Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.03%, the 10-year main contract unchanged, the 5-year main contract down by 0.01%, and the 2-year main contract down by 0.01% [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly rose, with the 10-year China Development Bank bond "25国开15" yield increasing by 0.1 basis points to 1.8610%, while the 10-year government bond "25附息国债16" yield remained unchanged at 1.7900% [1] - The 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债06" yield rose by 0.1 basis points to 2.1410%, and the 1-year government bond "25附息国债13" yield increased by 1.5 basis points [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 117.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on November 4, with a fixed rate of 1.40% and a bid amount of 117.5 billion yuan [2] - On the same day, 475.3 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 357.8 billion yuan [2] - The interbank funding conditions remained stable and loose, with overnight repurchase rates for deposit institutions slightly rising and hovering around 1.31% [2] Operational Recommendations - In October, the central bank purchased 20 billion yuan in bonds, which was below expectations, leading to a neutral impact on the bond market [3] - The bond market may enter a waiting phase due to a short-term policy vacuum, with overall market sentiment improving and bond yield fluctuation ranges expected to decrease [3] - It is suggested that investors consider buying on dips and look for opportunities in positive spread strategies due to rising IRR [3]

Global Asset Market Performance - 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies: US 4.086, UK 4.424, France 3.437, Germany 2.653, Italy 3.399, Spain 3.158, Switzerland 0.087, Greece 3.275, Japan 1.664, Brazil 6.102, China 1.793, South Korea 3.086, Australia 4.350, New Zealand 4.101 [2] - 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies: US 3.577, UK 3.778, Germany 1.994, Japan 0.936, Italy 2.170, South Korea 2.661, Australia 3.616 [2] - USD exchange rates against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.401, South Africa zar 17.512, South Korean won 1440.400, Thai baht 32.550, Malaysian ringgit 4.197 [2] - RMB exchange rates: on - shore RMB 7.130, off - shore RMB 7.135, RMB central parity rate 7.089, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.983 [2] - Major economy stock indices: S&P 500 6771.550, Dow Jones Industrial Average 47085.240, Nasdaq 23348.640, Mexican stock index 62390.730, UK stock index 9714.960, France CAC 8067.530, Germany DAX 23949.110, Spanish stock index 16036.400, Japanese Nikkei 51497.200, Hang Seng Index 25952.400, Shanghai Composite Index 3960.186, Taiwan stock index 28116.560, South Korean stock index 4121.740, Indian stock index 8241.911, Thai stock index 1298.600, Malaysian stock index 1623.500, Australian stock index 9098.190, emerging - economy stock index 1393.380 [2] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing prices: A - shares 3960.19, CSI 300 4618.70, SSE 50 3012.97, ChiNext 3134.09, CSI 500 7210.83 [3] - Percentage changes: A - shares - 0.41%, CSI 300 - 0.75%, SSE 50 - 0.11%, ChiNext - 1.96%, CSI 500 - 1.67% [3] Valuation - PE (TTM): CSI 300 14.17, SSE 50 11.90, CSI 500 32.85, S&P 500 28.15, Germany DAX 19.81 [3] - Month - on - month changes: CSI 300 - 0.03, SSE 50 0.06, CSI 500 - 0.54, S&P 500 - 0.34, Germany DAX - 0.15 [3] Risk Premium - 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate: S&P 500 - 0.53, Germany DAX 2.39 [3] - Month - on - month changes: S&P 500 0.07, Germany DAX 0.05 [3] Fund Flows - Latest values: A - shares - 1494.83, Main board - 996.44, ChiNext - 379.93, CSI 300 - 239.09 [3] - 5 - day averages: A - shares - 667.86, Main board - 481.75, ChiNext - 120.57, CSI 300 - 107.90 [3] Transaction Amount - Latest values: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets 19157.58, CSI 300 5051.78, SSE 50 1310.58, Small and medium - sized board 3848.70, ChiNext 4768.17 [4] - Month - on - month changes: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets - 1913.73, CSI 300 - 524.25, SSE 50 - 35.79, Small and medium - sized board - 310.45, ChiNext - 589.85 [4] Main Contract Basis - Basis: IF - 29.70, IH - 4.77, IC - 116.23 [4] - Basis spreads: IF - 0.64%, IH - 0.16%, IC - 1.61% [4] Treasury Futures Trading Data - Closing prices: T2303 108.66, TF2303 106.03, T2306 108.40, TF2306 105.99 [4] - Percentage changes: T2303 - 0.02%, TF2303 - 0.02%, T2306 - 0.01%, TF2306 - 0.01% [4] Fund Rates - Rates: R001 1.3621%, R007 1.4584%, SHIBOR - 3M 1.5940% [4] - Daily changes: R001 - 10.00 BP, R007 0.00 BP, SHIBOR - 3M - 1.00 BP [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The TL2512 variety is expected to be volatile in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with a short - term weakening tendency. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the overall reference view is volatile. The core logic is that the price and employment sub - indices of the October manufacturing PMI data were weak, along with weak inflation and credit data, indicating insufficient effective domestic demand. A moderately loose monetary environment is needed in the long - run to support the demand side, which strongly supports bond futures. However, it is relatively easy to achieve the annual growth target this year, so the possibility of an overall interest rate cut in the short - term is low, and the upward momentum of bond futures is limited. In general, bond futures will mainly move in a volatile range in the short - term [5]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Variety Views Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is weakly volatile, and the overall view is volatile. The core logic is the change in interest rate cut expectations [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the overall reference view is volatile. The driving logic is based on the weak economic data and the situation of achieving the annual growth target [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Tuesday saw short - term weakness and long - term strength in the Treasury bond market. The central bank's restart of Treasury bond trading is expected to inject stable liquidity, boosting bond market sentiment. The positive progress in Sino - US trade talks has reduced market disturbances. The market anticipates that the central bank will mainly purchase medium - and short - term bonds, which may lead to a decline in short - term interest rates and potentially long - term rates as well. However, the potential suppression of long - term rates due to the recovery of risk appetite should be watched out for. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价108.660，环比0%；成交量66835，环比增加933。TF主力收盘价106.030，环比 - 0.01%；成交量50509，环比减少2173。TS主力收盘价102.498，环比 - 0.01%；成交量19329，环比减少5311。TL主力收盘价116.520，环比0.03%；成交量86971，环比减少11856 [2]. 3.2 Futures Spread - TL2512 - 2603价差0.25，环比增加0.01；T12 - TL12价差 - 7.86，环比减少0.03。T2512 - 2603价差0.26，环比减少0.01；TF12 - T12价差 - 2.63，环比不变。TF2512 - 2603价差0.05，环比减少0.01；TS12 - T12价差 - 6.16，环比不变。TS2512 - 2603价差0.04，环比增加0.00；TS12 - TF12价差 - 3.53，环比不变 [2]. 3.3 Futures Position - T主力持仓量240832，环比减少3036；T前20名多头234667，环比增加2353；T前20名空头253814，环比增加2422；T前20名净空仓19147，环比减少1488。TF主力持仓量149798；TF前20名多头139385，环比减少45；TF前20名空头160251，环比增加10；TF前20名净空仓20866，环比增加55。TS主力持仓量70457，环比减少709；TS前20名多头64962，环比减少540；TS前20名空头74541，环比减少8；TS前20名净空仓9579，环比增加532。TL主力持仓量134287，环比减少3487；TL前20名多头133484，环比减少884；TL前20名空头151049，环比减少1420；TL前20名净空仓17565，环比减少536 [2]. 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Price) - 220017.IB(4y）净价106.7266，环比减少0.0192；220019.IB(4y）净价99.0955，环比减少0.0190。250003.IB(4y）净价99.6713，环比减少0.0117；240020.IB(4y)净价100.8844，环比减少0.0202。250017.IB(1.7y)净价100.0353，环比减少0.0110；250012.IB(2y)净价100.0453，环比减少0.0160。210005.IB(17y)净价131.5531，环比增加0.0439；210014.IB(18y)净价127.8009，环比减少0.0022 [2]. 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1y收益率1.3850%，环比增加0.50bp；3y收益率1.4175%，环比增加0.75bp；5y收益率1.5350%，环比增加0.50bp；7y收益率1.6395%，环比增加0.95bp；10y收益率1.7900%，环比减少0.25bp [2]. 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜利率1.3066%，环比增加0.66bp；Shibor隔夜利率1.3150%，环比减少0.10bp。银质押7天利率1.4058%，环比减少2.42bp；Shibor7天利率1.4150%，环比增加0.30bp。银质押14天利率1.4400%，环比减少1.00bp；Shibor14天利率1.4780%，环比增加0.90bp [2]. 3.7 LPR Rates - 1y LPR为3.00%，环比不变；5y LPR为3.5%，环比不变 [2]. 3.8 Open Market Operations - 发行规模1175亿，环比减少3578亿；到期规模4753亿；利率1.4%，期限7天 [2]. 3.9 Industry News - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The composite PMI output index was 50%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. - The US Treasury Secretary said that if China continues to block rare - earth exports, the US may impose additional tariffs on China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that dialogue and cooperation are the right ways, while threats and pressure do not help solve problems. - The Ministry of Finance updated its official website, listing the Debt Management Department under the "Ministry Agencies". The department is responsible for formulating and implementing government domestic debt management systems and policies, etc. [2]. 3.10 Key Points to Watch - On November 5th at 21:15, the US ADP employment figures for October will be released. - On November 6th at 22:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest - rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report [3].

Core Viewpoint - Since October, the prices of government bond futures have shown a strong upward trend, reversing the weak performance of the third quarter, primarily due to the central bank's increased open market operations and the resumption of government bond trading, leading to a more relaxed market liquidity environment [1][29]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The average daily trading volume of government bond futures in October was 318,100 contracts, a decrease of 13.76% month-on-month, mainly due to the National Day holiday [4]. - The average open interest increased by 10.49% month-on-month to 678,000 contracts, indicating strong hedging demand in the market [4]. - The central bank's open market operations have resulted in a slight net injection of liquidity, maintaining a relatively stable overall funding rate [4][22]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. ADP employment figures for September showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, which was below expectations and previous values, leading to increased risk aversion [8]. - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, slightly above the previous value but below market expectations, indicating moderate inflation [8]. - The central bank's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on October 29 was influenced by the soft employment data and the government shutdown, which affected the release of several economic indicators [8]. Group 3: Policy and Future Outlook - The central bank has resumed government bond trading operations to stabilize market expectations and enhance liquidity, which is expected to support government bond prices [26][27]. - The central bank is likely to continue implementing a supportive monetary policy stance, providing both short-term and long-term liquidity arrangements to maintain relatively loose financing conditions [27]. - Despite achieving consensus in U.S.-China trade negotiations, external uncertainties remain, and the domestic economy is facing challenges, particularly in the real estate sector, which continues to show weakness [29].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2512 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", with an overall view of "oscillation" due to a decline in short - term interest rate cut expectations and the existence of long - term easing expectations [1]. - For major Treasury bond futures varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall view is "oscillation". In the long - run, there is still an expectation of loose domestic monetary policy, but the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short - term is low. Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short - term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, short - term: oscillation; medium - term: oscillation; intraday: oscillation with a weak bias; overall view: oscillation. The core logic is a decline in short - term interest rate cut expectations and the existence of long - term easing expectations [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated. In the long - run, there is an expectation of loose domestic monetary policy, but the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short - term is low. The price index and employment index sub - items of the latest manufacturing PMI data are weak, indicating insufficient effective domestic demand. A loose monetary environment is needed in the long - run to stabilize the demand side, which strongly supports Treasury bond futures. However, it is not difficult to achieve this year's growth target, and monetary policy usually cooperates with fiscal and industrial policies. So, the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short - term [5].

1. Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.111, UK 4.434, France 3.443, Germany 2.666, Italy 3.409, Spain 3.168, Switzerland 0.102, Greece 3.283, Japan 1.663, Brazil 6.085, China 1.791, South Korea 3.083, Australia 4.336, New Zealand 4.085 [1] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.606, UK 3.790, Germany 2.004, Japan - (not provided), Italy 2.172, China (1Y yield) - (not provided), South Korea 2.661, Australia 3.591 [1] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.359, South Africa zar 17.319, South Korean won 1430.950, Thai baht 32.463, Malaysian ringgit 4.200 [1] - The latest values of on - shore RMB 7.121, off - shore RMB 7.127, RMB central parity rate 7.087, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.975 [1] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices: S&P 500 6851.970, Dow Jones Industrial Average 47336.680, NASDAQ 23834.720, Mexican stock index 62153.300, UK stock index 9701.370, French CAC 8109.790, German DAX 24132.410, Spanish stock index 16037.000, Japanese Nikkei 26158.360, Hang Seng Index 26158.360, Shanghai Composite Index 3976.521, Taiwan stock index 28334.590, South Korean stock index 4221.870, Indian stock index 8275.084, Thai stock index 1308.860, Malaysian stock index 1622.420, Australian stock index 9182.495, emerging - economy stock index 1410.430 [1] - The credit bond indices of major economies are not provided (all values are -) [1] 2. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 3976.52, up 0.55%; CSI 300 closing price 4653.40, up 0.27%; SSE 50 closing price 3016.35, up 0.16%; ChiNext closing price 3196.87, up 0.29%; CSI 500 closing price 7333.60, up 0.04% [2] - Valuation: PE (TTM) of CSI 300 is 14.20 (with a 0.09环比 change), SSE 50 is 11.84 (0.07环比 change), CSI 500 is 33.39 (- 0.01环比 change), S&P 500 is 28.50 (0.04环比 change), German DAX is 19.96 (0.14环比 change) [2] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.60 (- 0.04环比 change), German DAX is 2.34 (- 0.07环比 change) [2] - Fund flow: The latest value of A - share fund flow is - 150.03, main board is - 63.81, ChiNext is - 32.07, CSI 300 is 0.06; the 5 - day average values are - 516.08, - 413.23, - 51.63, - 96.92 respectively [2] 3. Transaction Data of Stock Index Futures and Treasury Bond Futures - Transaction amount: The latest transaction amount of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 21071.31, with a - 2106.61环比 change; CSI 300 is 5576.03 (- 1231.09环比 change), SSE 50 is 1346.37 (- 346.49环比 change), small - and - medium - sized board is 4159.15 (- 433.18环比 change), ChiNext is 5358.02 (- 557.27环比 change) [3] - Main contract basis: IF basis is - 18.60 (- 0.40%), IH basis is 0.25 (0.01%), IC basis is - 94.00 (- 1.28%) [3] - Treasury bond futures: T2303 closing price is 108.68 (0.00% change), TF2303 is 106.05 (- 0.01% change), T2306 is 108.41 (- 0.01% change), TF2306 is 106.00 (- 0.01% change) [3] - Fund rates: R001 is 1.3646% (- 13.00 BP change), R007 is 1.4604% (- 3.00 BP change), SHIBOR - 3M is 1.5950% (0.00 BP change) [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the stock index futures market showed a structural differentiation trend. The market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term. The economic fundamentals are resilient, and the non - manufacturing sector is expanding, with generally optimistic corporate expectations. However, manufacturing slowdown, external uncertainties, and high valuation levels may affect market confidence and limit the upside space of the index [28][29] - It is recommended to maintain a neutral mindset, pay attention to layout opportunities after market adjustments, and closely track subsequent economic data and policy trends [30] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: In October, A - share major indices showed differentiation. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.85% and had a 6 - month consecutive positive line, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both fell by over 1%. Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 futures (IF) was basically flat, the CSI 500 futures (IC) and CSI 1000 futures (IM) closed slightly lower, and the SSE 50 futures (IH) performed outstandingly [5] - **Bond Futures**: In October, all bond futures closed higher. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year bond futures had monthly increases of 2.44%, 0.77%, 0.41%, and 0.17% respectively [6] 2. Fundamental Analysis - In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points, entering the expansion range. The composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points, indicating overall stable corporate production and business activities [7][9][12] 3. Valuation Analysis - As of October 31, the PE and PB of major indices such as the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, along with their percentile positions, showed that the overall market valuation attractiveness was limited [13] - The "total market capitalization/GDP" ratio's percentile in historical data was close to 90%, indicating that the overall market valuation pressure still existed [26][28] 4. Other Data - **Stock - Bond Yield Spread**: There are two formulas for calculating the stock - bond yield spread, using the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio and the dividend yield respectively [21] - **China - Buffett Indicator**: The "total market capitalization/GDP" ratio was 89.80% on November 31, 2025, with a high percentile in historical data, suggesting relatively high market valuation [26] 5. Comprehensive Analysis and Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term. Positive factors include economic resilience, non - manufacturing expansion, and positive policy signals. Negative factors include manufacturing slowdown, external uncertainties, and high valuation levels [28][29] 6. Operation Suggestions - **Overall Strategy**: Maintain a neutral mindset, pay attention to layout opportunities after market adjustments, and closely track economic data and policy trends [30] - **Specific Operations**: For single - side trading, buy on dips but beware of valuation risks; for arbitrage, participate in the IM/IH spread convergence strategy and pay attention to style - switching signals; for options, use covered call writing to increase returns or buy put options to hedge against volatility risks [31]

Group 1: Economic Growth and Trade - China's economic growth target for 2025 is set at around 5% [2] - GDP growth rates for the first three quarters were 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8%, with an average of 5.2% [2] - Domestic fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year from January to September [2] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year-on-year during the same period, indicating steady domestic demand [2] - Exports rose by 6.1% year-on-year from January to September, aided by the easing of US-China trade tensions [2][3] Group 2: US-China Trade Relations - A meeting between the US and Chinese leaders on October 30 resulted in the cancellation of a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and a one-year suspension of a 24% tariff [3] - The easing of trade tensions has alleviated market concerns and increased risk appetite, contributing to a rise in the Shanghai Composite Index above 4000 points [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Market Expectations - The necessity for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut has decreased, with the current RRR at 9% [4] - The likelihood of further RRR cuts this year is low due to the current economic conditions and the easing of trade tensions [4] - The central bank has resumed trading in government bonds, which serves as an alternative to RRR cuts for liquidity management [4] - Increased operations in reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF) indicate a compensatory measure for the market [4] - Overall, the expectation of monetary easing is diminishing, leading to a potential decline in government bond futures prices in the fourth quarter [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term view of TL2512 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias". The overall view is "oscillation" as the short - term interest rate cut expectation decreases while the medium - and long - term loose expectation still exists [1]. - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The PMI data in October showed weakening, and the lack of effective domestic demand remains. In the long run, a loose monetary environment is needed, and the central bank's stance provides support for treasury bond futures. However, the short - term need for an overall interest rate cut is not strong, so the short - term upward momentum is insufficient, and the short - term movement range is limited, mainly in oscillation [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and overall view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias". The core logic is the change in interest rate cut expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The driving factors include the weakening of October's manufacturing PMI data, the problem of insufficient domestic demand, the need for a loose monetary environment in the long run, and the low short - term need for an overall interest rate cut [5].