Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for various sectors including hydropower, green electricity, nuclear power, thermal power, and gas power [4][9][44]. Core Insights - The green certificate market is experiencing a significant increase in both volume and price, with a 210% rise in average trading price in Q3 compared to Q1 [8]. - Global natural gas prices are fluctuating, with the US Henry Hub spot price reaching a near six-month high of $3.57/mmBtu, while European prices are showing mixed trends [11][12]. - The report anticipates a potential increase in gas consumption growth in Q4 2025 due to low base effects and high demand expectations, despite a 1.6% year-on-year decline in September gas consumption [32][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity - In September 2025, 229 million green electricity certificates were issued, with 68.86% being tradable [4][8]. - The report highlights the improvement in market mechanisms and the growing demand for renewable energy consumption [8]. 2. Natural Gas - As of October 31, 2025, the US Henry Hub spot price increased by 11.16% week-on-week, while European prices showed a decline [11][12]. - The report notes a 1.6% year-on-year decrease in national gas consumption in September, with expectations for growth in Q4 2025 due to favorable weather conditions [32][33]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include hydropower companies such as Guotou Power and Chuanwei Energy, green electricity firms like Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power, and gas companies including Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy [9][44]. - The report emphasizes the potential for improved profitability in the gas sector due to declining costs and rising demand [33][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost of imported beans has increased, and it is expected that the prices of bean products will bottom out and rebound. Specifically, the price centers of CBOT soybeans, soybean No. 2, soybean meal, and soybean oil are expected to move slightly upward in November, while the price of soybean No. 1 is expected to operate within a narrow range [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 International Bean Market Analysis 3.1.1 CBOT Soybean Market - In 2025, the price of CBOT soybeans fluctuated. It was affected by factors such as USDA reports, South American weather, planting area adjustments, and biodiesel policies. In October, the price found strong support at 1000 cents per bushel and then rallied. It is expected to stabilize above 1100 cents per bushel in November and continue to rise slightly [15][16][108]. - The net non - commercial long positions in CBOT soybeans indicate strong bullish sentiment, and the price is expected to remain strong [19]. - There is a risk of La Nina, which is expected to last until December 2025 - February 2026 and may transition to an ENSO neutral state in 2026 [29]. - The current good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is lower than last year's level, and it is expected that the high - yield estimate of 53.5 bushels per acre will be revised downwards, which will support the price of CBOT soybeans [33]. - The old - crop inventory of US soybeans has decreased, and the new - crop planting area has been reduced. The new - crop supply - demand balance is expected to tighten, which is bullish for CBOT soybeans [40][54]. - The US soybean crushing volume has reached record highs, indicating strong domestic demand [44]. - The US soybean crushing profit has decreased compared to the same period last year, while the soybean crushing profit in Brazil's Mato Grosso state has increased compared to the same period last year. Brazil's soybean crushing profit is good, and the basis is expected to remain firm [49]. 3.1.2 South American Bean Market - Brazil's soybean planting progress is in line with the same period last year, and the harvest area is expected to increase. Brazil's soybean production has been increasing in recent years, which competes with US soybeans. The export potential of Brazilian soybeans is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, and the supply - demand balance is expected to be more relaxed [62][66][70]. - Argentina's soybean supply - demand balance has tightened slightly this year, and the government's tariff policy has an impact on the international bean market [77]. - The basis of South American soybeans is expected to remain firm due to factors such as reduced export potential in Brazil and good domestic crushing profits [81]. 3.1.3 Global Bean and Oilseed Market - Global oilseed production has been increasing, mainly driven by the continuous increase in South American soybean production [85]. - The US biodiesel policy has uncertainties, and there is a risk that the policy may not be fully implemented, which may affect the demand for US soybeans [97]. - The global soybean supply - demand balance shows that the inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased in the 2025/26 season due to the expected decline in US soybean production and strong demand, which is bullish for global bean prices [101]. 3.2 Domestic Bean Market Analysis 3.2.1 Dalian Commodity Exchange Bean Futures Market - The price of Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal has fluctuated. In 2025, it was affected by factors such as US soybean production, South American supply, and biodiesel policies. Currently, the price is supported by increased import costs, but the upward momentum is weak. It is expected to trade in a narrow range around 3000 - 3100 yuan per ton in November [114][219]. - The price of DCE soybean oil has also fluctuated. Although the current inventory is at a historical high, the expected reduction in oilseed imports in the fourth quarter and the slowdown in palm oil inventory accumulation are expected to support the price, and it is expected to stop falling and rise after recent adjustments [8][120]. - The price of DCE soybean No. 1 has been affected by factors such as domestic production, purchase sentiment, and Sino - US trade negotiations. It is expected to operate in a narrow range in November [8][201]. - The price of DCE soybean No. 2 is expected to rise slightly in November due to increased import costs, while the commercial import of US soybeans is not very active due to negative crushing margins [8][209]. 3.2.2 Domestic Bean Supply and Demand - The profit of domestic soybean crushing has narrowed, which may reduce the enthusiasm of oil mills for importing soybeans and limit the downward space of downstream oil and meal prices [129]. - In the third quarter, the arrival of South American soybeans increased, and the inventory of coastal soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil has accumulated. Currently, the export potential of Brazilian soybeans has declined, and the basis is high. The willingness of oil mills to actively import US soybeans is weak due to poor crushing margins [132]. - As of October 24, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 973.1 million tons, the domestic main oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 105.46 million tons, and the national key - area commercial soybean oil inventory was 125.03 million tons [137][141][149]. - The import volume of domestic soybean oil has decreased due to high inventory, and the impact on domestic prices is limited. The import volume of domestic soybean meal is very small and has little impact on domestic prices [152][154]. 3.2.3 Domestic Feed and Livestock Market - The profit of pig farming is poor, the growth rate of the sow inventory has slowed down, the inventory of laying hens has stopped increasing and adjusted, and the demand for soybean meal in the feed industry is expected to decrease in the fourth quarter [164][171][175]. 3.3 Bean Operation Opportunity Analysis No relevant content provided. 3.4 Seasonal Analysis and Market Judgment - Each type of bean product has different price trends and influencing factors in different seasons. Overall, the prices of bean products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, import costs, and policies. In November, it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as US soybean exports, biodiesel policies, and the progress of South American soybean planting [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic thermal coal prices remained stable. As of October 31, the quotation for 5500K coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 768 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The coal market atmosphere was still optimistic, with good purchasing enthusiasm among traders and many coal mines raising prices. The market expected a supply contraction at the end of the year, which supported the coal price. Although the demand in southern coastal cities declined in the off - season after the October cooling, the low coal inventory in coastal power plants meant there was still restocking demand. The La Nina phenomenon that emerged in September 2025 might last until December 2025 - February 2026, but its impact on winter temperatures was uncertain. As of October 31, the total coal inventory at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 23.169 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 800,000 tons and 2.729 million tons lower than the same period last year, which supported the port coal price. After the China - US summit, some tariffs were lowered and suspended for one year. Overall, some positive factors were mostly realized in October. As coal prices rose, market competition intensified, and it was expected that the upward trend of coal prices would slow down and remain in a high - level volatile state [3][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 News and Market Trends - In the first three quarters, the installed capacity of coal - fired power was 1.23 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The total social electricity consumption in the country was 7.77 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. It was expected that the electricity consumption growth rate in the fourth quarter would be higher than that in the third quarter, and the annual social electricity consumption would increase by about 5% year - on - year. From January to September, the coal mining and washing industry achieved a profit of 22.464 billion yuan, a decrease of 51.1%. The autumn maintenance of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway was completed one day ahead of schedule, and the daily freight volume was expected to quickly rebound to over 1.2 million tons [5][7][8][10]. 3.2 Market Data Tracking - On October 29, the Bohai Rim Thermal Coal Price Index was 685 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton. As of October 30, the FOB price of 5500 - calorie thermal coal produced in Shanxi at Qinhuangdao Port was 768 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton compared to October 23. Shipping freight rates were adjusted downward this week. As of October 30, the China Coastal Coal Freight Composite Index was 943.06 points, a decrease of 6.35 points from October 23; the BDI freight index also declined. As of October 30, the spot prices of Q5800, Q5500, Q5000, and Q4500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port were 823.11, 768.00, 672.00, and 587.00 yuan/ton respectively. The main contract of Zhengzhou Coal was 33.4 yuan/ton higher than the 5500 - calorie thermal coal quotation at Qinhuangdao Port. As of October 30, the Q5500 Indonesian coal ex - warehouse price at Guangzhou Port was 768.62 yuan/ton, 0.62 yuan/ton higher than the domestic Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal quotation. As of October 24, the Newcastle thermal coal spot price was 103.74 US dollars/ton. As of October 28, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 5.64 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,000 tons, and the number of ships at anchor was 17 [13][15][23][24][26]. 3.3 Future Outlook - The market expected a supply contraction at the end of the year, which supported the coal price. The low coal inventory in coastal power plants meant there was still restocking demand. The La Nina phenomenon might last until December 2025 - February 2026, but its impact on winter temperatures was uncertain. The low inventory at ports supported the coal price. After the China - US summit, some tariffs were lowered and suspended for one year. Overall, it was expected that the upward trend of coal prices would slow down and remain in a high - level volatile state [3][28].

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing strong demand resilience due to the La Niña phenomenon and supply constraints, leading to higher-than-expected coal prices. The coal sector's supply-demand dynamics are improving, presenting investment opportunities in the fourth quarter [1]. Group 1: Demand Factors - The probability of a cold winter is increasing due to the La Niña phenomenon, which is expected to persist from December 2025 to February 2026, potentially leading to lower temperatures in China's central and eastern regions [2]. - The current weather conditions, characterized by high temperatures in the south and sudden drops in temperature in the north, are significantly driving up coal consumption [2]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - The coal supply is being constrained by government policies aimed at curbing overproduction, with national coal production in July and August at 380 million and 390 million tons, respectively, which is below the average monthly production of approximately 400 million tons over the past year and a half [2]. - In August, the industrial raw coal production was 390 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, with expectations of a slight decline in production in Q4 due to ongoing checks for overproduction [2][3]. - The central government's environmental inspections in Inner Mongolia are causing disruptions in open-pit mining operations, further impacting coal production [3]. Group 3: Price Outlook - The coal prices are expected to remain strong due to ongoing supply constraints and rising winter demand, with both thermal and coking coal prices having upward elasticity [4]. - Current prices for thermal and coking coal are at historical lows, providing room for potential rebounds, supported by the supply-side policies and seasonal demand increases [4]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The only coal ETF in the market (515220) has seen significant growth, exceeding 13 billion yuan, and offers a high dividend yield of over 5.3% as of September 30, making it an attractive investment option [5]. - Investors are encouraged to consider gradually accumulating positions in the coal ETF (515220) to capitalize on the investment opportunities within the coal sector [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rolled steel: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Logs: Weak oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Weak oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Range operation [6] - Palm oil: Range operation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Range operation [6] - Soybean meal: Rebound [6] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [6] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [8] - Soybean No. 1: Rebound [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a slight upward trend [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Report's Core Views - The macro利好 has landed, and black prices are returning to fundamentals. The iron ore market has an oversupply situation, and the coal and coke market is affected by policies and supply concerns. The steel market's price stop depends on production cuts and anti-"involution" policies. The glass market has inventory pressure and weak demand. The financial market has different trends for various indexes, and the precious metal market is affected by multiple factors such as central bank purchases and geopolitical risks. The light industry and agricultural product markets have their own supply and demand characteristics, and the soft commodity and polyester markets also face different situations [2][4][6][8][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: The main line is "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation." The supply has room for impulse, and the demand is weak due to the low level of real estate new construction. Follow-up attention should be paid to four main lines that may trigger price revaluation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Driven by multiple news, the price has risen. The market is concerned about demand-side policies, and the core contradiction lies in the low profit level of steel mills [2] - Rolled steel: The price is affected by the demand for steel, and the stop of the decline depends on production cuts and policy implementation [2] - Glass: There are contradictions in the market, with weak demand and increasing inventory pressure. The solution depends on reducing the daily melting volume and the support of policies [2] Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: Different indexes have different trends, and the market is short-term consolidated with increasing bullish sentiment [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has declined, and the market has a slight upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism is changing, and it is affected by multiple factors such as central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [4] Light Industry - Logs: The supply is increasing seasonally, while the demand is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] - Pulp: The cost support is weakening, and the demand is poor. The price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - Offset paper: There is supply pressure, and the demand has not improved. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] Oil and Fat - Oils: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The overall is expected to continue range operation [6] - Meal: Supported by trade optimism and the rise of US soybean futures, it is expected to rebound in the short term [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The trading average weight may increase slightly, and the settlement price may rise. The market is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [8] Soft Commodities and Polyester - Rubber: The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is improving. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate widely [10] - PX: The trade dispute risk is weakening, and the price follows the oil price [10] - PTA: The cost support is weakened, and the supply and demand are marginally improved. The price follows the cost [10] - MEG: The supply is at a high level, and the demand is worrying. The price is suppressed by the inventory pressure [10] - PR: The market may oscillate weakly [10] - PF: The market may be sorted narrowly [10]

Core Viewpoint - Since October, palm oil prices have been continuously declining due to the accumulation of palm oil inventories and the increase in Argentine soybean oil production [1] Group 1: Palm Oil Production and Inventory - In September, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.84116 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.73% but a year-on-year increase of 1.06% [2] - The export volume for September was 1.42758 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.69% but a year-on-year decrease of 8.48% [2] - As of mid-October, Malaysia's palm oil production increased significantly by 10.77% month-on-month, contradicting market expectations of reduced production [2] - The palm oil inventory in Malaysia reached 2.3610 million tons in September, the highest level in nearly five years [2][10] - Historically, Malaysia is expected to enter a destocking period in November [2] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Argentina's implementation of an export tax exemption policy in September led to a rapid decline in oil prices and weakened demand expectations [7] - India imported 300,000 tons of soybean oil from Argentina by the end of September, with expectations of over 450,000 tons in October, while palm oil imports are projected to drop to 600,000 tons [7] - From January to September 2025, India imported 5.6186 million tons of palm oil, a decrease of 12.29% year-on-year, while soybean oil imports increased by 27.51% to 3.5657 million tons [7] - Current edible oil stocks in Indian ports are high, indicating limited future replenishment demand [7] - The domestic soybean-palm oil price difference in China was -928 yuan/ton on October 24, the lowest level for the same period in five years, indicating poor price competitiveness for palm oil [9] Group 3: Global Market Trends - The EU's environmental policies have also suppressed palm oil demand, contributing to a decrease in demand from traditional consumer countries while increasing demand from regions like Africa and the Americas [11] - Overall, the global palm oil market is characterized by declining total demand [11] Group 4: Future Outlook - In the short term, palm oil futures prices are expected to remain under pressure due to inventory accumulation, increased Argentine soybean oil production, and weak demand [12] - In the medium term, there is potential for palm oil futures prices to rise due to tightening supply and the onset of the destocking period in Malaysia [12]

自10月以来，受马棕油库存持续累积、阿根廷豆油产量增长等因素影响，棕榈油价格持续下跌。 马棕油去库周期将至 9月马棕油产量为184.116万吨，环比减少0.73%，同比增加1.06%；出口量为142.758万吨，环比增加 7.69%，同比减少8.48%。根据MPOB数据，10月前20日马棕油产量环比大增10.77%，市场减产预期落 空。ITS出口高频数据显示，10月1日—25日马棕油出口128.38万吨，环比减少0.36%，出口表现偏弱。9 月马棕油库存为236.10万吨，处于近5年来最高水平。从历史规律来看，马棕油将在11月进入去库周 期。 印尼方面，据GAPKI数据，2025年1—7月印尼棕榈油累计产量为3058.8万吨，同比增加11.11%；累计消 费量为1430.6万吨，同比增加5.89%。近3个月印尼棕榈油国内月均消费量超过200万吨，月均出口量超 过250万吨，尚未出现累库迹象。受有利天气影响，GAPKI预计印尼2025年棕榈油产量将增长10%。 总需求下降 9月阿根廷推行出口免税政策，直接导致短期油脂价格迅速下跌、需求预期转弱。9月底，印度从阿根廷 采购了30万吨豆油，印度贸易商预计10月豆油进 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Stock index futures/options: Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, and CSI 500 index futures are expected to oscillate, while CSI 1000 index futures are expected to rebound [2][4] - Treasury bonds: 2 - year and 5 - year treasury bonds are expected to oscillate, and 10 - year treasury bonds are expected to rise [4] - Gold and silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Logs: Weak oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Weak oscillation [6] - Oils and fats: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Meal: Rebound [6][7] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a slight upward trend [7] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG, PR, PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Viewpoints - The macro - environment is generally warming up, with Sino - US talks and the Fed's potential interest rate cut boosting risk appetite, leading to a rebound in commodity prices at low levels. However, different industries face different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][4]. - The iron ore market has an oversupply situation with high supply and low demand, and the price is mainly affected by factors such as policies, steel mill profits, and terminal demand [2]. - The coking coal and coke market is affected by macro - policy expectations and industry supply concerns, and the core contradiction lies in the low profit level of steel mills [2]. - The steel market has weak domestic demand, and the price stop - falling depends on production reduction and anti - "involution" policies [2]. - The glass market has weak demand and increasing inventory pressure, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [2]. - The stock index futures/options market has a short - term consolidation with rising bullish sentiment, and it is recommended to hold long positions [4]. - The treasury bond market shows a slight upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. - The gold market is affected by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies, and is expected to oscillate at a high level [4]. - The log market has increasing supply pressure and weakening demand, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [6]. - The pulp market has weak cost support and poor demand, and the price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - The oils and fats market has sufficient supply and weak demand, and is expected to continue wide - range oscillation [6]. - The meal market is affected by weather and supply - demand factors, and is expected to rebound in the short term [6][7]. - The live pig market has sufficient supply, increasing demand, and is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [7]. - The rubber market has mixed supply and demand factors, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [9]. - The PX, PTA, and polyester - related product markets are affected by factors such as oil prices and supply - demand, and different products have different price trends [9]. Summary by Industry Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: The supply is expected to remain high as Rio Tinto and VALE have room for production increases to meet annual targets, and port arrivals are likely to stay at a high level. The demand is weak, with iron - water production declining and real - estate new construction at a low level. The market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is mainly affected by policies, steel mill profits, and terminal demand [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Driven by macro - policy expectations, the market is concerned about potential demand - side policies. The industry is facing supply concerns, and the core contradiction is the low profit level of steel mills. If steel products continue to weaken, steel mill overhauls may expand, putting pressure on raw materials. The second - round coke price increase has been implemented, and short - term attention should be paid to the resonance of macro and industry expectations [2]. - **Rebar**: The macro - environment is warming up, but the domestic demand for steel is weak, with real - estate new construction at a low level. The price stop - falling depends on whether production reduction of more than 5% can be strictly implemented in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the intensity of anti - "involution" policies. The steel market still has supply - demand contradictions and is expected to continue oscillating [2]. Building Materials - **Glass**: The current market has weak shipments and a strong price - cut atmosphere. The demand is weak, with real - estate completion declining during the peak season, and the inventory of glass factories is increasing. To solve the over - supply problem in the entire industry chain, the daily melting volume of glass needs to drop to about 154,000 tons by the end of the year. The price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro and production - reduction policies [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices, with some sectors showing capital inflows and outflows. The market is in short - term consolidation with rising bullish sentiment, and it is recommended to hold long positions [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has declined, and the central bank has carried out reverse - repurchase operations. The market trend is slightly upward, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. - **Gold and silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central - bank gold purchases. It is affected by factors such as currency, finance, risk - aversion, and commodity attributes. The current market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and gold is expected to oscillate at a high level [4]. Forestry Products - **Logs**: The port daily shipment volume has increased, but the downstream is entering the off - season, and demand may weaken. The import volume is seasonally increasing, putting pressure on supply. The port inventory is expected to turn to accumulation. The spot - market price is running weakly, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [6]. - **Pulp**: The spot - market price is relatively stable. The cost support for pulp prices is weakening, and the demand from paper mills is poor. The price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - **Offset paper**: The spot - market price is relatively stable. There is still supply pressure due to new production capacity in South China. The start - up rate has rebounded, but the market expectation is cautious. The price is expected to be weakly oscillating [6]. Oils and Fats and Meals - **Oils and fats**: The US government shutdown has led to a lack of official data. The high inventory of palm oil in Malaysia is suppressing the market. The production of palm oil is at the end of the increasing season, and the export volume varies. The demand for biodiesel in Indonesia is strong, and the inventory of US soybean oil has decreased. The domestic supply of oils and fats is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to continue wide - range oscillation [6]. - **Meals**: The weather in the US Midwest may delay crop harvesting, and the weather in Brazil is favorable for soybean sowing but the sowing rate is low. The La Nina phenomenon brings uncertainties to South American soybean growth. The domestic supply of soybean meal is increasing, and the demand is also rising. The price is expected to rebound in the short term [6][7]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs has increased slightly. The demand has weakened, and the slaughter volume has decreased, leading to a decline in pig prices to near the cost line. The price has rebounded, and the fat - to - standard pig price difference has widened. The demand for pork is increasing with the drop in temperature, and the price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [7]. Soft Commodities and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The raw - material output in Yunnan is gradually recovering, but the profit from rubber tapping is negative. The output in Hainan is lower than expected, but the cost of local processing plants has decreased. The price of cup rubber in Thailand has risen, and the inventory in Vietnam is low. The demand from tire enterprises has increased, and the inventory of natural rubber is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate widely [9]. - **PX, PTA, and Polyester - related Products**: The PX market has short - term supply - demand growth but medium - term pressure. The PTA market has a weakening supply - demand situation and uncertain cost support. Different polyester products have different price trends affected by factors such as supply, demand, and raw - material prices [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that soybean and rapeseed meal will experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term. The Sino - US trade relationship remains uncertain, and attention should be paid to the progress of the trade negotiations at the end of this month. In South America, as of October 18, 21.7% of soybean sowing in Brazil has been completed, higher than 17.6% in the same period last year, and the rainfall in the central - western region in the next two weeks is favorable for sowing. The La Nina phenomenon may last until February next year, and the impact of weather on South American soybean production should be monitored. In China, high supply and high inventory suppress the price of soybean meal, but factors such as low prices of soybean oil and soybean meal, widespread losses in soybean crushing profits, and the strong willingness of oil mills to support prices form a support for the price. Considering the large actual supply pressure, the rebound height of soybean meal futures is expected to be limited [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View and Strategy 3.1.1 Fundamental View - In the short term, soybean and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate widely. The Sino - US trade relationship is uncertain, and the progress of the trade negotiations at the end of this month should be followed. In South America, as of October 18, Brazil's soybean sowing progress is faster than last year, and the rainfall in the central - western region in the next two weeks is conducive to sowing. The La Nina phenomenon may affect South American soybean production. In China, high supply and high inventory suppress the soybean meal price, but the losses in soybean crushing profits and the oil mills' price - support intention support the price. After a large decline in soybean meal, short - sellers' concentrated stop - profit led to a small increase, but the rebound height of futures is limited due to supply pressure [4][5]. 3.1.2 Strategy View and Outlook - Unilateral: The pressure level of soybean meal 2601 is recommended to refer to 3100 - 3200. - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines. - Outlook: Attention should be paid to the weather in South American soybean - producing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, domestic soybean meal demand, and Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations. Overall, soybean and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [6]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure 3.2.1 Futures and Spot Markets - Last week, soybean meal futures fluctuated strongly. The main reasons for the increase were poor soybean crushing profits, which supported the meal price, and the concentrated stop - profit of short - sellers. The September USDA report was slightly bearish. The estimated soybean yield per acre was reduced by 0.1 bushels to 53.5 bushels, the planting area was increased by 200,000 acres, the crushing volume was increased by 15 million bushels, the export volume was decreased by 20 million bushels, and the ending inventory was increased from 290 million bushels in August to 300 million bushels [15]. 3.2.2 Feed Futures Main Contracts - The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated widely and is currently at a historically low level. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. 3.2.3 Inter - variety Futures Spreads - The 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal fluctuated weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [23]. 3.2.4 Spot Basis - Relevant data charts of the spot basis of Dongguan 43% protein soybean meal and Guangdong rapeseed meal are presented, but no specific analysis is provided. 3.2.5 Supply Side 3.2.5.1 US Soybean Sales Data - As of September 18, 2025, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the market year was 724,459 tons [31]. 3.2.5.2 US Soybean Crushing Data - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.38 dollars per bushel, a 12.50% decline from the previous week and a 32.96% decline from the same period last year [37]. 3.2.5.3 China's Soybean Import Volume - In September 2025, China imported 12.869 million tons of soybeans, a month - on - month increase of 590,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.498 million tons (13.17%). From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 86.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.331 million tons (5.29%) [40]. 3.2.5.4 China's Rapeseed Import Volume - Relevant data charts of China's monthly and cumulative rapeseed import volume are presented, but no specific analysis is provided. 3.2.5.5 China's Soybean and Rapeseed Crushing Data - Relevant data charts of China's soybean and rapeseed crushing volume, rapeseed meal output, and imported soybean crushing profit are presented, but no specific analysis is provided. 3.2.6 Demand Side 3.2.6.1 Pig Price and Breeding Profit - Relevant data charts of China's commodity pig出栏 price, pig - grain ratio, self - breeding profit, and外购 profit of pigs are presented, but no specific analysis is provided. 3.2.6.2 Chicken Breeding Profit - Relevant data charts of the breeding profit of white - feather broilers and laying hens are presented, but no specific analysis is provided. 3.2.7 Inventory 3.2.7.1 Domestic Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory - As of October 17, the national port soybean inventory was 7.687 million tons, a 0.38% increase from the previous week and a 27.49% increase from last year. The domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory was 976,200 tons, a 9.54% decrease from the previous week and a 4.16% increase from last year [69]. 3.2.7.2 Domestic Feed Mill Soybean Meal Physical Inventory Days - As of October 24, 2025 (week 43), the physical inventory days of soybean meal in domestic feed enterprises were 7.95 days, a 0.33% increase from October 17 and an 11.95% increase from the same period last year [72]. 3.2.7.3 Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Inventory - As of October 17, the coastal main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 0.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.2 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.78 million tons, a decrease of 0.37 million tons from the previous week; and the unexecuted contract was 0.98 million tons, a decrease of 0.67 million tons from the previous week [74].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for several companies within these industries [3][4]. Core Insights - The second industry is the main driver of electricity consumption growth, with a notable increase in electricity demand due to seasonal factors and high temperatures in Q3 [4][9]. - Global gas prices are rebounding, and expectations of a cold winter may enhance gas sales growth [18][19]. - The report highlights various investment opportunities across different energy sectors, including hydropower, green energy, nuclear power, thermal power, and gas [16][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: Q3 Second Industry Drives National Electricity Consumption - In September, total electricity consumption reached 888.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [10]. - The second industry contributed significantly to this growth, with a 5.1% increase in electricity consumption, accounting for 51% of the total growth [4][9]. - The cumulative electricity consumption from January to September was 7767.5 billion kWh, reflecting a 4.6% year-on-year growth [13]. 2. Gas: Global Gas Price Rebound and Cold Winter Expectations - As of October 24, the Henry Hub spot price was $3.21/mmBtu, showing a weekly increase of 13.96% [19][20]. - The report notes a seasonal demand increase and geopolitical factors supporting gas prices, particularly in Europe [25][37]. - The anticipated La Niña phenomenon may lead to colder winter conditions, potentially boosting gas consumption [37]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The report indicates that the power equipment sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, while the public utility, gas, and environmental protection sectors lagged [42]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - The report discusses significant developments in the energy sector, including the launch of innovative products in wind energy and updates on national energy policies [50][51]. - It highlights the performance of major companies, such as Huadian International, which reported a decrease in electricity generation due to increased renewable energy capacity [57].