Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 266.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 154.5 billion yuan after 112 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for overnight loans increased by 3.80 basis points to 1.4360%, while the 7-day Shibor rose by 1.80 basis points to 1.4830%, and the 14-day Shibor increased by 3.20 basis points to 1.5370% [2][3] Group 2 - In the interbank pledged repo market, various rates saw slight increases, with the 7-day and 14-day rates both surpassing 1.5%. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 rose by 4.7 basis points and 6.5 basis points, respectively, while transaction volumes decreased significantly [4] - The money market maintained a tense liquidity situation, with overnight rates stabilizing around 1.55% and 7-day rates between 1.53% and 1.55% after the central bank's operations [9] Group 3 - Agricultural Bank successfully issued a floating-rate green financial bond in the interbank market with a scale of 6 billion yuan and a term of 3 years at an interest rate of 1.80%. This bond is the first in the market linked to the central bank's reverse repo rate [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market in the short - term, suggesting that the 10 - year Treasury yield may return to around 1.65%. After the adjustment, there are prominent opportunities in credit bonds [1][107]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Historically, inflation, overheating or recovery of the economy, and tightening of monetary policy are the main reasons for the significant bearish trend in the bond market. Currently, the probability of a significant bearish trend in the bond market is low. The bond market is more likely to maintain a volatile pattern in the next 1 - 2 years [1]. - The signals before the inflection point of the bull - to - bear transition in the bond market are weakening. In the future, nominal GDP growth rate, PPI year - on - year growth rate, and institutional behavior (regulatory policies) may be key indicators and signals. CPI recovery is neither a sufficient nor a necessary condition [1][92]. - The current bond market does not have the conditions for a significant bearish trend. The reasons include the low probability of significant tightening of monetary policy this year, weak economic repair momentum, a loose capital situation, uncertain effects of anti - involution policies, and limited external negative pressure on the bond market [1][106]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Characteristics of Past Bond Bear Markets - **2007 - 2008**: Due to overheating of the economy and high inflation pressure, the central bank continuously raised interest rates, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 3% to 4.5%. After the global financial crisis in the second half of 2008, the policy turned to easing [5]. - **2010 - 2011**: After the "Four - Trillion" stimulus plan, inflation pressure climbed again. The central bank implemented tightening policies, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 3.2% to 4.1% [8]. - **2013**: Due to the "Money Shortage" and financial supervision, there was a liquidity crisis. The central bank tightened liquidity, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 3.4% to 4.6% [9][10]. - **2016 - 2017**: With strong financial supervision, supply - side reform, and shantytown renovation monetization, the central bank tightened monetary policy, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 2.7% to 3.9% [11]. - **2020**: After the public health event, the economy recovered, and the policy gradually returned to normal. The 10 - year Treasury yield started to rise in late April [15]. - **2022**: The end of the public health event increased the market's expectation of economic recovery, and there was a negative feedback from bank wealth management. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 2.6% to 2.9% [19][21]. - **Common Characteristics**: Policy drive (tightening of monetary policy and strengthening of financial supervision), economic cycle correlation (the bond market is prone to a bearish trend when the macro - economy is improving and inflation is rising), and capital trends (capital is the link between policy and the market) [22][23][24]. 3.2. Inflection Points of Past Bull - to - Bear Transitions in the Bond Market - **2007 - 2008**: The inflection point occurred on January 17, 2007. Before the inflection point, the monetary policy had turned to tightening, the capital was tightened, the fundamentals improved significantly, and inflation pressure increased [24][27][28]. - **2010 - 2011**: The inflection point occurred on July 14, 2010. Before the inflection point, the monetary policy had turned to tightening, the capital was tightened, the economy recovered rapidly, and CPI and PPI had been rising [36][38][40]. - **2013**: The inflection point occurred on April 16, 2013. Before the inflection point, there was a sign of capital tightening, the economy showed a co - existence of recovery and inflation pressure, and the central bank tightened liquidity [45][49][50]. - **2016 - 2017**: The inflection point occurred on October 21, 2016. Before the inflection point, there was no obvious sign of capital tightening, the economy was relatively stable, CPI was not obvious, and PPI rose significantly [53][57][60]. - **2020**: The inflection point occurred on April 8, 2020. Before the inflection point, there was no sign of capital tightening, the economy recovered simultaneously with the bearish trend, CPI was not obvious, and PPI was more obvious [63][66][67]. - **2022**: The inflection point occurred in August 2022. Before the inflection point, there was no sign of capital tightening, the economy had a pre - recovery trend, and CPI and PPI were not obvious [74][77][78]. 3.3. Reasons Why the Current Bond Market is Unlikely to Go Significantly Bearish - **Past Bull - to - Bear Inflection Point Signals**: Fundamental inflection points (leading or synchronous with the bull - to - bear inflection point), policy inflection points (monetary policy tightening), CPI or PPI recovery (PPI bottoming out 6 - 12 months before the bearish trend), and capital inflection points (yield bottom lags behind the capital bottom by an average of 2.5 months). In the future, these signals are weakening [83][85][87]. - **CPI Recovery is Neither Sufficient nor Necessary**: CPI recovery is not a sufficient or necessary condition for the bull - to - bear transition in the bond market. Cost - push inflation has limited impact on the bond market trend [95][96]. - **Current Situation Analysis**: The monetary policy is unlikely to tighten significantly this year. The economic repair momentum is weak, with low nominal GDP growth, negative GDP deflator, and declining PPI. The capital situation is loose, the "anti - involution" policy effect is uncertain, and the external environment has limited negative pressure on the bond market [97][100][105]. 3.4. Investment Analysis Opinions - In the short - term, the report is bullish on the bond market, suggesting that the 10 - year Treasury yield may return to around 1.65%. After the adjustment, there are opportunities in credit bonds, such as long - duration sinking urban investment bonds, capital bonds, and insurance sub - debt. It is recommended to focus on the long - duration capital bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng banks, and be bullish on urban investment dim - sum bonds and US dollar bonds. Pay attention to the capital bonds of Beibu Gulf Bank, Tianjin Bank, and China Property Insurance [106][107].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, all treasury bond futures fluctuated and declined, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures showing a significant decline. The central bank's Q2 2025 monetary policy implementation report released on August 16 emphasizes "detailed implementation" and "structure", indicating future structural easing policies in areas like inclusive small - and micro - enterprise financial services, financial support for technological innovation, and financial support for consumption promotion, but the expectation of comprehensive interest rate cuts has weakened. Also, the recent continuous rise in the stock market's risk appetite has led to funds flowing from bonds to stocks, suppressing the demand for treasury bonds. In general, treasury bond futures will fluctuate weakly in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry News and Related Charts - On August 18, the People's Bank of China conducted 266.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with both the bid volume and winning volume being 266.5 billion yuan and the operating rate at 1.40%. There were 112 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing today, resulting in a net investment of 154.5 billion yuan [4]

Market Overview - A-shares continued to rise this week, reaching new highs in both index points and average daily trading volume, with trading amounts exceeding 2 trillion yuan for three consecutive days [2] - The Hang Seng Index also increased, but A-shares outperformed Hong Kong stocks overall [2] - The net inflow from the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached 35.876 billion yuan, indicating strong interest in Hong Kong assets [2] Bond Market - The bond market experienced a decline this week, with both interest rate bonds and credit bonds weakening, leading to negative returns for pure bond funds [2] - The funding environment remained balanced but slightly loose, which typically supports bond performance [2] - Basic economic data showed weak credit data and continued deflation, which could provide some support for bonds despite the market's limited pricing of fundamental data [2] Commodity Market - Gold prices saw a significant pullback this week, influenced by cautious Federal Reserve attitudes and unexpected PPI data [3] - The overall commodity index rose by 0.52%, with agricultural and non-ferrous metals performing well, while precious metals declined [35] Stock Market Insights - The strong performance of the stock market is attributed to good recent profit effects, a strong overall atmosphere, and reduced external uncertainties due to the 90-day delay in US-China tariffs [6] - The market is believed to have substantial structural opportunities, with a focus on sectors with high earnings certainty and potential for positive surprises [7] Industry Performance - In the industry performance, the communication, electronics, and non-bank financial sectors showed significant gains, with increases of 7.66%, 7.02%, and 6.48% respectively [23] - Conversely, the banking, steel, and textile sectors experienced declines [23] Economic Data - July economic data showed a 5.7% increase in industrial value added, with 35 out of 41 major industries reporting growth [31] - Social financing and M2 growth rates remained high, indicating continued liquidity in the economy [31] International Market - US stocks continued to rise, with the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September increasing, which could present opportunities in US Treasury bonds [10] - The overall trend in global major economies is towards fiscal expansion, which may support fundamentals and risk appetite [10]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: August 17, 2025 [1] - Report title: Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Report [1] - Core view: Despite the mediocre macro - data in the off - season, the stock market remains strong, treasury bond futures continue to correct, and the curve turns steeper. The net long positions of private funds increased slightly on a weekly basis, while those of wealth management subsidiaries and foreign investors decreased significantly. Maintain the view that the overall trend in the second half of the year is expected to be volatile and bearish [4] Group 2: Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - Market performance: Treasury bond futures contracts declined this week, and the curve steepened significantly. The market showed a differentiated pattern with increased volatility at the long - end and continued resilience at the short - end. Policy expectations and the game of the capital market dominated market sentiment [5][7] - Short - end market: Supported by the capital market, it fluctuated within a narrow range. The 2 - year contract (TS2509) had a small decline this week. The capital market was loose, with DR001/DR007 interest rates at a low level, and the central bank continued net investment to stabilize liquidity [7] - Long - end market: Affected by policy games, the volatility increased. The yield curve showed alternating "flattening - steepening" characteristics [7] Group 3: Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - There is relevant content about liquidity monitoring and curve tracking, but no specific details are provided in the given text [9] Group 4: Seat Analysis - Daily change in net long positions by institutional type: Private funds increased by 1.41%; foreign investors increased by 1.66%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 2.94% - Weekly change in net long positions by institutional type: Private funds increased by 3.84%; foreign investors decreased by 24.11%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 27.72% [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the capital interest rates maintained a "low-level and low-volatility" state, with a slight increase during the tax period. The central bank's flexible injections and large banks' high net lending maintained a comfortable liquidity environment. The market's expectation of further monetary easing converged, but the capital market remained relatively stable, with fluctuations during the tax period. The central bank's open market operations were mainly net withdrawals, but turned to net injections during the tax period, and a 6M repurchase agreement was implemented on the tax day. The capital interest rates were close to the bottom, rising slightly on the first tax day. Large banks' net lending reached a new high, and the yield spread of certificates of deposit (CDs) in the primary and secondary markets fluctuated narrowly, indicating limited pressure on banks' liabilities [1]. - The Q2 2025 Monetary Policy Report confirmed sufficient liquidity, suggesting that interest rates may remain low and fluctuate within a narrow range, with limited room for further decline. The central bank may be cautious in using aggregate tools, focusing more on implementing existing policies and improving the transmission mechanism, and paying attention to non-interest financing costs. The fundamental purpose of the financial system to serve the real economy may be more prominent, and the market should not over - interpret short - term liquidity changes [1]. - Next week, the capital market is expected to remain stable, with limited upward pressure on interest rates and a need for more policy signals to break through the lower limit. The maturity scale of reverse repurchases and CDs will decrease, and the influencing factors will be staggered, making the market fluctuations controllable. The coordinated monetary and fiscal policies will ensure sufficient liquidity supply. Interest rates may continue to show "low - volatility and rigidity", and it is unlikely to break through the previous low in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Capital Market Steady State - This week, the capital market remained comfortable, with minor fluctuations during the tax period. The central bank's open - market operations were mainly net withdrawals from Monday to Thursday, but turned to net injections on August 15, the tax deadline, along with a 5000 - billion - yuan 6M repurchase agreement. Capital interest rates were "low - level and low - volatility", rising on the first tax day. Large banks' net lending remained high, and CD prices were stable, indicating limited pressure on banks' liabilities [11]. - The continuous loosening of capital in August was due to the phased injection of repurchase agreements and the fact that August is not a major tax - paying month, with lower tax revenues and reduced mid - month payment pressure [18][20]. - The Q2 2025 Monetary Policy Report was more positive about the domestic economy, emphasizing strategic stability. The central bank may continue to "targeted and precise" regulation, with short - term liquidity remaining stable. The central bank is concerned about financial risk prevention, may be cautious in using aggregate tools, and will focus on supporting the real economy through structural policies. The market should not over - interpret short - term liquidity changes [21][22]. - Next week, the capital market is expected to be stable. The pressure will ease as the maturity scale of reverse repurchases, government bonds, and CDs decreases. The influencing factors will be staggered, and with the coordinated policies, there is no need to worry about liquidity. Interest rates are likely to remain "low - level and low - volatility", and it is difficult to break through the previous low without additional liquidity or policy support [25]. 3.2. Open Market Operations - From August 11 - 15, the open - market net injection was 85.1 billion yuan, including 711.8 billion yuan in 7 - day reverse repurchases, 1126.7 billion yuan in maturities, and 500 billion yuan in 6M repurchase agreements. From August 18 - 22, the open - market maturity will be 931.8 billion yuan, including 711.8 billion yuan in 7 - day reverse repurchases and 220 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits [31]. - The reverse repurchase balance continued to decline. As of August 15, it was 711.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 414.9 billion yuan from August 8. In August, the Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) will mature for 300 billion yuan, and repurchase agreements will mature for 900 billion yuan (400 billion yuan for 3M and 500 billion yuan for 6M). The net injection of repurchase agreements was 300 billion yuan [33][35]. 3.3. Government Bonds - This week, the net payment of government bonds was 460.4 billion yuan, including 310.3 billion yuan in treasury bond issuance, 91.4 billion yuan in local bond issuance, 95.6 billion yuan in treasury bond maturities, and 73.2 billion yuan in local bond maturities. Next week, the planned issuance of government bonds is 731.2 billion yuan, including 362 billion yuan in treasury bonds and 369.2 billion yuan in local bonds, with 40.1 billion yuan in treasury bond maturities and 167.9 billion yuan in local bond maturities. The net payment of treasury bonds will be 84.9 billion yuan, and that of local bonds will be 179.2 billion yuan [38]. - This week, the net issuance of treasury bonds was 214.6 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 4555.5 billion yuan this year, reaching 74% of the annual plan. The issuance of new local bonds was 248.8 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 3454.4 billion yuan, reaching 66% of the annual plan [39]. 3.4. Excess Reserve Tracking and Prediction - It is predicted that the excess reserve ratio in August 2025 will be about 1.32%, a decrease of about 0.08 percentage points from July and 0.09 percentage points from the same period last year. The predicted excess reserve at the end of July was 4413.6 billion yuan. From August 11 - 15, the open - market net injection was 85.1 billion yuan, the net payment of government bonds was 460.4 billion yuan, the predicted fiscal revenue - expenditure difference was - 120 billion yuan, the reserve requirement was 2.62 billion yuan, and the tax payment was 998.5 billion yuan [44][45]. 3.5. Money Market - Interest rates increased. As of August 15, compared with August 8, DR001 increased by 9.03 basis points to 1.4%, DR007 increased by 5.47 basis points to 1.48%, R001 increased by 9.78 basis points to 1.44%, and R007 increased by 3.2 basis points to 1.49%. Overnight interest rates hovered around 1.4%. The spreads between various interest rates and the OMO rate also changed [47]. - The weekly average of SHIBOR overnight and 7 - day interest rates changed by 1.67 basis points and 0.21 basis points to 1.33% and 1.44% respectively. The weekly average of CNH HIBOR overnight and 7 - day interest rates changed by 27.57 basis points and 7.13 basis points to 1.49% and 1.53% respectively. The weekly average of FR007S1Y and FR007S5Y interest rates changed by - 0.58 basis points and 0.71 basis points to 1.52% and 1.57% respectively. The weekly average of six - month national and city commercial bill transfer rates changed by - 0.03 percentage points to 0.65% and 0.76% respectively [52][55]. - The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 8151.4 billion yuan, an increase of 42.3 billion yuan from August 4 - 8. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's new pledged treasury bond repurchase was 2084.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 101.8 billion yuan from August 4 - 8 [57]. - This week, the average net lending of the banking system was 3.78 trillion yuan, a decrease of 153.3 billion yuan from last week. Among them, the average net lending of large state - owned banks was 4.53 trillion yuan, an increase of 105 billion yuan from last week, with an overnight lending ratio of 97%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points from last week. The average net lending of other banks was - 0.75 trillion yuan, a decrease of 258.3 billion yuan from last week [60]. 3.6. Certificates of Deposit (CDs) - This week (August 11 - 15), the total issuance of CDs was 774.7 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 130.3 billion yuan, a decrease compared with last week. By issuer, state - owned banks had the highest issuance scale, and city commercial banks had the highest net financing. By maturity, 1 - year CDs had the highest issuance scale, and 9 - month CDs had the highest net financing [69]. - The weighted average issuance term of CDs this week was 8.09 months, longer than last week's 6.4 months. Among different types of banks, state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks had weighted average issuance terms of 9.8, 8.1, 6.7, and 7.4 months respectively, with corresponding changes of 3.31, 0.67, 0.52, and 0.91 months from last week [73]. - In terms of issuance success rates, joint - stock banks had the highest success rate. By maturity, 1 - month CDs had the highest success rate, and by credit rating, AA - rated CDs had the highest success rate [75]. - Next week (August 18 - 24), the maturity scale of CDs will be 797.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 107.7 billion yuan from this week. The maturity is mainly concentrated in state - owned banks and city commercial banks, and the terms are mainly 1 - year and 3 - month [78][79].

Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation on August 8, injecting a net of 696 billion yuan into the market, maintaining a loose liquidity environment [1] - On August 11, the central bank had a significant net withdrawal of 432.8 billion yuan, but interbank liquidity remained stable with minimal price fluctuations [2] - Throughout the week, the central bank continued to withdraw funds, with net withdrawals of 46.1 billion yuan on August 12, 20 billion yuan on August 13, and 32 billion yuan on August 14, while the overall funding prices remained stable [2] Economic Indicators - In the U.S., July's unadjusted CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, while the adjusted CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, aligning with expectations [4] - The U.S. customs tariff revenue reached a record high of 28 billion dollars in July, a year-on-year increase of 273%, but this did not prevent the expansion of the federal budget deficit [4] - Domestic financial data for July showed a decrease in RMB loans by 50 billion yuan, with social financing increasing by 1.16 trillion yuan, indicating weak private sector demand [4][5] Market Performance - The stock market has shown strong performance since July, influenced by rising commodity prices amid a "de-involution" backdrop, although the bond market faced some short-term disturbances [5] - The overall financial data for July is considered weak, with a notable decline in corporate medium to long-term loans, suggesting that real demand in the economy still needs to be strengthened [5]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 128.7 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on August 14, with a fixed interest rate of 1.40% and a bid amount of 128.7 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 32 billion yuan for the day [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market remained stable, with a slight tightening in liquidity. The overnight repurchase weighted rate (DR001) increased slightly to 1.31%, while the overnight quotes for non-bank institutions rose to around 1.45% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the US was reported at 4.36% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit was around 1.64%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [7] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank bonds showed various rates, with one-year government bonds at 1.3750% and ten-year government bonds at 1.7320% [10] - The 30-year main contract for government bonds fell by 0.36%, marking a new low in over four months [13] Group 5: Recent Developments - The central bank plans to conduct a 500 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on August 15, with a six-month term [14] - China Ping An's investment in China Pacific Insurance was described as a routine financial investment by a company representative [14] - South Korea's fiscal deficit exceeded 94 trillion won (approximately 68.2 billion USD) in the first half of the year, indicating a need to boost domestic demand [16]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 128.7 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net withdrawal of 32 billion yuan due to 160.7 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for overnight remained unchanged at 1.3150%, while the 7-day Shibor decreased by 0.80 basis points to 1.4260%, and the 14-day Shibor increased by 1.90 basis points to 1.4920% [2][3] Group 2 - In the interbank pledged repo market, the overnight and 14-day rates saw slight increases, while the 7-day transaction volume decreased. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 rose by 0.1 basis points and 0.3 basis points, respectively, while DR007 and R007 rates fell by 1.0 basis points and 0.2 basis points [4] - As of 5:30 PM on August 14, there were 65 interbank certificates of deposit issued, with a total issuance amount of 157.4 billion yuan. The primary market showed active trading sentiment, while the secondary market remained generally stable with yields fluctuating within a range [10] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China announced plans to conduct a 500 billion yuan fixed-quantity, interest-rate tendered, multi-price reverse repurchase operation on August 15, 2025, with a term of 6 months (182 days) to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [12]

Market Overview and Analysis - The primary market saw the issuance of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds amounting to 468.6 billion, 165.5 billion, and 174.5 billion respectively, with net financing of 338.6 billion, 82.8 billion, and 174.5 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) totaled an issuance of 132.0 billion with a net financing of 12.5 billion [1] - Non-financial credit bonds had an issuance of 357.9 billion and a net financing of 198.7 billion [1] - One new convertible bond was issued with an expected financing scale of 1.17 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - The bond market showed resilience amidst a strong stock market environment, influenced by factors such as the month-end liquidity, new VAT policies, and central bank's buyout operations [2] Liquidity Tracking - Post month-end, the liquidity naturally eased, and the central bank's announcement of buyout reverse repos further supported new bond issuance, leading to an overnight funding rate dropping below 1.3%, which pushed down funding prices [3] - The R001 and R007 rates decreased by 1.3 basis points and 3.3 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [3] Policy and Fundamentals - July economic data indicated resilient export growth, with core CPI rising for five consecutive months, although the anti-involution policy slightly hindered PPI transmission [4] - High-frequency data showed a slight decline in production and sustained low levels in consumption, with both food and commodity prices decreasing [4] Overseas Market - The easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict improved market risk sentiment, while deviations in U.S. Treasury auctions put pressure on U.S. bonds, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury closing at 4.27%, up 4 basis points from the previous week [5] Equity Market - The market returned to an upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, while the overall A-share market rose by 1.94% with reduced trading volume, maintaining an average daily trading volume of 1.7 trillion [6] - As of August 7, 2025, the total financing balance for the entire A-share market was 1,998.9 billion, an increase of 27.9 billion from July 31 [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - In a low-interest-rate environment, traditional allocations of new funds by residents and institutions towards deposits and bonds are beginning to shift towards assets with rights, forming the basis for the stock market bull run this year [7] - This behavior will not change the downward trend of bond market interest rates but may delay the speed of decline and increase short-term volatility [7] - With the impact of the VAT recovery subsiding, the 10-year bond yield may return below 1.7%, potentially weakening market bullish sentiment [7] - The further downward space for interest rates depends on the central bank's continued support for new bond issuances affected by VAT and the pace of stock market increases [7] - For credit bonds, a relatively loose liquidity environment remains favorable, but attention should be paid to the issue of excessive narrowing of credit spreads [7] - In the convertible bond market, following the rollback of previous anti-involution expectations, there is renewed selection space for convertible bonds, with high-priced bonds not entering conversion periods and those not strongly redeemed gradually moving towards dual highs, maintaining a good overall profit effect [7] - It is important to note that the current risk-reward asymmetry has weakened, and some volatility is inevitable, making participation more challenging for low-volatility strategy investors [7]