Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Gold prices continued to decline on Wednesday, affected by the rebound of the US dollar and the rise of US Treasury yields, and then rebounded slightly after the release of weak US new home sales data. The improvement of market risk appetite weakened the safe - haven demand for gold, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the weak dollar limited the further decline of gold prices [3]. - The US economic fundamentals are mixed. The manufacturing and service industries in the US are developing differently in July, with manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations and service PMI exceeding expectations. The number of initial jobless claims in the week of July 19 was better than expected, while new home sales in June were lower than market expectations. The European Central Bank maintained the main interest rate at 2% as expected [6]. - In the long - term, gold is still bullish due to the risks in the tariff, geopolitical and monetary systems in 2025. However, the short - term market risk - on sentiment suppresses its upward momentum. For silver, it is expected to remain strong in the medium - to - long - term based on the bullish outlook for gold, and the current domestic anti - involution and infrastructure projects may boost its elasticity [6]. 3) Summary by Related Content Key Information - China - EU relations are at a critical historical juncture, with more cooperation than competition. The EU is close to reaching a trade solution with the US, and has approved counter - tariff measures on $109 billion of US goods in case of negotiation breakdown [2]. - The European Central Bank maintained the interest rate unchanged after eight consecutive interest rate cuts in a year, waiting for more clear signals on the EU - US trade relationship [2]. - The US economic data shows that in July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (expected 52.7, previous 52.9), the service PMI was 55.2 (expected 53, previous 52.9), the number of initial jobless claims in the week of July 19 was 217,000 (expected 226,000, previous 221,000), and new home sales in June were 627,000 (expected 650,000, previous 623,000) [2]. Price Logic - Gold prices fell to around $3,360 per ounce, mainly due to the rebound of the US dollar and the rise of US Treasury yields. The improvement of market risk appetite weakened the safe - haven demand for gold, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the weak dollar limited the decline [3]. Outlook - Pay attention to US real - estate data, the Fed's interest - rate expectations and changes in trade frictions. The weekly COMEX gold price range is expected to be between $3,250 and $3,450 [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views - **Gold**: Short - term outlook is bearish, with short - term decline, medium - term consolidation, and intraday consolidation with a weak bias. The key factor is that the gradual reaching of US foreign tariff agreements leads to a rise in market risk appetite, which is negative for gold prices [1][3]. - **Copper**: Short - term outlook is bullish, with short - term and medium - term increases, and intraday consolidation with a strong bias. After the market digests the impact of US tariffs, the improvement of domestic and foreign macro - economies boosts copper prices [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold (AU) - **Price Performance**: This week, the gold price first rose and then fell. New York gold once approached the $3450 mark, and faced strong technical resistance at this level in the second quarter. Yesterday, it maintained a weak trend and dropped to the $3350 mark [3]. - **Market News**: The EU and the US are about to reach a trade agreement with a 15% tariff on European imports. Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan on the 22nd, with a 15% tariff on Japan and $550 billion of Japanese investment in the US. China's Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27th to 30th. As key countries reach or are close to reaching agreements with the US, market uncertainty decreases, and risk appetite rises, which is negative for gold [3]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that the gold price will maintain a weak trend [3]. Copper (CU) - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the copper price first rose and then fell. Technically, LME copper faces some pressure at the $10,000 mark, and SHFE copper faces pressure at the 80,000 yuan mark [4]. - **Macro - level**: Overseas, the implementation of the US foreign tariff policy has led to a recovery in market risk appetite. In China, the short - term bullish sentiment has cooled, and the willingness of bulls to close positions has increased [4]. - **Industry - level**: The inventory of electrolytic copper is low in China and high abroad, the futures price is strong in China and weak abroad. It is expected that the SHFE - LME ratio will continue to strengthen, and import profits will widen. Short - term attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 80,000 - yuan mark, and the support of the 10 - day moving average can be watched below [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term view is bearish, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The market risk preference is rising due to the gradual reaching of US foreign tariff agreements, which is negative for gold prices [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term view is bullish, the medium - term view is bullish, and the intraday view is rising. The US foreign tariff policies are gradually implemented, and the inventory and price structure of electrolytic copper suggest that the short - term focus is on the long - short game at the 80,000 - yuan mark [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: This week, the gold price broke through the July oscillation high, with New York gold approaching the $3450 mark, but it dropped significantly at midnight last night [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The EU and the US are about to reach a trade agreement, and the US has reached a trade agreement with Japan. China's vice - premier will hold economic and trade talks with the US. The reduction of uncertainties may lead to a continuous rise in global market risk preference, which is negative for gold prices. In the long run, gold prices have been oscillating at high levels since the relaxation of US tariff policies in April [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the intraday copper price decreased with reduced positions, and the overall non - ferrous metals showed a downward trend. After the Asian session, LME copper continued to rise, and SHFE copper in the domestic night session once approached the 80,000 - yuan mark and then oscillated and declined [5]. - **Driving Factors**: At the macro level, the US foreign tariff policies are gradually implemented, and the market risk preference is rising. Domestically, the short - term bullish sentiment has cooled. At the industrial level, the inventory of electrolytic copper is low in China and high abroad, and the futures price is strong in China and weak abroad. The SHFE - LME ratio is expected to continue to strengthen, and the import profit will expand [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The latest news indicates that the US and the EU are close to reaching a 15% tariff agreement, leading to a significant recovery in market risk appetite and a weakening of the US dollar index [2][13]. - The market risk preference remains high, with US stock index futures continuing to rise, and gold and US Treasuries experiencing corrections. However, due to the weak performance of the US real - estate market and uncertainties in US - EU negotiations, there is a need to be cautious about callback risks [18]. - The bond market is unlikely to have a trend - based performance in the near term. Long - position holders are advised to sell on rebounds, and cash bond positions can consider hedging strategies [3]. - For agricultural products, the situation varies. For example, the demand for soybean meal is good, and it is advisable to buy on dips; the palm oil market is affected by supply - side factors in Indonesia; the corn starch industry may face continued losses; and for corn, old - crop prices are expected to remain stable until new - crop harvest [24][26][31][34]. - In the black metal sector, the price of thermal coal is expected to rebound in the short term; iron ore prices are overvalued and show differentiation; and coking coal prices are affected by both macro and fundamental factors, with a need to be cautious after a sharp increase [28][29][36]. - In the non - ferrous metal sector, the price of lithium carbonate is affected by supply - side disturbances; the fundamentals of lead are improving; copper prices are likely to remain high and volatile in the short term; zinc prices are expected to continue the upward trend in the short term; and nickel prices may follow the overall non - ferrous metal trend in the short term but face supply - side pressure in the medium term [38][39][45][48][52]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term; PX prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term; PTA prices may follow the overall domestic commodity trend; and the situations of other products such as caustic soda, pulp, PVC, bottle chips, soda ash, and float glass also have their own characteristics and corresponding investment suggestions [53][55][57]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Russia and Ukraine will hold a new round of negotiations. The Russian delegation led by Vladimir Medinsky went to Turkey to meet the Ukrainian delegation led by Rustem Umerov. The meeting is expected to start in the evening [11]. - Trump said that the US and the EU reached an agreement on military aid to Ukraine, where the EU will pay for all military equipment and distribute it, with most going to Ukraine [12]. - The US and the EU are close to reaching a 15% tariff agreement, which will reduce the possibility of trade conflicts between them, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite and a weakening of the US dollar index. It is recommended that the US dollar index will weaken in the short term [13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US existing - home sales dropped to a nine - month low in June, with the annualized total of existing - home sales decreasing by 2.7% month - on - month to 393,000 units, lower than the expected 400,000 units, and the supply of existing - home sales can last for 4.7 months, the highest since July 2016 [15]. - Google's second - quarter earnings exceeded expectations, and it increased its annual capital expenditure to $85 billion from the previously expected $75 billion [16]. - The US and the EU are close to reaching a trade agreement, and the negotiation is positive. The market risk preference remains high, but due to the weak real - estate market and uncertainties in the negotiation, there is a need to be cautious about callback risks [18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 150.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 23, with a net withdrawal of 369.6 billion yuan due to the maturity of 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases. The bond market is unlikely to have a trend - based performance in the near term. Long - position holders are advised to sell on rebounds, and cash bond positions can consider hedging strategies. Short - term trading long - position holders can close their positions after the Politburo meeting [20][21]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA will release the weekly export sales report on Thursday. Analysts expect the net increase in US soybean export sales for the week ending July 17 to be between 350,000 and 850,000 tons. - Argentina crushed 4.055 million tons of soybeans in June, producing 788,000 tons of soybean oil and 3.021 million tons of soybean meal. The demand for soybean meal is good, and it is advisable to buy on dips and not chase high prices [22][23][24]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - MPOA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 11.24% month - on - month. GAPKI data shows that Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased to 2.96 million tons in May. The palm oil market is affected by supply - side factors in Indonesia, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the transfer of plantation operating rights on the production - increasing season [25][26]. 2.3 Black Metal (Thermal Coal) - Zheng Shanjie emphasized promoting the improvement of involution - style competition and expanding industrial chain and supply - chain cooperation. The port spot coal price is rising moderately, and it is expected to continue the rebound trend in the short term due to the high market sentiment and rigid demand [27][28]. 2.4 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Vale's second - quarter production and sales report shows stable performance. The price of iron ore is overvalued, and it is recommended to wait and see due to the possible compression of price space by the increase in coal prices and weak terminal demand [29]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has decreased, and inventory has been reduced. However, the industry may face continued losses, and the operating rate is expected to remain low and volatile [30][31]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern port decreased, while that in the southern port increased. The price of old - crop corn is expected to remain stable until new - crop harvest, and early - entered short positions of new - crop corn can be held, with attention to rebound - adding opportunities [33][34]. 2.7 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Linfen market is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply of coking coal is recovering slower than expected, and demand is strong. After a sharp increase, it is necessary to be cautious about risks [35][36]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - Zimbabwe's lithium spodumene exports increased by 30% in the first half of 2025. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading fee standard for lithium carbonate futures contracts. The price of lithium carbonate is affected by supply - side disturbances, and it is recommended to reduce positions or wait and see [37][38]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lead) - On July 22, the [LME0 - 3 Lead] was at a discount of $25.4 per ton. The fundamentals of lead are improving, and it is recommended to consider buying on dips in the short term [39]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metal (Copper) - Glencore plans to suspend copper smelting in northern Queensland; Askari found high - grade copper mineralization in Ethiopia; MMG's copper production in the second quarter increased by 54% year - on - year; the global copper market had a surplus of 97,000 tons in May. Copper prices are likely to remain high and volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [40][41][42][43][44][45]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metal (Zinc) - On July 22, the [LME0 - 3 Zinc] was at a discount of $4.23 per ton. MMG's zinc mine production in the second quarter increased by 12% year - on - year. Zinc prices are expected to continue the upward trend in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for the overall situation and consider near - month spread arbitrage [46][47][48][49]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metal (Nickel) - Vale's nickel production in the second quarter reached a new high since 2021. The price of nickel may follow the overall non - ferrous metal trend in the short term but face supply - side pressure in the medium term [50][52]. 2.13 Energy and Chemical (Crude Oil) - EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased. Crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, waiting for new driving factors [53][54]. 2.14 Energy and Chemical (PX) - On July 23, the PX price was slightly weaker. The cost support is insufficient, but the bottom is supported. The PX price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [55][56]. 2.15 Energy and Chemical (PTA) - The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased significantly in the afternoon of the previous day. PTA prices may follow the overall domestic commodity trend in the short term [57][58]. 2.16 Energy and Chemical (Caustic Soda) - On July 23, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong fluctuated. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is stable. The upward space of caustic soda prices is limited after the basis of the 09 contract is completed [59][60]. 2.17 Energy and Chemical (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market is rising, but high - price transactions are difficult. The pulp price is rising due to policy and coal price factors, but the upward space is limited due to the unchanged supply - demand situation [61][62]. 2.18 Energy and Chemical (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in the domestic market is consolidating. The PVC price is rising with the overall commodity market, but the inventory is increasing, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices [63]. 2.19 Energy and Chemical (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories are mostly stable with partial slight increases. The industry is implementing production cuts, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding processing fees by buying on dips [64][65][66]. 2.20 Energy and Chemical (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash from Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical is stable. The soda ash futures price decreased slightly, and the market sentiment is weakening. It is recommended to operate cautiously and wait for policy guidance [67]. 2.21 Energy and Chemical (Float Glass) - The price of 5mm float glass in Hubei increased by 1.5 on July 23. The glass futures price increase narrowed. It is recommended to operate cautiously on a single - side basis and focus on arbitrage strategies such as buying glass and shorting soda ash [68].

Report Date - The report is dated July 23, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core View - The prices of treasury bond futures generally declined on the previous trading day, with the T2509 contract down 0.11% and the open interest decreasing. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates fluctuated, and key - term treasury bond yields at home and abroad changed. The external "equal - tariff" policy increased global economic uncertainty, and the central bank would maintain a supportive monetary policy, causing increased volatility in treasury bond futures prices under the short - term improvement in market risk appetite [2][3] Key Points by Category Treasury Futures Market - **Price and Yield Changes**: The prices of treasury bond futures generally fell on the previous trading day, with T2509 down 0.11%, TS2509 down 0.01%, TF2509 down 0.07%, etc. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] - **Open Interest and Volume**: The open interest of TS2509 decreased by 2,462, TF2509 decreased by 3,177, while T2509 increased by 1,115. The trading volume of each contract also showed different changes [2] - **Spread Changes**: The inter - delivery spread of TS2509 decreased from - 0.068 to - 0.078, TF2509 decreased from - 0.070 to - 0.085, and T2509 decreased from - 0.040 to - 0.060 [2] Short - term Market Interest Rates - **Domestic Short - term Rates**: SHIBOR overnight decreased by 4.9bp to 1.3170, SHIBOR 7 - day decreased by 1.5bp to 1.4620, DR001 decreased by 4.13bp to 1.3599, etc. [2] Spot Market - Domestic Key - term Treasury Bond Yields - **Yield Changes**: The 10Y treasury bond yield increased by 1.43bp to 1.69%, the 5Y increased by 1.39bp to 1.56%, and the 2Y decreased by 0.24bp to 1.39% [2] - **Yield Spread**: The 10 - 2Y treasury bond yield spread was 27.76bp [2] Overseas Market - Key - term Treasury Bond Yields - **Yield Changes**: The US 10Y treasury bond yield decreased by 3bp to 4.35%, the German 10Y decreased by 2bp to 2.680%, and the Japanese 10Y decreased by 1.8bp to 1.510% [2] Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On July 22, the central bank conducted 214.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, while 342.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits matured [3] - **Real Estate Loans**: At the end of the second quarter, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%, and the balance of personal housing loans was 37.74 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [3] - **Foreign Investment Policy**: The State Administration of Foreign Exchange plans to fully cancel the registration of foreign direct investment in domestic reinvestment nationwide [3] - **International Events**: Trump announced a large - scale agreement with Japan, and the US Treasury Secretary mentioned possible discussions on China's oil purchases from Russia and Iran in the new round of Sino - US negotiations [3] Industry Information - **Domestic Money Market Rates**: On July 22, most domestic money market rates declined, such as the 1 - day silver inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted average rate down 4.65bp to 1.3144% [3] - **US Treasury Bond Yields**: US treasury bond yields declined across the board, with the 2 - year yield down 2.31bp to 3.8292% and the 10 - year yield down 3.17bp to 4.344% [3] Market Comments and Strategies - **Market Conditions**: The long - end of domestic treasury bonds continued to decline, the central bank's open - market operations continued to have a net withdrawal, and the Shibor short - end varieties declined collectively. The US consumer confidence index reached a five - month high, and the 5 - year inflation expectation was at a five - month low. The Fed was under pressure to cut interest rates [3] - **Economic Data**: The second - quarter GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with industrial added value, exports, and financial data better than expected, while consumption, investment, and real estate investment growth rates declined [3] - **Market Outlook**: The external "equal - tariff" policy increased global economic uncertainty, the central bank would maintain a supportive monetary policy, and the prices of treasury bond futures would be more volatile [3]

Group 1 - The report maintains a tactical asset allocation view, recommending an overweight position in Hong Kong stocks, a neutral position in the Chinese yuan, and an underweight position in commodities, Japanese stocks, and US Treasuries [1][2][6] - Recent market performance has been driven by improved risk appetite, with equities outperforming commodities and bonds, and the report expresses optimism towards Hong Kong stocks due to rising liquidity and risk preference [2][22] - The report highlights the significant impact of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project on investor sentiment and related industry earnings expectations, indicating a shift in international capital flows towards Hong Kong stocks [6][19][26] Group 2 - The report reviews major events affecting asset pricing, including Trump's denial of plans to dismiss Fed Chair Powell, which alleviated some market concerns about Fed independence [19][22] - The report notes that the Japanese ruling coalition's loss of a majority in the Senate may weaken policy predictability, increasing volatility in Japanese asset pricing [23] - The report emphasizes that while infrastructure investment may temporarily support commodity prices, it maintains a cautious stance on commodities due to ongoing supply and demand pressures [26][27] Group 3 - The tactical asset allocation strategy includes an overweight in Hong Kong stocks due to strong performance and improved risk appetite, while maintaining a cautious view on US Treasuries amid concerns over fiscal pressures and economic resilience [26][27] - The report suggests that the Chinese yuan is expected to remain stable due to resilient economic growth compared to other major economies, supporting a neutral allocation stance [27][30] - The report outlines the performance of various asset classes, indicating that the tactical asset allocation portfolio achieved a cumulative excess return of 2.87% relative to the benchmark [35][36]

Report Information - Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Core Viewpoints - The US soybean futures contract on the external market fluctuated today, with the main contract at 1025 cents. Due to good weather and a slightly bearish USDA report in July, CBOT soybeans declined weakly at the beginning of last week and tested the previous low of 1000 cents again technically. Subsequently, positive news emerged. The US reached a trade agreement with Indonesia, which includes Indonesia's purchase of $4.5 billion worth of agricultural products from the US, stimulating the expectation of new - season US soybean exports. However, CBOT soybeans are still expected to fluctuate in the bottom range. The new - season US soybeans are growing well, with an unexpectedly high excellent - good rate of 70% in the latest week, 4% higher than the previous week and at a very high level in the past five years. Only 7% of the US soybean planting areas are affected by drought, and the soil moisture has some leeway. The expectation of a bumper harvest is gradually strengthening. If China, the largest importer of US soybeans, still cannot purchase due to high tariffs, CBOT soybeans are expected to have no sustained improvement. [6] - Domestic soybean meal continued to be strong this week. Firstly, the risk preference in the commodity market has recovered, and the prices of most industrial products at the bottom have continued to rise, driving the bullish sentiment in the whole market. Secondly, the fundamental situation of soybean meal itself is solid. Although the current spot supply of soybean meal is abundant, considering that China has not started to book ships for new - season US soybeans in the fourth quarter, the current pressure is insignificant. The price of CBOT soybeans has recovered this week, the FOB price of Brazilian soybeans has increased, and the import cost has gradually risen. The far - month soybean meal should be treated with a low - buying strategy. The risk lies in whether the future Sino - US peace talks will bring good news, such as a mutual reduction of tariffs without an agreement for China to purchase additional US agricultural products. [6] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3070, the opening price was 3080, the highest price was 3091, the lowest price was 3068, the closing price was 3087, with a rise of 17 and a rise rate of 0.55%. The trading volume was 292,691, the open interest was 1,155,465, and the open interest change was 8,587. For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3043, the opening price was 3060, the highest price was 3070, the lowest price was 3046, the closing price was 3069, with a rise of 26 and a rise rate of 0.85%. The trading volume was 972,455, the open interest was 1,885,694, and the open interest change was - 21,481. For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3083, the opening price was 3098, the highest price was 3108, the lowest price was 3083, the closing price was 3105, with a rise of 22 and a rise rate of 0.71%. The trading volume was 150,810, the open interest was 632,481, and the open interest change was - 9,420. [6] - **External Market Situation**: The US soybean futures contract on the external market fluctuated, and CBOT soybeans were affected by weather, USDA report, trade agreements, and China's purchasing situation. [6] - **Domestic Market Situation**: Domestic soybean meal was strong due to market sentiment and its own fundamentals. The far - month soybean meal should be treated with a low - buying strategy, with risks related to Sino - US relations. [6] 2. Industry News - **CFTC Position Report**: As of the week ending July 15, for CBOT soybeans, the long positions increased by 4,268 lots to 186,780 lots, and the short positions increased by 27,042 lots to 171,486 lots; for CBOT soybean oil, the long positions increased by 5,345 lots to 135,739 lots, and the short positions increased by 382 lots to 71,614 lots; for CBOT soybean meal, the long positions increased by 13,201 lots to 128,060 lots, and the short positions increased by 7,342 lots to 207,802 lots; for ICE rapeseed, the long positions decreased by 15,049 lots to 133,601 lots, and the short positions increased by 3,344 lots to 33,399 lots. [7] - **Rapeseed Growth Data**: As of the week ending July 16, the excellent - good rate of rapeseed crops in Saskatchewan, Canada was 60.65%. As of the week ending July 15, the excellent - good rate of rapeseed growth in Alberta was 64.4%, up from 63.7% the previous week. In Manitoba, due to a long sowing window, rapeseed was at different growth stages, and the fungicide spraying work was still in progress. [9] 3. Data Overview - Data includes various charts such as the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract of soybean meal, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures. [15][17][14]

Group 1 - The global financial market is set to experience significant events this week, including earnings reports from major companies, key housing data releases, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, which may disrupt the current market calm and create new volatility opportunities for forex traders [1] - U.S. stock futures showed slight declines, with the Dow Jones futures down by 16 points, and S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures also slightly lower, indicating a cautious investor sentiment [1] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has slightly decreased to 4.42%, while the dollar remains stable against major currencies, reflecting market reactions to Japan's recent upper house election results [1][5] Group 2 - If Asian market interest rates continue to rise, it may attract some capital back, potentially weakening demand for dollar-denominated assets, which could impact the medium-term outlook for the dollar index [6] - In the commodities market, gold prices have dropped to $3,353.60 per ounce, while U.S. and Brent crude oil prices have slightly increased to $67.48 and $69.41 per barrel, respectively, indicating mixed sentiments regarding economic prospects [6] - The upcoming earnings season will feature major tech companies, including Tesla and Alphabet, with expectations that better-than-expected results could boost market risk appetite and influence currency pair movements [6] - Key U.S. housing data will be released midweek, which may affect market perceptions of U.S. economic growth amid signs of a cooling real estate market [6] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and another official will speak on Tuesday, and the market will look for clues regarding the future interest rate path, which could inform trading strategies based on potential dollar movements [6]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of London gold is $3349.42 per ounce, showing a year-on-year increase of $10.43, which is a 0.31% rise [1] - Recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to geopolitical tensions, increased economic uncertainty, and central bank purchases supporting gold prices [1] - Conversely, the volatility of the US dollar index and changes in market risk appetite are also favorable for gold prices [1] Group 2: Indonesia-US Trade Agreement - Indonesia is in the process of negotiating the details of a new trade agreement with the United States, following a reduction in the tariff rate from 32% to 19% [2] - Indonesia is seeking exemptions for its exports of palm oil and nickel, along with other products such as cocoa, rubber, and coffee [2] - The US Treasury Secretary indicated the possibility of reaching a "good agreement" with Indonesia [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are showing a narrowing opening, with gold prices operating above the middle band, indicating a rebound from oversold conditions [3] - The MACD indicator is showing signs of a potential bullish crossover, while the RSI is rebounding from oversold levels, suggesting strong bullish momentum [3] - On the hourly chart, gold prices are supported by the lower Bollinger Band and are experiencing a significant rebound, with key support at $3310 and resistance at $3380 [3]

Group 1: Market Strategy - The market has shifted from being policy-driven to being driven by fundamentals and liquidity since September last year, with expectations for a potential upward trend in the second half of 2025, possibly surpassing the peak of the second half of 2024 [3] - The A-share market continues to show a trend of oscillation upwards, with the ChiNext index leading the gains, indicating an increase in market risk appetite despite differing capital flows [4] - The market style is transitioning from reversal to momentum, which may support further upward movement of the index, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy catalysts such as "anti-involution" and "stabilizing growth" [4] Group 2: Fixed Income and Credit Bonds - A total of 386 credit bonds were issued from July 14 to July 18, 2025, with a total issuance scale of 4010.95 billion yuan, representing a week-on-week decrease of 14.72% [4] - Among the credit bonds, industrial bonds accounted for 173 issues totaling 1759.1 billion yuan, while local government bonds saw an increase of 16.25% with 178 issues totaling 1065.35 billion yuan [4] - Financial bonds experienced a significant decrease of 40.42%, with 35 issues totaling 1186.5 billion yuan [4] Group 3: Industry Insights - The Guangxi Petrochemical project has been fully completed, marking a significant step in the integrated refining and chemical transformation, with the ethylene unit achieving high-quality commissioning [6] - China National Petroleum Corporation is accelerating its transformation into high-end new materials, achieving a breakthrough in new material sales and establishing five new material bases to enhance production capacity [6] - In the agricultural sector, the average price of live pigs has decreased by 3.65% week-on-week to 14.27 yuan/kg, while the average price of 15 kg piglets has increased by 0.22% to 31.96 yuan/kg [6]