Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - From November 17 to 21, 2025, the central bank conducted net 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and had 12 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits mature. The government bond net payment scale decreased slightly in the week of November 17 - 23 compared to the previous week. The yield of maturing inter - bank certificates of deposit (ICDs) remained stable overall, and the average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was basically stable. The estimated median durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds decreased by 0.60 years and 0.20 years respectively on a weekly basis as of November 21, 2025 [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Funding Situation - **Central Bank Operations**: From November 17 to 21, 2025, the central bank conducted 167.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 112.2 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 55.4 billion yuan, and 12 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits matured. From November 24 to 28, 112.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases will mature, 12 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits will be operated on the 24th, and 90 billion yuan of medium - term lending facilities (MLF) will mature on the 25th [6]. - **Funding Rate Fluctuations**: From November 17 to 21, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.43% and 1.49% respectively, up 0.9 and 1.9 basis points compared to November 10 - 14. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.50% and 1.52% respectively, up 0.8 and 1.5 basis points compared to November 10 - 14. The funding rate was high at the beginning of the week and then decreased, mainly due to factors such as high government bond net payment, tax payments, and frozen funds from new stock listings on the Beijing Stock Exchange. Towards the end of November, the impact of government bond payments on the funding situation is expected to be low, but the impact of cross - quarter funding needs attention [7]. - **Government Bond Net Financing**: From November 17 to 23, 2025, the government bond net payment scale was about 41.057 billion yuan, a decrease of about 1.42 billion yuan compared to November 10 - 16. The net financing of treasury bonds was about 29.533 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds was about 11.524 billion yuan. From November 24 to 30, the government bond net payment scale is expected to be 23.38 billion yuan, with treasury bond net financing at about - 5.61 billion yuan and local government bond net financing at about 28.99 billion yuan [7]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Yield Stability**: As of November 21, 2025, the maturing yields of 1 - month and 3 - month ICDs were 1.4900% and 1.5735% respectively, down 0.5 and 0.2 basis points compared to November 14. The 1 - year ICD maturing yield remained unchanged at 1.6350% compared to November 14 [8]. - **Net Financing**: From November 17 to 23, 2025, the net financing of ICDs was about - 37.32 billion yuan, compared to about - 4.27 billion yuan in the week of November 10 - 16. Although the net financing was negative, the actual issuance scale was not low due to the high maturing scale. The estimated maturing repayment of ICDs from November 24 to 30 is 80.2 billion yuan, down from 90.7 billion yuan in the previous week, indicating a reduced pressure on roll - over [8]. 3. Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio in the Inter - bank Bond Market**: From November 17 to 21, 2025, the estimated average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was 107.15%, compared to 107.16% in the week of November 10 - 14. The estimated leverage ratios on November 21 and November 14 were about 107.31% and 107.15% respectively [9]. - **Duration of Bond Funds**: As of November 21, 2025, the estimated median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - rate style pure bond funds was 4.23 years, down 0.60 years on a weekly basis, at the 79.8% percentile since early 2022. The estimated median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds was 1.63 years, down 0.20 years on a weekly basis, at the 30.0% percentile since early 2022 [9].

华西宏观 （四）票据市场：利率转为上行，大行转为净卖出 截止11月21日，1M票据较前一周上行28bp至1.08%，3M上行18bp至0.58%，6M上行14bp至0.77%。在此 期间（11月17-20日），大行净卖出235亿元，11月累计净买入774亿元（去年同期累计净买入2058亿 元）。 （五）政府债：11月24-28日，净缴款2237亿元 （一）概况：税期，资金面起波澜 11月17-21日，资金面波澜再起，周初（17-18日）受税期、政府债缴款及北交所打新等因素影响，资金 面显著承压，R001迅速攀升至1.57%，R007也升至1.53%。周三起，随着央行持续加力投放，且税期走 款即将结束，资金利率迎来下行。直至周五，资金利率才回归合理定价，R001回落至1.39%，低于 OMO利率，R007也逐步下行至1.50%水平。 （二）展望：跨月周，资金面风浪依旧未平 下周（11月24-28日）进入跨月周，资金面风浪依旧未平。周一（24日）起，拆借7天利率可跨月。参考 今年二季度以来季中月（5月、8月）资金利率在跨月周的变化情况，R007最大上行幅度分别为11、 8bp，而R001多在跨月当日显著上行，幅度 ...

证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2025 11 22 年 月 日 固定收益定期 存单大幅净偿还——流动性和机构行为跟踪 资金整体平稳，价格小幅波动。或由于央行持续呵护，本周资金价格小 幅下降，本周 R001 收于 1.39%（前值 1.43%），DR001 收于 1.32% （前值 1.37%）。R007 收于 1.50%（（前值 1.49%），DR007 收于 1.44% （前值 1.47%）。DR007 与 7 天 OMO 利差收于 4.08bp。6M 国股银票 转贴利率收于 0.77%（前值 0.63%）。 OMO 净投放平稳，国库现金定存将加量续作。本周央行逆回购投放 16760 亿元，逆回购到期 11220 亿元，逆回购净投放 5540 亿元，与 上周净投放量（6262 亿元）相近。11 月 19 日央行公告，11 月 24 日 将开展 1200 亿元 1M 与 800 亿 21D 国库现金定存，加量续作 800 亿 元。 债市缺乏交易主线，债券收益率窄幅震荡。本周受海外信息影响，股 市大幅回调，但债市交易空间仍然有限，债市收益率整体呈现窄幅震 荡趋势。1 年国债收益率下行 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's current policy attitude is similar to that in Q4 2023, with a reduced desire to promote the growth of M2 and social financing. However, the current situation is due to the decline in government bond net financing, and the central bank has no intention to tighten liquidity actively but lacks the willingness to relax it. With the approaching of year - end important meetings, the policy's demand for stable growth may become clearer, and attention should be paid to whether the monetary policy attitude will change [24]. - The funds rate center this week was higher than expected. If the central bank's policy framework remains unchanged, the funds price may loosen marginally at the end of November and next week [28][49]. - The market's attention to the winning bid rate of the repurchase - type reverse repurchase has increased. The central bank may not intentionally raise the winning bid rate, but a significant decline may still require a policy rate cut [20][21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Money Market 1.1 This Week's Funds Review - The central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net injection of 554 billion yuan this week, and an 80 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase - type reverse repurchase operation was carried out on Monday. The monthly net injection of the repurchase - type reverse repurchase increased by 100 billion yuan to 500 billion yuan compared with October. Affected by tax payments and government bond payments, the funds tightened in the first half of the week and then loosened. DR001 reached 1.53% at one point and fell to 1.32% on Friday [3][7]. - The trading volume of pledged repurchase first decreased and then increased, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 0.15 trillion yuan to 7.29 trillion yuan compared with last week. The net lending of large - scale banks first decreased and then increased, returning to 4 trillion yuan on Friday. The net lending of joint - stock banks and city commercial banks increased after Tuesday, but the net lending of joint - stock banks decreased again on Friday. The new - caliber funds gap index reached - 398 on Tuesday and then fell to - 4117 on Friday, lower than - 1918 last Friday [14]. - As of Friday, the cross - month progress of inter - bank institutions was at the lowest level in recent years, and the cross - month progress of the exchange was only higher than that in 2024. The overall cross - month progress of the market was 9.6%, 4.4 percentage points lower than the average from 2020 - 2024 [18]. - After the "Financial Times" mentioned "fund idling", the market's attention to the winning bid rate of the repurchase - type reverse repurchase increased. The 6 - month repurchase - type reverse repurchase injection in November reached 800 billion yuan, with a net injection of 500 billion yuan, reflecting the central bank's intention to maintain sufficient liquidity. However, due to the large maturity of certificates of deposit and banks' high demand for medium - term liquidity across the Spring Festival, the winning bid rate may be affected. The central bank may not intentionally raise the winning bid rate, but a significant decline may require a policy rate cut [20][21]. 1.2 Next Week's Funds Outlook - The expected government bond payment scale next week is 557.3 billion yuan, with a net payment of 308.8 billion yuan, a decrease from this week. It is estimated that the government bond issuance scale in November is 1.94 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 1.25 trillion yuan, an increase of about 720 billion yuan compared with October. It is estimated that the government bond issuance scale in December is about 2.28 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 670 billion yuan [31][38][40]. - The maturity scale of the 7 - day reverse repurchase next week will increase from 1.122 trillion yuan to 1.676 trillion yuan, and there will also be a 900 - billion - yuan MLF maturity on Tuesday. Although the increase in reverse repurchase maturity, government bond payment pressure, and institutions' cross - month funds demand may disturb the funds, the central bank's MLF is expected to be renewed in excess, and the year - end fiscal expenditure may hedge the impact. If the central bank's policy framework remains unchanged, the funds rate may decline next week [49]. II. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The 1 - year Shibor rate remained unchanged at 1.65% this week. The net repayment scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased by 36.97 billion yuan to 38.71 billion yuan compared with last week. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were - 195.9 billion yuan, - 162.7 billion yuan, - 26.7 billion yuan, and - 13.7 billion yuan respectively. The issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit increased to 39%. The maturity scale of certificates of deposit next week is about 775.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 145.8 billion yuan compared with this week [50][52]. - The issuance success rates of rural commercial banks, joint - stock banks, and city commercial banks decreased compared with last week, while that of state - owned banks increased. The issuance spread between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks for 1 - year certificates of deposit narrowed. Affected by the increased funds fluctuations, fund companies tended to reduce their holdings of certificates of deposit, the willingness of money market funds to increase their holdings declined significantly, the demand of wealth management products and other products was relatively stable, and joint - stock banks tended to increase their holdings. The relative strength index of supply and demand for certificates of deposit continued to decline, falling by 4.1 percentage points to 37.7% on Friday, still in a relatively strong range. The supply - demand index of 6 - month certificates of deposit increased, while that of other maturities decreased slightly [53][65]. III. Bill Market - The bill rate continued to rise after Tuesday this week. The 3 - month and 6 - month national bill rates increased by 18BP and 14BP respectively compared with November 14th, reaching 0.58% and 0.77% [70]. IV. Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - The bond market continued to fluctuate narrowly this week, and the credit and secondary - tier perpetual bond spreads were relatively stable. The willingness of large - scale banks to increase their bond holdings decreased slightly, mainly due to the significant weakening of the willingness to increase their holdings of certificates of deposit, a slight decrease in the willingness to increase their holdings of short - term treasury bonds, and an increase in the willingness to reduce their holdings of medium - term notes. Trading - type institutions' willingness to increase their bond holdings increased slightly, while allocation - type institutions' willingness to increase their bond holdings decreased [73].

新华财经北京11月21日电 人民银行21日开展3750亿元7天期逆回购操作，鉴于当日有2128亿元7天期逆回购到期，公开市场实现净投放1622亿元。本周人 民银行共开展16760亿元7天期逆回购操作和8000亿元买断式逆回购操作，因当周有11220亿元7天期逆回购到期，公开市场合计实现净投放5540亿元。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）短期品种全线下行。具体来看，隔夜Shibor下跌4.0BP，报1.3200%；7天Shibor下跌4.30BP，报1.4170%；14天Shibor 下跌2.4BP，报1.5220%。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（11月21日） | | 期限 | Shibor(%) | 涨跌(BP) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | O/N | 1.3200 | 4.40 | | 中 | 1W | 1.4170 | 4.30 | | 4 | 2W | 1.5220 | 2.40 | | 中 | 1M | 1.5190 | 0.10 | | 1 | 3M | 1.5780 | 0.10 | | 1 | 6M | 1.6200 | 0.00 | | | 9M | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic stock index futures show resilience with volatility decreasing. After Q3 reports, A - shares are in repricing adjustment. Short - term fluctuations are common, and it's recommended to wait and see. Consider a bull spread of put options in case of a deep daily decline [2]. - Treasury bond futures had a differentiated performance yesterday. With limited driving forces, the bond market may continue to fluctuate narrowly. A range - trading strategy is recommended [2]. - Gold prices are oscillating between $4000 - $4200 due to mixed US non - farm data and cautious Fed officials. A double - selling strategy for out - of - the - money gold options can be considered. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and short - term observation or light - position trading is advised [2]. - The EC (European line) container shipping index futures are in short - term decline. It's recommended to close short positions [2]. - Steel prices are expected to stabilize with improved apparent demand. Iron ore is oscillating, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. For coking coal and coke, a bearish view is taken with specified price ranges [2]. - Copper prices are oscillating weakly as the probability of interest rate cuts decreases. For various non - ferrous metals, different trading strategies are recommended according to their price trends [2]. - In the new energy and chemical sectors, prices of many products such as polysilicon and PTA are oscillating. Different trading strategies are proposed based on their supply - demand situations [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, prices of products like soybean meal, palm oil, and sugar are showing different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Domestic stock index futures are in a state of repricing adjustment. Short - term fluctuations are normal, and it's recommended to wait and see. A bull spread of put options can be considered in case of a deep daily decline [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to fluctuate narrowly. A range - trading strategy is recommended [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in the $4000 - $4200 range, and a double - selling strategy for out - of - the - money options can be used. Silver follows gold, and short - term observation or light - position trading is advised [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are expected to stabilize with improved apparent demand [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is oscillating. A wait - and - see approach is recommended with a reference range of 750 - 810 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: A bearish view is taken with a price range of 1050 - 1200 [2]. - **Coke**: A bearish view is taken with a price range of 1550 - 1700 [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices are oscillating weakly. The main reference range is 85000 - 86500 [2]. - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals**: Different trading strategies are recommended for various non - ferrous metals according to their price trends [2]. Energy and Chemical - **New Energy and Chemical Products**: Prices of products like polysilicon, PTA, and short - fiber are oscillating, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on supply - demand [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: For products like LLDPE, PP, and PVC, different trading strategies are recommended according to their price trends and supply - demand situations [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and attention should be paid to the support around 3000 [2]. - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil prices are continuing to decline, and the main contract may reach 8900 in the short term [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Different trading strategies are recommended for products like sugar, cotton, and eggs according to their price trends [2].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 300 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on November 20, with a fixed interest rate of 1.40% and a total bid amount of 300 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 110 billion yuan for the day after accounting for 190 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market saw a loosening of funding conditions, with major term repurchase rates declining. The overnight repurchase rate for deposit-taking institutions fell over 5 basis points to around 1.36%, while the overnight quotes on the anonymous X-repo system dropped significantly to 1.35% [3] - There is abundant overnight funding supply, with non-bank institutions borrowing overnight funds at around 1.50%. The end of tax period impacts has led to a recovery in funding conditions, with expectations for further declines in short-term rates [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is at 1.64%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [7] Group 4: Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed a decline in the 30-year main contract by 0.21%, while the 10-year and 5-year main contracts increased by 0.06% each, and the 2-year contract remained unchanged [11] Group 5: LPR and Regulatory Developments - The November LPR remained stable at 3% for the one-year rate and 3.5% for the five-year and above categories. The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the need for stronger institutional frameworks and risk prevention measures during a recent meeting [12] Group 6: Global Macro Developments - Japan plans to introduce a new spending plan amounting to 17.7 trillion yen, necessitating the issuance of more bonds to raise funds. The Japanese Finance Minister highlighted the challenges of balancing inflation, bond yields, and a weak yen [14] Group 7: Bond Market Events - The Export-Import Bank plans to auction up to 2 billion yuan of 3-year floating rate bonds on November 21. The bond market's "technology board" remains active, with a cumulative issuance scale of nearly 1.5 trillion yuan this year [16]

1. Report Summary - On November 19, the funding situation eased, with major repo rates declining; the bond market weakened overall; the convertible bond market rebounded, with most convertible bond issues rising; yields on U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally increased, and the yields on 10-year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends [1][2] 2. Bond Market News 2.1 Domestic News - The Ministry of Finance issued 4 billion euros of sovereign bonds in Luxembourg on November 18, with a subscription total exceeding 100 billion euros. The 4-year and 7-year bonds were issued at rates of 2.401% and 2.702% respectively, and all bonds will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the Luxembourg Stock Exchange [5] - The Ministry of Finance advanced the budget for part of the central government's urban affordable housing project subsidies for 2026 on November 19 to support related work [6] - The Bond Connect's October 2025 report showed that northbound trading volume reached 572.3 billion yuan, and northbound swap trading reached 410.4 billion yuan [6][7] 2.2 International News - The Fed's meeting minutes on November 19 revealed significant differences among policymakers regarding a December rate cut, with many believing it may not be appropriate [8] 2.3 Commodities - On November 19, WTI December crude oil futures fell $1.30, or 2.14%, to $59.44 per barrel; COMEX gold futures rose 0.36% to $4081.10 per ounce; NYMEX natural gas prices rose 4.44% to $4.564 per ounce [9] 3. Funding Situation 3.1 Open Market Operations - On November 19, the central bank conducted 310.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed rate, resulting in a net injection of 115 billion yuan after 195.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [11] 3.2 Funding Rates - On November 19, as the impact of tax payments diminished, the funding situation eased, and major repo rates declined. DR001 dropped 10.64bp to 1.422%, and DR007 fell 1.08bp to 1.513% [12] 4. Bond Market Dynamics 4.1 Interest Rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yields**: On November 19, the bond market weakened due to the rise of heavyweight sectors in the stock market. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond active issue 250016 rose 0.20bp to 1.8070%, and the yield on the 10-year CDB bond active issue 250215 rose 0.15bp to 1.8695% [15] - **Bond Tenders**: Details of several bond tenders on November 19 were provided, including the 25 Attached Coupon Treasury Bond 20 (Reissued) and others [17] 4.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary Market Transactions**: On November 19, the trading price of one industrial bond, "H0 Zhongjun 02," deviated by more than 10%, dropping by more than 75% [17] - **Credit Bond Events**: Several companies announced events, such as New World Development increasing the issuance cap of new perpetual bonds and Qiandongnan Investment being listed as a dishonest被执行人 [18] 4.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes**: On November 19, the A-share market was divided, and the convertible bond market rebounded. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.24%, 0.21%, and 0.29% respectively [19] - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Several companies announced events related to convertible bonds, such as Baolong Industry suspending trading of four domestic corporate bonds and Guangzhou Metro Group canceling the issuance of "25 Guangzhou Metro SCP011" [20] 4.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On November 19, yields on U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally increased, with the 10-year yield rising 1bp to 4.13% [22] - **European Bond Market**: On November 19, the yields on 10-year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends [25] - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese Dollar Bonds**: As of the close on November 19, price changes of various Chinese dollar bonds were reported [26]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations. Affected by the stock market and uncertainties in global trade and Fed rate - cut expectations, short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase, while China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.64 - trillion - yuan month - on - month increase and a 0.15% month - on - month change rate; M2 year - on - year is 8.20%, down 0.20% month - on - month; Manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, down 0.80% month - on - month [10]. - The US dollar index is 100.13, up 0.54 with a 0.54% month - on - month change rate; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1109, down 0.002 with a - 0.03% month - on - month change rate; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.49, down 0.03 with a - 2.04% month - on - month change rate; DR007 is 1.51, down 0.01 with a - 0.71% month - on - month change rate; R007 is 1.51, down 0.02 with a - 1.24% month - on - month change rate; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with a 0.00 change and a - 0.09% month - on - month change rate; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a 0.00 change and a - 0.09% month - on - month change rate [10]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures on the closing price trend, price change rate, precipitation funds trend, position ratio, net position ratio, long - short position ratio, spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds, and treasury bond issuance of treasury bond futures main contracts [12][16][19][23]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures on Shibor interest rate trend, inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, local bond issuance, inter - period spread trend of treasury bond futures, and spread between spot bond term spread and futures cross - variety [28][30][32]. 4. Spread Overview No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures on the spread between spot bond term spread and futures cross - variety such as (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [37][38][41]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract, TS main contract IRR and funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [40][42][51]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract, TF main contract IRR and funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [53][57]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures on the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract, T main contract IRR and funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [60][61]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures on the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract, TL main contract IRR and funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [67][70][73]. Strategy - Unilateral: With the decline of repurchase interest rates and the fluctuation of treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is neutral [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on November 19, with a fixed rate and a total amount of 310.5 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40% [1] - On the same day, 195.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 115 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market showed a slight easing of funding tensions, with the overnight repo weighted average rate dropping over 10 basis points to around 1.42% [3] - The overnight quotes also fell to 1.42%, while non-bank institutions' pledged credit bonds for overnight funding were quoted at 1.53%-1.55% [3] - Market liquidity is expected to return to a balanced and slightly loose state before the end of the month [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit was around 1.64%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [7] Group 4: Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed a decline, with the 30-year main contract down 0.41%, the 10-year down 0.06%, the 5-year down 0.03%, and the 2-year down 0.03% [12] Group 5: Sovereign Bond Issuance - The Ministry of Finance successfully issued 4 billion euros in sovereign bonds in Luxembourg, with a total subscription amount of 100.1 billion euros, 25 times the issuance amount [12] - The 7-year bond had a subscription multiple of 26.5 times, indicating strong market demand [12] Group 6: Economic Indicators - In October, the consumer market maintained stable growth, with total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 41.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year [12] Group 7: International Developments - Japan's 10-year government bond yield reached a 17-year high, driven by expectations of significant fiscal spending [15] - The expected economic stimulus plan in Japan is projected to exceed 20 trillion yen, with a supplementary budget of approximately 17 trillion yen [16]