Report Overview - **Report Name**: Baocheng Futures Treasury Bond Futures Morning Report (July 29, 2025) - **Report Type**: Futures Research Report - **Report Author**: Long Aoming - **Author Department**: Baocheng Futures Investment Consulting Department - **Author Qualification**: F3035632 (从业资格证号), Z0014648 (投资咨询证号) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term view of TL2509 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias". The overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is biased towards looseness, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Previously, due to the easing of domestic and foreign risk factors and the rapid rise in stock market risk appetite, the demand for treasury bonds was weak, and treasury bond futures were in an oscillatory adjustment. As market interest rates rose rapidly, the anchoring effect of policy rates emerged, and the upward space for treasury bond yields was limited. In the long - term, a loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, so the long - term upward basis for treasury bond futures is relatively solid. In the short - term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and treasury bond futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation trend [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **TL2509**: Short - term: oscillation; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: oscillation with a weak bias; Overall view: oscillation. Core logic: The monetary policy environment is biased towards looseness, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS. - **Intraday view**: Oscillation with a weak bias; **Medium - term view**: Oscillation; **Reference view**: Oscillation. - **Core logic**: Treasury bond futures oscillated and rose yesterday. Previously, due to the easing of domestic and foreign risk factors and the rapid rise in stock market risk appetite, the demand for treasury bonds was weak, and treasury bond futures were in an oscillatory adjustment. As market interest rates rose rapidly, the anchoring effect of policy rates emerged, and the upward space for treasury bond yields was limited. In the long - term, a loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, so the long - term upward basis for treasury bond futures is relatively solid. In the short - term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and treasury bond futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation trend [5].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown significant performance, with a recent price increase and strong liquidity, indicating a positive market sentiment towards long-term government bonds [3][4]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of July 28, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera rose by 0.38%, reaching a price of 110.89 yuan, with a one-year cumulative increase of 10.21% as of July 25, 2025 [3]. - The ETF's latest scale reached 14.24 billion yuan, marking a one-year high, and the number of shares reached 12.9 million, also a one-year high [4]. - Over the past week, the ETF experienced a net inflow of 5.353 billion yuan, with a maximum single-day inflow of 1.51 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The bond futures market saw collective gains, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.5%, indicating a favorable environment for long-term bonds [3]. - According to Citic Securities, factors such as rising inflation expectations and a loose funding environment are driving the current adjustments in bond market interest rates [3]. Group 3: Risk and Return Analysis - The ETF has a maximum drawdown of 6.89% since inception, with a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05% [5]. - The ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year government bond index, which reflects the overall performance of corresponding maturity government bonds [5].

30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约日内涨超0.50%，现报118.72元。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic economy continued to recover in the first half of the year, with GDP growing by 5.3% year-on-year and a 1.1% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q2, providing strong support for the full - year GDP growth target of around 5%. In June, industrial production increased slightly, while fixed - asset investment and social retail sales declined slightly, and the unemployment rate remained stable at a low level. However, the price level was under pressure, with PPI in the negative growth range for seven consecutive months, indicating insufficient demand and supply - demand imbalance. In terms of financial data, social financing grew more than expected, credit demand improved marginally, and deposit activation increased. Against the backdrop of the stable economic development in the first half of the year, the urgency of large - scale incremental policies in the second half may decrease [93]. - In the overseas market, the US July S&P Global Composite PMI rebounded more than expected, with strong growth in the service sector, indicating that the economy's internal momentum remains resilient. The labor market is stable, with the number of initial jobless claims reaching the lowest level since April. Trade tensions have eased, with recent trade agreements between the US and Japan and progress in US - EU tariff negotiations. However, the independence of US policies is challenged as the US president visited the Fed to pressure for interest rate cuts, increasing concerns about the politicization of monetary policy. Given the strong economic data, the probability of an interest rate cut in the short term is further reduced, and policy path uncertainty may increase [93]. - Affected by policy themes such as "anti - involution" and Yajiang Water Conservancy Project construction, the equity market continued to strengthen, and the bond market continued to adjust, with long - term bonds performing significantly worse than short - term bonds. If the relevant details of the "anti - involution" policy are further introduced, it will continue to put pressure on the bond market in the short term. Due to the weak economic recovery and loose liquidity, the adjustment space for long - term bonds may be limited, and interest - rate bonds are likely to continue the pattern of weakening in a volatile manner. It is necessary to focus on the sustainability of the strong performance of risk assets. Operationally, it is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short term and allocate after the market stabilizes [94]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures main contracts fell by 2.05%, 0.61%, 0.43%, and 0.13% respectively. The trading volumes of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all decreased, as did their open interests [11][15][30]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Market Review**: The trading volumes and open interests of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all decreased [30]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - **Key News Review**: As of the end of Q2, the balance of RMB real - estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The balance of individual housing loans was 37.74 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. Foreign investment in RMB bonds increased, with the total amount of foreign - held RMB bonds exceeding $600 billion. Foreign investment in domestic stocks improved, with a net increase of $10.1 billion in stocks and funds in H1, and a net increase of $18.8 billion in May and June. Vice - Premier He Lifeng will go to Sweden for Sino - US economic and trade talks from July 27 - 30. The 2025 central budgetary investment of 735 billion yuan has been basically allocated, focusing on modern industrial systems, infrastructure, new urbanization, and rural revitalization. The Ministry of Commerce will take measures to combat strategic mineral smuggling. The US - Japan trade agreement was reached, with the US reducing the "reciprocal tariff" on Japan from 25% to 15%, and Japan increasing US rice imports and investing $550 billion in the US. The US July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.5, while the service and composite PMIs reached new highs since December 2024 [33][34]. 3.3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year yields, and between 10 - year and 1 - year yields widened slightly. The spread between 2 - year and 5 - year main contracts widened, while the spread between 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts narrowed. The 10 - year contract's inter - period spread widened slightly, the 30 - year contract's inter - period spread narrowed slightly, and the 2 - year and 5 - year contracts' inter - period spreads widened [42][46][52]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net long positions of the top 20 holders of the T main contract increased slightly [62]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: Overnight Shibor, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month interest rates all increased, and the weighted average DR007 rate rebounded to around 1.65%. The yields of Treasury bonds weakened, with 1 - 7Y yields rising by 3.5 - 7.3bp, and 10Y and 30Y yields rising by 5.9bp and 6.3bp to 1.74% and 1.96% respectively. The spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields narrowed slightly [66][70]. - **Central Bank Open - Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 1.6563 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases, 400 billion yuan in MLF injections, with 1.7268 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases and 200 billion yuan in MLF maturing, resulting in a net injection of 109.5 billion yuan. The weighted average DR007 rate rebounded to around 1.51% [73]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bonds worth 1.578232 trillion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 1.757588 trillion yuan, resulting in a net financing of - 179.357 billion yuan [77]. - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1419, with a cumulative increase of 79 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB weakened. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield and the VIX index both decreased slightly. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield increased significantly, and the A - share risk premium increased [82][87][90]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategies - The domestic economy continues to recover, but the price level is under pressure. Overseas, the US economy is resilient, but policy uncertainty increases. Affected by policy themes, the bond market continues to adjust. It is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short term and allocate after the market stabilizes [93][94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 24, Treasury bond spot yields weakened collectively, with 1 - 7Y maturity yields rising by about 2.75 - 3.60bp, and 10Y and 30Y yields rising by about 3.15bp to 1.74% and 1.95% respectively. Treasury bond futures closed down collectively, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts falling by 0.07%, 0.21%, 0.29%, and 0.91% respectively. The central bank continued net withdrawals, and affected by the capital gap, the weighted average rate of DR007 climbed to around 1.57% [2]. - Domestically, in June, industrial added - value increased slightly, fixed - asset investment and social retail sales decreased slightly, and the unemployment rate remained low. In terms of financial data, social financing increased more than expected, credit demand improved marginally, and the degree of deposit activation increased. Overseas, the US and Japan reached a trade agreement, easing global trade tensions. Recently, Fed officials' statements showed increased internal divergence on the impact of tariffs on the inflation path, but the policy tone remained cautiously watchful, and there was no consensus on interest - rate cuts, reducing the possibility of a short - term rate cut [2]. - Catalyzed by policy themes such as "anti - involution" and Yajiang water conservancy construction, the equity market continued to strengthen, and the bond market continued to adjust. The long - end performance was significantly weaker than the short - end. If more detailed rules related to "anti - involution" are introduced, it will continue to pressure the bond market in the short term. Affected by the weak economic recovery and loose liquidity, the adjustment space of long - term bonds may be limited, and interest - rate bonds are likely to continue the pattern of oscillating weakness. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the strong performance of risk assets. Operationally, it is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short term and choose the opportunity to allocate after stabilization [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Futures Prices and Volumes - T main contract closed at 108.220, down 0.29%, with a trading volume of 90,744 contracts, a decrease of 675 contracts [2]. - TF main contract closed at 105.585, down 0.21%, with a trading volume of 88,969 contracts, a decrease of 666 contracts [2]. - TS main contract closed at 102.304, down 0.07%, with a trading volume of 55,229 contracts, a decrease of 417 contracts [2]. - TL main contract closed at 118.250, down 0.92%, with a trading volume of 152,329 contracts, a decrease of 275 contracts [2]. 3.1.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2509 spread was - 0.20, down 0.03; T09 - TL09 spread was - 10.03, up 0.72 [2]. - T2512 - 2509 spread was 0.03, down 0.05; TF09 - T09 spread was - 2.64, up 0.09 [2]. - TF2512 - 2509 spread was 0.08, unchanged; TS09 - T09 spread was - 5.92, up 0.22 [2]. - TS2512 - 2509 spread was 0.09, up 0.01; TS09 - TF09 spread was - 3.28, up 0.13 [2]. 3.1.3 Futures Positions - T main contract open interest was 196,329 contracts, an increase of 2,431 contracts. The top 20 long positions were 201,483 contracts, an increase of 3,049 contracts; the top 20 short positions were 194,743 contracts, an increase of 1,102 contracts; the net short position of the top 20 was - 6,740 contracts, a decrease of 1,947 contracts [2]. - TF main contract open interest was 159,796 contracts, an increase of 1,940 contracts. The top 20 long positions were 165,141 contracts, an increase of 4,183 contracts; the top 20 short positions were 176,706 contracts, an increase of 1,546 contracts; the net short position of the top 20 was 11,565 contracts, a decrease of 2,637 contracts [2]. - TS main contract open interest was 106,090 contracts, a decrease of 974 contracts. The top 20 long positions were 80,831 contracts, an increase of 926 contracts; the top 20 short positions were 90,943 contracts, a decrease of 2,360 contracts; the net short position of the top 20 was 10,112 contracts, a decrease of 3,286 contracts [2]. - TL main contract open interest was 122,606 contracts, an increase of 2,694 contracts. The top 20 long positions were 126,655 contracts, an increase of 3,656 contracts; the top 20 short positions were 126,589 contracts, an increase of 2,682 contracts; the net short position of the top 20 was - 66 contracts, an increase of 974 contracts [2]. 3.2 Bond Market 3.2.1 CTD Bonds - The net prices of CTD bonds such as 220010.IB (6y), 250007.IB (6y), 240020.IB (4y) all declined [2]. 3.2.2 Active Treasury Bonds - Yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year active Treasury bonds all increased, with increases of 1.50bp, 1.85bp, 2.25bp, 1.15bp, and 1.40bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates 3.3.1 Short - term Interest Rates - Overnight silver - pledged repo rate was 1.5412%, up 15.12bp; Shibor overnight was 1.6350%, up 26.80bp [2]. - 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.5800%, down 2.00bp; Shibor 7 - day was 1.5450%, up 8.20bp [2]. - 14 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.6500%, up 5.00bp; Shibor 14 - day was 1.6150%, up 8.80bp [2]. 3.3.2 LPR Rates - The 1 - year LPR was 3.00%, unchanged; the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 331 billion yuan, and the maturity scale was 450.5 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 119.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will go to Switzerland from July 27th to 30th for economic and trade talks with the US [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the draft amendment to the Price Law, further clarifying the criteria for identifying improper price behavior [2]. - Hainan Free Trade Port will start the full - island customs closure operation on December 18th this year, and the proportion of "zero - tariff" commodity tariff items for "first - line" imports will increase from 21% to 74% [2]. 3.6 Key Data to Watch - At 20:15 on July 24th, the European Central Bank will announce its interest - rate decision [3]. - At 20:30 on July 24th, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 19th will be released [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. For specific products: The investment outlook for stock index futures is "volatile and bullish"; for stock index options, it is "volatile"; for treasury bond futures, it is "volatile and cautious" [6]. Core Viewpoints - The stock market should be treated positively. There's no need to overly worry about the market adjustment. The policy is being implemented, there is potential for unentered funds to enter, and global stock market sentiment is positive. The bond market sentiment remains weak, with many short - term negative factors, especially for the long - end [1][6][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index failed to hold above 3600 points, and the CSI 2000 Index pulled back nearly 1%. The adjustment was due to factors like large profit - taking and limited imagination for certain sectors. However, it's not the start of a market downturn. Policy is being implemented, unentered funds will enter, and global stock markets are positive. The operation suggestion is to hold positions, specifically the IM contract [1][6]. Stock Index Options - Yesterday, the option market turnover was 8.96 billion yuan, a 27.48% increase from the previous trading day. The trading volume of call options increased, and both buyers and sellers did not price in many negative factors. They saw the intraday pullback as a chance to bet on an up - move. The short - term strategy is to set up a bull spread, and the medium - term is to maintain a covered call strategy and add positions during the volatility increase [2][6]. Treasury Bond Futures - Yesterday, treasury bond futures closed down. The bond market sentiment is weak due to the rising risk appetite in the market and the stock - bond seesaw effect. The afternoon stock market adjustment may have boosted the bond market, but the bullish sentiment is unstable. The capital cost increased, and the bond market should be treated with caution, especially the long - end. Attention should be paid to long - end short - hedging operations and the signals from the Politburo meeting at the end of July [7][8]. 2. Economic Calendar - On July 21, 2025, China's 1 - year and 5 - year loan prime rates remained unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively. China's June全社会用电量 annual rate was 5.4%, higher than the previous value of 4.4% [10]. 3. Important Information and News Tracking - **Food Delivery**: Shanghai market regulators interviewed food delivery platforms. The platforms have implemented three rectifications. The new Anti - Unfair Competition Law will be implemented on October 15, and the Shanghai market regulator has carried out legal publicity [10]. - **Anti - Involution**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will adjust the price limit, margin, and trading fees for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures contracts from July 25, 2025 [11]. - **Artificial Intelligence**: The Shanghai Stock Exchange conducted a special research on Shanghai's "Model Speed Space" and held a symposium on Shanghai's artificial intelligence industry chain enterprises [11]. - **Stablecoins**: The Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority wrote about stablecoins, emphasizing the need to strengthen the discussion and implement the Stablecoin Ordinance [11]. 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions the monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures data, but specific data summaries are not provided in the content [12][16][28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and overall view of TL2509 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - For the main varieties of financial futures (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". In the short term, the Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term, medium - term, and overall view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the short - term possibility of interest rate cuts is low [1]. Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - Yesterday, Treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly corrected, showing a trend of hitting the bottom and then rebounding. Due to the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, the strong resilience of China's macro - economy in the first half of the year, and the continuous increase in the stock market's risk appetite from the capital side, Treasury bond futures corrected in the short term [5]. - The market interest rate has risen to near the policy rate, and the room for further increase is limited, so the downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. There is still a problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, and a loose monetary environment is needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, with an expectation of interest rate cuts. However, the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low, and the 7 - month LPR remains unchanged, so the upward space for Treasury bond futures in the short term is also limited [5].

General Information - Report Date: July 23, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] - Report Type: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] Report Highlights Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the bond market lacks a clear direction due to stable fundamentals, policy, and capital conditions, along with elevated market risk appetite. Long - term, there may be an increase in monetary easing in October, but there's a risk of a bond market trend reversal if anti - involution effectively boosts domestic demand and inflation [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The marginal improvement in inter - bank liquidity continued, but the sharp rise in A - shares, especially the strength of cyclical stocks, significantly suppressed the bond market, and the decline of treasury bond futures widened in the afternoon [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: Yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities increased. Short - term yields changed slightly, while long - term yields rose by about 1 - 2bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.689%, up 1.2bp [9] - **Funding Market**: The funding situation was stable. There were 462.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 214.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 247.7 billion yuan. Short - term funding rates declined, and medium - and long - term funding remained stable [10] 2. Industry News - **LPR**: The LPR quotes in July remained stable, with the 1 - year LPR at 3% and the over - 5 - year variety at 3.5% [13] - **Sino - EU Relations**: European Council President Costa and European Commission President von der Leyen will visit China on July 24 [13] - **Central Bank Policy**: The central bank solicited public opinions on canceling the regulation on freezing bond repurchase collateral, mainly to enhance bond liquidity and optimize the central bank's monetary policy operation mechanism [13] - **Business and Trade**: The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US approval of the sale of NVIDIA H20 chips to China and Canada's tightened steel import restrictions [13] - **Infrastructure Project**: The construction ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan. The China Yajiang Group Co., Ltd. was established [14] - **G20 Meeting**: At the third G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting, China stated that it would implement a more proactive fiscal policy and expand high - level opening - up in the second half of the year [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Data on trading, including prices, trading volumes, and open interest of various treasury bond futures contracts on July 22 were presented, as well as information on spreads between different contracts and their trends [6] - **Money Market**: Data on SHIBOR, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rates, and other money market indicators were covered [29][33] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves was provided [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view on Treasury bond futures is that they will be in a stage of oscillatory adjustment in the short term, with an oscillatory trend in the medium - term and an oscillatory - weakening trend in the intraday period. The monetary policy environment is inclined to be loose, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory - weakening. The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the short - term possibility of an interest rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is oscillatory - weakening, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and corrected yesterday, with the 30 - year Treasury bond futures having the largest decline. Recently, due to a large number of reverse repurchase maturities, the central bank's open - market operations have mainly been net withdrawals. The domestic macro - economic outlook is positive, the economic data in the first half of the year showed resilience, and the pressure for stable growth in the second half of the year has decreased. The risk appetite in the securities market has rapidly recovered, causing Treasury bond futures to enter an oscillatory adjustment stage. However, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates is strong, and the market interest rate is close to the policy interest rate, so the upward space for the market interest rate is limited. The problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and a relatively loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half of the year. There is still an expectation of an interest rate cut, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low, so the downward space for interest rates is also limited [5].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown a slight decline recently but has experienced an overall increase in value year-to-date, indicating a mixed performance in the bond market influenced by liquidity and monetary policy adjustments [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 22, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera is priced at 111.84 CNY, down 0.18% [3]. - Year-to-date, the ETF has appreciated by 1.68% as of July 21, 2025 [3]. - The ETF has seen a trading volume of 38.74 billion CNY with a turnover rate of 40.3%, indicating active market participation [3]. Group 2: Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The liquidity in the market has been affected by tax-related disruptions, but the central bank's operations, including regular OMO and reverse repos, have provided support [4]. - Short-term bond performance remains strong, while long-term bonds are under pressure due to improved economic data and supply-side pressures [4]. Group 3: Fund Size and Inflows - The latest size of the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has reached 9.618 billion CNY, marking a one-year high [4]. - The ETF has seen a net inflow of 5.56 billion CNY over the past three days, with a peak single-day inflow of 475 million CNY [4]. Group 4: Historical Performance Metrics - Over the past year, the ETF has achieved a net value increase of 13.15%, ranking 6th out of 414 index bond funds [5]. - The maximum monthly return since inception is 5.35%, with a historical one-year profitability rate of 100% [5]. - The fund's management fee is 0.15%, and the tracking error over the past month is 0.032% [5].