Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for September is 49.8%, an increase from the previous value of 49.4%[2] - The production index within the PMI rose to 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from 50.8%[4] - The new orders index is at 49.7%, slightly up from 49.5%[10] Group 2: Sector Performance - The midstream equipment manufacturing PMI reached 51.9%, significantly better than the previous 50.5%[4] - The consumer goods PMI improved to 50.6%, compared to 49.2% previously[4] - The construction industry PMI is at 49.3%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from last month but lower than last year's 50.7%[3] Group 3: Price and Inventory Trends - The PMI factory price index fell to 48.2%, down from 49.1%, marking 16 consecutive months below the boom-bust line[11] - The main raw materials purchase price index is at 53.2%, slightly down from 53.3%[11] - The finished goods inventory index increased to 48.2%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month[4] Group 4: Expectations and Future Outlook - The manufacturing activity expectation index rose to 54.1%, up from 53.7%[3] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.6%, indicating continued expansion in production activities[10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, with the addition of the traditional "Golden September" peak season, the PMI slightly rebounded below the boom - bust line, but the recovery was still mild, and structural contradictions remained. The production in September drove the PMI to rise by 0.28pct, followed by the employees, while the demand and material inventory contributed less than 0.1pct. The production - new order gap widened, and the PMI increase was weaker than the average in September since 2022, falling short of the seasonality. The economic recovery foundation needs to be strengthened, and the 50 billion yuan policy - based financial instruments may be the key to "break the situation" [6][12]. - For the bond market, the PMI has been below the boom - bust line for 6 consecutive months. The market has fully anticipated the weak data. In the fourth quarter, new policy - based financial instruments will take effect. Attention should be paid to whether data such as new orders are "better than expected". The downstream construction and project expenditures may speed up in the fourth quarter, which may drive the performance of the mid - stream manufacturing industry. Attention should also be paid to whether the PMI can exceed the seasonal level and return above the boom - bust line [6][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Manufacturing PMI: Moderately Upward, Elasticity Awaits Policy Boost (1) Supply and Demand: The Supply - Demand Gap May Widen Again - New orders increased by 0.2pct month - on - month to 49.7%. The impact of high temperature and heavy rain faded, and exports showed resilience, but the intensity of demand recovery was still insufficient as the increase in September was the lowest since 2022 [2][16]. - Production increased by 1.1pct month - on - month to 51.9%, being the largest contributor to PMI improvement. The production peak season was realized, and the procurement volume and production and operation activity expectation index increased. The "production - new order" gap widened to 2.2pct, the highest since the beginning of the year, and the supply - demand differentiation intensified [2][20]. (2) Foreign Trade: New Export Orders Rebound Faster - New export orders increased by 0.6pct month - on - month to 47.8%, and imports increased by 0.1pct to 48.1%. In September, due to the Christmas product export peak season and the demand from non - US economies, exports were stable, and port freight volume remained high. The increase in new export orders in September exceeded that in August and was better than the overall new orders, showing export resilience [24]. - Imports continued the slight upward trend and were at a high level in the same period, indicating that enterprises' demand for import stocking was strong [25]. (3) Price: The Pressure of Price Decline Reappears - In September, the purchase price of raw materials and the ex - factory price decreased by 0.1pct and 0.9pct month - on - month to 53.2% and 48.2% respectively. The supply and demand of the basic raw material industry declined, dragging down the price index, while the prices of industries such as equipment manufacturing improved, showing a large industry differentiation [3][29]. (4) Inventory: Slow Destocking, Active Production, and a Sharp Increase in Product Inventory - In September, the raw material inventory index increased by 0.5pct to 48.5% due to the increase in procurement volume. However, the downstream demand destocking was slow, and the production expanded actively, resulting in a 1.4pct increase in finished product inventory to the highest level in the same period, showing the characteristic of "passive inventory accumulation" [3][31]. II. Non - Manufacturing PMI: The Construction Industry Continues to Be in Low - level Prosperity, Awaiting Policy Effect - In September, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3pct. The service industry PMI decreased by 0.4pct to 50.1%, and the construction industry PMI increased by 0.2pct to 49.3%, remaining below the boom - bust line [36]. - The construction industry expansion was still weak. The business activity indexes of housing construction and civil engineering construction were below 50%. The lack of new orders was the main factor restricting construction. The 50 billion yuan policy - based financial instruments may accelerate the investment rhythm in the fourth quarter and help the construction industry PMI recover [4][36]. - The service industry's prosperity declined in the off - season. After the summer vacation, tourism consumption entered the off - season. The approaching National Day holiday is expected to drive the improvement of travel service consumption [4][36].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views Manufacturing PMI - Supply: Manufacturing production picked up. In September, the production index was 51.9, up 1.1 from the previous month, and the supplier delivery time index was 50.8, up 0.3 from the previous month [3]. - Demand: Manufacturing demand rebounded. In September, the new order index was 49.7, up 0.2 from the previous month; the new export order index was 47.8, up 0.6 from the previous month; and the back - order index was 45.2, down 0.3 from the previous month [3]. - Supply - demand balance: The supply - demand relationship needs improvement. In September, the supply - demand index (demand - supply) was - 2.2, down 0.9 from the previous month, down 0.9 from the same period last year, and down 0.5 from the average of the past three years [3]. - Price: Manufacturing profitability contracted. In September, the raw material price index was 53.2, down 0.1 from the previous month; the ex - factory price index was 48.2, down 0.9 from the previous month. The difference between ex - factory price and raw material price was - 5.0, down 0.8 from the previous month [3]. - Inventory: De - stocking slowed down. In September, the finished goods inventory index was 48.2, up 1.4 from the previous month; the raw material inventory index was 48.5, up 0.5 from the previous month. The difference between new orders and finished goods inventory was 1.5, down 1.2 from the previous month [3]. Non - manufacturing PMI - Supply: Non - manufacturing employment slowed down. In September, the employment index was 45, down 0.6 from the previous month; among them, the construction industry was 39.7, down 3.9 from the previous month, and the service industry was 45.9, unchanged from the previous month. The supplier delivery time index was 51.1, down 0.2 from the previous month [4]. - Demand: Non - manufacturing domestic demand declined. In September, the new order index was 46, down 0.6 from the previous month; among them, the construction industry was 42.2, up 1.6 from the previous month, and the service industry was 46.7, down 1.0 from the previous month. The new export order index was 49.8, up 1.0 from the previous month, and the back - order index was 44.4, up 1.0 from the previous month [4]. - Price: Non - manufacturing industries exchanged price for volume. In September, the input price index was 49, down 1.3 from the previous month; among them, the construction industry was 47.2, down 7.4 from the previous month, and the service industry was 49.3, down 0.2 from the previous month. The sales price index was 47.3, down 1.3 from the previous month; among them, the construction industry was 48.1, down 1.6 from the previous month, and the service industry was 47.2, down 1.3 from the previous month [4]. - Inventory: De - stocking continued. In September, the inventory index was 44.9, down 0.8 from the previous month and down 0.2 from the same period last year [5] Summary by Directory Overview - Manufacturing PMI: Manufacturing sentiment improved, and enterprise production expansion accelerated. In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [11]. - Non - manufacturing PMI: The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.6, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [11]. Demand: Manufacturing Demand Improved, Non - manufacturing Demand Weakened - Manufacturing: Driven by the continuous release of policies such as the "Two New" policies, in September, the new order index was 49.7, up 0.2 from the previous month; the new export order index was 47.8, up 0.6 from the previous month; and the back - order index was 45.2, down 0.3 from the previous month [19]. - Non - manufacturing: In September, the new order index was 46, down 0.6 from the previous month, indicating a continued contraction in non - manufacturing order demand. The new export order index was 49.8, up 1.0 from the previous month, indicating a recovery in export demand. The back - order index was 44.4, up 1.0 from the previous month, indicating an accumulation of existing orders [19]. Supply: Manufacturing Production Recovered, Non - manufacturing Sentiment Declined - Manufacturing: In September, the production index was 51.9, up 1.1 from the previous month; the production and business activity expectation index was 54.1, up 0.4 from the previous month; the supplier delivery time index was 50.8, up 0.3 from the previous month; and the employment index was 48.5, up 0.6 from the previous month [23]. - Non - manufacturing: In September, the employment index was 45, down 0.6 from the previous month; the supplier delivery time index was 51.1, down 0.2 from the previous month; and the business activity expectation index was 55.7, down 0.5 from the previous month [23]. Price: Manufacturing Profitability Contracted, Non - manufacturing Price Cuts Continued - Manufacturing: In September, the raw material price index was 53.2, down 0.1 from the previous month; the ex - factory price index was 48.2, down 0.9 from the previous month; and the difference between ex - factory price and raw material price was - 5.0, down 0.8 from the previous month [31]. - Non - manufacturing: In September, the input price index was 49, down 1.3 from the previous month; the sales price index was 47.3, down 1.3 from the previous month [31]. Inventory: Manufacturing De - stocking Slowed Down, Non - manufacturing De - stocking Continued - Manufacturing: In September, the finished goods inventory index was 48.2, up 1.4 from the previous month; the raw material inventory index was 48.5, up 0.5 from the previous month; and the difference between new orders and finished goods inventory was 1.5, down 1.2 from the previous month [39]. - Non - manufacturing: In September, the inventory index was 44.9, down 0.8 from the previous month and down 0.2 from the same period last year [39]. - Comprehensive: In September, the composite PMI index was 50.6, up 0.1 from the previous month and up 0.2 from the same period last year, indicating an improvement in overall economic sentiment [39]

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 09 30 年 月 日 宏观点评 9 月 PMI 季节性回升的背后 事件：2025 年 9 月制造业 PMI 为 49.8%（前值 49.4%）；非制造业 PMI 为 50.0%（前值 50.3%）。 核心观点：9 月制造业 PMI 季节性回升，多数分项也小幅反弹，但仍在收缩 区间，应是与 9 月出口韧性仍强，阅兵结束前期检修的企业复产、"反内卷" 的影响减轻等；服务业 有关 PMI 逆季节性回落，可能指向 9 月消费压力仍 分析师 杨涛 大。继续提示：当前经济回落有加速迹象，政策"适时加力"的必要性和可 能性提升，国内紧盯：消费、地产等基本面走势；"国庆、10 月四中"两个 关键窗口；央行近期可能的重启购买国债、Q4 大概率降息；财政 Q4 大概 率提前下发明年专项债和化债额度。海外紧盯：中美经贸谈判进展，尤其是 10 月底韩国 APEC 峰会。 1、9 月制造业 PMI 回升、仍处于收缩区间，非制造业 PMI 回落。9 月制 造业 PMI 为 49.8%，较前值回升 0.4 个百分点，符合季节性（2015-2024 年 9 月 PMI 环比变 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 9 月 30 日， 统计局发布 9 月 PMI。制造业 PMI 49.8%，预期 49.7%，前值 49.4%。非制造业 PMI 50.0%，前值 50.3%。关注以下几个方面： 第一，制造业反弹仍然是生产分项拉动。9 月制造业生产环比回升 1.1 个百分点至 51.9%，新订单上升 0.2 个百分点至 49.7%。对比往年同期，2016-2024 年间（剔除 2020/2022）生产和新订单的平均变动幅度分别为 +0.24、+0.41 个百分点。9 月作为秋季旺季，多会呈现出季节性规律之外的供需两旺。而今年 9 月生产相对更 强，新订单偏弱。两者分别拉动制造业 PMI 约 0.28、0.06 个百分点，是制造业 PMI反弹的主要拉动因素。 第二，价格连涨两个月之后回撤。制造业价格回落，出厂价回调 0.9 个百分点至 48.2%（7-8 月合计涨 2.9%），仍然处于收缩区间。这指向 9 月 PPI 环比可能仍为负。而原材料购进价格指数回调幅较小，仅调 0.1 个 百分点至 53.2%（7-8 月合计涨 4.9%），仍然处于扩张区间。非制造业价格方面，建筑业和服务业价格分别下滑 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In September, the manufacturing industry showed significant improvement in its prosperity, with the production index reaching a six - month high. However, enterprises' profitability continued to face pressure, and the problem of oversupply remained prominent. The high - tech manufacturing and strategic emerging industries performed well, and enterprises' confidence in the market was relatively high. - The non - manufacturing industry presented a situation where the construction industry showed resilience while the service industry was under pressure [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing Industry - **Overall PMI**: In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8, a 0.4 increase from the previous month. The production index rose 1.1 to 51.9, and the new order index increased 0.2 to 49.7. The new export order index went up 0.6 to 47.8. The import index, raw material inventory, and procurement volume all increased, indicating a significant boost in enterprises' production and operation enthusiasm [1][2]. - **Industry Differences**: Industries such as food, beverages, automobiles, and railway, ship, aerospace equipment had production and new order indices above 54.0, with rapid release of production and demand. In contrast, industries like wood processing, furniture, and petroleum and coal processing had production and demand indices below the critical point [2]. - **Enterprise Types**: Large enterprises expanded steadily, and small enterprises' business conditions improved. In September, the PMI of large, medium, and small enterprises changed by 0.2, - 0.1, and 1.6 respectively, reaching 51, 48.8, and 48.2 [2]. - **Key Industries**: The PMI of high - tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, consumer goods industry, and raw material industry changed by - 0.3, 1.4, 1.4, and - 0.7 respectively, reaching 51.6, 51.9, 50.6, and 47.5. The EPMI of strategic emerging industries in September was 52.4, a significant increase of 4.6 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - **Enterprise Expectations**: The production and operation activity expectation index increased by 0.4 to 54.1, rising for three consecutive months, indicating high confidence of manufacturing enterprises in the near - term market. The employment index rose 0.6 to 48.5 [3]. Non - Manufacturing Industry - **Construction Industry**: In September, the construction industry's business activity index was 49.3, a 0.2 increase from the previous month, remaining below the boom - bust line for two consecutive months [5]. - **Service Industry**: The service industry's business activity index was 50.1, a 0.4 decrease. Industries such as postal services, telecommunications, and monetary and financial services were in a high - level prosperity range with business activity indices above 60.0%, and their business volumes grew rapidly [5]. Investment Suggestions - The September PMI data indicated that the manufacturing industry's prosperity improved significantly, and the increase in mid - and upstream prices had an impact on the production side. The economic structure upgrade was a highlight, with high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing leading the way. The production and operation expectations, production investment enthusiasm, and employment in the manufacturing industry showed positive trends. However, the pressure was still concentrated on the demand side, with the new order index remaining in the contraction range, and consumption, real estate, and infrastructure remaining weak [6].

股指期货日报 重要资讯 1、 9月份制造业采购经理指数（制造业PMI）为49.8%，较8月上升0.4个百分点，实现连续两个月回升；非 制造业商务活动指数为50%，处于临界点，整体运行平稳；综合PMI产出指数保持扩张。 2、距离美国联邦政府关门还剩1天，国会两党就拨款问题举行的关键谈判失败。据路透社报道，美国联邦政 府的现有资金将于当地时间9月30日午夜正式耗尽，为避免政府关门，当地时间9月29日，美国总统特朗普与 国会两党领袖在白宫进行会谈，讨论临时拨款法案以化解危机。 3、美国总统特朗普宣布将对进口软木原木及木材征收10%关税，并对进口橱柜、浴室柜及软包木制品加征 25%关税。新关税将于10月14日起生效，部分税率将在明年1月1日起进一步上调。 2025年9月30日 王映(投资咨询证号：Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 关注节后外围变量情况 市场回顾 今日股指走势延续强势，以沪深300指数为例，收盘上涨0.45%。从资金面来看，两市成交额上涨199.49亿 元。期指方面，各品种均缩量上涨。 核心观点 本周两个交易日股市走势整体偏强，内部政策提振为主因，今日公布的PMI数据 ...

Group 1: PMI Overview - In September, the manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from 49.4% in August[1][7] - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 50.0%, down from 50.3% in the previous month[1][7] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The production index rose to 51.9%, marking a 1.1 percentage point increase, the highest in nearly six months[2][8] - The new orders index increased by only 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, indicating weaker demand recovery compared to production[2][8] - New export orders improved by 0.6 percentage points to 47.8%, outpacing the increase in domestic orders[2][3] Group 3: Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI rose by 1.1 percentage points to 51.6%, while high-tech manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 51.9%[3][16] - High-energy consumption industries saw a decline in PMI by 0.7 percentage points to 47.5%, reflecting ongoing weakness in real estate and infrastructure[3][16] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sector Trends - The construction PMI slightly improved by 0.2 percentage points to 49.3%, while the service sector PMI fell by 0.4 percentage points to 50.1%[4][20] - The service sector's new orders index dropped significantly by 1.0 percentage point to 46.7%, indicating reduced consumer activity[4][34]

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for September 2025 is 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with seasonal recovery trends[2][5] - The production index rose to 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from last month, indicating accelerated production activities as extreme weather impacts dissipate[5][14] - The new orders index increased slightly to 49.7%, suggesting persistent demand insufficiency, with a widening production-demand gap of 2.2 percentage points[5][14] Industry Performance - Equipment manufacturing PMI rose significantly to 51.9%, up 1.4 percentage points, while high-tech manufacturing PMI remains stable at 51.6%[5][15] - Consumer goods manufacturing PMI reached its highest level of the year at 50.6%, driven by seasonal factors like the upcoming holiday[5][15] - Traditional high-energy-consuming industries saw a decline in PMI to 47.5%, influenced by weak demand from real estate and infrastructure investments[5][15] Economic Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to show a positive trend in manufacturing PMI due to the end of extreme weather and the onset of the traditional production peak season[5] - Recent economic stimulus measures, including policy adjustments and new financial tools, are anticipated to support economic growth in the fourth quarter[5] Service Sector - The service sector business activity index for September is 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a cooling in service consumption post-summer[31] - Financial services continue to show strength, with the business activity index rising above 60%, indicating robust support for the real economy[31] Construction Sector - The construction sector's business activity index increased slightly to 49.3%, ending a two-month decline but remaining at historically low levels due to reduced demand from real estate and infrastructure[35] - Anticipated government projects and new financial tools are expected to bolster construction activity in the upcoming quarter[35]

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In September, the manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from 49.4% in August[1][7] - The production index rose to 51.9%, marking a 1.1 percentage point increase, the highest in nearly six months[2][8] - New orders index increased by only 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, indicating weaker recovery compared to production[2][8] Demand Structure - New export orders index rose by 0.6 percentage points to 47.8%, showing stronger external demand compared to domestic orders[2][3] - The overall demand structure continues to reflect that external demand is outperforming internal demand[2][3] Sector Performance - Equipment manufacturing PMI increased by 1.1 percentage points to 51.6%, while high-tech manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 51.9%[3][17] - High-energy consumption industries saw a decline in PMI by 0.7 percentage points to 47.5%, indicating ongoing weakness in real estate and infrastructure sectors[3][17] Non-Manufacturing PMI Trends - Non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points, with service sector PMI dropping significantly by 0.4 percentage points to 50.1%[5][33] - Construction PMI showed slight recovery, increasing by 0.2 percentage points to 49.3%, but still remains at historical lows[5][21] Future Outlook - Despite downward pressure on traditional sectors, new economic drivers are showing significant support for growth, necessitating close monitoring of new growth policies[4][25] - The implementation of new stability policies in key industries is expected to mitigate risks associated with infrastructure and real estate downturns[4][25]