Core Viewpoint - The U.S. job market shows signs of recovery with an increase in employment, but overall growth remains limited and inflationary pressures persist, impacting consumer demand and profitability [3][4][5]. Economic Indicators - The ADP employment report for October indicates an increase of 42,000 jobs, surpassing market expectations of 28,000, following a revised loss of 29,000 jobs in September [3]. - The U.S. services sector PMI rose from 50.0 in September to 52.4 in October, suggesting a robust economic performance entering Q4, driven by strong growth in the services sector [5]. - The overall business activity growth is estimated at an annualized rate of approximately 2.5%, consistent with the solid expansion trend observed in Q3 [4]. Sector Performance - Growth in employment was primarily seen in education, healthcare, trade, transportation, and utilities, while sectors like professional business services and leisure continue to experience layoffs [3][5]. - Despite the increase in new orders, the services employment index remains below the neutral level, indicating ongoing weakness in the labor market [5]. Inflation and Cost Pressures - Service providers are facing high input costs, which they struggle to pass on to consumers, leading to potential profit margin pressures [4][5]. - The ADP report suggests that wage growth has stabilized, reflecting a balance in supply and demand dynamics in the labor market [3]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates remains cautious, with a 62.5% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December, influenced by ongoing economic uncertainties and employment trends [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive performance of the US non-manufacturing PMI in October, which stood at 52.4, exceeding expectations and previous values, leading to a collective rise in major US stock indices [1] - The US stock market saw the Nasdaq increase by 0.65%, the Dow Jones by 0.48%, and the S&P 500 by 0.37%, indicating a favorable market response to the PMI data [1] - Domestic futures markets showed mixed results, with certain commodities like coking coal and various agricultural products experiencing gains, while others like propylene and asphalt saw declines [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the performance of major stock indices, noting a recovery after a previous decline, with the electric equipment sector leading gains and the computer sector lagging [2] - The financing balance decreased by 3.32 billion yuan to 24.73687 trillion yuan, indicating a potential shift in market liquidity [2] - The article emphasizes the long-term focus on technology self-reliance as part of the 14th Five-Year Plan, suggesting that the technology sector will be a key investment direction [2] Group 3 - The article reports on the shipping market, specifically the European container shipping index, which rose by 3.82% to surpass 1900 points, reflecting positive macroeconomic sentiment [3] - The average price for large containers in early November stabilized around 2200 USD, with expectations for price adjustments based on seasonal demand [3] - The article notes that the glass and soda ash markets are in a phase of inventory digestion, with cautious market sentiment prevailing [3][19] Group 4 - The article highlights the significant growth in China's new energy storage capacity, which has exceeded 100 million kilowatts, representing a more than 30-fold increase compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [8] - The article mentions that this capacity now accounts for over 40% of the global total, positioning China as a leader in this sector [8]

services PMIs as well with Rick Santel. Hey Rick. >> Hi Carl.Indeed. Rates are moving up, but maybe it's outside of the data I'm about to release. Our October final read on service sector and composite from S&P Global comes in less than expectations and less than the midmon read.54.8% replaces 55.2%. And if you look at the composite, 54.6% replaces 54.8%. But here's the rub.Even though they're less than expected and less than the midmon read, they're still sequentially higher than last month, which is the c ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for treasury bond futures is likely to be volatile with a slight bullish bias [1][2] Core View of the Report - The fundamentals reflected by PMI are favorable for the bond market, and the 1.85% yield of 10 - year treasury bond cash bonds may be the upper limit for some time. Treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile with a slight bullish bias in the short term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2] Summary by Related Contents Market Performance - On Tuesday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened slightly lower, with minor declines in the morning session and recoveries in the afternoon, showing narrow - range horizontal fluctuations throughout the day. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.03%, the 10 - year T2512 remained flat, and the 5 - year TF2512 and 2 - year TS2512 both fell 0.01% [1] - On Tuesday, the Wande All - A Index opened slightly lower, fluctuated downward continuously, and slightly rebounded at the end of the session, closing with a negative line. The trading volume was 1.94 trillion yuan, a slight decline from the previous trading day's 2.13 trillion yuan [2] Important Information - On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 117.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 475.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 357.8 billion yuan [1] - On Tuesday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% throughout the day, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.43%, up from 1.42% in the previous trading day [1] - On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bond cash bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds rose by 0.90, 0.27, 0.40, and 0.45 basis points to 1.42%, 1.58%, 1.80%, and 2.14% respectively [1] - PBoC Deputy Governor Lu Lei stated on November 4 that the central bank will adjust the intensity and rhythm of policy support according to the economic and financial situation at home and abroad, implement various monetary policy tools, and release policy effects. This year, the central bank has implemented a moderately loose monetary policy [1] - The central bank's 10 - month liquidity injection data shows that the net injection of treasury bond trading in the open market was 20 billion yuan, indicating the resumption of treasury bond trading operations. The central bank also announced a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month term repurchase operation on November 5 [1] Market Logic - The PMI in October was 49.0%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the seventh consecutive month, with a larger decline than seasonal factors due to the double - holiday and external factors. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, the construction business activity index was 49.1%, and the service business activity index was 50.2%, showing a mild expansion. The fundamentals reflected by PMI are favorable for the bond market [2] - On October 27, the central bank governor stated that the bond market is operating well, and the resumption of open - market treasury bond trading operations directly boosted the bond market last week. The 1.85% yield of 10 - year treasury bond cash bonds may be the upper limit for some time [2] - With the overnight decline in US stocks and the narrow - range horizontal fluctuation of treasury bond futures on Tuesday, treasury bond futures may be volatile with a slight bullish bias in the short term [2] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors should conduct band operations [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Manufacturing and Services Sector - **Date**: October 31, 2025 Core Insights - **Manufacturing PMI Performance**: The manufacturing PMI experienced a notable decline in October, primarily attributed to the timing shift of the Mid-Autumn Festival, which caused front-loaded production in September. The combined manufacturing PMI for September and October stands at 49.4, consistent with August's reading [2][4][7] - **Non-Manufacturing PMIs**: Both construction and service PMIs underperformed, indicating ongoing challenges in housing and consumer activities. However, there was a positive development in infrastructure, with the civil engineering PMI increasing by 5 percentage points month-over-month [3][7] - **Fiscal Stimulus Impact**: A fiscal and quasi-fiscal stimulus of RMB 1 trillion is expected to alleviate local government funding pressures and support investment, contributing to a projected GDP growth of 4.7% year-over-year in Q4 2025 [4][7] Additional Important Details - **Price Indices**: The Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to have decreased by 0.1% month-over-month, while year-over-year it may rise to -2.2% due to a favorable base effect [7] - **Trade Relations**: The US-China trade truce, which includes a 10% reduction in fentanyl tariffs and the suspension of US technology barriers, is expected to reduce near-term trade uncertainties and positively influence capital expenditures [4][7] - **PMI Breakdown**: The manufacturing PMI breakdown shows a decline in new orders and production, with new orders at 48.8 and production at 49.7 in October [6] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the manufacturing and services sector in China, the impact of fiscal policies, and the implications of trade relations on economic growth.

Economic Indicators - The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.5%, indicating expansion, slightly better than the expected 52.2% and the previous month's 52.2% [2] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI, however, fell to 48.7%, below the expected 49.4%, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector [4] - New orders in manufacturing are also in contraction territory at 49.4%, while employment figures improved slightly to 46, still indicating contraction [4][5] US-China Trade Relations - The White House has decided to hold off on additional tariffs as China resumes some semiconductor exports and increases purchases of US agricultural products, including wheat and soybeans [7][8][9] - This easing of trade tensions has led to a positive market reaction, particularly in the agricultural sector [8][10] Market Reactions - Rare earth and mineral companies are experiencing declines, with MP Materials down approximately 5.3%, as investor enthusiasm wanes amid easing supply concerns [12][14][16] - The broader S&P 500 index is facing selling pressure, with only about 19% of stocks in the green, indicating a challenging market environment [15] Oil Market Dynamics - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day, aligning with market expectations, but will pause production increases between January and March due to concerns over inventory levels [19][21] - Current oil prices are under pressure, with significant inventory levels noted, and a bearish outlook persists unless prices can stabilize above $65 [22][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Alumina's fundamentals may enter a stage of slightly reduced supply and relatively stable demand, with a suggestion of light - position short - long trading at low prices [2] - The fundamentals of Shanghai Aluminum might be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and boosted demand, and it's recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading [2] - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy could be in a situation of slowed supply and increasing demand, and light - position oscillating trading is advised [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai Aluminum contract is 21,600 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the closing price of the main alumina futures contract is 2,789 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] - The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 2,888 dollars/ton, up 18 dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 558,050 tons, up 98,525 tons [2] - The closing price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract is 21,065 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the registered warehouse receipts of cast aluminum alloy on the SHFE are 51,117 tons, up 273 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 21,440 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,790 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2] - The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 21,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 21,300 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina output in October is 799.90 million tons, up 7.42%; the national alumina start - up rate is 85.98%, up 3.05% [2] - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) in October is 704.31 million tons, down 21.49%; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 46.85 million tons, up 18.12% [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum in October is 246,797.10 tons, up 31,034.96 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum is 28,969.92 tons, up 3,365.58 tons [2] - The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity in October is 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the electrolytic aluminum start - up rate is 98.27%, up 0.16% [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of aluminum products in October is 590 million tons, up 35.18 tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 52 million tons, down 1 million tons [2] - The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in October is 65.65 million tons, up 2.06 tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.35 million tons, down 0.56 tons [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 10.65%, up 0.95%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 8.84%, up 0.65% [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money IV of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 12.75%, up 0.0049; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.42, up 0.1219 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, aims to guide financial institutions to improve the transmission efficiency of monetary policy, especially interest rate policy, and study and reserve policy tools [2] - In October, China's manufacturing PMI is 49%, down 0.8 percentage points; the non - manufacturing PMI is 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage point; the composite PMI output index is 50%, down 0.6 percentage points [2] - Multiple Fed officials oppose interest rate cuts, expressing concerns about economic growth, inflation, and policy restrictions [2] - The CPC Central Committee proposes to expand two - way investment cooperation space, and the Ministry of Commerce will introduce more detailed measures [2]

- The report tracks industry prosperity signals for sectors such as coal, livestock farming, steel, structural materials, and fuel refining based on recent industry operating indicators[9] - **Coal Industry Model**: The model estimates monthly revenue and profit growth rates for the coal industry based on changes in price factors and production capacity factors. The pricing mechanism is determined by the last price index of the previous month, which sets the sales price for the following month[10][14] - **Livestock Farming Factor**: The "outbound coefficient method" is used to calculate the supply-demand gap for pigs six months in advance. The formula is: $ \text{Outbound Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Single Quarter Pig Outbound}}{\text{Breeding Sow Inventory lag6m}} $ $ \text{6-month Potential Production Capacity} = \text{t-month Breeding Sow Inventory} \times (\text{t+6-month Last Year Outbound Coefficient}) $ $ \text{6-month Potential Pig Demand} = \text{t+6-month Last Year Single Quarter Pig Outbound} $ This method effectively identifies pig price upward cycles[15][16] - **Steel Industry Model**: Monthly profit growth and per-ton profit are predicted using a model that incorporates comprehensive steel prices and cost indicators such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel[18] - **Structural Materials and Construction Engineering Model**: Profit changes in the glass and cement manufacturing industries are tracked using price and cost indicators. Configuration signals are designed based on profitability changes. Manufacturing prosperity and real estate sales data are analyzed to assess the likelihood of infrastructure investment expectations[25] - **Fuel Refining and Oil Services Model**: Industry profit growth and cracking spreads are calculated using changes in fuel oil prices and crude oil prices. Configuration signals are designed based on oil prices, cracking spreads, and new drilling changes[27] Backtesting Results - **Coal Industry**: Profit growth is predicted to continue declining in November 2025 due to coal prices being lower than the previous year[14] - **Livestock Farming Factor**: The breeding sow inventory at the end of September 2025 was 40.35 million heads, slightly down month-on-month. The potential pig supply for Q1 2026 is estimated at 19.347 million heads, with demand forecasted at 19.476 million heads, indicating a slightly tight supply-demand balance[17] - **Steel Industry**: Profit growth for October 2025 is predicted to be negative. The rolling 12-month PMI average decreased month-on-month, maintaining a neutral configuration view for the steel industry[23] - **Structural Materials and Construction Engineering**: Flat glass profitability continued to grow year-on-year in October 2025, maintaining a positive signal for the glass industry. Cement industry profits turned negative year-on-year in October 2025, with no positive signals from new housing starts, maintaining a neutral view. Manufacturing PMI and real estate sales data suggest potential infrastructure investment expectations, leading to a positive signal for the construction decoration industry[26] - **Fuel Refining and Oil Services**: Fuel refining industry profits are predicted to grow slightly year-on-year in October 2025. Oil prices were lower than the previous year, maintaining a neutral view for the fuel refining and oil services industries[34][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 49.0%, showing a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level, while the non - manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and the comprehensive PMI was at the critical point, indicating that the overall production and business activities of enterprises were stable. With the easing of international situations and policy support, the overall prosperity of the manufacturing industry is expected to gradually stabilize and recover [3][5][7]. - In the bond market, bond yields are expected to rise trendily due to the revision of economic expectations [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 49.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8pct; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1pct; the comprehensive PMI was 50.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6pct [3]. 3.2 Reasons for the Decline in Manufacturing PMI - Seasonal factors: The pre - holiday demand was released in advance, and the number of working days decreased. The production index and new order index declined, leading to a seasonal decline in the manufacturing PMI [5]. - International environment: Due to the unclear results of China - US trade negotiations, the new export order index of the manufacturing industry dropped to 45.9%, the second - lowest point of the year, and the production and operation activity expectation index also declined [5]. 3.3 Structural Highlights in the Data - Key industries remained resilient: The PMIs of high - tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries were above 50%, higher than the overall manufacturing level and still in the expansion range [6]. - Non - manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range: The service industry PMI increased by 0.1pct to 50.2% due to the holiday effect and promotional activities, and the business activity expectation index remained in a high - prosperity range. The construction industry's business activity expectation index increased by 3.6pct, indicating improved confidence [6]. 3.4 Bond Market Viewpoint - Due to the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trendily [8]. 3.5 Related Research Report References - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly; structural problems such as prices are expected to improve trendily; the bond - stock allocation will continue to switch, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [9].

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) is trading in a range below 0.6550, currently at 0.6545, with a slight increase of 0.02% as investors await the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate decision [1] - Australian economic data shows positive signals, with September building approvals rising significantly by 12.0%, surpassing the market expectation of 5.0%, and household spending increasing by 0.2% month-on-month and 5.1% year-on-year [1] - The TD-MI inflation indicator rose by 0.3% month-on-month in October, slightly down from 0.4% in September, while the year-on-year inflation rate increased from 3.0% to 3.1% [1] Group 2 - China's manufacturing PMI decreased from 51.2 in September to 50.6 in October, below the market expectation of 50.9, indicating potential impacts on the AUD due to the close trade relationship between China and Australia [2] - The market widely expects the RBA to maintain interest rates unchanged after three previous cuts, as overall inflation remains within the target range of 2%-3% [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD exchange rate has maintained an upward trend since October 17, but requires new catalysts for a significant breakthrough [3] - Current trading range for AUD/USD is between 0.6538 and 0.6491, with support levels at 0.6440 and 0.6415, and resistance levels at 0.6630 and 0.6707 [3]