of the refinery maintenance season [112][113] - Low - sulfur fuel oil's demand is at risk due to tariff policies and faces substitution by other fuels. The medium - term outlook is weak, but the downward drive is limited due to its low valuation [8][129] Strategies - High - sulfur: Oscillate weakly - Low - sulfur: Oscillate weakly - Cross - variety: Short the FU cracking spread (FU - Brent or FU - SC) on rallies - Cross - term: Short the FU2509 - FU2510 spread on rallies - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [9]

Group 1 - Asian stock markets may struggle to achieve seasonal gains in July due to concerns over tariffs and macroeconomic conditions, with the average return for July over the past decade being 1.36% [1] - The uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations with the US is a significant barrier to maintaining past performance, as highlighted by Deutsche Bank's Chief Investment Officer [1] - The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index has risen for three consecutive months as of June, but the reinstatement of higher tariffs could lead to a sharp decline in the stock market [1] Group 2 - The third quarter presents potential risks, including higher inflation and growth slowdown, with skepticism regarding the Federal Reserve's pace of interest rate cuts [2] - If tariff outcomes are milder than expected and the Federal Reserve signals a more dovish stance, it could encourage capital inflows into Asian markets [2] - The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index has increased by 12% year-to-date, outperforming the US market, although Southeast Asian countries face significant pressure from tariff impacts [2]

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 尽管降息预期增加，但是关税风险、地缘局势在上周减少，黄金价格大幅回调。， | | | | 中长期不确定性仍然较多，长期全球秩序尚在重塑，黄金战略配置。【760-790】 | | | | 白银跟随黄金大幅调整。目前，金银比价目前回归正常区间，目前白银基本面 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 变化不大，盘面关注 8700 附近表现，考虑到白银的品种特性弹性较大，操作上 | | | | 做好仓位控制。【8600-8900】 | | | | 特朗普威胁提前任命新美联储主席，降息预期走高，美元指数走弱，铜围绕 8 万关 | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 口震荡盘整，建议前期铜多单继续持有，部分可逢高止盈兑现，警惕铜高位回落风 | | | | 险，中长期我们对铜依旧看好。沪铜关注区间【79000，81000】 | | | | 宏观和板块情绪积极，秘鲁大型锌冶炼减产，锌延续反弹，震荡走强，关注上 | | 锌 | 反弹 | 方缺口压力位，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。沪锌关注区间【22200， ...