新华财经北京1月29日电债市周四（1月29日）延续横盘整理，上日"小作文"一度改善交投情绪，但午后 期限券重回偏弱波动，国债期货全线收跌，银行间现券收益率上行幅度在0.5BP以内；公开市场单日净 投放1438亿元，资金利率走势有所分化。 业内人士认为，资金面本周较为平稳，料跨月流动性压力有限。传言中针对银行的"隔夜逆回购"措施， 机构认为有一定可能，但关键还在于其定位。总体而言，此次传闻对债市更多是情绪上的扰动，趋势性 利好有限。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘多数上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.07%报112.17，10年期主力合约涨0.06%报108.25，5年期 主力合约涨0.01%报105.875，2年期主力合约持平于102.394。 亚洲市场方面，日债收益率上行居多，仅超长端收益率延续回落，5年期和10年期日债收益率上行1.3BP 和1.7BP，30年期日债收益率下行1BP。 欧元区市场方面，当地时间1月27日，10年期法债收益率涨0.1BP报3.435%，10年期德债收益率涨0.8BP 报2.873%，10年期意债收益率涨0.3BP报3.467%，10年期西债收益率涨0.2BP报3.229%。其他市场方 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is maintaining a stable liquidity environment through various monetary policy tools, with a significant increase in mid-term liquidity injections in January 2023, despite a relatively modest net injection in the short term [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - On January 28, the PBOC conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 377.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 14 billion yuan after 363.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1]. - The total net injection for the week reached 84.2 billion yuan, indicating a cautious approach to liquidity management [1]. - The PBOC's operations in January included a net injection of 300 billion yuan through reverse repos and 700 billion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), totaling a net injection of 1 trillion yuan for the month, significantly higher than December's 300 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Liquidity and Interest Rates - As of January 28, the overnight repo rate (DR001) slightly decreased to 1.367% from 1.3674%, while the 7-day repo rate (DR007) fell to 1.5479% from 1.5833%, reflecting a stable liquidity environment [2]. - The PBOC's proactive measures, including the early renewal of MLF, indicate a strong intention to support the liquidity in the market, especially ahead of the Chinese New Year [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to February, potential liquidity disturbances are anticipated due to increased cash withdrawals before the Spring Festival and sustained high levels of government bond issuance [3]. - The PBOC is expected to implement 14-day reverse repos and continue flexible operations with reverse repos and MLF to inject mid-term liquidity into the market [3]. - Despite the low probability of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in the short term, the liquidity environment is expected to remain stable, with controlled volatility in both DR007 and DR001 rates [3].

Market Overview - The bond market showed signs of warming up with a general decline in interbank bond yields, particularly for government bonds with maturities of 5 years and above, where the 10-year government bond yield approached 1.81% [1] - The net injection in the open market was 14 billion yuan, leading to a decline in short-term funding rates across the board [1] Bond Futures - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.07% to 112.09, the 10-year main contract up by 0.05% to 108.21, and the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.06% to 105.87 [2] - The China Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.50% to 531.58 points, with notable increases in several convertible bonds, including N Lianrui and Jinjiji bonds, which rose by 30.00% and 13.82% respectively [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed results, with the 2-year yield rising by 0.64 basis points to 3.596% and the 10-year yield increasing by 2.79 basis points to 4.243% [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year government bonds also increased, with French bonds rising by 0.1 basis points to 3.435% and German bonds up by 0.8 basis points to 2.873% [3] Primary Market - The Export-Import Bank's 2-year and 3-year financial bonds had winning yields of 1.5501% and 1.6044%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 5.34 and 4.54 [4] - The Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region's local bonds showed strong demand, with bid-to-cover ratios exceeding 15 times for both the 20-year and 30-year bonds [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a total amount of 377.5 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 14 billion yuan for the day [5] - Short-term Shibor rates declined across the board, with the overnight rate down by 0.5 basis points to 1.366% [5] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities noted that long-term government bonds are primarily priced by funds, which have significant holdings and trading volumes, while rural commercial banks have weaker pricing power [6] - Huaxi Fixed Income pointed out that the current interest rate decline is driven by a supply-demand mismatch, with banks increasing their allocations in the secondary market [7] - Zhejiang Commercial Bank indicated that while this week is a data vacuum period, supply pressure from government bonds will gradually emerge, and the market is sensitive to negative news [7]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a mostly positive trend, with the main contract for tin futures opening at 447,000.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 462,000.00 CNY, marking a 2.05% increase [1] - The current tin market is exhibiting a strong upward trend, with various institutions providing insights on future price movements [2] Group 2 - Hualian Futures noted that the domestic economy shows resilience, with increased demand from the semiconductor and new energy vehicle sectors, while overseas uncertainties remain, and there are expectations for future interest rate cuts [2] - Zhonghui Futures indicated that supply constraints from overseas tin mines persist, while domestic smelting plants are operating steadily; however, high prices are suppressing downstream replenishment demand, leading to a balanced supply and demand situation [2] - Copper Crown Jinyuan Futures analyzed that while tin ore supply has improved month-on-month, the overall tight supply situation has not significantly changed, and the market is experiencing a slow recovery in inventories [2]

中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2026-01-28 股债趋势暂不明朗 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 股指期货：午后情绪回暖 股指期权：短期暂维持乐观 国债期货：债市⻓端⾛势偏弱 股指期货方面，权益市场底部回升，主要宽基指数收红居多，其中军 工、电子、传媒领涨，TMT板块全面修复，风格方面，科创板强势，哑铃 结构弱势，上涨个股数量少于下跌个股数量，个股赚钱效应不佳。展望后 市，短线走势目前仍不明朗，尽管急跌可能性不大，但近期热点板块轮动 速度过快，并拖累整体赚钱效应，叠加外围市场不确定性以及宽基ETF减 持，目前仍处于上涨过程中的休整阶段，不宜过度高估短期空间。配置 上，配置IC多单度过震荡期，机构定价权强化、通胀预期上行是其核心推 动力。 股指期权方面，昨日标的市场整体上行，日内出现一定风格切换，中 盘成长相关品种重新占优，期权市场成交量相较前一交易日略有下滑，但 整体仍位于高位区间。情绪指标方面，前一日提到各品种偏度普遍低位， 昨日有一定反弹，但主要以再度强势的500ETF、科创50ETF为主，其余品 种仍有买方资金继续博弈上行，短期情绪整体还是乐观。波动率层面，大 盘品种小幅下行，中 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The impact of corporate foreign exchange settlement with banks on the capital market is slightly negative, while banks' foreign exchange settlement with the central bank significantly benefits the capital market. Attention should be paid to changes in the central bank's operations. Foreign exchange settlement can relieve the pressure of insufficient general deposits in banks and support certificate of deposit (CD) interest rates. The key influencing factors are the rhythm of banks' foreign exchange settlement with the central bank and changes in the central bank's investment scale [5][8][10]. - Last week, the bond market continued its recovery, with interest rates, especially long - term yields, dropping rapidly. The stock market sentiment was suppressed, and the central bank's net investment was large. Short - term trading was crowded initially, and then institutions shifted to long - term bonds, driving down long - term interest rates [5][41]. - In terms of high - frequency data, most production - side operating rates declined, demand - side indicators such as passenger car sales and real estate transactions were weak, and price trends were mixed [5][48][49]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint - The impact of foreign exchange settlement on the capital market and CD interest rates is positive. Theoretically, as long as the proportion of banks' foreign exchange settlement with the central bank exceeds the legal deposit reserve ratio (currently 6.3%), foreign exchange settlement benefits the capital market. The actual data also shows a correlation where more foreign exchange settlement leads to a looser capital market [5][10][12]. - Foreign exchange settlement increases the general deposit scale of banks, relieves CD financing pressure, and thus supports CD interest rates [10]. 3.2 This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market - This week, China will release January PMI. The US, Canada, and the Eurozone will also announce relevant economic data and central bank decisions [13][14]. - This week, the planned issuance of interest - rate bonds is expected to be around 609.3 billion yuan, including 439.3 billion yuan of local bonds and about 170 billion yuan of policy - bank bonds, with no planned issuance of national bonds [14][16]. 3.3 Review and Outlook of Interest - Rate Bonds 3.3.1 High - Level Open - Market Operations - Last week, the central bank's open - market operations had a high investment scale. Reverse repurchase investment first increased and then decreased, with a total investment of about 1.18 trillion yuan and a net investment of 229.5 billion yuan. MLF had a maturity of 200 billion yuan last week, and 900 billion yuan was invested, maintaining a high net investment in medium - and long - term liquidity. Considering the maturity of treasury deposits of 150 billion yuan, the total net investment in open - market operations last week was 979.5 billion yuan [20][22]. - The capital market fluctuated significantly, with capital interest rates mostly rising. Repurchase trading volume fluctuated, and overnight interest rates and DR007 both increased [22][23]. - CD prices adjusted according to the market, and secondary yields dropped rapidly. The net financing of CDs last week was - 116.9 billion yuan. The proportion of medium - term CDs increased, and long - term proportions decreased. Secondary yields of most CDs declined [29]. 3.3.2 Continued Sharp Decline in Bond Market Interest Rates - Last week, the bond market's recovery sentiment continued, with long - term yields dropping rapidly. The 10 - year treasury bond and CDB active bonds decreased by - 1.1bp and - 2.9bp respectively compared to the previous week. Most yields of interest - rate bonds at various maturities declined, except for the 1 - year treasury bond, which rebounded by about 4bp. The 10 - year CDB bond yield had the largest decline, about 4.2bp [5][41]. 3.4 High - Frequency Data - On the production side, most operating rates declined, including blast furnace, PTA, and asphalt operating rates, while the semi - steel tire operating rate increased. The daily average crude steel output in early January had a narrowing year - on - year decline [48]. - On the demand side, passenger car wholesale and retail sales continued to have a large year - on - year decline. The real estate market was weak, with a significant year - on - year decline in the transaction area of commercial housing. Export indices also decreased [48]. - In terms of prices, crude oil prices continued to rise, copper and aluminum prices diverged, and coal prices showed different trends. The prices of mid - stream building materials declined, and the prices of downstream consumer products such as vegetables and pork showed different changes [49].

Group 1: Market Overview - The central bank conducted a 7-day OMO injection of 402 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 78 billion yuan, indicating a marginal improvement in liquidity [1] - The bond market experienced a mixed performance, with a divergence between long-term and short-term bonds, as the market remained in a narrow fluctuation range [1] - The overall sentiment in the bond market was cautious, influenced by the stock market's volatility, leading to a general decline in bond prices [2] Group 2: Interest Rates and Yield Movements - The yield on the 10-year government bond rose by 0.45 basis points to 1.8295%, while the 30-year bond yield increased by 1.35 basis points to 2.2555% [1] - The Shibor rates showed a mixed trend, with the overnight Shibor declining to 1.3710%, down by 4.90 basis points, while the 1-month Shibor remained relatively stable [3] - The bond market saw a decrease in trading volume, with the total transaction scale dropping by 28.9 billion yuan to 207.8 billion yuan [3] Group 3: REITs Market Performance - The public REITs market showed a slight increase, with the index rising by 0.08% to 1045.72 points, reflecting a cumulative increase of 3.55% for the year [4] - There was significant divergence within the REITs sector, with consumer and high-speed sectors leading gains, while industrial park and innovation sectors faced declines [4] - The total trading volume in the REITs market increased by 23.35% to 666 million yuan, indicating a neutral trading environment [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Policy cools market speculative sentiment, leading to stock index oscillations, but short - term adjustment space is limited, and long - term bulls can enter the market at appropriate times. Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks. With the US suspending key mineral taxes, copper prices are oscillating strongly. Various factors influence different commodities, and specific trading strategies are recommended for each [1]. Summary by Industry and Variety Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Policy cools speculative sentiment, causing oscillations. Short - term adjustment space is small, and long - term bulls can enter at opportune moments [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank warns of short - term interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the US suspending key mineral taxes, short - term concerns ease, and copper prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - **Alumina**: Industry drive is limited, but macro sentiment improves. Domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: The cost center is stable, and prices fluctuate in a range. Look for high - selling and low - buying opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: Supply concerns persist due to various factors, and prices are strong in the short term. Long - term high inventory may have a suppressing effect. Short - term buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply concerns persist, raw material prices rise, and social inventory decreases slightly. Futures are at a high level, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. Short - term low - buying is recommended [1]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment improves. Although there is a negative news, supply increase in the first quarter is limited, and there is upward potential [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and strong fundamentals support prices, but there is a risk of profit - taking during the Fed's meeting [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Macro factors support prices in the short term, but fluctuations are large. In the long term, platinum has a supply - demand gap, and palladium tends to have a loose supply. Unilateral low - buying of platinum or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy is recommended [1]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Northwest production increases, and Southwest production decreases. December production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon decline [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are factors such as the off - season for new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and battery export rush [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: Expectations are strong, but spot is weak, and the rally momentum is insufficient. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: High production and inventory suppress price increases. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is a sector rotation, but there is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long is not recommended [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: There is a mix of weak reality and strong expectations. Supply may be affected by energy - consumption control and anti - involution. Short - term sentiment is warm, but medium - term supply is excessive [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract. After the first round of coke price increase fails, the price breaks through key supports, and the previous low - buying strategy may change [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Main consumer countries start purchasing, and there may be production cuts and inventory reduction in the origin. It is expected to be strongly oscillating [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Fundamentals are strong, and long - position allocation in oils is recommended. Consider the long Y - short O1 spread [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: There are negative factors, but it is difficult to fall smoothly due to the strength of soybean and palm oils. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is production expectation, and the purchase price supports the cost. Downstream demand has rigid replenishment needs. The market is in a state of "supported but lacking drive" [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. There is a consensus on short - selling, and cost support is strong if prices fall [1]. - **Corn**: The selling progress in Northeast China is fast, and there is inventory - replenishment demand before the festival. The price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Soybeans**: Brazil's harvest may bring selling pressure, and Argentina's dry weather may cause short - term speculation. The M05 is expected to be weakly oscillating [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Affected by the macro decline, it falls but does not break the oscillation range. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Spot prices rebound, and the downward space for futures is limited. It is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices stabilize, demand supports, and production capacity needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ suspends production increase, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rise, and US cold weather boosts demand [1]. - **Asphalt**: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be false, and supply is sufficient, with high profits [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong raw - material cost support, and the synthetic - rubber price increase drives the sector [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There is strong support for butadiene, and the market's price - support atmosphere strengthens. It operates with high开工 and high inventory [1]. - **PTA and Short - Fibre**: The PX market drives the rise of chemicals, and there is a large inflow of funds. PTA production increases, and short - fibre prices follow costs [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Overseas prices rebound, and Middle - East exports decrease. There is an increase in speculative demand [1]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand fundamentals improve, and prices rebound. The price spread between styrene and benzene widens, and inventory decreases [1]. - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - **Methanol**: Import is expected to decrease due to the Iranian situation, but there is obvious downstream negative feedback. There are multiple factors in a multi - empty situation [1]. - **PVC**: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the fundamentals are poor. There may be a rush for exports, and capacity may be cleared [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Macro sentiment fades, and the market focuses on fundamentals. Fundamentals are weak, and there is inventory - building pressure [1]. - **LPG**: February CP is expected to rise, and there is cost support. Inventory decreases, and the heating market is expected to start [1]. Others - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: It is expected to peak in mid - January. Airlines are cautious about resuming flights, and there is pre - festival inventory - replenishment demand [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - A-share market experiences a decline after continuous volume increase, with large and small-cap stocks diverging, and the market is expected to enter a volatile trend. The bond market lacks a trading theme, and the 10-year Treasury bond rate may face downward resistance around 1.8% - 1.82%. Gold prices are supported by geopolitical events and remain strongly volatile. Most commodity futures have their own supply - demand situations and corresponding market trends [2] 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Stock Index Futures - The A-share market has large trading differences after a continuous volume increase, trading volume begins to shrink, market sentiment cools down, and the market is expected to enter a volatile trend. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, take profits on some profitable contracts, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [2] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market has a marginal convergence, and the central bank increases MLF issuance. The bond market lacks a trading theme, and the 10-year Treasury bond rate may face downward resistance around 1.8% - 1.82%. It is recommended to use range - bound trading for unilateral strategies and not to chase high prices. For spot - futures strategies, pay attention to positive arbitrage and widening basis strategies [2] 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold prices remain strongly volatile but with increased fluctuations. After the correction, long positions above the 20 - day moving average can be held, and profits can be locked at high levels. It is recommended to buy on dips, and platinum can be bought on dips when it retraces to the 20 - day moving average [2] 3.4 Ferrous Metals - Steel has weak supply and demand, and steel prices maintain a volatile trend. Iron ore supply faces the off - season and port inventories continue to accumulate. Coking coal prices in Shanxi rise more than fall, while Mongolian coal prices fall from highs. Coke prices are proposed to be raised by mainstream coke enterprises, but port trading prices fall. Silicon - iron and manganese - silicon have improved supply - demand margins. It is recommended to take corresponding trading strategies such as range - bound trading, shorting at highs, and arbitrage [2] 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper's CL premium narrows, and inventories continue to accumulate. Alumina rebounds slightly due to production cut news. Aluminum is volatile, and there is a risk of an emotional correction in the short term. Zinc's downstream procurement recovers, and the spot premium stabilizes. Tin has a wide - range intraday volatility. Nickel has support from nickel ore quota disturbances. Stainless steel is strongly volatile. Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures are strongly volatile. It is recommended to take corresponding trading strategies such as waiting for adjustments to enter long positions, range - bound trading, and arbitrage [2] 3.6 New Energy and Chemicals - Lithium carbonate has a resurgence of supply - side disturbance expectations and is strongly trending. PX has a short - term high - level volatility. PTA follows raw material fluctuations. Short - fiber and bottle - chip follow raw material trends. Ethanol rebounds. Benzene and styrene have limited upward space due to high inventories. LLDPE has good upstream orders. PP has weak supply and demand and is weakly volatile. Methanol prices are strong but with average trading. Caustic soda rebounds from oversold levels. PVC may enter wide - range volatility. Urea has a weak supply - demand pattern. Soda ash is expected to continue to decline in a volatile manner. Glass is weak in the off - season. Natural rubber prices rise, and synthetic rubber rebounds strongly. It is recommended to take corresponding trading strategies such as range - bound trading, shorting at highs, and taking profits on long positions [2] 3.7 Agricultural Products - Soybean meal has strong bottom support. Pork has increased supply pressure. Corn has both support and pressure and is in a high - level volatile trend. Palm oil may try to break through 8900. Sugar has a weak trading situation. Cotton can be bought on dips. Eggs are in a volatile range. Apples rebound due to Spring Festival demand. Orange juice futures are weakly volatile. It is recommended to take corresponding trading strategies such as range - bound trading, participating in the rebound lightly, and selling long - term call options [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The stock market focuses on the price - rising chain, and the bond market is in a long - short game. The stock index futures are desensitized to negative factors, the stock index options should appropriately supplement call options for defense, and the bond market in the treasury bond futures has a long - short game with a slight decline [1]. - For stock index futures, the equity market oscillated upward on Thursday. The market is desensitized to the sporadic selling of broad - based ETFs. The ChiNext and STAR Market are the best in style, while the SSE 50 is weak. Resource stocks have become market hotspots, and the value of resource products is re - evaluated. In the future, institutional funds are expected to take over the pricing power, and the CSI 500 and ChiNext/STAR Market styles have comparative advantages [1][7]. - For stock index options, the trading volume of each option variety mostly declined, while the open interest increased. Some investors may trade call options for hedging. It is recommended to sell call options for covered增厚 and appropriately supplement call options for defense in the short term [1][7]. - For treasury bond futures, the main contracts of treasury bond futures closed down. The bond market sentiment cooled but was not very weak. After the market closed, the central bank's MLF over - renewal and the statement about the space for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts improved the sentiment of the ultra - long - term bond market. After the MLF over - renewal and the end of the large tax period, the capital may be relaxed [2][8]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **View**: Desensitized to negative factors [7] - **Logic**: The equity market oscillated upward on Thursday. The market is desensitized to the sporadic selling of broad - based ETFs. The ChiNext and STAR Market are the best in style, while the SSE 50 is weak. The impact of the adjustment of implicit margin for margin trading is weakening. Resource stocks have become market hotspots, and the value of resource products is re - evaluated. In the future, the influence of regulatory cooling will gradually weaken, and the market will be driven by funds. Institutional funds are expected to take over the pricing power, and the CSI 500 and ChiNext/STAR Market styles have comparative advantages [1][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold IC [7] - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly [7] Stock Index Options - **View**: Supplement call options for defense in the short term [7] - **Logic**: The trading volume of each option variety mostly declined, while the open interest increased. Considering the weak option sentiment index and the strengthening of implied volatility, it is speculated that some investors trade call options for hedging. It is recommended to sell call options for covered增厚 and appropriately supplement call options for defense in the short term [1][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Covered strategy [7] - **Outlook**: Oscillate [7] Treasury Bond Futures - **View**: Long - short game, slight decline in the bond market [8] - **Logic**: The main contracts of treasury bond futures closed down. The bond market sentiment cooled but was not very weak. The improvement of the equity market sentiment, the tightening of the overnight capital due to the tax payment and the small net injection of reverse repurchase by the central bank, and the stable open interest of the main futures contracts and the support from the cash bond allocation disk led to a limited adjustment. After the market closed, the central bank's MLF over - renewal and the statement about the space for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts improved the sentiment of the ultra - long - term bond market. After the MLF over - renewal and the end of the large tax period, the capital may be relaxed [2][8] - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: oscillate; Hedging strategy: pay attention to short - hedging at the low basis; Basis strategy: pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of TL; Curve strategy: the curve may flatten first and then steepen [8] - **Outlook**: Oscillate [8]