Macroeconomic Overview - December PMI showed a seasonal rebound, indicating expectations for policy support in the coming year, particularly in the construction sector[2] - December CPI and PPI were 0.8% and -1.9% year-on-year, respectively, both exceeding expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%[2] - The first batch of special government bonds for 2026, amounting to 62.5 billion yuan, was issued earlier than in 2025, supporting consumer policies[2] Financial Market Performance - From December 29, 2025, to January 9, 2026, the equity market saw a significant increase, with daily trading volume averaging 25,806 billion yuan, up 6,154 billion yuan from the previous period[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.95%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 3.79%[2] Fixed Income Market - Bond yields rose overall during the same period, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 5.1 basis points[2] - The central bank's net MLF injection of 100 billion yuan contributed to a stable and loose funding environment[2] International Market Dynamics - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December, below the expected 60,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%[2] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 1.12%, and oil prices increased due to geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include weaker-than-expected fundamentals, slower-than-anticipated reserve requirement ratio cuts, and renewed inflation pressures in the U.S.[2]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Rise and Fall, Consolidating for Momentum - Guoxin Futures Non-ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated January 11, 2026 [2][3] Group 2: Table of Contents - The report includes sections on market review, fundamental analysis, and outlook for the future [4] Group 3: Market Review - This section presents the price trend of the nickel futures main contract [7] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis - Upstream: It shows the port inventory of nickel ore in China [12] - Midstream: It includes the prices of electrolytic nickel, nickel sulfate, and 8 - 12% nickel - iron, as well as the monthly import volume of nickel - iron [15][18][20] - Downstream: It covers the price, position, and inventory of stainless steel, as well as the production of power and energy - storage batteries and new energy vehicles [22][30][32] Group 5: Outlook for the Future - In the US, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time in December 2025, with the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%. The GDP growth rate in Q3 2025 was 4.3%. There are differences in views on future interest - rate cuts, and the market is concerned about the new Fed chair. The probabilities of different interest - rate scenarios are provided. In China, the manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 50.1%, and the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026 [38] - The Shanghai nickel futures showed a rise - and - fall trend this week. Nickel inventory is at a high level. The 2026 RKAB quota in Indonesia may be 2.5 billion tons, lower than in 2025. Indonesian nickel - iron production in December remained high, with large supply pressure. Stainless - steel demand enters the off - season, but production has increased due to price hikes. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 130,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,800 - 14,200 yuan/ton [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoint - The coking coal and coke market currently has an oversupply situation. With the continuous low level of hot metal, there is limited room for price increases. It is more likely to operate stably with fluctuations before the Spring Festival [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: In December, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, and non - manufacturing PMI to 50.2%. The recovery was driven by policies, external demand, and seasonal factors. In the "15th Five - Year Plan" start - up year, with economic growth pressure, proactive fiscal policies are expected to be implemented early, and corporate profit recovery will be an important market driver [8] - **International Market**: Overseas economies show a pattern of total expansion and falling interest rates. Major economies have looser monetary policies. The Fed cut the federal funds rate in December. The US, EU, and Japan have increasing fiscal deficits. Although the US economy grew rapidly in Q3 2025, core inflation is falling, providing room for loose policies, but future interest rate paths are uncertain [8] Coal Supply - In 2025, from January to November, China's total raw coal production was 4.402 billion tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.84%. As of January 5, 2026, the daily output of raw coal and clean coal of 523 sample mines decreased month - on - month. In December, coking coal production declined slightly. In January, coal production will be restricted by various factors, and Mongolian coal imports may fall [10] Coking Coal Import - From January to November 2025, China's total coking coal imports were 104.8917 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.66%. Imports from Mongolia, Australia, Russia, and Canada all showed different trends. Weak demand and a cautious market sentiment restricted port coking coal prices [17] Coking Coal Inventory - As of January 5, 2026, the inventories of 523 clean coal sample mines, port coking coal, and independent coking enterprises increased slightly month - on - month, while the inventory of 247 integrated steel enterprises decreased slightly. In December, the coking coal inventory problem was significant, with upstream accumulation and slow downstream winter storage [26] Coke Supply - From January to November 2025, China's total coke production was 461 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. As of January 5, 2026, the daily output of 230 independent coking enterprises decreased slightly, and that of 247 integrated steel plants increased slightly, but the capacity utilization rate decreased for both. In January, coke supply is expected to shrink further [34] Coke Import and Export - From January to November 2025, China's total coke and semi - coke exports were 693,650 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.62%. Exports have been at a low level, restricted by coking coal cost fluctuations. In November, exports to Europe increased due to European steelmakers' procurement adjustments [44] Coke Inventory - As of January 5, 2026, the total coke inventory increased slightly month - on - month. The inventories of independent coking enterprises, 247 steel enterprises, and ports all rose. The overall coke inventory is accumulating, and the supply surplus pressure is increasing [47] Iron Element Demand - On January 5, 2026, the profit per ton of blast furnace steel increased, but the daily hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises and the consumption of the five major steel products decreased, and the inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly. In December, coke demand weakened, and in January, demand may be affected by factors such as the late Spring Festival, environmental protection, and maintenance [55] Iron Element Terminal Demand - From January to November 2025, fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year. Infrastructure investment decreased by 1.1%, manufacturing investment increased by 1.9%, and real estate development investment decreased by 15.9%. Steel exports increased by 6.66% year - on - year, showing economic structural differentiation [63]

Market Performance - U.S. stocks showed mixed trading, with the Nasdaq Composite gaining over 150 points, while the Dow decreased by 0.17% to 49,380.41 and the S&P 500 rose by 0.27% to 6,963.78 [1] - Health care shares increased by 1.1%, while materials stocks fell by 1.5% [1] Economic Indicators - The ISM services PMI rose for the third consecutive month to 54.4 in December, up from 52.6 in the previous month, exceeding market expectations of 52.3 [2][10] - U.S. job openings decreased by 303,000 to 7.146 million in November, marking the lowest level since December 2020 and falling short of market estimates of 7.60 million [10] - U.S. crude inventories dropped by 3.831 million barrels to 419.1 million barrels, contrasting with market expectations of a 1.1 million barrel increase [10] Commodity Market - Oil prices fell by 2% to $56.01, gold decreased by 0.6% to $4,469.30, silver dropped by 5.1% to $76.89, and copper fell by 3.1% to $5.8740 [5] Company News - Innovative Eyewear Inc shares surged by 47% to $1.74 after reporting preliminary fourth-quarter sales of approximately $1 million, a 45% year-over-year increase [9] - Ventyx Biosciences Inc shares rose by 37% to $13.74 following reports of advanced acquisition talks with Eli Lilly & Co. for over $1 billion [9] - Monte Rosa Therapeutics Inc shares increased by 51% to $24.10 after announcing interim data from a Phase 1 clinical study [9] - Datavault AI Inc shares fell by 14% to $1.20 after disclosing a collaboration with a New York City retail destination [9] - Curis Inc shares decreased by 15% to $0.85 after announcing a private placement totaling up to $80.8 million [9] - Bright Minds Biosciences Inc shares dropped by 12% to $82.30 following the announcement of a $100 million public offering [9]

花旗：韩国央行转向"长期按兵不动"，2026年上半年加息基本无望 丹麦银行：挪威国债发行需求料稳健，但维持谨慎立场不变 摩根士丹利：澳大利亚四大银行股2026年估值或回调，降息预期逆转 【机构分析】 ·丹麦银行表示，挪威拟发行150亿至200亿挪威克朗的10年期国债，这进一步印证了该行对挪威债券市 场维持谨慎立场的合理性。尽管面临供应压力加大、外资参与度减弱等挑战，预计本周三的债券拍卖需 求仍将保持稳健。他强调，当前10年期国债的绝对收益率与资产互换利差均优于2025年同期水平，为 2026年债市开局创造了更有利的条件。 ·高盛分析师指出，2026年通胀前景显示，美国经济增长将成为政府债券收益率的主要驱动因素，进一 步强化债券资产的对冲属性。预计2026年底10年期美国国债收益率将升至4.20%（当前为4.16%），日 本10年期国债收益率将回落至2.0%（当前为2.12%），维持区间波动基准判断。 ·摩根士丹利表示，在通胀持续与潜在加息压力下，澳大利亚四大银行股估值或于2026年回调。该行指 出，自2023年底以来，四大行平均市盈率已因降息预期上升约6个基点，但这一趋势将在2026年逆转。 截至2025年1 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 （卓创资讯分析师赵泽泽） 关键字：PMI、钢铁 【导语】从12月钢铁行业PMI以及制造业PMI等数据来看，工业用钢生产下降有限，下游制造业回升， 对于钢铁等需求增加，整体工业用钢市场供需压力缓解，考虑春节前后市场心态、生产等多方面的影 响，预计1月工业用钢市场或重心继续小幅上移。 作为最主要的先行指标，PMI指数对于钢铁行业具有重要的意义，本文尝试通过解析钢铁行业PMI以及 制造业PMI数据来分析钢铁市场1月可能出现的情况。 钢铁PMI情况解析：钢铁行业供需压力继续缓解 从中物联钢铁物流专业委员会调查、发布的钢铁行业PMI来看，2025年12月份为46.30%，环比上期下降 1.7个百分点。从分项指数来看，供应端生产指数由46.00%降至43.70%，生产整体放缓程度继续扩大， 螺纹等建筑用钢生产企业整体减产或相对明显。从间接来看需求端，产成品库存指数下降3.00个百分点 至46.10，库存继续下降；新出口订单41.10%，较上月下降6.10个百分点，在阶段抢出口后，钢材出口 快速下降；新订单指数45.40%，较上期下降3.50个百分点，整体钢 ...

2026年01月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 | 铁矿石：高位反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：市场情绪扰动，盘面宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：市场情绪扰动，盘面宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：市场情绪推涨，盘面震荡抬升 | 5 | | 锰硅：市场情绪推涨，盘面震荡抬升 | 5 | | 焦炭：矛盾积累，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：矛盾积累，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 观点与策略 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 7 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | I 2605 | | 801.0 | 4. 0 | 0. 50% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 640. 868 | 22. 093 | ...

Market Performance - European stocks closed higher, with the pan European Stoxx 600 climbing 0.58% and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 increasing by 1.18% [1] - Several European markets, including Austria, Belgium, and Spain, also recorded gains, while Iceland, Ireland, Poland, and Russia ended weak [2] Company Highlights - Next Plc shares surged 5% after upgrading profit guidance, forecasting after-tax earnings of 738.8 pence per share, driven by a more than 10% surge in sales in December [3] - In the UK market, Fresnillo climbed about 5%, while AstraZeneca, Burberry Group, and several others gained between 3% to 5% [2] - JD Sports Fashion drifted down 4.4%, and Adidas ended lower by about 4.2% following a rating downgrade by Bank of America [4] Sector Performance - In the German market, Daimler Truck Holding gained 5.3%, and Infineon moved up 5% [4] - In France, EssilorLuxottica gained more than 5%, while Edenred and Kering ended higher by about 4.3% and 4%, respectively [5] - Polish parcel locker company shares soared more than 28% after announcing an indicative buyout offer [6] Economic Indicators - The HCOB Composite PMI in Germany decreased to 51.3 in December from 52.4 in November [6] - France's inflation eased to a seven-month low in December, with the consumer price index logging an annual increase of 0.8% [7] - EU harmonized inflation slowed unexpectedly in December to 0.7% from 0.8% in November [8]

Market Performance - France's equity benchmark CAC 40 opened flat but drifted lower, down 49.25 points or 0.6% at 8,162.25 before noon [1] - Notable declines were seen in Legrand and Dassault Systemes, which fell 3.7% and 3.6% respectively, while Capgemini and Saint Gobain lost over 3% [1] Company Movements - BNP Paribas, Hermes International, Schneider Electric, Publicis Groupe, LVMH, Air Liquide, Accor, and Societe Generale experienced losses ranging from 1% to 1.6% [2] - In contrast, Orange and STMicroElectronics gained 2.6% and 2.5% respectively, with Michelin up 1.5% and Thales and Engie gaining 1.2% and 1.1% respectively [2] Economic Indicators - France's inflation eased to a seven-month low in December, attributed to a significant drop in energy prices [2] - The consumer price index (CPI) showed an annual increase of 0.8%, the slowest since May, following a 0.9% rise in November [3] - EU harmonized inflation also unexpectedly slowed to 0.7% in December from 0.8% in November, contrary to forecasts [3] PMI Data - The HCOB France Composite PMI for December was revised to 50.0, indicating stagnant output, with the manufacturing PMI at 50.7 and the Services PMI at 50.1 [4] - The HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI for December was revised to 51.5, down from a flash estimate of 51.9 and November's 30-month high of 52.8 [5]

期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 06 日 铝：继续补涨 氧化铝：小幅下跌 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 23645 | 720 | 1370 | 2180 | 2855 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 24165 | ー | ー | ー | l | LME铝3M收盘价 | 3090 | 93 | 134 | 289 | 468 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 335721 | -51853 | 106372 | 178331 | 242472 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 261132 | 4759 | -29342 | 64692 ...